Mary Louise Kelly (2:44)

And then what about and let me just do the quick time note here. Greg, we're talking to you at 7:30 in the evening there in Tel Aviv.

Greg Myre (2:52)

That's correct.

Mary Louise Kelly (2:53)

Okay, so it's about half past 12 here in Washington on Thursday. And I'm telling people listening this in case events have shifted by the time you are listening. I wanted to ask about a piece of reporting I heard from one of our colleagues, Carrie Kahn. She's there with you in Israel. I know she was out in Hostage Square talking to people for their reaction this morning. And she talked to somebody who referenced that earlier ceasefire that didn't hold, who said the difference this time is the Arab nations, that the Arab street is on board this time. Like, what's the reaction across the region?

Greg Myre (3:28)

Yeah, we really did see that support. Egypt and Qatar, who work closely with Hamas. They certainly put a lot of pressure on Europe, also supported this. And I think Trump put more pressure on people. I mean, Trump inherited a ceasefire In January, on January 20, to be specific, as he came into office, he was not putting as much pressure on the Israelis back then. That cease fire broke down after about six weeks or so. He brought Netanyahu to Washington, got him to publicly endorse this. Then the squeeze was put on Hamas. So there was a lot of pressure all around. This was a much larger international effort. And that's why there's much more optimism this time that this not only the ceasefire could last, but it will bring an end to the war after two horrible years.

Mary Louise Kelly (4:21)

We mentioned many, many bridges still to cross. Talk to me about the timing, Greg, the most pressing details to sort and in what order.

Greg Myre (4:30)

Yeah, Mary Louise, we've got a lot of balls in the air here. The Israeli cabinet is supposed to approve this. Then the ceasefire is supposed to formally take effect. So perhaps late on Thursday night. Then the clock starts ticking. Israel will have 24 hours to begin pulling back its troops in Gaza. It still controls a large part of the territory. This would be the initial pullback of several that are planned. And it would still control about half of Gaza. Now, over the weekend, Hamas. Then the clock will be ticking for Hamas to gather the hostages, 20 of them believed to be alive, 28 of them believed to be dead, and the hostages will be freed. Now, we're hearing anytime from Sunday, Monday or Tuesday. President Trump has come out and said Monday or Tuesday looks more likely. While all this is going on, hundreds of aid trucks are supposed to start rolling into Gaza providing critical aid, and there just hasn't been enough of it for the past two years. So all of these things are going to be happening simultaneously, different directions. It's going to be a very Intense few days coming up, such a weekend.

Mary Louise Kelly (5:41)

You'Re about to be covering there. Okay, so a bunch of follow up questions. One, what happens to the big ground offensive, Israel's big ground offensive in Gaza City, does that just go away under this deal?

Greg Myre (5:52)

Yeah, that's right. As Israel makes its initial pullback in the first 24 hours, a big part of that would be coming out of Gaza City, the biggest city in Gaza in a very complicated place. You don't want troops and civilians side by side there. And at least right.

Tom Bowman (6:10)

Here's another question. I'm not sure you can answer it. Okay, I'm Hamas and I'm in Gaza. I release all the hostages dead and alive. What happens to me? Do I melt into the population?

Mary Louise Kelly (6:20)

Do you feel all your leverage?

Tom Bowman (6:21)

Right. Do I get safe passage out? What happens? Do we know?

Greg Myre (6:24)

Yeah, I think the most likely answer is Hamas will remain in some form. They've been in Gaza for 40 years. They've ruled that territory for the past two decades, nearly. They're not going to just disappear. Now. Trump's plan calls for them to disarm and to give up any future role in governing Gaza. But Habas has not said that publicly. So here we can already see the possibility of a confrontation where Israel says, you have to give up your arms. Well, there's nobody in those Palestinian cities to take away their arms. They're saying that Hamas won't govern. Well, who's gonna tell them not to? There's no other force there except the Israelis.

Mary Louise Kelly (7:08)

I mean, that's the other million dollar question. Who does run Gaza?

Greg Myre (7:11)

So. So it's in Trump's plan, but it really reads like something that was just written down by a committee. It says that a committee of Palestinian technocrats will take over temporarily. Well, who are these people? We don't know. And then atop that committee, Trump and the former British Prime Minister Tony Blair are supposed to be part of something called a board of peace that will sort of oversee this. It's hard to see how that will happen if you still have armed Hamas fighters in the Palestinian cities. So you begin to see all the potential problems. I think there's probably a very good chance the ceasefire will hold initially. Hostages will be released, Palestinian prisoners will be returned. Then you start getting into these more complicated political questions, and you guys are absolutely tapping into what could be the big problem.

