Hormuz whiplash / Russia, Ukraine shred ceasefires / Modern warfare

Summary

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Podcast Summary: Sources & Methods – "Hormuz Whiplash / Russia, Ukraine Shred Ceasefires / Modern Warfare"

Host: Mary Louise Kelly (NPR)
Guests: Tom Bowman (Pentagon Correspondent), Charles Maynes (Russia Correspondent)
Date: May 7, 2026

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Episode Overview

This episode takes listeners inside the week’s biggest national security flashpoints:

• The rapid, confusing evolution of U.S. strategy and military operations in the Strait of Hormuz amid tensions with Iran
• Dueling, quickly-breaking ceasefires between Russia and Ukraine tied to the Victory Day commemorations
• The changing nature of modern warfare, where major militaries are stymied by determined resistance and technological shifts.

The reporting blends on-the-ground expertise, sharp political analysis, and behind-the-scenes insights from sources inside the Pentagon, Kremlin, and global intelligence community.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The "Whiplash" of US Strategy in the Strait of Hormuz

[00:17–09:44]

• Unprecedented volatility:

  • On Monday, the U.S. launches "Project Freedom" to escort ships through the Strait, aiming to restore commercial traffic and send a message to Iran.
  • Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth publicly touts the American “red, white and blue dome” of military protection over the strait.
  • By Tuesday night, President Trump abruptly pauses Project Freedom, keeping the U.S. blockade in place while diplomacy proceeds.
  • Trump warns on Wednesday that bombing will continue if Iran does not capitulate to U.S. terms.

    “It’s all systems go right up until Tuesday evening when President Trump hit the brakes hard.” – Mary Louise Kelly [03:59]

• Negotiation details:

  • The U.S. wants Iran to agree to a 20-year pause on enrichment, surrender a stockpile of enriched uranium, and reopen the strait.
  • Iran wants a shorter (5-year) pause and to retain limited enrichment. They also assert a sovereign right to control and even charge tolls for shipping through the strait.
  • Negotiations are being mediated by Pakistan, with information moving “back and forth, presumably passing slips of paper.”

    “What Iran wants is a five year pause [...] They claim a sovereign right to control the Strait of Hormuz.” – Tom Bowman [04:57]

• Commercial shipping stalled:

  • Over 1,500 ships, including oil tankers and large cargo vessels, remain frozen outside the strait, damaging global supply chains and driving up prices.
  • U.S. claims of a “protective dome” have not restored commercial confidence—no one is moving.
  • Gasoline prices in the U.S. are rising; “at my Delray Service center... it is now $4.57” – Tom Bowman [09:26]
  • The persistent impasse is likened to Jaws: “These ships aren’t going back through the Strait of Hormuz because it’s dangerous. They don’t want to get shot at by Iran. They’re not going to pay the tolls. So that’s where we are.” – Tom Bowman [07:05]

• Shift in U.S. diplomatic personnel:

  • Nick Stewart, a conservative Iran hawk with deep experience, is added to the U.S. team, potentially signaling a hard line but respected as a strong negotiator by both sides.

  “Everyone knows anything about the Iranians. They are mast negotiators.” – Tom Bowman [08:32]

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2. Russia-Ukraine: Shredded Ceasefires and a Shifting War

[11:30–18:32]

• Dueling ceasefire declarations:

  • Both Moscow and Kyiv announce ceasefires around Russia’s Victory Day (May 9), each challenging the other’s sincerity and timing.
  • Russia reduces its annual military parade to avoid presenting targets for Ukrainian strikes; tanks and heavy equipment are absent for the first time.
  • Security paranoia is high in Moscow: intense security, canceled Western media accreditation, and stark warnings against possible provocations.

    “I think there’s a sense that they’re vulnerable and this could be just a colossal PR disaster for the Kremlin.” – Charles Maynes [13:31]

• Ceasefire violations and ongoing conflict:

  • Despite truce declarations, Russian drone and missile attacks on Kyiv and Kharkiv have continued: “Russia attacked Ukraine with 102 drones. Ukrainian air defense forces shot down or neutralized 92 of them.” – Mary Louise Kelly [14:36]
  • The threat remains that either side could escalate as Victory Day nears, driven by political symbolism.

• Information and social control:

  • Russian authorities implement rolling internet and mobile data blackouts in several cities for security and information control, disrupting daily life and fueling public frustration.
  • The shrinking digital freedoms channel growing Russian public anger, not only about the war, but economic difficulties and government policy.

