Sascha Pfeiffer (2:07)

So Trump didn't just defend mbs. The pair also made a lot of deals. Aya, would you explain to us what the Trump administration agreed to?

Aya Bhatrawi (2:15)

Basically what I could say is what they both got are really good headlines out of this trip right now. That's what we know for sure. And they also, I think for the crown prince, you could say that he was really able to come home back to his, his domestic audience with, being lavished upon, being lauded, being greeted and being respected and honored, as President Trump said he would be doing with him. He said he would honor him, and he did. He honored the crown prince. And I think that that gives Saudi Arabia clout and weight, and it gives the crown prince the kind of gravitas that he believes he deserves. And he does run one of the world's biggest economies and one of the world's biggest oil producers, and it's a very important country in the region and in the world. And I think he's going back showing that he has Americ America's attention, and he has, you know, one of the most powerful people in the world calling him a great man.

Sascha Pfeiffer (3:03)

Do we know what the United States got, what the Trump administration got in terms of financial concrete commitments?

Aya Bhatrawi (3:09)

So already, you know, basically, the crown prince, who oversees one of the world's biggest sovereign wealth funds, had already announced that he was willing to put $600 billion of Saudi money into the US over Trump's term in office. And what he basically said on this trip is that he's willing to make that $1 trillion. But what that actually looks like and what that means, again, really no details yet on that. But what I think President Trump was able to get out of this was, again, he was able to shift the headlines for a couple of days away from those Jeffrey Epstein emails, from the cracks within his Republican Party, and to shift the narrative to overseas foreign policy wins that he says are going to create a lot of jobs in the United States. He positions these deals as maga, Make America Great Again, as putting America back on the map after years of decline. That's how he likes to frame this. He likes to say that what he's doing with the Saudis is bringing important Gulf allies back into the American fold, away from China and Russia and influence. But I will say America has always been and continues to be the indisputable most important security partner for the Gulf countries, no matter what.

Sascha Pfeiffer (4:21)

And meanwhile, Aya and Greg, you both know that for years, Saudi Arabia has been heavily criticized worldwide for world war, for human rights violations, for the killing and dismembering of the journalist Jamal Khashoggi, treatment of women's rights activists, extensive use of the death penalty, yet the United States continues to do business with the Saudis. Why is that, Greg?

Greg Myre (4:42)

Well, every U.S. president dating back decades has really defined this as a critical relationship that has to keep going on despite some really big issues that have gotten in the way. Human rights has certainly been one of Those big issues. And in recent years, it's taken on Aditum importance because of the killing of Jamal Khashoggi, who was working for the Washington Post, living in the United States, but business still continued on. President Biden still met with him. We've seen some administrations be a little uncomfortable with the Saudis because of that human rights record and maybe not provided them with such visible signs of appreciation as we've seen here with the big dinner and this big event at the Kennedy center on business deals. And then we've seen others like the Trump administration, give a very full embrace and really brush aside or dismiss human rights issues more or less altogether. But it doesn't really matter. Democratic administration or Republican administration, they have both felt that the significance, the just absolutely critical nature of the Saudi position in the region of their oil resources makes a relationship absolutely critical and necessary.

Sascha Pfeiffer (6:01)

That Saudi Arabia, geopolitically, they just need it in terms of relations with Israel fighting terrorism, that they that is very important to maintain some relationship despite the problems in Saudi Arabia.

Greg Myre (6:12)

You know, it's been oil mostly over the decades that the Saudis can supply so much oil on the global market that they can increase or decrease production, stabilize the world oil market, but also for security in the Middle East. Saudi has been the big rival of Iran. Saudi is the big brother, has been to the other Arab Gulf states. And if it takes a position, the others generally follow. So for all of these reasons, it has been very critical.

Sascha Pfeiffer (6:42)

Greg, in terms of the history of US And Saudi Arabia and its relationship, you have worked in the Middle east since the early 90s, is that right?

Greg Myre (6:51)

Correct.

Sascha Pfeiffer (6:52)

And can you give us sort of a mini history lesson of the US Saudi relationship over time?

