Are extreme wildfires the new normal?

Summary

Podcast Summary: Are Extreme Wildfires the New Normal?

Short Wave (NPR) — July 29, 2026
Hosts: Regina Barber, Nate Rott
Guest Experts: Zeke Housefather (climate scientist), Lisa Patel (pediatrician & environmental scientist)

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Overview:

This episode of Short Wave dives into the science and lived reality of extreme wildfires: Are they truly becoming more frequent and devastating, or is the story more complicated? Hosts Regina Barber and Nate Rott, drawing on Nate’s reporting and firsthand firefighting experience, break down global wildfire trends, examine causes, and provide practical tips for listeners increasingly impacted by wildfire smoke.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Are Wildfires Increasing Globally? (00:44 – 03:00)

• Common Perception: Many people feel wildfires are worsening everywhere.
• Nuanced Reality:
  • Nate Rott: Globally, wildfires and the overall land burned have actually decreased on average compared to previous decades. “But within those two sentences…there is so much nuance.” (01:19)
  • Regional Trends:
    • Zeke Housefather: In places like North American forests, wildfire area has tripled over 30-40 years, mainly because vegetation is drier and more flammable now.

      “The typical fire burns about three times more area than it did 30 years ago or 40 years ago…” — Zeke Housefather (01:52)

  • Extreme Activity has Spiked: The number of extreme wildfires has more than doubled in the last 20 years.

2. Why are Global Fire Trends Decreasing, but Regional Disasters Increasing? (04:28 – 06:35)

• Breakdown by Vegetation: Global data includes forest fires and faster-burning grasslands/shrublands/savannas, which comprise most of the land burned each year.
• Africa’s Role: Declines in grassland fires across Africa (the world’s largest area for such fires) skew the global totals downward, even as forests burn more intensely elsewhere.
• Europe’s Fires: The spike in European forest fires (France/Spain) may seem like a trend, but proximity to populations and media coverage amplify perception.

  “It might seem like a trend, but it might not necessarily be.” — Nate Rott (06:12)

3. The Link to Climate Change (06:35 – 07:38)

• Temperature as the Driver:
  • Zeke Housefather:

    “Every 1 degree centigrade…in Canada…is associated with an 80% increase in the amount of area burned that year.” (07:03)

  • Canadian fire season has warmed 4 degrees F since the 1960s, leading to exponentially larger fires.

4. Human Approaches to Fires Make it Worse—Especially in North America (07:38 – 09:12)

• Prescribed Burning: Historically, US forests adapted to low-level fires, often set intentionally by Native communities. Since the 1930s, policies have emphasized suppression, leading to underbrush build-up—fuel for catastrophic fires.
• Smokey Bear’s Legacy:

  “Smokey's slogan was great to protect people and homes...but it's not so great to keep fuel levels down in those forests.” — Nate Rott (08:18)

• Boreal Forests (Canada): These massive northern forests are not managed with prescribed burns. While naturally prone to large, infrequent fires, their frequency is now abnormally high due to climate warming.

5. How Often Did Boreal Forests Burn Historically? (09:22 – 09:52)

• Historic Frequency:
  • Large boreal fires happened every 50–200 years.
  • Now, much more frequent due to drier conditions—areas that used to be swamp-like are drying out.

6. What's Changed: Fires & Smoke as “The New Normal” (09:52 – 13:12)

• Changing Geography of Risk: Even historically “safe” places (e.g., the US East Coast) now experience smoke events.
• Air Quality Concerns:

  • Use the Air Quality Index (AQI) as a quick check.

    “It goes from green, where the air pollution isn’t a risk...up to maroon, which means it’s a risk for everybody.” — Nate Rott (10:44)

  • Lisa Patel:

    • AQI guidelines were developed for fossil fuel pollution—not wildfires.
    • “Wildfire smoke is about 10 times as toxic.” (11:38)
    • Wildfire smoke is linked to respiratory emergencies (especially for kids), cancer, heart/lung disease, and dementia.

