Tom Bowman (3:02)

Right. And if you go back in history, you look at George H.W. bush went on TV explaining why they're going into Iraq to push Iraqi troops out of Kuwait. George W. Bush, of course, would go on TV and talk about the rationale for going into Afghanistan, also going into Iraq. And Greg's right. There's no explanation for what's happening here. Remember, President Trump said help is on the way for the Iranian protesters. And now it's they can't have a nuclear weapon. So exactly what is this about? Is it about helping the protesters? Is it about the nuclear weapons that you supposedly obliterated? Remember back in.

Mary Louise Kelly (3:37)

So that's one point I was gonna make. We were told last summer that US And Israeli airstrikes had obliterated the nuclear program, which is hard to square with the urgency suggested by this massive military buildup in the waters off Iran, all over Arabian Sea and the Med Et etc suggests there is some pressing urgent national security threat to address.

Tom Bowman (3:59)

And again, we don't know what that is. And people I talk with, particularly on Capitol Hill, they're hearing concerns from the American military. There are some 40,000 U.S. troops in the Mideast and the real concern is in a Qatar right across the water from Iran and also Bahrain. One retired general told me the Iranians have more missiles than we have interceptors. There's a huge concern there about attacks on those American bases. If they go forward with a massive attack on Iran, you know, going after their leadership, going after the Iranian Revolutionary Guard. If they head down that road, the Iranians may say, you know what, we're going to go full speed ahead and attack Americans. That is what is concerning so many unknowns here.

Mary Louise Kelly (4:46)

Is it worth raising the possibility that perhaps one reason why President Trump and his cabinet are not making a detailed case to Congress and the American people, at least publicly about why we're doing this, that they're not envisioning a big Iraq style or Afghan style war. They don't think that is where this is going. I mean, there's no talk that I have heard. Tell me what your sources are telling you about American ground troops being in.

Tom Bowman (5:14)

Oh my God. They'll never send American ground troops into Iran. I don't think there's any appetite anywhere for sending American ground troops. I'm told that the belief is the Iranians will just take the hit. They're not going to give up their program and they're basically going to take the hit and say, what do you want to do now?

Greg Myre (5:31)

Yeah, I mean, you could probably break it down just very briefly into sort of three options. One, they keep talking and negotiating. Today is just the third round of the current talks, and previous talks have gone on much longer. Iran says it would prefer a deal. Trump says he would prefer a deal. So nothing could keep them from continuing to talk, number one. Number two, would be a limited option, maybe something somewhat similar to what we saw last June, the US and or Israel bombs for a day or a couple days, sends a message, inflicts some more damage, shows that they can do this again and again, but stops there and doesn't go on. Or the big option go big. A long, open ended, sustained campaign, perhaps aimed at regime change. But as Tom noted, if you don't have ground troops, you're kind of hoping the regime collapses. You're not going to be able to force it.

Tom Bowman (6:23)

Here's the other thing. People talk about regime change. They toss that out. This is a very strong regime. It's been around since 1979. If they kill the leadership, another leader will go in its place. Again, the Revolutionary Guard is very strong and the opposition in Iran is fractured. You have the Shah's son who maybe want to come back into power, who's

Mary Louise Kelly (6:49)

been living in the United States.

Tom Bowman (6:51)

So the sense of regime change, when people toss that out, Walk me through how exactly that happens with this strong regime.

Mary Louise Kelly (6:59)

I guess I'm just trying to figure out what is driving and informing President Trump's thinking here. Do we know who is the hawk in Washington? Who is driving all this? Like, who's making the case for this massive military buildup?

Greg Myre (7:12)

That's a good question that I've been asking myself and others, and it's not absolutely clear. There is a sense that some of this is happening by default, that Iran really wasn't on the front burner and the protests began. And so the administration started talking, talking about it and moving military hardware into the region. It now finds itself in the position of, well, if we don't get a deal, I guess we have to do something. Trump has certainly talked about it, saying regime change would be his preferred outcome, but you don't necessarily see it. I mean, he's clearly talking to Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, who are doing the negotiating, but you don't get the sense they're pushing for a military option.

