Is The Quantum Future Here?

Summary

Podcast Summary: Short Wave – “Is The Quantum Future Here?”

Air Date: December 15, 2025
Hosts: Emily Kwong, Kadia Riddle | Guest Expert: Bill Pfefferman (University of Chicago) | Additional Commentary: Karina Chow (Google Quantum AI)

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Overview

This episode of NPR’s Short Wave delves into the current state and future promise of quantum computing. Hosts Emily Kwong and Kadia Riddle investigate what quantum computing really is, examine this year’s breakthroughs in the field (including a Nobel Prize), survey industry and government interest, and ask whether quantum’s revolutionary potential is about to reshape our everyday lives – or still years (or decades) away.

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Key Discussion Points

1. The Quantum Hype: Is the Future Here?

• Quantum physics and computing have dominated science news in 2025, moving from theoretical sci-fi turf to “usefulness” in real-life (IRL) contexts.
• Kadia highlights government and industry investments, even as other areas of science face funding cuts ([01:14]-[01:52]):
  • “Quantum computing and science is one of two things that [the Trump administration has] pledged to preserve funding in, along with AI.” – Kadia Riddle ([01:32])
  • Multi-billion-dollar investments originate both from governments (U.S., China) and tech giants like Google.

2. Breakthroughs and Milestones in 2025

• Google’s “quantum advantage”: In 2025, Google claims verification of quantum advantage, using their new Willow chip ([02:06]-[02:35]).
• Nobel Prize in Physics: Awarded to John Clark, Michel Devoret, and John Martinez for proving quantum tunneling, a principle vital to today’s advancements ([02:43]-[03:16]).

Notable quote:

“The 2025 physics Nobel was awarded jointly…for their work proving a concept called quantum mechanical tunneling.” – Kadia Riddle ([02:43])

3. What IS Quantum Computing?

Definitions and Metaphors

• Quantum physics involves the behavior of subatomic particles (electrons, photons) that act in “consistently weird” ways, like superposition – existing in multiple states at once ([05:53]-[07:00]).
• “Superposition means that particles could be doing many things at once.” – Emily Kwong ([06:53])
• Quantum computers use “qubits,” which are analogous to light switches with dimmers – representing many combinations simultaneously, as opposed to binary on/off ([08:05]-[09:26]):
  • “Quantum computers think in shades of gray.” – Bill Pfefferman ([08:44])
  • This “parallelism” is why quantum excites so many scientists.

4. Real-World Applications & Constraints

Where’s My Quantum Laptop?

• Quantum computers are currently huge and cold: Refrigerator-sized, with internal temperatures lower than outer space ([09:41]-[10:04]).
• Hype vs. Reality: Many hope quantum will simulate molecular interactions (potentially curing diseases, designing materials, optimizing logistics), but practical applications remain distant ([10:12]-[10:58]).

Grounded Skepticism

• Expert Bill Pfefferman provides reality checks:
  • “We’ve not yet seen a quantum experiment that both solves a problem that’s provably hard and is also independently useful for society.” ([10:58])
  • The field is in its infancy – real-world problem-solving is likely years away.

5. Google’s “Quantum Supremacy” & Community Debate ([11:25]-[12:31])

• Google claims their chip solved a problem in minutes that would take conventional supercomputers 10,000 years ([12:08]). IBM quickly countered, arguing a classical computer could do the same in days, sparking debate over the significance of these milestones.

  • “Some people disputed this claim. IBM … showed that they had a classical computer solve it in a couple days. Google stands by their claim.” – Kadia Riddle ([12:31])

6. Why Put Money Into Quantum Computing?

• Governments and tech giants are still investing because every “milestone” is an occasion for deeper scrutiny and learning ([13:01]-[13:22]).
  • “It's not a failure. Actually, these, these claims, it’s not clear at all that they’re—they’re not correct when they come out.” – Bill Pfefferman ([13:17])

7. Quantum’s Real Timeline: Hope & Uncertainty

• Pfefferman balances skepticism with excitement:
  • In 2014, his field was “science fiction experiments.” Now, tangible progress is real, but payoff timelines remain unpredictable ([13:36]-[13:48]).
  • “The potential is huge, beyond what we can even imagine right now. But no one knows when we’ll see that potential deliver into real world applications. Could be five years, could be 50, could be something in between.” – Kadia Riddle ([13:55])

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments (Timestamps)