    “The cage is shrinking. And these mobile internet blockages... have really seemed to be like the final straw for a lot of people.” – Charles Maynes [16:10]

• Russian public mood & narrative:

  • Exhaustion and declining Putin poll numbers, as the war drags on with no clear end.
  • Putin continues to equate the current war in Ukraine with WWII, seeking legitimacy but running up against history—a war now outlasting the Soviet conflict with Nazi Germany.

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3. Modern Warfare: Mismatched Expectations, Stalemate, and Adaptation

[19:55–25:39]

• Powerful militaries stymied by resistance:

  • Both in Iran (Strait of Hormuz crisis) and Ukraine, the anticipated rapid victories by superior militaries have devolved into stalemates.

    “It seems like with both Ukraine and Iran, you could boil it down to a scenario of a very powerful military stymied by what they thought was going to be a much weaker opponent.” – Mary Louise Kelly [19:59]

• Faulty pre-war assumptions:

  • The Pentagon and the Kremlin both expected quick victories and underestimated the opposition.

    “The assumption at the Pentagon was the Russians will take Kyiv in three days... That’s what we were told two days before this war started.” – Tom Bowman [22:23]

• The realities of attrition and adaptation:

  • Russia and Ukraine are fighting a brutal war of attrition, increasingly reliant on drones and new technologies.
  • Russian adaptation noted; both sides have adjusted their tactics but remain deadlocked.

• Diminished U.S. attention to Ukraine:

  • With the Iran crisis dominating headlines, top U.S. officials are no longer asked about Ukraine—“Nobody has asked about Ukraine... It’s all Iran, all the time.” – Tom Bowman [24:18]
  • The prospect of a frozen front line and a possible demilitarized zone is discussed as the only realistic “best case,” though Ukraine would demand strong security guarantees from the U.S. and Europe.

• Rare openness from U.S. officials:

  • Notable moment: Secretary of State Marco Rubio holds an extended open press conference, taking questions—a “blast from the past” for seasoned reporters.

    “It was over an hour. What he did was what we all like to see as reporters.” – Tom Bowman [26:12]

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4. Open Source Intelligence (OSINT) Segment: Small Details, Big Revelations

[26:30–31:25]

• Strait of Hormuz mines and U.S. minesweepers:

  • Attention drawn to the absence of new U.S. littoral combat ships ("little crappy ships") intended for mine-clearing—they’re out of commission, forcing the U.S. to rely on alternative, largely undisclosed mine-sweeping means.

    “They have cost overruns, technical difficulties... Their nickname is the little crappy ship.” – Tom Bowman [27:16]

• Kremlin paranoia and internal threats:

  • New investigative reporting highlights security anxieties in the Kremlin—including fears that Putin might be targeted for assassination by drones or possibly by members of his inner circle; mentions former Defense Minister Shoigu, now Secretary of the Security Council, as a person of interest in rumors of succession intrigue.

    “Shoigu is Putin’s old fishing buddy... In the Putin system, he fails upward.” – Charles Maynes [28:20]

• Espionage: The ‘Forest of Antenna’ in Vienna:

  • Russia’s diplomatic housing in Vienna bristles with antennas, tied to a recent Austrian expulsion of three embassy staffers for suspected espionage exploits facilitated by a legal loophole.
  • Vienna remains a favored intelligence playground due to its international diplomatic presence and weak anti-spy laws.

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On Project Freedom and U.S. confusion:

  “I would call it whipsawed, head scratching, head spinning. Pick one of those.” – Tom Bowman [02:22]

• On diplomatic brinkmanship:

  “We have established a powerful red, white and blue dome over the strait.” – Pete Hegseth (read by Promo Voice) [03:16]

• On Russian war fatigue:

  “There’s just a sense of exhaustion here... This just keeps going on and on and there’s no end in sight.” – Charles Maynes [18:32]

• On shifting battlegrounds and ill-fated predictions:

  “The assumption at the Pentagon was the Russians will take Kyiv in three days... That’s what we were told two days before this war started.” – Tom Bowman [22:23]

• On open journalism:

  “It was over an hour. What he did was what we all like to see as reporters.” – Tom Bowman [26:12]

• On U.S. military capability gaps:

  “Where are the U.S. minesweepers? The new and fancy minesweepers... have not been seen and no one’s asked about them.” – Tom Bowman [27:16]

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• Hormuz Crisis & Whiplash: 00:17–09:44
• Russia-Ukraine Ceasefires & Security: 11:30–18:32
• Modern Warfare Realities: 19:55–25:39
• OSINT Segment (Anecdotes & Analysis): 26:30–31:25