Mary Louise Kelly (7:54)

Whatever is driving this, whoever is driving this, I do want to just consider the stakes, the possibility that whatever the US's next move is, it risks a spiral of further escalation. Just sketch out this scenario where a limited strike could become something much bigger in a region that is perpetually Iran

Greg Myre (8:23)

still has a lot of ballistic missiles. It fired them at Israel and US bases last year. It could certainly do that again. One of those missiles could get through, cause extensive damage in Israel, hit a U.S. base, hit a U.S. ship. That would probably lead to calls for further escalation. And beyond a conflict, an actual larger war, there's all sorts of other things that could happened. The disruption of oil flows in and out of the Gulf. The US could try to stop Iranian oil exports. Iran could try to stop exports from other countries in the region, from the Emirates, from Saudi Arabia. So you could see an expansion in many, many different directions. And we've seen this volatility in this region many, many times before.

Mary Louise Kelly (9:10)

After a quick break, we are going to shift to a different conflict, different part of the world. Four years of full scale war with Russia and ukra. Ukraine is still standing, still resolute in the fight against Russia. What about its allies? That's ahead on Sources and Methods from npr.

Commercial Announcer (9:34)

This message comes from Wise, the app for international people. Using money around the globe, you can send, spend and receive in up to 40 currencies with only a few simple taps. Be smart, Get Wise. Download the Wise app today or visit wise.com Ts and Cs apply. This message comes from Mint Mobile. This holiday season, stop overpaying for wireless and switch to Mint Shop. 50% off unlimited plans@mintmobile.com Switch limited time offer upfront payment of $45 for three months, $90 for six months or $180 for 12 months. Taxes and fees extra initial plan term only above 35 GB. Network may slow when busy. Capable device required availability, speed and coverage varies.

Commercial Announcer (10:19)

See mintmobile.com this message comes from Jerry Noticing your car insurance rate creep up even without tickets or claims. You're not alone. That's why there's Jerry. Jerry handles the legwork by comparing quotes side by side from over 50 top insurers so you can confidently hit buy. No spam calls, no hidden fees. Jerry even tracks rates and alerts you when it's best to shop. Drivers who save with Jeri could save over $1,300 a year. Don't overpay, download the Jeri app or visit Jeri AI, NPR Today, Iran was

Mary Louise Kelly (10:55)

not the only item on the agenda in Geneva today. President Trump's geopolitical men about town, Jared Kushner, Steve Witkoff, they chaired the Iran talks and they were also set to meet with a senior advisor to Ukraine's president, Volodymyr Zelenskyy. This ahead of a potential round of three way talks. So us, Ukraine and Russ week, maybe Greg to step back. This week, of course, marks four years since Russia's full scale war on Ukraine, a war which President Trump did mention in his State of the Union address on Tuesday, but he did not exactly dwell on Ukraine. Not a lot of time and energy in that direction.

Greg Myre (11:36)

Yeah, President Trump said he stopped eight wars and this would be the ninth war.

Tom Bowman (11:40)

The killing and slaughter between Russia and

Greg Myre (11:43)

Ukraine where 25,000 soldiers are dying each and every every month. Think of that. 25,000 soldiers are dying a month. A war which would have never happened

Tom Bowman (11:56)

if I were president, would have never happened.

Greg Myre (11:59)

The way he addressed it briefly and the way he talked about it in this instance and in the past has been it's a war to be stopped. He says very little in the way of how should it end, what's the correct way for this to end, what's in the best interest of the United States. So I see these different interests. President Trump wants the war to end, a deal. Vladimir Putin seems like he wants to drag this war out as long as possible. So it seems to be very much a contradiction there. And Ukraine sees this really as an existential threat. So what matters to most to Ukraine is how does this war end? Do they have to permanently give up territory? Do they have to leave Russia in control, but in a sort of temporary open ended situation, Is the country still viable? Will they have security guarantees in the

Mary Louise Kelly (12:45)

future to make sure this doesn't just happen again in a couple of years?

Greg Myre (12:49)

Yeah, exactly. So I see President, President Trump, President Putin and President Zelensky having very different goals here.

