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What allows Olympic figure skaters to land a jump on ice that most of us couldn't land on solid ground? And how do snowboarders defy gravity? Maybe even better than Cynthia Erivo. Come learn the science that allows Olympic athletes to push the boundaries of what the human body is capable of with shortwave. Listen in the NPR app or wherever you get your podcasts.
Rob Schmitz
There definitely is this sense that the US Is leaving Europe for Europe to defend.
Mary Louise Kelly
The world has entered a period of wrecking ball politics. So opens the Munich security report, released as the world's security establishment gathers here in Germany. One year after Vice President Vance came out swinging against European leaders and a month after President Trump threatened military force against a NATO ally. Where will the wrecking ball swing next? This is Sources and Methods from npr. I'm Mary Louise Kelly. Each Thursday, we discuss some of the week's biggest NATSEC news. And this week we're doing that in a place where many people at the center of that news happen to be, as you may be able to hear behind me. We are recording this on the ground in the middle of the Munich security conference. Call it the Davos of Defense. VIPs from all over are here. They're trading notes. They're drinking coffee. Coffee, talking through what security looks like in an increasingly unpredictable world. Well, as always, I AM joined by NPR's best and brightest this week, NPR Berlin correspondent Rob Schmitz here sitting right next to me in Munich.
Rob Schmitz
How nice to see you in the flesh. Really good to be here.
Mary Louise Kelly
It's great to have you with us on sources and Methods and back in Washington. I wish you were here for the party, Greg. National security correspondent Greg Myre. Hey there.
Greg Myre
Hi. Hi. Feeling a little lonely, but good to see you guys.
Mary Louise Kelly
We raise our coffee mugs to you. Okay. So, Rob, all kind of weighty topics on this agenda. Also, little bit of a whiff of a singles barb, by which I mean everybody's checking each other out. Like, who are you? Are you the prime minister of a country? Are you part of the Estonian delegation? And also, everybody's in dark suits. Pretty much. But we all are wearing I am wearing a name badge on a blue string, which means something really different from a yellow string.
Rob Schmitz
It's status. You've got status.
Mary Louise Kelly
I'm big at that. Yeah, but not as big as if I had a sticker on it and a blue and white ribbon.
Rob Schmitz
Apparently, you can always be better, right? I've got the lowest status badge there is, and I've discovered this over and over today trying to get through security.
Mary Louise Kelly
You need an escort. Like to go to the men's room.
Rob Schmitz
Yeah, I get stopped everywhere.
Mary Louise Kelly
One other just little piece of color to share for people. I was walking around this facility yesterday with a woman named Constanze Stelzenmiller. She has been coming to this conference for, as she said to me, more years than I care to recall. First, as a German journalist, she now runs the center on the US And Europe at the Brookings Institution. So I asked her, how do you describe the Munich security conference? Just someone who's never been there, might never go. And here's what she told me. Think of a 10 ring circus and a Middle Eastern bazaar surrounded by snipers on the rooftops. Rob, does that sound about right? 10 ring circus in a Middle Eastern bazaar with snipers.
Rob Schmitz
At least you nailed it. Yeah. Yeah. It is a zoo.
Mary Louise Kelly
So it's a zoo. The vibe this year, and I'm a rookie, I've never been before, but the vibe seems to be a lot of people on edge. And so I want to dive in there because I think if we briefly go back to last year, President Trump has just returned to the White House, he's just kicked off his second administration, and his vice president, J.D. vance, rolls into Munich and unleashes a speech that I'm told felt like a full frontal attack on Europe and on European leaders.
J.D. Vance
I hope that's not the last bit of applause that I get, but.
Rob Schmitz
So I was there last year when Vance delivered this speech, and I think he really caught everyone unaware. He wasn't there to talk about security, really. He wasn't there to talk about military force or anything. Ukraine, any of these things that are happening here on European soil and which.
Mary Louise Kelly
Were formally on the agenda.
Rob Schmitz
Absolutely. Instead, what he wanted to talk about was, quote, unquote, the threat from within.
J.D. Vance
The retreat of Europe from some of its most fundamental values, values shared with the United States of America.
Rob Schmitz
He was basically making the point that European leaders assembled there in the room were not listening to their own voters. And thus a lot of the parties, mostly far right parties in Europe, were not invited to the same table.
