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Tracy V. Wilson
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Holly Fry
Welcome to Stuff youf Missed in History Class, a production of Iheartra. Hello and welcome to the podcast. I'm Holly Fry.
Tracy V. Wilson
And I'm Tracy V. Wilson.
Holly Fry
So today's subject is a person who's been on my list for a minute. Not a really commonly known name, but whose work is probably impacting the life of every single person listening in one way or another. He did this work nearly 400 years ago, but it really changed the way that people perceived population and mortality by measuring it, because that changes the outcome. We are talking about John Graunt, who was a shopkeeper in London who through both personal connections and a desire to just kind of follow his own curiosity, which I love to a rather grand result, became very well respected among the city's most revered intellectuals. And his work gave rise to the field of demography and epidemiology. And his work could be categorized as statistical analysis, although the word statistics didn't even exist for another hundred years after he died. But that's who we're talking about today.
Tracy V. Wilson
So John Graunt was born April 24, 1620 in London, England to Henry and Mary Graunt, who raised John and their other children. There may have been seven other children, raised them all as Puritans. At the end of the 17th century, antiquarian and philosopher John Aubrey included Graunt in his book Brief Lives, which covered notable 17th century figures. And he quite charmingly describes the start of Grant's life this way. Quote, was born 24D Aprilis at the Seven Stars in Burton Lane, London, in the parish of St Michael's Cornhill, an hour before 8 o' clock on a Monday morning. The sign being in the 9 degree of Gemini that day at 12 o'. Clock, Anno Domino 1620.
Holly Fry
Yeah, that Aubrey account we'll discuss a good bit throughout this journey, but reading it is very fun. Cause it is, you know, old timey language. But also, I don't know, he just has a flair for phrasing that makes me chuckle.
Tracy V. Wilson
I like that the date of his birth was in Latin. The rest of it's not Latin, but
Holly Fry
just that part that's kind of how all of Brief Lives go. There's a little Latin sprinkled throughout for insouciant flair. Although today Graunt is pretty much always mentioned as being a statistician or something related. That is very far from where he started. This is going to get into Holly pedantry just a little, so bear with me. She is described as a draper in some accounts and a haberdasher in others. These are similar roles, but they're actually different. A draper would have sold fabric for garment construction, whereas a haberdasher would have sold sewing notions. So things like thread, buttons, et cetera. This is of course also different from the way the word haberdasher is used today in North America, where it usually means somebody who sells menswear. In this case, this would not have been a menswear specific enterprise. So Graunt, we know, would have been selling sewing supplies of some type intended for garment construction, but it's not 100% clear if it was fabric or notions. The Aubrey biography calls him a haberdasher, noting he was, quote, haberdasher of small wares, but was free of the Drapers Company. That small amount of words just confuses things more because haberdashers and drapers in London at this time already had completely separate guilds.
Tracy V. Wilson
However, Aubrey seems to have been incorrect about Grant's guild status. John's father, Henry Grant, was a member of the Worshipful Company of Drapers, having been admitted in 1614 and John apprenticed with his father. According to Henry Connor, writing for the Journal of medical biography, in 2022, John Grant, quote, was admitted by patrimony to the freedom of the drapers company when 21 and granted delivery when 38. So for context, freedom admission indicates that a tradesperson is set on the track to becoming a full member and then when they are granted livery, they have met certain requirements and submitted a formal application. So it does appear that Grant was a full member in the Drapers Guild.
Holly Fry
Yeah, that is not a haberdasher. Tracey also pointed out that that wording of Aubrey's could be confusing and mean that he was a freeman within the Drapers Company, but it doesn't seem like that's what he's getting at. I could be wrong in my interpretation. Uh, we do know that Gronk got married the same year that he was admitted to the Drapers Guild as a full member. So he married a 17 year old named Mary Scott. We know very little about their marriage, although according to Aubrey, they had two children who lived to adulthood. A son and a daughter and two other kids who died in infancy. Those children were also daughters. The only details we know about the surviving children also come from that Aubrey biography, so a little bit difficult to substantiate. He states that their son died as an adult in Persia and that the daughter became a nun grunt, became very
Tracy V. Wilson
active in his community and served in a number of civic roles, including on London's Common Council. In his later years, he was also active in infrastructure projects, like developing a canal that brought water into the city. As part of his standing as a citizen and a community leader, Graunt was also a member of London's trained bands. This was a militia made up of homeowners within the city that served as a defense force serving under the Lord Mayor. Graunt was often addressed as captain in various accounts of his life, suggesting he attained that rank in the militia. Aubrey, who knew Graunt and was his friend, describes him as a man who was well liked, pleasant and smart.
