What’s next after Iran truce / Hormuz status / Israel and Lebanon

Summary

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Podcast Summary: Sources & Methods (NPR)

Episode: What’s Next After Iran Truce / Hormuz Status / Israel and Lebanon
Date: April 9, 2026
Host: Mary Louise Kelly
Guests: Tom Bowman (Pentagon correspondent), Daniel Estrin (International correspondent, Tel Aviv)

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Episode Overview

This episode untangles the rapidly-developing aftermath of the US-Iran truce, focusing on the tangled ceasefire, the uncertain status of the Strait of Hormuz, ongoing Israel-Lebanon hostilities, and reactions from regional and international stakeholders. Through expert insights from NPR correspondents, the show analyzes diplomacy, military calculations, and public sentiment as the Mideast teeters between fragile peace and further escalation.

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Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. The “Ceasefire” Between US and Iran: Conditional and Confusing

[00:43–07:53]

• Ceasefire Status:
  The US and Iran entered an “apocalypse-averting” truce just before President Trump’s self-imposed deadline, but violations and ambiguity surround its implementation.

• Strait of Hormuz:

  • Iran says it’s open if ships coordinate passage, but traffic is a trickle (3-4 ships daily instead of 130).
  • After Israel’s attacks on Lebanon, Iran closed the strait again, leveraging its control for strategic advantage.

• US Military’s Warning Was Not Heeded:

  • Tom Bowman: “The military’s been studying going to war with Iran for decades… The Iranians would close the Strait of Hormuz. That’s their ace. That’s clearly what they’ve done.” [03:27]
  • Administration underestimated Iran’s leverage; now facing consequences, notably skyrocketing fuel prices.

• Widespread Attacks in the Gulf:

  • Even after the ceasefire, attacks have been reported on oil refineries and from Iranian drones/missiles in Kuwait, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar.

Notable Quote

“I think they closed it at one point after that bombing in Lebanon. And then I think maybe three or four ships have gone through there, as opposed to 130 ships every single day. So they're in charge, a dribble of ships…”
— Tom Bowman [03:27]

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2. Negotiating the Way Out: The Iranian Proposal and US Response

[05:40–08:55]

• Ceasefire Details — Who is Included?:
  • Lebanon’s war continues despite truce claims. The US/Israel exclude Lebanon from the ceasefire; Iran claims it’s included; Pakistani PM sides with Iran.
• Iran’s Demands:
  • Control of the Strait of Hormuz, continuation of uranium enrichment, end of nuclear oversight, lifting of sanctions, war reparations, US troops’ exit.
• US Desperation?
  • White House calls Iran’s terms a “workable basis,” but NPR correspondents find this “astounding”—none of these are acceptable to US policymakers.
• Diplomatic Weakness:
  • US reached out to Egypt and Pakistan to mediate—perceived by some as a sign of weakness.
  • US is seeking a way out rather than leverage; only US appears to be strictly observing the ceasefire.

Notable Quote

“...for the administration to say it's workable is astounding because I can't imagine any of these being acceptable to the administration. I think they're just... looking for a way out.”
— Tom Bowman [07:08]

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3. US Military and Presidential Authority

[09:06–10:53]

• Trump’s Escalating Rhetoric:
  • Initially campaigned for a Nobel Peace Prize but recently threatened to “wipe out an entire civilization.”
• Military Refusal of Illegal Orders:
  • US officials assured Congress military would not act on illegal orders (e.g., mass destruction of civilian targets or cultural sites).
  • Historical context from 2020: Similar threats were ignored by the Pentagon.

Notable Quote

“There's clear, they saw these as illegal orders that they did not have to adhere to.”
— Tom Bowman [09:40]

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4. Israeli Perspective: Kept Out, Racing the Clock

[13:27–17:55]

• Israel Excluded From Ceasefire Negotiations:
  • Israel learned of the deal only shortly before public announcement. “Kept out of the loop on these negotiations over a war that it started with the US” — Daniel Estrin [13:34]
• Israel’s Dissatisfaction:
  • Despite heavy damage inflicted on Iran, Israel’s principal goal (removal of enriched uranium) not realized. Netanyahu’s public posturing signals discontent.
  • Popular sentiment: War was widely supported (down from 90% to ~70%), but ceasefire leaves many Israelis feeling it was “for nothing.”
• Quote from Israeli citizen:

  “I woke up feeling really angry and really frustrated. I feel like all of this war was for nothing... feels like Netanyahu and Trump came out as losers.” — Yuval Kristal [16:33]

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5. The Lebanon Exception and Risk of Ceasefire Collapse

[17:55–18:59]

• Disputed Inclusion:
  • Iran claims Lebanon is under the truce; Israel and US disagree.
  • Significant pressure from Germany and Europe urging Israel to de-escalate in Lebanon.
  • Netanyahu announces willingness for direct negotiations with Lebanon, signaling a possible ramp-down.

