Eleanor Beardsley (2:55)

Thank you.

Mary Louise Kelly (2:55)

I hope you're wearing an appropriately cloak and dagger trench coat with the Parisian Hermes scarf.

Sponsor/Advertisement Voice (3:01)

Of course.

Eleanor Beardsley (3:02)

Bless you.

Mary Louise Kelly (3:04)

I will note that we are speaking. It is a little after 12:30 here on the East coast, here in Washington. 6:30 for you in Paris.

Greg Myre (3:13)

Yes.

Mary Louise Kelly (3:14)

So let's dive in. A few days ago, the Trump administration published a new foreign policy doctrine. Now it runs 30 pages or so. It is kicking up quite the storm, both here in the US and abroad. And among the headlines that have been flooding into my inbox, does Europe finally realize it's alone? I got another email calling the document a broadside attack against Europe's leaders. Greg, I want to start with what the National Security Strategy is. I mean, for starters, it's a White House document. Do we actually know who wrote it? How involved Trump has been?

Greg Myre (3:50)

We don't know specifically. He did sign the intro. It's there in his very distinctive signature. Now, one of his former national security advisors who's estranged from him now, John Bolton, says he doubts that Trump even even read it. And Trump is pretty notorious for not closely reading documents that are presented to him, but it does reflect his thinking and the top advisors around him. So it does seem to give a pretty, I would say, accurate way of that. Trump is approaching the world in these National Security Strategy documents. They're not sacred text. It doesn't commit an administration to anything stuff happening.

Mary Louise Kelly (4:32)

It's not like you're gonna stop in the middle of some crisis and say, wait, what did we say we were gonna do on page 19 of the National Security Strategy?

Greg Myre (4:39)

Exactly. Unexpected crises tend to define most administrations in their foreign policy, but it tells you where their head is and what they're thinking about.

Mary Louise Kelly (4:48)

And where is their head? What does this thing say? I know it's 30 pages, but what are the headlines?

Greg Myre (4:52)

You know, the thing that was most striking is sort of the lack of attention to Russia and China. And certainly the conventional wisdom in the national security community for at least the decade or so is these are the two big threats, the two big issues that the US has to deal with. And just taking a half step back, you know, in the early 2000s, it was all about the war on terrorism. And then President Obama talked about a pivot to Asia. And then in Trump's first term, in 2017, he released a national Security strategy, and it talked about this great power competition with Russia and China. And his team at that time was populated by the likes of H.R. mcMaster, James Mattis, John Kelly, These all career military men, and they had very traditional views on national security. And now we see in this new document, it's very dismissive of traditional allies in Europe and Asia. Russia receives pretty scant mention. China is mostly seen as an economic challenge. Very little about Taiwan or Chinese cyber threats. So, you know, this reflects Trump. And the other thing that really jumped out at me was the Trump corollary to the Monroe Doctrine.

Mary Louise Kelly (6:08)

Right. Which is all about Latin America. I want to ask to what. You know, we're often posing the question when we cover the Trump administration, what is shocking, but maybe not surprising, because there does seem to have been a through line all through this year. Let me take us Back to February. J.D. vance, the Vice President, shows up in Munich for the big gathering of security chiefs every year at the Munich Security Conference. And he said this.

Greg Myre (6:32)

The threat that I worry the most.

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About vis a vis Europe is not Russia, it's not China, it's not any other external actor.

Greg Myre (6:41)

And what I worry about is the.

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Threat from within, the retreat of Europe.

Mary Louise Kelly (6:47)

From some of its most fundamental values. The retreat of Europe. I mean, Eleanor, we have been hearing this from Trump and his team all year long. Right. This adversarial stance towards Europe is not new.

Eleanor Beardsley (6:59)

No, it's not. I think the Europeans keep hoping it's not real or that it won't. It was just maybe a mistake, or Trump will backtrack the administration. When that happened in Munich, the continent was just floored.

Mary Louise Kelly (7:10)

Greg, jump in.

Greg Myre (7:10)

Yeah. I mean, I think what's valuable about this document is it puts it in writing because we have heard Trump go back and forth a little bit, as Eleanor noted, or this very hostile rhetoric at the beginning of the administration toward Europe. And then NATO countries got together. They promised to spend more on defense, which has been Trump's big issue in his first term, and now this term. And so it seemed like, okay, maybe they were figuring out a way to massage this and it was all going to go get worked out, but now he's turned against Europe with his harsh rhetoric. And there it is in black and white in this document. Again, not a sacred text, but it sort of tells you Codifying it. Codifying it.

Mary Louise Kelly (7:53)

And here it is in paper.