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Episode Takeaways

• The U.S.-Iran standoff is marked by rapid reversals, hardball negotiating, and global economic fallout, with no solution in sight.
• Russia and Ukraine’s dueling ceasefires reveal both the symbolic gamesmanship and the grim reality of stalemated war, now shaped by internal political anxiety in Moscow and growing Russian disillusionment.
• Modern warfare’s lessons are being written in real time: powerful militaries consistently underestimate weaker but determined adversaries; technology and adaptation level the field.
• Even seemingly small details—an intelligence leak, an idle minesweeper, antennas in Vienna—can reveal the real, often hidden currents shaping national security crises.

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For those who missed the episode, this is an essential, expertly reported and deeply contextualized look at how world events are unfolding, reshaping modern warfare, and elevating the stakes in ways that affect us all.

Transcript

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[Tom Bowman]

This all reminds me of the movie Jaws. Remember the mayor said, hey, everything's great, you can just go back in the water. It's the same situation here. These ships aren't going back to through the Strait of Hormuz because it's dangerous. They don't want to get shot at by Iran. They're not going to pay the tolls. That has not changed

[Mary Louise Kelly]

the shapeshifting US Strategy on Iran. What is actually happening in the war is a deal within reach. Meanwhile, Russia and Ukraine break dueling ceasefires. This is Sources and Methods from N. I'm Mary Louise Kelley. If you are new here, welcome. Our name, sources and Methods is a term you may know from the intelligence world, shorthand for what do we know? And crucially, how do we know it? Every Thursday, I dive deep into the week's biggest national security stories with the NPR reporters covering them today. Here in the studio with me, NPR Pentagon correspondent Tom Bowman. Hello, Mr. Bowman.

[Tom Bowman]

Hello, Mary Louise and and out in

[Mary Louise Kelly]

the world, Russia correspondent Charles Mainz in our Moscow studio. Hey there and welcome back.

[Charles Maynes]

CHARLES Good to see you.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

It is Thursday. It is just after 2pm here in D.C. which means it's nine in the evening for you there in Moscow. Charles that's right. So it's funny, these timestamps keep feeling more and more relevant as we follow the US War in Iran because everything in that war is moving so fast and, and yet and we've said it on this podcast before, it also feels like we're going in circles this week. The perfect example, if you woke up Monday morning thinking you knew where this war was headed, you would probably have been wrong and I would have been wrong right there with you. Project Freedom was announced as a US Military operation to escort ships through the Strait of Hormuz. Tom we watched it start and end, succeed, fail, all of the above. None of the above. I can't keep track of that.

[Tom Bowman]

Just in a couple of days they pulled a plug on it.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

Head has to have been spinning.

[Tom Bowman]

I would call it whipsawed, head scratching, head spinning. Pick one of those.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

So I want to do a quick TikTok just to underscore and demonstrate how quickly things were changing. Monday we got what seemed like a major development when the US Launched Project Freedom, which was this attempt to allow commercial ships to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.

[Charles Maynes]

Iranian forces are strongly advised to remain well clear of U.S. assets and personnel operating international waters in and near the Strait of Hormuz.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

That is US Admiral Brad Cooper, head of the Military Central Command. He said this would be a big operation.

[Charles Maynes]

We've reached out to dozens of ships and shipping companies to encourage traffic flow through the strait.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

That was Monday. Then came Tuesday and a Press briefing from SecDef Pete Hegseth in which he sang the praises of Project Freedom, describing

[NPR Promo Voice]

it as a direct gift from the United States to the world. We have established a powerful red, white and blue dome over the strait. American destroyers are on stations supported by hundreds of fighter jets, helicopters, drones and surveillance.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

That image, Tom, of a red, white and blue dome, we're going to come back to that. But first I have to forge on later into the day Tuesday, because that was when Secretary of State Marco Rubio turned up in the White House briefing room. He took questions. He praised the operation, too.

[Marco Rubio]

Two US Flagged merchant ships have successfully transferred the Strait of Hormuz in the first stages of this project, and they're now safely on their way. The US Military is deploying the necessary assets to extend this defensive umbrella over commercial shipping. But there should be.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

So all systems go right up until Tuesday evening when President Trump hit the brakes hard. He announced on social media he was pausing Project Freedom and said the U.S. blockade of the Strait will remain in full force while a deal is worked out. But wait, there's more. On Wednesday, President Trump said if Iran does not agree to the U.S. s terms, the bombing will continue. So, Tom, happy Thursday.

