E (2:50)

The following message come from Edward Jones. What does it mean to live a rich life? It means brave first leaps, tearful goodbyes and everything in between with over 100 years of experience navigating the ups and downs of the market and of life. And your Edward Jones financial advisor will be there to help you move ahead with confidence. Because with all you've done to find your rich, they'll do all they can to help you keep enjoying it. EDWARD Jones, Member, SIPC this message is sponsored by dsw, the birthplace of the humble brag, full of all kinds of shoes that get you at prices that get your budget. And when there are never ending options for every style, mood, occasion and budget, there is unlimited freedom to play. And that's something to brag about. So go ahead, stock up on fresh sneakers from your favorite brands or try those boots you always secretly knew you could pull off. Find the shoes that get you at prices that get your budget. Dsw let them surprise you.

B (3:53)

It is Nature Quest Day. This is my favorite segment. It's our monthly segment that brings you a question from a short waver who's noticing a change in the world around them. And we've brought on one of the best, Rebecca Hersher, climate reporter at npr. Okay, Becky, let's start with the first bit of Peter's question about sea level rise. Is there scientific consensus about how high the water will get?

C (4:14)

An excellent question and a fun one to answer because the answer is yes.

B (4:19)

Well, I guess that's it then. That's the episode. Okay, you've been listening to shortwave from npr.

C (4:25)

Can you imagine we just end the.

B (4:26)

Episode, get out of here.

C (4:29)

Yeah, if only. If we're that simple. So basically the answer is yes, Scientists have a really good idea of how much sea levels will rise in the next three decades or so. Okay. And I'm going to give you some concrete numbers because just from listening to Peter, I kind of get the feeling that that is what he's yearning for.

B (4:47)

Me too.

C (4:48)

Yeah. Okay, so let's start really big picture. Globally, the oceans are about 9 inches higher today than they were in the 1880s. So that's the worldwide average for all the oceans everywhere. And sea level rise is accelerating. So by 2050, sea levels are projected to be about 15 inches higher than they were in the 1880s. Again, that's the global average, the whole planet.

B (5:13)

How sure are scientists about those numbers?

C (5:15)

They're really sure. So 2050 is actually pretty soon in Scientific terms. And it takes time for the planet to react to the extra heat that humans have trapped in the atmosphere. So. So even if humans totally stopped burning oil and gas and coal today, there would be a lag while all that extra heat dissipated and the glacier stopped melting. And that lag would take decades.

B (5:38)

So this is all happening for sure, the next 25 years.

C (5:43)

Yeah, there's just, there's not a lot of scientific uncertainty about what's happening in the couple decades between now and 2050.

B (5:49)

Which means I guess scientists can be more confident.

C (5:52)

Indeed.

B (5:53)

So I'm hearing an average of about 15 inches of sea level rise globally by, by 2050. It's good for planning, imagining the future of different shorelines. But what about specifically in Santa Cruz where Peter lives?

C (6:04)

Right, yes. So let's zoom in. Scientists expect about 1 foot of sea level rise in that area by 2050 compared to the year 2000. So that's a little less than the global average.

B (6:15)

Why less? Is it something about how Santa Cruz is situated that makes it that way?

C (6:19)

Not particularly. It's just sort of how the math. Maths when you look at Santa Cruz in the context of the whole planet.

B (6:25)

Gotcha.

C (6:26)

So again, there's not a lot of uncertainty about that number though. Like with any prediction about the future, there's going to be a range. So we don't know exactly how much planet warming pollution people are going to emit in the next couple decades. But okay, so there's not a huge range. So for the sea level rise in Santa Cruz, what about going up to 2050, the low end of that range is a little less than a half a foot high in just scientists, one foot. And so when we say there's a lot of certainty, that's what we're talking about, you know, compared to feel confident. So that's a sea level rise in that area about a foot by 2050, plus or minus a few inches.

B (7:00)

Honestly, it's really nice to hear about something where there's not a lot of uncertainty. You know, there's so many science stories out there about what we don't know yet, the mysteries. But this sounds altogether not that mysterious.

C (7:11)

Yeah, it's really not that mysterious. We know a lot about. Right. At least sea level rising short term science is very well understood about one.

B (7:18)

Well, let's talk about the second piece of question. Not everyone lives in Santa Cruz, California rising faster in other parts of the.

C (7:27)

U.S. yeah, there is variation. So here are some more numbers. You ready? So remember, in Santa Cruz there will be about a foot of sea level rise by 2050. In Seattle, it's less than a foot. In that same time period in Annapolis, Maryland, it's about a foot and a half.

B (7:47)

Oh, close to where I live.

C (7:48)

Yeah. In Galveston, Texas, upwards of two feet. And in New Orleans, it's almost two and a half feet. So it really varies depending on where you live in the US.

B (8:06)

Again, like, why? It just doesn't make sense to me intuitively. Like, glaciers are melting. That should put extra water in the ocean. So why wouldn't the water just rise the same amount everywhere?

C (8:17)

So, first of all, just one thing to note here. It's not just glaciers and ice caps that are melting that drive sea level rise. It's that the ocean water is absorbing most of the extra heat that's trapped by carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. And when water absorbs heat, it expands, it gets bigger.

B (8:35)

Right.

C (8:35)

Space. Yeah, we've talked about this before on shortwave. And that's also a big driver of sea level rise around the world. So, anyway, I just had to mention that before we go any further, but going back to your question, why do different places have such different amounts of sea level rise? Because I don't think I've fixed that problem.