Greg Myre (7:54)

Exactly. And so I think that is important.

Mary Louise Kelly (7:59)

We're focusing our pod today on Europe because there's all kinds of interesting things happening, which you were starting to walk us through, Eleanor, and we're going to go back to that in a second. But I do want to note the extent to which this document represents not a pivot to Asia, but a pivot to Latin America. The latest twist being the US Seizing an oil tanker off the coast of Venezuela. Greg, catch us up. What do we need to know?

Greg Myre (8:26)

Sure. So on Wednesday, the US Boarded a very large oil tanker off the coast of Venezuela with Venezuelan oil aboard. A little mystery about this ship which seems to have had a couple different names and it's not quite clear, clear where it's flagged. This was mostly a Coast Guard operation with some help from the military. But it marks a major escalation in what we've seen with these attacks on suspected drug trafficking boats and this large military presence of both naval ships and troops in the Caribbean.

Mary Louise Kelly (9:00)

Although you just said something interesting. This was coast Guard led. That's a little different from the attacks we have seen on the alleged drug trafficking boats, right?

Greg Myre (9:10)

Absolutely. And of course, that's been one of the big issues, legal rationale for these military strikes. But again, it shows how extensive this operation is in that region. It involves going after drug traffickers. It's a threat to Venezuela. This was a sanctioned oil tanker. So it's also part of sanctions that have been in place a long time, shadow fleet, mysterious tankers. So all of these things are coming together. And it really emphasizes the Trump administration's push in Latin America on multiple fronts, you know, military, economic, diplomatic, much more than we've seen. And again, the US military presence in the region, 15,000 troops at sea and on land in Puerto Rico, mostly larger than anything we've seen in decades.

Mary Louise Kelly (10:01)

Just one little detail in what you just said. This was a sanctioned oil tanker, meaning it was under US Sanctions. It had a history of oil going to Iran, evading sanctions, Is that right?

Greg Myre (10:12)

That's right. That's what it seems like. Again, this tanker seems to be called the Skipper, but apparently had a different name and it was involved in sort of black market oil.

Mary Louise Kelly (10:23)

Okay, time for a break. Before that, just a quick word. We are a few months into this podcast, so we're looking to check in with you for some feedback if you can. We would love your help with a short anonymous survey. Here's an address. It's also in our episode notes. NPR.org deceasedmbersurvey Again, NPR.org December survey, December survey. All one word. This is going to take you just a few minutes. Definitely less than 10. And as a token of thanks, three randomly selected respondents will get a $25 gift card. Yes, 25 whole bucks. Again, npr.org decembersurvey and with that, when we get back, the view from Europe. Power leaders there responding to President Trump. That's ahead on Sources and Methods from npr.

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Mary Louise Kelly (12:38)

And we're back. In an interview with POLITICO this week, President Trump called European leaders weak. He called their countries decaying because of how they've handled immigration. I think they're weak, but I also.

Greg Myre (12:53)

Think that they want to be so politically correct. I think they don't know what to do. Europe doesn't know what to do.

Mary Louise Kelly (13:00)

Trump also singled out London Mayor Sadiq Khan, born in London, of Pakistani descent.

Greg Myre (13:06)

He's a horrible mayor. He's an incompetent mayor, but he's a horrible, vicious, disgusting mayor. I think he's done a terrible job.

Mary Louise Kelly (13:13)

London. Eleanor, just spell out for us how are Europe's leaders responding to commentary like this coming from the United States, their longstanding ally?

Eleanor Beardsley (13:24)

I mean, that attack on Sadiq Khan, you know, I've heard many London officials come forward to say we have a very vibrant, thriving, multicultural city in actual.

Mary Louise Kelly (13:33)

There's been a lot of telephone DIPLOMAC this week. Is that right? Stermer and Macron and Mertz all on the phone with the White House?

Eleanor Beardsley (13:40)

Absolutely. In fact, yesterday we got a readout from the Elysee Palace. And it was very strange, though, Mary Louise, because, you know, the leaders of France, Britain and Germany called President Trump and just told him how important these talks about Ukraine's future are to Europe. And then it just sort of ended and there was nothing else there. You know, Europe is being sidelined right now in the talks on bringing peace to the war in Ukraine. And it's just fragile time for Europe, but Europe has got to step up and be strong. And they're also at the same time being attacked, their societies. The Trump administration with the NSS is trying to revive these, you know, nationalist parties and break apart the societies, you know, and put strains on the transatlantic alliance. And so every time that there's another meeting between the Russians and the U.S. or the U.S. and Ukrainians and the Europeans are sidelined, they get together and then they also get together with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, it seems to bolster him. And so, you know, they've put together their coalition of the willing, which would be this, you know, force, it's led by France and Britain, military force that would keep peace on the ground once a ceasefire is reached in Ukraine.

