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Transcript60 lines
- [00:07]
A
You've had a dynamic where money's become freer than free. If you talk about a Fed just gone nuts. All, all the central banks going nuts. So it's all acting like safe haven. I believe that in a world where central bankers are tripping over themselves to devalue their currency, Bitcoin wins. In the world of fiat currencies, Bitcoin is the victor. I mean, that's part of the bull case for bitcoin. If you're not paying attention, you probably should be. Probably should be. Probably should be.
- [00:36]
B
Well, it's been about a year since we caught up and you probably do need security guards with guns now because the metals complex has had one hell of a run. Silver just this morning went over 100. Hit, hit over $101 at some point. Colds approaching 5,000. And I had to reach out to you because as I was saying before we hit record, I'm convinced that those in the know of what's going on with the metal flows know the actual story of what's going on because it seems pretty big right now. And so without asking any leading questions, I guess just jump into it.
- [01:14]
A
What.
- [01:14]
B
Have you seen what is going on with the, the metals complex as it stands today?
- [01:21]
A
Yeah, I would say, I mean, clearly we could talk about all the monetary reasons, the expansion of debt, all those things that are really taking place. And frankly, what started really around the time of the Ukraine war, I think it set the stage for what we're seeing here, which is a exit of globalism and trade relationships which are not just broken, but we're now in war over, over resources. And then the resources that are critical to the future related to energy, AI power and military are forefront. And you kind of put all those things in together where people all want the same asset at the same time. That's, that's what an auction does. If two people want to buy something and they're willing to pay a higher price to get it, that auction goes up. Well, if you're lucky at an art auction or you're on ebay and you're the only one bidding prices, prices lower. So it's a situation, you know, really what's happened. It's just, you gotta, it's a geopolitical. And so I've been talking about as it's a metals war. It was right around, I'm actually flying out to, to Europe on Sunday here a couple days. I think it was, I was coming back. I think I had, I had a hat on. I think some people are like oh man, you're not very professional. I was like man, I'm on a 10 hour flight like you know, coming back from Europe and I just put a hat on and I start talking about what was happening and it was the gold moving to the US and, and I kind of started to put together the, the my, a little bit more of my macro thesis of, of what, what was going to happen and a lot of it is why I moved my, my what's now Scott, still mint. I moved, moved from Arizona over 18 years ago. I founded it, I moved it to Wyoming and then I started another company called the Wyoming Reserve which is a tax advantaged foreign trade zone vaulting operation. And you know, when you have the macro thesis and you see the chips change, I, I love to put, put things on the board and you move things around. And I started just talking about what I'm seeing unfold and you know, really what we've seen, you know, kind of fast forward a little bit here with, with silver that we'll cover really is China, it's U S banks, it's US Government, that's what's driving, that's what's driving the, the numbers right now. But I also think it, it started the Ukraine war when assets were seized. So and I think this is even interesting in the digital sphere because I, you know, is what is feasible and what is not. And so when, when Russia's assets, when we're talking balances at, at you know, the bank of England, whether that was physical gold, whether that was fiat currency, whether that was some oligarch's boat like in a different port, you know, the assets were seized and I really think most of the brics nations looked at that and says well if that can happen to them, that can happen to us in you know, if we look at the Ukraine war, it's, it's clearly a, a proxy because there's, it's, it's just, it's just there's not a lot of movement. It's just there's unfortunately a lot of death and money and money laundering and, and stuff. But China is really the one behind it all, behind Russia because if, if, if Russia were to fall, China's now next. And so Trump's tweet was December right around Christmas of 24. He, he hadn't taken office yet. He'd want just won the election. He gave a, oh gosh, sorry, my phone wasn't turned off. He gave a really interesting tweet out and I don't think it was properly covered he said, warning to the bricks, don't start a new currency and don't back it. And I think we could all get our heads around, okay, the BRICs might want to try to create a competitor to the US Dollar. I think we can all get around that. But I don't think people pay attention to what he meant by back was gold. And so at that time and what that means historically, if you think about it, whoever holds the most gold essentially has made all duels. This is just throughout history. I mean it's, this goes back thousands of years. And then after World War II, even gold is the settlement layer for the debts of everyone. And that's why bank of England has held all the gold over the last. For decades it's had the most gold in the world. And now even, even countries will pledge some of their gold as loan facilities through the World bank for developing countries. It's very much part of the financial system. Then you have this beast, China, whose military and economy has been growing decade after decade saying, hey, we want our gold in China. You don't want it there. And so that had been going on for a few years under, when Biden was there and no one was really paying attention. What I don't think people were also paying attention. And I came from the risk management side in the mining industry, so have done some corporate risk management work in mainly not just the US but Latin America, a little bit in Africa. So I'm pretty aware of resources and companies and traditionally I would say it was the U.S. canadian mining companies and Australian mining companies were kind of some of the biggest players in that arena. China over the last 20 years did a really good job of getting in, in particular into Africa. And they start cutting deals and they said, hey, we'll build you an airport, we'll build you schools, we'll build you a port. If you let us access, to develop this, mine it to do to or access food. Because I mean China is just this massive machine. So really. And now we're starting to see the, you know, these, these military coups in, in, in Africa that are probably going to pick up. Like who are they aligning with? You know, are they. You know, unfortunately, Africa is a playing ground of resources and, and you know, throughout history and it's just a mess of massive problems, but China mopped it all up. And so I think what happened was Trump administration came in and you can even go back to his first term. One of his biggest things he was worried about was computer chips and says, hey, what happens if we lose Taiwan. So he decided to help bring, you know, two massive Taiwanese companies into Arizona. So there's two multi billion dollars one's on the north end of the town of the valley and one's on the south. And so here we are, many years later. I don't even think they're, they're not fully online yet, but it takes that long to develop. But I mean, at some point I think we can, Here we are in 2026. This could be a year Taiwan could go down. It could, it's, it's definitely not a zero percent chance of anything. It's probably going up. And so I think the Trump administration immediately. And I, and I felt that I saw it because I work with the banks, I work with some, some, some government work. I see metal movement and flow and I'm like, the amount of material. And it started with gold coming to the US it was under the guise of, it was tariffs. The tariffs are coming. But if you're a country who is lacking in something, who needs something, are you going to put a tariff on that if you need it for your manufacturing? No, you tariff other