• “The wild part is they don’t follow the same rules as the stuff that we can see. Their behavior is weird, but it’s consistently weird.” – Kadia Riddle ([05:59])
• “Quantum computers think in shades of gray.” – Bill Pfefferman ([08:44])
• “It’s like a giant onion with a tiny 1-2-cm chip at the very heart of it.” – Kadia Riddle ([10:04])
• “We’ve not yet seen a quantum experiment that both solves a problem that’s provably hard and is also independently useful for society.” – Bill Pfefferman ([10:58])
• “The potential is huge, beyond what we can even imagine right now. But no one knows when we’ll see that potential deliver… could be five years, could be 50, could be something in between.” – Kadia Riddle ([13:55])

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Segment Timestamps

• [01:08] – Introduction to today’s topic with Kadia Riddle
• [02:06] – Google’s demonstration of quantum advantage
• [02:35] – Willow chip and Nobel Prize discussion
• [05:53] – Recap: What is quantum physics?
• [08:05] – Light switch metaphor for quantum computing (with Bill Pfefferman)
• [10:31] – Realism: Quantum’s promise vs. current possibilities
• [10:58] – Bill Pfefferman’s expert skepticism
• [11:59] – Google/IBM “quantum supremacy” controversy
• [13:55] – Bottom line on predictions—when will it matter?

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Tone & Style

• Conversational & Creative: Frequent jokes and pop culture references (e.g., “I love consistently weird” [06:16]; “quantum leap with us today” [14:09]; “I love the movie Ant-Man” [06:16])
• Accessible & Honest: Clearly explains technical concepts, but also transparent about unanswered questions and timeline uncertainty.

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Bottom Line

Quantum computing’s future is bright—but indeterminately so. The technology has made real scientific strides, justifying continuous investment. However, its revolutionary promise for everyday life remains elusive, with experts projecting a payoff at some indeterminate time—“five years, fifty, or something in between.” The journey beyond the “quantum hype” continues.

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For further listening:
Check out Short Wave’s episode on Quantum Clocks (see show notes).

Transcript

[Sponsor/Advertisement Voice]

This message comes from Somni, the award winning smart sleep headband aimed at helping you fall asleep and stay asleep with neurotechnology developed by UC Berkeley scientists including Dr. Matt Walker. Try 45 days risk [e-mail] hey, shortwavers, Emily Kwong here.

[Emily Kwong]

So the last Tuesday of every month is Nature Quest. That's the segment where we take one of your questions about the environment, how it's changing and investigate it. We've talked about why flowers are blooming early, how live with extreme heat, why all the mosquitoes, what is manageretreat? And we are looking for more questions for Future episodes in 2026. So if you're wondering what's going on with planet Earth and the bugs and the birds and the bees around you, email [e-mail] give your name, your location, your question. Bonus points if you record your question as a voice memo. Thanks so much. You're listening to Shortwave from npr. Hey, shortwavers, Emily Kwong here. And today I am joined by NPR science correspondent Kadia Riddle. Hey, Kadia.

[Kadia Riddle]

Hi, Emily.

[Emily Kwong]

Hi. Okay, today we're talking about quantum, which is one of my favorite topics in science.

[Kadia Riddle]

Yeah, quantum science and computing. I think it's safe to say they came up often in Science News in 2025. Yeah, it used to be a concept that we heard about, you know, like in sci fi. But this year scientists have been talking about its utility irl.

[Emily Kwong]

Okay, quantum in real life. How so?

[Kadia Riddle]

Well, for one thing, despite all the slashing and burning the Trump administration has done around science investments this year, quantum computing and science is one of two things that they've pledged to preserve funding in along with AI.

[Emily Kwong]

Yes, AI for sure, too. When it comes to quantum, there's also been a ton of investment from tech companies, right?

[Kadia Riddle]

Yeah, exactly. Billions of dollars, both from our government and from China's government as well. Well, as tech companies. Google, for example, continues to tout breakthroughs that they've made something called quantum supremacy or quantum advantage.

[Emily Kwong]

Today, Google quantum AI is unveiling the first demonstration of verifiable quantum advantage, a critical step that transforms quantum computing from being science into doing science.

[Sponsor/Advertisement Voice]

Wow.

[Emily Kwong]

That little ding at the end really sells it. Quantum advantage.

[Kadia Riddle]

They have been bragging a lot about this new quant quantum computing chip they have called Willow, which they say is an indicator of real progress in the field.

[Emily Kwong]

Yeah, let's talk about the progress of the field because the Nobel Prize this year, one of them had to do with working quantum Mechanics.

[Kadia Riddle]

Right. So 2025 physics Nobel was awarded jointly to John Clark, Michel Devoret, and John Martinez for their work proving a concept called quantum mechanical tunneling.