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6. Iran’s Perspective: Resilient and Emboldened

[21:00–24:47]

• Political Survival & Perception:
  • Regime change failed; Khamenei replaced by another Khamenei; Revolutionary Guard solidifies control.
  • Public displays of flag-waving in Tehran underscore defiance, not surrender.
  • Iran’s ability to withstand “the most powerful armies in the world” and paralyze global shipping is viewed as a show of strength.
• Leadership Vacuum:
  • US confusion remains over who is truly in charge in Tehran post-conflict.
• Inside Iran:
  • NPR interview with unnamed Iranian refugee indicates a populace traumatized by destruction, feeling helpless under Revolutionary Guard control.

Notable Quote

“This is not a regime that has been brought to its knees...”
— Daniel Estrin [21:28]

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7. What’s Next? Stakes for the US, Israel, Iran, Region

[25:24–27:25]

• Future Scenarios:
  • Another ceasefire extension (“kick the can down the road”) is likely.
  • US forces to remain in the region; military build-up continues.
• Gulf Allies Demand More:
  • Gulf states want US guarantees for defense cooperation and protection of energy facilities.

Notable Quote

“I don't think we're going to be going back to war in Iran. I do think these next several weeks are… money time and this is the time when everyone will be coming with their asks and their demands.”
— Daniel Estrin [26:22]

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Memorable Moments & Quotes

• On the Strait of Hormuz:
  “...open the fucking strait, you crazy bastards.” — President Trump, as quoted by Mary Louise Kelly [31:01]

• OSINT Section:

  • Daniel Estrin relates an SNL-style Israeli sketch capturing societal divisions and trauma:
    “...even if you see the surveys here of such high support for the war, people went through a real ordeal and it was sleepless, it was difficult. And people are not going to forget that very quickly...” [27:39]
  • Tom Bowman tells the story of “Killer Chick,” a pilot who survived heavy enemy fire, paralleling current US aircraft losses [29:08].

• On Reporting Language and Objectivity:
  Mary Louise Kelly discusses the challenges of paraphrasing official profanity on air and the relief provided by “moonjoy” from NASA’s Artemis II mission’s awe-inspiring commentary. [32:14]

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Segment Timestamps

• [00:43–04:32]: Overview of ceasefire, Strait of Hormuz status
• [04:32–05:40]: Effectiveness of ceasefire, Gulf States under attack
• [05:40–07:53]: Negotiations, Iran’s demands, US mediation
• [09:06–10:53]: Trump’s orders, US military refusal to carry out illegal directives
• [13:27–17:55]: Israel’s position, public reaction, Netanyahu’s red lines
• [17:55–18:59]: Lebanon’s situation, international pressure
• [21:00–24:47]: Iran’s postwar status, regime resilience
• [25:24–27:25]: What’s next, military posture, Gulf nations
• [27:39–32:44]: OSINT and closing memorable moments

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Conclusion

This episode exposes the complexity and uncertainty underlying the current "ceasefire" in the latest US-Iran confrontation, dissecting the regional, diplomatic, and popular consequences. While violence has halted in some arenas, key flashpoints—the Strait of Hormuz, Lebanon, and nuclear issues—remain unsettled and primed for further tension. The show closes with both levity and gravity, reminding listeners of the human and psychological toll behind the headlines and giving a rare moonlit moment of hope amid the tumult.

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Transcript

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[Daniel Estrin]

I do think these next several weeks are money time and this is the time when everyone will be coming with their asks and their demands.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

At the 11th hour, with President Trump's self imposed deadline looming, the United States and Iran entered a truce. Will it hold? Is the war over? What's the way ahead? This is Sources and Methods from npr. I'm Mary Louise Kelly. Every Thursday on this podcast, I dive deep into the week's biggest national security stories with NPR reporters out there covering them. Joining me in the studio, NPR Pentagon correspondent Tom Bowman. Hi, my friend.