things. And so all this material was coming to the US but it kind of felt like to me, it was so big, it was bigger than a bank, it was bigger than a company. And it was so disruptive to the London market that they were having gold delivery delays right around this time last year into that first, late into the first quarter. If anyone is that disruptive into the financial markets, you get on the knock, you get a knock on the door by some agency, Commodity Futures Trading Commission. It happened to George Soros in the 90s, it happened to Warren Buffett. No one is immune. They both try to corner silver, by the way, or not corner it. They took too big of a position, which kind of get into what's happened today. So if somebody is buying this much gold and it's disrupting the market and London's panicking, but no one's getting a knock on the door. It's gotta be the federal government. That was the same time Elon Musk was saying, hey, back when he was doing Doge, he was like, let's audit or Knox. Trump says, hey, let's have a look. Now, we haven't heard anything since then. And I think probably my last podcast I said my take would be, is it good chance it was pilfered? Right. Over how many years? It's not been audited in 50 plus. Some people might say, we don't need it. It's there. We Just tell you it's there. Who knows? Who knows what? I mean, we have seen so much government waste, you know, the daycare stuff. Our politicians, unfortunately, on both sides of the aisle are known to spend money or take money or line their own pockets. Unfortunately, maybe not all of them, but. So who knows what, what took place? So, so that, that started early, you know, early 25, I mean, right. It almost felt like it was, it was almost as if his, his team was already in contact with the banks before he took office. It was so coordinated. It was so big. And then when he took office, immediately the tariff agenda hit, you know, heavy. Early early 25. And then it kind of came down into what's going to be tariffs, at what rate and who are we going to do it to. And we're still having this topic that's, it's really not going away. And then comes up this whole critical minerals topic. And let's do a review. What's critical to the infrastructure of the United States? So kind of going back to the, the knowledge of like, so if you think you need computer chips for your economy years ago, what about medicine? How much medicine is made in China and India? Where, where does, where does the US Get? It's pretty much everything. It's made those two places. And I do believe that this administration is taking its future a little more serious than previous administrations. And that goes back, you know, probably, probably decades. And, and it's also because we, the US has been beat up, you know, fleeced. Europe is fleeced, and look at Europe now is a hot mess in so many different ways. So you, you think about, if you're saying, hey, we lost out on Africa for the most part, we need to lock down the Western Hemisphere. And I actually was putting that kind of in. In motion. North and South America. And I do a lot of work with the Caribbean central banks. And I started noticing and I'm down. Unfortunately, I have to go to places like the Cayman's, Saint Kitts because we meant a lot of their gold and silver coins. And I'm noticing military increases down there. And without saying too much, I started to realize they're doing what the Chinese have been doing, which is cutting deals, making sure they're aligned with what's going on in the region. And I would say for the most part, you would say the Caribbean definitely is heavier, US Centric, just historically. However, there's a few islands, there's a few places where the Chinese were building ports, they were building hotels, they were doing different things that you go, okay, Maybe it is benign, but that's influence, that's influence over know, who knows what. And then we watch, you know, suddenly second half of the, of 25, the, the US's military presence is increasing and they started in southern Caribbean really heavily. And then obviously we just took out the Venezuelan leader just a few weeks ago at the snap of a finger. And I feel like that's, that's just the start of Latin America. To me, it's going to go all the way down. And what I've been talking about, why silver is going up so hard, really, really cents around than doing so you had, I don't know if you were aware, most people were either sleeping in after their Thanksgiving Day or they're out shopping Black Friday or who knows, the Comex was shut down for a piece of Black Friday. There was a server error, the cooling room wasn't working, so they had to shut down gold and silver trading. And you know, I'm making calls, what's going on? No one had ever seen it. It didn't make a whole lot of sense. But what we did notice is there was a huge request. What we did notice is someone, someone had put in a request of withdrawal for so many ounces of silver that it was almost like, is this a mistake? And I think it was, don't hold me to it. I think it was like, almost like a third of the silver that was in New York was requested. And then suddenly the thing freezes, it started back up and they shut down options tradings, everything shut down. Then suddenly, you know, it comes back. Then Monday morning, there's no withdrawal requests, it's gone. And everyone's like, it must have been sort of a mistake. We don't know. My personal take is it was the Chinese. They were either testing our markets or just wanting a lot of it in one shot. And I'm guessing whether the US government was directly involved, the banks were, and I think it was J.P. morgan. And they probably said, hey, you can't take it from us, but we'll get it for you in other markets. And at that, right at that point, look up the price like we were in the 50s here, we've doubled. I mean, for silver to double in less than two months. This is historic. And it's not even that volatile. It's just like every day, every day. What I actually think has happened, and I, I've been talking, I've been talking about this, is that the JP Morgan owns and controls the largest stockpile silver in the world. A lot of people say oh well, they're always short. Well if you have inside knowledge based on someone who calls you that someone's a big buyer, could you flip your position in a moment's notice? Banks are profit centers. So I think what they did was so we called in the industry, they threw a blanket over all their inventory and said none of this is for sale. And then they went long, you know because they, they, they're always using, you know, whether doing covered calls, just outright hedges. And then these banks also control the mines that they're buying financing the mine, the material. So, so a lot of times people say oh well that bank is net short. But they actually bought the, they bought pre production ounces that are coming out of a mine every month. So it's really just, maybe they're just hedging and they're not, it's not a naked short. So there's a lot of misinformation out there. And now this new AI slop on, on X and YouTube is just, there's so much, it's all like half truths and information and then you've probably seen it and on all sorts of topics. So yeah, that, that took place. And I, and I do think that Chinese are, China is the highest level but also India and I'll get into why are they buying so much metal is going back to the military. The US is restricting or the ship. So we heard about members tankers were being seized from Venezuela. Because it's not just oil. We have plenty of oil. Oil is important. Absolutely. That's a metric. But there's no doubt that Latin America is where most the precious metals. That, that, that, that's, that that's a huge piece of it. So a lot of that what's called concentrate. So when you, you typically a typical mine either produces something like, think like a 40% grade. Some of them can internally do and produce something. Maybe if they have an on site small smelting operation they can get it to a doorway which is more like a 90% concentrate. So the refineries in the United States are only, they can't take concentrate because of EPA rules. So smelting is basically just think like burning, you're basically burning rock. You're, you're burning it to separate