[Emily Kwong]

What is quantum mechanical tunneling?

[Kadia Riddle]

So it's a fundamental concept of quantum that particles can tunnel their way through barriers that by the conventional rules of physics, they shouldn't be able to penetrate. The work happened a few decades ago, but many people now credit it with laying the foundation for advancements in quantum that have happened since then.

[Emily Kwong]

One thing, Katie, I'm wondering, when is quantum gonna be a part of my life? Like, what can it do for regular folks?

[Kadia Riddle]

Yeah. What have you done for me lately? Quantum? Once you get past the question of what it actually is, the next logical question when will it actually pay off? We hear that quantum science and engineering can one day help do things like cure diseases or design new materials or optimize things like traffic or supply chains or use cases that we can't even fathom right now. I talked to a lot of scientists for this story about this question, and even the ones who are working on the front lines of this field are really managing expectations, both theirs and ours.

[Emily Kwong]

On that question today on the show, is the future really quantum? And if so, when we go beyond.

[Kadia Riddle]

The quantum hype to get a sense of where the science really is.

[Emily Kwong]

You're listening to Shortwave, the science podcast from npr.

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[Emily Kwong]

Okay, Katia, let us start with quantum physics itself. Can you remind me what that is?

[Kadia Riddle]

Right. Quantum is the physics of the smallest things. Electrons, photons, other subatomic particles. The wild part is they don't follow the same rules as the stuff that we can see. Their behavior is weird, but it's consistently weird.

[Emily Kwong]

I love consistently weird. And I love the movie Ant man, whose plot was very dependent on this.

[Kadia Riddle]

I have not seen it, but now I want to.

[Emily Kwong]

You should. It's really good. What is an example of how subatomic particles behave in weird ways?

[Kadia Riddle]

One of the concepts you hear a lot is superposition. That means a particle that can be in multiple potential states. States at once. You've heard of Schrodinger's cat Dead and Alive. Like, the universe hasn't decided if the cat is dead or alive until the box containing the cat is open. It's a cloud of probabilities.

[Emily Kwong]

Right. And in the world of quantum, it means superposition means that particles could be doing many things at once.

[Kadia Riddle]

Right. And this is a concept that's been around for a while, almost as long as the whole field that was established a hundred years ago, around the time of Niels Bohr and Einstein.

[Emily Kwong]

What does this have to do with quantum computing? How does that fit together?

[Kadia Riddle]

Yeah. So what I've been talking about is quantum physics. The idea with quantum computers is that they can actually use these behaviors. We humans like to think we're smart, but nature is still much better than us at innovation. If you can harness quantum to use in computing, then we can accurately simulate the behavior of molecules and subatomic particles.

[Sponsor/Advertisement Voice]

Yeah.

[Emily Kwong]

How does that compare to classical computing paradigms?

[Kadia Riddle]

Classical computers use bits, zeros, and ones. Everything your computer does is just a big pattern of those. Quantum computing thinks in something called qubits, which can be 0 and 1 at the same time in a probabilistic sense. That's back to that superposition idea. Right.

[Emily Kwong]

This is why people say quantum computers can try out a lot of possibilities all at once.

[Kadia Riddle]

Exactly. I went on a mission to find a metaphor to explain quantum computing. And first of all, let me say there is no perfect metaphor. But one that I got that was kind of helpful from Dominic Walleman, he's a physicist, is light switches.

[Bill Pfefferman]

So if you've got a bunch of light switches that turn a bunch of lights on and off all the time. That's like a normal computer in binary. It's in one state at a time.

[Kadia Riddle]

So say you're trying to get your house lit just right. You might try different combinations of lights, on, off, and in different rooms until you get it just right. But quantum computers obey different rules. Quantum computers think in shades of gray.

[Bill Pfefferman]

It's kind of like all of the lights are on, but on a dimmer switch.

[Kadia Riddle]

So instead of checking every combination of lights one by one, like a classical computer, a quantum computer can represent all those combinations at once as probabilities. So say you have 20 light switches. Some are on and some are off. That's like a classical computer. In a quantum computer, you would instead have 20 light switches with dimmers, all set to varying degrees of brightness. Now, this does not mean that quantum computers instantly solve everything, but that potential parallelism in problem solving is why people are so excited.

[Emily Kwong]

Very cool. Very cool. Because it's just processing so many things in parallel, it's significantly more efficient at problem solving. Question, what do quantum computers actually look like? Because I can't just swap out my laptop for one.

