“Often predictions try to pass as descriptions of the world or facts when actually they are something like power plays in disguise.” — Carissa Véliz

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When a tech executive declares that AI will transform everything, are they describing the future, or commanding it? Carissa Véliz, Associate Professor at Oxford’s Institute for Ethics in AI, argues that prophecy and prediction have always been instruments of power, from the Oracle of Delphi to the algorithm in your pocket. In her new book Prophecy, she traces how surveillance and prediction became the twin original sins of digital technology, why predictions are never facts, and what philosophy offers as an antidote. It’s a conversation that is as timely as it is ancient.

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Key Takeaways

Predictions are never facts. They can be educated guesses, wishful thinking, warnings, or veiled commands — but the future is unwritten. The moment someone presents a prediction as inevitable, that’s a signal worth interrogating.

Surveillance and prediction are the two original sins of digital tech. They work in sync: data is gathered to predict behavior, and prediction is used to influence it. The pattern is ancient — a lion watches its prey before it hunts — and the data economy runs on the same logic.

AI is the ultimate prediction machine. Machine learning does one thing: project patterns from past data onto an unknown future. The big assumption baked into every model is that the past looks like what’s coming. It often doesn’t.

Philosophy arose as an antidote to prophecy. Ancient Greece was obsessed with divination. Philosophy was the countermovement — grounded in facts and logic rather than manipulation. That critical stance is exactly what we need now when tech executives make proclamations that get reported as news.

Predictions about people are different from predictions about things. When you predict rain, the clouds are unbothered. When you predict a person’s failure, you shape their fate. Carissa’s call: when predictions about human beings are necessary, make them at the population level, not the individual.

Increase your serendipity. The more we let algorithms decide what to watch, who to meet, and what to read, the more constrained we become. Talking to strangers, reading widely, and taking a walk without a destination are small acts of resistance with real consequences.

About Our Guest

Carissa Véliz is a writer, keynote speaker, and Associate Professor at the Institute for Ethics in AI at the University of Oxford. Her work spans AI ethics, privacy, business ethics, and public policy. She advises companies and governments around the world, serves on the board of the Proton Foundation, and is a member of UNESCO’s Women for Ethical AI. She is the author of Privacy Is Power and her new book Prophecy. Her TED Talk, Beware the Power of Prediction, is available on YouTube.

Links and Resources

Prophecy — www.penguinrandomhouse.com/books/759692/prophecy-by-carissa-veliz/
TED Talk: Beware the Power of Prediction (YouTube): www.youtube.com/watch?v=OS4wHmKtH-Q

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The future is unwritten. How we get there is up to us.