the materials. That's the first step. And then you do basically chemical and electrical processes to refine the material down to a high grade. So most of the smelting in the world is China. So this is really wild. So if China's getting choked on raw material, are they concerned about their Manufacturing. Are they concerned about their military production? Yes. So a lot of people are hearing about the Chinese have export controls on silver and they do. Why? It's because their feedstock is being, it's under pressure. So the US is us is basically locking down Western hemisphere. We can cover Greenland. You know, all, all this is, all this is really correlated to, to two things and I'm going to go with the military of the future is tech. It's, it's drones, it's heavy duty satellite. It's, I mean you can look up how, what metals go into a Tomahawk missile. If you don't have these minerals to do these things, you can't keep pumping, pumping things out. So China restricts their models on outbound. And so they're now reviewing who is buying the raw material, where is it going? And one of the big buyers was India. So India's like, wait, we can't buy as much as we need for our manufacturing from China right next door. So now India is on the open market buying silver as well. So, so here you have JP Morgan who says through a blanket and says it's not available. US then is pressuring raw material coming out of Latin America. China restricts. Now you see why silver is going up every day. That's this, it, it's, it's really this simple. And all the other factors we could talk about the monetary, the government spending. Yes. But this is why it's so acute and it's, why it's so happening. So I think I was, I think I, I posted today on X this, this is not going to stop until China in particular, China stops bidding. So when they come up for air and say we got enough for the moment, then we, we will probably see. You know, it's almost like who's going to blink first? Like how much do you have? And, but the thing is every time it's dipped a little bit, it gets bought up. And that's the other thing is that we're in mercantile banking. So if we have, if globalism is dead, we no longer trade. Well, you now have banks who sit in the middle. Most, many, many banks are multinational and so they will trade and buy. So a lot of these guys and a lot of these bankers can't even go on TV right now. They're not putting out research reports because they got, they have a, they have, they have an order in. And what that order is, Marty, is I have an order to buy so many of something I got to accumulate it quietly build a position. And so they're buying every day. Don't, don't let it go up too much. Let it come down and then they hit it again. So if you've got, and I think the US Government's probably involved in it too, because they put it on the strategic minerals. So they're probably buying, China's buying, JP Morgan's in the middle squeezing everybody. This is, it's, it's incredible. It's incredible. Watch. So I think I did a quick video about a week ago and said, hey, we were, I think in the 80s now we're at just over 100 today. And I'm like, this thing could go to 150, it could go to 50. It could happen all like in a matter of a week or two. It, it will be volatile. But I don't think, I think if we take a look at the whole complex, it's, it's really happened in all the minerals, all the metals and silver's just been running a structural deficit for years. It should, not this, it should not have been this cheap to begin with. And so if you look at cost of, to mine something, the, the, the primary silver miners have not been profitable for like forever, which is why the stocks have underperformed. And you kind of look forward, you go, well, it's just like farming, right? If farmers can't make money, they're going to stop growing crops. And then demand, if demand doesn't change but supply goes down, prices shoot up. So, yeah, that's kind of what's happening. That's what is probably the biggest driver right now.
- [23:18]
B
Well, I think that's a big question is how long does this go on? And really hearkening back to your comment about Trump's December 2024 tweet about the BRICs and the gold currency, I think another thing that happened over the last 12 months is China, I forget it was the PBOC or some CCP linked entity putting a ton of gold on warrant at the Shanghai exchange, which is from my understanding, a signal like, hey, we have this gold, we're going to prove we have it, we're going to put it on warrant, which signals we're going to put it to work in some way. So we're not backing down. Trump, is that a correct assessment of that move?
- [23:57]
A
Yeah, mean, obviously I'm kind of, it kind of started with gold. It shifted, you know, shifted into the other minerals. Right now silk, silver is the one under, under the, the spotlight right now. And you, you are correct. And the reality is, is you have to, you have to basically. And, and I think that's why the mon. The mon. I would take it. He knows there's a monetary reset coming. We can, most of us agree with it. The World Economic Forum believes in one vision for the people. I would say Trump probably represents the technocrats. I'm not saying we could all decide, it could all go very Orwellian. So I'm more of a liberty, freedom, who knows where we'll be in the future. But there's no doubt that there's a battle about how is that great reset and what are the mechanisms, what are the control factors, what are our lives going to be? Are we going to live in 15 minute cities, you know, or do we have pro programmable money? You know, Europe's about to roll that out. That could be freezed, paused, blacklisted. I mean there's so many things happening, but if so if you get all the resources, you also have to keep the resources. So I mean, whether you think it's gold or bitcoin, if you don't control the bitcoin mining, could someone conquer another nation and say, hey, I'm taking your resources, such as your data centers, your mining rigs. I mean, yeah, totally could. We're playing, I mean us just moved right into Venezuela. Moments notice. Now he's knocking on the door of Greenland. Who. So can China just do this to Taiwan tomorrow? I think the answer is yeah. So we're entering like I would say access and allies are being aligned and some countries are moving quicker. And then you got nations like Canada that's not paying attention. Like Carney's doing deals with China and you're on the border of the United States. Like that's, that's a game. And I would say he represents the World Economic Forum side if we start, you know. Yeah, I mean that's why there's a really interesting battle. But he's just, he's not, he's not getting it. I would say Mexico is probably going to get it. They're a narco ish run deal. And I think the Venezuela was a shot across the bow. And then the United States may undertake cartel military action. The sake of drugs. It's for the kids, right? Yeah, yeah. This is, this is like, I mean I grew up playing the risk board game, you know, that's. Hey, I'm not a fan of war by any means. We've lived in for the most part. I'm in my, my mid-40s, you know, fairly peaceful outside of 911 and some Gulf wars and. But yeah, we're entering, I think dangerous, dangerous times. Words matter, but what matters more is what you do. And that's, and that's what I think, you know. So going back to China. Hell yeah. They are loading up on gold. They are building vaults in all the brics nations. I know this first and foremost was contacted for consulting a couple years ago through, through someone else that got the contract to build vaults in a number of these countries. There's not many people that build vaults in the world and, and you know, so you get calls like that and they're building. Yeah, you're right. They're going to, they're going to set up gold and all in, in all its locations, all the. Then they, you know, I think you've got one. It's going to be all throughout southeast Asia and they're going to try to do the best they can because China's got problems too. China's economy's got problems. They, you know, they're not uss problems that we all have problems. And that's. And so, and so if no one really trusts, they're trying to go to a more trustless asset is what's happening.
