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This message comes from NPR sponsor Charles Schwab with its original podcast on Investing. Each week you'll get thoughtful, in depth analysis of both the stock and the bond markets. Listen today and subscribe@schwab.com oninvesting or wherever you get your podcasts.
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Hi, it's Mary Louise. A quick word before today's episode 2025 is almost over. And at NPR and our local stations, we are excited to begin a new year. This year was tough. The lawsu of federal funding for public media attacks on the free press. Despite it all, we are not shying away from our jobs, not shying away from exercising the critical right to editorial independence guaranteed by the First Amendment. With your support at npr, we will continue our work without fear or favor, and we will continue to bring you episodes of this show that keep you updated on the biggest national security news of the week with our team of veteran reporters, supporters and guests who know the NATSEC world firsthand. If you're already an NPR supporter, thank you. We want you to know how important your support is right now. If you're not a supporter, you can become one right now, before the end of the year. Atplus.NPR.org Sign up to unlock a bunch of perks, things like bonus episodes and more from across NPR's podcasts. Plus, you get to feel good about supporting public media while you listen. End the year on a high note. It's invest in a public service that matters to you. Visit plus.NPR.org today. Thank you. Here's the show.
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Although they're not that big in numbers, they do retain the capability to draw in forces and create instability.
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We were told the Islamic State was wiped out, that its caliphate had collapsed in 2019. Then this past week saw two high profile attacks in Australia and in Syria, allegedly allegedly linked to the terrorist group. Is ISIS making a comeback? And what do these attacks reveal about the strength of a group that was supposed to be dormant? This is SOURCES and METHODS from npr. I'm Mary Louise Kelly. Every Thursday on this podcast, we look at some of the week's biggest national security stories with the NPR reporters who are out there covering them. This week. I welcome back my buddy at the Pentagon and pr, Pentagon correspondent Tom Bowman. Hi.
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D
Hey, Mary Louise.
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B
Hey. And correspond Jane Araf, who covers the Middle east from her base in Amman. And this is your first time on SOURCES and methods. Welcome.
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C
Thank you so much.
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B
As we tape this, it is Thursday. It's a little afternoon, just past 12:30pm here on the East Coast. That makes it evening 8:30pm where you are in Jordan, Jane?
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C
Yes, exactly.
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Okay, let's dive in. It was a deadly weekend in Syria and in Australia. Here's what happened. Last Saturday, three Americans were killed near Palmyra, Syria. Two of them were National Guard members from Iowa. Then on Sunday, a father and son opened fire at a Hanukkah celebration at Bondi beach in Australia, killing at least 15 people there. The attackers are accused of supporting the Islamic State. So, Jane, let's start there. I mean, these events are, of course, making people question, is ISIS making a comeback? I wonder if the better question might be, did ISIS ever really go away?
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C
That is so well put, because as we've seen, they didn't. And you remember that territorially they were defeated with quite a lot of fanfare in 2019, but that didn't mean that they went away. Ideologically, of course, they're still a very big deal.
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B
And are they more than that? I mean, are they still a coherent group with capabilities?
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C
They definitely have capabilities, but certainly not the capabilities that they had. They have far fewer fighters. It has become, by necessity, a much more decentralized organization. A lot of the communications have been cut by anti ISIS operations, as well as their ability to fundraise. So they've been focusing quite a lot on Africa. But Syria is still one of their main bases. And they've never really gone away in those parts of the desert where it's easy to hide and then come out and launch operations and go back again.
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B
Jane, I've got a ton more questions on Syria, but Tom Bowman, just hop in here. How's the Pentagon thinking about isis?
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D
Well, yeah, they dispersed into these ungoverned areas after Bashar Al Assad fell. The U.S. is striking them here and there, but it's still a very serious threat. And one of the big challenges now is the US Wants to work with Syrian forces, as they did in this situation where the guard guys were killed. They want to work with them more. But the problem is the Syrian military, much like the country, is fractured. The training isn't that great for some of these militias coming into the Syrian military. The ve that good. This shooter was only part of the Syrian military for a couple of months when he opened fire with a machine gun, killing these two guard guys and also wounding three others. Two seriously wounded.
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B
Yeah. Jane, just weigh in any other details we should know. We've been circling around, but we haven't actually spelled out what happened in Syria this past weekend.
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C
What seems to have happened is that you have this base called Al Tamf it's called a garrison, actually, and usually it's a couple of hundred soldiers.