[Tom Bowman]

Oh, where are we? Is it only Thursday?

[Mary Louise Kelly]

It's only Thursday. I'm sorry, my friend, where are we?

[Tom Bowman]

Well, the US Is waiting for Iranian officials to respond to what the US wants. What does the US want? A 20 year pause in any enrichment. It wants Iran to give up those thousand pounds of highly enriched uranium at 60%. That is at Isfahan, the nuclear facility. And buried under the bomb last year.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

Yeah.

[Tom Bowman]

And also they want the Strait to reopen. That's kind of where we are. What Iran wants is a five year pause. And they still want to enrich some uranium like they did under the Obama agreement. That was 3.67. Very, very minor. And also they claim a sovereign right to control the Strait of Hormuz. Just last night, the Iranian president was talking with the French President, Emmanuel Macron, and he basically said it's our right to basically charge tolls for ships to go through the Strait of Hormuz. Now do they really believe that? Is it a negotiating point? We'll have a sense today or tomorrow of the way ahead here. But you're right, President Trump said, you know, the talks are going great, we can pause this. Project Freedom. That red, white and blue dome, I guess is floating.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

Just stop. Red, white and blue dome.

[Tom Bowman]

What does that mean? Well, here's the thing they have.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

Is this like a play on Israel's iron.

[Tom Bowman]

I think it is. They have, you know, more than 100 aircraft overwatching the Strait of Hormuz. They have helicopters, fixed wing aircraft, warplanes, drones. They have ships there guiding, that would be guiding these commercial ships through the Strait of Hormuz. So that's what they mean by this dome.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

You just said the US Wants this, Iran wants this. How do we know what Iran wants? In what form are these demands being conveyed back and forth?

[Tom Bowman]

Well, it's through Pakistan. They're the mediator here.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

And passing slips of paper back and forth, presumably.

[Tom Bowman]

Yeah, they're the mediators, presumably, going back from Iran to the United States again through Pakistan. So what does Iran want again? They say it's our right to charge tolls through the Strait of Hormuz. I was talking with a shipping industry guy today and he said, well, no, that's international waters and freedom of navigation should be free. These guys aren't going to pay the tolls. None of the ships are moving. And also the ships weren't moving under Project Freedom. You know, Mary Louise, it reminds me

[Mary Louise Kelly]

of, just to be clear, they're still not moving. The street is still largely frozen.

[Tom Bowman]

No, that's right. There are 1500 ships, including, get this, 1000 ocean going vessels. So oil tankers, oil large ships and so forth. This all reminds me of both Project Freedom and the Iranian toll procedure. Reminds me of the movie Jaws. Get this, stay with me. After the shark attack, remember the mayor said, hey, everything's great, you can just go back in the water. It's the same situation here. These ships aren't going back through the Strait of Hormuz because it's dangerous. They don't want to get shot at by Iran. They're not going to pay the tolls. So that's where we are right now. And meanwhile, as we all know, gas prices are very high. The cost of fertilizer has increased because the ships aren't getting through the strait, and diesel as well. It's been incredibly harmful to the world economy. That has not changed.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

I'll just pause for a moment to allow everyone along with me to get the Jaws theme tune out of your head.

[Tom Bowman]

Oh, we should put that in. Now,

[Mary Louise Kelly]

one more question on the diplomacy and how this is unfolding because this is a side note, but might turn out to be significant. The Trump administration brought on a regional expert to the diplomatic team. This is somebody from the foundation for Defense of Democracies that's a pro Israel think tank that is focused on countering Iran. What does it mean that this new person's been brought on? Who is it?

[Tom Bowman]

His name is Nick Stewart and he has a lot of experience on Capitol Hill, also at the State Department under the first Trump administration, also with the UN Working Middle east issues, working Iran issues in particular, and working national security issues. And you're right, some people are pointing to this saying, wait a minute, the FDD is pretty conservative. They wanted this Iran war. They're very closely tied to Israel. But I was talking with someone who worked Iran issues under the Obama administration. They said, listen, this guy, Nick Stewart, he actually is a pretty good, pretty solid guy with solid experience. And everyone knows anything about the Iranians. They are mast negotiators.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

You briefly nodded to oil and gas prices. And I feel like we have all been experiencing the gas prices at your local gas station, Tom, along with you as this war has unfolded. Where are they?

