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Rob Dannenberg
Putin will understand very well what motivates President Trump. His ego, his need for the spotlight. And he will play into that like a good case officer should be able to do.
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Mary Louise Kelly
What is Vladimir Putin really like? How does he think? What is his strategy with President Trump? Freshly relevant questions because we're told another summit is in the works. Trump says he'll meet his Russian counterpart in Budapest, Hungary. This is Sources and Methods from npr. I'm Mary Louise Kelly. Rob Dannenberg understands Putin. He was CIA station chief in Moscow. He did two tours of duty in Russia, knows that country and how its leaders think. These days. He is retired from the CIA and he makes a mean cocktail. In fact, it's more than a hobby. His book out this year is called A Spy Walked Into a A Practitioner's Guide to Cocktail Tradecraft. This is another one of our guest interview episodes which we bring you from time to time. We'll be here with our regular episode, breaking down the week's NAT SEC News on Thursday. But today I'm excited to say Rob Dannenberg, welcome to Sources and Methods.
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Rob Dannenberg
Pleasure.
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Mary Louise Kelly
Since we launched a podcast, a lot of people have been asking me, what does that mean? What are sources and methods? So let me put the question to you. What are sources and methods? ROB dannenberg?
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Rob Dannenberg
Yeah. Okay. Well, first of all, those are kind of the basics of the trade. Sources obviously are the people or places where you get secret intelligence that helps inform, in my case, the US Policy making community. Methods are the tools that you use to obtain that information. But I think what's significant and why I like the title of your podcast, Sources and Methods. Most people don't even notice that those two words are not in alphabetical order. I mean, it should be properly methods and sources, but it's not because sources are the most important. They're the hardest to get, they're the hardest to keep. Methods can be adapted over time. You know how you meet an agent, how you collect that information. But to replace an agent that's been compromised is a real problem. So when we talk about protection sources and methods, there's a reason that sources are listed first and methods second.
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Mary Louise Kelly
That makes sense. Before we get into Budapest and all of the news swirling, just start with the background. Putin is his former kgb. You, as I mentioned, you're former CIA. How similar is the skill set Well.
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Rob Dannenberg
I think there are certainly similarities in tactics and approaches to the craft of espionage and gathering intelligence. There's some similarities between the KTB and the CIA. I think the cultures of both organizations are quite different. And I think the moral basis for what the CIA does is quite different than the moral basis for what the Russian intelligence services are up to.
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Mary Louise Kelly
When you say the culture is quite different, can you elaborate?
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Rob Dannenberg
Yeah, I mean that there is congressional oversight of the activities of the Central Intelligence Intelligence Agency. I don't think that most CIA officers, when they finish their career in intelligence, they look forward to moving into the private sector and having something to do with the US Economy and culture that doesn't have anything to do with espionage or intelligence. I'm not sure the same thing is true with former members of the Russian intelligence services. In fact, Vladimir Putin himself has said, there's no such thing as a former KGB officer. I'm sure. I don't think that's necessarily the case with CIA officers.
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Mary Louise Kelly
I remember interviewing another former CIA officer years ago who said, spying on the Russians. I'm paraphrasing, but spying on the Russians is like playing tennis against somebody really, really good. You're forced to raise your game.
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Rob Dannenberg
Yeah, I think we used to euphemistically say that, you know, operating against the Russians in a place like Moscow is like the Yankee Stadium of espionage. We always considered it the opportunity to work against the Russian target in general, but in Moscow in particular was playing at the highest level of espionage.
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Mary Louise Kelly
And then Vladimir Putin himself. In your two tours in Russia, did you ever feel you really got a bead on him? Was there a moment where you thought, oh, I know exactly what he's thinking, or the opposite? I have absolutely no idea what this guy is thinking.
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Rob Dannenberg
I think there were certainly periods where I had both those impressions. I think what helps me articulate a little bit about what's going on in Putin's head now and why he's doing the things that he's doing is a bit of the product of his upbringing as an officer in the KGB and how they were trained and what their worldview is. I mean, a key part of Putin's training as an operations officer will have been understanding how to assess and manipulate your target of interest, which, in the case of, you know, your average case officer is somebody that you're trying to recruit to provide secret intelligence to your government. In the case of what's going on in the world today and looking forward to Budapest and reflecting back on what happened in Anchorage, it is about Putin using his case officer skills that he learned as a young member of the KGB to assess and manipulate the President of the United States.
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Mary Louise Kelly
Well, and help me understand that, because I would like to think that any of us would prepare and be trying to assess the situation, read the room. If we walked into a meeting with the President of the United States, what does the specific training as a case officer, what does that allow Vladimir Putin to bring?