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B
Just pause there, because that's a name that may not be familiar to a lot of Americans. This is a L, T, A, N, F. That's the name you're saying.
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C
Exactly.
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B
Okay, go on.
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C
And so it's in this really remote corner of Syria where three countries meet. It's Syria, Iraq, and Jordan. And they've been there for years. It alternates between the 10th Mountain Division and the National Guard. So they were out when they ended up in Palmyra at one of the small fortified bases for what we call a key leader engagement.
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B
Right.
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C
Meeting local officials. Apparently, the alleged shooter, who had joined security forces fairly recently, had been under surveillance for the last two months. He had apparently originally been stationed inside the base. And when the Syrians decided that he might be a little suspicious, they started investigating, trying to find out whether he was actually an isosympathizer or actually part of the organization. At that point, they moved him out of the base, and that's where he was nearby when the American soldiers. U.S. interpreter came with the Syrian forces, and he opened fire with an AK47 with a rifle, and then he was killed in return.
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B
Among the many questions that raises is so many questions. So many questions. But I'll focus us on this one. Syria's newish leader, the guy who's supposed to be in charge of the country, this is President Ahmed El Sara. It raises questions about his ability to control security inside Syria. I want to play a little bit. President Trump was actually asked about that on Tuesday.
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Do you still have confidence in the Syrian president?
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D
I do. I mean, this had nothing to do with him. Of Syria that they really don't have much control over. And it was a surprise. He feels very badly about it. He's working on it. He's a strong man. And no, this had nothing to do with the Syrian government. This had to do. This had to do with isis.
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B
This had to do with isis, says Trump. But talking about that, the Syrian president. This is a corner of Syria that he doesn't have control over.
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C
Well, he doesn't have control over a lot of the country. And that's really interesting that Trump put it that way, isn't it? I mean, he is. He seems to be trying very hard, as does the Secretary of Defense, to make clear that. That Syria, or at least the Syrian president, in their view, is a partner in the fight against isis, which is.
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B
Also fascinating because Al Shara, as we know, is, is ex Al Qaeda himself.
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D
And it's funny along those lines, I was talking to someone of the NSC National Security Council earlier this year who was not in favor of working with Shara. He said a jihadi never changes. So clearly within the administration, I think you have differing opinions about where this thing should be going.
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B
And I want to close out this portion of the conversation by just letting you paint a picture of quite how big the challenge is because, Jane, unlike Tom and me, you were just in Syria to report on the first anniversary of the end of the Assad regime.
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C
Yes. And it was extraordinary. I mean, the obviously celebration and obviously quite a lot of fear because there have been mass killings of some of the minorities. But I was thinking back to when I went to Al Tanf, the base where these National Guard soldiers were operating out of, and it was just a week or two after the fall of the regime and it was a very long drive from Damascus. So we drive down the highway. It's the Baghdad to Damascus highway. And all along the sides of the road are disabled Russian tanks and regime tanks. And if you go in a little bit further than that, and you don't go in a little bit further than that because there are landmines everywhere. So it's still in many senses a country, particularly in that what they call the Badia area, the desert area that is huge, where, you know, the war has not really ended in some respects.
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B
Wow, that's such an image. These carcasses of old tanks from multiple armies still just by the side of the road. All right. Let's take a break. When we get back, what are American forces doing in Syria? That's ahead on SOURCES and METHODS from npr.
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And we're back. American troops have been in Syria for about a decade now to fight isis. And Tom Bowman, I am confused because here's what President Trump then in his first term said. This was back in 2018 and we.
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D
Have won against ISIS. We've beaten them and we've beaten them badly. We've taken back the land and now it's time for our troops to come back home.
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B
That's a video posted to Twitter seven years ago almost to the day, December 19, 2018, saying there we're pulling out time for US troops to come home from Syria.
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D
Well, the military talked him out of it and this is how they did it. They said, sir, you know, there's some oil fields there that we should really keep an eye on. So the Turks don't get it, the Russians don't get it. And they talked him into keeping, you know, at that time, 2,000 US forces going after the remnants of ISIS and also protecting these oil fields.
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B
So this is a dual mission, correct? At least semi officially or, you know, okay, protect the oil and fight isis.
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D
Right. Go after the remnants of ISIS with these Kurdish fighters. Right. And I was there five years ago, Mary Louise, in far northeast Syria with the West Virginia National Guard protecting one of these oil fields. We saw them a few days later. They had come under attack by drones dropping grenades. And these guys were really lucky they made it out without anybody getting killed or wounded. I saw the results of these grenades. Took big chunks out of the parking area, peppered their armored Humvees with shrapnel. These guys were really, really lucky. So it shows you it's still very dangerous over there for these National Guard troops.
