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- [00:07]
Mel Madison
You've had a dynamic where money's become freer than free. If you talk about a Fed just gone nuts, all, all the central banks going nuts. So it's all acting like safe haven. I believe that in a world where central bankers are tripping over themselves to devalue their currency, Bitcoin wins.
- [00:25]
Marty
In the world of fiat currencies, Bitcoin is the victor.
- [00:29]
Mel Madison
I mean, that's part of the bull case for Bitcoin. If you're not paying attention, you probably should be. Probably should be. Probably should be.
- [00:37]
Marty
Mel Madison, welcome back to the show, sir.
- [00:40]
Mel Madison
Well, thank you for having me, Marty. I appreciate it.
- [00:43]
Marty
Yeah. Well, we're going to talk about a lot of things today, AI Is it real? Is it hype? Is it a mixture of the two? We've got the Fed, obviously Wash has taken the helm since we last spoke. We've got some micro stuff to talk about in terms of individual memory stocks that you're following. And then we can get into the fiscal side of things, how much debt the US Federal government is and how they can sustain that debt and all the entitlement programs that they build up and then probably ending it with scopusent. Call for a new economic regime at the New York Economic Club a couple weeks ago, which has been a hot topic in my circles. We covered it this morning on the weekly show I do with my partner John Arnold at 10:31 and I'd love to get your thoughts on that, but I think just starting with the hottest chick in the room right now, which is A.I. how are you reading this?
- [01:41]
Mel Madison
Well, A.I. is definitely one of two main forces that I see driving markets right now. I think it's AI and then what I want to just kind of encapsulate because a lot, there's a lot of interplay is just kind of geomacro stuff. And you know, that's Iran, that's Ukraine, that's the Fed, that's fiscal deficits. And those are things that, the reason I categorize those together is because they're not related to like earnings. Right. So another simple way to say it is what's going on in the broad market, like broad macro and what's going on with earnings and company specific. And earnings are all about AI And I, I just cannot see a way that AI is going away. Like, I think there's a lot of people out there that are talking about, you know, who's going to be the winners, who's going to be the losers. And I do agree that's not the Easiest game to play. But I do think there are certain segments that it's very hard to argue. Like for example, why SK Hynix at four times PE should be trading cheaper than it is. If you say Mel, what's the base case where Micron at seven times forward earnings is just, the earnings are going to fall off the cliff between now and the end of the decade. And I just can't picture that case because it's like, okay, is it going to be open source or closed source, who knows? But at the end of the day, if compute demand is going to just go up exponentially, it's going to need memory. Unless you're stipulating that there's going to be some newfound memory like breakthrough. And I think if your kind of hurdle rate for investing in something is that there's, it's impossible for some black swan new technology to take it out, then there's literally nothing to invest in. Like you know, I mean, I mean are you going to invest in Bitcoin? Well, Quantum could come in. Are you going to invest in U.S. treasuries? Well, the government could collapse and all of a sudden Congress could say we're not going to raise the debt ceiling. Are you going like if you literally want to say there's no black swan impossible downside, then you can't invest in anything. So I will grant you there could be some big memory breakthrough. But absent that you have companies like Micron signing multi year agreements, trading at 6, 7 times earnings, you have capacity growing at 2, 300% a year. Not capacity, demand of what people want growing at 2,300% a year while capacity is only growing at 20,30% a year. And you have companies like Apple saying we've got to raise prices. You've got, I mean if there's not truly a memory shortage, if there's an Ed Zitron, you know, false narrative out there that this is all bs, then why is Apple raising prices? Because then there's no demand, like there's no problem. Why would Apple want to raise prices if, if this is all just going to collapse in the next three months? And I just can't see it. And I think Ken Griffin put out a post the other day about the days of hedge funds monitoring parking lots and saying I'm betting on this quarterly earnings, that's the old Alpha. The new Alpha is looking at this stuff and taking longer term views. And I don't know if Micron's going to be $800 or $1200 a month. From now, but I'll bet it hits 3000 in the next 12 months. I'll just bet it does because it's just too cheap. It's just too cheap not to double or triple from here. And I think people that think, oh, it can't do it, you know, what is bitcoin done? What did gold do between 1980 and 19, excuse me, 1979, 1971. When we were taken off the gold standard in 1980, it went up 25x. And so I think people that think these things have run their course. They have to look at the fundamentals. And Micron at seven times, sk, Hynix at four times, the Korean stock market, which is collapsing in the last 24 hours at 9% down, is now trading at the cheapest PE multiple it has in the last 48 months. Like everything just keeps getting cheaper and people just want to say you got to sell because it's all a big bubble. And I just don't see it.
