Trump's Hormuz plan / troops to Mideast / Iran peace ‘talks’?

Summary

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Sources & Methods (NPR)

Episode: Trump's Hormuz plan / troops to Mideast / Iran peace ‘talks’?
Date: March 26, 2026
Host: Mary Louise Kelly
Guests: Tom Bowman (Pentagon correspondent), Ebba Trowey (reporting from Dubai)

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Episode Overview

This episode explores the rapidly escalating tensions in the Middle East as thousands of US troops are deployed to the region amid ongoing hostilities with Iran. Mary Louise Kelly is joined by NPR’s Pentagon correspondent Tom Bowman and Dubai-based reporter Ebba Trowey to break down the latest US military maneuvers, the situation on the ground, Iran’s responses, the feasibility of reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and the uncomfortable realities of attempted diplomatic "peace talks."

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Major Discussion Points & Insights

1. US Troop Deployments: Escalation or Leverage?

• Mixed Messages from the White House

  • Last week, President Trump publicly denied plans to send troops ("No, I'm not putting troops." – Trump via Tom Bowman, [02:03]), yet this week, the Pentagon has ordered 2,000 paratroopers from the 82nd Airborne and thousands of Marines (including those afloat from Okinawa and a Marine expedition unit from San Diego) into the region ([02:24]).
  • This deployment points toward a notable escalation, not just a show of force.
  • Quote: "Once troops are amassed in an area, President Trump tends to use them." — Tom Bowman ([00:19]).

• Mission Unclear

  • Congress has only been told "we have options" in closed-door briefings; no specifics offered about targets or intentions ([04:18]).
  • Options cited include potentially seizing Iran’s Kharg Island (a key oil facility) or mainland ports such as Bandar Abbas ([05:02]).

2. Potential Operations: The Kharg Island Focus

• Strategic Importance

  • Kharg Island is small but vital as Iran’s main oil terminal — a direct economic target ([04:47]).
  • Military options include landing paratroopers to seize the airfield or Marines conducting amphibious assaults.
  • Tom Bowman: "You could seize that and basically deny them the use of that facility…turn everything off so you can't use it. That would be the goal." ([05:02])

• Feasibility & Doubts

  • Some experts, e.g., Rear Admiral Mark Montgomery, question the need for direct capture.
    • Montgomery's view: It would be more efficient and less risky to simply threaten oil tankers trying to dock at Kharg.
    • Quote: “If you want to deny the Iranians Kharg Island, just send out a message: the next oil tanker…we’re going to blow it up.” ([07:35])

3. The Gulf States’ Response and Iranian Countermeasures

• Heightened Anxiety

  • Populations in Gulf capitals are visibly worried — stockpiling generators/solar panels in response to Iranian threats against power plants ([08:41]).
  • Ebba Trowey reports direct experience with military activity: "There were 15 ballistic missile interceptions… fighter jets outside now." ([09:34])

• Iran Preparing for Invasion

  • Iranians reportedly mining the area and publicly warning: “Come, we’re ready for you.” ([08:11])

4. Can Military Force Reopen the Strait of Hormuz?

• The Challenge

  • Retired Admiral Jamie Fogo outlines the scale: Air superiority, minesweeping, naval escort operations — all required for a large, complex campaign likely taking at least a month to set up ([11:30]–[12:40]).
  • Quote: “You have to own the skies… send in minesweepers… bring in destroyers to escort the oil tankers.” — Tom Bowman ([11:30])

• Complications

  • New threats: Iranian drones and sea-mines complicate efforts.
  • Insurance and shipping sectors may be unwilling to risk vessels, even with protection, impacting global trade ([16:04]–[17:33]).

• Europe’s Role

  • European military support is uncertain; even sending mine-sweepers from Europe could take weeks ([16:04]).

5. War’s Economic and Regional Fallout

• Direct Attacks on US Bases & Gulf Infrastructure

  • US bases in the Gulf have been hit; troops relocated to hotels/offices ([16:04]).
  • Notable attacks: Fuel depot near Riyadh, Ras Laffan gas complex in Qatar (a major global gas supplier, potentially out for five years — $20B/year in lost revenue) ([16:04]).

• Global Ripple Effects

  • “It’s not just about getting ships through,” but about damage to energy production facilities and global markets ([16:35]).

6. Negotiations: ‘Peace Talks’ Stuck Before They Start

• Who’s Talking?