Tom Bowman (8:03)

Wow.

Mary Louise Kelly (8:04)

You know, Greg, I'm sitting listening to you talk, and I'm remembering standing in a bar next to you in Tel Aviv. This was in the weeks right after the October 7th attack. To be clear, we'd been working hard all day. We'd hit our deadline. We were trying to find a place to get a late dinner. And we're sitting outside on the sidewalk and air raid sirens started going off. And so everybody jumps up and runs into this bar while we wait for the Iron Dome to shoot it all down. Just amazing talking to you. And there you are back on a very, very different day for Israel and for the Middle East.

Greg Myre (8:36)

Yes, absolutely. And just the change in the region, this is going to play out for years, Mary Louise. You know, Israel has dealt with really serious blows to all its main threats, and yet the country has become so much more isolated internationally because of the way it conducted this war in Gaza, such immense suffering by The Palestinian civilians, 67,000 killed, most of them women and children. So there's been this real contradiction between Israel strengthening its security position and yet becoming more isolated and ostracized by the world.

Mary Louise Kelly (9:14)

That is Greg Myhre in Tel Aviv and Tom Bowman covering the Pentagon from here in Washington. We're going to take a short break. Greg, you sit tight because when we come back, I'm going to talk to Tom about what is happening with the National Guard in Chicago and beyond. This is Sources and Methods from npr. Every week we bring you as much insight as we can about events unfolding in America's centers of power and global impact. It takes a lot of work, late nights across time zones, planning, sourcing, checking, taping, editing. Join our supporters who make that work possible with npr. You'll get all episodes sponsor free and unlock access to our archives. Sign up@plus.NPR.org the federal government has shut down.

Tom Bowman (10:05)

What are lawmakers arguing about and what.

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Does it mean for you? The NPR Politics Podcast is here to.

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Make sense of it all, giving you updates and news every day to keep you informed. The NPR Politics Podcast Listen every day.

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Tom Bowman (10:44)

On the Throughline podcast from npr, Immigration.

Greg Myre (10:48)

Enforcement might be more visible now, but this moment didn't begin with President Trump's.

Tom Bowman (10:53)

Second inauguration or even his first, a series from Throughline about how immigration became political and a cash cow.

Greg Myre (11:03)

Listen to Throughline in the NPR app.

Tom Bowman (11:06)

Or wherever you get Your pocket.

Mary Louise Kelly (11:09)

So if you look at President Trump's feed on his Truth Social site, you would actually have to scroll down to see the news of that Gaza peace breakthrough, because the top.

Greg Myre (11:21)

Chicago's a mess.

Mary Louise Kelly (11:22)

You have an incompetent mayor, grossly incompetent. The one pinned to the president's feed is, I guess the best way to describe it is a hype video for Trump's federal action in Chicago.

Greg Myre (11:34)

We're not going to allow this kind of savagery to destroy our society anymore.

Tom Bowman (11:38)

We're stopping it one by one.

Mary Louise Kelly (11:42)

Now, so far, this has been a high profile immigration enforcement operation. It has now turned the corner and become a National Guard deployment. Trump wants to deploy federalized Guard troops inside Chicago also to Portland, Oregon, over the objections of the governors of those states. Both those moves are being challenged in court. In fact, today, as we are taping, lawyers for the federal government and for the states are squaring off in court. So we're gonna keep our eyes on that. Tom, start just with the basics. Where are troops right now? As of we're coming up just past 1 o', clock, 1pm Eastern on Thursday.

Tom Bowman (12:22)

Well, let's start with Oregon. There are 200 National Guard troops from Oregon that they want to deploy, that Trump has basically taken control of them from the governor. Another 200 from California are in Oregon waiting to deploy.

Mary Louise Kelly (12:37)

Already there.

Tom Bowman (12:38)

Correct. And a judge, a federal judge has blocked that, said you can't deploy them. There's no reason for it. And an appellate court also sided with that federal court judge. So in Oregon, no one's going anywhere.

Mary Louise Kelly (12:51)

All kinds of legal wrangling. What about Chicago?