- [06:33]
Marty
Yeah, I mean the, the Ed Zetron call out is funny because I've seen his commentary and him do the sort of the, the cycle of going through cnbc, Bloomberg and getting clipped out on X and he's saying there's nothing there, nobody wants these things. And then I'm juxtaposing that to my usage of it, which has gone up, I think personally, exponentially. If you're just looking at all the agents and sub agents we're running here, and then you project that forward of more people adopting this, particularly agents, and we're definitely not Even at the 1% adoption threshold of everyday people. And then you think of robotics and self driving cars and all the computing
- [07:14]
Mel Madison
and the memory demand there is exponentially more. It's ridiculous. And Ed, I, I've listened to, I'll be honest with you, I probably listened to 30 to 40 hours of him on podcasts because I do not want to listen to a bunch of bulls tell me how great AI is and just buy Micron. I want to listen to the people that are saying, here's the problem with the story. And he has certain points, but the thing about him is one, one thing I'll say about him, he's one of the cleverest speakers I've ever heard. Like, he is so quick and fast with the remark, but he's so quick and fast with the remark that often you'll listen to him and you're not really processing what he's logically saying, because if you really break down logically what he's saying, it really doesn't make any sense. Like he basically says stuff like, well, anthropic and OpenAI can never be profitable. That's one of his key arguments, that it's all a subsidized good. There'll never be the demand for it, it's never going to be profitable. They're the only buyers of compute. But then at the same time he'll talk about how like open source models are much cheaper, people want to use them. Well, if AI actually has a use case, even if it is open source models, it still requires computer, it still requires the hardware, it still requires memory. Does that mean that OpenAI is going to be a $4 trillion company? I honestly don't know. He might be right. OpenAI might not be the best buy right now. Right. I mean like if I was a private investor and that's what I did for a number of years was basically secondary market investments in large private companies, would I be telling people go into OpenAI and anthropic right now? No, I wouldn't. But does that mean that AI is not going to happen? And I think if you go back and people love to compare it to the dot com boom. So let's compare it to dot com. Did pets dot com, you know, blow up? No. But did the Internet, I mean blow up meaning become a huge success. But did the Internet become a huge success? Yes. And look at the top companies in the quote unquote mag 7. You had Apple that went public in like the 80s, Microsoft, same thing. These things went through that. They had huge market caps, they came out of it. You also had companies like Google that weren't even public until after the dot com boom. Tesla, same thing. And so the Internet and everything that happened there was real and it was a huge thing and it became a big deal. Did we have a huge blow up top and then a collapse and then an even, a slow but steady rise to even greater market. I mean what was the NASDAQ when it collapsed? I think it was like 4,000 to like 30,000 today. Okay, so like you're, you're telling me like oh my God, look at the dot com. You could have bought the NASDAQ at the very top of the dot com boom and left it in your IRA. If you're a 30 year old guy and you're coming back and you're 50 right now, you've still got 10 years before you can access it and it's up like you know what, almost 10x. So I think if you zoom out and you look at what's going on. AI is not going away. Crypto's not going away. Bitcoin's not going away. The fiscal mess we're in is not going away. It's getting worse every day. That debasement trade that was so hot last year that let gold get over $5,000 an ounce, was bitcoin over 120, silver over 100, that's not going away. It's just we're going through all these micro rotations and every time something happens, like Meta says, oh, we're cutting back in compute, and then it skyrockets 20% in the next two trading days, which is what Meta did. It's the money's rotating. And the thing is, the money's gotta go somewhere and the money just keeps building. It's the 401ks, it's now the Trump accounts, it's the fiscal deficits, it's the this whole merry go round that has led the S and P to go from 666 in 2009 at the GFC lows to over 7,600 today. It's going to keep happening. And if you let yourself get shaken out every time there's a 20 or 15% pullback, I think you're just missing the big picture.