Mary Louise Kelly
European political party parties were not invited to join the party.
Rob Schmitz
Right. And we're talking about parties like the National Rally in France, we're talking about the alternative for Deutschland, AfD in Germany, which enjoys 25% support inside of Germany. These types of parties. Let's talk about the AfD. They were not invited to the conference. And he made a point to sort of lecture those attending, hey, you know, these party, these political Parties are getting a lot of votes. You need to be listening to the people who vote for these parties. And that is what you're scared of, is you cannot run away from your own voters.
J.D. Vance
If you're running in fear of your own voters, there is nothing America can do for you. Nor for that matter, is there anything that you can do for the American people who elected me and elected President Trump.
Mary Louise Kelly
I have more questions for you on the AfD here in Germany because they will be here this year and we're going to get to that. But stay with another key message that J.D. vance came to deliver is, hey, Europe, you can't count on the US to carry your water anymore on defense issues.
J.D. Vance
You hear this term burden sharing, but we think it's an important part of being in a shared alliance together that the Europeans step up while America focuses on areas of the world that are in great danger.
Mary Louise Kelly
How did that go down with the European leaders who were assembled in the room?
Rob Schmitz
I think that was the message that many European leaders were actually prepared for because they've been hearing this for decades.
Podcast Narrator
Right.
Rob Schmitz
This goes back to President Barack Obama. But there's been this, especially since the first Trump term, the sense that Europe really needs to pony up more money for their own defense. They need to be spending more than 2% of their GDP on defense.
Mary Louise Kelly
And so that piece of the message, hard talk, but not surprising, shocking.
Rob Schmitz
I don't think that was surprising. I think European leaders were more shocked by the values tone of Vance's speech last year.
Mary Louise Kelly
Greg, hop in here. We are told that the headliner for the Trump administration this year here will be Secretary of State Marco Rubio, America's top diplomat. He's a diplomat. He has a reputation for being more diplomatic than, say, J.D. vance. But are we expecting a radically different message from the US at this conference this year?
Greg Myre
You would expect Marco Rubio to be a little softer around the edges, that he might be able to deliver a similar message. He's not going to go rogue and go in an entirely different direction, but try to make it sound more palatable. But I think the message is the same. The US Is asking Europe to do more. And literally today NATO defense ministers are meeting not too far from you guys in Brussels. And Pete Hegseth, the Pentagon chief, is not there. Did send their number three person, the policy chief, Elbridge Colby, and he called for a, quote, partnership rather than dependency. So again, the message is the same and it's maybe not as sharp edged as it was last year with J.D. vance, but I certainly think that it's moving in the same direction.
Mary Louise Kelly
So this has been heard as a wake up call by the Europeans. What else are they doing? As they say, okay, we're going to step up, we can stand on our own feet when it comes to our defense and it may need to come to that. On everything else.
Rob Schmitz
Yeah, I mean, I think what's interesting too, I mean, Greg was mentioning NATO. I mean, in the past week, you know, NATO has bases across Europe and a couple of them really important bases that are responsible for responding to an emergency. The US they're no longer going to be leading those bases. And those bases are in Norfolk and in Naples, Italy.
Mary Louise Kelly
In Italy.
Rob Schmitz
And the leadership of those bases will be handed over to the Europeans over several years. But there definitely is this sense that the US Is leaving Europe for Europe to defend and some countries are doing a better job of that than others. I would say that the Baltics as well as Poland, Poland I cover quite a bit. It's now spending around 5% of its GDP. That's more than most NATO countries. Germany, I would say it's almost like this huge ship that needed to right itself. And it took a long time for it to turn around because for the last four years, ever since the war in Ukraine began, Germany said it was going to have a Zeitenwende. It was going to have this turning point that it would suddenly spend way more on its military. But it's taking that long for people to finally start to notice these things. And you're noticing it in industry. You're seeing a lot of these former auto parts manufacturers now making drones. They're making weaponry.
Mary Louise Kelly
Fascinating.
Rob Schmitz
Yeah. And so you're seeing this on a.
Mary Louise Kelly
They were making Volkswagen parts and now they're making drones.
Rob Schmitz
That's right.