7. Personal & Community Responses: What Can You Do? (12:06 – 13:56)

• Recommendations:
  • Monitor AQI.
  • Spend more time indoors (though homes, especially older ones, might not be totally airtight).
  • Wear masks outdoors.
  • Recirculate air in cars rather than bringing in air from outside.
  • Use or make DIY air filters (e.g., HEPA filter attached to a box fan).
• Parent’s Dilemma:

  “We’re increasingly having periods of time where it’s not safe for our kids to be outdoors.” — Lisa Patel (12:51)

• Bigger Picture:
  • “We’re not going to be able to put the fire genie back in the bottle…We need to adapt to this world of more and more extreme fires.” — Zeke Housefather (13:12)
  • Still, reducing carbon emissions is essential. Switch to renewables, practice regenerative farming, and increase urban green spaces to help combat the trend.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “Are wildfires increasing globally?” — Regina Barber (01:11)
• “Globally, there are fewer wildfires and less land burning on average…but within those two sentences…there is so much nuance.” — Nate Rott (01:19)
• “The typical fire burns about three times more area than it did 30 years ago or 40 years ago, which is largely driven by changes in conditions. The vegetation is drier, and so when a spark catches, it’s more likely to burn a larger area.” — Zeke Housefather (01:52)
• “Climate change. Don’t know if you’ve heard of it. Small thing happening globally.” — Nate Rott (06:37)
• “Every 1-degree centigrade...is associated with an 80% increase in the amount of area burned that year.” — Zeke Housefather (07:03)
• “Smokey Bear. It’s not Smokey the Bear, Gina. It’s Smokey Bear. Don’t let the Forest Service come after you.” — Nate Rott (08:09)
• “Wildfire smoke is about 10 times as toxic. 10 times as many children showed up to the emergency room with respiratory complaints.” — Lisa Patel (11:38)
• “We’re not going to be able to put the fire genie back in the bottle and return to the climate we had in the 1980s…” — Zeke Housefather (13:12)
• “We all should settle into this new normal, too.” — Nate Rott (13:53)

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• Wildfire trends: global vs. regional: 01:10 – 03:00
• Why global fire area is shrinking: 04:28 – 05:23
• Europe’s media-heavy fires context: 05:23 – 06:12
• Climate change’s impact: 06:35 – 07:38
• The problem with fire suppression: 07:45 – 09:12
• Historic fire frequency in boreal forests: 09:22 – 09:52
• Air quality, health, and family guidance: 10:44 – 13:12
• Living with the new normal & big-picture solutions: 13:12 – 14:01

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Takeaway

Extreme wildfires aren’t new, but they’re becoming more frequent and severe in certain regions—driven by rising temperatures, drought, and decades of suppression practices that let flammable undergrowth build up. While global burned area is down (mostly due to declining fires in African savannas), the threat in forests and the reach of wildfire smoke is escalating. We’ll need adaptation on multiple levels—monitoring air, changing our habits, creating cleaner energy systems—to face this new normal.

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Transcript

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[Regina Barber]

Hey, short waivers. It's Gina here with a request. Follow us on whichever app you're listening from. We love sharing cool and important science stories with you. And following us means you'll always know when our next episode is ready just for you. And guess what? The next episode is ready.

[Narrator]

You're listening to Short Wave from npr.

[Regina Barber]

Hello, short wavers. Regina Barber here with my co host, NPR science correspondent Nate Rott. Hey, Nate.

[Nate Rott]

Hello, Gina.

[Regina Barber]

So, Nate, over the years, you've reported a ton on wildfires and fought some in a previous life, I heard.

[Nate Rott]

Yes, a previous, younger, more lithe life. Yes, that is correct.

[Regina Barber]

Yeah, we're all getting old, Nate.

[Lisa Patel]

Yeah.

[Regina Barber]

And Nate, it seems like a lot of the world is experiencing them right now. Like, fires are happening in France and Spain, Canada, and even Oregon is fighting dozens of fires right now. So with all of your expertise, riddle me this.

