Statecraft Podcast Episode Summary

Episode: Is the Senate Fixing Housing Policy?
Host: Santi Ruiz
Guests:

• Will Poff-Webster, Legislative Counsel to Sen. Brian Schatz (D-HI) – "inside guy"
• Alex Armlovich, Senior Housing Policy Analyst, Niskanen Center – "outside advocate"
• Brian Potter, Senior Infrastructure Fellow, IFP; Construction Physics newsletter – "industry and construction expert"
  Date: October 16, 2025
  Main Topic: The Senate Banking, Housing & Urban Affairs Committee’s bipartisan "Road to Housing" Act, a sweeping bill intended to address the U.S. housing shortage and affordability crisis.

Episode Overview

This episode delves into the origins, content, and prospects of the "Road to Housing" Act—passed unanimously out of committee, and co-sponsored by Sen. Tim Scott (R) and Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D). Santi Ruiz explores how rare, substantive, and bipartisan policy comes together, what’s in the bill, why federal action on housing matters, and which elements could most impact housing affordability.

1. Why Is Housing a National Issue?

[04:38–11:44]

Expanding From Coastal Crisis to National Concern

• Brian Potter [04:38]: "These big, expensive metro areas are really huge drivers of economic growth… But a lot of cities are now kind of following the path of these big expensive metros. Atlanta, historically cheap, now ramped up in price… So the problem that was maybe once concentrated to these really expensive coastal cities is becoming more universal."
• Will Poff-Webster [05:23]: Post-COVID migration has nationalized the scarcity—"most metropolitan areas... now have a housing shortage."
• Alex Armlovich [06:21]: Points to the “wedge” between construction costs and sale/rental prices as the signal of damaging local zoning. "You have a place that has low incomes and high measured housing cost burdens, but houses are not sold for more than it costs to build… That’s a problem of people having low incomes, not a land use regulation problem."
• Will [07:51]: References Yoni Applebaum’s Stuck: Americans now move to reduce living costs, not to pursue opportunity, entrenching poverty.
• Alex [09:40]: Explains why tight markets raise homelessness even among middle-class or housed families—“In tight markets like NY or SF, even middle-class people often can’t offer a spare couch to a struggling relative. Family networks lose their buffer ability.”

Dual Crises: Shortage vs. Affordability

• Will [10:39]: "We talk about a 'housing crisis', but… there’s an affordability crisis and a housing shortage." In high-cost metros, even middle-income people cannot buy without subsidies.
• Examples of 'doing well': Minneapolis and Austin, where policy reforms boosted supply and market affordability.
  • Will [12:01]: "Minneapolis, Austin… are seeing significant affordability… That’s been a real wake-up call to people on the left that a big role for exclusionary zoning here and causing this problem. And places like Minneapolis… reformed it are seeing the benefits."

2. Can the Federal Government Fix Local Housing Policy?

[12:58–23:52]

The Subsidiarity Principle and State/Federal Leverage

• Alex [13:32]: "Subsidiarity"—decisions should be made locally unless costs and benefits spill over city lines. Metro areas often act as a single market, so localities have incentives to block growth, creating a regional collective action problem.
• Will [16:11]: Local politicians face intense “not-in-my-backyard” (NIMBY) pressure; at the state or federal level, officials see the benefits of growth and are less boxed in.
• Will [19:23]: "Federal government has a lot of funding streams… expertise in what works." The federal government set the stage for today’s restrictive codes with the 1920s Hoover-era model zoning codes.

Federal Tools: Incentives, Technical Assistance, Program Reform

• Will [21:58]: Federal government can provide technical help, funding/financing, and nudge state/local governments.
  • "It’s… a mix of technical assistance, funding, some financing mechanisms… also program reform… There’s great stuff in this bill for that as well: disaster recovery, rural housing, homelessness funding…"

3. Deep Dive: Key Elements in the Road to Housing Act

[22:12–47:26]

A. Technical Assistance and Regulatory Reform

• Alex [23:01]: The Housing Supply Frameworks Act—convenes a national commission to rewrite model zoning codes for modern best practices, both for HUD internal guidance and for localities.
• Alex [24:18]: "It will shock you… how many states are still using Herbert Hoover’s State Zoning Enabling Act… dozens still using it today."

B. Funding and Incentives

• Build NOW Act:
  • Will [26:10]: Takes 10% of Community Development Block Grant (CDBG) funds and redistributes from low-housing-growth to high-housing-growth jurisdictions. "If you build more than average, you get a bonus..."
• Build More Housing Near Transit Act:
  • Rewards jurisdictions that upzone and streamline permitting near federally-funded transit projects.
  • Will [26:10]: "What the Build More Housing Near Transit Act does is… if you are changing your zoning… to make it easier to build more housing around a new transit station, then you get a significant boost in your federal funding."
• Innovation Fund:
  • $200M/year for outcomes-based grants to localities demonstrating housing supply growth—a priority for Democrats.
  • Will [30:38]: "It can go to matching funds for clean water and sewer programs so local governments can tell concerned neighbors that costs of growth are covered."

