Podcast Summary
Podcast: TFTC: A Bitcoin Podcast
Episode: #710 – Q4 2025 Monetary Base Update with Matthew Mežinskis
Host: Marty Bent
Guest: Matthew Mežinskis
Date: January 31, 2026
Overview
In this episode, Marty Bent hosts Matthew Mežinskis for their seventh annual Q4 global monetary base update. They take a data-driven tour through current trends in Bitcoin, gold, and silver—with deep dives into mining revenue, valuation ratios, monetary trends, and the macroeconomic and geopolitical context. Key questions explored: How is Bitcoin performing relative to gold and silver in 2025? Are historical narratives about cycles and parities holding up? Is the monetary system itself at a tipping point? The discussion expands from hard numbers to network theory, the structure of global money creation, and the wider context of information warfare and sovereignty.
The tone is data-heavy yet conversational, with moments of humor and sober reflections on freedom, disinformation, and the future of money.
Key Discussion Points & Insights
1. State of the “Monetary Race”: Bitcoin, Gold, and Silver
- Mining Revenue Comparison:
- Bitcoin mining revenue for the trailing 12 months holds steady around $17B, roughly where it was during prior cycle peaks (2021), indicating resilience or consolidation rather than a classic "boom-bust" pattern (04:23, 05:08).
- Silver mining revenue currently at ~$34B; gold at a record $400B; oil revenue dwarfs all at $2T (08:00).
- Quote:
“$17 billion for Bitcoin—still a less than 20-year asset class… This is going to follow the power curve… but it should be a fun ride.” – Matthew (09:40)
- Asset Class Maturation:
- Despite being only 17 years old, Bitcoin’s mining revenue is already half of silver and a significant fraction compared to legacy assets (10:45).
- Long-term comparisons show Bitcoin’s “catch-up” or “re-pricing” relative to gold/silver is ongoing.
2. Silver, Gold, and Bitcoin: Historical Price Trends & Cycles
- Silver’s Volatility:
- Silver is on a historic tear with current prices at multi-decade highs. This has excited “silver bugs” but also signals possible overextension (11:10–13:49).
- Multiple Over Trend:
- Both gold and silver are at extreme percentiles vs. historical exponential trendlines: silver hitting unprecedented “multiples” over trend; only three comparable spikes (Hunt Brothers, 2011, now).
- Statistical Warnings:
- Matthew advises caution to silver bulls: “How many silver mines… look attractive right now at these prices, but might not be a few months from now?” (12:41)
- Bitcoin, though not immune to cycles, appears less prone to these types of booms and busts.
3. Bitcoin Relative Valuation: Power Law and “Cheapest Ever” Metrics
- Power Curve in Dollar & Metal Terms:
- Bitcoin’s broader price history fits a power-law curve rather than a strict exponential, pointing to a unique, sustainable network effect. Annualized gains about 42% (declining over time), median trajectory near $127K/BTC in 2025 (15:07–17:00).
- BTC/Silver & BTC/Gold Ratios:
- In late 2025, it takes about 785 ounces of silver or 17 ounces of gold to buy one BTC, which is “the cheapest it’s ever been” vs. the statistical trend (18:38–22:25, 38:10–41:45).
- Quote:
“Relative to the trend, this is actually the cheapest it’s ever been. How much longer are silver bugs going to get this deal on bitcoin?” – Matthew (19:43)
- Cycle Theories in Question:
- Discussion of whether the absence of a “big boom” in this cycle means less probability of a deep bust.
4. Market Sentiment and Social Signals
- On-the-Ground Indicators:
- Stories of long lines at silver coin shops (“toppy signal”) reflect heightened speculation and possible market peaks (20:40).
- Gold & Central Banks:
- Despite headlines about sovereign gold demand (mainly from China, Poland), total CB gold buying is rising at “less than 1% a year compounded”—not enough, in Matthew’s view, to justify gold’s recent extreme price surge (24:55–29:39).
- Quote:
“Central bank now only holds 16% of the US’s debt and that leaves room for the bazooka when the new Fed chair comes in… I’m not defending any of this… but… they have left themselves some space.” – Matthew (28:27)
5. Bitcoin’s Unique Supply Dynamics
- Difficulty Adjustment as Smoothing Mechanism:
- Unlike precious metals, Bitcoin’s supply schedule and algorithmic difficulty prevent the wild overexpansion of mining and subsequent busts.
- Quote:
“The beautiful thing about bitcoin is bitcoin does not have these problems… the cure for high prices is high prices… Bitcoin doesn’t have that problem because of the difficulty adjustment.” – Matthew (36:51)
- Relative Undervaluation:
- Marty presses on Bitcoin “doing nothing” amidst gold/silver rallies; Matthew’s answer: trend is your friend; network adoption and power curve remain intact, with rare opportunities for inter-asset repricing.
6. The Money Supply and Its (Weak) Correlation with Bitcoin
- Correlation Cautions:
- Matthew remains skeptical of attempts to time BTC price with broad or base money supply numbers. Money supply growth does support long-term appreciation, but cycles don’t align neatly (49:18–55:06).
- Quote:
“If I thought that there was a direct correlation between the money supply and the bitcoin price, I just don’t see it… the power curve is going to give you a better guide.” – Matthew (49:25)
- Data Lags and Methodology Challenges:
- US broad money (M3) is not published since 2006; Matthew has reconstructed newer estimates (~$37T) for more “backwards compatibility” in his models (56:54).