[Nate Rott]

Okay.

[Regina Barber]

Is it my imagination or are wildfires increasing globally?

[Nate Rott]

Gina, are you sitting down?

[Regina Barber]

I am, actually. You can see me?

[Nate Rott]

Okay. Yeah, I can. And you are sitting. I just wanted to confirm, for anybody who can't see you, I say, are you sitting? Because overall, there are few fewer wildfires globally and less land burning on average than in the past. But within those two sentences, Gina, there is so much nuance. And so we'll get into that.

[Zeke Housefather]

There's a lot of different regional trends that are underneath that.

[Nate Rott]

Yeah, so that's Zeke Housefather. He's a climate scientist in California, and he says that, for example, in North American forests, like where we are, the trend is definitely more burning.

[Zeke Housefather]

The typical fire burns about three times more area than it did 30 years ago or 40 years ago, which is largely driven by changes in conditions. The vegetation is drier, and so when a spark catches, it's more likely to burn a larger area.

[Nate Rott]

And, Gina, globally, extreme wildfire activity has more than doubled in the last two decades.

[Regina Barber]

That's so much.

[Nate Rott]

Yeah, it's a lot. Which means that in certain areas, there are more fires burning bigger and hotter, which in some cases means more smoke from those fires can travel a very long way and make a beautiful sunset, but muddy up a perfectly normal vacation.

[Regina Barber]

Yeah, which is why we've been seeing smoke here on the east coast, right?

[Nate Rott]

Yeah.

[Regina Barber]

And. And one thing I've been wondering, when it gets hazy, especially having a kid, is like, how much time can I spend outside. And should I even be outside at all? Like, I, I know that there's like an air quality index, but the guidelines seem vague.

[Nate Rott]

Vague is a very diplomatic way of putting it, Gina. And yeah, there's a reason for that. You know, scientists just don't have a lot of long term data on wildfire smoke exposure to give people definitive guidelines, which leaves a lot of people like you and me wondering how to go about their days when there's a lot of smoke in the air.

[Regina Barber]

So today on the show, what to do when the world's on fire, we

[Nate Rott]

talk about the changing wildfire landscape, what's driving the trends, and what you can do about it.

[Regina Barber]

You're listening to Short Wave, the science podcast from npr.

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[Regina Barber]

okay, Nate, so you said earlier that wildfires are actually decreasing globally. This is just wild to me. Like, like, how is that possible?

[Nate Rott]

Yeah, I mean, okay, so when we say wildfires, that includes lots of different types of environments and vegetation. Forests, yes. But also, you know, grasslands and shrublands and savannah. And as anyone who messed around with fireworks as a kid or had a little pyro streak, maybe, like me, you will know that fire burns a lot faster and quicker in lighter vegetation like grasses than it does in, like a forest, right?

[Regina Barber]

Yeah.

[Nate Rott]

So most of the area that burns every year are grasslands, shrublands and savannas, not forests. And so the reason that globally there's less land burned is largely because there's less grasslands and shrublands and savannahs burning mostly in Africa, which you know, is a really big continent. So that brings down the global scale.

[Regina Barber]

I love this. This Is, like, fascinating, these nuances. Okay, so now there's these two pretty bad forest fires in France and Spain. And outside of these fires, is Europe another place where there are fewer fires recently?

[Nate Rott]

Well, honestly, Gina, this is like a really active area of research, like what the trends in wildfire are in Europe. But when our producer, producer Burley McCoy, spoke to Zeke Monday about the current fires, he said the area burned was higher than average for the European Union. So not record setting yet. Of course, that could change. But he said these fires are understandably getting a lot of media attention because there are two big fires burning at the same time near a lot of people. So it might seem like a trend, but it might not necessarily be.

[Regina Barber]

So, I mean, could this be just like a normal fire year for Europe? I remember, like, four years ago, a big fire in Spain. Like, is this just normal?

