Statecraft Podcast Episode 50: Thoughts on DOGE

Host: Santi Ruiz
Release Date: March 6, 2025
Title: Statecraft – Episode 50: Thoughts on DOGE

Introduction to DOGE and Its Significance

In Episode 50 of Statecraft, host Santi Ruiz delves deep into the enigmatic federal initiative known as DOGE. Described as "the most interesting story in state capacity right now," DOGE has become a focal point of intense public and political discourse. Ruiz acknowledges the podcast's previous touchpoints on DOGE but highlights the absence of a direct analysis until now. This episode marks a pivotal exploration of DOGE's role, impact, and the surrounding controversies.

Modeling DOGE: Expectations vs. Reality

Ruiz begins by sharing his personal framework for understanding DOGE, referencing his essay "50 Thoughts on DOGE." He emphasizes a "low to medium confidence" epistemic stance, reflecting the complexities and uncertainties surrounding the initiative.

"Effective altruists do this thing in their online posts where they specify the quote unquote epistemic status of a post, how confident they are about the claims they're making." [00:00]

He admits that some initial expectations about DOGE, such as its potential to function as a "glorified blue ribbon commission," have not aligned with its current trajectory. Instead, DOGE has evolved into the "U.S. Doge Service," a transformation Ruiz attributes to shifts in leadership and strategic focus.

Information Environment and Elon Musk’s Influence

A significant portion of the episode examines the adversarial information landscape in which DOGE operates. Ruiz critiques Elon Musk's role, noting his substantial influence yet questioning his reliability as a "narrator" of federal issues.

"Elon has noticed this trend. He enjoys partaking in beef, and he's incentivized beefing as the modal form of Twitter engagement since taking over the company." [00:00]

Ruiz discusses how Musk's management of Twitter fosters a culture of conflict ("beefing"), which, in turn, shapes his actions within DOGE. This environment complicates the public's ability to discern reliable information amid entrenched partisanship and institutional biases.

DOGE's Approach to Foreign Aid and USAID

Ruiz critically analyzes DOGE's impact on foreign aid, particularly its interactions with USAID. He highlights DOGE's aggressive cuts to USAID programs and the dismissal of key personnel aimed at streamlining operations and reducing expenditures.

"The Doge team has axed the most effective and efficient programs at USAID, forced out the chief economist who was brought in to oversee a more aggressive push toward efficiency." [00:00]

This approach, Ruiz argues, overlooks the nuanced debates surrounding foreign aid effectiveness and the intricate linkages between NGOs and federal programs. DOGE's strategy, focused primarily on headcount and budget cuts, may inadvertently target capable and essential personnel, undermining USAID's mission-critical functions.

Operational Challenges and Sloppiness within DOGE

A recurring theme in Ruiz's analysis is DOGE's operational inefficiencies. He points out persistent issues in contract management, data interpretation, and program evaluation, leading to questionable savings and misallocated resources.

"DOGE has been extremely sloppy about cutting contracts and about reporting the numbers. Most of the biggest ticket savings that is reported have been the result either of misreading federal contracting data or of killing contracts that were already dead." [00:00]

Ruiz expresses concern that these problems are not being adequately addressed, citing ongoing data parsing errors and inconsistent contract terminations as evidence of systemic sloppiness within DOGE.

DOGE’s Impact on State Capacity and Federal Institutions

The episode delves into broader implications of DOGE's actions on state capacity—the ability of government institutions to perform their functions effectively. Ruiz contrasts differing ideological perspectives on state capacity, noting that DOGE predominantly aligns with a right-leaning view focused on leaner organizational structures and empowered leaders.

"DOGE is pretty heavily relying on the right leaning definition of state capacity, leaner org structures with more powerful politically appointed leaders." [00:00]

However, Ruiz cautions that true state capacity may require a balance of both right and left-leaning principles, such as adequately compensating civil servants and reducing bureaucratic burdens to enhance institutional performance.

Future Considerations and Statecraft’s Role

Looking ahead, Ruiz outlines Statecraft's commitment to closely monitoring DOGE's developments. He emphasizes the podcast's role in providing historical and institutional context to better understand DOGE's actions and their ramifications.

"Our strength is not in breaking news reporting. We'll be following DOGE closely and aiming to give you special insight into it when we can." [00:00]

Ruiz also highlights upcoming legal battles, such as the Supreme Court's consideration of the President's impoundment authority, which could have significant implications for DOGE and federal budgeting processes.

Conclusion: A Balanced Perspective on DOGE

Ruiz concludes with a measured stance, acknowledging both the potential benefits and significant drawbacks of DOGE's current trajectory. He recognizes DOGE's efforts to modernize federal systems and curb wasteful spending but remains critical of its execution and strategic focus.

"I still find it hard to evaluate DOGE in total. There are things I hate and things I very much appreciate, but it still feels too early to pass judgment on whether DOGE is or will be a net positive or negative." [00:00]

Ultimately, Ruiz underscores the importance of continued observation and analysis to assess whether DOGE will enhance or hinder the effectiveness of U.S. federal institutions.

Notable Quotes with Timestamps

• "Effective altruists do this thing in their online posts where they specify the quote unquote epistemic status of a post, how confident they are about the claims they're making." – Santi Ruiz [00:00]

• "Elon has noticed this trend. He enjoys partaking in beef, and he's incentivized beefing as the modal form of Twitter engagement since taking over the company." – Santi Ruiz [00:00]

• "The Doge team has axed the most effective and efficient programs at USAID, forced out the chief economist who was brought in to oversee a more aggressive push toward efficiency." – Santi Ruiz [00:00]

• "DOGE has been extremely sloppy about cutting contracts and about reporting the numbers. Most of the biggest ticket savings that is reported have been the result either of misreading federal contracting data or of killing contracts that were already dead." – Santi Ruiz [00:00]

• "DOGE is pretty heavily relying on the right leaning definition of state capacity, leaner org structures with more powerful politically appointed leaders." – Santi Ruiz [00:00]

• "I still find it hard to evaluate DOGE in total. There are things I hate and things I very much appreciate, but it still feels too early to pass judgment on whether DOGE is or will be a net positive or negative." – Santi Ruiz [00:00]

Final Thoughts

Episode 50 of Statecraft offers a comprehensive and critical examination of DOGE, navigating through its operational dynamics, policy impacts, and the intricate interplay of political ideologies. Santi Ruiz provides listeners with a nuanced perspective, balancing skepticism with acknowledgment of DOGE's potential contributions to federal efficiency and modernization. As DOGE continues to evolve, Statecraft remains a valuable resource for understanding the complexities of this pivotal federal initiative.