TFTC: A Bitcoin Podcast – Episode #701
"The New Monroe Doctrine Is Here" with Mel Mattison
Date: January 7, 2026
Host: Marty Bent
Guest: Mel Mattison
Episode Overview
In this episode, Marty Bent and returning guest Mel Mattison dive deep into the rapidly shifting geopolitical and economic landscape at the start of 2026, following the U.S. military operation in Venezuela and the apparent resurrection of a new Monroe Doctrine. The conversation explores the implications of these events for U.S. strategy, global markets, resource security, Bitcoin, and the evolving rules-based international order. The duo expand their analysis to discuss market dynamics, the liquidity cycle, Bitcoin's current "awkward puberty," gold's resurgence, AI’s disruptive impact, and what lies ahead for investors and the world.
Key Discussion Points
1. The End of the Rules-Based Order & The New Monroe Doctrine
- Context: U.S. intervention in Venezuela to oust Maduro, post-National Security Strategy release.
- Key Insight: The U.S. is abandoning the 20th-century rules-based global order in favor of direct, interest-driven action to secure resources and regional dominance.
- Mel:
"I think the rules based order was essentially a scam put in place by the United States Post World War II to give a structure to enforce what we wanted. That started to fall apart." (01:42)
- Marty:
"Here we go. Less than a month or two months after they released their National Security strategy and it seems like they're trying to implement it. A new Monroe Doctrine..." (04:31)
- Mel:
2. Geopolitical & Economic Motivations in Venezuela
- US Move: Asserting control over Venezuela’s vast oil and mineral resources, countering Russian and Chinese influence.
- Mel:
"The move to secure the Venezuelan resources was a great move... I think this is the realization that Venezuela has probably the greatest concentration of natural resources in our hemisphere and perhaps one of the greatest on the planet." (10:12)
- Mel:
- Resource Breakdown: Heavy crude reserves in Venezuela suit U.S. refining capabilities; securing these is vital for energy security.
- Mel:
"There's only three countries in the world with large reserves of heavy crude. Canada, Russia, and Venezuela... we're obviously not importing from Russia. So there's only one other source..." (13:03)
- Mel:
- Implications: Enhances US bargaining position globally, stabilizes domestic economic inputs (oil), and asserts hemispheric leadership.
3. Market and Macro Environment
- Multipolar Reality: Clear recognition that the US is one of several global power centers.
- Market Predictions:
- Mel:
"This first and second quarter of this year are going to be incredible. I think great crypto is going to be amazing. I think bitcoin is going to outperform gold this year." (08:53)
- Marty and Mel agreed risks are persistent, but optimism is warranted in early 2026.
- Mel:
- Risks: Overconfidence in military successes, overextension of US power, and “doom and gloom” vs. market optimism.
- Mel:
"What the Trump administration really needs to guard against is getting too cocky and thinking... 'Let's do Cuba, let's do Mexico...'" (28:18)
- Mel:
4. Bitcoin, Gold, and the Liquidity Cycle
- Bitcoin’s Fourth Quarter Weakness: Attributed to liquidity drain, tax loss harvesting, and lack of wash sale rules.
- Mel:
“Bitcoin is not a NASDAQ correlated asset. Bitcoin is not a gold correlated asset. Bitcoin is like a global liquidity correlated asset.” (32:14)
- On new year:
"You basically saw the calendar flip and crypto and bitcoin take off like a rocket ship because there was so much selling going on at the very end of the year." (36:22)
- Mel:
- 2026 Predictions: Bitcoin to outperform gold, particularly in the first half of the year; long-term “awkward puberty” for Bitcoin as an asset class.
- Mel:
“My next target price for Bitcoin was 150. When we hit 150, I'll reevaluate it. I think we're going to 150 in the first half of the year... Bitcoin is going to outperform gold this year.” (41:44)
- Mel:
- Gold’s Resurgence: Expected to play a central role as global reserve asset.
5. US Fiscal Policy, Tariffs, and Domestic Tensions
- Supreme Court Tariffs Ruling: Seen as the largest short-term risk.
- Fraud and Fiscal Overhang: Medicaid fraud and waste, potential policy openings if government addresses these issues.
