Podcast
Super-Spiked Podcast
Hosted by Arjun Murti · EN
Super-Spiked Podcast focuses on the mission of everyone on Earth someday becoming energy rich and what that would mean for corporate strategy and energy & environmental policy, markets and commodities
arjunmurti.substack.com
arjunmurti.substack.com
23episodes
Episodes
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EP215: Long-Takes: What can E&Ps learn from US refiners amidst a Geopolitical Super Vol macro backdrop?
1w ago00:14:18Tap to summarizeWATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of a moderately edited transcript using the blue Download button below. There is no PowerPoint slide deck this week.This week we introduce the topic of how to think about energy equity valuations given a Geopolitical Super Vol macro backdrop. Traditional valuation metrics like EV/EBITDA are likely to prove especially unhelpful at a time of major geopolitical uncertainty and commodity volatility. We harken back to the framework we used in the early 2010s for US refiners when Brent-WTI first blew out to around $20/bbl when surging shale oil production unexpectedly filled up pipelines and infrastructure. At the time, investors treated every press release of a contemplated pipeline reversal as solving the bottleneck. Spreads did ultimately narrow meaningfully, as expected, but the transient “above normal” cash flows were not worth zero as the market was initially ascribing. Our framework gave “one-time” credit to temporary cash flows and full credit for our estimate of mid-cycle earnings. This is not a perfect analogy for a geopolitical event like the Strait of Hormuz, but we think the framework is a good one for this environment. 📜 Credits* Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.* This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions.⚖️DisclaimerI certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.Subscribe to receive all content. Also available at Veriten.com.. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com
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EP100: Immutable Themes and Reframing Macro Scenarios
2w ago00:25:04Tap to summarizeWATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of a moderately edited transcript and the slide deck using the blue Download buttons below.This is the 100th Super-Spiked video podcast. We’ve also had an additional 114 written posts that for no obvious reason we account for with its own numbering system, a point that we are sure is of interest to no one and we will merge going forward in case you are wondering why we’ll jump to #215 next week. In celebration of our 100th episode, we recorded this a week early ahead of a guy’s golf trip to Scotland, where we’ll be playing Turnberry, Prestwick, Royal Troon, and Western Gailes. 8 rounds in 5 days is way to ambitious for a bunch of guys in their upper 50s. More on that in the On A Personal Note at the end of this video. Our key focus this week will be discussing how we think the world should think about energy macro scenarios. It should not surprise anyone that we do not believe the world will go back to viewing CO2 as an organizing principle for energy. We have been asked if not “net zero” then what? We attempt to answer that question this week. We start off by taking a look at the key themes from 2022 at the start of Super-Spiked. Those initial themes have stood the test of time. This 100th episode is targeted at a combination of corporate executives, board members, policy people, and the macro economics and sustainability people within companies. It’s probably not for everyone, but that has been one of our philosophies. We are not looking to maximize views of Super-Spiked. We hope it will be accessible to everyone, but this one in particular is aimed at a smaller subset of key decision makers. 0:00 Introduction2:06 Our Key Themes from 2022 Have Stood the Test of Time11:40 Won’t Net Zero Make a Comeback in 2028?17:31 If Not Net Zero, Then What?21:46 How Should Energy Macro Scenarios Be Reframed? 23:30 On A Personal Note📜 Credits* Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.* This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions.⚖️DisclaimerI certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.Subscribe to receive all content. Also available at Veriten.com. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com
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EP99: Long-Takes: Iran, UAE & OPEC, Canada