Tom Bowman (12:56)

Well, politically, Russia wants to take over the rest of the donbas. They have 20% in eastern Ukraine, roughly 20% they don't have now. Ukraine doesn't want to give up any land at all. So here we are stuck in that political problem. Right. A way out may be what they're calling a demilitarized zone that would be in the east and could be as wide as maybe several four or five miles. That may be a way out of this, that maybe Ukraine could pull back from the places it has now and have this demilitarized zone. Russia would clearly hold on to what they have in the east. That may be a way forward, keep an eye on that and Army Secretary describing.

Mary Louise Kelly (13:40)

Just stay there for a second. You're describing diplomacy is tough on this. They're having a hard time getting even, getting all three of these parties, us, Ukraine, Russia, at the same table. And that's leaving Europe out of it, which Europe does not want to be left out of it. But just to say that if the diplomats are not finding a path through this, you're saying maybe there is a military path, maybe you just de facto freeze the lines, have a dmz, kind of what like North, South Korea style.

Tom Bowman (14:08)

Europeans say the best hope for Ukrainians is freezing the front lines.

Mary Louise Kelly (14:13)

Right.

Tom Bowman (14:14)

The military to military folks. The Ukrainians and the Russians, I'm told, actually getting along pretty well. They kind of agree on this dmz. They agree on what a truce looks like. The question is, can the political people agree on this? But I think that is the likeliest way forward to resolve this, is have some sort of a dmz.

Mary Louise Kelly (14:33)

And the big question then is, could Ukraine live with that? And that's not what they've been fighting for four years.

Tom Bowman (14:39)

No. The other big concern is what kind of security guarantees do you get from the U.S. would you get Article 5, like, security guarantees that you have in NATO, that an attack on one is an attack on all? What about, you know, surveillance of this dmz? What about more assistance to the Ukrainians? Europe is really pushing forward on this, even though Trump is kind of pulling back and saying, I just want this to end. But he's not explaining exactly how he wants it to end. It's funny, it's the military people that are working this hard.

Mary Louise Kelly (15:10)

I was interviewing Ukraine's ambassador to the United States this week. This is Olga Stefanishina and asking her about the security guarantees and where this goes. And she also used that phrase something like Article five, like kind of NATO adjacent. We know we're not NATO. We're not going to join NATO. We're not going to have collective defense. That an attack on one and it's an attack on all. But Article five, like, and when I tried to push her on what that means, that's a tricky one because an attack on one is an attack on all is black and white. It's hard to see what a light version of that would look like.

Greg Myre (15:51)

Well, and even if you can get Ukraine, the US and the rest of NATO to agree on that, what does Russia say about that? Well, they say, absolutely not. We don't want any kind of NATO presence in Ukraine. We don't want this agreement. Article 5, like, we don't want NATO peacekeepers there. We don't want the pledge that more NATO troops would come pouring in if there's a conflict in the future. So, you know, you have all these different stakeholders and you might say, okay, well, if we can get US And Ukraine and NATO on this one, or the US And Russia might agree to something here. But getting the, you know, it just, it comes down to, as you say, this all or nothing thing. Are you going to have NATO forces in Ukraine or not?

Mary Louise Kelly (16:36)

I want to take a moment to point out something I just said about this diplomatic duo of Kushner and Wyckoff in Geneva this week. Again, I can't imagine this happening in any prior administration. The same two guys, neither of whom are professional diplomats, by the way, trying to make headway on two giant geopolitical conflicts. They're going to solve Iran, they're going to solve Ukraine in one. I mean, Greg, should we think, okay, it's outside the box, like if they more power to them or think this is an absolute recipe for disaster?

Greg Myre (17:15)

I would go with the latter on that. These two guys in the same city on the same day last week and again this week, trying to deal with both of these conflicts. And you just think back on the previous Iran negotiations that went on for months, even years.

Mary Louise Kelly (17:32)

It involved to try to get the

Greg Myre (17:33)

JPCR to try to get the first nuclear agreement back in 2015. It involved teams from the State Department, the Pentagon, the intelligence community, all going over this in great detail. Ernest Moniz, a nuclear physicist, was part of that first team, spelling out for energy secretary, Energy secretary, spelling out what all of these nuclear technicalities were. And you have a couple businessmen doing

Tom Bowman (18:01)

this now, basically real estate. Guys.