B (8:50)

Well, just because melting ice and expanding water both seem like they'd affect every part of the planet somewhat equally.

C (8:56)

Yes, exactly. So I called up one of the top sea level rise scientists to talk about this.

D (9:02)

My name is Ben Hamlington. I am a research scientist at the NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory. I'm also team lead of the NASA Sea level change team.

B (9:10)

Oh, cool.

D (9:10)

And I study pretty much everything to do with sea level science and coastal impact.

C (9:15)

So the first thing Ben pointed out is that the ocean is not static. It's not like a bucket of water. It has currents moving through it.

D (9:23)

It's definitely not a bathtub. So it's not like it's just going up and down as though you're filling up a bathtub with a faucet.

C (9:29)

So depending on where you are relative to ocean currents, you might see more rapid or less rapid sea level rise. And actually, if you live very close to an ice sheet, like in Greenland, for example, you experience less sea level rise. And that's basically because of how the water moves and also how the land that's under the ice changes as the ice melts.

B (9:48)

Wait, that's really counterintuitive. So you're saying the closer you are to the melting ice that's causing sea level rise, the less sea level rise you personally experience?

C (9:58)

Yeah, the Earth is Very weird and wonderful at times, clearly.

B (10:03)

So the reason different places in the US Are experiencing more or less sea level rise is because of ocean currents and how close you are to melting ice.

C (10:14)

Yeah. Those are two of the reasons. But in the US there's actually a third reason that's even more important, and that's about how the land itself is moving. So let's do a thought experiment. Emily Kwong, are you ready?

B (10:27)

I'm ready.

C (10:27)

Imagine. Imagine. Close your eyes. Imagine.

B (10:30)

Yeah.

C (10:31)

Imagine that you live in a house next to the ocean.

B (10:34)

I wanted to before this story, but go on.

C (10:37)

Yes. And your front door is one foot higher than the water. Okay. If the water rises one foot, you get wet.

B (10:45)

Yeah.

C (10:46)

Right. If the land sinks one foot, you are also wet. If the water rises six inches and the land sinks six inches, you're still wet.

D (10:56)

That movement of land really does contribute to differences along the coastlines of the U.S. so, for example, on the Gulf coast of the U.S. where we have oil extraction, removal of things from underground, we actually cause the land to sink a little bit.

B (11:12)

So it's either the sea's gonna rise to you, or you're gonna lower to the sea.

C (11:16)

Yeah. So when you combine the sea sinking land with the rising water, effectively what you get is faster sea level rise. And in fact, Ben says the Gulf coast of the US has some of the highest sea level rise rates in the world because of this.

B (11:32)

That's fascinating. Okay. And I feel like some people must be listening to this. I certainly am. And I'm wondering about my own home. Is there a way to find out how much sea level rise is predicted for your town?

C (11:44)

Yes. So there are lots of different resources out there on the Internet, including from local governments, but actually, almost all of them use the same source material. And you can just go to that source, which is called the sea level rise viewer. Ben Hamlington, the scientist you heard from, worked on it, and we'll put a link in the show notes.

B (12:02)

Sea level rise viewer. I'm gonna check it out. Becky, in the meantime, is there anything that can be done to slow sea level rise, especially beyond 2050?

C (12:10)

Yeah, definitely. This actually goes back to the uncertainty piece we were talking about before. You know, sea level rise in the next few decades is pretty unavoidable. Like cutting greenhouse gas emissions wouldn't make a big difference right away, but that doesn't mean it's useless to pivot to cleaner energy. If humans stopped pumping planet warming pollution into the atmosphere now, sea level rise after 2050 would be a lot less severe. So just by using sources of energy like solar and wind, sources that don't emit as many greenhouse gases, we can still avoid really catastrophic amounts of sea level rise. And we're talking, you know, three, four, even 10ft higher than the ocean is today. That kind of extreme sea level rise will happen if we do nothing and let all the ice sheets melt. But our choices today can avoid that.

B (12:59)

Rebecca Hersher, NPR Climate Correspondent, thank you for coming on shortwave. Thanks and thank you, Peter, for the great question. Shortwavers if you have a question about changes in your environment, please email us@shortwavepr.org and we'll consider it for a future Nature Quest episode. This series comes out the last Tuesday of every month. This episode was produced by Hannah Chin. It was edited by our showrunner, Rebecca Ramirez and Burleigh McCoy. Tyler Jones checked the facts. Jimmy Keeley was the audio engineer, Sam Poulson wrote and composed our Nature Quest theme music. Beth Donovan is our senior director and Colin Campbell is our senior vice president of podcasting strategy. I'm Emily Kwong. Thanks for listening to short wave from NPR.

E (13:52)

This message comes from LinkedIn ads One of the hardest parts about B2B marketing is reaching the right audience. That's why you need LinkedIn ads. You can target your buyers by job title, company role, seniority and skills. All the professionals you need to reach in one place. Get a $250 credit on your campaign so you can try it yourself. Just go to LinkedIn.com results. That's LinkedIn.com results. Terms and conditions apply only on LinkedIn ads.

A (14:25)

This comes from NPR sponsor Sierra. How businesses connect with customers defines their brand. Sierra is the platform for building better, more human customer experiences with AI. No stock answers, no hold music, just real solutions fast. Visit Sierra AI to learn more.

E (14:44)

This message comes from LinkedIn ads. Target your buyers by job title, company role and skills with LinkedIn ads. All the professionals you need to reach in one place get a $250 credit on your next campaign@LinkedIn.com results. Terms and conditions apply.