Podcast Summary: TFTC #689 – Q3 2025 Monetary Base Update with Matthew Mežinskis

Date: December 3, 2025
Host: Marty Bent
Guest: Matthew Mežinskis
Theme: Deep-dive into Bitcoin’s price action, monetary base analysis, and the evolving macroeconomic context for Bitcoin adoption.

Overview

In this episode, Marty Bent hosts Matthew Mežinskis for a quarterly breakdown of global monetary data and its relation to Bitcoin’s network growth and price action. Their conversation unpacks recent volatility in Bitcoin’s price, discusses the resilience of Bitcoin’s power law adoption curve, compares it to traditional assets like gold and tech stocks, and examines the macro-political landscape influencing digital assets. They further debate whether Bitcoin can maintain its decentralized cash utility as institutional finance attempts to co-opt it as collateral.

Major Discussion Points & Insights

1. Current Bitcoin Volatility & Sentiment

• Matthew: Despite a sharp price drop (down 6% to $86,262), historical context and the power curve indicate Bitcoin is behaving normally within its historic volatility.
  • “If you traded a little bit, congratulations, even more. But bucket life is good when you hold bitcoin. Spend time with your family. Don't think about this too much.” [00:53]
• Marty: Short-term swings are intense, but on weekly timeframes, Bitcoin is actually up slightly.
  • “We're right back to where we were seven days ago. We're actually up, yeah. 37 basis points since this time last week.” [01:43]

2. The Power Curve & Network Adoption

• Matthew: Bitcoin price follows a sustainable power law adoption curve—a network effect not mirrored in gold, equities, or fiat.
  • “95% of what Bitcoin does right now is relative to the power curve. Whether it's over under. This is a trajectory of network adoption. You put it on log, log scale. It's a beautiful straight line.” [05:21]
• Historical drawdowns should be contextualized in this framework:
  • “Based on the power trend, which should give everybody a lot of comfort. The price right now has only been this low 30% of the time.” [09:04]

3. Market Manipulation Claims and Cycles

• Marty: Addresses speculation about price suppression and the end of four-year cycles; ETF inflows haven’t budged the price as some expected.
• Matthew: While short- and mid-term manipulation is possible, long-term price discovery always dominates (“the market sorts itself out”).
  • “You can manipulate or suppress markets...but it's very difficult to do that over the long term...the market eventually gets that price, that buyers and sellers accurately reflects their demand and supply.” [02:32]

4. Comparison of Bitcoin to Gold & Tech Stocks

• Gold:
  • Gold’s long-term returns have lagged global money supply growth.
  • Its exponential growth curve is now outpaced by Bitcoin’s power curve.
  • “If you take the long term trend measure the slope of that, you're at five and a quarter, 5%. ... It means the USD accretes 2% over other currencies or other currencies lose 2% relative to the dollar on average. ... gold is actually not even that great there.” [32:11]
• Tech Stocks:
  • Bitcoin is increasingly “cheap” versus top 8 tech stock market caps and versus gold, reaching statistical lows on these comparative trends.
  • “Depending on how an investor might look at this, especially if they are coming at this from the lens of being a tech AI investor, which there are a lot of those for bitcoin, Bitcoin is getting cheaper every day compared to the top eight tech stocks. …We’re setting new lows every day, which is wild.” [63:03]

5. Monetary Base: U.S. Debt, Fed Balance Sheet, and Foreign Treasury Holdings

• U.S. debt issuance and Federal Reserve treasury holdings have considerable room to grow before reaching previous (crisis-level) peaks.
  • “Federal Reserve hold $6.2 trillion in treasuries. 38.3 trillion have been issued. …That’s 16%. …During the crazy season…they max it out at 28.3%. So …the Fed could double what they have held in the past and still proportionately not be bigger than…the highest inflation they’ve ever had on their balance sheet.” [50:19 & 53:07]
• Foreign ownership of treasuries is declining. Stablecoins/stablecoin issuers are not close to replacing foreign demand or significantly influencing macro U.S. dollar flows.
  • “What's the market cap of stablecoins? …It's $14 trillion compared to 200 billion in stablecoins.” [55:08 & 56:41]

6. Structural Future: Credit, Exponential Growth, and Bitcoin’s Unique DNA

• Unlike exponential finance (stocks, credit), Bitcoin’s power curve suggests limited, stable network growth—beneficial for long-term sustainability but perhaps limiting “number go up” expectations built around leverage and credit.
  • “Bitcoin doesn’t mix well with exponential growth. It’s a limited sustainable growth pattern.” [32:11]
  • “If bitcoin would just be this sort of base asset where you could collateralize against it…and we just have a bunch of fiat interest around Bitcoin, this trend would not hold. …But what’s behind that $22 million bitcoin probably loads mountains and mountains and mountains of fiat interest and government bonds and stablecoins and all the rest. That’s not really a future that people would envision.” [92:57–93:43]