- [12:02]
Marty
Yeah. Before we get into Trump accounts, which I know you want to cover those passive flows that many people aren't talking about, and I've said this multiple times over the last six months, this seems like an equities market, not like a bailout, but a mechanism to produce passive flows. But before we get to that, the
- [12:19]
Mel Madison
Ponzi needs more sources.
- [12:21]
Marty
Yeah.
- [12:22]
Mel Madison
And that's a good one.
- [12:23]
Podcast Host
Yeah.
- [12:24]
Mel Madison
They're going to keep doing it. So you want to fight it, go ahead.
- [12:27]
Marty
But bring it back to Zitron. Some of his criticisms, one of which being a lot of these companies, particularly the hyperscalers, have gone from buying back stock to hitting the atm, to issuing stock, raising equity and even going into more debts. And they're highlighting that as like, oh, this is the end. I've been thinking about this a lot too, because you do want to check your priors and be like, okay, where. Where am I maybe having a blind spot here? But, like, when I see that, it's like, you could take that signal that way. Which is like, these companies are desperate. They're diluting equity holders to raise cash to keep piling money into a loser, is what Zitron would say. But the other one is like, well, maybe there was just a period of time post 2008 where the allocation of capital warranted the sort of risk matrix that these companies have warranted. Like hey, we just buy back stock, try to produce eps and now there's finally an opportunity to deploy capital into. Not only deploy capital, but deploy capital at scales that we haven't seen that makes sense to do this. So just trying to get in the mind of the boardrooms of the hyperscalers specifically and that decision around buying stock back or hitting the atm, raising debt and does the opportunity of the AI infrastructure build out, is it so large that it warrants these types of actions?
- [13:48]
Mel Madison
I mean everybody used to complain when they were doing all these buybacks, like they have nothing to invest in and it's a bad sign because they're buying back stock and now it's like, oh no, well they're not buying back stock anymore. And so look, I mean Apple to me just hitting new highs today and it's up over 50% in the last year. I mean like that's something I want to stay away from. Like we just keep going through these micro rotations and it's like, okay, Apple's going to have to raise prices. It's up over 50% in the last 12 months. It's at an all time high. Like maybe I want to go into other things. About a month ago I basically said I think this sell the suppliers narrative is overdone and look to buy Amazon Meta, Google and Microsoft and they're breaking out. I mean, you know the, these stocks have not made a new high since October. They're still not at new highs. So I do a little tweet once in a while. That's essentially just a basic basket of the four hyperscalers. And look at where they're at and they are up well over 10% from the lows just like 10 days ago. They are not yet breaking out. And I think that there's two things that I think Zitron has wrong and I think the market it's concerned about that they shouldn't. One is debt. I did a post a few weeks ago where I basically said how long would it take for each of the hyperscalers to pay off all of their debt off of cash flows? If they stopped AI spend, every single one of them could pay off every dollar of debt they've raised within two quarters with free cash flow. Meaning if all of a sudden AI is a bubble, AI is stupid, it all sucks. And we're going to essentially we're Google, we're Amazon Meta, we've raised Some debt. How long would it take from free cash flow, essentially our paycheck if we were employees, to pay off our credit card bill? The average is like 3.2 months. And they could all pay them off within less than six months. Now what happens after six months when they're now debt free? Now they're going to trade at price to earnings. And then you look at a meta and you say, oh, it's trading at 18 times or 20 times. And now they have no more AI spend to do, they have no more debt to pay, they have no interest expense. And that's if AI fails. So if Zitron's right, and AI is this big nothing burger and the big everybody's going to. He said things like, we're going to look back in a few years and say, what the hell were we doing building all this? Compute. Well, then, number one, you got to take away the threat, right? You got to say, well, there's no threat to Google. Because people might say, well, Google's no. If AI is a nothing burger and it's going away, then Google's going to still have its moat. Amazon's going to have its moat, Microsoft's going to have its enterprise software moat. So if AI is truly a nothing burger, as Zhran says, then there's no threat to the business model of the hyperscalers. If AI is truly a nothing burger and they can literally pay off all their debt and go back to these free cash flow monsters buying back their