3w ago00:19:06Tap to summarizeWATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of a moderately edited transcript and the slide deck using the blue Download buttons below.This week we have some quick comments on a trio of topics including (1) macro risk/reward at the two-month anniversary of the Strait of Hormuz being closed, (2) UAE’s decision to withdraw from OPEC, and (3) the attractiveness of Canada for energy investment. All these themes fit well within our Geopolitical Super Vol theme. 0:00 Introduction 0:42 Macro risk/reward at the 2-month anniversary of the Strait of Hormuz being closed 8:27 UAE’s decision to withdraw from OPEC 13:08 The attractiveness of Canada for energy investment. 17:45 On A Personal NoteSubscribe to receive all content. Also available at Veriten.com.📜 Credits* Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.* This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions.⚖️DisclaimerI certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue.Subscribe to receive all content. Also available at Veriten.com. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com
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Energy Tech, Convergence, and the Hyperscalers
4w ago00:23:47Tap to summarizeWe are now recording an audio summary of written posts that we will upload to Apple, Spotify, and YouTube and you can listen to by clicking the button below.This week we expand on the Energy Technology component of our Geopolitical Super Vol framework we introduced last week (here). The massive unmet energy needs of the other seven billion people on Earth were already driving investment in new energy technologies in particular for countries not blessed with sufficient domestic resources like crude oil, natural gas, or coal. A backdrop of structurally increased geopolitical uncertainty and turmoil, in particular amongst the largest economies in the world, will drive a doubling, tripling, and quadrupling down on a wide swath of new technologies that help meet energy needs. For The Lucky 1 Billion of Us, there is a need to invest in the technologies that allow our industries to compete in a host a new areas and to no longer simply cede all manufacturing to China and other Asian countries—as the U.S. and Western Europe have done over the past 25 years.The new technology areas we are most interested in span four broad buckets:* Grid optimization and enhancement* Power generation* Demand diversification opportunities, which encompasses areas like EVs (electric vehicles), LNG (liquefied natural gas) trucks, and energy efficiency* Manufacturing and industrial competitiveness via physical AI, robotics, and automationIn this post we:* differentiate between “Energy Tech,” which we believe has a very favorable outlook, and “Climate Tech,” the latter of which always seemed non-sensical to us.* highlight the key areas we are watching most closely within the new technology buckets noted above.* provide a progress report on hyperscaler profitability given the massive ramp in CAPEX seen by those companies.* highlight Aramco as an AI and technology leader.The opportunity for investment spans a broad spectrum of companies, technologies, and regions across a range of sectors including technology, industrials, traditional energy, new energies, power, infrastructure, metals, minerals, and mining. In a nutshell, Energy & Power + Technology + Industrials + Metals & Materials convergence.For all Super-Spiked content, follow me at https://arjunmurti.substack.com or at https://veriten.com.X (Twitter): @ArjunNMurti DISCLAIMERMy views are my own and not attributable to any current or past affiliation.CREDITSIntro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman on Apple Music: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com
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EP98: A New Era of Geopolitical Super Vol
Apr 1800:32:10Tap to summarizeWATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of a moderately edited transcript and the slide deck using the blue Download buttons below.As we teased in last week’s video, we want to expand on the evolution of our Super Vol commodity macro framework to explicitly rebrand it Geopolitical Super Vol. Since Russia-Ukraine, we have resisted the super-cycle framing that we think implies a smoothness to an upcycle like seen during the 2000s China-BRICs expansion period. The current environment is more like the 1970s—arguably a super-cycle, but one with a lot more choppiness and stress along the way. The current decade is shaping up to be a modern version of that era, with some important differences.Although we are calling it Geopolitical Super Vol, we want to be clear on a few conclusions:* We believe structural profitability and opportunities for growth are significant for a broad range of companies involved in traditional energy, new energy technology, the power value chain, and a host of raw materials.* We believe the corresponding S&P 500 weighting for these sectors will increase meaningfully in the decade ahead.