Trump's options dwindle / Inside Iran / U.S. arsenal depleted?

Summary

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Podcast Summary: Sources & Methods (NPR)

Episode: Trump's options dwindle / Inside Iran / U.S. arsenal depleted?

Date: July 30, 2026
Host: Sacha Pfeiffer in for Mary Louise Kelly
Guests: Tom Bowman (Pentagon Correspondent), Arzu Rezvani (Iran Reporter)

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Episode Overview

This episode dives into dramatic recent developments in the U.S.-Iran conflict, the strain on America’s military arsenal, and the complex emotional and political climate inside Iran. The discussion is driven by NPR correspondents with deep experience on these beats, unpacking everything from regional escalation, high-stakes negotiations, the humanity behind the headlines, and the growing concern over U.S. missile stockpiles.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Escalation of U.S.-Iran Conflict

[00:33–04:35]

• The truce between U.S. and Iran has ended; fresh rounds of strikes have embroiled U.S., Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan.
• Notable incident: Iran hit a U.S. military base in Jordan; the U.S. responded with extensive airstrikes against Iranian targets.
• Attacks have expanded geographically, including a drone attack in Kuwait and another at a gas vessel in Egypt (close to the Suez Canal).
• Iranian-backed militias in Iraq pledge revenge following U.S.-Saudi strikes on their positions, intensifying the regional nature of the conflict.

Quote:

“The US military did hit Iran very hard. Two hours of airstrikes at drone bases, missile sites, headquarters depots and so forth.”
— Tom Bowman [02:13]

[03:03] Arzu confirms that several members of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps were killed, a major escalation.

2. Saudi Arabia’s New Role, Nuclear Ambitions & Abraham Accords

[03:11–04:26]

• Saudi Arabia becomes an active participant, motivated by escalating drone attacks and recent threats to its shipping lanes.
• The Houthis in Yemen, supported by Iran, declared a blockade of Saudi ships.
• Saudi Arabia announces nuclear ambitions and signs a deal with the U.S.; Trump demands recognition of Israel as part of the Abraham Accords for progress.

Quote:

“...all of this is kind of happening all at the same time. And I don't think it's terribly surprising that all of a sudden Saudi Arabia has jumped into this in this way.”
— Arzu Rezvani [04:26]

3. The Diplomatic Picture: Stalled Negotiations

[04:42–07:10]

• Efforts at negotiation are ongoing, with mediators Oman, Qatar, and Pakistan involved, but the sides remain far apart.
  • The U.S. insists Iran abandon its nuclear program.
  • Iran seeks to retain the right to limited enrichment for civilian use, as under the Obama-era deal.
• The Strait of Hormuz is a central negotiation point, with Oman proposing joint management but Iran insisting on mandatory tolls for passage—contrary to previous norms of free navigation.

Quote:

“You either go in militarily and open the strait with many more ships and air aircraft and so forth, or you somehow give Iran a carrot.”
— Tom Bowman [06:21]

4. Iran’s Strategic Leverage & Internal Politics

[07:10–10:47]

• Iran’s ability to control and disrupt the Strait of Hormuz is its core leverage.
• Internal divisions: Some leaders want negotiation due to economic/military pressures; hardliners reject compromise.
• Western (especially U.S.) policymakers may underestimate two things:
  • Iran’s immunity to popular opinion (“leaders are not beholden to public opinion the way American leaders are.” — Arzu Rezvani [08:59])
  • The regime’s theology of martyrdom and willingness to embrace sacrifice, undermining the effectiveness of standard deterrence.

Quote:

“Death is not a deterrent, necessarily… it's viewed as a legitimate sacrifice. So these conventional carrots and sticks… are suddenly not as effective here.”
— Arzu Rezvani [10:20]

5. Voices from Inside Iran: Public Sentiment and Psychological Toll

[12:54–19:23]

• Views across society are complex:
  • Some hardliners support the government.
  • Some former critics, feeling threatened and fearing partition or loss of national integrity, now rally behind the regime.
  • Others, especially youth, feel deep despair or once celebrated the idea of regime change but have grown disillusioned.