[Tom Bowman]

Hello, Mary Louise.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

And in Tel Aviv, NPR international correspondent Daniel Estrin. Hello to you, my faraway friend.

[Daniel Estrin]

Hi there.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

Hey. So to timestamp this, it is just past noon Eastern Thursday for Tom and me. That's what, around dinner time for you?

[Daniel Estrin]

DANIEL that's about right. Yeah.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

I guess I'll eat after this 7pm or so. Let's dive in. It has been around six weeks since the start of the US Israel war against Iran. On Tuesday night, the US and Iran entered a last minute apocalypse averting ceasefire. Now this came 90 minutes before President President Trump's deadline and there is still a lot of firing going on during this nominal ceasefire. As for the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow shipping channel we have all been paying a lot of attention to lately, Iran says it's open if ships coordinate passage with Iran. But since the ceasefire kicked in, Israel attacked Lebanon. In response, Iran closed reclosed the strait. DANIEL as of this hour, where are we? Strait of Hormuz, Open, closed, something in

[Daniel Estrin]

between, not really open. Ships are barely passing. Iran has said that ships have to coordinate with Iran. I think this is just one example of how confusing the ceasefire is. Trump says the ceasefire is conditional on the straight opening. The White House press secretary gave conflicting answers yesterday. Our colleague at npr, Mara Liasson, asked her repeatedly asked Caroline Levitt, yeah, who's in control of the strait? We didn't get a straight answer.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

Tom, what are you hearing from Pentagon sources about this? And let me back us up actually, because before this war got underway, before a final decision was made, we are told Pentagon brass warned the Strait of Hormuz is gonna be a problem. Iran is gonna try to leverage it. They clearly have. They clearly have succeeded in doing that. Here we are. I mean, what does that tell us about the influence of Pentagon leadership, military commanders, chairman of the Joint Chiefs, on the Commander in chief's thinking?

[Tom Bowman]

It tells you they weren't listening to the military. The military's been studying going to war with Iran for decades. And one of the things they knew would happen, it's obvious, is the Iranians would close the Strait of Hormuz. That's their ace. That's clearly what they've done. And there's no question they would do that. I think the administration, according to reporting by the New York Times, they said, well, you know, it's not going to last that long. We're going to decapitate the government, get regime change, and so we don't have to worry about the Strait of Hormuz. Now everyone's worried about Strait of Hormuz, including those who, like me, who are paying $1.20 more per gallon of gas. That's not going to end anytime soon. And the Iranians do control the Strait of Hormuz. Well, what Caroline Levitt said basically about the Strait of Hormuz, you know, it's hard to square with the facts. Clearly, Iran is controlling the Strait of Hormuz. I think they closed it at one point after that bombing in Lebanon. And then I think maybe three or four ships have gone through there, as opposed to 130 ships every single day. So they're in charge, a dribble of

[Mary Louise Kelly]

ships, and we're watching hour by hour to see what happens in the street. Meanwhile, Daniel, the broader ceasefire and questions over whether firing has, in fact, ceased. Our colleague Abitrawi in Dubai is reporting today that in the first 24 hours of this ceasefire, Iran said one of its oil refineries has been hit. Five Gulf Arab states are reporting attacks from Iranian drones and missiles. Kuwait, uae, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar. How much of a ceasefire is this?

[Daniel Estrin]

Yeah, not much. I mean, as of now, the Iran war is on hold. Those attacks on the Gulf countries are on hold. Israel and Iran are not attacking each other. But the Lebanon war is still going on. And so that's just another point of confusion on this. Is Lebanon supposed to be a part of the ceasefire? Trump and Israel say no. Iran says yes.

[Tom Bowman]

Well, also, if I could quickly add, please, the Pakistani prime minister said Lebanon is part of this ceasefire, he said that publicly.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

I mean, it points. The messiness of this ceasefire, and I'm using air quotes around ceasefire, the messiness of all this, it seems to be revealing. These were two countries, the US And Iran, that didn't have diplomatic relations before the war. They were never talking directly to each other. They didn't have ambassadors working from embassies in each other's capital. So it becomes so tricky now that they are at war or have been at war, to get on the same page. So let's just walk through where things are from the point of view of each of the major stakeholders here. U.S. tom, you go first. We know that J.D. vance, the Vice President, is going to lead talks set to kick off in Pakistan this weekend. We're told that those talks will build from this Iranian proposal, which the White House has called a workable basis to start negotiating. Is it. What's in it? What do we know?