Holly Fry
In addition to John Aubrey, a wide array of impressive friends clustered around Graunt and many of them are well known today. Samuel Pepys mentions Graunt in his diaries, noting on April 20, 1663, so to my office the remaining part of the morning till towards noon, and then to Mr. Graunt's. There saw his prints which he showed me, and indeed are the best collection of any things almost that ever I saw there being the prints of most of the greatest houses, churches and antiquities in Italy and France, and Brave Cutts, I had not time to look them over as I ought, and which I will take time hereafter to do, and therefore left them and home to dinner.
Tracy V. Wilson
He became friendly with Sir Benjamin Rudyard, who was a poet and a politician in Parliament. Painter John Hales was another friend who would come to be known for his portraits of Lady Diana Russell, Duchess of Bedford, Lady Anne Russell, Countess of Bedford, and Samuel Pepys, and several members of Pepys's family. Another artist friend was Samuel Cooper, considered to be maybe the best portrait miniature painter of the 1600s. But the most well known of Graunt's friends was William Petty. Petty, who was three years younger than Graunt, was a man of many interests and abilities. He was a doctor, a professor of both anatomy and music, and a surveyor. And alongside his good friend John Graunt, he became interested in using available data to gain insight into the world around him. But before that, the two men were already very close. Grant had helped Petty get his music professorship at Gresham College. Petty gave Grant his power of attorney. In 1660, they purchased property together on Lothbury street, which is a short street in London that was popular with professionals. This land is now occupied by the bank of England. Grant was through various groups and friendships tied to a lot of the city's intellectuals and leaders.
Holly Fry
Coming up, we will talk about how Graunt's own curiosity led him to start looking at death statistics. But first we will pause for a sponsor break.
Tracy V. Wilson
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Holly Fry
Hey, this is Robert from the Stuff to Blow youw Mind podcast. Joe and I are both lifelong Star wars fans, so we're celebrating May 4th with a brand new week of fun, thought provoking Star wars related episodes. Join us as we tackle science and culture topics from a galaxy far such as the biology of tauntauns and wampas on the ice planet Hoth, or the practicality and corporate business sense of the Sith Rule of 2. Listen to Stuff to Blow youw Mind on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts. For some reason, which remains unclear, Graunt became really interested in London's death records. They would have been commonly available, and as a merchant, information about the shifts in the city's population would have been important to John Graunt and to others. These accounts of the deaths in the city have their own interesting story, so we're going to jump backwards a little bit to the 1520s. Starting in 1527, the bills of mortality, which were simply lists of the dead, began to be collected in London. The oldest surviving bill of mortality that we know of is from 1532, and the gathering of this information was done, for the most part by elderly women of the various parishes of the city. They were called searchers. When someone died, a loud bell was rung to summon the searchers, and a pair of them would go to the house where the bell had come from to observe the body. They would note each death, collect those names into lists which were submitted to the parish clerks who then entered them into the official record and also publish the list. The names were not included in the list. The publicly Available records normally listed the parish and just the number of deaths. And initially this job was really just to determine if people had died of the plague so that they could track that. But over time, the searchers started to include causes of death other than the plague, even though they didn't really have medical training. So they were kind of going on a combo of common sense and vibes. Yeah.
Tracy V. Wilson
If I remember correctly, we talked about these searchers in our episode on the. On rickets.
Holly Fry
Yes, Rickets will come up later.
Tracy V. Wilson
Yeah, it was one of the reasons that it was like we. We have these references to rickets in these. In these lists, but we don't really know for sure if that was actually rickets. So for a long time these lists were submitted on kind of a random basis. But toward the end of the 16th century, in 1592, a set schedule was established for their regular submission. At the time, the cause of death also started to be recorded with a summary count of how many people in a given parish died from it. This was because London experienced a high death rate starting that year, as the city struggled through a plague outbreak that shut down the theaters and the public houses. When the plague began, the city had an estimated 150,000 people and roughly 10% of the population died during this outbreak. But once death numbers started to drop, the bills of mortality became less frequent. Over time, they did add in christenings and they tracked population growth to surviving infants.