  • Egypt and Pakistan now intermediaries, since Oman and Qatar (traditional mediators) were attacked as part of the conflict ([19:34]).
  • Egypt's Foreign Minister confirmed that Trump requested Egyptian involvement ([20:28]).
  • Tom Bowman: “If the president is reaching out…they’re operating from a position of weakness.” ([20:29])

• Demands and Responses

  • US 15-point Plan: Calls for Iran to give up uranium enrichment, limit missiles, cut proxy support ([21:37]).
  • Iran’s Stance: No formal talks; refuses preconditions, demands US/Israel cease attacks, permanent guarantees, sanctions relief, reparations, and maintains missile program as non-negotiable ([22:19], [22:54]).
    • Quote: “Iran will end this war when it decides to do so on its own conditions... they want guarantees, sanctions relief, reparations.” — Ebba Trowey ([22:19])

• Psychological Factors

  • Iranian regime’s survival seen as victory; domestic propaganda framing the war as a confrontation with a global superpower ([24:47]).
  • “The Iranian regime is still in power, and they could win just by surviving.” — Tom Bowman ([24:47])

7. Is There an Off-Ramp?

• Bleak Outlook
  • Both correspondents see little prospect for a quick end: US sees continued pressure; Iran shows no inclination to back down, buoyed by “surviving” despite heavy military/civilian costs ([25:03]).
  • Leadership succession after the Supreme Leader’s assassination complicates any route for de-escalation ([25:46]).
  • Deep lack of trust highlighted: “How can there be talks and how can there be any diplomacy when the last two times we were in the middle of diplomatic negotiations, we got bombed and a war was launched.” — Ebba Trowey ([26:55])

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Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• "[President Trump] tends to use troops once they're amassed in an area." — Tom Bowman ([00:19])
• "If you want to deny the Iranians Kharg Island, just send out a message... you're hurting them economically. You don't have to send a bunch of Marines or paratroopers." — Ret. Rear Adm. Mark Montgomery paraphrased by Tom Bowman ([07:35])
• “Come, we’re ready for you.” — Iranian official response, per Ebba Trowey ([08:11])
• “I heard several [missile interceptions] overhead here in Dubai around 7:38 in the morning. I can hear fighter jets outside now.” — Ebba Trowey ([09:34])
• “You have to own the skies…send in minesweepers…bring in destroyers to escort the oil tankers out.” — Adm. Jamie Fogo via Tom Bowman ([11:30])
• “The President isn’t a military expert…It’s very complex, as I just laid out.” — Tom Bowman ([15:06])
• “Iran will end this war when it decides to do so on its own conditions... they want guarantees, sanctions relief, reparations.” — Ebba Trowey ([22:19])
• “The Iranian regime is still in power, and they could win just by surviving.” — Tom Bowman ([24:47])
• “Off ramp...almost as if it was designed so that there can't be an off ramp...New Supreme Leader...we haven't heard from yet...what kind of off-ramp can we imagine?” — Ebba Trowey ([25:46])
• “They've hit U.S. bases, they've hit Israel very hard...and they're also able to send those oil prices really high.” — Ebba Trowey ([23:45])
• “Using fighter jets to chase a drone?” — Mary Louise Kelly ([28:36])
• “Tom, expensive. That’s not a cheap thing to do.” — Ebba Trowey ([28:40])

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Important Segments & Timestamps

• US Troops Deployed, Conflicting White House Statements: [02:03]–[03:33]
• Kharg Island – Strategic Target: [04:34]–[07:35]
• Gulf Civilian & Military Responses: [08:11]–[09:34]
• Strait of Hormuz – Military Challenges: [11:30]–[13:48]
• About International Coordination & Insurance Risks: [16:04]–[17:33]
• Nature and Content of Backchannel Talks: [19:34]–[22:54]
• Prospects of Negotiations and Off-Ramps: [24:47]–[26:55]
• Open Source Intelligence (OSINT) Segment: [27:09]–[30:13]
  • Iran’s counterattacks by country ([27:09])
  • UAE tactics in drone interceptions ([27:44])
  • Historical context of regime change in Iran ([28:46])
  • Insight into bureaucratic infighting over In-Q-Tel in the intelligence community ([30:12]–[32:49])

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OSINT (Open Source Intelligence) Highlights

• Distribution of Iranian Counterattacks: 37% on UAE, 15% on Israel, remainder on Kuwait and Saudi Arabia ([27:09]).
• Surge in defensive tactics: UAE military employing fighter jets to chase drones into open areas to minimize urban damage ([27:44]).
• Historical lesson: Only time Iranian people rose up successfully (1979) was when the military stood down ([28:46]).
• CIA vs. DNI turf war over tech funding (In-Q-Tel): Bureaucratic power struggle reflects deeper tensions over intelligence community leadership ([30:12]).

