SOURCES & METHODS (NPR)

Episode: "Is ISIS making a comeback?"

Date: December 18, 2025
Host: Mary Louise Kelly
Guests: Tom Bowman (Pentagon Correspondent), Jane Araf (Middle East Correspondent, based in Amman)

Episode Overview

This episode confronts the unsettling question: Is ISIS making a comeback? Prompted by two recent high-profile attacks—one in Syria that killed three Americans, and another in Australia that targeted a Hanukkah celebration—Mary Louise Kelly convenes NPR national security correspondents Tom Bowman and Jane Araf. The discussion explores the current capabilities of ISIS, the resilience of its ideology, the U.S. military mission in Syria, instability following regime change, and how these regional events connect to global security. The episode also touches on U.S.-Venezuela tensions over oil and closes with "open-source intelligence" (OSINT) insights from the field.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Did ISIS Ever Really Disappear? (03:32)

• ISIS remains ideologically potent even after losing territorial control in 2019.
• Jane Araf: "They didn't. ...territorially they were defeated with quite a lot of fanfare in 2019, but that didn't mean they went away. Ideologically, of course, they're still a very big deal." (03:32)
• The group has been forced to decentralize and focus on regions like Africa, but still operates in Syrian deserts, leveraging ungoverned spaces to hide and launch attacks.
• Communications and fundraising abilities are reduced due to anti-ISIS operations.

2. Recent Attacks and Ongoing Threats (01:47–06:56)

• Recent attacks: Three Americans (including two Iowa National Guard members) killed near Palmyra, Syria (last Saturday); Father and son attack at Hanukkah celebration, Bondi Beach, Australia (Sunday), resulting in at least 15 deaths.
• Both incidents allegedly linked to ISIS, reigniting fears about ISIS's resurgence.

Attack Details:

• The Syria attack occurred at Al Tanf ("a remote corner of Syria where three countries meet: Syria, Iraq, and Jordan" (05:42)).
• The shooter, newly recruited into local security forces, had been under surveillance for ISIS sympathies. He was moved off-base, but "[...] when the American soldiers [and] U.S. interpreter came with the Syrian forces, he opened fire with an AK47 [...] then he was killed in return." (06:08)

3. U.S. Partnership and Regional Instability in Syria (06:56–09:45)

• Discussion on President Ahmed El Sara's ability to control security in Syria; doubts about the reach of his government, especially in remote desert ("Badia") regions.

  • Quote — Tom Bowman:
    “The shooter was only part of the Syrian military for a couple of months when he opened fire with a machine gun, killing these two guard guys and also wounding three others. Two seriously wounded.” (04:34)

• U.S. sees the Syrian president as a partner in fighting ISIS, despite his past ties to Al Qaeda.

  • Jane Araf: "He doesn't have control over a lot of the country. ...It seems he is trying very hard, as does the Secretary of Defense, to make clear that... the Syrian president, in their view, is a partner in the fight against ISIS, which is... Also fascinating because Al Shara... is ex Al Qaeda himself." (07:49)
  • Tom Bowman: "A jihadi never changes. So clearly within the administration, I think you have differing opinions about where this thing should be going." (08:15)

• On Regional Dangers: Despite the celebration after Assad’s fall, fear and violence persist, particularly among minorities, and in the vast, lawless desert areas, "the war has not really ended in some respects." (08:46–09:45)

4. U.S. Military Mission in Syria — Why Are Troops Still There? (11:45–15:30)

• Despite Trump’s 2018 declaration that the U.S. would withdraw after ISIS defeat, military advisors convinced him to keep troops to ‘protect oil fields’ and suppress ISIS remnants.

  • Tom Bowman: "The military talked him out of it and this is how they did it. Sir, you know, there's some oil fields there that we should really keep an eye on... So at that time, 2,000 US forces going after the remnants of ISIS and also protecting these oil fields." (12:20)

• The U.S. mission remains officially dual-purpose: fight ISIS and safeguard oil fields.

• National Guard involvement: They often provide critical support alongside special forces, with more than 20,000 National Guard soldiers deployed globally.

  • Bowman: “And a lot of times they're training, but also they're accompanying troops on some of these combat missions...” (13:35)

• The U.S. presence is intentionally discreet due to widespread local opposition to foreign troops.