- [28:16]
B
Yeah.
- [28:16]
A
And they want, they want out of, call it the u. S. Centric system.
- [28:21]
B
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- [30:02]
A
Gold warriors about not read that one.
- [30:04]
B
But it's a good one. But it feels like very similar in the sense of there's a war for gold right now. And it is, it is very interesting to watch behind the scenes. I mean from the monetary perspective again, going back to like the gold on Warrant Shanghai exchange and setting up the vault infrastructure, I mean it's pretty clear that China's sticking their hand up saying hey, you don't need to use the dollar system to settle anymore. We're going to set up all these vaults, put cold on warrant. You can technically do trade in yuan, but it's going to be backed by gold. You can swing it to your local currency or holding gold easily. It's happening right in front of us.
- [30:46]
A
And they built the plumbing before internally. They started promoting, they have a gold amusement park in China to. Yeah, to promote gold holdings of the Chinese citizens. And that's going to be my next comment of what, what's driving it. But then they required that insurance companies hold gold on their balance sheets. Like those are things that western banks don't do. Western banks, you know, you can walk into bank branches in Canada and buy gold and silver bars at the banks and my company produces some of it for TD bank for example. But in the US that doesn't, that doesn't exist. Gold's, gold's. Gold's a relic. It's a, it's a, it's a pet rock. You know those, those were the headlines on Wall Street Journal a few years ago trying to put the plumbing in before. And they're doing it. And so yeah, and now I have. You've seen videos of the Chinese people buying physical metal in their gold in the malls. It's not stopping. And so I think if we look at, I don't know if you've seen, you know, as a nation take even a smaller country as it goes from a third world to a second world to a first world, they, the consumption of energy, cotton for clothes goes up. Energy, you're using higher tech cell phones. So all your resources per capita go up. Well, not only that, but now they've got money. And so a lot of these Chinese businessmen, it's not just party members that have money. It's like the country's got legitimate money and so they're consuming more and more things. And so now here's also what's happening with silver. Silver is kind of used just as an industrial metal, not so much a precious metal. And now as it's going higher in price, feels more precious. And I mean what's wild is I bought my first silver when it was like $4 and 50 cents an ounce. So you could buy it, you know, it was a hundred ounce bar, let's say it's the size of this phone. You buy that for 450 bucks. Well now that, this bar, that bar is, you know, 20, roughly 20 years later, it's stinking 100 grand. Well you can think like in the eyes of foreign cultures that had gold as a precious metals, you know, Indians have gold in their dowries and so suddenly silver gets a little more interesting for people to want to own. And I think that's what's driving this as well is that in the, in, you know, 20 years ago, 10 years ago, the only markets that really mattered was US and Europe. That would drive. If there's some financial event, silicon even, even just got your Silicon Valley bank goes down. The Chinese don't care about that. Well now everything's like, it's, it's changed, it's, it's ch. And I think we've seen it even in the bitcoin space. You know, how many people own bitcoin in other countries. And it's just interesting to watch I guess. Estimates of where things are mined, those types of things. It's, it's, it's spread. And it's not just, it's not just the US that controls, it's just not US citizens that moves markets. Same thing with stable coins that, you know, that's a gigantic growing marketplace. So yeah, that, and that's a driver and that's not going to stop. And so this I would say and I'm, I'm also involved with people that consult for the biggest central banks. They're not stopping buy gold. You saw the news from Poland this week.
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B
I did not. I did not.
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A
Poland announced either a 20 or 25% increase this year in their gold holdings which would make them one of the most elite gold holding nations in the world. Like a top, a top 10. That would take their reserves up to 37% based on current value. 37% in gold. Check this out. One I believe roughly a third of what they're buying is going into New York. Once you start thinking historically war escrow financing, Poland's building, building a military, they're on the front lines. They're really not aligned with the eu. It wouldn't surprise me if they leave the eu so the central bank but they're not going to stop at 37%. The US dollar's cooked.
- [35:27]
B
Right?
- [35:28]
A
It is. And so whether you believe it's going to be one asset or another asset, frankly a lot of people don't know where to put it. And I just kind of look at these big players are buying gold on a regular basis and they're, they're, this is like it's a kind of an easy investment right now even at these levels. I'll tell you why, because these entities that are buying it and I think this is kind of even the headwind for bitcoin at this moment is it's kind of like Michael Saylor was doing fantastic for a while getting things going but he's taking out debt to make purchases and trying to tell other people hey to do this. And obviously there's a big push for strategic reserves and getting governments into it. Well why do everyone governments to get into it because they have unlimited debt, fake money. That's that that's what's happened. So they can just print fiat every single month and buy whatever they want you wanna until the economy topples over like Zimbabwe. But for the most part that's, that's what India is doing, that's what Poland's doing. They, they can just issue more, buy more.
