62% of Trump voters say being MAGA is not an important part of their identity. So who, exactly, did we just elect?

Stephen Hawkins has been trying to answer that question with data for nearly a decade. As Director of Research at More in Common since its founding in 2016, he helped author the landmark Hidden Tribes study and now leads the Beyond MAGA project, the most comprehensive look yet at the psychology of the 77 million Americans who voted for Donald Trump in 2024.

In this conversation, Corey and Stephen dig into the four distinct types of Trump voters, the emergent phenomenon of "traditionalism" among Gen Z, the widening gap between MAGA hard-liners and the reluctant right, and what any of this means for a country that our guest describes as feeling "pre-hot conflict." Stephen brings the rigor of a public opinion researcher and the perspective of someone who has lived, worked, and changed his mind on both sides of America's ideological divide.

This is not a conversation about demonizing Trump voters or excusing them. It is about understanding them, and about what that understanding demands of the rest of us.

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Key Takeaways

Coalition, Not Cult. The Beyond MAGA study surveyed nearly 11,000 Trump voters and found four distinct segments: MAGA Hard-liners (29%), Anti-Woke Conservatives (21%), Mainline Republicans (30%), and the Reluctant Right (20%). Three out of five Trump voters say being MAGA is not a central part of their identity.

The Exhausted Majority Under Pressure. Stephen expects Hidden Tribes 2.0 to show the wings have grown, not shrunk. The exhausted majority may be moving from exhaustion toward something closer to despair.

New Traditionalism and the Logic of Transgression. Among younger Trump voters, traditional or religious identity functions as a form of rebellion in a secular culture. For some Gen Z voters, Christianity is more countercultural than secularism. Supporting Trump taps the same energy as defying the teacher everyone dislikes.

The Respect Gap. 84% of Trump voters feel respected by Trump. Only 21% feel respected by Democratic politicians. That 63-point gap is why even reluctant Trump voters are unlikely to migrate to the other party, regardless of policy grievances.

No Inflection Points. The Epstein files, Greenland threats, Medicare subsidy rollbacks, military actions in Venezuela and Iran: none of them meaningfully moved Trump voter support. Reconsideration is happening among those who were already hesitant, not among convinced supporters.

Stories, Values, Listen. Corey and Stephen both land on the same framework for better cross-divide conversation: surface the other person's story, understand their underlying value system (not just their policy positions), and listen with genuine curiosity rather than loading up your rebuttal.

The Case for Clarity. More in Common is nonpartisan and does not have electoral ambitions, but Stephen does not mince words: the country feels pre-hot-conflict, and what it needs is not more outrage but more precision about who is actually out there and what they believe.

About Our Guest

Stephen Hawkins is Director of Research at More in Common, a nonpartisan organization working to understand and address the forces driving political division in nine countries. He has overseen the organization's research since its founding in 2016, including the landmark 2018 Hidden Tribes study and the 2026 Beyond MAGA project. Prior to More in Common, Stephen conducted public opinion research for Fortune 100 companies, United Nations agencies, electoral campaigns, and political movements. He has appeared on C-SPAN's Washington Journal and regularly on Colorado Matters. He holds a master's in public policy from Harvard's Kennedy School and a B.A. in political science and international affairs from George Washington University's Elliott School.

Links and Resources

Beyond MAGA report: beyondmaga.us
More in Common on Substack: moreincommon.substack.com
More in Common: moreincommonus.com

Connect on Social Media

Corey is @coreysnathan on all the socials…

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Thanks to Pew Research Center for making today’s conversation possible.

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Now go talk some politics and religion with gentleness and respect.

Not a Cult. A Coalition. Stephen Hawkins of More in Common on What Trump Voters Actually Believe