[Tom Bowman]

At my Delray Service center in my neighborhood in Alexandria, Virginia. It is now 4:57. It is held steady, at least for the last week. But again, if they don't get a deal, if you, if those ships don't start moving, you could likely see my gas prices and your gas prices go up.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

Once again, you are pretty much on the national average. I was looking up this morning. AAA puts the average price of gas here in the US at $4.55 per gallon. That's the average as of today. And like you say, we're all watching to see if it will tick any higher. With that, we're going to take a break. When we come back, we check on another ceasefire. That's ahead on sources and methods from npr.

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[Mary Louise Kelly]

We're back. We're going to pivot to another ceasefire, or actually make that two ceasefires, dueling ceasefires between Moscow and Kyiv. Charles, you're in Moscow. Explain.

[Charles Maynes]

Well, you know, this has been a kind of gamesmanship around the commemoration of World War II we're having on May 9th here in Moscow Saturday. This is Saturday. They annually hold their their big military parade on Red Square. Coming in, Russia's Defense Ministry announced on orders of Russian President Vladimir Putin that they wanted a ceasefire from the 8th through the 9th. They also vowed if Kiev somehow violated that, that they would attack the center of K with overwhelming force. Then you have Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky steps in and he says, let's do it two days earlier and then see how Moscow responds. If the Russians essentially abide by the ceasefire, we will, too. And what we've seen so far is that the ceasefire hasn't held Russia still threatening to bomb Kyiv if Ukrainians take any actions. And all of this has unfolded as Russia, meanwhile, has been scaling back its military parade on Red Square. Every year we think of Red Square, you think of the tanks and the ICBM missiles and all this. That's all gone. It's just me, soldiers and press, and not even that much press. In fact, just about an hour ago, I got a call from the Kremlin that told us that our accreditation for the event has been reneged along with other Western media.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

Okay, hang on. Stay with that one for a second. You had gotten accreditation. You've covered this before, I assume. And Victory Day is commemorated every year. Did they give you a reason?

[Charles Maynes]

They said they were just reducing the amount of press that was allowed. Clearly, it's a security measure. I think there's been, we've certainly seen heavy security throughout Moscow. There are turrets on the bridges outside the Kremlin. But I think you're basically looking at a potentially Very lonely parade where you have Putin, the troops, he'll give a speech, but it should be a quite quick affair.

[Tom Bowman]

But the reason they're not having military equipment is they're afraid it's going to get whacked by Ukrainian missiles and drones. Isn't that right?

[Charles Maynes]

That's right. That's right. I think there's a sense that they're vulnerable and this could be just a colossal sort of, you know, PR disaster for the Kremlin, particularly at a moment when the war is, you know, increasingly unpopular in the Russian public. I think people. There's just a sense of exhaustion here at this point. Putin's own poll numbers are down, and I think they're doing everything they can to try and avoid some kind of scenario that just would play badly in the public.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

I mean, back to the idea of the ceasefires that were supposed to be taking hold as part of the Victory Day weekend. I noted that our Kyiv bureau this morning, as you well know, Charles, all of our overseas bureaus are supposed to file a little morning bulletin that comes into headquarters. This is what's happening in our patch of the world. And their advisory this morning was that overnight Russia attacked Ukraine with 102 drones. Ukrainian air defense forces shot down or neutralized 92 of them. That's according to Ukraine's air force. Also, Russian drones attacked Kharkiv. The city's mayor reported nine people injured, including three children. This indeed does not sound like much of a ceasefire.

[Charles Maynes]

It doesn't, but the question is, what happens on May 9th now, if, for example, Ukraine decides to stage some kind of attack, provocation, something? Does the Kremlin follow through with these threats to bomb the center of Kyiv? They've already warned from the Foreign Ministry here for foreign governments to get their diplomats out of the city. So it would seem they're not playing around, but we just don't know.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

Meanwhile, I was reading there have been all kinds of Internet blackouts, mobile phone blackouts, mobile data blackouts in Moscow, where you are, in St Petersburg, other cities. I mean, you're obviously talking to us now. You have connectivity. What's going on?

[Charles Maynes]

Yeah, it's been strange. Basically, mobile providers here said in the run up to May 9, from the 5th through the 9th, they were going to limit Internet activity. We had. I think it was on Tuesday we had a complete blackout of the Internet. Just nothing worked for half the day. So you had people who couldn't make bank payments, you couldn't get taxi apps to work. This is a modern society with, with digital services. Everywhere you look. So it really wreaked chaos. And suddenly the lever was lifted. They stopped throttling the Internet. Everything worked again. Last couple days have been reasonably okay, but they're promising on the 9th the complete blackout again. So there's just this feeling like it feels as though there's some guy who's behind the curtain somewhere who just has the master switch and he can turn it on or off at will.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

And what does that feel like to be. I mean, Russia has been through so much. Russians have been through so much these last few years. Is the CD feel more on edge than usual?