- [36:41]
B
And now Switzerland's been doing it.
- [36:42]
A
Switzerland. Now this is also interesting when you buy gold the new Basel 3 regulations, it's a hundred percent risk free asset if it's in physical form. I believe it's 90% if it's in a paper form of gold like an etf. Now they want the physical that officially.
- [37:01]
B
Triggers this year right at some point this Year?
- [37:03]
A
Yeah, yeah. It was supposed to be last year. It was delayed. It's been delayed a little bit. But a lot of the banks are frankly positioning with it. So they're modifying, they're modifying some of their, their holdings and so it basically just think like it boosts their credit and I, and some of the headwind, you know, I think you know, poor and I, I love you know what's going down in El Salvador and you know, with, with Bukele. The moment he bought bitcoin he got put on the nasty list with bankers. They didn't want to give loans. It was like it was as if it was worth nothing. And then worse when he did that and so they didn't even look at it like an asset. And so this is, I think this is, this has been some of the headwind for seeing other nations do it in a big way. Obviously I think we're seeing is it. Bhutan is doing some interesting you that are like, hey, let's be a little unique, let's be a little different. Maybe we can get ahead of the curve.
- [38:06]
B
Ethiopia has gotten into bitcoin mining in a big way.
- [38:08]
A
Yeah.
- [38:09]
B
Argentina's talking about it.
- [38:10]
A
Yeah. Yeah. And so it's fun to kind of watch the, the various and, and those guests that don't, don't know. While I'm in the precious metals business for nearly two, two decades and then mining before that, I've also been in the bitcoin world as well for quite a while and hold it on my balance sheets at Scottsdale Mint and have for longer than Michael Saylor has been in it. So I, so I like it. You know, I like it and I'm just not a maximalist. I, I'm a, I'm a class, I'm a classic asset guy and I like also like the new school. So. And frankly, why. Because what happens if bitcoin and bitcoin does become the dominant player? I don't think gold goes to zero, but let's just say bitcoin has a gigantic role to play. I want to make sure I'm in it. That's a, what do you call that? A just in case bag, you know. But, but, but realistically it, it has performed quite well. Amazingly. It's obviously been, it's been a bit boring in the last, you know, 2025, but that's just what happens. Everyone is expecting these cycles to always perform. Exactly. And, but yeah. So I'm, I'm, I'm, I'm always open. You know, you always want to be open minded, watch history, pay attention and move. Kind of going back to the board. Move the chips on the board as you see it and try to adjust your personal life, your business, whatever.
- [39:42]
B
There are cracks in the foundations of your money. Governments around the world are managing record debt the same way they always have by debasing their currencies. And the effects are already showing up across markets. In his report the Debasement Trade, James Lavish explains why the shift is reshaping portfolios, why gold tends to act first, and why bitcoin often follows as the implications become clearer. On January 28, James joins Unchained Live for the Age of Debasement a presentation and Q and A, expanding on that research and exploring what this environment means for long term investors. If the playbook no longer explains what you're seeing, this event helps put the pieces together. Register now and get early access to the report@ Unchained.com TFTC that's Unchained.com TFTC sup freaks? This rip is brought to you by good friends at Silent Silent creates everyday Faraday gear that protects your hardware. We're in bitcoin. We have a lot of hardware that we need to secure your wallet. Emits signals that can leave you vulnerable. You want to pick up silence gear, put your hardware in that. I have a tap signer right here. I got the silent cardholder replace my wallet. I was using Ridge wallet because it's secured against RFID signal jacking. Silent. The cardholder does the same thing. It's much sleeker, fits in my pocket much easier. I also have the Faraday phone sleeve which you can put a hardware wallet in. We're actually using it for our keys at the house too. There's been a lot of robberies. They have essential Faraday slings, Faraday backpacks. It's a bitcoin company. They're running on a bitcoin standard. They have a bitcoin treasury. They accept bitcoin via strike. So go to slnt.comtftc to get 15% off anything or simply just use the code TFTC when shopping@slnt.com Patented technology Special operations approved. It has free shipping as well. So go check it out. No, it's, it's so fascinating. We just hit 102 on silver. I got the chart up here. It's and that's it's so you can go many routes from here. I definitely want to touch on Greenland but like thinking about like the dollar being cooked, like it's obvious that to me at least and to many others that it's cooked or something going on. It's just being expressed in gold, in silver prices and maybe Bitcoin at some point later this year. And I feel like.
- [41:46]
A
What are your.
- [41:46]
B
Thoughts on the Trump administration's understanding of this? Because publicly I hit the posture. We want the dollar to be strong. I think a lot of the push for the stable coins is to drive demand for Treasuries. But they're also sort of, if they are actually pulling physical gold into the country, they understand something's going on, but they have to play this narrative game as all this is happening.
- [42:10]
A
I'm going to go with. So I had one of, one of my, one of the, one of Scottsdale Mint's customers on a wholesale level rented an office from Trump more than a decade ago. Pre, pre politics. You know how they paid the deposit? Gold.
- [42:31]
B
Gold.