- Stablecoin Yields & System Sustainability:
- Exponential financial assets, including stablecoins and their yields, are “typically unsustainable” over long periods compared to Bitcoin’s sustainable, decelerating power law trajectory (61:57–66:57).
7. Network Power Law, Global Lens, and Comparative Currency Strength
- Network Theory Validated:
- The unique aspect of Bitcoin: its price expresses the actual state of network adoption—unlike the dot-com era, you can own the network, not just speculate on it (67:03–67:30).
- Quote:
“It’s so incredibly cool that… we’re observing… network adoption [in bitcoin], and it has a price attached to it to express the state… which is unique in a sense, correct?” – Marty (67:03)
- BTC vs. Global Currencies:
- In weaker currencies (Iranian rial, Turkish lira), Bitcoin’s price is far above the central bank monetary base, already “destroying” the local currency at a power law pace (68:37–74:36).
- For major currencies (euro, USD), Bitcoin is behind—but growth projections suggest a catch-up within the decade.
- Macro Power Dynamics:
- The “free world” (US, NATO, allies) still holds the biggest share of global base money; China and Russia, despite narratives, are monetary small players. (“Dictator bingo” and fiat “shitmoney barometer” segments set a humorous but serious tone.) (75:22–80:56, 83:44)
8. Geopolitics, Disinformation, and Freedom
- Parallel Struggles:
- The discussion turns to the weaponization of information and political polarization:
- Russia/China/Iran engaged in information warfare designed to exacerbate social division in the US and Europe (85:12–89:06).
- Reference to Yuri Bezmenov (ex-KGB defector): warning about infiltration, demoralization, and takeover of Western societies (86:15).
- Matthew repeatedly urges skepticism and vigilance:
“Be very careful. The disinformation is massive now… and only growing.” (89:33)
- The discussion turns to the weaponization of information and political polarization:
- Eastern European Perspective:
- Matthew voices pride and resolve as a Baltic resident, emphasizing lived experience with autocracy, the value of sovereignty, and unwavering support for freedom (90:00–93:41).
- Optimism: Despite drama, the broad “free world” is holding together, and even in the US, “we’re nowhere near totalitarianism, the gulag, or concentration camp systems” (90:00–94:26).
Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments
-
On Bitcoin’s Historical Context:
“In the world of fiat currencies, Bitcoin is the victor. I mean that's part of the bull case for bitcoin.” – Matthew (00:07)
-
On Silver’s “Toppy” Signals:
“If you got lines at silver shops, yes, I would say that's a very, very much of a toppy signal.” – Matthew (21:08)
-
On Network Effects and Power Law:
“Bitcoin will dominate whatever you compare it to, and the power curve will dominate… a better R squared than the USD price, way tighter.” – Matthew (68:15–69:51)
-
On Present Undervaluation:
“This is as cheap as it’s ever going to get for silver. Keep that in mind.” – Matthew (109:05)
-
On Information Warfare:
“The best export that the Russians have is chaos. And it's only growing...More if you're not aware to it, like, I would strongly suggest you tune your antennas.” – Matthew (102:51–103:31)
Segment Timestamps
| Segment | Timestamps | |--------------------|---------------| | Bitcoin, Gold, Silver Mining Revenues & Price Cycles | 00:07 – 13:49 | | Power Law and Ratio Analytics | 13:49 – 22:25 | | Gold, Silver, BTC Market Sentiment | 22:25 – 32:39 | | Central Banks, Global Money Flows | 24:55 – 35:59 | | Bitcoin’s Supply, Difficulty Adjustment, and Volatility vs Metals | 35:49 – 38:10 | | BTC/Gold/Silver Undervaluation & Network Effects | 38:10 – 44:34 | | Money Supply, Broad/M3, Stablecoins | 49:18 – 66:57 | | Comparative Power Curves: BTC vs Global Currencies | 67:03 – 80:56 | | Global Base Money, Macro Power, “Free World” | 74:36 – 83:44 | | Geopolitics, Russia, Information Warfare | 85:05 – 108:53 | | Closing Remarks & Takeaway | 109:01 – 109:10 |
Tone and Language
The conversation is both rigorous and irreverent, with plentiful “bullish” notes for bitcoin but also realism regarding market cycles and geopolitics. Matthew blends dry humor with analytical seriousness, while Marty interjects practical questions and challenges. The duo regularly drop lines that are part warning, part celebration, of the times.
Takeaway
If you’re a gold or silver bull, savor the moment—but realize, per Matthew and the data, that the reversion to mean (and Bitcoin’s repricing) may come swiftly. For Bitcoiners feeling FOMO about missed metals rallies: The trend remains your friend, network adoption is on track, and power law growth is fundamentally more sustainable than exponential “everything pump” financialization.
On the broader scale, the bitcoin story remains inseparable from the struggle for freedom, honest money, and navigating a new era of information war and monetary turbulence.
Memorable Closer:
“Bitcoin’s cheap compared to gold and silver. You heard it here first.” – Marty (109:01)
“This is as cheap as it’s ever going to get for silver. Keep that in mind.” – Matthew (109:05)