[Tom Bowman]

Well, say it's a workable basis. It's really curious because some of the things that Iran is asking for, controlling the Strait of Hormuz, continuing its uranium enrichment program, terminating any international oversight of their nuclear program, and also the lifting of sanctions and reparations. War reparations. Reparations as well.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

And that U.S. troops are supposed to get out of the region.

[Tom Bowman]

Right. So for.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

This is a hard list for the

[Tom Bowman]

U.S. well, the administration to say it's workable is astounding because I can't imagine any of these being acceptable to the administration. I think they're just kind of, at this point, they're looking for a way out. I think that's what this is all about. The only one adhering to the ceasefire is the United States.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

Can I just point out this plan, which has not. We haven't been able to comb through the details. It hasn't been laid out publicly, but we're getting a readout on what may be in this Iranian proposal. It seems to amount to a worse deal from the U.S. s point of view. From what. What President Obama negotiated back with the nuclear deal, the jcpoa, back when he was in the White House.

[Tom Bowman]

No, that's absolutely right. You know, back then they had limited

[Mary Louise Kelly]

the deal that Trump blew up, by the way.

[Tom Bowman]

Exactly. Back then, it was a limited enrichment program, 3.67%, far below the 90% enrichment you need for a nuclear weapon. It also had inspectors and it had, you know, restrictions on facilities and centrifuges and so forth. So, you know, some people criticize it, but others say, listen, we kept them in a box. I remember talking to a senior officer in the Pentagon at that time. He said, listen, Tom, the great thing about this is we don't have to go to war with Iran. Let the diplomats talk about this for the next decade. That was the sense of the senior military officials at the time.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

You just said your sense from your reporting is the US Is looking for a way out. The US Is looking for an offer.

[Tom Bowman]

Well, who reached out first? The administration reached out to Egypt and Pakistan and basically said, we want you to be mediators. As soon as that happened, I talked to another senior officer, retired, a lot of experience in the Middle East. And he said it's a sign of weakness and Iran knows it.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

Has anything changed for the better at this point, six weeks in?

[Tom Bowman]

No, I think for the U.S. well, for the U.S. i mean, yeah, they've degraded, seriously degraded the military capabilities of Iran. No question about that.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

A last question for you, which is to President Trump specifically and his credibility. This is a president who not that long ago was launching an active campaign to win the Nobel Peace Prize. This week we heard him threatening to wipe out an entire civilization. Can I just as a point of fact, had that order gone through and it didn't, but had it gone through, would the military have acted on it?

[Tom Bowman]

I don't think they would. And I talked with a US Official on Capitol Hill who said lawmakers were assured by senior military officers, first of all, we're not going to hit civilian targets. We haven't been asked to hit civilian targets and we wouldn't. So there's clear they saw these as illegal orders that they did not have to adhere to. There's no question about that. And I think clearly the lawmakers were breathing a sigh of relief that you're not going to take out a whole civilization. It's clearly a war crime to do that. And also back in 2020, when they took out Qasem Soleimani, the Iranian military leader at that time, President Trump said he wanted to hit 52 cultural sites in Iran. Should the Iranians attack US forces and the military, I'm told just kind of they didn't do anything. And obviously they're not going to attack cultural sites. And basically then the president kind of forgot about it, so it just kind of went away. But that would be the type of thing. Where had they been ordered to do it? I think most senior military officers would say, sir, it's an illegal order, we can't do it.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

Fascinating. We're going to take a break. When we come back, where does this two week ceasefire leave Iran? Where does it leave Israel and its ambitions? We're going to put that to Daniel ahead on Sources and Methods from npr.

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[Mary Louise Kelly]

We're back. Daniel. Is Israel satisfied with this ceasefire deal that the US And Iran appear to have struck?

[Daniel Estrin]

Well, I can tell you Israel learned about the ceasefire deal shortly before Trump announced it publicly. That's according to a person I spoke to who was briefed on that, and that person spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss all this backdoor negotiating. Israel was kept out of the loop on these negotiations over a war that it started with the US So was it happy? I think Israel knew it was a matter of time. Israel knew Trump was the decider, and it was up to Trump to decide whether to end this war. And when they knew Israel, they knew Trump wanted to end it. And when it became clear that the Iranian regime was not about to collapse as Israel and Trump had dangled at the very beginning of this war, it became, I think the war became for Israel, a race against the clock of how much damage can Israel inflict on Iran's capabilities before Trump calls a ceasefire?