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Conclusion: The Big Picture

With nearly a month of open warfare between the US/Israel and Iran, the conflict shows no signs of abating. US military build-up in the Gulf appears more an escalation than a mere warning and is unlikely to secure the region or facilitate shipping soon. Diplomatic channels are weak, with neither side motivated (or able) to compromise in the short term. Meanwhile, civilians and economies across the Gulf are bracing for continued disruption, and the national security community debates the best path forward in a situation with no clear off-ramp.

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Transcript

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[Tom Bowman]

Once troops are amassed in an area President Trump tends to use them, thousands

[Mary Louise Kelly]

of US Troops are headed to the Middle East. Is this an escalation or a warning? This is Sources and Methods from npr. I'm Mary Louise Kelly. Every Thursday on this podcast, we dive deep on some of the week's biggest national security stories with the NPR reporters out there covering them before we get started this week. A note. Make sure you stick around at the end of the show today for details on a live event we are planning for next Tuesday. You can join me on Zoom as we tape an episode of this show and answer your questions about events in Iran and our work on the Nadsec beat. This is a special event for NPR supporters. If that is you, check your email. You should have received an invitation this week. If you're not a supporter, it is not too late. You can sign up for NPR today at plus.NPR.org and you'll get an invitation by the end of the week. Again, more details coming at the end of this show. All right. Let's get to it. NPR Pentagon correspondent Tom Bowman is back and here with me in Studio 42. Hiya, Tom.

[Tom Bowman]

Hey, Mary Louise.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

And Ebba Trowey is reporting from base in Dubai. Hey there.

[Commercial Announcer]

Hi.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

Hi. So we are recording this on Thursday. It is a little after 10am Eastern, which makes it what time for you a in dubai?

[Ebba Trowey]

Just after 6pm here.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

Just after 6. Okay. So let's get to it. Tom, kick us off. I am confused, and here's why. Last Thursday, President Trump is asked, is he going to put troops on the ground in the Middle East? Here's what he told a reporter.

[Tom Bowman]

No, I'm not putting troops.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

No, he's not putting troops anywhere. And then this week we are hearing at least 2,000 paratroopers. They're from the 82nd Airborne. They just got orders to deploy, and they're joining thousands of Marines already headed to the region. So we're talking thousands of U.S. troops.

[Tom Bowman]

What gives, right? I'm not sure what the president is talking about, but what we do know is that a couple of thousand troops from the 82nd Airborne, the Devil Brigade, I'm told they're expected to leave this weekend and likely head to Kuwait first, and then they'll be joined in the next couple of days by a couple of thousand Marines afloat coming from Okinawa. They'll be probably off Oman by this weekend. So you're going to have a number of troops in the region, at least several thousand. And then additionally, there is a Marine expedition unit coming from San Diego. They'll be arriving probably in the next week or 10 days or so. So there's going to be a lot of troops in the region. And as we saw down in the Caribbean, once troops are amassed in an area, President Trump tends to use them.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

So I want to get to what we know and what we don't know about what the mission is for all these troops gathering. But to that basic question, is this a significant escalation or is this a warning maybe to gain some leverage and say, hey, Iran, like we mean it?

[Tom Bowman]

No, I think it's an escalation. I mean, you know, the warning has already come, if you want to call it a warning, by thousands of targets being hit by US And Israel and also killing their leader. So I don't think the Iranians are going to look at this and say, oh, no, several thousand US Troops are coming. What are we going to do? But again, you know, it looks like they will likely hit the ground. I know they're saying it's not boots on the ground, but if they do land on Iranian territory, it could be this Kharg island or it could be some of the ports along the mainland. That by definition is boots on the ground. You're invading someone else's country.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

Have we gotten any more intel on where they're going and what the mission might be?

[Tom Bowman]

No, we have not. And I talked to an official on Capitol Hill. The lawmakers were briefed by the Trump administration about where is this thing going? What are you guys going to do? All they would tell lawmakers in a closed door hearing now, we have options. That's all they told them. We have options.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

If the mission involves Carg island, which we've spent a fair bit of time talking about on this podcast, it's very close to the mainland.

[Tom Bowman]

Yeah, about 15, 18 miles off the coast.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

Off the coast. It's a small island. I was looking at the map. It's about five miles long, two, three miles wide. What would US Troops do there? What would the goal be? How long would they have to stay?