[Charles Maynes]

You know, it does, because essentially since, for the last couple years, we've seen the Internet blocked increasingly. So first it was blocking of, for example, news websites that were from independent Russian news websites, some Western media websites as well. Then you had blocking of social media. It was Facebook, it was YouTube, it was Instagram. People then shifted over to. To Telegram, and now they're throttling Telegram, and now they're going after VPNs, virtual private networks that allow people sort of mechanisms to get around some of these blockages. So slowly, slowly, you know, the cage is sort of shrinking. And these mobile Internet blockages have really seemed to be like the final straw for a lot of people. It hurts small businesses, people just to connect with their friends. It's hard to connect with people outside of the country. So it is really frustrating. And it's interestingly, become a way, almost a catalyst for why people are angry about the war in Ukraine. This war keeps dragging on and on. Their economic problems are growing, but somehow this Internet issue has been the way that sort of, like, for people to channel some of their anger over this.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

So what's the range of scenarios, best case, worst case, for how things could go this weekend?

[Charles Maynes]

Well, I think you're looking at. First we have to see what happens. I think the key question is whether Kyiv does use this moment to stage some kind of attack or whatever it might be. I think one concern also you have to keep in mind is that Moscow is very heavily protected, but maybe they use that opportunity to attack somewhere else. It's also something we can think about, but I think it's really important to point out that this is no longer just an event to honor the memory of victims of World War II, the soldiers who fought in the Soviet victory over Nazi Germany. Putin has spent the past several years now drawing a circle between that war 81 years ago now and the current war in Ukraine. This is sort of a new, you know, turn, meeting the challenge of conquering neo fascism in Ukraine, in his words. And so in this way, I think, you know, the absence of tanks and missiles, you could say on the one hand, well, who cares? But on the other hand, it's very clear why this is happening. And it speaks to the fact that this war in Ukraine is going on now longer than the Soviet war against the Nazi, Nazi Germany. And so it's a sense, it just feeds the sense again for many Russians that this just going on and on and there's no end in sight.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

After a short break, the changing nature of warfare. That's ahead on SOURCES and methods from NPR.

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[Mary Louise Kelly]

We're back with Tom Bowman and Charles Maines. We have talked in earlier episodes about the evolution of warfare, what the future of warfare may look like. And I want to leverage both of your reporting because it seems we've just spent the last 15, 20 minutes talking about war in Iran and then war in Ukraine. And it seems like with both Ukraine and Iran, you could boil it down to a scenario of a very powerful military stymied by what they thought was going to be a much weaker opponent. Are either of you surprised by the fact that that is not the way it's going?

[Tom Bowman]

Well, the big thing with Iran is they should have dealt with the Strait of Hormuz, the US should have early on, because that was clearly the only leverage Iran had, closing the strait to traffic, which would disrupt the US Economy and also the world economy. They did not do that. And here we are going into the third month where the strait is still closed. So that's a real problem. So that's the leverage Iran has with the Russian Ukraine war. I'm not sure if either side really has any leverage at this point. The problem now for both countries is it's a war of attrition. The Ukrainians need a lot more support from Europe. They seem to be getting it. They're not getting the support from the Trump administration that you saw during the Biden administration. I talked to some Western diplomats. I said, okay, what's the best case scenario here for Ukraine? And they said, freezing the front lines and maybe creating some sort of a demilitarized zone. That is the best way ahead. Now, will Putin buy that? We just don't know. He could basically say, well, I've grabbed some of their territory and I'm not giving it back.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

Or would Ukraine buy that, because they haven't been fighting all these years for nothing. Charles, how does what Tom was just saying line up against your reporting?

[Charles Maynes]

Well, it's interesting, you know, because what Tom mentions, these false assumptions as you go into a conflict, and I think that's what you saw in the Kremlin as well. There was an assumption that in three days, something like what we saw with the annexation of Crimea, where you had these, you know, sort of special forces come in and seize the peninsula from Ukraine back in 2014. I think the assumption was the same. You look at the force that was sent into Ukraine initially, about 150,000 people. You look at the supply chains that were put in place, and they clearly had this assumption that the Ukrainians would essentially say, thank you for coming in and thank you for getting rid of the government of Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

[Tom Bowman]

And if I could just add, the assumption at the Pentagon was the Russians will take Kyiv in three days. They'll take the whole country west of the Carpathian Mountains in three weeks. That's what we were told two days before this war started.