Mary Louise Kelly (14:45)

French President Emmanuel Macron has, has tried, we've watched this, you know, for years now, has tried to build a strong relationship with President Trump. I was struck by a note in your morning pass off today. These are the pass offs that, that correspondents like you who are all over the world write in to tell editors what's going on in your patch. And you wrote something about how Trump is very unpopular in France, including with voters on the far right.

Eleanor Beardsley (15:11)

He absolutely is like 60%. We saw a poll of voters on the far right do not like Donald Trump. They think he's aggressive, brash, impulsive and ignorant with the whole thing. In Ukraine, he doesn't know really these regions. His special envoy, Steve Witkoff, couldn't even name them. There's just a lot of it's seen as very slipshod. He's just trying to get a deal. And Europeans see that, even those on the far right. So nobody is really supporting what the Trump administration has said about Europe, even the far right.

Mary Louise Kelly (15:41)

Let's go to NATO for a second. This is more of this Politico interview with POLITICO's Dasha Burns. TRUMP said this.

Eleanor Beardsley (15:47)

NATO calls me Daddy.

Mary Louise Kelly (15:48)

NATO calls me Daddy. I mean, it's very interesting because many of us may remember during Trump's first term in the White House, he called NATO obsolete. He demanded they do a lot more to pull their own weight. As you were nodding to Greg. NATO members in response have agreed to up their defense spending to 5% of GDP. They've also expanded the alliance and that's in response to Russia's full scale invasion of Ukraine. But it's galvanized NATO. Sweden joined last year, Finland joined the year before. Is the Galvanizing of the alliance. Your sense is that, Greg, because of or despite?

Greg Myre (16:30)

Oh, I think it's because of the Russian invasion in Ukraine. Really. That's what's energized Europe. And again, I'm thinking back to when Russia did launch that full scale invasion in 22. The big question was the US is pumping a lot of support into Ukraine, but how long before Europe fractures and gives up and is no longer interested in doing this? Well, kind of the reverse has happened. It's the US under the Trump administration that has essentially cut off military assistance to Ukraine. The Europeans are still doing it and at this point have provided more aid, economic and military, than the US considerably more. @ this point. The question is they haven't been able to fully replace some of the US Weapons systems like air defenses that they would perhaps be willing to do. They just don't have it or don't have either the equipment, the resources and haven't been able to do it. But Europe has, I think, exceeded most expectations about their willingness to upgrade their own defenses, support Ukraine, talk about the threat from Russia. And very strangely, it's been the US with the Trump administration in particular, that sort of backed down in its role and its commitment to.

Mary Louise Kelly (17:46)

Europe. Okay, we're going to take a short break. When we get back, we're going to zero in on Ukraine. That's ahead on Sources and Methods from.

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Eleanor Beardsley (18:12)

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Mary Louise Kelly (19:13)

Podcast we're back. This new national security strategy comes at a precarious moment for Ukraine. There is a peace plan on the table to end its war with Russia. But officials in Ukraine say that proposal, a White House proposal, favors Russia. Here is Trump talking to reporters Sunday night at the Kennedy.

Greg Myre (19:34)

Center. Russia is, I believe, fine with it, but I'm not sure that Zelenskyy is fine with it. His people love it, but he.

Mary Louise Kelly (19:43)

Hasn'T really talking there, of course, about Ukraine's president, Volodymyr Zelensky, and also talking about European worries that Trump might abandon Ukraine. Eleanor. I mean, I know both of you have spent a lot of time reporting in Ukraine. Eleanor, you just got back. Where were you this.

Eleanor Beardsley (20:00)

Trip? Just got back. I was in Kiev and a little bit in southern Ukraine. I didn't go to any real hotspots, but Mary Louisa started my trip in this western city called Ternopil that had just been hit three days before by a ballistic missile. And the top of an apartment block was just completely blown off. It was just a scene of absolute destruction with, you know, things from the apartments. There were. There were clothing hanging in the tree limbs. And 36 people died, including children.

Mary Louise Kelly (20:28)

There. And am I right? I'm trying to remember the reporting you filed from there. You were there right around the time that the first draft of this peace plan, that the 28 point peace plan was.