[Mary Louise Kelly]

How does the current state of play square with Israel's stated ambitions for this war? I mean, to take an obvious example, Iran still has its enriched uranium stockpile. Israel is still not happy about that. I was seeing where Netanyahu, Minister Netanyahu said on tv, iran's enriched uranium will be removed by agreement or by war. What does that mean?

[Daniel Estrin]

I don't think it means Israel will go to war in Iran to remove that enriched uranium. There is no chance. Israel cannot afford to lose Trump support. It cannot afford to. To launch a war against Iran without Trump support. I think with Netanyahu saying that publicly, that is more Netanyahu trying to influence the negotiations that he's not in the room to negotiate and to be a part of. He is trying to influence those negotiations through his public posturing. So by stating publicly that this is Israel's top priority not to leave in Iran this enriched uranium that Trump said on. On Truth social media could stay in Iran as nuclear dust. He put it, you know, this is. This is material that's supposedly buried under rubble from last year's war with Iran.

[Tom Bowman]

And it's not dust. It's a thousand pounds of nuclear material.

[Daniel Estrin]

Yeah, well, is it effectively dust if it stays underground? And that's the question. We've also seen Trump's in truth social, that there could be satellite surveillance to make sure that no one touches it. I think by Netanyahu saying that has to leave Iran, he's. He's laying his gun on the table on his red line.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

What has been reaction in Israel, just among ordinary Israelis? Because I know you've been reporting, Daniel, the war in Israel has broadly been popular, at least more popular than it has been for the American public. Yeah.

[Daniel Estrin]

I mean, at the beginning of the war among Jewish Israelis, there was like over 90% support. And recent polls showed that that support did slip to somewhere around 70ish percent around that same demographic. So still very, very high. But the morning that we all woke up here to the news of the ceasefire, we met some Israelis at a cafe. One of them was just relieved, frankly, like me, that we can sleep again at night because we've been waking up to sounds of booms and explosions and missile attacks in the middle of the night. But you don't hear a lot of satisfaction in Israel. We spoke with one woman, Yuval Kristal, and she told us, I woke up feeling really angry and really frustrated. I feel like all of this war was for nothing. She said, I feel like we Israelis were treated like lab rats in this war. We had our economy shut down for 40ish days. Schools were canceled, people were running into bomb shelters day and night. And then suddenly she said, it feels like Netanyahu and Trump came out as losers. And she thinks it's a matter of time before Iran rebuilds and attacks Israel again. And so why not just finish the job now? I think that's a very, very common sentiment around around here.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

And then we touched on Lebanon, but just lay out exactly where that fits in. Iran says the whole Israeli assault on Lebanon is part of this ceasefire. Israel says, no, it isn't. Does that have the potential to torpedo the whole deal?

[Daniel Estrin]

Well, you definitely see now, and this is just breaking here, a lot of concern from Germany. Germany's chancellor said so. And other European leaders urging Israel to call it quits with its war in Lebanon. And Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu just came out with an announcement that he is agreeing to direct negotiations with Lebanon. This is extraordinary. It doesn't mean Israel is announcing a ceasefire, but I think the message is very clear. Israel will be ramping down its war in Lebanon and it will be fascinating to see where this goes because certainly Israel's continued fight in Lebanon was putting this whole ceasefire in peril and certainly

[Mary Louise Kelly]

a lot of international pressure, it sounds like from the US and from, from a lot of other capitals on Israel to, to rein it in and give this ceasefire a chance. Okay, after a short break, what cards does Iran still hold as still head on? Sources and methods from npr.

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[Mary Louise Kelly]

We're back with Daniel Estrin and Tom Bowman. We have mapped out where this two week ceasefire leaves things in the us, in Israel, in Lebanon, which leaves the country at the center of it all, Iran. We know that President Trump, as we nodded to, threatened to erase its civilization. That was just this week. Daniel. Iran's leaders are spinning this, if anything, as a victory. Explain.