C. Federal Voucher/Financing Fixes and Subsidies

• Qualified Mortgage Rule for Small-Dollar Loans:
  • Adjusts rules to make mortgages for lower-priced homes more viable—important in inexpensive areas and for small units like ADUs.
    • Alex [33:27]: "Small dollar mortgages aren’t really made all that much anymore… If the cost of underwriting makes it uneconomic… then there’s a certain mortgage size that pencils."
• FHA Title I Loan Limits:
  • Raises loan limits for manufactured homes; broadens eligible uses (now covers detached ADUs).
  • Alex [36:07]: "Previously, you could use [Title I loans] for turning your attic or basement into an ADU… [now] detached ADUs are eligible. That’s a nice little fix."
• Manufactured Housing ‘Chassis’ Reform:
  • Brian [38:13]: Current code requires a costly steel chassis under HUD-code homes—"maybe 10–15% of the entire house cost." Ending the mandate could cut $5–10K per unit.
  • Alex [40:37]: Plus, this interacts with new rules enabling 4-unit HUD-code dwellings. "Being able to remove these chassis requirements… gets really interesting… and now it goes back to the market."
• Section 8 Voucher Program Streamlining:
  • Includes remote inspections, pre-inspection lists, and paperwork reduction—expected to reduce lease-up failure rates.
    • Alex [44:55]: "More than half of vouchers fail to be leased up within 90 days… this inspection thing’s a real barrier. So I am excited about [the streamlining provisions]."

4. Regulatory Modernization: NEPA and More

[56:19–58:40]

• Will, Brian, and Alex: NEPA (National Environmental Policy Act) reforms reduce review delays for infill or multi-family housing tied to federal funds, especially for FHA multifamily loans.
  • Alex [58:05]: Striking that only FHA multifamily loans require burdensome NEPA review. "Fannie and Freddie… aren’t subject to NEPA… Only FHA multifamily is subjected to this. Why are we doing this?"

5. Political Strategy and Path to Unanimity

[49:51–55:52]

• Will [50:06]: Ground shifted: "Five or 10 years ago… people thought [housing] was a finance problem… Now… it doesn’t matter how much money you throw at it, you can’t solve the problem if you’re subsidizing demand and constraining supply." Deregulation became a common cause for Rs—pro-market—and Ds—pro-affordability.

• Process for bipartisanship: "Everyone had a priority they wanted in a big bill… They just took all the bipartisan ones… and paired them together. Suddenly you had a bill where everyone… had priorities included."

• Alex [55:06]: "Getting to know" has shifted to "getting to yes"—leadership/staff changes drove new momentum. "When Warren became ranking member… everything kind of changed… She picks pro-housing people. And everything kind of changed from getting to no to getting to yes."

6. Prospects for Passage

[59:44–62:22]

• Will [60:33]: Gives odds: "50/50, but higher likelihood over a longer time horizon."
• Alex [62:21]: "20% chance the bill as it is is law by the end of next year, but significant chunks of it passing in some form… I am optimistic."

7. The Role of Policy Advocates and Think Tanks

[62:22–68:13]

• Alex [63:07]: "A great think tank can grease the tectonic plates of history… We provide correct information to people… If them not knowing the thing that we can inform them of changes their actions, then we’ve made a real impact."
• Brian [64:55]: Surfacing obscure or technical industry knowledge for policymakers is crucial. Small tweaks (e.g., one obscure provision in the 1970s National Energy Act—PURPA) can have huge effects.
• Will [67:17]: Typical complaint: think tanks don’t do the 'last mile.' Here, "this bill is a great counterexample" where outside expertise shaped real-world provisions.

8. Notable Quotes & Fun Moments

• Brian Potter’s dry humor [02:17]: "The moral arc of the universe is long, but it bends towards justice. So good to finally be here."
• On bill naming [02:50]:
  • Will: "8 out of 10 [AI-generated acronyms] are bad, but because 2 out of 10 are good, it is not an uncommon way to get a bill title these days. One of the funny parts… you'll see a bill title that's something that makes you think it's about ocean science and then it's actually a housing bill…"
• Santi (re: technical assistance) [22:12]: “There’s things that are in my DC vocabulary that are just in nobody else’s… when you say technical assistance, what does that mean?”
• Alex on think tank work [63:07]: "We can help structural forces in society slide in maybe different directions, but certainly different paces… a think tank is not an army."
• Brian’s energy policy aside [65:55]: Outlines how the obscure PURPA provision in the 1970s National Energy Act catalyzed renewables.

9. Timestamps for Key Segments

• [00:04] - Introduction; episode framing
• [02:23] - The Congressional acronym game
• [04:38] - Why the housing crisis is now a national issue
• [13:32] - Why local policy can’t solve the problem alone
• [19:23] - The historic role of federal zoning models
• [22:12] - Technical assistance explained
• [26:06] - "Build NOW" Act and funding incentives
• [33:27] - Small-dollar mortgage reform discussion
• [37:33] - Manufactured housing regulations / chassis
• [43:07] - Panelists' favorite bill provisions
• [44:55] - Section 8 streamlining impact
• [49:51] - Why and how did this bill go bipartisan?
• [56:19] - NEPA reform for housing
• [59:44] - Odds of bill passage
• [62:22] - Do think tanks matter?

10. Key Takeaways

• The housing shortage and affordability crisis has spread from a regional concern to a full-scale national emergency, including mid-sized and smaller metros.
• Federal intervention is seen as necessary, both for its resources and its ability to overcome local collective-action failures.
• The Road to Housing Act uses a mixture of technical assistance, funding realignment, incentives tied to housing growth, and long-overdue regulatory updates (including on manufactured housing and environmental reviews).
• The bill’s bipartisan passage was enabled partly by generational turnover among staff and members, a shifting crisis narrative, and advocates’ effort to link technical ideas to actionable policy.
• While panelists note much of the impact is still to be tested—and the full bill faces tough odds—many of its provisions have strong bipartisan and bicameral support, suggesting meaningful pieces may become law.
• The “hidden hand” of policy advocacy (from data transparency to detailed knowledge of construction and finance) makes a decisive difference only when political context aligns—highlighting the contingency of substantive reform.

Listen to the full episode (ad and intro/outro promos skipped) for an in-depth education on how U.S. housing policy is trying to change, and how lawmaking actually happens.