Eleanor Beardsley (20:40)

Released. Exactly. This first peace plan, it's been amended several times and they're working off of a different one now, but it started with this one. 28 points was seen as hugely skewed towards Russia. In fact, there were worries that it was actually written by the Russians. And this came out like the day after this attack. And I was asking people about it, and there was just, you know, along with the absolute devastation and sorrow was this incomprehension. You know, people said to me, how is this possible? Why is Russia not being punished? Is Russia the victim? We are the victims. What is going on here? And people just felt so.

Mary Louise Kelly (21:16)

Abandoned. It's such an image. Eleanor, you're describing clothes floating from tree limbs and an apartment building with the top blown off. And here's this peace plan. People must have been looking at you like, like peace. That must feel like a very distant.

Eleanor Beardsley (21:29)

Concept. Well, people just felt abandoned. One woman said to me, how can we make peace with the people who did this to children in their beds at night? So it was very, very stark and very. It was a very hard time. And I was there during all of these track, you know, all of These negotiations going back and forth and back and forth. But I think Ukrainians, last spring when there was the big blow up.

Mary Louise Kelly (21:52)

In the Oval Office when Zelensky visited, and things.

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Were.

Eleanor Beardsley (21:55)

Yeah. And he was dressed, dressed down by Trump and J.D. vance, that people since then have never really trusted that the US Is on board with them.

Mary Louise Kelly (22:03)

Totally. Can I just, I just want to get a little bit more of a taste of your reporting. You know, winter has arrived in Ukraine. As you've noted, Russia is launching drone attacks, missile attacks every day. People are trying to carry on with their lives amid rolling blackouts. You were telling me about people tracking those blackouts, how they do it on their.

Eleanor Beardsley (22:24)

Phone. Oh, yeah, actually, I've been many times. But I had, I never arrived in the dark like that into our Kiev neighborhood where our bureau is. And so there's these rolling blackouts, and people live by them. You plan your lives by them. And the power is out just hours and hours and hours a day. And you, you walk down the streets of Kyiv at night and you hear the generators humming away. And it's, it's absolutely a new way of living. And people are cold and in the dark, they're still determined. But what's stunning is the, these attacks are still going on. The peace negotiations are going on, and the, the attacks go on either against civilian infrastructures or against energy infrastructure. And it's really hard right.

Mary Louise Kelly (23:02)

Now. So let me try to bring us full circle. We have this national security strategy laying out the Trump administration's thinking on foreign policy. We know that President Trump says he wants to end the war in Ukraine. We know there's a peace plan on the table which seems to be very heavily weighted in Russia's. So things to watch for. What's top of mind for each of you as we head into the deepest part of winter? Is there any end in sight?

Greg Myre (23:32)

Greg? I don't see it right now, but I've felt for quite some time that neither side can continue the war at the level of intensity that it's been going for almost four years now. Ukraine has two real tough things to deal with. One is air defenses. And especially now, if they're being really effectively cut off from U.S. air defense weapons systems. Russia is shooting more and more drones and missiles, and Ukraine just can't knock them all down. Ukraine also has a manpower shortage, trying to recruit enough young men to go fight on the front line. Russia is also under stress economically, but not as much. So is somebody going to reach a point of exhaustion? We're not there yet. We haven't seen it, but it can't go on indefinitely, I think, at this.

Mary Louise Kelly (24:17)

Level.

Eleanor Beardsley (24:18)

Eleanor. So Zelenskyy is being pushed now by the Kremlin and also the Trump administration to hold elections, which actually is really hard when millions missing millions are fighting a war or have left the country. And also polling stations could be targeted by missile attacks. But he actually said, okay, we could do that, but you need to guarantee our security, which is really ingenious cuz he's put the ball back into Trump's court. If you want elections, then we need security, maybe a ceasefire. So who knows what could.

Mary Louise Kelly (24:44)

Happen? All right, we're going to end Sources and Methods this week as we always do with OSINT open source intelligence. Little morsels, little tidbits, not secret, but telling details that we stumble across in our daily reporting. Greg Myhre, do you want to.

Greg Myre (25:02)

Start? Sure. Was hoping to go somewhere besides Ukraine, but I can't quite seem to get my head out of there. Ukraine used sea drones this week to strike another Russian oil tanker, this one in the Black Sea. This is the third time this has happened in the past two weeks. And it's this naval war that Ukraine has been waging, really without a navy. They have taken out two dozen or more Russian ships in the Black Sea with missiles or these sea drones. Drones which are essentially speedboats packed with explosives and guided by remote control. They forced the Russian navy back and ended an embargo and cleared it out. They were only hitting these military targets, Russian naval ships. Now they have started to go after oil tankers which are considered civilian. But in a sense, the Ukrainians have said the Russians are going after our power systems, our electricity grids. We're now considering Russian oil tankers to be fair game. And they've carried out some pretty dramatic attacks in the past couple.