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B
Why National Guard? Just stay on that piece. Why isn't this all Special Forces or active duty military?
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D
Right. Well, they do have Special Forces up in northeast Syria and also with Delta Force as well. But for support, they turned to these Guard guys. Right. Mary Louise, there are more than 20,000 National Guard troops scattered all around the world Training with the Europeans, with Africans in Asia, South America. And a lot of times they're training, but also they're accompanying troops on some of these combat missions. And I think most people, when they think of the National Guard, they think, well, they're on American streets in Washington, D.C. but they have a huge role to play all around the world.
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B
Jane, what have you seen of the US Footprint, I guess, in Syria, but also just in the region?
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C
It's a very discreet footprint for the most part. And that's intentional because as you know, US Forces, foreign forces in general, are not that popular in Syria. That's an understatement.
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B
Is there any chatter that you are hearing from military circles here, Tom, about rethinking the mission, revisiting, like, how should we be there? What are we doing there in the wake of what happened, the deadly attack last weekend?
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D
No, absolutely not. They're still concerned about the remnants of ISIS going after them, working with the Syrian government. Admiral Brad Cooper, who's the new head of U.S. central Command, what he has said is he wants to bring the Kurdish forces into the Syrian military number one. And the other thing he wants to do is continue partnering with the Syrian military to make sure that doesn't become another hotbed for isis, so they can really contain it. But as we see in Australia, there are a lot of sympathizers for isis. We'll probably see more of that in the future. Those who are inspired by isis, not only in places like Australia, but likely in Europe. There's a huge worry of some of these folks heading into Europe and doing the same thing there.
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C
And on that point, we still don't know if this was a guy who was inspired by ISIS or whether he was part of the organization. One would think it would be more likely to be the former, because when we've seen ISIS attacks, they tend to be complex attacks. You know, they involve explosives, suicide belts, gunmen. This was a guy with an AK47 who did tremendous damage, and ISIS has.
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B
Not claimed responsibility for less, sadly.
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D
And just one point there, I was told it was not an ak, but actually a machine gun that did this damage. But. But they're still investigating it. And also, as Jane knows, the Syrians said that the Americans were giving a warning about a possible situation like this. I asked people about that. They said, we're just still investigating it.
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C
So what I've been told on the Syrian side is that two months ago, when they started investigating this guy, they advised American forces to kind of lie low for a bit, not do so many key leader engagements not be out and about so much. We don't know what happened with that.
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B
You know, I'm thinking when we launched this podcast, we promised we'd hear reporters swapping sources, trying to figure out what's happening in real time with a, with a murky situation where there are a lot of details we still don't know yet. And here we are, we're doing it. We're gonna take a short break. When we get back, we're gonna keep talking oil, but in a different part of the world because oil is now front and center in the rising tensions with Venezuela. That's ahead on Sources and Methods from npr.
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B
How it started, alleged drug smuggling boats. How it's going, oil tankers. We're talking Venezuela and we're talking the growing US Pressure on that country. The latest twist, President Trump has ordered a blockade on all sanctioned oil tankers moving in and out of Venezuela. Oil is Venezuela's main source of money. In a post on social media, Trump said Venezuela is using oil to fund drug trafficking and other crimes. He vowed to continue the US Military buildup until the country gave back the US Oil land and assets that it had, quote, stolen from us. Tom, pick up there. Stolen from us. What's he talking about?
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D
We don't know. Nothing's been stolen. Matter of fact, Chevron, the oil company, is operating in Venezuela under US Approval. So they're not stealing anything. I think what Trump would like is.
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B
He talking about going way back, like to the 70s.
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D
It's hard to say when there were.
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B
More US oil companies in Venezuela.
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D
Well, Venezuela has nationalized the oil in its country, so maybe that's what he's talking about. He would like to see it privatized, which could happen if President Maduro of Venezuela goes. But no one is stealing anything, so it's hard to understand exactly what he's talking about.
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B
Okay, so we'll keep trying to figure that one out. I was struck because you and I, Tom, have talked many times, many times on this podcast on sources and methods since September, when the US Began these deadly strikes on alleged drug smuggling boats in the Caribbean, in the Eastern Pacific. And we've been asking questions, Is it legal? What's the big picture goal here? And then last week, the US Ups the ante, seizes an oil tanker off the coast of Venezuela. That seems significant because it's the first move that doesn't have anything to do with drug traffic.