[Tom Bowman]

Well, it's Iran's main oil facility. So you could seize that and basically deny them the use of that facility or that island. There are two oil facilities in the south, one on the west coast of Kharga Island. So they could land there and just basically turn everything off so you can't use it. That would be the goal. Now, could the 82nd paratroopers land at the airfield on the island and seize it? That's one of the things that paratroopers do, seize airports. Could the Marines punch through the Strait of Hormuz and land there as well? That's a possibility. But again, at this point, all we have are options. You know, that's the most famous island on Earth now, Kharga Island.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

Right.

[Tom Bowman]

What people didn't know two weeks ago, now everyone is talking about Kharg Island. So that's clearly one of the sites they're looking at. And again, there are a couple of places along the coast, including Bandarabas, this port on the mainland, which could be taken as well. Mary Louise, the Marines have been studying this.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

Yeah. How do they train for this? For 40 years studying a scenario like this?

[Tom Bowman]

Correct.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

Huh. And how do they train for it?

[Tom Bowman]

Well, you know, they do amphibious operations all the time. And in this case, I'm told you could move them in by ospreys, those tilt rotor aircraft. A more likely scenario, I'm told, is the Marines will just punch through the Strait of Hormuz, get up to Kharga island, offload the infantry troops, some 800 infantry troops. They're also equipped with Cobra attack helicopters, F35 fighters as well, artillery drones, anti drone capabilities. So, you know, it's a pretty formidable, you know, group here of Marines. That's one scenario.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

I mean, just one more note on the geography. We were noting the size of this small island that suddenly everybody in the world is paying a lot of attention to the location we noted. It is very close to the coast of mainland Iran, but it is several hundred miles to the north of the Strait of Hormuz. So if one of the stated goals now this war is we gotta get the Strait of Hormuz sorted and secure and reopened to shipping traffic, they're gonna be a few hundred miles away.

[Tom Bowman]

No, that's right. I think this is an economic target. Again, getting back to the oil facilities area. So squeeze them economically. It doesn't really do much for opening the Strait of Hormuz, although Bandar Abbas, that port would, because that's closer to the Strait of Hormuz.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

Right.

[Tom Bowman]

But you know, I gotta tell you, I was talking to this other retired Rear Admiral Mark Montgomery, and he was kind of shaking his head over this whole Carg Island. He said, if you want to deny the Iranians Carg island, just send out a message. The next oil tanker that shows up heading to Carg island, we're going to blow it up. You've achieved what you wanted. You're hurting them economically. You don't have to send a bunch of Marines or paratroopers to grab Carg Island.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

Do we know what Iran's response has been to this military buildup? Maybe we know, headed to the region, maybe headed somewhere toward Carg Island.

[Ebba Trowey]

Just as the Marines have been training for a scenario like this, as Tom was saying for years and years, so have the Iranians. We've been hearing no confirmation on this, but they've been mining the area and that they too are ready. And we've heard their officials say bluntly come, we're ready for you.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

And what about response in the Gulf to this? Looking like it's escalating, like more troops are coming, not fewer.

[Ebba Trowey]

So you know, when President Trump just a few days ago had put out that 48 hour deadline about hitting Iranian power plants, it was the first time that I started and others here in the Gulf, I started seeing people posting videos of this as well, that they were looking for solar panels and looking for generators. We've never had to do that before in these very wealthy Gulf cities and capitals. So that really caused a lot of concern because Iran said that they would respond by hitting power plants and water desalination plants here in the Gulf if their power plants were hit. So obviously we know that Trump backed off on that 48 hour plan. But I'm speaking to you before his five day deadline now is approaching and nearing its end. And so there's still a lot of concern, there's a lot of unease. Just this morning here in the UAE, there were 15 ballistic, ballistic missile interceptions. I heard several of them overhead here in Dubai around 7:38 in the morning. I can hear fighter jets outside now.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

All right. Let's take a short break. When we get back. Now that thousands of American troops are headed to the Middle east, is military force enough to secure the Strait of Hormuz? That's ahead on Sources and Methods from npr.

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[Mary Louise Kelly]

We're back. President Trump has been urging Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. He has begged allies to help secure it. He has lifted sanctions on Russian oil and then lifted sanctions on Iranian oil. And still Iran has not budged. It is allowing a small number of ships to pass, ships with no ties to the US or to Israel. And now we have Trump's latest move, sending in Marines, 82nd Airborne. Tom, could Trump use troops to reopen the Strait of Hormuz? Like, is that actually a possibility?