stock with both hands within six months, then what is the risk buying meta below a market multiple like there is no risk, then if that's the narrative he paints now, he doesn't really talk about another narrative, which I actually think could be the actual narrative that plays out, which is that AI is going to become this ubiquitous huge force greater than the Internet, greater than, you know, the typewriter, the word processor, a lot of the recent big inventions, maybe even greater than radio or tv. Going back to the railroads, I think is what a lot of people think is the best analogy. If it really is the greatest technology since the 1800s. And the railroads. And the railroads became huge and they became huge money makers. But there were boom towns, huge boom towns. I was in Colorado hiking last month, and there are these ghost towns and they spring up and they existed for like 10 years because, you know, the railroad went through. They, they mined out all the silver or lead or copper that was there, and then they disappeared because it was mined out. Or, you know, the population just gave up of being there. But during that 10 year period, I mean people made fortunes. And so do I think like you can just buy Micron and hold it for the next 40 years and retire? No. But do I think Micron's got a longer window of stellar returns than six months to a year? Yes, I think it's got a multi year time horizon for outperformance. And I think a lot of these AI names do, I think a lot of these chip stocks do. I think if you look at the Korean market which has been selling off, it does. But you look at the Korean market, it's 50% of the Korean market is two stocks. It's SK Heineck and Samsung. The average stock in The S&P 500 trades within a 50% band every year. Well, if two stocks make up half of your index and they're actually a little more volatile than your average stock, they're going to trade in a 60, 70, 80% band over the course of the year. That's going to drive 30, 40% fluctuations in the index. That should be expected. But what do investors get in return for increased volatility and risk? They get return. And I think, I think people that are looking at Micron hitting the 50 day and buying it at 9, 10, they might not be happy they did that a week from now. I think they're going to be very happy they did that six months from now, a year from now. And so I'm not here to say look this is what's going to happen but if I had to do a short term bet, I think what these stocks are waiting for is mega cap earnings coming in the next two weeks. And they want to hear Sunday Pichai, they want to hear Jassy, they want to hear these people say we're still going to be spending. And they are because they'd be shooting themselves in the foot if they came out and said you know what, this whole AI thing was a waste. Look, they might say things like look, we're experiencing some supply constraints on power or you know, there's some pushback on data center build out and so our capex might actually not increase that much, might even decrease a little bit. Initial market reaction might be oh my gosh, it's all over. But I think what people are going to realize is this, this is just not going away. Like it's, the spending's not going away. They've been worried about it since 2022 when this whole thing started. It goes through these micro rotations and then all of a sudden it's like oh my gosh, there's open claw. Oh my gosh, there's, you know, anthropic is cash flow or heading into profitability. But oh no they're not because actually, you know, Colossus, they gave, I mean all this stuff keeps going on and it's just meanwhile the valuations keep going up, the profits keep going up and I think waiting and trying to call the top has just been the dumbest thing you could possibly do because it's, it's, it, it is going to top. And, and I've had some thoughts that that's probably not too far away. I don't think it's necessarily five years away. Could be two, three years away. I think it's going to have to do more with fiscal concerns than, than the AI thing. But look, market's not going to be going up 25, 35% a year forever and there's probably going to be a 30, 40% pullback I think by the end of the decade. But I just don't see it happening this year. And I think the earliest it could possibly happen is going to be next year because the spending is just in place. I mean the gears are going and you can't stop the train. To kind of borrow a Lyn Alden phrase, you can't stop the AI train on a dime. It could stop eventually, but you can't stop it. You know, next quarter it would, it would be a multi year phase out of it. And I think, you know, in the meantime earnings are just, you know, they're an unbelievable record paces. We're going to do over $400 in earnings in the S&P 500. The P is cheaper now on the S and P than it was at the beginning of the year. You've got companies like Samsung, which I know isn't in the S and P, but it's going to do over $200 billion in profit this year. And