Notable Moments:

• Hussein, once a protestor, now supports the government out of fear for Iran’s future as a unified state ([13:29–14:00]).
• A 22-year-old woman initially overjoyed at the U.S.-led bombing for regime change lost hope as human rights advocacy faded from the agenda; her despair is palpable:

Quote:

"I don't have any dream anymore. I don't have any hopes. I have nothing... Please don't text me again..."
— Anonymous young Iranian woman [15:49]

• It is now “too dangerous” for many to even speak to journalists.

6. Iran’s Economic Collapse

[19:23–20:40]

• Wartime Iran faces devastating economic hardship: essential goods (like milk and chicken) have doubled in price, mass layoffs due to internet shutdown, job losses across sectors.
• Widespread anger that a resource-rich country’s people suffer while, in their view, the government invests in destabilizing foreign adventures.

Quote:

“...they don't understand why Iran has instead chosen to invest in instability and chaos by way of proxies... while they're suffering inside Iran.”
— Arzu Rezvani [20:40]

7. Depletion of the U.S. Missile Arsenal

[22:18–26:58]

• The U.S. supply of Patriot missiles and other key munitions is significantly reduced.
  • Only ~700-800 Patriots remain out of a prewar stockpile of 2,400.
• This creates real and perceived vulnerabilities for the U.S. and its allies against persistent Iranian drone and missile attacks.
• Concerns: Can the U.S. guarantee air defense for its allies? Is China watching and learning?

Quote:

“The US Arsenal is depleted. Some elements are quite depleted… It will take several years, one to five, to replace these.”
— Mark Cancian (quoted by Tom Bowman) [22:45]

8. How Much Longer Can War Drag On?

[26:11–26:58]

• Original U.S. expectation: 4–5 weeks of conflict. Reality: Heading into sixth month.
• No clear end in sight; both sides buying time.

Quote:

“What war we're fighting now could look very different in a few weeks' time.”
— Arzu Rezvani [25:56]

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Memorable Quotes & Moments

• “Martyrdom is a key pillar … so these conventional carrots and sticks … are suddenly not as effective here.” — Arzu Rezvani [10:20]
• “I don't have any dream anymore. I don't have any hopes. I have nothing.” — Anonymous student [15:49]
• “The US military did hit Iran very hard. Two hours of airstrikes at drone bases, missile sites, headquarters depots …” — Tom Bowman [02:13]
• “The US Arsenal is depleted. Some elements are quite depleted.” — Mark Cancian (via Tom Bowman) [22:45]

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Timestamps for Key Segments

• 00:33 – Opening summary: war expansion and strikes
• 02:13 – U.S. airstrikes against Iranian targets
• 03:11 – Confirmation of Iranian Revolutionary Guard deaths
• 04:26 – Saudi involvement and nuclear ambitions
• 06:13 – Negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz
• 07:10–08:59 – Iran’s leverage, negotiation dynamics
• 12:54–15:49 – Voices from Iran: changing support, despair
• 19:23 – Iran’s economic woes
• 22:18–23:43 – U.S. missile depletion
• 26:11–26:58 – War duration, both sides buying time
• 27:18–29:09 – OSINT: Iran’s censorship and U.S. service women’s deaths

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Open Source Intelligence (OSINT) Segment

• Iranian media censorship: State TV cut off key officials' pro-negotiation speeches. The regime justifies this as preventing “duality” in leadership—an attempt to enforce unity through censorship. [27:18]
• Women and immigrants in U.S. military: Two of three US soldiers killed in Jordan were women; one was an immigrant from Trinidad & Tobago—this amid Trump-era efforts to restrict both immigration and women’s combat roles. [28:07]
• Technology and privacy: A U.S. protester used a “wipe code” on his phone to erase data at the border, leading to obstruction charges; raises new legal and privacy debates. [29:09]