* It is the inevitable sharp economic downturns along the way that motivates us sticking with and evolving the Super Vol language. You can’t demand that which does not exist—and that means sharp commodity spikes will be met with similarly sharp pullbacks during this era.0:00 Introduction2:41 A Break from The 1980-2020 World View6:22 Implications for Energy Sector10:48 Investing in Energy, Power, and Materials14:44 Obliterating Pre-Iran Views16:36 Obliterating Pre-Pre-Iran Views18:53 Be Wary of Perma Bulls and Perma Bears20:36 Be Wary of Net Zero Rebranded21:58 Energy’s Natural Hierarch of Needs Remains Our North Star22:39 FAQ #1: How do we think about global recession risk?24:38 FAQ #2: What are lessons learned from the Asia Financial Crisis of 1997-9?27:15 FAQ #3: What does the traditional energy profitability cycle look like in Geopolitical Super Vol?28:51-32:10 On A Personal Note: Feedback vs PushbackSubscribe to receive all content. Also available at Veriten.com..📜 Credits* Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.* This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions.⚖️DisclaimerI certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com
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EP97: Peace Sells, We Are Buying
Apr 1100:28:20Tap to summarizeWATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of a lightly edited transcript using the blue Download button below. There is no power point slide deck this week.For the past month we have been recording these videos several days in advance of publication and repeating the line that we hope peace will have been declared and the Strait reopened by the time of Saturday publication. Today the message is different. We are recording this late morning New York time on Thursday, April 9. A fragile ceasefire is sort of still in place and there is optimism that shipping volumes in and out of the Strait of Hormuz is on track to revert to something much higher than where we’ve been. It will of course take some time to get back to fully normal pre-War flows.We were originally planning a longer discussion with a power point on evolving our Super Vol theme to more explicitly call it Geopolitical Super Vol, and we will touch upon that in this video podcast. But given the dramatic ceasefire news and major equity and commodity market moves, we will instead address nine questions and takeaways that we see from this crisis.0:00 Introduction1:30 Q1: What is your most important takeaway following the ceasefire?2:50 Q2: In the short-term, will oil prices revert to pre-War levels?6:02 Q3: What about oil prices over the medium-to-longer-term?10:18 Q4: How was such a sizable shock not even worse in terms of impacts?13:07 Q5: What is your take away for US consumers? 15:26 Q6: Where could we be better?18:39 Q7: What about Canada?20:30 Q8: Why are we sticking with Super Vol as our price framework?23:04 Q9: So where do you come out on investment in both traditional and new energies?24:54 On A Personal NoteSubscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content. Also available at https://veriten.com.📜 Credits* Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.* This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions.⚖️DisclaimerI certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com
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EP96: CERAWeek 2026 Takeaways
Mar 2800:23:11Tap to summarizeWATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of a lightly edited transcript using the blue Download button below. There is no power point slide deck this week.We spent the past week in Houston at the always great CERAWeek conference hosted by S&P Global. On behalf of all my colleagues at Veriten, a big thank you to Dan Yergin and the entire S&P Global team for putting on a great event. CERAWeek 2026 came amidst what is now week four of the War in Iran and the continued de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz. We are recording this late on Wednesday, March 25 and as always hope that by the time this is released on Saturday morning, the Strait will have reopened to normal flows and the war ended. Its ongoing closure is simply untenable for the global economy. It is ultimately not good for energy companies, which is our focus area, even if current oil and gas pricing is elevated. A quick end to the war and the reopening of the Strait is the best-case scenario for energy companies everywhere.This week we’ll provide some takeaways from CERAWeek 2026. We will bucket our takeaways in 3 key themes: (1) Macro outlook and scenarios; (2) The day after the war ends, what comes next for energy companies? (3) What unexpected changes will come from this crisis?Our current plan is to not publish Super-Spiked over Easter/Passover weekend. We hope everyone is able to take some time off.Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content. Also available at https://veriten.com.📜 Credits* Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.* This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions.⚖️DisclaimerI certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com
