Short Wave: "Why The Tropics Have A Weather Forecasting Problem"
Podcast: Short Wave (NPR)
Original Air Date: October 10, 2025
Host: Emily Kwong
Guest: Angel Damas Coraliza, Atmospheric Scientist & 2025 MacArthur Fellow
Episode Overview
This episode unpacks why weather forecasting in the tropics lags behind predictions made for higher-latitude regions, highlighting both scientific challenges and social implications. Atmospheric scientist Angel Damas Coraliza, recognized with a MacArthur "Genius" grant, explains how his childhood in Puerto Rico — and first-hand experiences with devastating hurricanes — fueled his mission to improve tropical meteorology. The episode dives into the science of tropical weather, its differences from mid-latitude systems, the global significance of tropical phenomena like the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), and calls for greater scientific equity.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
1. Personal Connection to Tropical Weather (00:00–04:14)
- Angel Damas Coraliza's Exposure to Hurricanes:
- Grew up in Puerto Rico, familiar with extreme weather but deeply impacted by Hurricane Georges (1998).
- "We cannot evacuate from hurricanes because we're in an island. So we had to kind of weather the hurricane...the winds roaring and the house shaking."
— Angel Damas Coraliza (01:03)
- "We cannot evacuate from hurricanes because we're in an island. So we had to kind of weather the hurricane...the winds roaring and the house shaking."
- Hurricane Maria (2017) was a life-changing event:
- "I was not able to contact my family for weeks...it was like something died with that storm." (02:01)
- Grew up in Puerto Rico, familiar with extreme weather but deeply impacted by Hurricane Georges (1998).
- These experiences motivated Angel to pursue atmospheric science, with the explicit goal of better serving his community and all tropical regions.
2. Recognition and Representation in Science (04:14–05:45)
- MacArthur "Genius" Grant:
- Angel’s pioneering research into tropical humidity earned him the prestigious award, enabling increased visibility for Puerto Rican science.
- "To be able to receive this award...and they tell me like, no, we see you...To me, this is everything."
— Angel Damas Coraliza (03:40)
3. Why the Tropics Are Understudied (05:45–07:41)
- Focus on Mid-Latitude Weather:
- Early meteorological research centered on wealthier, mid-latitude nations (e.g., US, Europe), with less attention paid to tropical systems.
- Local knowledge (e.g., Taino in Caribbean, Peruvian natives with El Niño) existed but was overlooked by Western scientific establishment.
- "It's actually, I don't think it's incorrect to say that people in North America and Europe knew nothing about the tropics until World War II."
— Angel Damas Coraliza (06:57)
- "It's actually, I don't think it's incorrect to say that people in North America and Europe knew nothing about the tropics until World War II."
4. Scientific Breakthroughs and the Roots of Forecasting Gaps (07:41–11:15)
- World War II as a Turning Point:
- Typhoons challenged Allied operations in the Pacific, spurring recognition of dynamic tropical weather and first real scientific efforts to understand it.
- Herbert Riehl wrote the first English-language book on tropical meteorology in the 1950s.
- "Before all this happened, people had just assumed that the tropics were kind of like this paradise...And then we realized that it was serious in World War II."
— Angel Damas Coraliza (07:43)
- "Before all this happened, people had just assumed that the tropics were kind of like this paradise...And then we realized that it was serious in World War II."
- Fundamental Differences in Weather Systems:
- In mid-latitudes: Jet stream drives large temperature swings (cold/warm fronts).
- In tropics: Temperature is stable year-round; instead, moisture (humidity) drives weather cycles — rainy vs. dry periods.
- "So in the tropics it actually gets really humid or it's really dry. That's really kind of the big thing that drives weather patterns."
— Angel Damas Coraliza (10:03)
- "So in the tropics it actually gets really humid or it's really dry. That's really kind of the big thing that drives weather patterns."
5. The Problem: Poor Tropical Forecasting (11:15–11:59)
- Model Limitations:
- Most global weather models were built for mid-latitude physics, not tropical conditions.