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Conclusion

The episode paints a sobering picture of a rapidly evolving, complex conflict. The U.S.-Iran war is broadening, options for both sides are dwindling, and the costs—to military strength, regional stability, and especially to civilians—are mounting. Inside Iran, psychological and economic suffering is acute. Meanwhile, the revelation of U.S. weapons shortages could reshape adversaries’ calculations. The episode closes by highlighting censorship, the human cost for military families, and emerging tensions over privacy tools in law enforcement.

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For in-depth understanding of the U.S.-Iran conflict, on-the-ground sentiment, and evolving military realities, this episode of Sources & Methods is essential listening.

Transcript

[A]

This week on the NPR Politics podcast, a surprising number of Americans from both parties agree government corruption is a big problem, but will it matter when they vote in November? What Democrats are trying to do is link it to voters. Number one issue, which is affordability. We dissect the arguments you'll be hearing more and more as the midterms get closer on the NPR Politics podcast.

[B]

Clearly, the war is widening throughout the whole region now. A lot has happened just in the past 24 hours.

[A]

A new round of strikes between Iran and the United States, an expansion that has embroiled forces in Saudi Arabia and Jordan, plus concerns about missile shortages in the US Arsenal. Is this a new phase of the war with Iran? This is Sources and Methods from npr. I'm Sacha Pfeiffer in for Mary Louise Kelly. It's Thursday, July 30th. That means it's Sources and Methods Day, and that means we're diving into the week's biggest national security stories. We with NPR reporters out covering them this week. We have NPR Pentagon correspondent Tom Bowman here with me in the studio. Hi, Tom.

[B]

Good to be here.

[A]

And NPR reporter Arzu Rezvani, who's been covering the war with Iran and has been in touch with various sources inside the country. She's joining us from Los Angeles. Hi, Arzu.

[C]

Hi, Sasha.

[A]

And to timestamp this, it is just after noon here in Washington, and it's 9 in the morning in California. And today, as we said, we're talking about the latest developments in the war with Iran. Let's back up first and give some context, because for a few days, the US And Iran had entered a brief period with no direct fighting between the two. Then the White House said it was pausing strikes to give diplomacy another shot. Here's what President Trump told reporters on Monday.

[B]

You know, we're having good talks, so we'll see what happens. I think there's a good chance that something could happen, and if it does, good. If it doesn't, we go back to doing what we were doing two days ago.

[A]

Then on Tuesday evening, US Time, Iran hit a US Military base in Jordan. And on Wednesday, Trump told FOX News that the United States will hit Iran very hard. Tom, it is now Thursday afternoon, as we said. Tell us where things stand now.

[B]

Well, the US Military did hit Iran very hard. Two hours of airstrikes at drone bases, missile sites, headquarters depots and so forth. There was an Iranian drone attack in Kuwait, killing a worker. And and then there was a drone attack at a gas vessel at a port in Egypt near the Suez Canal. No one is claiming responsibility, but Egypt is suggesting it was Iran. And finally, the Iranian backed militias in Iraq are vowing revenge after the US And Saudi hit half dozen sites in Iraq, their sites because the Iranian backed militias were striking oil infrastructure in Saudi. And I believe some of those folks that were killed were Iranian Revolutionary Guards. Isn't that right, Arizu?

[C]

That's right. Iran state media has confirmed that at least several Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps members were killed in that.

[A]

And Arzu, is it also right that Sataris haven't really been directly involved before? So.

