Short Wave – "The dangers of warming winter lakes"

Host: Emily Kwong
Date: February 27, 2026
Guest Contributors: Burley McCoy (Short Wave producer/reporter), Hilary Dugan (lake scientist), Justin Tooze (firefighter/lake rescue team), Sapna Sharma (global change biologist), James Tighe (Clean Lakes Alliance founder)

Episode Overview

This episode explores how shorter, warmer winters are making ice cover on lakes less reliable—changing not only northern cultural traditions, but also community safety. Reporter Burley McCoy dives into the science behind ice formation and weakening, attends a major winter festival in Madison, Wisconsin, and tags along with a lake rescue team to understand how climate change is already putting people at greater risk on the ice.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Winter Traditions and the Changing Landscape

• Festival Spotlight: “Frozen Assets” (01:16 – 02:14)

  • Burley describes her trip to Lake Mendota in Madison, WI for the annual Frozen Assets festival: "There is ice hockey, curling, ice skating. People are flying these giant, colorful kites on the ice. A skydiver is landing on the ice right now” (01:20 – Burley McCoy).
  • A unique tradition: a thousand people warming up for a 5k race by jumping together to shake the ice.

• Cultural Significance and Vulnerability (04:39 – 05:36)

  • Emily reflects on the importance of winter lake activities in northern communities: “It reminds me of lacing up my skates on the weekend just to go out on the lake and have fun, though... nervous every time to step on it" (05:19 – Emily Kwong).

2. Ice Science and Safety

• Types of Ice and Safe Thickness (03:41 – 04:39)
  • Black Ice: “Black ice is really strong and it's what freezes in the lake water itself... it's strongest” (03:58 – Hilary Dugan).
  • White Ice: “White ice is what's forming when you freeze snow or slush. And that white ice has a lot more air in it, just weaker in general" (04:14 – Hilary Dugan).
  • For safe walking: a person needs at least 4 inches of black ice.

3. Unpredictable Ice Cover — Festival Disruption

• Ice Not Forming Reliably (05:36 – 06:04)
  • Hilary Dugan: “Two years ago, the ice didn't form thick enough in time for the festival, so the festival on the ice was canceled, and it was sort of moved to the shore... takes away the spirit of what this festival's about” (05:52).

4. Lake Rescue and Increasing Dangers

• Fire Department Lake Rescue Training (06:07 – 08:49)

  • Burley joins Madison’s lake rescue team for a simulation: “I put on this giant yellow immersion suit. They call it a Gumby suit because you basically walk like the green claymation character Gumby" (06:46 – Burley McCoy).
  • Practice includes jumping into open water near unstable ice and using a rescue sled.

• Real-Life Rescue Scenarios and Hazards (09:00 – 10:05)

  • Justin Tooze explains: “Last year was definitely our busiest year just because of the mild winter... it looks like solid ice, but it’s not solid ice at all” (09:05).
  • False ice shelves due to multiple freeze-thaw cycles increase risk: “A person... fell through... It wasn't deep water, but the ice shelf made it so he couldn't get out” (09:25).
  • The rescued person was in frigid water for about 25 minutes (09:42), and survived—a rare good outcome.

5. The Rising Toll of Climate Change on Ice and Drownings

• Increasing Global Incidents (10:18 – 10:50)

  • Sapna Sharma shares research: “We've documented over 4,000 fatal drownings through ice... across 10 countries” (10:29).
  • “50% of those drownings can be explained by winter air temperatures, such that in warmer winters, more people drown” (10:50).

• The Role of ‘Winter Weirding’ (11:16 – 11:44)

  • Hilary Dugan: “We'll just have these really cold polar vortex events followed by heat waves... winter is no longer this duration of cold weather. It kind of bounces around all over the place” (11:23).

• The Future of Lake Ice (11:44 – 12:00)

  • Sapna Sharma: “You might expect 10 to 28 days less ice cover by the end of the century. And at current greenhouse gas emission scenarios, we forecast about 5,700 lakes may permanently become ice free within this century” (11:44).

6. Broader Impacts of Vanishing Ice

• Cultural & Infrastructural Losses (12:22 – 12:53)
  • Loss of ice affects not just recreation, but practical needs:
    • “It matters for winter ice roads... so many northern communities, especially remote communities, and many indigenous communities actually require the use of winter ice roads to access food, fuel, medical supplies and even social connections in the winter” (12:24 – Sapna Sharma).
  • Emily: “Yeah, ice is an invaluable resource, actually in a lot of places. And it is being threatened by climate change” (12:48).

7. Call to Action & Hope for Change

• Sorrow and Activism (12:53 – 13:23)
  • James Tighe: “Once people care about something, then they're gonna wanna protect it. You know, things are changing and if there's a year that you can't be on the ice, then people are gonna start to wonder why, and maybe they'll ask for a change” (13:09).

Notable Quotes

• Burley McCoy, on the culture of lake life:
  “In Madison, in many places downtown, people can always see one of the two lakes surrounding the city. It's just part of everyday life there, and a lot of people take advantage of that.” (04:53)

• Hilary Dugan, on changing winters:
  “Winter is no longer this duration of cold weather. It kind of bounces around all over the place.” (11:23)

• Sapna Sharma, on the staggering loss:
  “At current greenhouse gas emission scenarios, we forecast about 5,700 lakes may permanently become ice free within this century.” (11:44)

• James Tighe, on the ripple effect of change:
  “Once people care about something, then they're gonna wanna protect it... if there's a year that you can't be on the ice, then people are gonna start to wonder why, and maybe they'll ask for a change.” (13:09)

Key Timestamps

• 01:16 – Burley describes the Frozen Assets festival.
• 03:41 – Science of ice thickness and types (black ice vs. white ice).
• 05:36 – Reliability of ice; festival forced off ice due to poor conditions.
• 06:15 – Introduction to lake rescue training (Justin Tooze).
• 09:00 – Mild winters and changing rescue needs.
• 10:29 – Global data on fatal drownings and warming winters.
• 11:23 – "Winter weirding" and erratic freeze-thaw cycles.
• 11:44 – Future projections: thousands of lakes losing winter ice.
• 12:24 – Social and infrastructure impacts for communities.
• 13:09 – Cultural loss as a catalyst for climate action.

Conclusion

This episode blends personal reporting, practical rescue exercises, and science interviews to reveal the profound effects of climate change on a beloved aspect of northern life: winter lake ice. Warming trends jeopardize safety, traditions, and even essential infrastructure, raising urgent questions for communities who depend on frozen lakes. The story closes with a note of hope: as ice becomes less reliable, perhaps public concern will grow into action and protection for future winters.