Mary Louise Kelly
After a quick break, Germany's far right will be among the delegations prowling the halls of the Bayer Asher Hof Hotel here at the Munich Security Conference. We'll get to that ahead on Sources and Methods from npr. On NPR's wild card podcast, Oscar nominee.
Rob Schmitz
Wagner Mora on keeping his values on his path to success.
Mary Louise Kelly
There were moments where I was like, oh, I really need that money, man.
Greg Myre
Right.
Mary Louise Kelly
You know, But I'm like, I can't do this. I can't do that because otherwise I'll be miserable.
Rob Schmitz
Watch or listen to that wildcard conversation.
Podcast Narrator
On the NPR app or on YouTube. PRWildcard this year on Throughline, NPR's history podcast. For generations, an American quest has shaped the world. Life, liberty, the pursuit of happiness. Now 250 years in. What is that pursuit really about? Join us each Tuesday for an essential new series, america in Pursuit, from Throughline on the NPR app or wherever you get podcasts.
Mary Louise Kelly
Rob schmidt, go back. J.D. vance last year, his speech, one of the arguments, as we mentioned, was his view that European countries are being anti democratic by locking right wing far right parties like the AfD here in Germany out of politics, keeping them from coming to the table. The AFD was not in the room to hear that speech because they weren't invited to this conference last year. This year they are. Why?
Rob Schmitz
I think part of the reason is that the management of the conference changed.
Mary Louise Kelly
What else, though, I mean, I wonder, is it partly the AFT is getting harder to keep from the table as they become a growing force and bigger presence in.
Rob Schmitz
That's the second reason. Yeah. And I think that Vance's speech, even though it shocked many Europeans at the time, this is a year ago. I think in the time span since last year, I think people have started to think more and more about what he said. And the AfD, I mean, we need to talk about this political party in Germany. It is a rising party. And I'm talking, you know, most mainstream parties in Germany are losing voters. The AFD is actually gaining voters and they're now in second place. When you look at any poll in Germany, they're right behind the cdu, which is the center right party, that is the party of Chancellor Friedrich Manz.
Mary Louise Kelly
What do they actually stand for? I mean, I think to the extent that this gets play in the American press, it's focusing on some AFD members who seem very nostalgic for Germany's past and particularly the Nazi piece of Germany's past. What's their policy agenda?
Rob Schmitz
Well, I think it can be summed up in four make Germany great again. And this is a familiar slogan that's not easy.
Mary Louise Kelly
It doesn't roll off the top of.
Rob Schmitz
The tongue because of the history of Germany. And yes, what you mentioned about the harkening back to the Nazi era, there are several members of the AFD that have gotten in trouble for doing just that. But right now the AFD seems to be changing its tone a little as its poll numbers have gotten much higher. And I feel like I'm seeing a party that is starting to realize that they have power, they actually have support and they're putting their big boy pants on and they're finally starting to sound more like a mainstream party. And I think what we're hearing less of are these fringe sort of things that they used to Say that hearken back to, you know, World War II era Germany. And what we're hearing more of now is how do we revive Germany's industry? How do we become a country that we can be proud of again? Obviously they have anti EU tendencies, meaning that they see the EU as a problem and they would like more sovereignty for Germany within the eu. This all though boils down in many ways to what started with AfD and what drew so many supporters to them. And that's migration. Immigration.
Mary Louise Kelly
Yeah.
Rob Schmitz
And out of control migration to Germany everywhere. Absolutely. And I think it's the lack of success of many different governments of mainstream parties that has turned people to the AfD because the AfD has constantly talked about this.
Mary Louise Kelly
Okay, so make Germany great again. How does it align or not with MAGA in America or, you know, I mean, I'm thinking more broadly about parties on this, political parties on this side of the pond. Nigel Farages, reform movement in the U.K. i mean, they are seen, I don't mean to oversimplify, but a little bit as maybe European cousins in terms of a big picture worldview of the MAGA movement in America. Are they, I mean, are they aligned on. On much?
Rob Schmitz
I think they're aligned on quite a bit. I think the core principles they're absolutely aligned on, meaning they, they are looking to improve their country status, they're looking to try and find fight out of control migration. But you're starting to see some sort of breakaway from the just blind kind of devotion to what Trump stands for.