Greg Myre (6:56)

I hate to go back so far, but it was a big event that started it. It was the final months of World War II. And Franklin Roosevel met with King Abdulaziz, the founder of Saudi Arabia, in 1945 on a US warship in the Suez Canal. And that really started this relationship and in similar basis into what we see today. The Saudis were known to have these huge oil reserves, but it was a very undeveloped country at that time. They wanted security and strategic partner. And so that was the basis of this relationship for many decades. And we'll Fast forward to 1990, which was the first Gulf War, when the US drove Iraqi troops out of Kuwait. The US massed its forces in Saudi Arabia. There were a lot of journalists there, including myself. Saudi Arabia was very uncomfortable with this at the time. They'd never seen anything like this. They didn't allow large numbers to come in except for the Hajj, the Muslim pilgrimage. But for large numbers of Westerners to come into the kingdom was really unprecedented. And to have this military force and these journalists poking around was just something that was unusual. But that really began the process that takes us to today where Saudi was in some ways forced to open up a little bit more to the world and the West. And it's been a very uncomfortable relationship because of course, Osama bin Laden didn't like this US presence. And that led to a number of events that we all know very well.

Sascha Pfeiffer (8:28)

While Mohammed bin Salman was in the US this week, he actually addressed the 911 families. And here's what he said.

Donald Trump (8:34)

I feel painful about, you know, families of 9 11, 911 in America. But you know, we have to focus on reality. Reality based on CIA documents and based on documents that Osama bin Laden used Saudi people. And that event for one main purpose is to destroy this relation, to destroy the American Saudi religion. That's the purpose of 911.

Sascha Pfeiffer (8:58)

Your thoughts on that?

Aya Bhatrawi (8:59)

You know, the Saudi government has been fighting the shadows of 911 for two decades now or more. And you know, I know that from all my trips to Saudi Arabia. The Saudis are very peaceful people. And what happened on 911 was something that shocked them as much as it shocked the American public and pained them. I also know that after Jamal Khashoggi's murder, that also pained Saudis, including top secret senior royals that I sat with after that. They were pained that that happened. They were pained that this was now an image that was going to be tarnishing the entire kingdom and all of its people. And unfortunately, that has happened for Saudis. There's a stigma. But you know, the crown prince has also done something very fascinating which is he has come out and said straight out the gate since he became crown prince that he was going to take Saudi Arabia and modernize it. But also he said under a moderate Islam, and so no longer is that ultra conservative Wahhabi, as it's known interpretation of Islam that makes everything haram essentially. You know, women driving was forbidden. Women working was forbidden. Women playing sports was forbidden. Women being seen in public sitting in a park with unmarried men was a sin, was not allowed. You know, there was the vice and virtue. Police would literally run after you in the streets, you know, and create these deadly car crashes. If somebody was playing music, they would, you know, smack women on the hands for wearing nail polish. I mean, this was the K Kingdom a decade ago. This is not a generation ago. This was just a decade ago. So when I meet with people my age or younger in Saudi Arabia, they remember those days and they can see these changes. And so he's extremely popular in the kingdom because from everyone I speak to, they can finally breathe. They can finally travel within the kingdom and spend their money on entertainment and fun like they would in Bahrain or Qatar or Dubai, which is where they used to go for that. Now they can just do it in their own country. And they're really excited by the changes. It's creating new industries, new jobs. You know, again, 10 years ago, I couldn't even go to Saudi Arabia without a male guardian, my husband. Now I can go to Saudi Arabia and stay at a hotel and take a Pilates class. I know that doesn't sound like a big deal, but there was no Pilates. You know, there was no. Was no exercise for women. I mean, all of this concerts weren't allowed. Now there's. Now there's Cardi B. Cardi B is performing in Saudi Arabia. I mean, I think that sums it up for you. So while all these major reforms have been happening and most Saudis seem to be pretty happy with the changes, I can also tell you that in some ways, it's also become more repressive than ever. So even under King Abdullah, the previous monarch, I could go sit with activists in their homes, have these conversations. They could have gatherings in their houses and discuss human rights in their homes, and they could try to push the boundaries by getting behind the wheel of a car and driving and signing a pledge that they wouldn't do it again and that kind of thing. So it was kind of like little slaps on the wrist. And of course, there was real repression also happening of activists then. But today, I literally cannot even pick up the phone and call these women when I go to Saudi Arabia, because if I try to meet with them, if I try to pick up the phone, their phones are probably monitored. They are on travel bans. I would be a risk to them because I'm an international journalist. And you can't just take a mic to the streets and say, hey, what do you think of these reforms? And expect to get a real answer. So things have changed a lot, and I also can't. And a lot of the people, again, that I used to speak to are either in exile, so they've had to leave the kingdom and speak from Washington or Geneva or wherever they live now, London, or they're in prison.