[C]

Yeah, that's true. Yeah, I think they've been, they've gotten involved for a few different reasons. One is that in recent days, over the course of just 72 hours, you, you know, 30 drones were fired on U.S. forces and Saudi infrastructure. And so they felt that they were, you know, coming under attack and had to respond. Then you have the fact that last week on July 20, the Houthis, which are an Iran aligned armed faction in Yemen, announced that they would be blockading Saudi ships and in the Bab El Mandeb Strait, which is another key waterway in that region. And all of this is also happening as Saudi Arabia has announced that it has nuclear ambitions and it signed a deal with the United States to pursue a nuclear program. President Trump has now demanded that should Saudi Arabia want to seriously pursue that, that they need to recognize Israel as part of the Abraham Accords. So all of this is kind of happening all at the same time. And I don't think it's terribly surprising that all of a sudden Saudi Arabia has jumped into this in this way.

[A]

So as we see the war widening and more countries being sucked into the vortex, does this feel to you, Tom, like a new phase in the war?

[B]

It may be early to say that, but clearly the war is widening. A lot has happened just in the past 24 hours.

[A]

So what kind of pressure does this put on both sides to try to come back to the negotiation table and actually bring this to an end? Tom, any sense of where that moves the deal making?

[B]

Well, what's amazing is, you know, Trump said earlier this week the talks were going pretty well, good talks I guess he said. But now what we're seeing on the nuclear side is Oman is a mediator talking with Iran about the way ahead. Also, Qatar and Pakistan are involved in these talks as well, but they're very far apart. The US Wants them to completely give up their nuclear program. Iran is insisting at least have some, you know, civilian commercial use of enriched uranium. You know, at 3.7% like they had during the Obama nuclear accord. And then the other negotiation going on is over the Strait of Hormuz. Right. Oman is talking with.

[A]

To get it open back up again.

[B]

To open it back up again. It is somewhat open. Fewer than a dozen ships are going through the strait. Right.

[A]

They probably have great trepidations going through

[B]

that strait because Iran is still threatening or attacking some of those ships. Now, before the war started, of course, 130 ships per day were going through the straits, and the numbers now down to.

[A]

What did you say?

[B]

Fewer than a dozen? Yeah. Right now, Oman is talking with Iran about sort of a joint management of the Strait of Hormuz. What Oman is saying is we want to charge voluntary fees to ships coming through. And they suggested that to Iran we'll just have voluntary fees. Iran said, no, we want to charge mandatory fees for them going through the Strait of Hormuz.

[A]

Tollgate. Toll gate.

[B]

Basically correct. Of course, before the war started, it was freedom of the seas. And freedom of the seas means free.

[C]

Right.

[B]

The US Is. They have two choices, really. You either go in militarily and open the strait with many more ships and air aircraft and so forth, or you somehow give Iran a carrot. Now, is it allowing them to charge fees? Is it unfreezing some of their assets? I think that's where we are because we're all paying more for gas. The gas at my gas station went up 22 cents just in the past week to 419. Right. You know, food is costing more because diesel and fertilizer going through the Strait of Hormuz, you know, is not coming through it the adequate level. So, again, food prices are going up. Farmers, in some instances, are planting fewer crops. That's going to drive prices up. The problem for this administration is they have to find a way to open the strait.

[C]

Well, if I can jump on something that Tom said, you know, I think it's very unlikely that the Iranians will willingly give up much control of the strait. I think that they have recognized over the years that they do not have the upper hand when it comes to military hardware and strength and power when they're up against the United States. But where they do have a possible edge is controlling the Strait of Hormuz. That's where they can inflict a lot of pain and throw their weight around. And so I just. I don't think that that's going to be an easy concession for them.

[A]

So, Arzu, given this powerful leverage that Iran has, it can close the strait. It can throttle the strait. It can charge money for ships to go through. How are Iranians you talk to, viewing the talks and how likely they are to result in.

[C]

You know, it's not clear that the people carrying out the negotiations are really in line with the people who are carrying out the war in Iran. Within the ruling establishment, you have people who believe that it's really important for Iran to negotiate with the United States, that they have their backs against the wall. The economy has not been doing well.