[Kadia Riddle]

No. That's going to be a long time until that happens. Right now, they're huge, like the size of a refrigerator. Secondly, they are cold. Colder than some places in space. Inside of them is equipment like microwave wires, shielding layers, filters, and then at the very bottom is quantum processor, which carries signals down to the quantum chip.

[Emily Kwong]

The quantum chip is what's at the heart of all of this.

[Kadia Riddle]

Yes, exactly. It's like a giant onion with a tiny 1-2-cm chip at the very heart of it. That's. That's all.

[Additional Sponsor/Advertisement Voice]

Mm.

[Emily Kwong]

Very different than today's computers. All right, so on the matter of expectations, we have heard a lot of big dreams coming from the tech world regarding quantum. That it will cure diseases, solve traffic, design new batteries. How realistic are those?

[Kadia Riddle]

Yes. So many scientists genuinely believe quantum computing could help with things like simulating molecules or developing new materials, because those problems are just incredibly complex, too complex for classical computers. But. But another guy I talked to, Bill Pfefferman, he's focused his life's work on quantum physics, and he's pretty skeptical about its actual usefulness.

[Bill Pfefferman]

While I think there's been a lot of exciting progress toward building large scale quantum computers, one thing that's super important to realize is that we've not yet seen a quantum experiment that both solves a problem that's provably hard and also is independently useful for society.

[Kadia Riddle]

Oh, Bill is a computer scientist. At University of Chicago. He says the field is still just very early. We don't have quantum computers that can do useful real world tasks yet.

[Emily Kwong]

Wait, so then where are all these milestones coming from that we hear about from folks like Google?

[Kadia Riddle]

Right. Before we can use quantum computing to, for example, cure cancer, we have to make sure that quantum computers we have are accurate. That is a really, really hard task. We talked about this idea of quantum supremacy. That's the idea that a quantum computer solves a problem through faster than any classical computer could in a reasonable amount of time.

[Emily Kwong]

Yeah. And that's what Google is claiming to have done with their computer chip.

[Kadia Riddle]

Yes, Google is claiming to. With their computer chip. I talked to Karina Chow, she's the COO at Google Quantum AI, and they make this claim.

[Emily Kwong]

So Google demonstrated this on a Quantum chip in 2019. It showed. All right, on our best quantum chip would take a couple of minutes to solve this random circuit sampling benchmark problem, and it would take 10,000 years on the world's best supercomputer. Okay, so they solved a problem that would have taken a normal computer 10,000 years accurately. That is the breakthrough.

[Kadia Riddle]

Well, it depends on who you talk to. It would be. But some people disputed this claim. IBM came out shortly afterward and showed that they had a classical computer solve it in a couple days. Google stands by their claim. They argue it still did show quantum supremacy at the time. So it's debatable how significant these milestones are or when they'll yield something useful. So basically, real progress, unclear payoff timeline.

[Emily Kwong]

But then why does the US Government and tech companies keep pouring money into this field if it has not yielded anything major yet?

[Kadia Riddle]

That is something I talked to Bill Pfefferman about. He again, is the number one skeptic. But, but he underscored that these claims by Google and others, they are milestones.

[Bill Pfefferman]

It's not a failure. Actually, these, these claims, it's not clear at all that they're. They're not correct when they come out.

[Kadia Riddle]

His point was this is how science works. We invent something, we kick the tires, we keep inventing. He started in this field in 2014 after he got his PhD, and here's where it was. At that time, we thought we were.

[Bill Pfefferman]

Working on sort of, you know, science fiction experiments. Like, we didn't think that this would ever come close to fruition.

[Kadia Riddle]

So amid his skepticism is genuine excitement for Quantum's future.

[Emily Kwong]

So bottom line, if I'm telling a friend about quantum computing, what is the best, most accurate thing to say right?

[Kadia Riddle]

Now there's consensus that the potential is huge, beyond what we can even imagine right now. But no one knows when we'll see that potential delay deliver into real world applications. Could be five years, could be 50, could be something in between.

[Emily Kwong]

Katie or Riddle, thank you for taking the quantum leap with us today.

[Kadia Riddle]

Anytime, Emily.

[Emily Kwong]

If you enjoyed this episode, Shortwavers, follow us on the platform you're listening to and check out our episode on Quantum Clocks. We'll link it in the show notes. This episode was Produced by Burley McCoy. It was edited by our showrunner, Rebecca Ramirez, and fact checked by Tyler Jones. Kwesi Lee was the audio engineer. Beth Donovan is our vice president of podcasting. I'm Emily Kwong. Thank you for listening to Short Wave from npr.

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