people are saying, why is this a trillion dollar company? Well, I mean if I told you, look, I can make $100,000 a year, the next five years in a row I will give every single dollar to you. And then at the end of it, you're also going to own every single dollar I make after that for the rest of my life. I think a million dollars is a $500,000 is a pretty cheap price to pay and that's what people are paying. I mean, I think some of the cheapest stocks I've ever seen in my life are these Korean memory names. I mean it's just, I just don't understand how like three times earnings growing at 65, 70%. And that's what I mean, they've been growing well over that. But this is what's forecast for fiscal year 27. These PEG ratios are ridiculous. And people are selling it and saying it's a bubble because they believe what that somebody's going to come out and there's going to be a memory fairy that figures out or look Anthropic and OpenAI can blow up. That's not going to hurt Micron or SK Hynix or Samsung in the medium to long term. In the short term, yes, open AI blew up, it's going to hurt it. But AI is not going away. It requires memory. That's like saying, you know, when I was a kid, a big computer was the Commodore 64. If the Commodore 64 blows up and nobody wants to buy another Commodore 64 or another Atari 2600, then the whole video game industry is dead. Like, like, I mean, I mean, no, that's not the case. These were the biggest two companies when I was a kid. They dominated it. Commodore 64, jungle hunt, you know, Atari 2600, PAC man, I mean, these were the games, the cartridges dominated video games. If you said those companies are going to be jack s, you know, within a matter of years, therefore get out of all the video game suppliers,
- [25:11]
Marty
I
- [25:11]
Mel Madison
mean, how did that go for you? And that's what people are saying, as Zitron's saying, OpenAI and Anthropic are shit companies. Those are the word he likes to use. He basically says they're scams. He says they're never going to be able to make a profit and they're going to go away. And because of that, the entire basically financial system is going to blow up and all of this debt of the hyperscalers is going to go away. He even referenced in a recent podcast the possibility of Nvidia going bankruptcy. I mean like literally, like he's talking about Nvidia possibly going. He said it was unlikely, but he said it's possible Nvidia is going to go bankrupt. I mean, Marty, this amount of fear mongering and then it's played into. You listen to the kids booing at college like there's this AI. A lot of people have talked about Sam Altman and Dario Modi being like the, you know, it's like Mussolini and Hitler. Like they're very bad spokesmen. Like nobody likes these guys. They, they come across as arrogant, they come across as condescending. They, they just, they're not relatable. And the stuff that they say, a lot of the times it just puts people off the wrong way. And I think like there, there's this whole thing where this is not going to necessarily end in OpenAI being a 10 trillion dollar company. I don't know if it does. But even if OpenAI eventually becomes a Lucent Technologies, that doesn't mean that there's not going to be a Microsoft and an Amazon emerging from the Internet Flash now AI ecosystem. And I just, I just think trying to pick the exact time that this is going to happen. Like okay, next week, you know, they're going to say capex is over and it's going to crash. I think you just want to, you want to stay invested, stay for the long term. But I think you also want to really stay diversified and not have everything in chips and AI. You want to have emerging markets you like, not just Korea, but things like Brazil. You want to have bitcoin, you want to have gold, you want to have material sector, you want it. You don't want to put all your money in chips. It's number one, it's too volatile, you'll get blown out. And number two, the rotation is going to continue. And I think we're just, you know, probably on the verge of getting started back into the whole gold bitcoin debasement trade.
- [27:52]
Podcast Host
What's up freaks? This episode is brought to you by Block's Bitcoin ecosystem. You probably know Cash app, you probably know square. You definitely know bitkey. If you've been listening to the show for the last couple of years, what matters most is that these are not disconnected random products. They are part of a broader push to make bitcoin easier to buy, easier to hold and easier to use in the real world. Cash app helps people stack bitcoin. Bitkey helps people custody without turning self custody into a weekend engineering product. Square helps merchants run their businesses and increasingly plug into the bitcoin native payments Rails. Listen, this is the kind of ecosystem bitcoin needs. We've been talking about this on the
- [28:29]
Marty
show for a while.
- [28:30]
Podcast Host
We know that we need the different parts to line up to make bitcoin everyday money.