Mary Louise Kelly
Greenland. Greenland has been a dividing issue. The far right here was not on board with President Trump's designs on Greenland. Am I right?
Rob Schmitz
That's correct. And the reason they weren't is because it's become a sovereignty issue. Right. Suddenly you have an American president that's threatening to take over a European territory. And then also another issue that came up within the last couple of months was the US Operation in Venezuela. You just went into a country and removed their dictator, but removed their leader. And for them, I think that is a big concern because sovereignty, I think in many ways is one of the most important principles that they stand for.
Mary Louise Kelly
Quick, last thing on this conversation about, you know, the issues swirling here in Munich and at the security conference, it's not lost on me. We have been talking for a little while now on a European security focused conference. We have not mentioned Ukraine. I mean, is all of these other forces swirling and the whole US Europe rupture or whatever we want to call it, has that pushed Ukraine off the radar a little bit.
Greg Myre
Yeah, it does seem that way. You know, this month, this four years ago since the full scale Russian invasion, that war is grinding on still at a very intense pace. There's no resolution in sight. I mean, there are talks going on, but it doesn't seem like they're on the verge of resolving this. We do see Europe stepping up in some ways. In fact, today Britain announced they were going to provide more air defenses, a thousand air defense missiles to Ukraine. Germany has announced it's ramping up its artillery production and some percentage of that will be headed to Ukraine. So it is an issue, but it just has lost its sense of urgency. Certainly that's absolutely true in this country and it seems so in Europe as well, where, yes, people are talking about it, but there's not a sense of we've got to step up our contributions to replace the weapons that the US Is no longer giving to Ukraine.
Mary Louise Kelly
We're going to take a short break. When we come back, the story behind the unusual appearance of the director of national intelligence in Fulton County, Georgia. That's ahead on Sources and Methods from npr.
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Mary Louise Kelly
We're back. Before we go to osint, and I know you want to go to osint, but I want to touch on one more national security story that is percolating this. And it is the question of what President Trump's director of national intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard, what Tulsi Gabbard was doing in Fulton County, Georgia. FBI agents were there. They were executing a search warrant for ballots from the 2020 election. Yes, 2020. So what if we learned about why Gabbard was there, too, Greg?
Greg Myre
Yeah. Well, so this was back on January 28th when the FBI went there and then some photos emerged in and it showed the director of national intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard, standing by in a baseball cap watching this. And that was very strange to see the top US Intelligence official at a domestic FBI operation. It provoked a lot of speculation that perhaps he was just trying to get into or back into the good graces of President Trump, who has talks nonstop, it seems, about the 2020 election. And then The New York Times did have a story that did seem to offer an explanat. It said Gabbard was giving a briefing on Syria in the Situation Room at the White House when Trump abruptly intervened and asked her about the 2020 election. Not really seeing the connection there between those two developments. But then days later, she does turn up in Fulton County.
Mary Louise Kelly
But can I jump in and just ask the Captain obvious question? I will call it the job of Director of National Intelligence was created after 911 to oversee and coordinate. What are we up to? 18 US spy agencies. 18 US spy agencies, mostly outward, facing foreign intelligence. Her job is not domestic law enforcement. I mean, it just feels worth pausing and saying that out loud.
Greg Myre
Absolutely, absolutely. And Virginia's Democratic Senator Mark Warner had a very pithy way of saying that. He said she is foreign intelligence, not domestic criminal investigations. And that has certainly been the nature of the job. I will offer just a visual a little bit to help understand that at the ODNI building, the back part of that does have the National Counterterrorism center in it. And when you go in there, there's a big open room with sort of circular desks and big screens on the wall. And at those desks, you might see somebody from the CIA, from the nsa, from the FBI, and even from the police department, New York and Los Angeles police departments. So there is this element where she oversees everything and does. There is, but it's more in the sense of coordinating information so that the CIA sees something overseas and there's a connection to something in the US that make sure they're talking to each other and that gets coordinated.
