Podcast Summary: Statecraft Episode – "How Cheaply Could We Build High-Speed Rail?"
Introduction In this episode of Statecraft, host Santi Ruiz engages in an in-depth conversation with Alon Levy, the lead author of the Transit Costs Project's report titled "How to Build High Speed Rail on the Northeast Corridor." Released on July 23, 2025, the report challenges existing high-cost estimates for developing high-speed rail (HSR) between major Northeast U.S. cities, proposing a more affordable alternative. The discussion delves into the technical feasibility, cost discrepancies, operational efficiencies, and political hurdles associated with implementing HSR in the densely populated Northeast Corridor.
Cost Analysis and Feasibility Alon Levy begins by addressing the significant cost difference between his team's proposal and that of Amtrak. While Amtrak estimates the project would require around $100 billion, Levy's team posits that it can be accomplished for approximately $17–$18 billion.
"The report argues that you could put this together for an infrastructure program totaling about $12 and a half billion dollars and new high speed train sets that are under $5 billion, you're looking at a $17, $18 billion project all told."
— Alon Levy [04:54]
Breaking Down the Cost Discrepancies Levy explains that his proposal leverages existing infrastructure and committed projects, thereby avoiding the costs associated with entirely new constructions. He contrasts building HSR on a greenfield site, like a Chicago to Cleveland line, with utilizing the pre-existing Northeast Corridor tracks. By focusing on areas with the most significant speed restrictions—primarily sharp curves—and selectively upgrading them, the project remains cost-effective.
"The Northeast Corridor has this problem where probably the best way to describe it is let's say that you have a line with a top speed of let's say 125 miles an hour... If those six curves are all within a mile of each other, there's one point in the middle of the line where you have six curves, each of which is 80 miles an hour."
— Alon Levy [07:30]
Comparing to the Northeast Corridor Commission’s Proposal Santi Ruiz highlights a 2021 proposal by the Northeast Corridor Commission, which estimated costs at $117 billion—seven times Levy’s figure. Levy attributes the inflated costs to unnecessary additions, such as extensive work on Penn Station and the expansion of tracks beyond what his proposal requires.
"They included a lot of things that are just plain stupid. I'm sorry."
— Alon Levy [10:03]
He further criticizes the Commission’s approach, emphasizing that existing infrastructure like Penn Station can handle increased traffic without extensive modifications.
"We actually ran some simulations on the tracks and it turns out that the Penn Station that exists with one asterisk is good enough, even if you run twice as much service."
— Alon Levy [10:47]
Operational Efficiency and Coordination A significant portion of the discussion centers on operational coordination. Levy argues that better synchronization between intercity and commuter trains can vastly improve efficiency without exorbitant costs. By meticulously planning timetables and infrastructure usage, slow segments can be optimized to minimize delays caused by faster trains waiting for slower ones.
"The philosophical difference is coordinating infrastructure and operations... When you ride a train, you don't care about the top speed, you don't care about the infrastructure... you care about the timetable."
— Alon Levy [15:40]
Maintenance and State of Good Repair Levy critiques the current approach to maintenance funding, highlighting the pitfalls of treating ongoing maintenance as capital expenses. He advocates for federal funding to handle maintenance separately, ensuring that operational efficiency isn't compromised by deferred maintenance.
"Outside funding. That would be federal funding... the federal government should demand that maintenance be funded on an ongoing basis locally or regionally or statewide."
— Alon Levy [24:07]
Political Challenges and State Buy-In Addressing the political economy, Levy acknowledges the inherent challenges in securing unanimous support across multiple states. However, he remains optimistic, pointing out that each state involved stands to gain specific benefits from the project. For instance, New Jersey would benefit from several infrastructure projects already on their wish list, ensuring mutual gains.
"The answer is that every state actually gets a pound of flesh on this."
— Alon Levy [43:19]
He also discusses potential compromises, such as the necessity for Virginia to switch trains in Washington, D.C., which, while inconvenient for some, offers significant speed improvements for the majority of users.
"The trains they're going to change to are significantly faster to New York. So you have a change and that is a real trade off."
— Alon Levy [47:08]
Critique of Past Projects and Implementation Challenges Levy critiques former Massachusetts Transit head Stephanie Pollock's handling of the Green Line extension project in Boston, citing cost overruns and poor project management as detrimental to rail initiatives. He emphasizes the importance of establishing specialized institutions for project management, drawing parallels with successful models in Paris and Germany.
"What annoys me about her, I guess, is that she didn't learn... Instead, she's defending that and defending worse decisions."
— Alon Levy [50:51]
Conclusion The episode concludes with Levy reiterating that the existing power structures, particularly within the Federal Railroad Administration (FRA), possess the authority to mandate the necessary coordination and infrastructural enhancements. By adopting a meticulous, coordinated approach that balances technical efficiency with political pragmatism, the Northeast Corridor's high-speed rail project can be realized affordably and effectively.
"It is something where the FRA could be prioritizing... This is not something that was made on the spot."
— Alon Levy [54:39]
Key Takeaways
- Alon Levy's proposal offers a significantly more affordable high-speed rail solution for the Northeast Corridor by optimizing existing infrastructure and focusing on essential upgrades.
- The major cost discrepancies between his proposal and others like Amtrak's stem from unnecessary expansions and lack of operational coordination.
- Effective maintenance funding and operational synchronization are crucial for achieving reliability and efficiency in the rail system.
- Political consensus across multiple states is challenging but achievable, as each state benefits uniquely from the project.
- Learning from past project mismanagement is essential to avoid repeating costly mistakes and to ensure successful implementation.
Notable Quotes
"Diagnosis is always easier than prescription in policy."
— Santi Ruiz [02:22]
"Nothing that firing Stephanie Pollock and hiring an actually competent person wouldn't fix."
— Alon Levy [47:37]
"No suggestion for reform is more common than what we need is more coordination."
— Jen, referenced by Santi Ruiz [38:05]
Final Thoughts This episode provides a comprehensive analysis of the potential for high-speed rail development in the Northeast Corridor, challenging prevailing notions of prohibitive costs and highlighting avenues for cost-effective, efficient implementation. Alon Levy's insights underscore the importance of technical precision, operational coordination, and political collaboration in transforming the region's transportation infrastructure.