7. The “Soul” of Bitcoin: Collateral Asset or Everyday Cash?

• Marty: Stresses importance of ensuring that Bitcoin remains usable as peer-to-peer cash, not just a “never sell, only collateralize” digital capital asset.
  • “I do think the meme of it's only going to be digital capital, never sell your bitcoin, never spend your Bitcoin is completely shortsighted and asinine.” [86:15]
• Square/Block’s point-of-sale initiative and rising contractor invoicing in BTC highlight grassroots usage trends.
• Matthew: If Bitcoin maintains decentralization and censorship resistance as a retail, non-collateral asset, it can avoid an exclusively Wall Street-dominated fate.
  • “As long as that decentralized nature holds, we're going to be fine. ... And if bitcoin would do what a lot of the people that have been clamoring for, I guess in Wall street, and if it would just be this sort of base asset where you could collateralize against it and then draw on it, and we just have a bunch of fiat interest around Bitcoin, this trend would not hold.” [87:58 & 92:57]

8. Mining, Hashrate, and Security

• Bitcoin’s hashrate has exploded (e.g., one stretch saw as much hash rate added in six weeks as in the first 11 years). The security budget lags gold, but network maturation is evident.
  • “Hashrate, by the way, another screaming power curve when it comes to bitcoin. …It's just incredible how much bitcoin security has grown relative to the value of the system.” [80:04]
• Mining is now influenced by more price-insensitive industrial players exploiting stranded and cheap energy, stabilizing costs and competitiveness.

9. Macro & Geopolitical Risks

• U.S. policy, regulation, and legal actions (e.g., the samurai wallet case) show the ongoing threat of state co-optation or suppression.
  • “The fight is not over, particularly the samurai plea deal and then sentencing which was incredibly egregious in terms of the attack on open source developers building non custodial wallet software, being punished…That's not a good sign that's happening in Trump's America.” [23:14]

10. Looking Forward: What Matters for Bitcoin’s Growth

• Retail “hodling,” education, and advocating for P2P cash use are vital to counteract the overwhelming inertia of Wall Street finance.
• Price predictions based on exponential models and money supply comparisons (like Stock-to-Flow) have proved unreliable; the power trend is more statistically robust.

Notable Quotes & Timestamps

• Matthew (on monetary debasement):
  “In a world where central bankers are tripping over themselves to devalue their currency, Bitcoin wins. In the world of fiat currencies, Bitcoin is the victor.” [00:07]

• Matthew (on the power curve):
  “95% of what Bitcoin does right now is relative to the power curve. ... it's a beautiful straight line. This is how networks grow.” [05:21]

• Marty (on the practical experience of BTC payments):
  “I was thinking of today, right before we hopped on, it's December 1st. Ran Bitcoin payroll for the employees here at TFTC... the amount of contractors that know that we're a bitcoin company and just send us invoices in bitcoin. It's like, okay, this is cool.” [97:14]

• Matthew (on the consequences of exponential Wall Street finance):
  “If it just becomes this savings asset... it might look good on a price level, but there's going to be a lot, a lot, a lot of fiat units that are baked into this number... it's just going to be absurd. It's not going to be a future that anybody's going to want.” [107:22]

• Matthew (on staying centered):
  “Comfort in the power curve, the network effect and spend time with your family.” [112:03]

Key Timestamps for Important Segments

| Segment | Topic/Highlight | Timestamp | |---------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------|-------------| | Opening | Bitcoin price drop context & power trend intro | 00:07–05:21 | | Power curve vs. exponential models; comfort in network trends | 05:21–09:04 | | Discussion of manipulation, ETF price impact, four-year cycles | 01:59–05:21 | | Gold, stocks, M2, M3, and Stablecoins: Monetary base deep dive | 32:11–58:36 | | Unique nature of Bitcoin’s adoption curve | 45:44–50:17 | | U.S. debt, Fed balance sheet, and foreign Treasury holders | 50:17–59:31 | | Bitcoin vs. tech stocks and gold (relative “cheapness”) | 63:03–68:47 | | Bitcoin mining, hash rate explosion, network security | 78:30–84:39 | | The “soul” of Bitcoin—P2P cash vs. financial collateral debate | 85:44–93:43 | | Geopolitics, policy risk, and decentralized resilience | 23:14–26:00 | | Power curve vs. Stock-to-Flow and exponential models | 106:44–111:05 | | On retail activism and day-to-day Bitcoin usage | 112:03–end |

Memorable Moments

• Matthew compares the anxiety in the market to “Our pets' heads are falling off,” diffusing fear with historical perspective. [00:36]
• Clear argument that exponential finance (credit/debt systems) will clash with Bitcoin’s capped, sustainable growth—offering a fundamentally new model for global value storage.
• Discussion of Square/Block’s impact on real-world Bitcoin adoption at the merchant level and Marty’s anecdotal payroll stories [97:14–99:04].
• Matthew’s call to “take comfort” in the data and use network effects, not media noise, as a compass for Bitcoiners’ peace of mind.

Conclusion

This episode is a comprehensive check-in for long-term Bitcoin holders, providing statistical and network-centric reasons to stay focused on the big picture. Matthew Mežinskis brings evidence, macro context, and historical rigor, cautioning against overreliance on Wall Street finance and debt-driven models. The reminders to educate, transact, and “spend time with your family” serve both as practical and philosophical guidance for navigating Bitcoin’s wild frontier.

Final sign-off quote:
Marty: “If you’re…new or seasoned and haven’t yet internalized that bitcoin is exhibiting power trend adoption…look at the data. …We are lower, we're below trend, but we've been at this point for 30% of Bitcoin's life in relation to where the trend actually is.” [106:47]