TFTC: A Bitcoin Podcast

Episode #708: Why Silver Doubled in 60 Days with Josh Phair
Host: Marty Bent
Guest: Josh Phair (Founder, Scottsdale Mint & Wyoming Reserve)
Date: January 26, 2026

Overview

In this high-voltage episode, Marty Bent and metals expert/entrepreneur Josh Phair dive into the jaw-dropping recent run in precious metals—especially silver, which has more than doubled in price in just two months. They explore the complex web of geopolitical and economic forces driving the rally, including resource wars, shifting global trade, China's and India's strategies, Western government responses, and the underpinning relevance to both gold and Bitcoin. The conversation ranges from technical market nuances to the philosophical stakes of sound money, with a healthy dose of historical context and real-world stories from inside the metals industry.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Backdrop: Why Silver—and Gold—Are Booming

• Global monetary debasement is turbocharging precious metals.
  • "In a world where central bankers are tripping over themselves to devalue their currency, Bitcoin wins. In the world of fiat currencies, Bitcoin is the victor. That’s part of the bull case for bitcoin... you probably should be [paying attention]." (A, 00:07)
• Silver hit $101+, gold approached $5,000—moves described as "historic." (B, 00:36)

2. The Geopolitical Shift: From Globalization to Resource Wars

• Ukraine war, sanctions, and asset seizures marked a turning point, creating distrust in the US-led global system. (A, 01:20)
• Countries, especially BRICs, are worried for their foreign reserves (gold, fiat, physical assets) after witnessing Russia’s assets get frozen/seized. (A, 01:20+)
  • "If that can happen to them, that can happen to us…" (A, 01:20)

3. China’s Global Resource Grab

• China has maneuvered aggressively into Africa for mining rights, using economic development as leverage (infrastructure-for-minerals deals). (A, 02:40)
• Military coups in Africa are shifting alliances; China took the resource lead. (A, 03:40)
• US response: Focus on securing supply chains in the western hemisphere, ramping up military and economic influence in the Caribbean and Latin America. (A, 05:10)
• Silver, gold, and other critical minerals: At the epicenter of military, energy, and technology strategies.

4. The Silver Market Squeeze – The Critical Event

• Thanksgiving/Black Friday Comex freeze: Sudden, massive silver withdrawal request (possibly by China) “like a third of the silver in New York”—market froze, then withdrawal request vanished after market reopened. (A, 13:30)
  • "My personal take is it was the Chinese... They were either testing our markets or just wanting a lot of it in one shot... Suddenly the thing freezes... and then Monday morning, there’s no withdrawal request, it’s gone." (A, 14:10)
• JP Morgan’s role: “Threw a blanket over all their inventory,” went net long, and “squeezed everyone.” (A, 16:27)
  • "Banks are profit centers. So I think what they did was so we call in the industry, they threw a blanket over all their inventory and said none of this is for sale. And then they went long..." (A, 16:27)

5. Chokepoints: Mining, Smelting, and the US-China Resource Race

• EPA rules limit US refining capabilities; most silver/gold concentrates go to China—which is now restricting exports.
• US effort: Building a massive new smelter in Tennessee (with DoD funding, Korean tech, JP Morgan financing) to onshore mineral processing and secure rare earths and silver feedstock. (A, 43:00)
  • "The U.S. department of War put two billion dollars into a smelter... going to put it in Tennessee and use the Koreans technology... Financing? J.P. Morgan." (A, 43:20)

6. India, BRICs, and Global Demand

• As China restricts silver exports, India must turn to open markets, driving up price further.
• BRICs nations, including China and India, are hoarding metals, reinforcing a mercantilist—rather than globalist—trading order, driving demand shocks.

7. Monetary Reset and the New Financial Paradigm

• Trump’s December 2024 “warning to BRICs” tweet: “Don’t start a new [gold-backed] currency”—signal that the US recognizes the gold threat to dollar hegemony. (A, 01:20, 23:18)
  • "He said, warning to the bricks, don't start a new currency and don't back it… by gold… Whoever holds the most gold essentially has made all duels. This is just throughout history." (A, 01:20)
• China and gold: Building vaults all over BRICs countries, placing gold “on warrant” at Shanghai exchange—a deliberate move to build parallel trade settlement infrastructure. (B/A, 23:56–28:15)
  • "They built the plumbing before... required insurance companies to hold gold on their balance sheets… Chinese people buying physical metal in the malls. It's not stopping." (A, 30:45)
• Poland: Huge gold accumulation to 37% reserves—possibly moving toward USD "war insurance." (A, 34:31)
• Basel III rules: Physical gold as a Tier 1 (riskless) reserve asset now officially adopted by Switzerland and others, further supporting official sector demand. (A, 36:42)