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D
No, you're absolutely right. We were talking many times about, what is this? Is this going after the drug cartels by blowing up these alleged drug boats? Is it going after Maduro? Now, clearly we see this as going after Maduro, trying to overthrow him by, you know, crippling his economy, going after these oil tankers. There are ghost ships that are moving illicit oil. And again, Chevron is moving legitimate oil. So that's what we're seeing now is going after these illicit oil tankers, tankers.
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B
That are on a U.S. sanctions list. And so we just said, Trump says there's going to be a blockade of sanctioned tankers.
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D
Well, he's calling it a partial blockade. And I think one of the reasons is a full blockade of a country is illegal. It's basically you're going to war with the country if you blockade it. So there's very little information coming out. And when Trump announces this, a lot of times the Pentagon, and we're not in the Pentagon anymore, and we're not getting briefings, so we're not. No one's explaining exact. Tell me how this works. So I had to reach out to this retired admiral. I know, a senior admiral. And I said, you know, walk me through how this would work. And he said, hey, hey, Tom. I'm reading the message he sent me. He said, hey, Tom. Venezuela has 10 oil exporting terminals. A ring of ships, US ships, maybe five or six, spaced 40 miles apart is more than enough. Helicopters do most of the surveillance service. Radar is good to 25 miles, so detection would be layered. The problem is logistics. Fuel for a destroyer at least weekly is very expensive. So we have to set up a round robin of refueling schedule for these destroyers. Three refuelers doing the job. It's very expensive. The problem is if you have a tanker fully loaded and it doesn't stop, then what do you do? You'd have to do a helicopter assault. Conceivably, the crew could batten down the hatches and just keep going. And you can't blow it up because it would be an environmental disaster. That's a good point. Yeah. He ends on something. I can't say on public radio.
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B
It's fascinating to hear the way an admiral thinks through this.
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D
Salty.
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B
Let's say salty. We'll go with salty. I mean, you just said a full blockade would be an act of war. What are you learning about what the US's plan here is? Setting aside what the end goal in terms of oil or toppling Maduro or anything else, like how close are we getting to a direct military conflict?
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D
Well, again, Trump himself has said we may start hitting land targets. So what are the land targets? Is it, you know, government buildings? Is it military facilities? We don't get a sense of exactly what the targets would be. We do know that Trump announced that the CIA is on the ground in Venezuela. He called it a covert mission, which when you announce it, it's called overt. So what are they doing? Presumably, people I talk with say they're talking with generals, others in the military, maybe retired people. If Maduro leaves, will you join us in a new government? I think you see a lot of that going on. But putting boots on the ground, I don't think that's ever going to happen.
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B
We shall see. And for now, we're going to end with osint. That is open source intelligence. O S I n T. This is the very telling, maybe not so secret details we stumble across in our reporting. Tom, you always have a good one. So go.
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D
Okay. We know Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said that he does not want to release the second video of that alleged drug boat getting attacked. Remember the first one?
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B
The very first One in September.
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D
In September. Second, the first attack, they released that video. The second one is key because there were two survivors. The Republicans say it looks like they could continue their operation. The Democrats say, no, they were helpless, and you basically murdered these people. So what Hegseth is saying, we can't release that video because it's top secret. Well, I reached out to several people, were very knowledgeable about all this, and they also told me things that I can't repeat on public radio. More saltiness, their thoughts and more saltiness. And what they said is, first of all, this is ridiculous because you're releasing all these videos of the boat attacks. And they also said that there is some secret information on those videos, the location, the altitude, and the weapon used. But you scrub those before you release it. The reason they all say you don't want to release that second video is because the public would not want to see what the US Military is doing to survivors, that they say it's murder. It's disgraceful. That's why you're not seeing this video released publicly. And you probably never will see it released publicly. I don't think the question now is, will all members of Congress get to see it? That's what the question is.
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B
Now, some members of Congress have seen it. Correct?
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D
The defense bill, by the way, says you will release it to the entire Congress. The defense bill that was signed into law by President Trump just this week.
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B
I'm still hung up on the fact that Pete Hegseth, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, says he can't release the video because it's top secret. This is the same Pete Hegseth who discussed secret battle plans in real time of an imminent attack on Yemen in a signal chat group that had inadvertently.
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D
Included a journalist and another one with his wife, his brother, and his lawyer, none of whom had security clearances, by the way.
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B
Jane Arash, your osint.