- Lack of comprehensive theories and textbooks on tropical dynamics compounds forecasting inequality.
- "The vast majority of weather forecasting models were initially built to tackle mid-latitude weather, not tropical weather...it is a problem of human safety and well-being that we cannot forecast things in the tropics as well as we do in the mid-latitudes."
— Angel Damas Coraliza (11:15)
- "The vast majority of weather forecasting models were initially built to tackle mid-latitude weather, not tropical weather...it is a problem of human safety and well-being that we cannot forecast things in the tropics as well as we do in the mid-latitudes."
6. The Madden-Julian Oscillation & New Understandings (11:59–13:59)
- Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO):
- Largest unknown global weather driver for most people; as important as El Niño.
- "The MJO is actually the most important tropical phenomenon that people don't know about...It has impacts throughout the globe."
— Angel Damas Coraliza (12:21)
- "The MJO is actually the most important tropical phenomenon that people don't know about...It has impacts throughout the globe."
- MJO affects hurricane activity and even rainfall events in distant regions like California.
- Largest unknown global weather driver for most people; as important as El Niño.
- Moisture-Wind-Rain Feedback:
- Angel discovered that, in the tropics, moisture, rainfall, and wind are tightly coupled in a continuous feedback loop — influencing not just the MJO but possibly other phenomena.
- "When it's humid, it starts to rain, but then all that rain actually changes the wind patterns...the moisture, the rains and the winds, they couple together."
— Angel Damas Coraliza (13:12)
- "When it's humid, it starts to rain, but then all that rain actually changes the wind patterns...the moisture, the rains and the winds, they couple together."
- Angel discovered that, in the tropics, moisture, rainfall, and wind are tightly coupled in a continuous feedback loop — influencing not just the MJO but possibly other phenomena.
7. Scientific Equity & the Future of Forecasting (13:59–15:05)
- The Vision for Global Weather Justice:
- Calls for forecasting equity so people in the tropics have access to the same level of warning and preparedness as those in wealthier, better-studied regions.
- "At the end of the day, everybody deserves to have the best possible weather forecast...And right now we don't equally have the knowledge about climate and the atmosphere for everywhere."
— Angel Damas Coraliza (14:26)
- "At the end of the day, everybody deserves to have the best possible weather forecast...And right now we don't equally have the knowledge about climate and the atmosphere for everywhere."
- Calls for forecasting equity so people in the tropics have access to the same level of warning and preparedness as those in wealthier, better-studied regions.
Notable Quotes / Memorable Moments
-
On community and representation:
"As a community, we've been invisible. And to be able to receive this award...and they tell me...we see what you're doing and we think that what you do matters. It's not just what you're doing, but what your community is doing. To me, this is everything."
— Angel Damas Coraliza (03:40) -
On scientific priorities:
"It's a problem of human safety and well-being that we cannot forecast things in the tropics as well as we do in the mid-latitudes."
— Angel Damas Coraliza (11:15) -
Urgency for scientific parity:
"Where we should be is a place where everybody knows the same amount about everywhere."
— Angel Damas Coraliza (14:53)
Key Timestamps
- 00:00 – Childhood, hurricanes, and shaping a scientific mission
- 03:28 – Recognition by the MacArthur Foundation
- 06:57 – Western ignorance of tropical storms until WWII
- 10:03 – Moisture as the main driver of tropical weather
- 11:15 – Limitations of existing models for tropical forecasting
- 12:21 – Why the MJO matters
- 13:45 – Feedback loops in tropical weather
- 14:26 – The case for equitable forecasting worldwide
Final Thoughts
In just 15 minutes, this episode connects the personal to the planetary. Listeners get a crash course in why tropical weather is different, why most forecasting fails the tropics, and how scientists like Angel Damas Coraliza are working to close a global data and safety gap. With clear, candid storytelling and a deep sense of justice, the episode offers both accessible science and a passionate call for equity in forecasting — for everyone, everywhere.