- [28:34]
Marty
Block is doing just that.
- [28:36]
Podcast Host
Check the episode description for the current Cash app. Bitkey and Square links. Freaks, look at me. I'm glowing. I've got like an angel's halo going around me. You know why that is is? I feel good.
- [28:46]
Marty
I feel taken care of. I feel blessed, healthy, happy.
- [28:49]
Podcast Host
That is because I'm A crowd health member. My family and I have been crowd health members for five years now. Literally this month, five years ago, we joined crowd health. We've had two babies, we've had multiple health events and we're never going back to health insurance. Crowd health is crowdfunded healthcare. So you, you sign up for crowd health, you pay a monthly fee, you help out with other people's bills and it's significantly cheaper than health insurance. We were on COBRA as a family of three when I, when I left my last job before I went full time with cftc, went on the crowd health. Now as a family of five, we pay, I believe $700 a month. It's significantly cheaper. They're going to negotiate prices lower for you. They've consistently negotiated health care prices as much as 50, 60, 80% in many cases. They help out with babies. You have a pregnancy, you pay the first $3,000 and the crowd covers the rest. If you have a regular health event, you pay $500 and the crowd pays the rest. Go to joincrowdhealth.com, sign up today. Use the code TFTC. Opt out of health insurance. I'm uninsured baby, and I love it. Use the code T DC@joincrowdhealth.com you'll get 99amonth for the first three months that you're on the crowd health platform in the community. Bitcoiners, you found sovereign money. Now find sovereign health and sovereign healthcare.
- [30:03]
Marty
That's a good segue into the next topic, which is the Fed in macro we were discussing before we hit record. A lot of people are beginning to price in rate hikes later this month. I think it's at 5050 right now. If you look at, if you look at the probability of there being a rate hike or them holding it steady. What's your take on this wash again? Coming in between now in our last interview and how are you viewing all this marsh at the helm?
- [30:33]
Mel Madison
I do not think there's going to be any rate hikes. I think there's going to be rate cuts this year. Somebody who you know, I respect, I've referenced him many times, is Jordy Visser. He's talked about a potential for wash to hike actually in July and do a surprise hike. This would essentially like assert FEN independence but then talk it down and say that's it. So like a 25 basis point hike possibly, but nobody is even talking about like a major hiking cycle. And if you listen to Warsh, I think he comes off a little conceded sometimes Too. I think he probably needs a better haircut, but he just does not strike me as someone who's oblivious to the broader macro concerns. As an example, in his first press conference he was asked kind of a leading question about our financial conditions loose. And it was kind of a left leaning journalists that, you know, wanted him to somehow argue they're not. And he basically came back right away. He said, look, in housing, no, financial conditions are not loose. If you're a hyperscaler looking to borrow, debt and spreads are at all time tights, then yeah, financial conditions are, excuse me, financial conditions are not very tight. You know, it's, it's pretty easy to borrow right now. And so we have this tale of two economies. We have a housing market which has been the primary driver of the economy about half of the time, right. If you look at, okay, what happened when the dot com boom bust, housing took over and then we had like a five, six year housing bubble. If you look at net worth of Americans, it's still mostly in real estate. So the biggest market in this country for your average American is real estate. It's the house. And that has just done nothing in recent years really. There have been certain markets that are extremely supply constrained with kind of blue political leanings where they, like in New York, where like you know, they're just not building anything and you know, rents are, I think rents are over $5,000 a month right now for an average one bedroom in Manhattan, you know, yeah, prices have gone up in places like that. But if you live like where I do in North Carolina, I mean, you know, the house has not moved up or down more or less in the last four years. You know, you got to go back to the last World cup, you know, to see, you know, house prices cheaper or more expensive than they are right now. I mean like housing just has not moved. And at the same time during that period, earnings, nominal earnings, and I'm using nominal because housing prices have moved are up like over 20%. So for your average American, if you want to buy a house In Durham, it's 20% cheaper now than it was four years ago. People say, well what are you talking about? 