Sascha Pfeiffer (12:32)

Let's take a short break, and when we come back, we're going to talk about Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman's rise to power. That's ahead on Sources AND Methods from npr.

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Sascha Pfeiffer (14:12)

EA could you run through with us how Mohammed bin Salman rose to power?

Aya Bhatrawi (14:16)

Sure. So, you know, the first time that he visited the White House, he came and kind of just doorstepped the new president at the time. And I remember that there was German Chancellor Angela Merkel was actually in Washington then and she didn't come out to meet Trump when she was supposed to because there was too much snow that day. And so Jared Kushner actually helped facilitate this quick meeting in the White House between at the time, this young prince, nobody knew who he was still. He was still the deputy crown prince. So he wasn't a guaranteed heir to the throne at all. And that really cemented that relationship. And then from there, he was able to really utilized the relationship with Jared Kushner, President Trump's son in law, who was adviser in the White House in the first term to actually ascend to the throne. So that's really his rise to power came very quickly, very aggressively. But now when he comes back in his visit to the White house, he's a 40 year old heir to the throne. He has a lot of wealth under him, and he's actually positioning the kingdom now as a mediator and a global broker in major wars like the war in Ukraine and Russia. You'll recall Saudi Arabia hosted the United States States and Russia for those talks earlier this year. So he's definitely, I think, rebranding himself and rebranding the kingdom in the process.

Sascha Pfeiffer (15:31)

Yeah.

Greg Myre (15:32)

And just to add to that, I mean, for decades, generations, even the center of gravity in the Middle east was really the Israeli Palestinian conflict and big neighboring countries like Egypt, the most populous Arab country or Syria, that center of gravity in many ways has moved to the Gulf and Saudi Arabia in particular, because of the wealth, because of the influence, because they've reached out and are more open to the outside world now. So when you look at Mohammed bin Salman, he's 40 years old. He could easily be there for certainly you would expect decades, but it could be 40, 50 years. You could probably make a pretty good argument. He might be the most important person in the region even today. But certainly as you look into the.

Sascha Pfeiffer (16:18)

Future, does it give him sort of global power broker status because of all that gravity shifting to Saudi Arabia, as you said?

Greg Myre (16:24)

Oh, absolutely. You know, Saudi used to be so quiet and closed and didn't really want to make waves globally. But he's clearly somebody who wants to get involved. And we've seen that not only in terms of its traditional things like oil revenue and things like that, but in companies like AI and industries of the future as they try to expand their economy and reach out to the world in many ways.

Sascha Pfeiffer (16:48)

Let's talk a little bit about how Israel factors into this, because before the October 7 Hamas attack, Saudi Arabia and the US were working on a deal to normalize Saudi ties with Israel. And in return, the Saudi government wanted a defense pact with the US but then Hamas attacked Israel. Greg, can you explain what the relationship between Israel and Saudi Arabia is now?

Greg Myre (17:10)

Yeah, it certainly set things back. It seemed that Israel and Saudi were very close to normalizing. The Saudis were willing to do that. The Crown Prince was for that. But the war in Gaza changed that because of the way basically Israel carried out its response and the high number of civilian casualties in Gaza. So now the Saudis say they're not going to normalize relations with Israel until there's a clear path towards Palestinian statehood. But the Saudis are essentially getting what they wanted from the United States. They were just named by Trump as a major non NATO ally. This puts them into a category of about 20 countries that don't have a NATO level guarantee but would expect US help should they come under threat. Trump says he's approved F35 fighter jets for Saudi Arabia. So Saudi is getting the part of the bargain that they wanted. They're not having to take the very sensitive, awkward or controversial step of normalizing relations with Israel at this point. And now they say it's up to Israel to take steps towards a Palestinian state before the Saudis will consider that action.

Sascha Pfeiffer (18:27)

And Aya, what is Saudi Arabia's role, if any, in the current Israel Gaza peace plan?

Aya Bhatrawi (18:31)

Well, Saudi Arabia, that has two major cards. One is normalization with Israel. It doesn't need it. It's not rushing for it. It's very costly for them to go into something like that right now with the current far right government that has committed, you know, this war and is committed to not creating a Palestinian state so they don't have to at any cost normalize relations with Israel. They can wait for new elections in Israel to see if a new government comes in that UN at least offers words of interest towards a Palestinian state because that's what they're looking for. They keep saying they're looking for a pathway to a Palestinian state. And the other major card that they play is that they will be heavily involved if and when the time comes for reconstruction in Gaza.