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C
Yeah. It's something that has not made it into reporting or stories, but I feel if I pulled at that thread, it would reveal something really interesting and important about Syria, and it is how many people we run into who were with isis. And one of the things that stands out is when I'm there with one of our wonderful Iraqi colleagues, and he starts chatting with these guys who are now official security forces, and they say, where are you from? And he says, I'm from Mosul. And then they reminisce about Mosul. And the reminiscing about Mosul is when ISIS was in charge. And they invariably say, how lovely Mosul was. How much they really liked it. And even when we're interviewing people, on occasion, they will allude to having been part of isis. Which doesn't mean that Syria is a hotbed of ISIS people waiting to strike. It just means it's part of the fabric there.
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B
Is it something people discuss there? Will they say that openly in that moment, I was part of isis?
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C
They won't say it to me, a foreigner, but this is what I find in the field a lot, too. And it's one of the many, many reasons on why we rely on staff who are actually from that region. You know, one conversation that our local producer had was in a bathhouse with a guy who was reminiscing about being part of the caliphate. So it depends who they're talking to, really. And I think it's important, because if you think of the future of Syria, I think of what happened to Iraq when ISIS was able to take over and wreak havoc in so many parts of the country because of the conditions that were there, the corruption, the government incompetence. And it kind of indicates to me that this is such a precarious time.
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B
All right, my Osint. I'll take us to a different part of the world. I just sat down with John Sopko, who I'd interviewed more than once over the years, but I'd never actually met him in person. I know you know him.
- [29:09]
D
One of my favorite people, really.
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B
Okay. He. For those who don't know the name, he, for years, was the story Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction, the Cigar, as it's known. He's been doing that job for years. He was appointed by President Obama back when Obama was president. He was still doing it this past January until President Trump fired him right after moving back into the White House along with a bunch of other inspectors general. The White House has defended that decision, saying these were changing priorities. At any rate, his job all those years as Cigar was to be the US Watchdog and try to track waste and corruption in Afghanistan, try to track whether the billions of dollars the US Was throwing into that country, pouring into reconstruction of Afghanistan, were being spent wisely. Spoiler alert. They were not. And when I interviewed him and was talking to him about it, I said, give me an example.
- [30:14]
D
We bought about 20 airplanes from Italy that were in a junkyard in Sicily. We purchased them to send over to Afghanistan for the Afghans to learn how to fly these planes. They're like smaller versions of the C130 and 400, I believe. $480 million on it. And the planes couldn't fly. They basically were trashed almost immediately as.
- [30:44]
B
The planes, they literally couldn't get off the ground.
- [30:46]
D
Well, they could, but parts fell off planes that couldn't fly.
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B
It would be funny if it weren't so Darn Sad.
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D
Only 480 million.
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B
Only 480 million. So that's how things went in Afghanistan. All right, NPR Pentagon correspondent tomorrow, Bowman, always a pleasure.
- [31:06]
D
Always a pleasure. Mary Louise.
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B
And Jane Araf, correspondent in Amman. Great to speak with you. Come back early and often.
- [31:13]
C
Thank you so much.
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B
And a reminder, you can get in touch with us at Sources and methods, all one word@NPR.org a note about next week. On Monday, we'll have a new episode with Abigail Spanberger, ex member of Congress. Exactly. Ex CIA. Now the governor elect of Virginia. We'll talk to her about how her past work as a spy informs her work today as a politician. As a CIA officer, you gotta ask.
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E
A lot of questions.
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C
You have to be curious.
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E
You know, I was kind of a.
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B
Professional question asker and then ultimately a question answerer. That's in our Monday episode. It will be our only episode of the week because we're gonna take a little bit of time off over the holidays. Speak to you soon. I'm Mary Louise Kelly. Happy holidays and thanks for listening to Sources and Methods from npr.
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A
Support for this podcast comes from gmc. At gmc, ignorance is the furthest thing from bliss. Bliss is research, testing, testing the testing until it results in not just one truck, but a whole lineup. The GMC Sierra lineup featuring the Sierra 1500, the Sierra Heavy Duty and the all electric Sierra EV. Because true bliss is removing every shadow from every doubt. GMC we are professional grade. Visit GMC.com to learn more. This message comes from Viking. Committed to exploring the world in comfort. Journey through the heart of Europe on an elegant Viking longship with thoughtful service, destination focused dining and cultural enrichment on board and on shore. And every Viking voyage is all inclusive with no children and no casinos. Discover more at viking.
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