[A]

They're just getting pummeled militarily and economically,

[C]

and they can only sustain a war for so long. So there's that wing of the government. But then you also have hardliners who don't want any engagement at all, and they want the war to resume. So the feelings, the messaging has been, I would say, all over the map. But there are two things that I think the Trump administration hasn't fully appreciated in their approach at the Iranians. I mean, I think one is the fact that Iran is not a democratic system, and leaders are not beholden to public opinion the way American leaders are.

[A]

So public discontent or public opinion against the war is much less likely to have an impact than it would in our country.

[C]

Exactly, exactly. I mean, discontent, criticism, dissent. I mean, those are the things that they have no hesitation crushing.

[B]

In fact, didn't they just hang a couple of people?

[A]

That's right. Public executions, right?

[C]

That's right. The Iranian government has been executing dissidents and critics and people that it views as getting in the way of their power and their rule. And so the other part of this is that the theological and psychological belief system driving the Iranians, I think, is not fully recognized and appreciated here. Martyrdom is a key pillar of political thinking in Iran. And when you consider how the late Supreme Leader, for example, died by assassination or martyrdom, as they would characterize it, that was always the ideal way for him to go. He had always pined for that. And so when you have that kind of thinking driving the other side, the threat of escalation or assassination doesn't quite carry the same weight.

[A]

And the fear of loss of lives that some Americans might have for their own soldiers may not be as much of a consideration in Iran. The death is not a deterrent, necessarily.

[C]

That's right. I think it's viewed as a legitimate sacrifice. So if there are civilian casualties, that it's viewed as a sacrifice as part of this mission to keep the regime in place. So these conventional carrots and sticks that might be effective in other settings are suddenly not as effective here. And I think the challenge for this administration is to figure out how to entice and incentivize differently.

[A]

That's quite a revealing explanation for why these negotiations are so difficult and resolving this war is so difficult. Let's take a quick break, but first, a reminder to make sure that you are following this show wherever you listen. So you always get new episodes as soon as they're available. That's usually around 5 or 6pm Eastern time on Thursdays. When we get back, more of the view from Inside Iran. That's ahead on Sources and Methods from npr.

[D]

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[C]

This week on Consider this. Stay ahead of the latest news about AI. We unpack the wild story of two models that hacked into another company.

[B]

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[C]

That's on the TED Radio Hour podcast.

[A]

Listen on the NPR app or wherever you get your podcasts. All right, we are back. And Arzu, you have spent a lot of time covering the war with Iran and speaking with people in Iran now that the war has entered its sixth month. What are people telling you there about how they feel at this point?

[C]

Yeah, I would say it's a real tangle of emotions. I mean, there are people I've spoken with who very much share the feelings and opinions of their leaders who belong to the hardline camp, the hardliner camp, and they are very much backing their government. So you have that segment of society. I have spoken to people who before this war were very critical of the government and have all of a sudden decided that they want to back their government in this moment, not just out

[A]

of fear of getting in trouble if they speak against the government.

[C]

But in actual truth, not just out of fear. I mean, I spoke to one man, his name's Hussein. He asked that we just use his first name for fear of government retribution, who for many years, he said he was against this government, very critical of it, participated in the protest movements, was out on the streets and then. And he felt that there was a very legitimate democratic movement, organic, internal, inside Iran. And he feels that the United States disrupted that.

[A]

I mean, they are invading the country

[C]

that I love and they interrupted what I think was a collective struggle for democracy. And for sure, when a war happens, a lot of people get scared, but I think I'm more angry than scared. He also has fears that should the United States and Israel succeed in toppling this government, that it won't be long before there's this project of partitioning Iran. And I think that's a huge fear among Iranians that Iran could break up eventually. It's a very ethnically diverse, culturally diverse country. And so it's not beyond the realm of possibility. And so he has now found himself in this position where, you know, he feels very much attacked and worries about the future. And for that reason, very much is standing behind this government. And then when I think about some of the more memorable voices I have been in touch with from the last several months, you know, there's this 22 year old student in Tehran. She is someone I have been in touch with for several years. We first started communicating in 2022 around the women Life Freedom protests. And we've kept in touch over the years. And I remember reaching out to her the day that the US and Israel dropped their first bombs. I knew that the Internet was going to be shut down. And so I got in touch with her immediately and I just wanted to get her first impressions. And she was ecstatic. I mean, she was crying tears of

[A]

joy, ecstatic that her own country was being bombed by other countries.