Mary Louise Kelly
You're giving us such a great visual of that. I've been in the National Counterterrorism center for interviews. I remember walking in and watching them taking us down. Like everybody had to clear their screen for me to walk in, you know, take everybody in. There's got a security clearance. They don't want you inadvertently seeing somebody, you know, what they're typing and looking over their shoulder. It's quite a scene and quite a visual on the. The many different constituencies that the DNI does oversee. All right, with that, let's hear your OSINT open source intelligence. I want to hear a detail or two that caught your eyes this week. Greg Myre, kick us off.
Greg Myre
Yeah, I want to talk about the apparent snafu in El Paso, Texas. The OSINT part of this is that the Federal Aviation Administration announced late Tuesday it was closing airspace in and around el Paso for 10 days. And that's very unusual. And Pretty extreme. And then it was lifted just hours later on Wednesday morning. But the backstory is starting to emerge. And according to sources who've spoken to the NPR and other news organizations, the Pentagon gave a high energy laser weapon to Customs and Border Protection. And they used that weapon earlier this week to shoot down what they thought was a drug cartel drone coming in from Mexico. And those drones are increasingly common. But the sources are saying this was not a drug cartel drone. It was a party balloon made of Mylar. We don't know who was celebrating or why or which side of the border they were having this party on. But point is, it didn't pose a threat. And so now we're in the finger pointing stage. Some are pointing their finger at the Pentagon for giving this weapon to border protection. Some are pointing at border protection for using a weapon and not bringing everybody into the loop. Others are angry at the FAA for announcing a big airspace shutdown. So stay tuned. We'll keep an eye on this.
Rob Schmitz
Wait, Greg, I have to ask, did the laser hit the party balloon?
Greg Myre
Well, you know, all we know officially is that the transportation Secretary said yesterday that the threat was neutralized, so it was shot down. But he again is already over describing it as a drug cartel drone. So it was apparently hit. The question is, what did they hit?
Mary Louise Kelly
There's a lesson here, which is you do not need a Mylar party balloon. A cake will do, people just stick with the cake and candles. Rob, how about you? Yor Osin?
Rob Schmitz
Okay, so I cover Hungary as part of my beat. And Hungary has a very important national parliamentary election coming up in April, April 12th. And usually a man named Viktor Orban wins this election. He's done it many times in the past. This year, we're finally, we're starting to see some serious opposition to Viktor Orban's rule from a man named Peter Magyar. And Magyar comes from actually Orban's Fidesz party. So he's actually been inside of that party. He's young. He's actually here at the conference this year and this week on Tuesday, Magyar posted on X that he warned his followers and he warned everyone else that he thought that the Orban government was going to release a sex tape of him and his former girlfriend when he was actually dating his girlfriend that had been filmed secretly inside of a hotel room.
Mary Louise Kelly
Oh, boy.
Rob Schmitz
Yes. And he warned everyone. He said, hey, this is, this is apparently going to happen. He had been informed by journalists that this was going to happen because these journalists had been informed by the government. And he basically Just said, look, yes, I'm a 45 year old man, I have a sex life with an adult partner. And if basically the message being, if this is the best you can do, you know, there's nothing else you can get on me.
Mary Louise Kelly
That sounds like quite the election. I hope you're going to go cover it first.
Rob Schmitz
I will be. I will be heading there.
Mary Louise Kelly
All right, I will go last and I'm going to circle us back here to the Munich Security Conference, which I checked, this is the 62nd year of this conference. So as you can imagine, the role for women in this space has changed a lot in those decades. I mean, all around us right now you can see women walking past and they are foreign ministers and heads of state and doing every job you can do. But there is a long, deep history of mansplaining at this conference and do not take my word for it. We were talking about Constanze Stelzenbuller earlier. She's the one with the great quote about the Middle Eastern bazaar and the snipers and the ten ring circus. She told me two things. One, that there is a point where a number of women get so fed up, she said this point usually comes around about Saturday after afternoon of the conference that they leave. And Rob, I don't know if you can see, but like diagonally across the square we're looking out at is a very fancy department store.
Rob Schmitz
Yep.