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EP95: Q&A on Long-Term Impacts of War in Iran
Mar 2100:36:15Tap to summarizeWATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of a lightly edited transcript and the slide deck using the blue Download buttons below.We recorded this video podcast on Wednesday, March 18. This week we address five questions that have arisen regarding our views on the potential long-term impacts of the war in Iran.* Does our Super-Spike oil demand destruction framework need adjusting for an abrupt geopolitical spike?* What advance warning signs are we watching to assess economic damage and risks to capital markets?* How does Iran impact our view of the traditional energy profitability cycle and terminal value recognition?* Does the war change which regions we prefer for future CAPEX?* How does Iran impact our Power Surge (power super-cycle) view?Subscribe to receive all content. Also available at Veriten.com.SLIDE 3: Super-Spike Framework In A Geopolitical Event?Key points:* Our March 2005 “Super-Spike” framework was used to assess how high oil prices could reach in order to slow oil demand growth to levels of available supply in an environment of structurally strong global GDP growth (BRICs expansion).* We chose “super” to indicate the oil upcycle was multi-year in nature. We chose “spike” to remind ourselves and our clients that inevitably oil would surely rollover as cycle dynamics ensured a future period of oversupply (or under-demand).* At the end of the day, the super-cycle is always one of sector profitability, with oil prices just one (important) component along with costs and capital intensity.Current environment:* The War in Iran and closure of the Strait of Hormuz is not analogous to that 2004-2014 period. This is an acute geopolitical disruption.* Therefore, the framework we used over 2004-2014 has its limitations. Most notably, the sudden, dramatic jump in oil prices could mean that absolute levels do not need to reach the heights implied in the table on the right.* It also suggests that “Super Vol” remains the better framing for energy commodity markets, including crude oil, oil products, and global spot LNG prices.* Be wary of perma bears and perma bulls! For the bears: cycles have to play out. For bulls: it is always a cycle.Exhibit 1: “Super-Spike” oil demand destruction frameworkSource: Bloomberg, EIA, Federal Reserve, Veriten.SLIDE 4: What Advance Warning Signs Are We Watching?* Bull to bear can happen quickly and unexpectedly…July to December 2008 saw WTI drop from over $140/bbl to under $40/bbl.* How can one differentiate between the July 2007 collapse of two Bear Stearns credit funds and the March 2023 issues with Silicon Valley Bank?* So why worry this time? The closure of the Strait of Hormuz is simply intolerable if measured in months rather than weeks. The Age of Drones is a game changer, as we see in Russia-Ukraine.* Fortress balance sheet, understanding controls and contracts, and aiming to not only survive but thrive during turmoil is the goal.SLIDE 5: How Does Iran Impact The Profitability CycleKey points:* It remains our view that traditional energy is firmly within a new profitability super-cycle that began in 2021 and would be expected to last 10+ years.* Structural profitability cycles are inherently long-term in nature, 10-15 years up, 10-15 years down. The prior downcycle ran from a 2010 peak to a 2020 trough.* Within the structural up or down cycles, numerous mini-cycles occur along the way. We believe 2025 marked a “normal” trough following a 2.5 years mini-downcycle.* We rejected “oil glut” arguments that have prevailed since Liberation Day (April 2025). We agree that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz renders impossible a true accounting of who was right—oil glutters or us.Current environment:* We have been surprised by the fact that capital discipline at the sector level has remained intact.* A true, multi-year upcycle would undoubtedly test discipline. But let’s judge it as we go: so far, so good.* The main risk to seeing a “deep trough” (as opposed to normal) would be an extended closure of the Strait and a collapse in the global economy. We take this risk seriously.* The best case scenario for the profitability cycle would be a quick re-opening that ensured limited adverse global GDP impacts.Exhibit 2: Traditional energy sector profitabilitySource: Bloomberg, FactSet, VeritenSLIDE 6: Does The War Change Regional CAPEX Preferences?