Mary Louise Kelly (26:02)

Weeks. Bad week to be an oil tanker, no matter.

Greg Myre (26:06)

Where. You think we can land.

Mary Louise Kelly (26:08)

There. Eleanor Beardsley, what do you.

Eleanor Beardsley (26:10)

Have? Yeah, I think Ukrainian successes are not highlighted enough. And, you know, the resilience of the people is also amazing. I just remember the one day in Ukraine, we started the morning going to buildings that were attacked by drones and missiles the night before, watching the people. You can clean up, you know, count the dead, clean up. And it was just. The resilience was amazing. And then I went later that day, there was a big market with Ukrainian goods, from luxury goods to handcrafts. And they were dancing. And I said to a woman, how is it in this city in the same day you have these two scenes, and she said, because we want to live. We want to live our lives now, and we are not going to let the Russians stop us from doing it. So there's a resilience there, both in the civilian population and the military, and ingenuity that I think. I think we don't see enoughwe don't hear enough about.

Mary Louise Kelly (26:56)

Sometimes. All right, Mine is not Ukraine. Mine. I was in New York yesterday, and I was there at the Council on Foreign Relations to hear Bill Clinton speak about American foreign policy. Note, time flies. We're coming up on 25 years since Bill Clinton left the White House. He was there. He was reflecting on how wars end, which is obviously, obviously timely given the conversation we've just had. It's also something he knows a thing or two about. He noted that two peace deals that, while deeply imperfect, have largely held are Dayton, the dayton Accords of 95 to end the war in Bosnia and the Good Friday deal in Northern Ireland, 1998. So he was president. They were both on his watch. He spent most of his time yesterday on the Middle East East. And there, like every American president who's come before since, he sadly was not able to achieve a durable peace in the Middle East. But he did tell a story about one of the good days. And I just want to share it because it's illuminating. The story is about a day, September 13, 1993. The Oslo Accord and the historic handshake. A lot of people remember that photo of Yasser Arafat and Yitzhak Rabin on the White House lawn shaking hands. Two guys who have spent their lives fighting each other, arch enemies. The famous photograph shows them. They did shake hands. Bill Clinton is presiding. He's got his arms wide, standing behind them. But he told the story of how that photo came to be. He said that he was going back and forth and that Rabin steadfastly refused. He was not going to shake Arafat's hand. He's like, I can't do it. And Clinton, according to Clinton, said, oh, yeah, you have to. The whole world's gonna be watching. You gotta show you're making an effort. You gotta do it. And that upon much reflection, Rabin finally said.

Greg Myre (28:56)

Fine. And he said, all right, but no.

Mary Louise Kelly (28:57)

Kissing, no embrace, no kissing. So they thought about that. And the way Bill Clinton tells the story, his national Security advisor, Anthony Lake, said, I got this. I know what we're gonna do. Let's practice. He said, you be Arafat, I'll be Rabin. And so they practice and went in for the handshake. And that Anthony Lake put his hand really hard on like at Clinton's elbow bracing. And Clinton said, well, I can't get to.

Greg Myre (29:28)

You. He said, that's it. So he said, now you do it to me. And so I did it to.

Mary Louise Kelly (29:34)

Him. That's how we're gonna do it. We're gonna practice and that they.

Greg Myre (29:37)

Practiced, practiced that until we were blue in the.

Mary Louise Kelly (29:42)

Face. And Clinton said, you know, it worked. And I tell the story, share it to you now. Cause it's such a reminder of the art of diplomacy, which is about statecraft and big policy breakthroughs and all the rest, but also about these seemingly really small details that can make or break whether you get two leaders whose people have been fighting each other for decades, for generations, to stand on the White House lawn and shake each other's hand. That's what I got. Happy OSINT to all, Amen. We've been speaking with national security correspondent Greg Myhrey and NPR Paris correspondent Eleanor Beardsley. Thanks to you.

Greg Myre (30:24)

Both. My pleasure, Mary Louise, thanks for having.

Mary Louise Kelly (30:27)

Me. A reminder, you can get in touch with us at sources and methods, all one word sourcesandmethodspr.org and once again, if you have a few minutes to spare, we are asking for feedback on the show. This is a very quick, very anonymous survey. You can find it at npr.org decembersurvey the link is in our episode notes. If you want to take a Look again, it's npr.org DecemberSurvey I'm Mary Louise Kelley. We are back next week with another episode of Sources and Methods from.

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