[Tom Bowman]

Oh, yeah. I mean, if you're going to open the strait, it's going to be a massive undertaking. I talked to this retired Rear Admiral Jamie Fogo. Now, he ran naval operations during the 2011 attacks on Muammar Gaddafi in Libya. I remember back then. And he said, listen, first of all, what you have to do is you have to own the skies around the Strait of Hormuz, a 50 mile radius combat air patrol with, you know, scores of tankers and attack aircraft and so forth. You have to own that number one. Number two, we have to send in minesweepers to make sure you get rid of all those Iranian mines. Iran says it has dropped some of those mines in the water. We're not sure if that's actually happened. But you want to make sure there are no mines there, number two. And number three is you want to bring in destroyers to escort the oil tankers out of the Persian Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz. I asked him, I said, okay, if President Trump said to you, admiral, I want you to put together something that opens the Strait of Hormuz, how long would it take? He said a month, just to get that underway.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

I mean, I just want to pause for a second because we are almost a month into this war with Iran and it's an air battle clearly, airstrikes continuing on Iranian targets, Iran continuing to shoot back. We have major naval assets in the waters around the Persian Gulf. And you're talking about maybe boots on the ground with Marines headed in. And now you're talking about, I mean, that sounds like it would be A significant naval battle to force open the Strait of Hormuz and then to keep it open.

[Tom Bowman]

Absolutely. It's a huge undertaking. And then the threat that you didn't have in Libya, Admiral Fogo told me, is you have all these drones now, small drones that could attack all these ships, the oil tankers and also the US Warships.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

You can clean up every mine they can lay as fast as they can lay them. And you still got drones.

[Tom Bowman]

Right. And there's a lot of clutter out there with your radar when you're trying to find out who's doing what, what's out there. So some of these smaller drones, Eesha head drones, which are small and fast, and you could swarm some of these ships that could be definitely a threat, along with these mines.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

Back up, because it wasn't so long ago, it was two weeks ago, that Pete Hegseth, Secretary of Defense, was saying, we got this under control, we have

[Tom Bowman]

been dealing with it and don't need to worry about it. Were on plan to defeat, destroy, disable all of their meaningful military capabilities at a pace the world has never seen before.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

Don't worry about it. And then a week later, this is last Friday, President Trump was asked about opening the Strait. He also seemed to downplay what that would look like, what it would take. This is him speaking with reporters just before he was leaving the White House.

[Tom Bowman]

You said opening the Strait of Hollow

[Mary Louise Kelly]

is a simple military maneuver.

[Tom Bowman]

Very simple.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

Yeah, but what did you mean by that?

[Tom Bowman]

It's a simple military maneuver. It's relatively safe, but you need a lot of help in the sense of you need ships, you need volume. And NATO could help us, but they so far haven't had the courage to do so. And others could help us, but, you know, we don't use it. You know, at a certain point it'll open itself. It's not going to open itself. No, no, no, no.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

Not going to open it. What's the disconnect, though, between those comments and what you're telling me about how well to.

[Tom Bowman]

Let's say the President isn't a military expert, number one. And number two is, I think, you know, I'm paying a dollar more per gallon than I was three weeks ago. And I'm sure people, some other parts of the country, it's even more number one. Number two is it's very complex, as I just laid out, according to what Admiral Fogo told me. Will the, you know, you need these minesweepers, you need assistance from Europe. Will they weigh in and help? It's possible because for natural gas in Europe, it's doubled in the past three weeks. So they may get to a point in Europe where the population says to their governments, listen, you have to help the United States reopen the Strait of Horror. Moose. This is hurting everybody. So it's possible you could see Europe at some point in the next month or so, say, okay, we'll send minesweepers, we'll send aircraft, we'll send maybe destroyers. But I was talking to one European military officer. He said if we decided to send minesweepers, let's say it would take six weeks to get there.