[Nate Rott]

Yeah, I mean, look, it could be. But, you know, Zeke pointed out that there is a trend that is related to many wildfires today in Europe and North America. Everywhere. The fires that are burning in Spain and France both coincided with an extreme heat wave.

[Regina Barber]

Okay, I see where this is going.

[Nate Rott]

Yeah, climate change. Don't know if you've heard of it. Small thing happening globally.

[Regina Barber]

Yeah, the climate crisis. It's like this cartoon villain, right? It's very predictable.

[Nate Rott]

Yeah, well, unlike a generic cartoon villain, you know, it's not easily vanquished by Captain Planet and his gang of trusted friends. Zeke says that rising temperatures nurture fires that might otherwise just die out. So, like, take Canada, for example.

[Zeke Housefather]

So every 1 degree centigrade, or roughly 2 degrees Fahrenheit, of warming during the fire season in Canada. So May to September is associated with an 80% increase in the amount of area burned that year.

[Regina Barber]

80%. That's a huge jump for just, like a couple of degrees Fahrenheit.

[Nate Rott]

Yeah, it's massive. And he says since the 1960s, the fire season has warmed up about 4 degrees Fahrenheit on average. So that translates to a huge amount of burned area in Canada, because when it's warmer, things just dry out quicker, so there's literally more fuel for the fire.

[Regina Barber]

So doesn't this also have to do with humans not doing, like, prescribed burns to clear the underbrush in the United States?

[Nate Rott]

Yes, that's definitely true. So in many parts of the country, not just the western US Forests are adapted to fire. In many cases, they need it ecologically. And, you know, native communities used fires for centuries to manage forests. But since at least the 1930s, we've been suppressing forest Fires. Putting them out as quickly as we can.

[Regina Barber]

I mean, Nate, only you can prevent forest fires.

[Nate Rott]

Yes. God bless Smokey Bear. It's not Smokey the Bear, Gina. It's Smokey Bear. Don't let the Forest Service come after you.

[Regina Barber]

I had no idea, honestly.

[Nate Rott]

Yeah, and look like Smokey's slogan was great to protect people and homes and, you know, maybe some timber, but it's not so great to keep fuel levels down in those forests.

[Zeke Housefather]

When fires do occur in those forests, there's so much undergrowth that's accumulated that the fires are much more catastrophic. They reach up into the canopy of the trees. They become what we call crown fires that actually kill the trees, rather than what historically has happened in western forests where you have these low level fires that kill the undergrowth but don't reach up and actually kill the trees. The boreal forest is a different beast.

[Nate Rott]

Yeah, and the boreal forests in Canada, the ones that are smoking up parts of the US Right now, those have never needed prescribed burning.

[Zeke Housefather]

In the same way, the boreal forest in Canada is four and a half times the size of Texas. And so historically, when fires burn in those forests, they're just allowed to burn themselves out. You know, they haven't had the same history of fire suppression that we have in the US that has built up fuel.

[Nate Rott]

So what he's kind of saying is it is normal for these big fires to happen in Canada, but what's not normal is how often these huge fires are happening.

[Regina Barber]

So historically, how often is normal for them to burn?

[Nate Rott]

So typically in Canada's western boreal forest, Zeke says big fires would happen, you know, once every 50 to 200 years.

[Regina Barber]

That is not happening right now.

[Nate Rott]

No, it is much more frequent. And when we're talking about boreal forest, you know, for you non ecology nerds out there, you know, we're talking about these dense forests that stretch across the northern hemisphere, and temperatures are rising at higher latitudes faster than they are closer to the equator.

[Zeke Housefather]

What we're seeing now is considerably more frequent fires because these areas that used to be much wetter, you know, much of the northern boreal resembles a swamp, are now much drier because of higher temperatures.

[Nate Rott]

And it's not necessarily that more fires are starting, you know, which in both the US And Canada is often caused by lightning, sometimes caused by people. It's that a warmer climate is creating the conditions for fires to get going and burn a lot more vegetation when they do.