Holly Fry
Then another plague hit the city in 1603, just as James VI of Scotland was taking on the additional title of James I of England and Ireland. And the newly established monarch, in an effort to get the city through this plague crisis, put out a book of orders regarding how var aspects of the plague were to be dealt with. Some of this we're going to talk about on Friday. And he reinstated a regular schedule for the bills of mortality. Under the new order, searchers had to submit their lists on Tuesdays and on Thursday mornings. The complete lists were made available to the public, with copies available for a penny. Or people could get an annual subscription for four pennies, which seems like a great deal. There was also an annual report made that compiled the entire year's data that was always published on the Thursday before Christmas every year. It wasn't until 1629 that the report separated out deaths by male and female members of the population.
Tracy V. Wilson
So for some example, numbers, the report for all of 1625 noted that the parish of Bennett's Grace Church had 48 deaths, 16 from plague. The parish of Martins at Ludgate had 254 deaths, 164 from plague, etc. The 1632 report that compiled the numbers by cause of death listed 628 deaths from old age, 1797 from consumption, 38 executions, of which 13 were pressed to death, 38 from purples and spotted fever, and six as, quote, dead in the street and starved. There are, of course, more entries in both of these sample lists as well as other lists, but this gives just a sense of how basic these numbers were. And in addition to that simplicity, there was also a question regarding the accuracy of the numbers.
Holly Fry
Yeah, we'll talk about that a bit more. When Grot decided that he wanted to make an earnest study of this material, he only worked with the consistently published list from late 1603 on. There might actually be a minor bit of scandal regarding his work with these records. According to Robert Cargan, writing for the Journal of the History of Medicine and allied sciences in 1963, quote, it is unknown how the publication of the bills fared under the Commonwealth. The parish clerks registers before 1664 are missing. Having been loaned to Grant for his studies and never returned. I will say there is also a chunk kind of in the middle of that 1603 to 1660 when he was working, that he discarded because there was some inconsistency and irregularity in it. But in 1662, Graunt published his assessment of all of this information, of which there's a lot we read a tiny smattering, but like pages and pages and pages of lists. The book that he created out of all of this was Natural and Political Observations Made upon the Bills of Mortality. It was the only book he ever published, but it became the foundation of a really significant shift in the way that people thought about population statistics.
Tracy V. Wilson
The inspiration for this effort has been a matter of debate for centuries. Often William Petty is credited with giving Grant the idea, but every source that says so seems to be pulling from that John Aubrey biography, which we know might not always be accurate. Graunt himself gave the reason. He started examining all the data in the preface to his book, quote, having been born and bred in the City of London, and having always observed that most of them who constantly took in the weekly bills of mortality made little other use of them than to look at the foot, how the burials increased or decreased, and among the casualties, what had happened rare and extraordinary in the week of the current. So they might take the same as a text to talk about in the next company and withal in the plague time, how the sickness increased or decreased that so the rich might judge of the necessity of their removal, and tradesmen might conjecture what doings they were like to have in their respective dealings. Now I thought that the wisdom of our city had certainly designed the laudable practice of taking and distributing these accomplices for other and greater uses than those above mentioned, or at least that some other uses might be made of them. And thereupon I, casting mine eye upon so many of the general bills as next came to hand, I found encouragement from them to look out all the bills I could, and to be short, to furnish myself with as much matter of that kind, even as the hall of the parish clerks could afford me the which when I had reduced into tables, so as to have a view of the whole together, in order to the more ready comparing of one year, season, parish, or other division of the city with another.
Holly Fry
So to translate that somewhat stilted and run on passage which Tracy just good naturedly worked her way through, Graunt realizes even people who read those reports every week were kind of just doing so to look at the death totals so that they'd have something to talk about or to see if they should get out of town, because things were getting dire with something. He had thought that the city government might be using that information in some way, but realized no one was really tracking the data in ways that might show patterns or change over time, so he just decided to do that himself. He does not mention his friend Sir William Petty giving him the idea, or in fact mention him at all. In the dedication of the book, Grant states that quote now having I know not by what accident engaged my thoughts upon the bills of mortality, I have presumed to sacrifice these my small but first published labors unto your Lordship. We're going to talk about who that dedication is addressed to in a bit, but the important thing is that Graunt characterizes his interest in the bills as an accident that he doesn't even remember.