[C]

That's right. And she noted that too. She said, I know it's absurd that I'm cheering for this war as these bombs are dropping on us, but we have lived under this impression for so long that this just seems like the only way out. You could hear a party in the background with her friends. So she was really hopeful that this was going to be the beginning of a new life for her. But as the days went on, as the weeks went on, you could just sense and you could hear in her voice that loss of hope. I mean, if you recall, President Trump at the beginning, when he announced this war, he made it about regime change. And he talked about how, you know, at a certain point Iranians would be able to get onto the streets and take back their own government. And the goalposts started shifting and, you know, the human rights aspect of this became more and more invisible. And then they started negotiating with the Iranians. And as all of this was happening, this young woman just felt that she was betrayed. And this is, this is a feeling that a lot of. A lot of people that I've spoken to have shared with me. This sense of hopelessness, despair and betrayal. And so a few weeks ago, I got a voice note from her. Hello, Arizu, how are you? I don't know. I'm not okay. I'm not happy. And I lost everything. Feelings that I have. I don't have any dream anymore. I don't have any hopes. I have nothing. Take care of yourself and enjoy your life. Please don't text me again because. And have a good life. So she says there that, you know, if security forces find out that I'm talking to you, a journalist, they won't let me breathe another breath. And it's such a kick to the gut to hear that even now. I've listened to it a, you know, dozen times, and it's. And it's heartbreaking to know that this is a country of a lot of young people and so many of them feel this way. And I will just note, she said, please don't text me anymore. And I think it's important to highlight the fact that there's a high cost associated with speaking out, especially in this moment. Iran is very much, you know, in a state of war. It feels like it's attacked. There is huge suspicion of spying. And so it's in that context that she no longer feels safe. Even as someone who was brave enough to participate in protests all these years, she no longer feels safe to be in communication with a journalist on the outside. The cost is just too much to bear.

[A]

Sounds like a terrible climate to exist in psychologically. And you know, Arzu, in addition to people's moods, whether they support the government or not and having so much uncertainty about the future, there's also the issue of the economy, which even before the war was not in great shape in Iran. And it's unimaginable that it couldn't be hurt much worse since the war. What are you hearing from people about their economic, financial futures and prospects?

[C]

Yeah, the economy is in complete shambles. I mean, the price of milk chicken has gone up by half. There have been mass layoffs. People have lost their jobs in all kinds of fields. Some of this was made worse by the government's decision to cut off the Internet for nearly three months. So that was one of the reasons why there were there was there was mass layoffs. But I know, you know, people describe feeling halfway dead because of this. There's nothing for them to do. There's no purpose to their lives. And they're just kind of stuck in this, this limbo, not knowing what the future holds for them. And you know, Iranians have repeatedly told me, whenever the subject turns to the economy, they tell me that it's crazy that it's like this, that, you know, such a resource rich country hasn't been able to help its people more. I mean, Iranians point to a lot of the Gulf countries that have done really well, that have flourished in recent years in business and tech and finance. And they don't understand why Iran has instead chosen to invest in instability and chaos by way of proxies, for example, while they're suffering inside Iran. So it's really, it's a source of great anger and great pain for Iranians, the economy.

[A]

Time now for our last break. Coming up, how much longer can this conflict continue? Plus, we will open up our reporters notebooks for osint. That's ahead on Sources and Methods from npr. We'll be right back.