- [42:32]
A
He took it and they'd made a press release. Adam. And he was there standing, holding it. He likes gold. And the funniest way is he, you know, Trump, Trump is like the master of memes. He's, he, he's whether, whether he does the memes or he, he does things to have memes happen. Look at the Oval Office. That thing is all gold now. Like all the frames, the frames, everything. And actually, and I've got, it's a, it's a friend of mine did a, owns a, he owns a statue production company and they just put in a gold plated it. If you look at the Oval Office, you see a constitution with an eagle on top of it. He just, he just made that for, for Trump. He did some stuff for him in Mar? A Lago. It's also gold plated. I almost feel like he's signaling even when they say look there, there could be, there could be other messaging. When they call it a golden, it's the golden era. It's the golden age. But it's also could be a little mimetic a little bit. And, and look, when I say the dollar's cooked, that doesn't mean we won't have a US Dollar. It just might have to be reformulated in, in, in something. And that's the other thing. I actually got blamed the other day on a podcast because I said never bet against America. And so oftentimes I think people that are in alternative assets, you get so disappointed with government. And yes, but I also say is like what's the alternative? What, what other, what other government do you do? Do we trust? And then the United States has vast resources just as Geographic location. Even if there was a world war and it didn't come out well, the United States, just like Europe, a lot of Europe lost, but it was so strategic that it had a role to play in the future. And that's kind of the sad thing about a war. Like, even if, even if Ukraine and Russia chop up whatever, does it really matter to the farmers in the fields when it's all said and done? Maybe, maybe not. It's just it stinks when people have to die. But like the United States, I would say, yeah, Trump gets it. And I would say this administration is way more pro business. And so, oh, I forgot to mention U. S. Department of War. I put out a article on it. I think I was one that broke it because I, I, I was like, how did everyone miss this? The U.S. department of War put two billion dollars into a smelter. That's what in Tennessee, two billion, it's a seven billion dollar smelter. And so okay, check, check this out. So they're going back, you can't take, there's no con, there's no smelters in the United States in 50 years. So it took the US military to say we're going to do it and we're going to put it in Tennessee and we're going to use the Koreans technology to fast track it. And guess who's financing the whole deal? J.P. morgan. And now that material, obviously it's going to take a little time to get built out, but that material can be routed into the United States instead of going to other countries and it can be processed. And so as smelters you're processing those minerals, guess what else you get? Rare earths, all kinds of stuff. So, and in that deal the Koreans had to pledge, you can look at it, it's called Korea Zinc. And if you want to type in Korea Zinc smelt or Tennessee or better yet, go to scottstonemint.com on my new we posted the article that kind of blew it open and it basically says because of this deal, the US Gets more rights to more offtake out of Korea, more and more strategic minerals. So this is where it's like how long could a bank go if they're pre, see what I mean? Like they're, they're pre purchasing production at the like. So they're locking it. You know, who knows, you know their terms on all these deals. It's really, it's really, it's really quite wild. And so as you, you see all this going on, you're like, yeah, it's taking the, so I go back. Yeah, this administration knows what's going down. I, I, I feel it, I see it. I'm, I'm off to Europe. I'm speaking, I'm off to Europe on, on a couple days and then a few more weeks. I'm speaking at an event in Florida. I'm on a panelist with the World Gold Council and one of the top Dan, Dan Golly of TD securities who's, who's kind of took it a little bit hard because he kind of thoughts over with Depp recently. So I'm on a panel so those guys and, and you know who's in the crowd of these events now?
- [47:32]
B
Government, treasury representatives, State Department. Yeah.
- [47:39]
A
And without saying, I can't say too, too much. But it's not that they just woke up. They've always been. But it is so important to this administration that I haven't seen anything like this. Yeah, trade deals, relationships, you know, basically they're building the, they're building, making sure the rails are in place for the future, for manufacturing, for jobs, for security. If you, if you lose the AI race, you're, you're done. You, you will not be the leader of the future. So you need, you need all of it.
- [48:11]
B
Yeah, it's a, it's a mad dash for everything right now.
- [48:15]
A
It's, it is a mad dash for everything and that's why it's ex, it's exciting to own things where there's a hidden hand behind you like the biggest of the big and the big who could just fictitiously buy it and that. And that's what we're seeing. And so I would say to the listeners what we're watching right now, I would say some could call it a new world order. I would call it, it's a paradigm shift. We are entering a new, we're going into a new financial system. We're going into a new trade system. We're going into. Everything's going to change and frankly, there's gonna be a lot of things that we're not even talking about that's going to happen that what we're going to learn about. So I don't, I don't see this. It's not, it is, I would say this, it's, this is not a trade. It's not a trade. This is, this is a shift. This is a shift. And so it will be volatile, as I mentioned earlier, but I feel pretty comfortable. If you want to talk about the, the fair Sinclair rat, As you mentioned, I, I, why I'm in this business is. So I graduated with a degree in risk management out of Florida State. I'm just, I'm 22. I'm working for what, what's now Willis Towers Watson. It's a big insurance broker. And I remember I met this old timer guy, he was talking to me about copper. It was like 40 cents a pound. He's talking about the Chinese manufacturing their consumption of minerals. The Olympics are coming, they're building these dams. They're like. He's like son, if you buy copper right now you're going to be a wealthy man. I'm 22. I have not a lot of money. I put, I maxed all my credit cards and I bought some, I bought some mining stocks. And you know what? When copper broke a baka pound I did quite well. And kind of understanding that suddenly I said hey, I'm going to go after mining companies as a career. And So I was 24 years old, landed a billion dollar gold mining company and then I just solved their problems. Did all kinds of things from trade credit, insuring their accounts receivables to. I did political risk. I did projects in Latin America. I did a political risk program. The $120 million deal in Venezuela for a gold mining company that I might put it in a book at some point. It was, it was nationalized but. And it went to the World bank for about 10 years. It settled just a few years ago for 700 and something million dollars. And I was involved with that company years ago. So I'm just way too young, experiencing, learning things young. And so that one mining company got into another. And so like if you look at the biggest silver miners and copper miners and I worked with all of them in my twenties and now I'm friends with some of the CEOs of these groups and because they were, they were younger when they were at those companies and so. But one of the guys that kind of inspired me on the precious metal side was a guy named Jim Sinclair. And he in the 70s was probably the, the, the biggest precious metals trader in the world, but not necessarily all that well known. He made a call in 19 I believe was 72 that you know, gold was in the 1/ hundreds. Gold's gonna go to. Gold's gonna go to 900 at the end of the decade. 1980 hits 88750 was the top day after. I think he's on like Bloomberg radio or something. And he said it hit my number. I'm out. Paul Volcker just raised 4 full percentage points. 4.0 in one day he goes, gold's done for a while. I'm out. So he was out for basically two decades. Nine, 11 hits. And he starts watching the US government spend, spend, spend, spend, spend. And he goes, I'm back. And he goes, gold is like 200 and something. I think it's been traded 225, 250. He goes, 1651, 650. That sounds like a penny stock. He goes, you guys don't remember me, do you? So I'll go back. Oh, he was such a good trader. Paul Volcker hired him to liquidate Punt brother's silver position.