[Daniel Estrin]

Everyone is spinning this as a victory. Iran, Israel, Trump. From Iran's perspective, they feel emboldened. This war that started with a call to replace the regime, well, one Khamenei was replaced by another Khamenei. So the regime is still there. It is proven that it can withstand the most powerful army in the world and the most powerful army in the region, Israel. And it discovered, as Tom said, its ace the Strait of Hormuz and what havoc it can wreak not only on the Gulf but on the entire globe. And so this is not a regime that has been brought to its knees and it knows that Trump is negotiating with it. And I think it's very clear to all involved that Iran proved that it is a lot more capable than I think Israel and the US Expected it to be at the beginning of this war.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

Just to put a visual on it, I was looking at video, I was looking at photos out of Tehran on yesterday, Wednesday. People are out in the streets. They are waving flags, they're not white flags. They're not white flags of surrender. They're the green, white and red flag of the Islamic Republic.

[Tom Bowman]

Remember, President Trump said he wanted to get involved in choosing a new Iranian leader. Remember that? And he also said that Mushtava Khamenei was not really the one he wanted. Well, who's in charge now?

[Mary Louise Kelly]

Well, actually, that's a great point. I'm still not sure we know who's in charge now.

[Daniel Estrin]

Right.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

We haven't heard or directly heard from us about.

[Tom Bowman]

That is a good point. I was talking with a regional diplomat who's involved in some of these talks, and this guy was basically saying, we don't really know who's in charge in Iran right now.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

As both of you know, we are constantly working to bring the voices of ordinary Iranians into our coverage. It has been hard because we don't have a reporter on the ground. We do have colleagues all over the region, including our colleague Deep Parvaz, who has been at Turkey's border with Iran this week. She's been in a town called Van in Turkey. And I want to play a little bit. She spoke to a woman from Tehran who crossed the border into Turkey a couple of days ago. This woman, like a lot of Iranians exiting Iran, didn't want to give her name because she's worried about reprisal when she returns home. But our colleague Dee asked her about a possible ceasefire. And the woman, it was fascinating. She chose to answer by addressing President Trump directly. So she's saying, you came and you killed many of us. You damaged our infrastructure. And then she continued. So what she's saying there is this war triggered a military coup in Iran. Her point being the country is now entirely under the control of the Revolutionary Guard. That's her impression, which she says is more hardline than the Supreme Leader who was killed on day one. Tom, pick up there. We just heard Daniel making the case that perhaps Iran has in some ways emerged stronger from this war than it was before February 28th.

[Tom Bowman]

No, I think that's absolutely right. And the President, of course, is saying there are reasonable people now in Iran that we can deal with. But clearly, from what she's saying in what we see now, the Revolutionary Guard is still in control, maybe even more control than it was just a couple of months ago. So that's a particular problem. And also the president and others have been saying, well, the Iranian people can just rise up and take over the country. Well, they don't have any weapons. The Revolutionary Guard has all the weapons. It's Brutal. It's killed thousands of Iranians who are protesting, not even trying to take over the government, just simply protesting.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

So let me bring us toward a close by asking this as you two report and work your sources. It's impossible to predict the future, but are either of you getting a sense of what happens in two weeks when we reach this new deadline? Does the ceasefire continue? Is the war over? Could it start right back up?

[Tom Bowman]

My guess is they'll kick the can down the road again. Trump has done that on two occasions, asking for negotiations and then postponing it and saying, well, we'll talk in a couple of days or a couple of weeks. So I think you'll likely see another effort to postpone negotiations or kick that can down the road that will.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

U.S. forces staying put in the region.

[Tom Bowman]

U.S. forces will definitely stay put in the region. We have 2,000 or more paratroopers with the 82nd in the region. We have 2,500 Marines afloat off Oman. And then we have 2,500 additional Marines on the way. They could be arriving there in the next day or two.

[Daniel Estrin]

I think Tom is right. I don't think. Well, I don't have my crystal ball here, but I don't think we're going to be going back to war in Iran. I do think these next several weeks are. This is money time and this is the time when everyone will be coming with their asks and their demands. That includes the Gulf. I was speaking to an official from the region who was telling me what the Gulf's demands are now. They want enhanced defense cooperation with the U.S. the U.S. had been helping them knock out Iranian missiles from the sky. Missiles and drones. They want to make sure that. That the US Is going to enhance that cooperation. They want to make sure that their energy sites will be guaranteed to be protected in this deal. There's a lot of asks all around this region. Not everything will be in the final deal. And this is, this is the. I think the test will be in the coming weeks when we see something emerge with that.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

We're going to end as we usually do with osint. Open source intelligence. Not classified, not so secret, but telling details we pick up as we report. Daniel, you want to kick us off?