Tom Bowman (12:53)

Chicago's different. Now. In Chicago, the Texas National Guard, two dozen of them, I'm told, are at the ICE facility protecting that facility outside Chicago. So a couple of dozen. There are 200 Texas National Guard troops in Illinois, so they could also be deploying, too, but not yet. In addition, there are 300 Illinois National Guard troops that are still doing prep work, you know, training in crowd control, doing medical checkups. They could be on the streets maybe by the 15th.

Mary Louise Kelly (13:30)

When you say there are some now protecting an ICE facility outside Chicago, what does that mean? What are they doing?

Tom Bowman (13:38)

Just basically standing by the facility, you know, protecting it from. There are some protests here and some of them have been violent. Federal agents shot this woman they said had a weapon. She drove herself to the hospital, was taken to custody by the FBI. But the protests at this point tend to be pretty small in scope. But however, the governor, J.B. pritzker, said, Listen, if you're gonna send Guard troops to the streets, you're gonna inflame the situation. It can only get worse. And that will. You'll probably see more and more protesters showing up at that ICE facility as well.

Mary Louise Kelly (14:13)

You mentioned protests in Illinois. Police forces in a big city like Chicago are trained to manage protests. They're trained in how to keep things from escalating. The National Guard, they're not law enforcement. They are military. Are the rules of engagement clear?

Tom Bowman (14:30)

If things do escalate well, you can always defend yourself. That's number one. But in this instance, they're not going to do any. Make any arrests. Again, they're going to be protecting a facility, going out with ICE agents and maybe having a cord on around a certain neighborhood, let's say, or just protecting those ICE agents as they do their job. The good news, I think, is the Illinois Guard troops that could be deployed, they're MPs, so they're trained in law enforcement. So that is a little better. Texas Guard, I'm not too sure about. But again, no one's going to be performing law enforcement duties. They're just there to protect both facilities and the ICE agents doing their jobs.

Mary Louise Kelly (15:12)

Okay, I want to ask about duration. You got your hands on a memo that Defense Secretary Hegseth wrote. This was to do with Illinois, actually. Two memos, National Guard, two memoirs.

Tom Bowman (15:22)

I got another one last night.

Mary Louise Kelly (15:24)

Can you share how you got them.

Tom Bowman (15:26)

From sources and methods? Working my contacts.

Mary Louise Kelly (15:31)

Well played.

Tom Bowman (15:32)

I try all the time to find more contacts, as you know. And you've done this business a long time. Every day I'm looking for new sources, and this particular person got me those memos. Now, they're not classified, but what it says in the memo is the Illinois situation. Hexa sent it to the governor through the National Guard in Illinois, basically saying under Title 10, Section 12406, the President is taking control of your Guard. It's called federalizing the Guard. And you can do that for three reasons, Mary Louise. One, if there's a foreign invasion, number two, if there's a rebellion, and number three, listen, if the local law enforcement can't control the situation, or if you're not following the law, if you're violating the law as a mayor or a governor. Now, this has happened in the past during the civil rights era. Eisenhower, Kennedy and Johnson all federalized the Guard in the south, in Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi, in Arkansas as well, with Eisenhower to basically make sure African American kids could go to school because the states were violating that. And also in 1992 with the Rodney King riots. The Governor, Pete Wilson, at that time, he mobilized 2,000 Guard, but he told President George H.W. bush, Listen, I need a lot more help. So the president then H.W. bush, he invoked the Insurrection act act, which is a step higher, and he took control of the Guard. Also sent in active duty troops, including Marines from Camp Pendleton.

Mary Louise Kelly (17:10)

Yeah, that was one other thing I wanted to ask you, which was as we're looking at precedent, you know, there was what happened in Los Angeles earlier this year. National Guard was sent in, also active duty Marines. Just for the record, we're not seeing a repeat. The President isn't trying to do that this time.

Tom Bowman (17:25)

At this point, we're not seeing that. And again, the Marines that were sent to la, they were protecting federal facilities. They were just standing there and they had no trouble at all. Now, here's the thing. If you invoke the Insurrection act, and remember I said the Guard will have no law enforcement duties. If you invoke the Insurrection act, the President can take control of the Guard, send in active duty troops and both of them can perform law enforcement duties. Now he's threatened to do that. So we'll see what happens down the road.

Mary Louise Kelly (17:55)

Tom, as you, as you work your sources, as you talk to members of the military, both active duty and retired, how are they feeling about all this?