- [52:58]
B
Really?
- [52:59]
A
To unwind that. Yeah. So he well known. Oh it was also on the COVID of Fortune magazine dubbed Mr. Gold. So he comes back and says, hey, gold's going to 1650. And. But he was like, you guys don't remember how I came up with the number? It's, there's a ratio. He goes, during times of financial crisis, foreign central banks value the reserve currency of the world in gold as what's the foreign debt of the United States and then the stated gold holdings and at what price does it need to be to balance? In 2011 he said it would be about 10 years. 2011, gold hit 18. It went over 1800 and 50. Jim, I would say I used to fly to see him, talk with him and he, he was on. I would say if he was alive today, I think he'd be revered, proud. It's just, he just wasn't that well known. But he was on CNBC and Bloomberg a lot. You can go back and find him. And so I was on a kit go. I was on a kitco podcast last year and I'm like, I'm bringing this ratio back and I'm gonna call it the fair Sinclair because we're gonna go would ever believe. And I want to kind of help like provide those guide posts so you know, you can go on Gro and say, tell me about the Fair Sinclair with, with a fair. With a P ratio and it'll kind of explain, you know, that mechanism. And right now that ratio is at 35,000 for gold. So it, I was born in late 79, so in. In it hit that ratio two times so far. Is it going to hit it again? But I think this is where it gets interesting. Marty, what do you think the US is going to have more debt coming? More foreign debt, or is it going to just stay flat?
- [55:04]
B
Probably, probably go up, right?
- [55:07]
A
So realistically that number is going to go up. So it doesn't mean it's a straight shot, but I think that's where. That's where. When people start to think about. And I've been in the space long enough like. Like when. When gold crossed a thousand people, like, no one's gonna buy an ounce of gold. And it's. Now it's. You know, it's. Everyone buys it a lot. Not everyone, but it's. It's. It's vibrant. And the same thing with silver. Silver hits 10 bucks, no one's gonna buy it. 20 bucks, no one's gonna buy it. And. And it just kind of keeps going. And a lot of people go, this doesn't make sense. It's speculative. These prices, that they don't make sense. But these are historical ratios. And if. And frankly, if you were to reprice a lot of these assets in S P terms and all these things, you're like, man, gold and silver. That's what I was saying in the. Early in our talk. It's catching up to where it probably should have been, frankly, just recently. And the reason was going back to the auction, There wasn't enough people in the. In the. In the arena bidding. So now you got the Chinese government, who's a force, and then you got the United States. They're all bidding on it. So this is. It's finding. So it's finding a new equilibrium. And if you're a consumer who's, you know, you're just retail and you've. You've owned it. I mean, how many grandpas probably bought coins, you know, you know, for $2, $4? And I know because our vault, like, we're getting calls from people that are like, I have millions of dollars in my basement. What do I do with it? And we're helping to get it transferred in to a vault that's audited statements. And if something happens to grandpa, you know, for example, you know, their estate knows what they're able. They got liquidity. They know it's real, it's been authenticated. These are not problems that people didn't have that problem before. So it's kind of wild watching, you know, the industry kind of been proven right. I would say people were just early. And I. Then that's. Frankly, that's the same thing probably with a lot of other assets. You can be early. It just wasn't the right timing. Whether you, you know, how many times even take bitcoin, how many times do people think they bought the top only. And you just. Just give it a few more years. And. And you know what? It wasn't a bad entry and dollar cash cost averaging in so it's, it's been kind of fun to watch this journey. I thought it was all going to go down by 2010. Like I thought the dollar would end like just. And here we are, it's 2026 and, and I would still say this is going to be a long journey. To me it feels like 2030, 2032. You know you kind of even look at when people are talking about trying to do a reset but you know, things could be delayed, this thing could keep going, you know, much longer in terms of the journey. But so that's how I'm kind of seeing it. So yeah, that, that Ferris and Claire ratio thing, it actually, it means a lot to me because I would say Jim was a mentor and he kind of pushed me into the space and how I got into the business. I was originally working with mining companies but I kind of had to wait for them to do something to have fun with it. And you know, 2008 hit the financial crisis. Homes were, you know, real estate was falling apart. Silver was, you know, upper single digits at the time and you couldn't get it and, but I had contacts in the industry so I started my guest bedroom in a condo, started buying silver because I could get a hold of it and sling it on ebay. So my wife was my first packager, my first employee and you know, off we go. So now I'm in a facility where it's, I think we're under 60,000 square feet right now, so, and still expanding. And so I feel blessed from the Lord for good knowledge, patience. It has not been easy always in life and you know, things. Sometimes, sometimes people buy things out of greed and I think you got to have passion. And so I in there and there were times where, you know, friends tell me, Josh, I buy gold a bit. Don't. No, don't. Because I didn't, you know, it was a, it was kind of a dead asset for a number of years and, and you know, where you could dump better out and better in real estate. And so why I don't like to give exact predictions on, on when to buy, when to sell it, but it is something I'm long term passionate about, I believe in and it's so it's been, you know, as I'm getting a lot of congratulations from, from people and I'm like not, not really. I, I feel good. You can, you can be in a business that's just kind of grifting, let's call it grifting off of people, but when you're in an asset that could potentially change people's lives or protect them. And, and I still believe that, you know, going forward. And that doesn't mean that it's always going to be dead, dead accurate on your timing or whatever, but it's, it's fun to be in a space that you, you, you, you have a passion for and you believe in for sure.
