Jethro (87:03)
Well, that is probably one of the deeper subjects we'll talk about because I said earlier I'm kind of clueless. Let's start that discussion and let's just look at the power law. We talked about that before, if you're familiar with the power law. And by the way, folks, you know, just as a general overview of it, it's an attempt to look at past behavior, like all models do, and then maybe be able to tell where something's going in the future. But you know, what is it based on? It's based on bitcoin. So how many cycles does it really have to look at it now? Giovanni Santostasi's power law goes all the back, way back to the genesis block. Okay, so he is looking at all the blocks going forward. But you're basing that model on probably one of the most volatile nascent technologies. That is less than 15. It's 15 years old. So think about what you're doing. You're attempting to build on that model. Now the funny thing is, if you look at his model and you do a regression analysis on it, the damn thing is, is uncanny accurate. Now, it has a wide variation, standard deviations by about two to the upside, one to the downside. Downside is like almost a floor. But even though it is so accurate. And he says, for instance, I know how to put this, okay, The ETF last year, in January, those, their arrival was a major change in the bitcoin market. Major. We have seen an underlying bid on bitcoin that will water your eyes. And it has been ongoing for like 1.2 million coins. That's massive. And yet if you go from today back that power line, that regression line on the power law analysis still is a straight line. How is that possible? Why shouldn't it have changed? Giovanni will tell you, because these things in the future are already built into this system, which is very difficult to get your head around. So every time that I say, I think that this cycle is going to break, like, again, let's raise my hand. I was wrong on the last cycle, by the way. How do you back up your thought process? You can look at an S curve and you can say, well, you know, at somewhere like, usually the chasm is 14 to 16%. We get to the chasm, we're going to take off with adoption. We can look at Metcalfe's Law. But the thing is that some of these models take into something called time decadence, and they allow for this, this reducing volatility and returns. You know, Marty, I. Here's what I can say, okay, Because I really don't know where things are going. Like if Samson was back there, he was looking at my little painting back there mining bitcoin, and he said, hey, you just won a block. First off, I would cut this conversation short right now. He and I. I've got a bottle of whiskey somewhere. There it is. Big nose Kate. She used to be Doc Holliday's girlfriend and she was quite a character. I'll tell you right now, that's the, you know, the part where he didn't know if she was trying to kill him or not, that that was probably accurate with her. But if he was back there, we, you know, we'd have a shot. And if he Said to me, well, you know, it's too bad you got it now because it's going to be a million a coin next year. I just look at him and say, you know what? You could be right. I can't argue against that, is what I'm trying to say. But to wrap up my thought process on this, this is what I will tell you. Back in 22, when I was laying there in bed and I was wondering what the hell I had done to my life, and bitcoin crashed and I bought like a drunken sailor. I'm not ever going to buy bitcoin again at that price. I don't know if people today are ever going to buy Bitcoin at 60,000 again. And I can back that up with on chain analysis. So your time is limited. It's limited to keep stacking. And you really just have one thing to do now, and that is to stack bitcoin like a smart psychopath. Hold on to the bitcoin. Don't lose the bitcoin. Think about what you hold. Start looking at a reverse CAGR calculator. Realize that, like Marty said, if you're younger out there and you're not some old fart like me, you are going to have the most incredible life in front of you. All you got to do is just be patient and live your life. You know, let's just say that you're young. Let's say you're 30 years old, okay? What the hell are you going to do for the next 20, 30 years? You should keep working even, you know, even if you're at a point where you don't have to work, you still should be doing stuff. And again, you're not going to sit around eating donuts for the next 20, 30 years. You're going to work. You're going to do something. And it's true that someday in the future, you're going to have so much generational wealth, you'll be able to think about inheritance. But you know what else you'll be able to do? You'll be able to think about the things you want to do in life. You know, I just took up scuba diving. I mean, what a blast. You'll be able to do something creative. You know, you can look around my studio here. These pieces will be around for hundreds of years, and they're done well enough that people are going to look at them and go, hey, you know, I really like that piece. They're not just going to throw it in the garbage, maybe learn a musical instrument, maybe do woodworking gardening, something, you know, as the world continues and AI takes over every job. So I guess I just would say I don't know if we're going to break the cycle. I don't even know what the cycle is anymore since, you know, the having is de minimis, means nothing really anymore. Is it tied to presidential cycles, global liquidity, like some, you know, Sam Callahan and Lyn Alden were discussing? I just don't know anymore. I think. You know what, let's tie it back to what you said. You started this out. We are in an uncertain time. And that's what I'll leave you with. This is an uncertain time.