Greg Myre (18:04)

Let's note that this kind of approach, there have been some successes in the region. The ceasefire in Gaza was established last fall. Jared Kushner in the first term got the Abraham Accords, which I think surprised many people both in achieving them and the way they've played out. So there have been some things they could point to that have gone much better than many predicted and were not traditional, but just the scale of doing both of these things at the same time, trying to do it. But one before lunch and the other after lunch really seems quite a tall task.

Mary Louise Kelly (18:40)

We're going to take a short break. When we come back, how Ukraine is inventing a new playbook for a battlefield prowled by drones. That's ahead on Sources and Methods from npr.

Commercial Announcer (18:57)

This message comes from Mint mobile. Starting at $15 a month, make the switch@mintmobile.com Switch $45 upfront payment for 3 months 5 gigabyte plan equivalent to $15 a month taxes and fees. Extra first 3 months only.

Commercial Announcer (19:12)

See Terms this message comes from Mattress Firm Waking up stiff or sore. Mattress Firm sleep experts can match you with a Tempur Pedic Adapt mattress designed to relieve pressure for deeper rest. For the great sleep you deserve, visit Mattress Firm. They make sleep easy. This message comes from Babbel. Babbel's conversation based language technique teaches you useful words and phrases to get you speaking quickly about the things you actually talk about in the real world with lessons handcrafted by over 200 language experts and voiced by real native speakers. Start speaking with Babbel today. Get up to 55% off your Babbel subscription right now at babbel.com NPR spelled B-A-B-B-E-L.com NPR rules and restrictions may apply.

Commercial Announcer (20:04)

This message comes from Bombas. Your feet hit the ground an average of 2,000 times in a mile. Bombus sports socks are designed to support you every step. Sprint to bombus.com NPR and use code NPR for 20% off.

Mary Louise Kelly (20:20)

So alongside the diplomatic push and pull with Europe and the US that we've just been talking about, Ukraine has been figuring out how to fight effectively and efficiently on its own and how to fight a type of warfare we hadn't really seen anywhere before this conflict. I got a chance to talk about that this week during that interview I just referenced with Ukraine's ambassador, Olga Stefanishina. This was on stage. We had a live audience at the Council on Foreign Relations. Greg, you were there. You had your own batch of ambassadors. You were putting questions to Ambassador Stefanishina. And I talked about all kinds of things, wide ranging conversation to mark four years of war. But I did want to share this drone section with you. This came during the audience Q and A. And one of the questions she got was essentially, how has Ukraine gotten so good so fast at drone warfare? And she smiled and she said, oh, let me tell you a story.

Olga Stefanishina (21:18)

A week before leaving to Washington to serve as the ambassador, I went on the front line and I was in Zaporizhzhia on Sumoy and Kharkiv. And I happened to get to a headquarters of the drone command. The general who was in charge of the drone command is one of the most successful Ukrainian businessmen. He was working in the agricultural sector and he had zero experience in drones. He knew nothing about the drones. When the war started, he mobilized to the territorial defense. And I was just asking him how did you make throughout all of this way? Four years ago, he was interested in arts. He was a philanthropist. And now you're sitting underground in charge of drone command. And he said, then, you know, we were in Kherson, and there was a very severe fight, and we had only guns. And it was really scary because when you need to get to the Hill, when you have no idea what is waiting for you, they needed ice, right? And he said, like, I just didn't want to die. No, he just was literally ready to do anything he can. And then they said, oh, we can use the drone. And then they used one drone, and then they used the other drone, and then here we are. So when you want to live and you want to fight, and when you cannot allow yourself dying because you have a mission, you will invent anything. So this is how it happened.

Mary Louise Kelly (23:01)

Okay, so again, that was Ukraine's ambassador here in Washington, Olga Stefanishchina. Greg, I think, you know, from your own reporting on the ground in Ukraine, you know something about this man and his story. What is it?

Greg Myre (23:15)

I think so. She didn't mention the names. I'm not 100% certain, but there's a very famous drone commander in Ukraine. His name is Robert Brovdi. And his call sign, all the Ukrainians use call signs, is Magyar. And he was a very successful businessman who, as she said, was not involved in the military or drones, but got involved when the war began and seems to be something of a drone genius and is behind much of the Ukrainian innovation and the way they're using it on the battlefield to keep a much larger Russian force at bay and to strike inside. And he's on social media a lot, and he completely mocks the Russians every time they carry out an attack. He says, look, they've set off a new bonfire at this Russian base when obviously it was a Ukrainian drone attack. So he is quite legendary in Ukraine and is considered the real godfather of the Ukrainian drone strikes.