* There are no absolutes…it is all opportunity specific.* Oil exploration: Algeria vs UK North Sea circa 1991-1994.* Natural gas import infrastructure: New York state (Appalachia) versus Germany (Russia).* Many areas of the Middle East will attract capital irrespective of how this plays out.* Between COVID, Russia-Ukraine, and now Strait of Hormuz, supply chain security will remain ascendent as an issue. Positive for NAM, power, energy source diversification (new and old tech).SLIDE 7: What Impact Is There On Our Power Surge View?* If a general financial/credit crisis materializes, this is a sector that commonly uses leverage and is now in growth mode.* There will be winners and there will be losers.* Execution: Understanding contracts, supply chains, and liquidity are all critical.* At the end of the day, Power Surge we think persists beyond and through this war due to the need to grow power generation to address aging western world grids, industrial reshoring, electrification, and AI & digital transformation.⚡️On A Personal Note: Super-Spike ReactionsFor On A Personal Note, we refer you to the video where Arjun further reflects on his March 30, 2005 “Super-Spike period may be upon us” report.📜 Credits* Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.* This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions.⚖️DisclaimerI certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com
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Super-Spiked Videopods (EP94): Strait of Hormuz: Assesssing Impacts on Oil, LNG
Mar 1400:35:17Tap to summarizeFor Super-Spiked subscribers that prefer that written posts, we have included a lightly edited transcript of the video (blue download button below) along with a downloadable copy of the slide deck.WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of a lightly edited transcript and the slide deck using the blue Download buttons below.We recorded this video podcast on Wednesday, March 11. As we think everyone by now realizes, the Strait Hormuz is a critical bottleneck to not only crude oil exports from the region but also LNG from Qatar. We have no idea how long the current war will last. The longer it goes, the greater the risk of a painful energy crisis materializing. We do not think that fact is lost on anyone that is participating in or observing the conflict.In this kind of very acute situation, an energy crisis would be bad for everyone be it citizens, governments, and even traditional energy companies over the long run as whatever benefit accrues from short term price appreciation would likely be lost from future economic weakness. No reasonable person in and around the energy sector is rooting for war. Even if shipping were to resume in coming days or weeks out of the Straight, we suspect the realization of what has long been considered a “worse case” geopolitical risk for oil markets—and now LNG—will motivate countries to pursue changes that mitigate this risk of future disruptions.This week we have two key messages: (1) we revisit our “Super-Spike” oil demand destruction framework we first rolled out in March 2005 at Goldman Sachs. It was a career call for us. The basic points of our analysis we think stand the test of time. (2) we discuss various diversification opportunities that we think countries will or should take to reduce the risk of future disruptions long after this current crisis has hopefully abated.Subscribe to Super-Spiked to receive all content via email. Also available on https://veriten.com.SLIDE 1: Cover SlideSLIDE 2: Strait of Hormuz: Long-Term Impacts On Oil, LNG* How will it be secured in an age of drones?* Inverse COVID: Refreshing our oil demand destruction framework.* Baseload energy diversification opportunities:* US Natural Gas: Lots of growth, where to invest?* Coal: A base-load domestic fuel, why not an EU comeback?* Nuclear: Back in vogue, but how long to grow again in US/EU?* Considerations: (1) What’s real, what’s hype? (2) Where in value chain to invest? (3) Who do you trust to allocate capital?SLIDE 3: Revisiting Our Oil “Super-Spike” FrameworkKey points:* We used the US since it has sizeable demand and freely floating retail gasoline prices.* Wider economy structurally outperforms gasoline.* But that means a much higher nominal price is required to destroy demand versus a prior cycle.* Gasoline demand is highly inelastic.* Both absolute price and rate of change are relevant.How to read the table/graph:* The graph shows historic gasoline spending (demand x retail price) relative to personal consumer expenditures.* Retail gasoline price equals the crude oil price + refining margin (to turn crude oil into gasoline) + gasoline taxes + “all other” (retail margin + other costs).