[Ebba Trowey]

Or they could come in and say we need to end the war rather than join it. Because, I mean, one thing again from the Gulf here, the US Bases have been hit really hard, and a lot of these troops are now working remotely. The New York Times just put out an article saying they're working from hotels and offices around the Gulf. And we've seen residential buildings and we've seen offices being precisely targeted in Bahrain and other areas where it was believed from early on in the war that US Troops were living in those hotels and residences. So the US has already gotten a beating in the Gulf on its bases here. We've already seen like a massive fuel depot just outside Riyadh hit last week. And the Iranians say that was being used for refueling of US Jets. And also the Ras Lafan gas complex, Mary Louise, that was just hit a week ago on Thursday. That is a massive blow to Qatar. I just want to say, when we're talking about getting oil and gas moving, you've just taken 17% of one of the world's biggest gas producers in the world's capacity to export gas off. And they say that that could be for up to five years before that that can be repaired and come back online. They're saying $20 billion in revenue lost a year. They're talking about the impact to China, to Italy, to Belgium, to South Korea. So this isn't just about getting ships through. And also, insurance companies may not want to get those ships moving even if they have escorts, insurance companies. And these ships are privately owned. And they may not agree to this even if you have those in place in the best case scenario.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

Let's take a quick break. When we return, deal or no Deal. What's on the negotiation table between Iran and the United States? That's ahead on Sources and Methods from npr.

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[Mary Louise Kelly]

We're back. And a note real quick. We have had a busy week on this show. Two episodes are in your feed behind this one. They are good. One is with the author of a new book about how the Pentagon is using AI. The book is Project Maven. I recommend it. And another one with Sweden's top general, General Michael Claussen. He gave us a European military perspective on the state of NATO, the war in Ukraine, other topics. So make sure you catch those if you haven't already. Okay, back to this week's news. Peace talks. President Trump says they're on, that they are happening, that they're ongoing. Iran denies that. What do we know about these talks, starting with who's talking?

[Ebba Trowey]

So we did get confirmation, we reported this early, but then we also have official confirmation now that Egypt and Pakistan have both said they were involved. They're involved in passing messages now. And that's because the traditional mediators, which have been all men in Qatar in the past, they came under attack after this war began, some retaliation attacks from Iran. And so they're not involved in the talks at the moment, although all men says they are playing a role at this moment. But the talks seem to be or not talks, let's say the backchannel efforts to get talks going are being conducted by Egypt and Pakistan. And Egypt foreign minister actually met with some reporters in Cairo on Wednesday and he told our producer in Cairo that and the other journalists there that actually it was President Trump who asked Egypt to reach out and get this going. So it was actuallydoesn't seem to be that Iran was the one that asked for this, but rather it was the White House, President Trump himself who asked

[Mary Louise Kelly]

for this, got it.

[Tom Bowman]

And it's important to note who reached out to who. If the president is reaching out to Egypt and Pakistan to say, help us with talks, be the intermediary. They're operating from a position of weakness.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

Who is on the Iranian side of these talks? Do we know? AI I mean, we keep every day there's a new report of some new senior member of the government or the military establishment who's been killed.

[Ebba Trowey]

So Egypt's foreign minister was asked this question by journalists in Cairo. Who are you speaking with? And he said all of their contacts are directly with the Foreign Ministry. So it seemed that the Foreign Ministry is like this, still the public forward face of Iran's very big and expansive working regime. But that doesn't mean that they're the ones calling the shots or necessarily making the decision or putting forth the rebuttals, but they're the ones that are involved in, you could say, the outreach and in the backchannel talks.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

All right, so that is the who. Let's get to the what. What we know and what we don't about what the substance is of what these talks to start talks may be. We know President Trump came up with a 15 point plan to end the war. What do we know about what?

[Tom Bowman]

Senate, One of the things is give up your enriched uranium now it's 60%. Get rid of your enrichment program, also limit the amount of missiles you can build and also stop supporting your proxies in the region like Hezbollah and Hamas. That's part of it. That's what we know is in it. But these have been on the table for a long, long time. It's nothing new here.

[Ebba Trowey]

Yeah.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

Our colleague in Tel Aviv, Daniel Estrin, has been reporting that his sources are saying the proposal out of the White House to end this war is pretty darn close to what was on the table before the war when there were diplomatic attacks happen. We also know that Iran has said, yeah, thanks, but no thanks. Right. What are they countering with?

[Ebba Trowey]

Yeah, I mean, first of all, they're not even saying that there are talks. They've just countered with, I guess, a response. And what they're saying is that first of all, that Iran will end this war when it decides to do so on its own conditions. And it says those conditions include attacks on Iran, ending guarantees that the war would stay ending, it wouldn't come back. They also want sanctions relief, they want reparations for what's happened. They've moved. It made clear even before this war began that missile production to them was a matter of national defense and sovereignty. So that seems to still be off the table.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

You're reminding me of a sign that I saw when I was reporting from Iran, the funeral for General Qasem Soleimani, who the US had just assassinated. And Iranians were angry and out in the streets, and I remember a guy holding up a sign that I took a picture of, and it reads, hey, US, you started. We will end it. So that sign is. That's pretty much sounds like the official response from Tehran to President Trump's plan to end the war. It sounds like Iran thinks they're winning. Is that right, Aya?