Tracy V. Wilson
Graunt also made it clear in his writing that he didn't want to go through this exercise if it was not actually helpful in some way. Quote Moreover, finding some truths and not commonly believed opinions to arise from my meditations upon these neglected papers, I proceeded further to consider what benefit the knowledge of the fame would bring to the world, that I might not engage myself in idle and useless speculations, but present the world with some real fruit from those airy blossoms. So Graunt really did want there to be some real world benefit from this whole exercise.
Holly Fry
And Grot lays out some of the Accuracy problems that we mentioned a few moments ago in his writing, noting that the searchers who collected this information may be, quote, perhaps ignorant and careless in their work, which apparently was a known problem. There was not really a system of fact checking their numbers or what information they included in their reports. Additionally, Graunt notes that these women would sometimes take favors or bribes to record a cause of death as a less embarrassing or scandalous one than the deceased's family may have found it. A significant example for this was syphilis that was recorded in the bills under the title French pox. But according to Grant, the searchers, after, quote, the mist of a cup of ale and the bribe of a 2 gro fee, would record that death instead as consumption.
Tracy V. Wilson
Another problem was that the way these numbers were laid out left a lot of information to just be assumed or interpreted. Grant noted that when a person was said to have died of old age, it doesn't give information regarding what that age was or whether there may have been some specific condition involved. There are also no specifics of what qualifies a child to be categorized as an infant. But Grant seems to have come to the conclusion that the records submitted by the searchers are probably relatively accurate in terms of cause of death because he believes they consulted physicians and also used their own judgment. But he also notes that not all diseases present in obvious ways, so sudden deaths might be difficult to report accurately regarding their cause. He lays all this out to explain the way he's approaching these numbers for comparisons. He's clear that there are places where he has to operate on assumption and that he welcomes criticism.
Holly Fry
Yeah, I, I was reading a modern take on some of it, and they put it very gingerly by saying, like, he does a bit too much smoothing at times.
Tracy V. Wilson
And I was like, that's a perfect
Holly Fry
way to put it. We are going to get into the various conclusions that Grant drew from analyzing the bills of mortality as well as talk about the later part of his life. And we'll do that after we hear from the sponsors that keep the show going. In his writing, John Graunt draws some conclusions outside of just crunching numbers, some of which are debatable, but show that he is thinking about ways of applying all of this information. For instance, he notes that there are very few deaths from starvation, but that London has a lot of people panhandling and begging for food. And he wonders, quote, that it were better to maintain all beggars at the public charge, though earning nothing, than to let them beg about the streets, and that employing them without discretion may do more harm than good. He doesn't elaborate, so it's unclear if he means to make these people wards of the state or provide for them in some other way. But he's basically saying, like, you can't just hire them into jobs because they might not know what they're doing and it could cause a lot of problems. He also noted that rickets, as Traci mentioned earlier, had risen over the years, seemingly popping up out of nowhere, asking in his work, quote, now the question is whether that disease did first appear about that time, or whether a disease which had been long before, did then first receive its name. Graunt then identified other diseases like liver grown, that were dropping off the list in frequency, and that had probably been rickets before that disease had been better understood and more consistently diagnosed.
Tracy V. Wilson
There were a number of ways in which the way John Graunt looked at the numbers in the bills of mortality, that contradicted a lot of commonly held beliefs. If you had asked Most Londoners in 1660 how the population was divided between men and women, most probably would have told you there were three women to every man. This is something that was routinely stated. But when Graunt actually looked at the numbers of male and female babies born, combined with the infant mortality rates, he discovered that more male babies than female babies were born. They also had a higher mortality rate, and that when comparing that information to adult deaths, the population was actually divided almost evenly, but slightly skewed higher in men in the country, with 16 men to every 15 women. In the city proper, there were 13 women for every 14 men.
Holly Fry
He also calculated the population of London, creating a piece of data that had been elusive for a long time due to rudimentary reporting practices. There were rumors that he talks about that there were as many as 2 million people in London, and he didn't think that was right. So he really wanted to focus on this. Based on available death and household numbers, which were not comprehensive for the entire city, but were in some areas, Graunt calculated that for every 11 families in London, there were three deaths per year. Using those numbers, he looked at the total average of deaths per year in the city according to the bills of mortality. That was 13,000. And then using those numbers, he could calculate that there were 46,000, 667 households in the city. He used the assumption of eight members per household based on averages plus the rate of population increase through average number of people moving into the city to land at a total of 384,000 people, 199,112 male, 184,886 female. He then cross checked his own work by using different numbers from the table to calculate the population in multiple different ways.