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Rob Dannenberg
Well, I think in the specific case of Putin, he will have benefited from the intelligence file that his services have assembled over the years on Donald Trump. And Putin will. He will know some of Trump's darkest secrets and what they tell about the man, Donald Trump. And Putin will have factored that into his preparation for how he engages with Trump, which now is. I know you've been present for, I guess, four of the summit meetings, the first and second term between Trump and Putin.
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Mary Louise Kelly
Helsinki, Geneva, and then Anchorage this summer.
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Rob Dannenberg
Yeah. And so there's a bit of a public track record now on the results of those meetings and Putin's ability to understand and effectively articulate his points of view to the President of the United States. Now, you say that's case offering or that's just good interpersonal skills. I mean, those two things are related. But the difference is the preparation Putin would have put into being ready for his meetings with Donald Trump and the plan that Putin would have in place for those meetings and then the execution of that plan.
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Mary Louise Kelly
Okay, so let's do the Budapest summit, which President Trump, again, we don't have an exact date, but he says he wants this to happen sooner rather than later. He also says President Trump says the goal is ending the war in Ukraine. Is it clear to you, Rob, that Putin shares this goal?
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Rob Dannenberg
It's clear to me that Putin does not share the goal of ending the war in Ukraine in any kind of compromise fashion or a fashion that would be legal or acceptable for the President of Ukraine.
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Mary Louise Kelly
Vladimir Zelensky, you don't see any sign that Putin's position is softening?
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Rob Dannenberg
Oh, my goodness, no, not a bit. You can take a look at his remarks at the Valdai conference just a couple of weeks ago. If anything, Putin has gotten more hardline in his demands for concessions. I look with a bit of apprehension about what might happen in Budapest. And part of that reason is, you know, this. What we've witnessed in the last seven days is Putin showing his ability to get on the phone and reach out to the President of the United States and get a concession from the President before any negotiation has actually begun. And obviously, I'M referring to the phone call that Putin and Trump held just before Trump met with President Zelensky. During that conversation between Putin and Trump, it appears that Putin persuaded Trump to give up on the idea of selling Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine. Now, you can agree or disagree whether selling those missiles is a good idea or not, but one of the things you should, you should know now about negotiating with the Russians is you don't make concessions before the negotiations start. And Trump seems to have done that. Secondly, agreeing on the choice of venue of Budapest. I mean, as we know, Hungary is run by Viktor Orban, who by all accounts is an acolyte of Vladimir Putin. So Putin will certainly be received in Budapest like a conquering hero.
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Mary Louise Kelly
So this is friendly turf for Vladimir Putin.
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Rob Dannenberg
It's absolutely friendly turf.
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Mary Louise Kelly
You and I spoke, Rob Dannenberg, after the last summit, the Anchorage summit back in August, which you called a big win. Win for Putin and an embarrassment. Your word for the United States. And I recall you thought part of the problem was that Trump treated Putin as an equal. And in your view, Putin only responds to strength.
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Rob Dannenberg
Right. I think going sort of back to the beginning of this conversation, you wanted to. Vladimir Putin's worldview, well, he inherited a Russia that was in chaos, and he is, to his credit, you got to be fair here, he's rebuilt Russia to be a factor on the world stage. But that doesn't mean there's an equivalence between the president of the Russian Federation and the president of the United States. The economy of the United States dwarfs that of the economy of the Russian Federation. Our military is much more powerful than the Russian military. Culturally, there's no current equivalence between the influence that US Culture has on the world and the influence that the culture the Russian Federation has on the world. They're not equals. And by pretending, by feeding Putin's ego and ambition to show the Russian people and his, you know, his allies and partners in India, China and elsewhere that that he, Vladimir Putin, represents a superpower. I think it's a mistake, and President Trump seems to be perfectly willing to play along with that.
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Mary Louise Kelly
I'm remembering the optics of the summit in Anchorage, Alaska, the rolling out of the literal red carpet and the palling around. It sounds like what you're saying is that old. What's the old saying? Flattery will get you everywhere. That with Vladimir Putin, it's almost the reverse. Flattery is going to get you nothing.
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Rob Dannenberg
It's a sign of weakness, frankly, and Putin treats it as such. On the other hand, Putin uses. Uses flattery effectively as part of his toolkit to try and manipulate the President of the United States. He's certainly aware. He. Putin is certainly aware of Trump's famous ego. He understands that Trump's a very transactional guy, and he wants to set the stage for Trump to achieve some sort of transaction that makes him look effective. And that's where the discussion that took place, at least marginally in Anchorage about improving trade relations between the Russian Federation and the United States come into play. But as far as the main subject matter for both Anchorage and what certainly will be the case in Budapest, concessions on the war by Russia, on the war in the Ukraine are simply not on Putin's list of things to give Trump something that looks like a transactional success.