Sascha Pfeiffer (19:15)

Let's take another short break and when we're back, we're going to keep talking about the peace plan and also the US Plan for an international security team to enter and demilitarize and govern Gaza. That's ahead on Sources and Methods from npr.

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Sascha Pfeiffer (21:04)

We are back and President Trump has some big ambitions for Gaza. Earlier this week, the UN Security Council approved a US Plan that authorizes a temporary peacekeeping force in Gaza. Greg, would you tick through the broad outlines of that plan?

Greg Myre (21:19)

Yeah. It's called an international stabilization force. And what it would do would be bringing foreign troops into to Gaza to solidify the ceasefire formally and officially in a very concrete way in the war that we've seen for the past two years now, this is really significant for a number of reasons. Israeli troops still have half of Gaza, so this would presumably get the Israelis to withdraw from virtually all or all of Gaza. And it would be very unusual because Israel has always resisted bringing in foreign troops, negotiators, basically foreign anything. The Palestinians have always been the ones that have wanted to go to the United nations, internationalize the conflict and sort it out that way. The Israelis generally say this is between us and the Palestinians because Israel holds most of the cards, puts them in a much stronger position. So if this does take place, and it's now been approved by the United nations, but we still don't know when the troops are going to show up or who they will be, it would be a very big deal.

Sascha Pfeiffer (22:20)

Ea, given the resistance to that idea that Greg just described, do you think that what's on paper could actually happen? Based on what you're hearing from the region?

Aya Bhatrawi (22:28)

There are many things that could torpedo this ceasefire. It's very shaky. It's not moving the way it was designed to move. It's not meant to stagnate. I'm speaking to you after a very deadly evening in Gaza in which 32 people were killed, 20 of them women and children, because those Israeli troops that Greg is referring to say that there was some gunfire, shot at them, no one was wounded, but they launched these airstrikes on Gaza. So that's the kind of ceasefire that we're dealing with, with 300 Palestinians killed since the ceasefire came into effect. What I will say is I think Egypt, a key mediator, which neighbors, Gaza, neighbors, Israel, understands that this is a very crucial step in the ceasefire because it will be important for international troops to get in there and disarm Hamas.

Sascha Pfeiffer (23:17)

This is reference to the demilitarization aspect of the deal.

Aya Bhatrawi (23:21)

Right. So they say Israelis say they want to see Hamas disarmed and Gaza demilitarized. So that can mean very many things. It could mean Hamas turning over every single one of its weapons, including its rifles, which it's not going to do because there are in Gaza Palestinian gangs and clans and militias being armed by Israel openly and publicly to fight Hamas. So Hamas is not going to give up its light weapons, but there are discussions about its heavy weapons like its rockets, its rocket propelled grenades, that kind of thing. And that maybe could be stored in Gaza rather than handed over in a public manner of defeat or something like that. Because, again, Hamas position is that they're a resistance group. International law allows them to resist as long as there is an occupation. So they're not going to formally give that up. But that's where it becomes really sensitive. And that's where you need an international force with Egyptian troops in particular to be able to go in there and deal with this very thorny, difficult part of the peace plan.

Sascha Pfeiffer (24:18)

Greg, this ceasefire, even though, as EA just said, it's a ceasefire where people are still being being killed, Trump helped broker it. What could the US Involvement in this peace plan and the demilitarization of Gaza be?

Greg Myre (24:32)

Well, it's already been a lot more extensive than I or others would have expected. There was a sense that Trump, as he often does, will point to a deal and say, mission accomplished, I'm done here. But Trump and his administration are putting in continued effort. We've seen the president's envoys continue to have talks in the region, but we're still looking at something with a lot of really tough problems. Gaza doesn't have a government. It's very hard to see how you're going to get this place up and running.

Sascha Pfeiffer (25:06)

And it's decimated.

Greg Myre (25:07)

Absolutely. Oh, you know, talk of 90% of the homes damaged or destroyed, just removing the rubble, just getting water, just a steady food supply, creating some sort of economy. These are just really basic, fundamental things. And then you get beyond that, a government, a security force, and then after that, you get to the really hard part, which is political talks. How do you move towards some sort of Palestinian political decision making on their own or potentially a statehood? And that is at this point, way down the road.