[Charles Maynes]

I think what's interesting is to see how. How both sides have really adapted and learned throughout this war. You look at the way the Russians made some big mistakes early on. The Ukrainian army came and basically pushed them back through half the country into the basically to the Dnieper River. But basically, Russia has adapted. There are moments where it seems that there's some kind of change in the battlefield kind of narrative, whether it's getting new weapons from the west and the Russians can't handle it. Then suddenly they kind of take a step back, they figure things out. And as Tom says it's now kind of ground to this kind of World War I style War of attrition where drones now play the primary role. And it's interesting to hear here in Moscow increasingly from nationalist types, from pro war bloggers and war correspondents who are embedded with the Russian forces, but with state media here acknowledging that no side can win at this point, they don't see an out at this point. And I think in some ways that also is contributing to some of the frustration with President Putin. Because if you about the last year with the Trump administration coming in, offering, at least on paper, Vladimir Putin a lot of what he was after, it seemed like a pretty good deal and a pretty good off ramp. Whether they could deliver is a different question. But still, and Putin said no, he seems to want more and increasingly he seems to be the only one who wants more.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

Tom, I'm thinking about the extent to which the war in Iran may be diverting U.S. attention, U.S. resources from Ukraine, the Sectev, Pete Hegseth, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs, they have been coming out and doing briefings at the Pentagon as the Iran war has unfolded. Do they even get asked about Ukraine? Does that even come up?

[Tom Bowman]

Nobody has asked about Ukraine. I would say in the last couple of months it's all Iran, all the time. But I think if there's a deal coming down the road and you could get a deal in the Strait of Hormuz first, and then you kick that nuclear issue down the road for the next months or many, many months, and then I think we'll go back to start talking about Ukraine because we are in the spring, there could be some spring offensives by the Russians and maybe the Ukrainians. And the issue with Ukraine now is really, tell me how this ends. Do you freeze the front lines? And then if they do that, if Ukraine agrees to that, they're going to want really good security guarantees from the United States and Europe so they can't get attacked again, that they will come to their aid if they are attacked again. And that's what is going on now behind the scenes. What kind of security guarantees can they get? They'll unlikely be a member of NATO. That's not going to happen. But what will the US Be willing to do with Europe to provide those guarantees? So the Russians, if they attack again, it'll be a big problem for Russia because Europe and the US Would get involved in this. That's kind of where we are.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

Just one more note on U.S. officials fielding questions about wars in other parts of the world. Marco Rubio, we mentioned he briefed at the White House this week. He took all kinds of questions.

[Marco Rubio]

I'll have a brief remarks here and then we'll get to your questions.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

It felt like a blast from the past. We have not seen that. We see it from President Trump. We have not really seen somebody step up to the White House lectern.

[Charles Maynes]

All right, let's go to the front right there.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

Secretary Rubio. Secretary Rubio. And take all kinds of questions from all major news organizations. In a little while on this, I

[Tom Bowman]

can't tell you how refreshing it was watching that news conference on the rising

[Mary Louise Kelly]

oil and gas prices. The president has said the that this is a small price to pay for getting rid of first.

[Sponsor/Advertiser Voice]

Are you taking part in those negotiations

[Mary Louise Kelly]

that you just detailed there?

[Tom Bowman]

You mentioned the two US Ships that

[Charles Maynes]

safely cross the Strait of Hormuz.

[Tom Bowman]

Are other ships being pulled? So many questions. It was over an hour. I think what he did was what we all like to see as reporters. Just have a long press conference, start calling on all of us and take time to do it and give us

[Mary Louise Kelly]

a couple hours for our deadline so that we can get it all filed and fact checked and all the rest.

[Tom Bowman]

Yes.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

Okay. With that, we will end with OSINT open source intelligence, the not so secret yet telling details that we stumble across in our reporting. Tom.

[Tom Bowman]

Okay, We've been talking about the Strait of Hormuz, about the Iranian threat mines in the Strait of Hormuz. The US Says they're dealing with the mines, but one question is, where are the US Minesweepers now? The new and fancy minesweepers that have the capability of sweeping from mines are called the littoral combat ships. They're nowhere to be seen. They have, however, had cost overruns, technical difficulties, all sorts of problems. So their nickname is the little crappy ship.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

But they do actually exist.