Tom Bowman (18:05)

Just really troubled. Especially when what Trump said down at Quantico, Virginia, at the Marine base about using American cities as training grounds.

Mary Louise Kelly (18:14)

This was when they had the big summit of the generals and the admirals.

Tom Bowman (18:17)

Hundreds from all around the world. And people I talk would say they didn't sign up for the military to go after their own citizens, to use American cities as training grounds. A lot of these people I know, many of them have a lot of combat experience in Iraq and Afghanistan. They signed up to go after America's enemies. They don't see American citizens as enemies. They were really, really troubled by this.

Mary Louise Kelly (18:41)

Tom Bowman sharing what he is learning from working his sources. I want to say welcome. If you are listening and you are new to the show, thanks for being here. I also want to explain our title, Sources and Methods. This is a term you may know from the intelligence community if you track military circles. It's shorthand for how do we know what we know? And it's the name of our show because we cover the intelligence community. Also because sources and methods are part of our work as journalists. We're going to take a quick break. When we come back, OSINT Open Source Intelligence. You're listening to Sources and Methods. Hi, it's Terry Gross, host of Fresh Air. Hey, take a break from the 24 hour news cycle with us and listen to long form interviews with your favorite authors, actors, filmmakers, comedians and musicians. The people making the art that nourishes us and speaks to our times. So listen to the Fresh Air podcast from NPR and whyy.

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When someone you love is diagnosed with cancer or another serious illness, all you want to do is help. But where do you start? On the Life Kit podcast we have tips for you.

Greg Myre (19:56)

Your agenda should be I'm going to be with you and be totally present.

Mary Louise Kelly (20:00)

To whatever comes up.

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Mary Louise Kelly (20:55)

As you know, if you've been listening to us these past few weeks, we have been asking you please rate the show. Review the show on whatever podcast app you use. It is a great way to support the work we're doing. It helps other people find us and we do reach. Read the comments you write, like this one from Harp who wrote on Apple Podcasts. As a veteran of the Cold War, I know enough about how the intelligence world works to listen critically to reporting on national security. This podcast gets my top reading for process, depth and analysis. I am especially appreciative of this reporting at this moment in history. Well, thank you Harp and we are appreciative of the many listeners who've left reviews and ratings like that one. So if your phone is in your hand, you can do it right now at just takes a few seconds. We're going to end now as we always do with OSINT Open source Intelligence juicy information that is right out there in the open, publicly available. Greg Myhre, you're in Israel. Why don't you start?

Greg Myre (21:58)

Yeah Mary Louise. So I'm here in Tel Aviv waiting for Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners to be released. And it actually got me thinking of one of my neighbors in Washington. He's a guy named Joe Cipio, who's now in his 90s. But in the 1980s and early 90s, he was held hostage for more than five years in Lebanon by an extremist group. He was chained to a radiator much of that time. He was moved around to different sites in Lebanon. When he was released finally in 1991, he was really feted when he came back to the US and invited to a lot of events. The first person to invite him to a big event was a New York real estate mogul at the time. Name? You guessed it, Donald Trump. So Trump had nothing to do with that case. This was more than 30 years ago. But Trump has always made a huge deal of hostage releases, and he's dove in and tried to sort out a lot of these cases. So here I am sitting in Tel Aviv. Trump has been very active in these negotiations for the ceasefire that are supposed to free these Israeli hostages.

Mary Louise Kelly (23:09)

Yeah, you should give your neighbor a call and see how he's taking in all of this.

Greg Myre (23:13)

I will. And Joe, by the way, Joe has lived a really good life. He came out of that ordeal, has worked until a few years ago, and over the years has repeatedly gone back to Lebanon with his Lebanese wife and still loves the place despite his ordeal there.

Mary Louise Kelly (23:31)

Wow. All right. I will offer up a little morsel of ussent to do with Ukraine and specifically women on the front lines in Ukraine. This was. I got this from a note from our colleague Joanna Kakissis, who's reporting in Ukraine. As you all know, there's this lovely ritual if you're overseas. You send a little morning pass off a bulletin on what's happening in your spot of the world. And I love reading these. It's my favorite part of the day. You get buongiorno from Roma and you get Dobri utra from our Moscow correspondent. So Joanna this week in one of her pass offs, flagged this story that she is working on about growing numbers of Ukrainian women joining the military. Her reporting is that there are now 70,000 women in Ukraine's armed forces. That that is up by more than 20% from when the war started in 2022. And that includes women in combat, fighter pilots, artillery commanders, et cetera. She had this one quote that stopped me in my tracks. A woman, 27 years old. Her name is Marina Matsyuk. She has applied to serve in special Forces units. She's waiting to hear which one she'll get assigned to. But she told our colleagues in Ukraine, and I'm quoting, it's better to die on the battlefield than from a missile hitting your apartment in Kyiv. It is better to die fighting than die on your knees, which is such a striking way to put it. And it also struck me, of course, cuz the whole issue of women in combat is very much live here in the United States, as you know. Tom.