Tracy V. Wilson
He also noted that death rates were higher in the city than in the more rural parishes, with more people per 100 surviving past the age of 70 in the country. This led him to conclude that the country was, quote, more healthful than the city. His research noted that chronic diseases tended to have stable rates of death, whereas contagious diseases had greater fluctuation by season and location. As for the city being a more dangerous place, Graunt identified one of the big problems which was overcrowding. He wrote, quote, london, the metropolis of England, is perhaps head too big for the body and possibly too strong, that this head grows three times as fast as the body unto which it belongs, that is, it doubles its people. And a third part of the time. He notes that the streets were not big or stable enough for the many carriages that passed through them, and that the way the city had been organized in its earlier years just did not suit its needs anymore.
Holly Fry
Yeah, at this point it was still very much laid out in its medieval form and it was becoming like it was just on the cusp of getting into industrialization and like I was not cutting it. He also came up with a life table that showed the statistics of deaths based on age over time. This is something that is like the foundation of demography. And though these exact numbers aren't used all the time, the concept is this was very basic. It gave the information that out of 100 births, which he called quick conceptions, 36 people will have died before the age of 6, then 24 more in the decade that follows, 15 more in the decade after that, and so on and so on. In his estimation, only one could reasonably be expected to survive to the age of 76. But though this was interesting and he developed a distribution formula to arrive at these numbers, it was also a good bit of guesswork. It was in reference to this that I saw somewhere in. Right, like he did a bit too much smoothing. He also noted that this isn't a precise model, but that the numbers following are practically near enough to the truth. Men do not die in exact proportion nor in fractions. Working from that table, he described the population in percentages, stating that, quote, it follows also that of all which have been conceived, there are now alive 40% above 16 years old, 25 above 26 years old, etc.
Tracy V. Wilson
Grant's book Relaying all this information and the ways he had used the basic bills of mortality to extrapolate a numerical assessment of London was only 97 pages long, but it had a massive impact. He submitted 50 copies of his book to the Royal Society for members to read. He had also dedicated the book to the President of the Royal Society, Sir Robert Moray, which was a really astute move. Physician Dr. Daniel Whistler nominated Graunt for membership in the Society. This was a pretty unusual situation and it shows just how important the Society thought his work was. Graunt wasn't a scientist and he wasn't from the aristocracy. He was a tradesman who hadn't attended a university, so not at all the kind of person who was extremely expected to be a member of the Royal Society. But the Royal Society was also quite new, having been founded in 1660, so it wasn't as though his nomination broke decades of tradition. King Charles II supported his application and made a statement that if the Royal Society found any more tradesmen like Graunt, they should admit them as well. Graunt was indeed made a Fellow. He published several editions in the following years, updating the tables each time as he learned new information that led to refined numbers. He notated the ways he had estimated things incorrectly in earlier versions, like supposing that households had an average of eight people when five was really more accurate.
Holly Fry
Because of all of this work, Graunt is frequently called the father of demography. So anytime someone is referencing demographics, they're referencing his work at least indirectly. Other prominent thinkers of Grant's day were influenced by his work and continued it or adapted it into their own fields. France began its own similar record keeping after Graunt's work became known. And his friend Sir William Petty used the example Grant had set to start looking at the ways that death related to economic loss within a community. He published his work Essays in Political Arithmetic and Political Survey or Anatomy of Ireland in 1672, after building on the work that Graunt had done in London. That work launched a wave of probability mathematics, and while its flaws are recognized, the concepts of it are still in use today.
Tracy V. Wilson
Just three years after Graunt's book was first published, London experienced a surge in plague, which is commonly known as the great plague of 1665. Grant's updated numbers regarding the size of the population that year, which he thought maxed out at 460,000, is one of the only ways to really know today just how impactful the death toll was. That is usually estimated to be around a hundred thousand people over the Course of a year and a half in
Holly Fry
1666, London experienced the Great Fire and Graunt was hit very hard by it. His house and his shop burned down. Petty helped finance the rebuilding of Grant's home, but he never really financially recovered and he had to sell his remaining property, some of it too Petty and. And he may have declared bankruptcy. This is another thing that the Aubrey account says, but there's no documentation to back it up. However, a lot of documents were destroyed in that fire and Graunt's work is some of the only way that we know about numbers in London at the time because everything else burned. But Graunt and Petty started to have some disagreements over money that really shifted the dynamic of their friendship at this time.