* The table holds retail margin plus all other as constant and shows sensitivities to varying levels of gasoline spending as a % of PCE and refining margins.Exhibit 1: “Super-Spike” oil demand destruction frameworkSource: Bloomberg, EIA, Veriten.SLIDE 4: US Natural Gas: Lots of Growth, Where to Invest?US natural gas markets have doubled over past 20 years and are on-track to grow substantially over next decade. US natural gas resource is plentiful; infrastructure-enabled access to higher-valued end markets is critical.Exhibit 2: Global demand for US natural gasSource: EIA, Veriten.Exhibit 3: Gas value chain CROCISource: FactSet, VeritenSLIDE 5: Coal: A Baseload Domestic Fuel, EU Comeback?Growth in coal in China has swamped the reduction in EU and US coal use. We see no reason the EU & US could not, at a minimum, reverse the declines seen over the last 25 years. It’s a drop in the bucket! Moving factories from the EU & US to China is net negative for carbon emissions, geopolitical security, and labor markets in the EU and US.Exhibit 4: Size of global power marketsSource: Energy Institute, VeritenExhibit 5: Growth in coal consumptionSource: Energy Institute, VeritenSLIDE 6: Nuclear: Back In Vogue, But How Long To Grow?Nuclear is again recognized as an important baseload fuel that can favorably add to system diversification. China is growing rapidly versus stagnation in the US and decline in EU. What opportunities exist to improve execution in the developed world? What is the viability (vs hype) of advanced technologies to boost growth?Exhibit 6: Nuclear generation by country/regionSource: Energy Institute, Veriten.⚡️On A Personal Note: 21 Years Later…📜 Credits* Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.* This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions.⚖️DisclaimerI certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com
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Super-Spiked Videopods (EP93): Long-Take From The Road: War in Iran
Mar 700:17:17Tap to summarizeFor Super-Spiked subscribers that prefer that written posts, we have included a lightly edited transcript of the video (blue download button below) along with a downloadable copy of the slide deck.WATCH the video on Substack by clicking the play button above or on YouTube (here).STREAM audio only on Apple Podcasts (here), Spotify (here), or your favorite podcast player app.DOWNLOAD a pdf of a lightly edited transcript using the blue Download buttons below.We are coming to you from Houston following my participation earlier this week at the Aspen Institute’s Winter Energy Forum. This week we provide thoughts on Iran and the latest Middle East conflict. As usual, our focus is on what the long-term implications could be for companies and investors. Our ten initial long-term takeaways are as follows: 1 - Super Vol remains our commodity macro mantra. 2 - Middle East turmoil now as relevant to LNG (liquefied natural gas) as crude oil. 3 - Overhyped oil glut call. 4 - Energy source/technology diversification is a must for countries. 5 - Renewables and other new energies will continue to gain traction. 6 - The case for coal. 7- The case for Canada. 8 – Use unexpected free cash flow to reinforce fortress balance sheets. 9 - Undisruptable oil, gas, coal, copper, and critical minerals. 10 - Commerce over chaos and a brighter future for the Middle East. 🔔 4 Ways to Subscribe* All Content: If you subscribe to Super-Spiked via email, you will receive all content to your inbox and it is also all on the Super-Spiked website.* Veriten: You can also subscribe to Super-Spiked content via the Veriten website (here) and receive Veriten’s flagship COBT video podcast.* YouTube channel for video only: You can subscribe directly to the video feed ofSuper-Spiked Videopods on my YouTube channel Super-Spiked by Arjun Murti.* Apple Podcasts, Spotify for audio only. You can subscribe directly to the audio only feed on Apple Podcasts, Spotify or your favorite podcast player app. The podcast is simply the audio for the YouTube videos.📜 Credits* Intro & Outro music: Wolf Hoffman: Concerto for 2 Cellos in G Minor, Rv 531: I. Allegro Moderato.* This episode of Super-Spiked Videopods was edited and produced by Veriten Productions.⚖️DisclaimerI certify that these are my personal, strongly held views at the time of this post. My views are my own and not attributable to any affiliation, past or present. This is not an investment newsletter and there is no financial advice explicitly or implicitly provided here. My views can and will change in the future as warranted by updated analyses and developments. Some of my comments are made in jest for entertainment purposes; I sincerely mean no offense to anyone that takes issue. This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit arjunmurti.substack.com
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