20% cheaper because houses have not moved. Nominal earnings are up that much compounded over the last four years. And I can, I can go down my street and look at Zillow and look at like what are house sell for in like September 2022. And you put a house on the market right now, it's going to sell for the same thing. And then if you look at what is the average, you know, hourly earnings increase, nominal terms, not real. It's up over 20% compounded over the last four years. I mean, that's a 20% reduction in housing. And that's basically the biggest segment of wealth in the entire US Economy and the most directly interest rate sensitive segment of the economy. So if you're Warsh and you're saying, okay, if I raise rates, what am I going to do? I'm going to hurt housing, that's going to hurt construction spending, that's going to hurt Joe Schmo American, where most of their wealth is in housing. Is it going to stop OpenAI from spending? Is it going to stop Meta from borrowing? Because their interest rate on their debt just went up 25 basis points? No, it's not. And so I think Warsh recognizes that the Fed's interest rate tool is a very blunt tool and that by raising rates he's not going to stop electricity inflation because of AI that's on a course that's absolutely separate from whatever the two year yield is at. And so all he's going to do is hurt the average person and also stymie bank lending, which I think he wants to stimulate. And that goes into Besant and Besant's speech about tokenization, about deregulation. And so there's this big strategic narrative that I think the Trump administration has, right? And then at the same time we're fighting this big tactical narrative that I think the Trump administration has wrong. So they keep making these tactical mistakes, these fumbles, but their long term strategic vision of embracing digital assets, embracing deregulation, letting AI, letting America compete, bringing back manufacturing, all these broad strategic goals, one big beautiful bill, depreciation, tax cuts, all these are huge strategic tailwinds. But then at the same time, we keep getting these huge tactical headwinds, whether it's tariffs, Iran, war, whatever. And this is the wall of worry. The market keeps fighting and we keep getting the ups and downs, we keep getting the rotations. And then at the end of the day you look back and you say, oh my gosh, Apple's up 50% in the last 12 months.
- [36:55]
Marty
Yeah, well, let's talk about the big strategy from dissent and Trump administration, what they're getting right long term and then follow that up with what they're getting wrong and how they can maybe right course there.
- [37:08]
Mel Madison
Yeah, I think, you know, like I said, what they're getting right is, you know, deregulation. I think one thing that has not been understood enough is the relationship of the balance sheet to interest rates and what War should say. So I think this is where the market has been getting it wrong. The market looked at Warsh, they see him as a hawk. They think he's going to like decrease the balance sheet. That's going to decrease money supply. Look, inflation and inflationary aspects are primarily driven by money supply. Money supply does not necessarily need to be increased by the Fed balance sheet. It can be increased by bank lending. It can be increased by the velocity of money. And those are the things that Warsh really wants to increase. He wants to start, and this is already starting, move back more lending from banks and less from private credit. Why is that important? If I'm a millionaire and I've got $100,000 I want to put into bond issue and I do it through private credit, I take that 100,000. It essentially gets withdrawn from the economy and it goes lend us, lends it to the company. Net net it's zero. I had 100,000 spending power. I now lose that $100,000 spending power. I loaned it to a company, they got $100,000 of spending power. If a bank says I want to loan you $100,000, they credit your account 100,000 and then they debit their liabilities 100,000. There's no decrease. It's money printing. There have been so many people Fed, you know, I'm a big central bank guy. The biggest printers of money are not central banks, it's commercial banks. Commercial banks. The reason they're regulated the way they are, the reason there's the occ, the reason there's the fdic, the reason there's, is the Fed is they can literally make credits on their balance sheet, excuse me, debits on their balance sheet for their, for their own liabilities and credit you with an asset, that's money printing. That's money creation. We had so much money being created through private credit that's essentially putting a ceiling on M2. We don't need the Fed's balance sheet to expand. If commercial banks start lending more. This is what Warsh, the deregulation, this is all part of the investment plan. We don't need to raise interest rates every time growth comes up. We don't need to have a huge Fed balance sheet. We can absorb treasury supply through stable coins or tokenization. There is this big broad strategic plan that I believe is out there that I think is going to be necessary because if you do not address and we're already at over 800 billion in net interest expense, this Fiscal year and we still got the rest of July, August and September. Fiscal year ends at the end of Q3. People are worried about $80 billion in Google equity raise. I mean look, just