Mary Louise Kelly
Constanze says very senior diplomats who we will not name here but just say senior, have been known to say, I've had it, get me out of here. They go, they buy something nice, they feel better, they come back. This is raid shopping. Raid shopping at the Munich Security Conference. The other thing she told me, and this is a little more serious, Constanze helped to found what is called the women's breakfast. This was like 14 years ago. And it was, let's have a serious forum where women can get together and network. And they are hosting that. That will be Saturday morning. I'm gonna go. The kind of featured headliner of the event this year is the foreign minister of Greenland, who is a woman and who I'm going to go out on a limb and guest has had to put up with a little bit of mansplaining this year. And she's going to be there and women are turning out and forced to hear what's on her mind and do some networking. Wow. And no, you're not invited, Rob Schmitz. So don't ask.
Rob Schmitz
I'll be shopping.
Mary Louise Kelly
That's NPR's Rob Schmitz. He is based in Berlin. Today here with me in uniform, Don Cushion, feeling done. And NPR national security correspondent Greg Myrie in Washington. Thank you, Greg.
Greg Myre
Sure thing, Mary Louise.
Mary Louise Kelly
Before we go, a thank you to our NPR listeners. You help support the work of our journalists around the world, many of whom you hear on the podcast here each week with npr. You can hear every episode of this show without sponsor messages and unlock access to our complete episode archive. It is awesome. You can also listen sponsor free to a lot of other great NPR podcasts as well. So make sure you're taking full advantage of your benefits. You can learn more at plus.NPR.org I'm Mary Louise Kelly on the ground here in Munich as diplomats and spies and heads of state gather for the annual Munich Security Conference. Thanks for being with us. We're back next week with another episode episode of Sources and Methods from NPR.
Episode: View from Munich / Europe’s far-right / DNI in Georgia
Date: February 12, 2026
Host: Mary Louise Kelly
Guests: Rob Schmitz (Berlin correspondent), Greg Myre (NatSec correspondent)
Setting: On the ground at the Munich Security Conference (MSC), Germany
This episode dives into the atmosphere and key debates at the Munich Security Conference, against the backdrop of a shifting US-Europe security relationship, the rising prominence of Europe’s far-right, and a striking appearance by the US Director of National Intelligence in a domestic law enforcement scenario. With correspondents reporting live from Munich and Washington, listeners get a rare insider’s look at the intersection of policy, power, and personality shaping not just Europe—but global security.
Quote:
“Think of a ten ring circus and a Middle Eastern bazaar surrounded by snipers on the rooftops.”
– Constanze Stelzenmiller (via Kelly), [03:06]
Quote:
“If you’re running in fear of your own voters, there is nothing America can do for you.”
– J.D. Vance (as paraphrased/quoted), [05:38]
Quote:
“There definitely is this sense that the US is leaving Europe for Europe to defend.”
– Rob Schmitz, [00:26 & 08:50]
Quote:
“Most mainstream parties in Germany are losing voters. The AfD is actually gaining voters and they're now in second place… they're putting their big boy pants on and finally starting to sound more like a mainstream party.”
– Rob Schmitz, [12:36]
- The party remains anti-EU and its original base centers on anti-immigration sentiment.
- When it comes to global alliances, the AfD’s nationalism is sometimes at odds with the American right—highlighted by their resistance to Trump’s Greenland ambitions, which they viewed as European sovereignty concerns ([15:35]).
Quote:
“It just has lost its sense of urgency… People are talking about it, but there’s not a sense of ‘we’ve got to step up.’”
– Greg Myre, [16:34]
Quote:
“She is foreign intelligence, not domestic criminal investigations.”
– Senator Mark Warner (via Greg Myre), [20:16]
- Kelly adds color on the symbolic, cross-agency “big room” at ODNI, where multiple agencies share information, but clarifies this does not cover domestic criminal probes ([21:23]).
Quote:
“The sources are saying this was not a drug cartel drone. It was a party balloon made of Mylar.”
– Greg Myre, [22:21]
Rob Schmitz: Hungarian Election Dirty Tricks
Mary Louise Kelly: Women Networking at the MSC
Vivid Descriptions
Humor & Humanity
“I've got the lowest status badge there is, and I've discovered this over and over today trying to get through security.”
– Rob Schmitz, [02:33]
This episode lays bare the anxieties and contradictions shaping Europe’s security posture, the emboldenment of far-right parties, and the confusion sowed when intelligence and politics collide. Through a blend of sharp analysis, first-person color, and newsroom banter, listeners emerge with a deeper understanding of how the big security stories playing out in Munich and beyond matter—globally and at home.
End of Summary