[D]

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Planet money, summer school. Grab some friends, pack your bags, and

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[A]

We're back with Arzu Rezvani and Tom Bowman. And, Tom, I want to ask you about another really disturbing pressure point in all of this, which is the concern that the United States may be running low on munitions, on missiles. Our colleague Scott Simon spoke with a retired U.S. marine colonel and senior advisor at the center for Strategic and International Studies. His name is Mark Cancian. And Cancian told Scott that the US Military is running out of some key weapons.

[B]

Well, the US Arsenal is depleted. Some elements are quite depleted.

[C]

There are alternatives, but the alternatives involve greater risk. So it will take several years, one to five, to replace these and then another several years after that to get to where the war planners want to be.

[A]

And that comment comes after the Defense Secretary, Pete Hegseth, went to Capitol Hill last week asking for more money for his budget. So, Tom, tell us about missile depletion. You know, a diminishing arsenal.

[B]

No, Cantian's right. And the key missile here is the Patriot, one of the premier air defense missiles in the world. Cantian's report basically said before the war started, there were like, almost 2,400 Patriot missiles in the stockpile. That has dropped to like between 700 and 800 at this point. I talked with a US official who said, listen, the numbers are classified, but Cansian's report is pretty accurate, very troubling.

[A]

And what are the implications of that?

[B]

You know, I mean, there's no question there's a problem of depleting these Patriot missiles. And there's no question the US Will defend its own air bases over in the Middle east against Iranian missiles. One of the concerns for the Middle east folks in Qatar and Kuwait and other locations, maybe Saudi is, you know, are there enough Patriot missiles to go around to protect their bases? Because the US clearly will protect its own bases with these Patriot missiles. But are there enough to go around in the Middle East? We just don't know.

[A]

Allies.

[B]

Correct. We just don't know the answer to that.

[A]

And China is surely paying attention to this and what should we do?

[B]

No question paying attention.

[A]

Exactly. And of course, Tom, this is coming as the whole world is switching to cheaper, more effective drone warfare. A whole other discussion of this where.

[B]

No, that's absolutely right. You know, President Trump keeps saying, well, we destroyed the Iranian navy, we destroyed the air force. And that's true, clearly weakening them. But they have thousands of these drones which are now being used and also missiles as well because they're shooting missiles at air bases in Jordan. They're using drones again to attack Kuwait and other locations and the ships as well. It's really hard to get rid of all of those drones. Again, thousands of them. Yeah.

[A]

Arzu, this news about missile depletion at the United States has been quite public. Iran certainly knows it. I would think it has to be magic to the Iranian military's ears. Are you hearing anything about Iran's perspective on hearing about our missile depletion?

[C]

I haven't seen much coverage of this in state run media, but it is worth taking a step back just to recognize that, you know, we're now in this space where until now, you know, the US had a clear and obvious upper hand when it came to military power and strength. And where Iran discovered it has now an edge in the Strait of Hormuz. And now there appears to be something of a missile shortage. And it's just remarkable the way this war has just kind of exposed US vulnerabilities on this front.

[A]

And I imagine also has Iran perhaps even less inclined to negotiate if it thinks that the US's ability to attack and even maybe defend itself is depleted.

[C]

That's right. And you know, everyone seems to be buying time. The United States needs to buy some time to figure out what it needs next. Iran to a certain extent is also buying some time. I mean, what war we're fighting now could look very different in a few weeks time.

[A]

And Tom and Arzu, let's all remember that Trump first said this conflict would last four to five weeks, but that the US would have the capacity to go much longer. We are now at five months, entering six months and we're hearing reports of weapons shortages. Tom, you had said earlier that, you know, it's not maybe an imminent problem of running out of weapons. But Tom, how much longer can the US realistically go on with this rate of depletion?