Tom Bowman (25:09)

Exactly.

Mary Louise Kelly (25:10)

With Pete Hegseth pushing these new fitness standards that are going to be the highest male standards.

Tom Bowman (25:15)

Correct. And he's also questioned whether women should be in ground combat. But it's interesting to note that more and more women are joining the Army. It's up 18% from the previous year. And many of them do want to go into infantry, armor or artillery. And by the way, if you want to go into those specialties, you have to compete. You have to meet the same physical fitness standards as the guys. So there's no lowering of the standards there.

Mary Louise Kelly (25:41)

Okay, Tom, your turn. What is your OSINT this week?

Tom Bowman (25:45)

Signal Gate. Remember that from back in the spring? Of course, there was a classified briefing about a US Attack on Yemen. So everybody was on this high level classified brief. Marco Rubio, J.D. vance.

Mary Louise Kelly (26:00)

Well, it was a Signal chat group, right? I mean it was.

Tom Bowman (26:03)

Well, it was a classified chat. However, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth sent that information over unsecured. Signal Chat. Actually two of those chats. So the Senate Armed Services Committee and.

Mary Louise Kelly (26:17)

A journalist, Jeff Goldberg, the Atlantic ended up in the chat room. And that's how we all know that it existed. Yeah. Okay, go ahead.

Tom Bowman (26:25)

So the leading Republican and Democrat on the Senate Armed Services Committee asked the Pentagon, ig, why don't you look into this?

Mary Louise Kelly (26:30)

The ig, The Inspector General.

Tom Bowman (26:32)

Inspector General, Correct. Well, that report was done over a month ago and completed. It now sits at the Pentagon for review by the Secretary of Defense. We haven't seen it yet. The Hill hasn't seen it yet. So will we ever see it?

Mary Louise Kelly (26:46)

Well, just call him on Signal and ask him.

Tom Bowman (26:48)

Right, I may do that.

Mary Louise Kelly (26:52)

That's NPR Pentagon correspondent Tom Bowman. Thank you so much.

Tom Bowman (26:56)

You're welcome.

Mary Louise Kelly (26:56)

And NPR national security correspondent and occasional international roving reporter Greg Myrey in Tel Aviv. Thank you, Greg.

Greg Myre (27:03)

Right. Hey, sure thing, Mary Louise.

Mary Louise Kelly (27:05)

And one more thank you before we go. And this one is to our NPR supporters who have stepped up to support the journalism you hear on this podcast and across npr. Now, if you're not a supporter yet, please change that you can learn more. You can sign up@plus.NPR.org the link is in our episode notes. And if you do it, you can hear every episode of this show without sponsor messages. You can access our full back catalog and unlock a lot of perks like discounts on NPR merchandise and sponsor free listening for other NPR shows, shows like up first or the NPR Politics Podcast. I'm Mary Louise Kelly. We're back next week with another episode of Sources and Methods from npr.

Tom Bowman (27:58)

Crime looks different than it used to. A loophole in a crypto wallet could yield a billion dollars. A deep fake of your voice could be used to steal money from your bank. We have PhDs in our team, and.

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They can't tell the difference themselves.

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AI has gotten that good. The Indicator from Planet Money is digging into the evolving business of crime. And listen in the NPR app or wherever you get podcasts.

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A lot of short daily news podcasts focus on just one story, but right now you probably need more on up first from NPR. We bring you three of the world's top headlines every day in under 15 minutes because no one story can capture all that's happening in this big, crazy world of ours on any given morning. Listen now to the upverse podcast from npr. Short Wave thinks of science as an invisible force showing up in your everyday life, powering the food you eat, the medicine you use, the tech in your pocket. Science is approachable because it's already part of your life. Come explore these connections on the Shortwave podcast from NPR.