Sascha Pfeiffer (25:40)

All right, let's go to osint. The way we always end this is open source intelligence. The not so secret yet telling details we have stumbled across in our reporting. Greg, do you want to start us off?

Greg Myre (25:51)

Yeah, sure. The US has about 195ambassadorial posts around the world, roughly half of Those are empty. Now. We do see a lot of turnover when a new administration takes place. It can just be the administration is slow to appoint, the Senate is slow to confirm, but it's become just almost a permanent condition. Among those places that the US doesn't have an ambassador is Saudi Arabia, is Ukraine, places you could really use somebody to work with. Now, President Trump likes to talk one on one with leaders. He's been stinted sending people like Steve Witkoff to the Middle east, to Russia to deal with this. But ambassadors are important. The embassies are big places. They need somebody to run them. And as you can see, these are places that could use an ambassador.

Sascha Pfeiffer (26:42)

Yes, those are significant vacancies.

Aya Bhatrawi (26:43)

There's also no ambassador here where I am at the UAE or in Qatar.

Sascha Pfeiffer (26:48)

And ea. You're OSINT today?

Aya Bhatrawi (26:51)

I think so. When I was in Saudi Arabia last month, what I found super interesting was the collection of people who were coming so to this Davos in the desert. It's this annual big money investment forum that the Saudi crown prince puts together every year under the Sovereign Wealth Fund of Saudi Arabia, the pif, it's called. And one of the more fascinating guests at this investment forum was Donald Trump Jr. Now, it's interesting because this was first of all, he says, his first visit ever to Saudi Arabia Arabia. His brother Eric Trump has been out here many times in the region because he runs the Trump Organization. And since President Trump became president, the first time, there was only a Trump golf course in Dubai. Now there are Trump golf courses being built in Amen in Qatar, possibly in Saudi Arabia. There are multiple Trump towers being built in Saudi Arabia and developed and another one being built here in Dubai. So that gives you an example of just how much business has happened since President Trump's first term in office and continues under the second term. But Don Trump Jr. Is interesting because his whole thing is patriotic capitalism or investing in America only. So it was interesting to see him at an investment forum for Saudi Arabia because he was there with his investment firm that touts investments in America. But one thing that I thought was really interesting is when he was on stage, he was a speaker, he talked about how, unlike the last presidents who'd visited Saudi Arabia Arabia, his father didn't come on an apology tour. And he talked about how Saudi, Saudi first policy, you know, the crown prince's policies, looking at Saudi Arabia first, there's something that makes a lot of sense to him because, you know, he's also about America first. And he talked about how just a few years ago people would have called anyone crazy for thinking about coming to the Middle east to look at investment. He said anyone with a few brain cells wouldn't be investing in the Middle east versus anywhere in Europe. And now he says that's changed. So I think just following the Trump family, their relatives, Jared Kushner, all of them, their travels to the Gulf, that's what I like to keep my eyes on.

Sascha Pfeiffer (29:02)

Yes, investors are drawn there. Exactly. Mine falls into the category of how a picture can speak a thousand words. I am looking at a photo that ran on the front page this week of the print New York Times Online as well. It shows the crown prince stepping out a livery car, President Trump greeting him with arms outstretched, wide open. It really summarizes the reception that the crown prince got from the US and it made me think back to the then infamous fist bump that Joe Biden gave to the crown prince not long after Jamal Khashoggi had been killed.

Donald Trump (29:39)

And Trump doesn't give a fist bump. I grabbed that hand. I don't give a hell where that I grabbed that hand.

Sascha Pfeiffer (29:47)

So that photo summarizes much of what we've been talking about on this podcast today. I have been speaking with Aya Batrawi, who covers the Gulf nations for npr, and also Greg Myri, who covers national security for npr. Thanks to both of you.

Greg Myre (29:58)

My pleasure, Sasha.

Aya Bhatrawi (29:59)

Thank you, Sasha. It was great to be with you.

Sascha Pfeiffer (30:01)

And thank you also to listeners who've taken the time to rate and review the show on your podcast platform of choice. That goes a long way toward helping new listeners find us, and it only takes a few seconds. I'm Sascha Pfeiffer. We're back next week with another episode of Sources and Methods from npr.

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Greg Myre (31:17)

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