8. Bitcoin’s Role—Intertwined but Distinct

• Josh Phair: “Not a maximalist,” but holds both gold/silver and Bitcoin. Argues for broad asset stewardship.
  • "I've also been in the bitcoin world... and hold it on my balance sheets at Scottsdale Mint and have for longer than Michael Saylor has been in it... Why? Because what happens if bitcoin… does become the dominant player?” (A, 38:09)
• Governments are struggling to treat bitcoin as a reserve asset due to international pressure, but “cracks” are emerging as some (e.g. El Salvador, Bhutan, Ethiopia, Argentina) dip in. (A/B, 38:05–38:09)

9. Historical Perspective: Valuation Models and Market Memory

• The “Fair Sinclair” Ratio: Named for Josh’s mentor, Jim Sinclair, compares US foreign debt to gold reserves. Right now, it implies gold could eventually reprice to $35,000/oz if things truly reset. (A, 52:58)
  • "During times of financial crisis, foreign central banks value the reserve currency… in gold, as in: what’s the foreign debt... what price does it need to be to balance… that ratio right now is at $35,000 for gold." (A, 52:58)

10. Philosophy, Morality, and the Future

• Both host and guest see the rush into hard assets as not just financial, but moral and philosophical—a stewardship of truth, sound money, and responsibility.
  • "Be a steward of your knowledge, be a steward of your resources... just for me, it’s give glory to the Lord and what you do." (A, 61:49)
• Unshakable optimism in American resilience: “Never bet against America, but you still might want to own other assets.” (A, 66:00)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On market shock:
  "For silver to double in less than two months. This is historic. And it's not even that volatile. It's just like every day, every day..." (A, 16:19)

• On geopolitical trust:
  "If that can happen to them, that can happen to us..." (A, 01:20) [on Russia's assets being seized]

• On the new era:
  "Some could call it a new world order. I would call it… a paradigm shift. We are entering a new, we’re going into a new financial system. We're going into a new trade system. Everything’s going to change..." (A, 48:15)

• On sound money and faith:
  "I think there is a moral aspect to this too... the world should operate on sound money... Be a steward of your knowledge, be a steward of your resources..." (A, 61:49)

• On optimism and the American spirit:
  "Don't short the American spirit, the people of America. … Never bet against America, but you still might want to own some other assets." (B/A, 65:50–66:00)

Timestamps for Key Segments

| Timestamp | Topic / Quote Snippet | |-----------|----------------------| | 00:07 | Opening thesis: Fiat debasement & Bitcoin/gold case | | 01:20 | Asset seizures, Ukraine war, BRICs distrust | | 14:10 | Silver supply shock—Comex “server error” story | | 16:27 | JP Morgan’s inventory “blanket” and market impact | | 23:18 | Trump’s anti-gold-backed currency tweet to BRICs | | 30:45 | China’s gold infrastructure, public gold buying | | 34:31 | Poland's gold buying—USD “war insurance” | | 36:42 | Basel III, physical gold as Tier 1 reserve | | 43:20 | US funding/building domestic smelters | | 52:58 | The “Fair Sinclair” gold valuation ratio | | 61:49 | Sound money as moral stewardship | | 65:50 | “Don’t short the American spirit” |

Flow & Tone

The episode is a blend of technical economic analysis, insider market stories, geo-strategic narrative, and philosophical reflection—punctuated by clear, conversational banter. Josh Phair brings the practical knowledge and first-hand industry tales; Marty Bent probes, relates, and steers to broader implications for Bitcoiners, goldbugs, and anyone watching the shifting sands of world finance.

Summary Takeaway

The explosion in silver’s price is not a mere market anomaly: it’s the sign of deep, epochal shifts in how nations secure resources, manage risk, and prepare for portfolio- and civilization-level reset. With trust in fiat eroding, physical metals (and by extension, Bitcoin) are moving to the beating heart of sovereign strategy. The scramble for sound assets, says Phair, has only just begun, and the American spirit—if it learns, adapts, and stewards wisely—may still thrive, even as the world rewrites the global rules of wealth.

Note: This summary skips advertisements, the intro/outro, and any off-topic banter to focus purely on discussion content.