5. Future Risks and Complexity of ISIS Threat (14:31–16:17)

• No signs of a mission reset in the wake of recent attacks; cooperation with Syrian/Kurdish forces continues.

• ISIS sympathizers represent a global danger, including in the West. The boundaries between “direct” ISIS involvement and attacks “inspired by” ISIS are legally, tactically, and politically blurry.

  • Jane Araf: "We still don't know if this was a guy...inspired by ISIS or whether he was part of the organization. One would think it would more likely be the former...when we've seen ISIS attacks, they tend to be complex...this was a guy with an AK47 who did tremendous damage..." (15:30)

• Communication between US and Syrian forces before the attack: Syrians warned US forces to “lie low” due to their investigation of the shooter—unclear whether this advice was heeded. (16:17)

Segment: U.S. Pressure on Venezuela and Global Oil Politics (19:03–24:26)

6. Venezuela: Oil, Blockades, and Escalation

• New U.S. policy: Trump orders blockade of sanctioned oil tankers moving in and out of Venezuela, aiming to cripple Maduro’s regime financially. (19:03)

  • Tom Bowman: “Nothing's been stolen [re: Trump’s reference to stolen oil]. Matter of fact, Chevron, the oil company, is operating in Venezuela under US Approval. So they're not stealing anything.” (19:48)

• Blockade described as ‘partial’ to avoid a legal act of war. Pentagon is silent on details, but expert sources say a small naval force could monitor Venezuela's export terminals.

• Logistical complexities: “Fuel for a destroyer at least weekly is very expensive. ...If you have a tanker fully loaded and it doesn't stop, then what do you do? You'd have to do a helicopter assault...” (22:32)

• Direct military conflict risk: Trump has spoken of “possibly hitting land targets” in Venezuela, and announced a CIA “covert” ground mission—though, as Bowman drily notes, “when you announce it, it's called overt.” (23:43–24:26)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the resilience of ISIS:
  • Jane Araf (03:32): “Ideologically, of course, they're still a very big deal.”
• On the realities of Syria's instability:
  • Jane Araf (08:46): “The war has not really ended in some respects.”
• On U.S. military logic for not withdrawing from Syria:
  • Tom Bowman (12:20): "The military talked him out of it and this is how they did it. They said, Sir, you know, there's some oil fields there that we should really keep an eye on..."
• On the politics of military video releases and secrecy:
  • Tom Bowman (24:53): "The reason they all say you don't want to release that second video [of the alleged drug boat attack] is because the public would not want to see what the US Military is doing to survivors... It's disgraceful."
• On the blurred lines between security forces and former ISIS members in Syria:
  • Jane Araf (26:52): "How many people we run into who were with ISIS... Even when we're interviewing people, on occasion, they will allude to having been part of ISIS. Which doesn't mean that Syria is a hotbed of ISIS people waiting to strike. It just means it's part of the fabric there."
• On waste in U.S.-led reconstruction projects:
  • John Sopko via Mary Louise Kelly (30:13): “We bought about 20 airplanes from Italy that were in a junkyard in Sicily... $480 million on it. And the planes couldn't fly."

Important Timestamps

• ISIS: Territorial vs. ideological threat: 03:32–04:29
• Details on the Syria attack & base: 05:24–06:56
• U.S. military and political dilemmas post-Assad: 08:46–09:45
• Why U.S. troops remain in Syria: 12:08–13:29
• National Guard's role in Syria: 13:29–14:09
• ISIS threat—foreign fighters and inspiration risk: 15:30–15:56
• Venezuela oil blockade & potential escalation: 19:03–24:26
• OSINT Section: Secrecy, ex-ISIS fighters among Syrian security, Afghan waste: 24:26–31:05

Tone & Originality

The episode features a direct, experienced journalistic tone—seasoned, measured, occasionally sardonic (especially regarding administration policy justifications and military secrecy). Guest correspondents share both data-rich assessments and personal reporting vignettes, conjuring vivid on-the-ground realities.

Conclusion

This episode serves as a nuanced, sobering look at ISIS’s persistence and the geopolitics enveloping U.S. military decisions in Syria. The conversation peels back layers of official narratives, grapples with “comeback” vs. “never left” ISS analysis, exposes the murky status quo post-Assad, and connects regional violence to America’s larger security calculus. It closes with sharp, sometimes darkly humorous reminders of the unintended consequences—and sometimes absurdities—of military and reconstruction efforts abroad.