This week on Telltales: we work through Hormuz's impact on oil and gas, the federal deficit's interest-rate squeeze, and then spend most of the hour on the dominant-company question — from Lilly and Nvidia to the real debate: is Microsoft a value trap or the operating system for the agent era?

[00:00] Cold Open & Memo SetupMike opens the episode and points listeners to the Cash Flow Memo at telltales.us — 20 pages covering energy, technology, and healthcare.

[00:22] Iran, Hormuz, and the Energy MapHunt walks through how a six-week Straits closure reshapes production — US and Russia up, Saudi and Gulf Arabs down — and why Asian demand is quietly rolling over as diesel and jet fuel run short.

[01:48] Oil Strip at $80, Waha Gas at Minus SixPermian associated-gas economics force producers to shut in oil rather than pay to move gas; the 2026 strip sits near $80 vs. a pre-campaign path to $50.

[03:17] The Deficit Math That Actually MattersInterest expense has gone from $400B to $1T; tariffs are doing the heavy lifting on the revenue side at ~$500B run-rate. Markets won't accept FY26 > FY25.

[04:42] Healthcare Cost Discipline — Real or Temporary?Medicare/Medicaid at $1.8T out of $7T in projected spending; Mike and Jason weigh whether Trump-era savings survive past this administration or snap back to the 8% trajectory.

[07:15] Global Recession Risk from HormuzJason flags that the US blocking the Straits is a rare posture; Hermes and Ferrari weakness show the luxury tape softening first.

[08:52] Eli Lilly: Dominant, But Not AppleGLP-1 carries the story; oncology and the broader pipeline are strong but every drug is only as good as its next patent. In winner-take-all pharma, blockbusters go to zero overnight.

[10:29] Nvidia: Cheaper Than the S&P$200B+ revenue, >$100B free cash flow at a $4.5T cap — trades below S&P average on cash flow. The circular-revenue concern vs. the structural hyperscaler demand story.

[15:09] Microsoft: Value or Value TrapStock at $370 vs. $550 high. Azure capacity curtailed to prioritize internal Copilot workloads. Satya-era subscription pivot and the OpenAI bet in historical context.

[20:59] The Agent-Era Workflow ShiftMike and Jason describe how Claude Code has replaced chat interfaces for research — the file system is becoming the agent's workspace, which either helps or hurts the Office franchise.

[23:41] Anthropic as the Natural Enterprise PartnerWhy Anthropic's enterprise focus fits Microsoft's Fortune 500 book better than OpenAI's consumer pivot.

[25:22] Teams, Windows, and the Agent OS ThesisThe long case for Microsoft: own the communication layer and build the operating system agents actually run on.

[28:38] Healthcare M&A and the Anthropic–Novartis SignalBiotech deals running at a record pace but still sub-$10B. Anthropic acqui-hires a 10-person biotech for $400M and adds the Novartis CEO to its board — AI's oldest pitch, finally getting institutional weight.

[31:19] What's NextApple next week, Amazon and Walmart the week after — continuing the dominant-company framework and the question of who becomes the next Intel.

Subscribe for next week's Apple episode, and download this week's memo at telltales.us.

This podcast and the information herein are intended for informational purposes only. The views expressed herein are the author’s alone and do not constitute an offer to sell, or a recommendation to purchase, or a solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, nor a recommendation for any investment product or service. While certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, neither the author nor any of his employers or their affiliates have independently verified this information, and its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy, timeliness or completeness of this information. The author and all employers and their affiliated persons assume no liability for this information and no obligation to update the information or analysis contained herein in the future.

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Is Microsoft the Next Intel — or the OS for AI Agents? (e2616)