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Mary Louise Kelly
Have you ever figured out what Putin has on Trump, what hold he has on him, why President Trump across years now is often so differential?
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Rob Dannenberg
You know, I'm reluctant to suggest that there's any form of blackmail going on or, you know, I'm not going to go down that conspiracy rabbit hole. But I will say to you that Putin will understand very well what motivates President Trump and, and his ego, his need for the spotlight, and he will play into that. And if that sets the stage for. For Putin to stall the president's decision to provide additional support or support to the Ukraine, then that's a big win for Putin. And that doesn't mean that. That, you know, Putin's blackmailing Trump. He's just manipulating him a bit, like a good case officer should be able to do.
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Mary Louise Kelly
Does he like him? Does Putin like Trump?
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Rob Dannenberg
I don't think Putin has any affection for any American, Frank, and particularly President Trump. I mean, I think Putin loathes Trump for his success as a capitalist, for his ability to dominate headlines around the world. I think Putin resents it. There's no doubt in my mind that, I mean, everybody spends a lot of time these days, and properly so, talking about Trump's achievements in the Middle east and in, you know, reaching a settlement between Hamas and Israel. But, you know, in some parts of the world, world, it's equally important. The agreement that President Trump achieved on Putin's doorstep in the Caucasus, you know, reaching an accommodation between Armenia and Azerbaijan and ending a simmering conflict there for decades. I mean, that's. That's an embarrassment for Putin to have the US President effect such a deal in the territory of the former Soviet Union.
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Mary Louise Kelly
There have been moments where Trump has taken a harder line, has sounded considerably less warm about Vladimir Putin. I'm thinking of last month. This is at a press conference in the uk the one that I thought.
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Rob Dannenberg
Would be easiest would be because of my relationship with President Putin. But he's let me down. He's really let me down. Who's going to be Russia and Ukraine?
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Mary Louise Kelly
He's really let me down. What do you think the Russians are saying to each other as they listen to that in the back rooms of the Kremlin?
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Rob Dannenberg
Yeah, I think the Russians are going to be saying, well, you know, that's, that's Trump today. We can, we can offer him a phone call or another summit and we'll get quite different tune out of, out of Trump. This is, this is 90 seconds of Trump and we can, we can have a different tape played with a little bit more effort. I mean, there's, that's not the only evidence of Trump's frustration with Putin. I mean, Trump wants to get a deal done. He wants to get the war in the Ukraine over. What I think he fails to understand is how central victory in the Ukraine is to Vladimir Putin's world view and his ambitions for the restoration of some form of the Russian empire in other areas that he, Putin, believes Russia has a historical claim to.
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Mary Louise Kelly
Time for a quick break. In just a minute, we'll talk about the link between espionage and cocktails. You're listening to Sources and Methods from npr.
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Support for this podcast and the following message come from MIDI Health Women's midlife health issues have often been trivialized and ignored. It's time for a change. It's time for miti. MITI is covered by major insurance companies. Making expert care accessible and affordable. Clinicians provide one on one consultations where they listen to your unique needs and offer data driven solutions tailored for you. MIDI works to make you feel seen, heard and prioritized. Visit join MIDI.com to book your virtual visit the Care Women Deserve. This message comes from NPR sponsor hp. Easily search through personal files, gain valuable insights and make smarter, more informed business decisions. Unlock the future of work today with the HPAI PC. With the right tools, work doesn't have to feel like work. To learn more, go to hp.comaipc support for this podcast and the following message come from MIDI Health. Women's midlife health issues have often been trivialized and ignored. It's time for a change. It's time for miti. MITI is covered by major insurance companies. Making expert care accessible and affordable. Clinicians provide one on one consultations where they listen to your unique needs and offer data driven solutions tailored for you. MIDI works to make you feel seen, heard and prioritized visit joinmitty.com to book your virtual Visit the Care Women Deserve.
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- [18:41]
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Support for this podcast and the following message come from MIDI Health Women's midlife health issues have often been trivialized and ignored. It's time for a change. It's time for miti. MITI is covered by major insurance companies, making expert care accessible and affordable. Clinicians provide one on one consultations where they listen to your unique needs and offer data driven solutions tailored for you. MITI works to make you feel seen, heard and prioritized. Visit joinmidi.com to book your virtual visit the Care Women Deserve so let's completely change gears.
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Mary Louise Kelly
I want people listening to know you served 24 years at CIA. We've obviously been talking about your work in Russia. You also served as chief of Operations for the Counterterrorism Center. After you retired from the agency, you were living in Colorado and you picked up a hobby photographing cocktails. Explain.