Tracy V. Wilson
During this time of uncertainty, Graunt became a Roman Catholic. And this was an unusual and unpopular move during this time in England. Refusing to attend Anglican services was considered a statutory offense. The conversion really took a toll on what was left of his friendship with Petty. Petty wrote to Grant in January of 1673, quote, as for differences in religion, you have done amiss in the sundry particulars which I need not mention because yourself may easily conjecture my meanings. However, we leave these things to God and be mindful of what is the sum of all religion and of what is and ever was true religion all the world over. Petty also confided in a letter to a friend soon after, quote, captain Grant is now an open and zealous champion for potpourri, wherefore I have not so much intimacy with him as formerly.
Holly Fry
We mentioned earlier in the episode that Graunt was part of an infrastructure project that brought water into the city. That work was done by the New River Company, at which Graunt was in a managerial position. His Catholicism caused so many problems and was so despised by many Londoners that a rumor started that he had been perhaps somehow to blame for the Great Fire and that he had prevented water from reaching the city to douse the flames as part of being in this role. And this actually got him in legal trouble. Although he was ultimately found to have done no such thing. He actually was not in that managerial position until after the fire had taken place. Although his innocence on that matter had been proven, his status as a Catholic continued to isolate him professionally and socially. He was called before the court twice on the charge of recusancy, failing to attend Anglican Church, and he pled not guilty. His case was scheduled for trial and if he was found guilty, his property would be seized by the Crown.
Tracy V. Wilson
But that trial never happened. In the early 1670s, Grant developed liver disease. He died on April 18, 1764, before his trial date. His cause of death is given as jaundice. He was buried at St Dunstan's Church in Fleet Street. Although their relationship had suffered, Petty attended his funeral and was deeply upset. Petty took care of Grant's widow, Mary, financially in the years after this.
Holly Fry
And now today we have actuaries.
Tracy V. Wilson
Yeah.
Holly Fry
Thanks, John Graunt.
Tracy V. Wilson
John Grant is mentioned in the episode that you wrote about actuarial science.
Holly Fry
Yes. Listen, we. We love all of the actuaries.
Tracy V. Wilson
We love it.
Holly Fry
I have a very fun listener mail.
Tracy V. Wilson
Oh, yay.
Holly Fry
Which also mentions and shares flowers. We'll get to it. This is from our listener Jamie, who writes. Hi, Holly and Tracy. I just finished your episode on James Braid and wanted to share my experience with hypnotism. After graduating my high school. At a party where, among other things, a hypnotist performed, I was chosen as one of the participants. It was an interesting experience. I remember a few things. It was more than a few years ago now for me. I was aware the whole time, but I just did exactly what I thought. Like, when we were told it was very cold, I cuddled to the person next to me. I was told to give a different name every time the hypnotist asked my name. And it was going good until he asked my name after someone else's who had responded Sam. My brain supplied the same name. But then I thought, I can't be Sam.
Tracy V. Wilson
He is.
Holly Fry
And so I said, samantha. My hesitation obviously showed that I was coming out of it, so that was the end of my part. While I was open to suggestion, I also couldn't overcome my own strongly held beliefs. I can't imagine how the woman whose neck was set to one side was able to move it through hypnotism. Listen, me either. Anyway, as a reward for reading through all that, please enjoy these flowers. In Pella, Iowa, there is a tulip festival. The town plants thousands of different kinds of tulips, and driving a few hours to see them in May is much easier than flying to Amsterdam. I have never seen so many different kinds, and I hope you enjoy them. Thanks for all you do. I truly appreciate your show and the hard work you put into it. And there are beautiful pictures of tulips. There are some pink ones, some orange ones, some yellow ones, and some that look black, which I'm in love with and I want. I'm like, will those grow in Georgia? Because maybe I start planting tulips. Listen, we love a little Gothic flower at our house. I am glad to have gotten Jamie's account of being hypnotized. Yeah. I realize I don't think I've ever been hypnotized. And I'm like, would that work for me or would I be a pain in the. Would I be the problem child that's like, this isn't working, that tries to be a trouble?
Tracy V. Wilson
Yeah. When I was in college, we had a couple of, you know, the things arranged by the student affairs committee or whatever, like whoever was arranging entertainment on campus. And there were a couple of different times there was a hypnotist show and I always found it so fascinating what was happening. And then also was curious of like, is this actually staged or. Or is this really happening?