[Tom Bowman]

They exist.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

I don't know where they are.

[Tom Bowman]

Yeah, two were basically at the garage getting overhauled or getting the oil checked or something. So one was somewhere in the region, but they have not been seen and no one's asked about them. And where are they. But again, the US Says they're using other means to deal with the mines. We don't know what those are. Helicopters can actually drag a sled that can deal with the mine, explode the mine. But those issues of the mines getting through the Strait of Hormuz, if the little crappy ship doesn't show up, you're going to have to deal with it somehow.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

All eyes peeled for the little crappy ships.

[Charles Maynes]

Charles Top That Shoigu, that's my word. And it's not a thing. It's actually a person. It's the former Russian defense minister, now the secretary of the Security Council here. He's been in the news this week because of an intelligence report that was leaked to Western media and to a Russian independent investigative outfit called Important Stories about essentially.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

It's actually called Important Stories, Important Stories.

[Charles Maynes]

This is one of the small, little kind of upstart Russian investigative units that has fled the country and now works outside in Europe, but does some good reporting. And sort of the gist of this intelligence report was looking at kind of paranoia in the Kremlin and how Vladimir Putin is making steps to be extra careful about his whereabouts, covering his tracks. He's worried about a possible assassination attempt by a Ukrainian drone or more interestingly, by a member of his elite. And this is where Shoigu comes in, that Shoigu is mentioned as potentially sort of the driver of this, and it makes for interesting reading. It's been a source of a lot of debate here online in terms of how much veracity to put in this. We know that Putin is very careful about his security. That's been clear for a long time. He has matching offices in different parts of the country. So they've been able to sleuth this out by comparing the height of the electrical socket, for example, in the background. It's a little bit higher in one, a little bit lower in another. The door is a little bit to the left or to the right. But essentially, he's trying to mask where he is. And we know this, but in terms of, you know, Shoigu is Putin's old fishing buddy, his old hunting buddy, and he's a member of Putin's Cabinet. He's been with him for a long time. But he's also someone who essentially failed in his task as defense minister when they were executing the invasion of Ukraine. In the Putin system, he fails upward. He was given sort of a soft landing spot in the Security Council. And there are a lot of reasons where people might be skeptical that he would really be a challenge to Putin. But people are watching, watching.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

All right, I will land us. Mine is totally up your alley, Charles. It is the forest of antenna. That's a direct quote, forest of antenna bristling on the roof of the Russian Embassy. Also, a Russian diplomatic housing compound in Vienna, Austria, has just expelled three embassy staffers on suspicion of espionage. This is per Austria's Foreign Ministry, which says the antennas were being used to collect. Collect data, which makes me wonder, like what kind of data and from whom. I learned while reading in on this that Austria is working right now to try to close a loophole in its criminal code, a loophole that effectively allows spies to operate in Austria so long as they are not spying on Austria. But I guess anything else is fair game. And of course, it's a capital city. There are all kinds of foreign embassies there. It's also headquartered to OPEC headquarters to the iaea, the international nuclear inspectors. So no shortage of targets. Has this made any waves, any headlines where you are in Russia? Charles?

[Charles Maynes]

Yeah, this made some reports in the independent press, but it hasn't made into the Kremlin press. But interestingly, this is also Austria is also where these Obama era negotiations involving Iran and Russia took place round after round after round. And as Tom said, the Iranians are tough negotiators. And this was where they were meeting. It was considered central soil for everybody.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

Watch out for the roof antennas. All right. I'm going to say a big thank you. That wraps us up. NPR Russia correspondent Charles Mains and Pentagon correspondent Tom Bowman. Thank you, gentlemen.

[Tom Bowman]

You're welcome.

[Charles Maynes]

Thank you.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

And before we go, a note of thanks. If you are one of the many listeners who have left us a rating or review on the podcast platform where you listen, we're going to shout out this week one of those listeners, Ed Davis, who wrote on Apple that we are his favorite podcast. And he said the intelligence, depth and humanity of Mary Louise, Tom Bowman and others is always insightful and refreshing. This is now my number one podcast.

[Tom Bowman]

Thanks for the shout out.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

Yeah. Fan mail for you. Take a bow and thank you, Ed. We appreciate your writing and listening. And I have to say, in a world of algorithms that goes such a long way toward helping more listeners find our show. So we are going to be shouting out listeners all this month as we have saying thank you. That's it for today's episode. I'm Mary Louise Kelly. We're back next week with another episode of Sources and Methods from npr.

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