Podcast Summary: Short Wave – “Is The Quantum Future Here?”

Air Date: December 15, 2025
Hosts: Emily Kwong, Kadia Riddle | Guest Expert: Bill Pfefferman (University of Chicago) | Additional Commentary: Karina Chow (Google Quantum AI)

Overview

This episode of NPR’s Short Wave delves into the current state and future promise of quantum computing. Hosts Emily Kwong and Kadia Riddle investigate what quantum computing really is, examine this year’s breakthroughs in the field (including a Nobel Prize), survey industry and government interest, and ask whether quantum’s revolutionary potential is about to reshape our everyday lives – or still years (or decades) away.

Key Discussion Points

1. The Quantum Hype: Is the Future Here?

• Quantum physics and computing have dominated science news in 2025, moving from theoretical sci-fi turf to “usefulness” in real-life (IRL) contexts.
• Kadia highlights government and industry investments, even as other areas of science face funding cuts ([01:14]-[01:52]):
  • “Quantum computing and science is one of two things that [the Trump administration has] pledged to preserve funding in, along with AI.” – Kadia Riddle ([01:32])
  • Multi-billion-dollar investments originate both from governments (U.S., China) and tech giants like Google.

2. Breakthroughs and Milestones in 2025

• Google’s “quantum advantage”: In 2025, Google claims verification of quantum advantage, using their new Willow chip ([02:06]-[02:35]).
• Nobel Prize in Physics: Awarded to John Clark, Michel Devoret, and John Martinez for proving quantum tunneling, a principle vital to today’s advancements ([02:43]-[03:16]).

Notable quote:

“The 2025 physics Nobel was awarded jointly…for their work proving a concept called quantum mechanical tunneling.” – Kadia Riddle ([02:43])

3. What IS Quantum Computing?

Definitions and Metaphors

• Quantum physics involves the behavior of subatomic particles (electrons, photons) that act in “consistently weird” ways, like superposition – existing in multiple states at once ([05:53]-[07:00]).
• “Superposition means that particles could be doing many things at once.” – Emily Kwong ([06:53])
• Quantum computers use “qubits,” which are analogous to light switches with dimmers – representing many combinations simultaneously, as opposed to binary on/off ([08:05]-[09:26]):
  • “Quantum computers think in shades of gray.” – Bill Pfefferman ([08:44])
  • This “parallelism” is why quantum excites so many scientists.

4. Real-World Applications & Constraints

Where’s My Quantum Laptop?

• Quantum computers are currently huge and cold: Refrigerator-sized, with internal temperatures lower than outer space ([09:41]-[10:04]).
• Hype vs. Reality: Many hope quantum will simulate molecular interactions (potentially curing diseases, designing materials, optimizing logistics), but practical applications remain distant ([10:12]-[10:58]).

Grounded Skepticism

• Expert Bill Pfefferman provides reality checks:
  • “We’ve not yet seen a quantum experiment that both solves a problem that’s provably hard and is also independently useful for society.” ([10:58])
  • The field is in its infancy – real-world problem-solving is likely years away.

5. Google’s “Quantum Supremacy” & Community Debate ([11:25]-[12:31])

• Google claims their chip solved a problem in minutes that would take conventional supercomputers 10,000 years ([12:08]). IBM quickly countered, arguing a classical computer could do the same in days, sparking debate over the significance of these milestones.

  • “Some people disputed this claim. IBM … showed that they had a classical computer solve it in a couple days. Google stands by their claim.” – Kadia Riddle ([12:31])

6. Why Put Money Into Quantum Computing?

• Governments and tech giants are still investing because every “milestone” is an occasion for deeper scrutiny and learning ([13:01]-[13:22]).
  • “It's not a failure. Actually, these, these claims, it’s not clear at all that they’re—they’re not correct when they come out.” – Bill Pfefferman ([13:17])

7. Quantum’s Real Timeline: Hope & Uncertainty

• Pfefferman balances skepticism with excitement:
  • In 2014, his field was “science fiction experiments.” Now, tangible progress is real, but payoff timelines remain unpredictable ([13:36]-[13:48]).
  • “The potential is huge, beyond what we can even imagine right now. But no one knows when we’ll see that potential deliver into real world applications. Could be five years, could be 50, could be something in between.” – Kadia Riddle ([13:55])

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments (Timestamps)

• “The wild part is they don’t follow the same rules as the stuff that we can see. Their behavior is weird, but it’s consistently weird.” – Kadia Riddle ([05:59])
• “Quantum computers think in shades of gray.” – Bill Pfefferman ([08:44])
• “It’s like a giant onion with a tiny 1-2-cm chip at the very heart of it.” – Kadia Riddle ([10:04])
• “We’ve not yet seen a quantum experiment that both solves a problem that’s provably hard and is also independently useful for society.” – Bill Pfefferman ([10:58])
• “The potential is huge, beyond what we can even imagine right now. But no one knows when we’ll see that potential deliver… could be five years, could be 50, could be something in between.” – Kadia Riddle ([13:55])

Segment Timestamps

• [01:08] – Introduction to today’s topic with Kadia Riddle
• [02:06] – Google’s demonstration of quantum advantage
• [02:35] – Willow chip and Nobel Prize discussion
• [05:53] – Recap: What is quantum physics?
• [08:05] – Light switch metaphor for quantum computing (with Bill Pfefferman)
• [10:31] – Realism: Quantum’s promise vs. current possibilities
• [10:58] – Bill Pfefferman’s expert skepticism
• [11:59] – Google/IBM “quantum supremacy” controversy
• [13:55] – Bottom line on predictions—when will it matter?

Tone & Style

• Conversational & Creative: Frequent jokes and pop culture references (e.g., “I love consistently weird” [06:16]; “quantum leap with us today” [14:09]; “I love the movie Ant-Man” [06:16])
• Accessible & Honest: Clearly explains technical concepts, but also transparent about unanswered questions and timeline uncertainty.

Bottom Line

Quantum computing’s future is bright—but indeterminately so. The technology has made real scientific strides, justifying continuous investment. However, its revolutionary promise for everyday life remains elusive, with experts projecting a payoff at some indeterminate time—“five years, fifty, or something in between.” The journey beyond the “quantum hype” continues.

For further listening:
Check out Short Wave’s episode on Quantum Clocks (see show notes).