[B]

You know, it's really hard to say, you know, how many missiles does Iran still have that can be fired into Jordan or into other areas, locations? We just don't have a sense of that at this point. And again, they're going to have to come to some sort of agreement. Again, we keep talking about the Strait of Hormuz. That is the key here. They're going to have to find a way to end that problem because the

[A]

world is not functioning well if those tankers are not getting through. The world's too dependent on what those tankers carry. All right. This is something we will obviously be covering in weeks and months and hopefully not years to come. With that, as always, we will end with osint. That is open source intelligence, the not so secret yet telling details we've stumbled across in our reporting. Arzu, what do you have for us this week?

[C]

So within the last month, there have been a couple of cases where Iran's state broadcaster has abruptly cut off speeches or not air portions of interviews by key members of Iran's ruling establishment as they were making the case to continue negotiating with the U.S. the state broadcaster, which is controlled by the supreme leader, rejected accusations of censorship, which is rich. I think Iranian people know a thing or two about censorship. But it also said it has a duty to prevent impressions of duality. That was the word it used, duality and the country's leadership. And I raised this as an example of how Iran gets people in line, even those in power, to try and project a sense of unity.

[A]

That's interesting. Tom, what is your OSINT this week?

[B]

Well, we know since President Trump came back in, his administration has been very restrictive on immigration. And also Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, NPR reported earlier this year has mounted a study of women in ground combat, clearly with an eye to restricting women in ground combat roles. So it's important to note that two of the three soldiers who were killed in that Iranian attack on a US Air base in Jordan were women. Angel, Sara Rampasad and Isabella Gonzalez. They were a ground combat unit. They were both soldiers with an army air defense artillery unit. And also angel was from Trinidad and Tobago. She was an immigrant herself. She was born there and her family said she wanted to join the army at age 18. Her mother said, no, you're too young. She cried. She said, my uncle is in the army. I want to join the Army. So when she turned 21, she was able to join the army. And again, both were killed at that air base in Jordan.

[A]

Thank you for mentioning them and remembering that. I want to mention a case involving a young man who is a US Citizen in Atlanta. He was returning from a trip to the Dominican Republic. And when he came through the Atlanta airport, he got pulled aside by Customs and Border Protection. They demanded his phone and they wanted his passcode. And this man had known he was on the radar of authorities because he was one of the protesters at that big police and fire training complex in Atlanta that's nicknamed Cop City. So he had put on his phone this private operating system that adds extra protections and it allowed him to give the agents a different passcode that intentionally erased the contents of his phone. It's called a wipe code. He's now been charged for obstruction for what prosecutors say was destroying evidence relevant to an ongoing investigation. Now, I had not known about that technology, and to me it raises so many interesting questions. Like if he had wiped his phone before he was pulled aside, would that have been okay versus after the agents asked for it? I'm also wondering if sales of this new private operating system, it's called Graphene os, are about to skyrocket with all this free publicity, although clearly there are a lot of legal things you need to know about using it. So I've been speaking with NPR's Pentagon correspondent Tom Bowman and also NPR reporter Arzu Rezvani. Thank you.

[B]

You're welcome.

[C]

Thanks, Sasha.

[A]

And before we go, a thank you to our NPR listeners. You help support the work of our journalists around the world, many of whom you hear on the podcast each week. With npr, you can hear every episode of this show without sponsor messages. You can unlock access to our complete episode archive. And you can listen sponsor free to a lot of other great NPR podcasts as well. So make sure you're taking full advantage of your benefits. Learn more at plus.npr.org that's it for today's episode. Thanks for listening. I'm Sacha Pfeiffer, in for Mary Louise Kelley, and she is back next week with another episode of Sources and Methods from npr.

[D]

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[B]

Looks at big problems.

[C]

Nobody would rationally want nuclear war. That's not quite correct.

[A]

How can we add friction? Put the launch codes inside somebody's chest cavity and you have to kill them to get them out or we doomed. Solving humanity's biggest threats, part of the NPR Network. Listen wherever you get your podcasts.