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Rob Dannenberg
Yeah, I did, and thank you for bringing that up. It's fair to say that in the game of espionage, the use of alcohol is sometimes a very important tool and it's part of depending upon the situation and the establishment of a rapport with somebody you're trying to spot, assess, develop and or recruit. It's a way of continuing a relationship and finding reasons to get together. And when I retired I started buying these old cocktail books and assembling the ingredients to make some of the pre prohibition cocktails and would make these drinks and photograph them with the beautiful scenery of my Colorado house in the background and send them to a few former agency friends and they would also try some of these recipes and we would share notes on them. And ultimately that exchange became the collaboration which resulted in the publication of my book. A Spy Walked Into a Bar A.
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Mary Louise Kelly
Spy Walked into a Bar A Practitioner's Guide to Cocktail Tradecraft and you collaborated. Your co author here was another CIA colleague, Joseph Mullen.
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Rob Dannenberg
Yeah, yeah, great guy. And actually quite qualified to be a co author of a piece on cocktails.
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Mary Louise Kelly
Is that a compliment? Yeah, you're quite qualified to write a book about cocktails?
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Rob Dannenberg
Yeah, I mean. I mean that only in the highest form of praise. But he's also a certified specialist in wine, so he genuinely knows what he's talking about. And in the book, he writes a couple of the chapters, like on the history of whiskey and different types of whiskey and things like that, written with the knowledge of an expert.
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Mary Louise Kelly
Got it. I was interested to note. I'll just fill in for background for people listening. When you work for the CIA, when you hold a top Secret security clearance, anything you write has to be submitted for approval before you can publish, including a book of cocktail recipes. What happened when you sent in the manuscript?
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Rob Dannenberg
Yeah, that is true. You have an obligation. You sign a lifetime agreement that anything you publish will be reviewed by the Agency and redacted for any possible classified information. I'm not a big fan of my former colleagues who write books about their careers and stuff. I think anybody below the level of Director of Central Intelligence should just keep their mouth shut about their careers, by and large. So I didn't want to write that type of book. I wanted to write a cocktail book. And I thought nothing could be easier to get through the Agency clearance process than a cocktail book. But, you know, and I dutifully sent it in and was amazed to see them come back with what I feel like are a significant number of redactions from some of the stories and anecdotes that are included along with drink recipes in the book.
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Mary Louise Kelly
And you left the redactions in. This is like reading a declassified document or memo with a big black strikeout. Yes.
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Rob Dannenberg
We tossed around the idea of trying to rephrase some of the things that we were writing to get them through the clearance process. And then at one point, Joe and I just looked at each other and said, I think it's actually pretty cool to have these redactions in there and let people guess what the text was that the Agency decided to blot out.
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Mary Louise Kelly
I'll just give people a little taste because I've got the book open. Let's see. This is page 19, and I'm looking at a sentence that reads, nearly the entire staff of the US Station would be out and about the city, departing at various times from their residence compounds, straining Russian surveillance resources. Except for there's a word before straining Russian surveillance resources. That is. That is blacked out. So that gives people a taste of what they'll be getting. All right, what's your favorite? I'm guessing surely you're going to tell me your favorite recipe here. Is vodka after all those years in Russia.
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Rob Dannenberg
Yeah. You know, there's no getting through a tour of duty or much less two tours of duty in Moscow without being obliged to tipple a little bit of vodka. It's certainly not my favorite spirit, but, you know, it is an important element in some of the cocktail recipes that are in the book. If I had to pick my favorite, Mary Louise, I'm kind of a classic guy in the sense that I like the Vesper martini as described by Ian Fleming in the James Bond novels.
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Mary Louise Kelly
Yeah.
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Rob Dannenberg
You know, when I'm gonna have an evening cocktail, that's usually the one I'll fix.
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Mary Louise Kelly
I am obviously not a spy and have never practiced espionage. But I will say as a reporter who has tried to work sources in Moscow, you're a journalist.
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Rob Dannenberg
You're a journalist and a reporter. Those are related traits.
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Mary Louise Kelly
And I found the same thing. It was difficult sometimes to get through an interview politely in Moscow with people forcing vodka on behind me, thinking, I cannot drink this and stay upright to finish this confusion.
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Rob Dannenberg
Exactly.
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Mary Louise Kelly
Something's got to give. I'm too much of a lightweighter here. Rob Dannenberg, former CIA officer, former CIA station chief in Moscow, thank you.
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Rob Dannenberg
My pleasure.
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Mary Louise Kelly
Rob Dannenberg's book is called A Spy Walked Into a Bar. And we'll end with a note of thanks to listeners who have left a rating or reviewed the show in recent weeks. If you are enjoying this podcast and if you can spare just 20 seconds on whatever platform you listen to, ratings and reviews go a long way to helping more new listeners find us. We're back on Thursday with our regular episode, breaking down the week's biggest national security news. I'm Mary Louise Kelly. Thanks for listening to sources and methods from NPR.
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NPR Announcer
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