- [60:23]
B
I know that wholeheartedly similar why I'm in Bitcoin. And I mean, I don't want to get too preachy when you mentioned the Lord. And I think, I think there is like a moral aspect to this too. Like, I think the truth is on our side, like the world should operate on sound money and the people.
- [60:43]
A
Look, there's always knuckleheads in every industry, but I would say like a lot of my, A lot of my customer base, you know, through the years, really good people. A lot of people that would. Would call Jesus Christ their savior. It. It's people that maybe didn't get as bamboozled during COVID It's people that are, you know, sometimes people would say, oh, you're, you know, I would say the conspiracy theorist thing, obviously we all know a lot of that is, is. Is fabricated by Alphabet agencies, but a lot of it's being proven true. But I think there, there's a, there is a good quality of, of people in, in the space in, in. In Bitcoin as well. And it. Sometimes it gets. There's gravitose people out there that are a little too bombastic in their success or whatever. And. But I would say, yeah, to your point, be a steward of your knowledge, be a steward of your resources, your skills in what you do. And just for me, it's give glory to the Lord and what you do.
- [61:50]
B
Yeah, same here. And I think it's just getting started too, because when you factor everything we just discussed, if we're going into this multipolar world with increased social incohesion and saber rattling and a mad dash to win the AI war and the energy war and reshore, like they're gonna have to print so much money over the next decade, it just makes too much sense. There's no other way to do it.
- [62:18]
A
Right. Yeah. And that's. And that's also why I don't root for the downfall. I. Look, I want the United States to succeed, and maybe there's a pathway through all this to the other side and. But you can't, you can't stress it, but I would say to people that aren't positioned in some of these alternative assets that we're talking about, you know, Bitcoin included is you're on the outside looking in. And I do, I do think you live here, you work here for the most part. For those. If you're watching this in the US you're really tied to the US Economy or wherever economy you're at. And so oftentimes some of these assets do better, I mean, do a little bit better than when the rest of the economy is not doing great. And there's no doubt, I think there's been some element in the crypto world liquidity's gotten tight. You know, they, you know, it obviously boomed in, you know, kind of that 20, 21. It was like the roaring 20s of, of 100 years ago in 21. And that'll come back again, you know, when people have, you know, and right now people are just feel pinched. You know, they're pinched at the grocery store and everywhere. But you know, there's going to be liquidity events to come and they're going to inject money in, into the system and people just got to figure out what to buy again. And you could go buy a new car or go buy some, go buy some sound money. So that I would, I would say, yeah, it's going to be a long journey ahead. And it's not. I, I still don't think it's too late. It's, it's, it's not too late, you know, in, in this.
- [64:05]
B
No, not at all. And I think another thing too, I think it's important to separate the.
- [64:13]
A
The.
- [64:13]
B
Government from the people too. Like, I wholeheartedly believe in America because I believe in the American spirit despite what the mainstream media and a relatively depressing time in terms of like, so, like, yes, like the silent depression, if you will. Obviously deaths of despair and obviously wage growth isn't keeping up with inflation and there's a lot of people struggling out there. But I do still believe, despite all that, the American spirit is alive and well and that sort of wildcatter, go get stuff done, go out there and make something for yourself and for your community still exists and is unique.
- [64:55]
A
Thank you for saying that. I would still say, yeah, why the institution of our nation is struggling mightily and could falter the. The construct of the people. Then there are maybe not a lot of great people here too, but I would say on a percentage basis versus anywhere else in the world. Yeah, don't bet against America, the people, you know, and I think that's yeah, that. That I think gives. I think it does give hope to. To. To families, to communities. You know, you can turn on the news and get really frustrated, and it sure feels like the algorithm is pushing stuff to make you feel really mad and frustrated. And so sometimes you got to realize, hey, what are they trying to get me to think, like, right now?
- [65:51]
B
Yeah, completely agree. I think that's a good. A good note to end on. Don't short the American spirit, the people of America.
- [65:59]
A
I like it.
- [65:59]
B
Prevail.
- [66:00]
A
I like it. But like I said to someone else, never bet against America, but you still might want to own some other assets. So for sure, I think.
- [66:13]
B
I think. I think America is going to be rebuilt. We're going to have a golden age. I think the mimetic sort of normalization of the golden age is real. I think I'm optimistic we will reorient the economy around sound money. Whether it's bitcoin, gold, silver, combination two or three, I think it's there. I mean, particularly with the software tools that exist for bitcoin, it's never been easier to incorporate sound money into your business, into your life. I think we're. We're on the path to do that. You got to stay optimistic, too. You can't do them. Never do them. No dooming in the chat.
- [66:49]
A
No, no, you can be real, but you got to be optimist. And I think there's always something to smile about in your life. And I think even, you know, for those listening, seriously, there, there is. There's a friend out there somewhere. There is. There is hope out there. And even, like, yeah, the way social media is, you can get warped into the. The doom. The doom circle. So totally agree with you on that.
- [67:20]
B
All right, let's go out there and win.
- [67:21]
A
Let's go.
- [67:22]
B
Have a good weekend. Safe travels to Europe. And we should catch up. We shouldn't wait almost a year to catch up. Let's catch up.
- [67:28]
A
Absolutely.
- [67:29]
B
Maybe in the beginning of this summer.
- [67:31]
A
Let's do it, Marty. Appreciate it. All right.
- [67:33]
B
Peace, love, freaks. Thank you for listening to this episode of tftc. If you've made it this far, I imagine you got some value out of the episode. If so, please share it far and wide with your friends and family. We're looking to get the word out there also, wherever you're listening, whether that's YouTube, Apple, Spotify, make sure you like and subscribe to the show. And if you can, leave a rating on the podcasting platforms, that goes a long way. Last but not least, if you want to get these episodes a day early and ad free, make sure you download the Fountain podcasting app. You can go to Fountain FM to find that $5 a month gets you every episode a day early ad free helps. The show gives you incredible value, so please consider subscribing via Fountain as well. Thank you for your time and until next time.