[Ebba Trowey]

From where I'm sitting, Iran isn't losing. Yes. Their population is being hit hard. Yes. They've lost a lot of civilians. That school, we now believed that the US Was behind that attack. The Manab school, I mean, these are tragic.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

The girls school.

[Ebba Trowey]

Yeah, yeah. And there's a lot of people suffering in Iran because of this war. The propaganda machine out there on the Internet now is proud, it's projecting this strength that they're able to take on the global superpower in this way again. They've hit US Bases, they've hit Israel very hard. They're also able to send those oil prices really high, because the whole idea was that they can't hit America back on American soil, but what they could do was they could inflict so much pain on America's allies in the Gulf and on energy markets that this war becomes unsustainable. And that seems to be where it's headed, the war. You know, prices are going up so high. There's problems now and real, real concerns about fertilizer and other stuff that's required with the gas and oil production here in the Gulf countries, their economies are hurting. And like I said before, it's not just about getting oil tankers and gas moving through the Strait of Hormuz. It's also about stopping the attacks on the actual energy facilities that are required for that production. Like I said, Qatar's gas production is, you know, 17% less now, and it could take five years before it comes fully back online.

[Tom Bowman]

And it's important to note that the Iranian regime is still in power, and they could win just by surviving.

[Ebba Trowey]

Yeah.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

So let's land here. Closing in on a month, nearing 30 days of the war. Do either of you see an off ramp?

[Tom Bowman]

I don't see it in the near future. In the coming weeks, the US Will still press Iran to come to the negotiating table again from a position of weakness. They'll continue to bomb, Israel will continue to bomb, and also the Iranians will continue to make attacks, particularly in the Gulf countries as well. And it's important to note, remember the long range missile they shot to Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean. Now it was knocked out by air defenses, but that tells you something. The range of that was 2,500 miles. And the concern is that they're basically holding on. They're rationing some of their more long range missiles. That has to be a real concern, particularly to the US Military.

[Ebba Trowey]

Yeah, yeah. Off the back of that, you know, when we talk about off ramps, let's just go back to day one, the first hours of this war. The opening salva of this war was killing and decapitating the regime. And that meant killing Khomeini, the Supreme Leader. After that, it was almost as if it was designed so that there can't be an off ramp. You know, and now we have his son as the Supreme Leader after he's lost his wife, his child and both his parents in that attack. So when we talk about an off ramp, you know, we have to think about also who we're dealing with, a new Supreme Leader who we don't, we haven't heard from yet, we haven't seen. But we do know what happened to his family and his father. And so what, what kind of off ramp can we possibly imagine from this? And then just the other thing, like I'm saying about the oil and gas prices, they've been able to inflict global economic pain for the pain that they has been inflicted on them. And so whatever flexibility we saw in the last two rounds of negotiations, they now say there's no trust. Because how they keep saying, the Iranians keep saying, how can there be talks and how can there be any diplomacy when the last two times we were in the middle of diplomatic negotiations, we got bombed and a war was launched

[Mary Louise Kelly]

on us, we got attacked. All right, with that we will end with OSINT open source intelligence. The not so secret, not classified, but very telling details we stumble across in our reporting. Aya, kick us off.

[Ebba Trowey]

Okay, so one thing I wanted to bring to everyone's attention, there's been sort of data compiled by different people online. One of them is a, an analysis firm called Horizons Insights. And they collect data from government statements and Ministry of Defense statements across the region. And what they found was that 37% of all of Iran's counter attacks have been on the UAE. Then Israel, 15% of the attacks, and then Kuwait and Saudi.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

Fascinating, since it's Israel that's attacking Iran, not the UAE. Go on.

[Ebba Trowey]

One thing I would say about the UAE, so they have had to intercept well over 2,000 of these missiles and drones, most of them have been drones. And you can't possibly use interceptors for all of that. There's just too many to intercept with traditional interceptors. So what we've seen and what we've heard is that the UAE's actually been going after these drones, chasing them with helicopters and fighter jets and trying to chase them out into open spaces like the desert, and then firing at them in order to get them to not fall and cause fires and debris and cause deaths here on residents in places like Dubai and Abu Dhabi. Although, as I'm speaking to you, two more residents of the UAE were killed today from debris in Abu Dhabi. So it's not a perfect process, but that's what they've been doing, at least for the drones.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

That's wild. Using fighter jets to chase a drone.