Mary Louise Kelly (24:18)

I mean, it's a great story about how, as we all know, necessity is the mother of invention. I'm trying to understand just what is so different about the way that. That Ukrainians are using drones. Because the US Was at the forefront of the Reaper drone, the Predator drone, of using drones for lethal force in combat zones. What has Ukraine pioneered that we're all looking at?

Greg Myre (24:42)

Yeah, the US Relied on these big drones that were very sophisticated, very powerful, but they weren't being threatened by anybody else. They had the skies to themselves. Ukrainians realized very quickly four years ago that they needed to make drones work for them. They really started with off the shelf Chinese made civilian drones that cost $500 or $1,000 by the company DJI. They would start using them for surveillance nearby. Then they would watch on YouTube and see American kids dropping water bottles from these drones. And they started using grenades, which they started dropping down the open hatches of tanks and blowing up multimillion dollar Russian tanks. And it's just gone from there. These drones initially could travel a couple miles. UK their own. There are dozens, perhaps hundreds of small drone makers all over Ukraine. They can now make drones that go hundreds of miles into Russia to carry out very sophisticated attacks. They're making them bigger and more powerful. Ukraine was essentially making no drones when the war, the full scale Russian invasion began. They're going to make 5 million or more this year.

Tom Bowman (25:55)

And it's important to note that the software in these drones is changing, I'm told every few days. And get this, I'm told that every day there were maybe 6,000 drones going back and forth between Ukraine and Russia. But listen, this is the first drone war. This is like the machine gun in World War I. We're seeing a huge sea change in how everyone fights. It's all about drones now.

Mary Louise Kelly (26:20)

So the Pentagon must be very much sitting up and taking notice.

Tom Bowman (26:23)

Oh, absolutely. There's a lot of lessons learned from the Pentagon here. They're bringing Ukrainians over to some of the American bases to teach them how to use these drones.

Greg Myre (26:32)

Just last week, the army had the first ever best drone warfighter competition in Huntsville, Alabama. And they invited teams from all over the army to come and not just use a standard issue drone. Bring your own drones. Invent something. Show us what you can do. And the team that won, from the Army National Guard's 28th Infantry Division, won the award for innovation. They came up with their own drone that uses a claw to pick up downed drones either from or enemy drones. So they can either be safe.

Mary Louise Kelly (27:03)

It's like a rescue drone to pull in your buddies.

Greg Myre (27:06)

Yeah, absolutely.

Tom Bowman (27:07)

Well, Mary Louise, I was actually at an exercise down in Louisiana a year and a half ago, and it's how the army is learning to fight against drones or with their own drones. And back when I was in Afghanistan, they would have huge bases and big radar dishes and antennae. Now a headquarters for a brigade which is several thousand soldiers is basically, it looks like a camel with camouflage netting over it because they know a drone can come over and maybe see them. So they're trying to be, you know, camouflaged. But they're also what they're doing is they don't want any electronic emissions coming from that little headquarters because a drone can pick it up. So how do we fight against it and how do we, you know, move forward in this era of drone warfare?

Mary Louise Kelly (27:55)

Fear. All right, we're at the finish line. Our final segment, as always, is open source intelligence. Osint, what'd you hear this week that perked up your ears, Greg Myrich?

Greg Myre (28:07)

Yeah, So I went to the spy museum here in Washington, and they had a new exhibit that's about to open on the history of camouflage. And one part of it is just mannequins with various camo down through history, from the all tan camo for deserts used by British colonial era troops.

Mary Louise Kelly (28:24)

So this was international, not African American.

Greg Myre (28:26)

Oh, absolutely. And the most recent one is one currently in use in Ukraine. White jumpsuits to blend in with the snow. Now, what was interesting in addition to the camo is there was a little video there as well, talking about how infrared detection works to pick up heat. And so that means even if you do have camo that blends with your environment and it's a dark, moonless night, your body is giving off heat that could be detected by a drone, for example.