[Daniel Estrin]

Well, this is from the deeply darkly classified television show. Hahaha. Not at all classified. It's Israel's version of Saturday Night Live. Here it's called Eretz Nehederet. A wonderful country. And there was a sketch that I think really captured something very profound and true about what Israeli society went through. In the last 40 days of war, you have this sort of like Cinderella situation where those who are in the safe rooms, in their room, they get to drink champagne and have strawberries while the sirens are going off and as if nothing is going on. While meanwhile the wretched have nots are trudging in the rain and to the barn with the straw. And you can imagine Cinderella in the cellar and that's the shelter. It was really funny and it said a lot about how people, even if you see the surveys here of such high support for the war, people went through a real ordeal and it was sleepless, it was difficult. And people are not going to forget that very quickly when they think about their future, whether it could be a matter of time if, if there is just another war.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

Such a reminder of how different segments of the population experience the same war and such different ways. Tom, what you got?

[Tom Bowman]

Well, speaking of an ordeal, we know that two American aircraft were shot down during the Iran war. One was an F15 and the other was an A10 Warthog, I like to call it a Warthog being from the Boston area. And this pilot reported taking anti aircraft fire and also large numbers of shoulder fired missiles were flying all around him, hitting him. He was able to get his aircraft, the Watthag, over to Kuwait where he punched out and you know, was safe and so forth. But it reminded me back in 2003, the same month in April 2003, there was a pilot, a female pilot, Kim Campbell, flying over Baghdad supporting U.S. troops. She was hit hundreds of times in her aircraft. She lost hydraulic power. It's physically demanding. When you lose hydraulics, you basically have to go manual. Very physically demanding. And she somehow was able to. She said it was like flying a brick. She somehow was able to land that plane safely. She got a Distinguished Flying Cross. And my favorite part of all of this is her nickname is Killer Chick.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

Killer Chick, yeah. Which sounds like she earned.

[Tom Bowman]

Oh yes.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

Well, I will end with Moonjoy. And by way of backdrop, I will say I don't need to tell the two of you some weeks are more challenging than others in this job in terms of trying to find words that accurately, completely convey what is happening in the US in the world, while complying with NPR politics journalistic standards of objectivity and complying with FCC rules that govern what we can broadcast and that we can't broadcast. Profanity.

[Tom Bowman]

Uh oh, here we go.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

Heads up. Advance warning. Profanity is coming because I am about to accurately quote our president who this week posted online on Easter Sunday morning, no less. Quote, open the fucking straight, you crazy bastards. That's a challenging week to try to navigate just exactly how we report that. And one way to do it is to do what I just said and quote it. I was heartened and this is my osint to learn about somebody else who was struggling to try to find the right words this week, namely the astronauts on board Artemis 2 circling the moon. In their case, they were struggling to find words to capture the wonder of what they were seeing out their window. And I want to just play you a little bit. Our colleague Eva Berger filed a story, this was Monday, about how the crew of the Artemis 2 mission were seeing parts of the moon that human eyes have never seen before. Just think about that. This moon we all look, if you can see it every night, parts of it we have never seen. Ava linked to live commentary coming in from that space capsule. This is from astronaut Reid Wiseman. NASA posted it around 3am Sunday on X.

[Daniel Estrin]

You know, I'm not one for hyperbole,

[Mary Louise Kelly]

but it's the only thing I could come up with just seeing Tycho. There's mountains to the north.

[Daniel Estrin]

You can see Copernicus, Rainier, Gamma.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

It's just everything from the training but in three dimension and absolutely unbelievable. This is incredible. Kathy, moonjoy, you can hear the delay there, but that is mission control on Earth responding. Copy, moonjoy. And boy, did I need that this week. Bring on the moon joy.

[Daniel Estrin]

Yeah, 100%.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

We're even speaking with NPR international correspondent Daniel Estrin in Tel Aviv and Pentagon correspondent Tom Bowman in the studio with me. Thanks as always to you both.

[Tom Bowman]

You're welcome.

[Daniel Estrin]

Always a pleasure.

[Mary Louise Kelly]

And before we go, quick plug. We know you are busy. We too are busy. But you do not have to miss out on your your favorite podcasts like this one while you're on the go with the NPR app, your local station and your favorite podcasts like this one, Sources and Methods. They are right there in your pocket. They can keep you company just like we always have. You can download the NPR app today and once you are in there, please make sure to search for and follow this show. It really helps us. That is it for today's episode. Thank you for listening. I'm Mary Louise Kelly. We're back next week with another episode of Sources and Methods from npr.

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