- Mel:
“If you got rid of income taxes for people under 200,000... those are the people that spend the money... the whole world is set up to expand the money supply, to expand it through inflation...” (56:17)
- Mel:
- Elections and Political Risk: Midterms could trigger market volatility or pullbacks, depending on perceived outcomes.
- Mel:
"I think this first half is going to be really good... but the market itself is going to start anticipating that, okay, the midterms are going to be over... rein in the risk a little bit." (57:33)
- Mel:
6. AI’s Disruptive Potential and Labor Realignment
- AI Bottlenecks: Human nature and organizational inertia, more than memory or compute.
- Mel:
"I think the bottleneck is human nature right now... companies aren't even completely recognizing it because there's a lot of workers that are just used to work 45 hours a week. Now they're working 25..." (62:35)
- Mel:
- Generational Shifts: Zoomers and younger entrepreneurs rapidly leveraging AI for business, bypassing traditional employment paths.
- Marty:
“I'm just going to go out there and undercut the B2B SaaS company while Claude builds this for me in a few days. It's insane what's happening out there right now.” (69:56)
- Marty:
7. What’s Next for the World/Markets/Bitcoin?
- Global Economic Outlook: Threading the needle could yield a very positive outcome, but risks of “climbing the wall of worry” remain real.
- Mel:
"All the incentives for everybody pretty much are to keep the shell game going... If every single global power is incentivized to keep this thing going, why do you think it's all going to collapse?" (73:37, 76:18)
- Mel:
- Gold, Silver, and Bitcoin’s Evolution:
"I think bitcoin is going through a awkward puberty right now... And I think it's a liquidity correlated asset... It needs to get a lot bigger than it is. It will." (80:31, 82:21)
- Advice to Listeners:
"Don't be too bearish now because of the Supreme Court thing and the geopolitical stuff, because the time to make money is when there's that wall of worry." (85:06)
Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments
-
On the rules-based international order:
"We're in a multipolar world now with three great powers and the decisions that need to be made need to be made based on national security, national interest, economic stability."
— Mel, 02:55 -
On the Venezuela operation being resource-driven:
"I don't think that this has anything to do with international law or fentanyl. I think, obviously, those are smokescreens. This is going to be a total resource grab. Not make apologies for it."
— Mel, 12:20 -
On US market mood:
"We’re climbing this wall of worry. People don't want to believe it... Once those people capitulate and say, oh, no, this is all figured out, that is going to be the big sell time."
— Mel, 08:53 -
On AI disruption & generational change:
“It seems like there is a portion of the younger generation, particularly Gen Z, that has really latched onto this...since they can't get jobs at regular companies.”
— Marty, 67:33 -
On Bitcoin’s status:
"I think bitcoin is going through a awkward puberty right now... it's still trying to find out exactly who it is. Okay, it's not exactly digital gold. It's not exactly the NASDAQ. What is it?"
— Mel, 80:31
Timestamps for Key Sections
- Introduction, themes, and recent events: 00:07–03:59
- Monroe Doctrine, Venezuela intervention, and resources: 03:59–17:29
- Risk, optimism, and market outlook for 2026: 05:08–09:36, 31:00–34:30
- Economic/geopolitical consequences of Venezuela: 09:36–23:23
- Bitcoin, gold, and liquidity cycles: 30:50–45:28
- Fiscal risks—tariffs and fraud: 51:30–56:17
- AI’s accelerating but uneven adoption: 61:45–72:56
- Long-term vision / threading the needle: 72:56–76:18
- Gold, bitcoin as reserve assets, puberty stage: 77:29–82:21
- Final thoughts & advice: 84:55–86:07
Closing Thoughts
The episode paints a picture of a world in transition—where US foreign policy is explicitly shifting to favor resource security and regional control, inflation and monetary expansion are baked into the global system, and technology (namely AI and Bitcoin) will be key forces redrawing the boundaries of power, wealth, and opportunity. Listeners are encouraged to stay alert, question consensus doom, and seize opportunity amid volatility, while remaining wary once optimism becomes the dominant narrative.
Listen for a nuanced macro view, forward-looking predictions, and practical warnings about the year ahead.