Mary Louise Kelly (28:55)

Excellent point. You can have the world's greatest camo. It really doesn't matter if the infrared drone sensor is overhead.

Greg Myre (29:03)

So now militaries are looking into creating camo with materials that limit the heat signal that a body sends off so that the drones can't detect them. So it's always trying to get one step ahead of the other guy.

Mary Louise Kelly (29:17)

One step ahead, Tom.

Tom Bowman (29:18)

Well, those of us who watched the State of the Union saw in the gallery a 100-year-old retired Navy captain, Royce Williams. He got the Medal of Honor. And the reason he got the medal was because he shot down four Soviet MiG fighters during the Korean War in 1952. With Soviet pilots. They kept it secret for more than 50 years. The reason was they were worried that if the Americans said, we just shot down a bunch of of Soviet pilots, it would escalate tensions and maybe lead to World War three. He kept it secret, didn't tell his wife or his brother, who was also a pilot. And he was awarded a Silver Star at the time for shooting down, quote, enemy aircraft.

Mary Louise Kelly (30:03)

Enemy aircraft. There you go. All right. Mine is, I have been tracking a diplomatic contretemps in Wales, France. Two key players here. The players are Jean Noel Barraud, who is France's foreign minister. I actually just got to interview him, met him this month, earlier this Month in Munich at the Munich security conference. So Barraud and then Charles Kushner, the U.S. ambassador to France. If that last name sounds familiar, yes, he is indeed related to Jared Kushner. He's his dad. And the contretemps between these two is Ambassador Kushner failed to appear after Barrot summoned him. Diplomatic summons. The background is Kushner, as US ambassador had commented on social media and what he was commenting on was a domestic internal matter in France had to do with left wing violence in France. Foreign Minister Barraud responded and I'm paraphrasing here, but he basically said butt out, we don't need any lessons from you. He summons Ambassador Kushner so that he can scold him and deliver this message in person. And Kushner didn't show. We don't know why. We do know that that further inflamed the situation. Barraud then put out a statement I think gave an interview saying this is disrespecting the most basic customs of diplomacy. We are told they have since kissed and made up or at least hopped on a phone call together. The US Embassy in Paris put out a statement and said they had this call. They called it frank and amicable. So you can read whatever you want

Tom Bowman (31:45)

in between diplomatic speak. That means we had an argument.

Mary Louise Kelly (31:50)

There was no transcript. So alas, we do not know whether Kushner offered voluntarily or otherwise to say je suis desolde. I am so sorry. With that we are going to say thank you and farewell and paranational security correspondent Greg Myhrey and our rover Pentagon correspondent Tom Bowman. Thanks. You too.

Tom Bowman (32:10)

You're welcome.

Greg Myre (32:11)

Pleasure. As always, a reminder here as we

Mary Louise Kelly (32:14)

wrap up the news is unpredictable. We do our best to get new episodes out around the same time every Thursday afternoon. The best way to make sure you get new episodes of the show as soon as they are available is follow the show. Follow sources and methods. Whatever platform you use to listen most places you're gonna wanna look for the follow button. It should be somewhere near the top top of our show page. And if like me, you sometimes find a transcript useful. There is a transcript of every episode of our show. It's posted on our website@npr.org you can find them on each episode page, usually the day after we post a new episode. Thank you for listening. I'm Mary Louise Kelley. We are back next week with another episode of Sources and methods for MenPro Secure.

Commercial Announcer (33:07)

This message comes from vanta. What's your 2am Security worry? Is it do I have the right controls? In place, or are my vendors secure? Enter Vanta. Vanta automates manual work so you can stop sweating over spreadsheets, chasing audit evidence, and filling out endless questionnaires. Their trust management platform continuously monitors your systems, centralizes your data, and simplifies your security at scale. Get started advanta.com that's V A N T A dot com this message comes from Schwab. Everyone has moments when they could have done better, like cutting their own hair or forgetting sunscreen, so now you look like a tomato. Same goes for where you invest. Level up and invest smarter with Schwab. Get market insights, education, and human help when you need it. Learn more@schwab.com this message comes from Duck AI. Chat privately with popular AIs. Now go to Duck AI/NPR. Your information is protected, it's free, and no account is required by DuckDuckGo, where AI is always optional.