[Regina Barber]

Okay, so I grew up in the Pacific Northwest, and there weren't a lot of Wildfires. And then I had my own kid. And then wildfires and smoke were just part of the summers. And honestly, I thought I was going to just, like, avoid all that and move to the East Coast. And once I'm here, I'm not going to have any of that smoke. But for listeners in the same boat as me, like, now I'm inhaling this smoke. Like, what are the recommendations for staying healthy?

[Nate Rott]

Well, so the biggest piece of advice I could give you, Gina, is to monitor the air quality to figure out your exposure to risk. So, in the US there's an air quality index for how polluted the air is in a certain area. You know, it's based on how many pollutants are in the air, and that includes particulate matter, these tiny little particles that are so small they can get into your bloodstream. You know, there's been a lot of research that shows that it's particularly risky for pregnant people. So I'd highly recommend people use AQI as kind of a quick pulse check to figure out how good the air quality is. It goes from green, where the air pollution isn't a risk to people, all the way up to maroon, which means it's a risk for everybody. And there is limited guidance for, you know, when you should limit outdoor activity, for example. But Lisa Patel, a pediatrician and environmental scientist at Stanford Medicine Children's Health, says it may not be a good enough tool for wildfires.

[Lisa Patel]

These air quality guidelines were built off the burning of fossil fuels. There was a study that was done on children between 0 to 5 that found that wildfire smoke is about 10 times as toxic. 10 times as many children showed up to the emergency room with respiratory complaints.

[Nate Rott]

And it's not just kids. Right. Like, inhaling that smoke can lead to inflammation, which is linked to cancer, to heart and lung disease, and to dementia.

[Regina Barber]

So what else can we do to limit our exposure to wildfire smoke?

[Nate Rott]

Yeah. So spending more time inside, you know, though I should say, you know, staying inside won't totally keep you from being exposed, especially in older homes with a lot of drafts. But, you know, staying inside is one piece of advice. Wearing a mask when you go outside, recirculating the air in your car, you know, so you're not sucking air directly from outside into the car. And using an air filter indoors goes a long way. Lisa says you can make one with a HEPA filter duct taped to a box fan. I've actually been to places where they're doing this. In Missoula, where I grew up, they are creating them for people that can't afford air filters in their house. When it comes to this bigger, you know, staying inside part that we're talking about, Lisa knows that advice might be tough to hear.

[Lisa Patel]

I'm a parent myself. My kids were 2 and 5 when and we were in the middle of pandemic. What we are in is a situation where, and it is sad for me to say, I grieve about it when I have to say it, but we're increasingly having periods of time where it's not safe for our kids to be outdoors.

[Nate Rott]

But she also says this is part of our new normal, which is what I also heard from Zeke.

[Zeke Housefather]

Like, we're not going to be able to put the, the fair genie back in the bottle and return to the climate we had in the 1980s, at least not anytime in the next few centuries. So it's not a good news story. But I also don't want to let people off the hook, you know, we need to adapt to this world of more and more extreme fires, you know,

[Nate Rott]

but both Zeke and Lisa emphasize the thing that people can do is reduce their emissions. Right. Which is going to stop the problem from getting even worse, you know, so that means things like switching to renewable energy, regenerative farming practices, and, you know, making more urban green space to cool down cities, you know. But sadly, we all should settle into this new normal, too.

[Regina Barber]

And more inside time, I guess.

[Nate Rott]

Yeah.

[Regina Barber]

Nate, thank you so much for bringing us this reporting.

[Nate Rott]

Yeah, happy to do it.

[Regina Barber]

This episode was produced and co reported by Burley McCoy. It was edited by a showrunner, Rebecca Ramirez, and fact checked by Tyler Jones.

[Nate Rott]

The audio engineer was Robert Rodriguez. Special thanks to science correspondent Alejandra Barunda for her guidance. I'm Nate Rott.

[Regina Barber]

And I'm Regina Barber. Thank you so much for listening to Short Wave from npr.

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