A (3:49)

Succession. What happens now? Who's next?

C (3:52)

We don't know. And you know, if this were normal times, Iran has a council of, sorry, an assembly of experts, a little bit like the Catholic Church, when the Pope dies, the College of Cardinals selects a new one. Well, Iran has a, has an assembly of experts, 88 Islamic jurists. If the Supreme Leader, the Ayatollah, dies, then they select another one. Well, obviously not a normal time. That's only happened Once before anyway, 37

A (4:19)

years ago, only been two supreme leaders.

C (4:22)

Exactly. But that would be the normal process. We're in the middle of a conflict now. It may fall quickly to the security forces and the Revolutionary Guards. That's what we're hearing. In fact, Reuters had a report that the CIA did a recent assessment and wasn't really sure what was going. But their best guess, or their best thinking was the Revolutionary Guards or some elements of it would take over quickly

A (4:48)

from each of you. Do we know where we are in this operation? President Trump today suggested that Americans should be braced for casualties. He said this type of thing happens in a war. But we're not hearing anything about American ground troops, Greg.

C (5:02)

That's true because the US does have a small number of ground troops that are permanently at bases in the region, but they have not all clustered together. They're not near the Iranian border. And even if you add them all up, it's not nearly the size of a force you would need. In fact, doing the math, some of the previous wars, it's maybe 10 or 20% of the ground troops the US had in Iraq previously got it. Those wars, ground war seems very, very unlikely. Just isn't on the table, given the resources that are there right now.

A (5:33)

DANIEL what are Israeli officials saying? Has Prime Minister, Prime Minister Netanyahu given any sense of how far along in this operation he thinks things are?

B (5:43)

Well, all they're saying is that it's going to take as long as necessary. And they, the Israelis have announced that already today they carried out the largest aerial operation, the largest air force operation in Israeli history with around 200 fighter jets. So a real blitz at the very beginning. A person briefed on this operation has told me that we're expecting another couple of days of intense strikes in Iran and retaliatory strikes in Israel as well. So we're looking at Sunday and Monday at least, and it could go on for many more days.

A (6:19)

So President Trump, when he spoke to Americans today, he was facing cameras. He was in Mar a Lago. He was addressing Americans about an American military action. He also had a message for Iran.

D (6:32)

To the great proud people of Iran, I say tonight that the hour of your freedom is at hand. Stay sheltered, don't leave your home. It's very dangerous outside. Bombs will be dropping everywhere. When we are finished, take over your government, it will be yours to take. This will be probably your only chance for generations.

A (6:55)

Craig Myre, how should we understand this? The President of the United States calling on the people of Iran rise up.

C (7:02)

Sounds like regime change. And that really just jumped out at me when I first listened to this because this is the first time Trump really revealed what he wants. He'd been very vague and fuzzy about that. Also, it goes against what he's been saying for a decade, that he doesn't want to get the US Involved in open ended forever wars. And in the Middle east, the two previous wars were Iran, to the west, Iraq and Afghanistan. He's picked the country right between them to launch another major military operation.

A (7:37)

So we are of course working to get reaction from inside Iran, try to figure out what is happening there. I was swapping messages on WhatsApp this morning with contacts on the ground in Tehran. They were not willing to go on the record, but the fact that they could respond, they are on the Internet or at least were at that hour. They have access to social media. If they're behind a vpn, our colleague. And Arzu Rizvani has also been in contact with people in Iran. Among them a 30 something year old who we are identifying as V. V lives in Tehran, gave only his first initial because of fear of retribution. He told Arzu he was settling into work when these attacks started and suddenly

B (8:17)

heard some loud noises and then the explosions. We even saw one of the explosions from our office window. It was around the middle of the city, downtown Tehran.

A (8:29)

Arzu also reached a 22 year old college student who requested complete anonymity. She woke up to the sound of explosions. She says this is a day she's long hoped for. So she's saying there, and I quote, I am ready to be killed by a bomb if it means the certain death of even a few of our regime officials. So a little bit of reaction there from inside Iran. Daniel, walk us through the stakes for the rest of the region. We mentioned Iran's response, lobbying missiles. If you look at a map of the Middle east, it's lit up with places that Iran fired missiles at today. And then aside from all the military activity, the Strait of Hormuz has been closed. Explain what that is, what that means in the region.

B (9:17)

Right. Well, the Strait of Hormuz is a strategic waterway. It's controlled by Iran. It is crucial to the world's oil trade. So this could affect global oil prices. But you know, just, I think we just have to take a moment to take this in.

C (9:30)

Right.

B (9:31)

Iran's supreme leader has been killed. According to President Trump, Iran has struck back at seven countries. Today, the Dubai International Airport in the United Arab Emirates, a major global hub, was hit. We've seen videos of that. A building not far from me in Tel Aviv was hit, causing serious injuries. Reportedly a woman, a young woman in her 40s, was killed. These are extraordinary events, even after two and a half years of extraordinary war and extraordinary events. And the repercussions will be felt throughout the region.

A (10:04)

Greg, quick last word from you.

C (10:06)

Yeah. To just echo. Daniel, this is a shock to the system. You may think you're ready for it, but you're not. You may think, my goodness, we're going to have a new country or my goodness, how do I protect my family? And after that surge of emotion, this will play out for many days to come. And you may find out you don't end up exactly where you think you will.

A (10:24)

That is NPR national security correspondent Greg Myhre and NPR international correspondent Daniel Estrin in Tel Aviv, two of the many NPR reporters who have been at it all day today. Thanks to you both.

C (10:36)

Sure thing, Mary Louise. Thanks, Mary Louise.

A (10:39)

And that's a wrap on today's second special episode of Sources and Methods. It has been a day. And a reminder, you can email us with your feedback and your questions at Sources and methods. That's all one word. Sourcesandmethodspr.org if you're enjoying the show, you can support us by leaving a rating or review on the platform where you listen. In a world of algorithms that goes a long way toward helping new listeners find our show. I'm Mary Louise Kelly. We're back Thursday with our next regular episode of Sources and Methods from npr.