[Tom Bowman]

Pretty expensive.

[Ebba Trowey]

Expensive? I was just going to say, Tom, expensive. That's not a cheap thing to do.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

Tom, what you got?

[Tom Bowman]

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and President Trump have sent the same message to the Iranian people. Rise up and take over your government. Very easy to say because the protesters don't have weapons. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard, they do have weapons. But Mayor Louise, there was a time when the population did rise up to overthrow its government. That was in 1979, when the Shah's government fell and Ayatollah Khomeini came to power. The only reason the people rose up was because the military stood back. The top general in Iran at the time, General Abbas Garabaghi, put out a message saying the military would be neutral in the current political dispute in order to prevent further disorder and bloodshed. So all military personnel went back to their bases, effectively yielding control of the entire country to Ayatollah Khomeini. Now, the general worked with the Ayatollah's government for a time, and then things got a little sketchy with him and the government. He fled to Paris. And today he is buried in a cemetery in Paris alongside Oscar Wilde in the Door's frontman, Jim Morrison.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

I know. The cemetery. Pere Lachaise.

[Tom Bowman]

That's right.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

Okay. All right, I will end with In Q Tel. Do either of you know what that is?

[Tom Bowman]

Yes, it is.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

Okay, so in Q Tel, it is a CIA backed venture capital firm. It's like the innovation shop for the CIA. And they seed spy gadgets, spy software, and the issue is CIA backed. I said that. Tulsi Gabbard, who is the dni, the Director of National Intelligence, wants to yank it away from the CIA and put it under her domain at the Office of the Director of National Intelligence. This is per story 4 bylines in POLITICO, by the way. They've sourced it to six people with, quote, knowledge of the effort. And apparently the rationale for doing this switch would be the thinking that in Q Tel, the way it's currently set up caters too much to the CIA, that there are all these other spy agencies, defense agencies, who could benefit. So let's put it under dni. I don't have visibility into whether this is a good idea or what all the implications would be. But I will say the reason it caught my eye is it's such a reminder of just the baked in tensions over who runs the US Intelligence community. For many decades. It was the CIA. And if you were the Director of the CIA, you were also the Director of Central Intelligence. You ran the whole shebang. That changed after 911 because there was seen to be a need to have someone steering the broader enterprise and bashing heads together and forcing the CIA to share what it knew with the FBI and vice versa. I remember sitting in those hearings not far from where you and I are sitting today, Tom, over at the Senate Hart Office Building where all these people came in and testified. And the top recommendation that came out of those 911 Commission hearings was let's set up a Director of National Intelligence. But they left so many questions unresolved over what that would look like and how that would work. Today you have a CIA director who reports to the dni, but who has a way bigger workforce and budget and field offices around the world.

[Tom Bowman]

And is it just one more layer of bureaucracy? Is it more efficient?

[Mary Louise Kelly]

That's always been one of the questions. So here you have what looks like just a little bureaucratic squabble who should in Q Tel ultimately report to. But I suspect it reveals much deeper tensions still over who's in charge of the 18 U.S. spy agencies that make up the U.S. intelligence community.

[Ebba Trowey]

18. Wow.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

18. That includes the DNI and the CIA. All right, we have been speaking with EA Bottrali reporting from her base in Dubai and Pentagon correspondent Tom Bowman here in Washington. Thanks to you both.

[Tom Bowman]

You're welcome.

[Ebba Trowey]

Thank you.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

All right, now for our special event coming up next week, here's the date. It's gonna be Tuesday, March 31st at noon Eastern. You can join me and Greg Myrey, another regular here on the show on Zoom. We're gonna be discussing the latest news out of Iran. We will take time to answer as many of your questions as we can about the news of the day, our work on the NADSAC beat and more. So as always, we welcome your [e-mail] Again, this event is for supporters. If that is you, thank you. And you should have already received an email with details on how to register. We'd be so excited for you to join us. This is a thank you for your support. If you're not a supporter yet, it's not too late. This is your chance. Sign [e-mail] you will get an invitation via email. Now. An event like this is just one perk of npr. Plus sponsor free listening is another. There is also access to our full episode archive, discounts in the NPR shop, and of course, the joy of supporting independent nonprofit journalism. So again plus.NPR.org I'm Mary Louise Kelly. Hope to see you Tuesday. And we are back next week with another episode of Sources and Methods from npr.

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