Holly Fry
Yeah. Which was going on during James Braid's time as well. Correct. If you would like to email us to tell us about your experience with hypnotism or with tulips or your pets or whatever, you wish you could do that@historypodcastheartradio.com if you would like to read the show notes, those are available@mystinhistory.com we put them up for every episode we do. And if you have not subscribed to the podcast and you would like to, you can do that on the iHeartRadio app or anywhere you listen to your favorite shows.
Tracy V. Wilson
Stuff youf Missed in History Class is a production of iHeartRadio. For more podcasts from iHeartRadio, visit the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you listen to your favorite shows. This is an iHeart podcast. Guaranteed Human.
Stuff You Missed in History Class
Host: iHeartPodcasts
Date: May 4, 2026
This episode, hosted by Holly Fry and Tracy V. Wilson, dives into the life and work of John Graunt—a nearly 400-year-old London shopkeeper whose groundbreaking analysis of the city’s death records laid the foundations for demography, epidemiology, and the statistical sciences. Despite his humble beginnings, Graunt's data-driven curiosity changed how populations and mortality were understood and studied, influencing public health and statistics up to the present day.
Birth and Upbringing:
Profession and Guild Membership:
Role in Civic Life and Community:
"His work could be categorized as statistical analysis, although the word statistics didn't even exist for another hundred years after he died."
— Holly Fry [02:07]
History of the Death Records:
Graunt's Motivation:
"He does not mention his friend Sir William Petty giving him the idea, or in fact mention him at all. In the dedication of the book, Grant states that, quote, 'now having I know not by what accident engaged my thoughts upon the bills of mortality, I have presumed to sacrifice these my small but first published labors unto your Lordship.'"
— Holly Fry [20:18]
Publication of Findings:
Problems and Limitations:
"He lays all this out to explain the way he's approaching these numbers for comparisons. He's clear that there are places where he has to operate on assumption and that he welcomes criticism."
— Tracy V. Wilson [22:55]
Notable Analytical Insights:
"London, the metropolis of England, is perhaps head too big for the body and possibly too strong, that this head grows three times as fast as the body unto which it belongs... "
— Holly Fry quoting Graunt [27:59]
"Out of 100 births, 36 people will have died before the age of 6, then 24 more in the decade that follows, 15 more in the decade after that, and so on and so on. In his estimation, only one could reasonably be expected to survive to the age of 76."
— Holly Fry [29:02]
Scientific Recognition:
Influence on Contemporaries and Future Fields:
Personal and Financial Troubles:
"King Charles II supported his application and made a statement that if the Royal Society found any more tradesmen like Graunt, they should admit them as well."
— Tracy V. Wilson [30:30]
On the Foundations of Demographics:
"Because of all of this work, Graunt is frequently called the father of demography. So anytime someone is referencing demographics, they're referencing his work at least indirectly."
— Holly Fry [32:04]
On Unintended Consequences of Data Collection:
"Now the question is whether that disease did first appear about that time, or whether a disease which had been long before, did then first receive its name."
— Holly Fry, quoting Graunt on rickets [25:47]
On London's Urban Growth:
"London, the metropolis of England, is perhaps head too big for the body..."
— Holly Fry quoting Graunt [27:59]
On Scientific Openness:
"...he has to operate on assumption and that he welcomes criticism."
— Tracy V. Wilson [22:55]
On Overlooked Value in Everyday Records:
"...most of them who constantly took in the weekly bills of mortality made little other use of them than to look at the foot, how the burials increased or decreased...now I thought that the wisdom of our city had certainly designed the laudable practice of taking and distributing these accomplices for other and greater uses..."
— Tracy V. Wilson, quoting Graunt [18:22]
Graunt’s accidental entry into statistics:
"He characterizes his interest in the bills as an accident that he doesn't even remember." — Holly Fry [20:18]
Surprising demographic realities:
Graunt debunked myths about city gender ratios, showing the faulty perceptions of his time.
Human flaws in public data:
The "searchers" who compiled death data took bribes to disguise causes of death, an endearing detail highlighting the messiness of historical records.
John Graunt’s story underscores the profound impact a curious, methodical individual can have—even centuries later—on public health, social sciences, and our understanding of everyday life. Though often overshadowed by more famous contemporaries, his vision of extracting insight from neglected records has shaped the modern world’s relationship with data, from life insurance to epidemiology.
For listeners interested in historical demography, statistics, and the early modern city, this episode provides a compelling, humorous, and accessible entry point to a quietly revolutionary life.