net interest expense is over 10 times that already this year. And it's just growing. And this is the thing that is a nasty little secret. This is what my, my big concern is longer term is that almost all the expense of health care for an individual comes in the last 24 to 36 months of life. And we are just now getting into what I would call an accelerated death range for baby boomers. Where if you look at, you know, when was World War II over? 1945. Okay, so the first boomers, let's say born in 46. We're now exactly 80 years, right? So the oldest baby boomers are now 80. I don't know about you, but most of the people I know, they do pretty good in their 70s. I mean there's always exceptions. Look at Lindsey Graham. But really where the health problems start cropping up for most of the older adults that I know is in their 80s. And boomers, this is the first year the oldest boomers are just hitting 80. And if you look at fiscal projections for Medicare and health spending, it's going to blow up. And so we're getting interest expense blowing up. At the same time we're going to have healthcare spending blow up because boomers are hitting what I would call peak medical care years. And that's not going to end anytime soon and it's just going to get worse. And so if you look at the we're going to hit $40 trillion in U.S. debt in the coming months. We're going to hit over a trillion dollars in interest expense year to date in a couple months. How you can look at the US Dollar and not say I want to own gold, I want to own bitcoin, I want to own silver. In the same way that people thought was so smart 12 months ago. And the amazements guys from Morgan Stanley coming on Bloomberg debasement trade and now it's like, oh look, AI stole a little bit of thunder from this. I mean look, there's no question about it. Like stuff's going up four or five times. But people are starting to see the easy money days are over. You know, Micron, I think like I said, it could be $3,000 a share in the next 12 to 24 months. But that's not what it did in the last 12 to 24 months. And I think once people start to recognize this and Once people see the plan, the occ, the Office of the Comptroller, the currency which is the largest bank regulator, was on CNBC today talking about how he just approved Circle to be a bank. You know, like this, this stuff is starting to happen where crypto, Bitcoin, they're, they were fighting like up a river for four years under Biden. Like he basically said, like Carl Quintanilla asked, like, aren't you worried about giving Circle a bank license? He's like, look, all I'm doing is following the statutes and the laws as they're written. And I can speak from firsthand experience that until recently if you mentioned crypto to a regulator, you were like, you know, it was you, you just didn't do it. I started three different broker dealers, SEC 5 securities, equity securities, vested securities, they're all broker check people want to start them. As the CEO of I went through the whole FINRA application process with all three of them. Two is new broker dealers, one is a continuing application which is where you buy a broker dealer and then you apply for another broker dealer license every single time. And we had the best Manhattan attorneys that advised us. We were BC funded and we had these fancy guys from a firm called Lowenstein Sandler. Every single time they would tell us, look, just don't mention crypto. Once you mention that you're going to be Persona non grata. You're going to go to the back of the list. If you have to mention it, but otherwise allude to, you might go into other aspects of business like it it. And there was no legislative, statute, law on the books that said if you're involved with cryptocurrencies you can't have a broker dealer or you can't have a bank. There's no law prohibiting it. It was just a stance that the regulators took because they were essentially in the back pockets of the big banks and it was a threat to the big banks and it is a threat to the big banks. This is the whole reason why the Clarity act hasn't been passed yet. Because the banks do not want stable coin issuer like Circle basically paying out interest and not being regulated like a bank. Well, guess what? Now Circle's a bank. So we're going to get through these hurdles and we're going to get over this. We had Securitize Secz is the ticker go public via SPAC a week or so ago. You know, it traded down quite a bit and I actually bought some late last week and some today. I'm not making an investment recommendation. But, you know, it went public with SPAC, traded up to like 14 and got down to 6.66 cents last week. And, you know, this is a, a tokenization company, you know, blockchain. Again, to reference Jordy Visser. He likes to talk about agents. The, the agentic economy. It's, you know, they're not going to be using dollars. Once people start to realize this, they're going to say, oh my gosh, I need to be there. Just like a year ago, people were like, oh my gosh, debasement trade. I need to be there in gold and silver. Then it ramps up, you know, 150% sells off. Everybody hates it for six months and then, and then it starts again. And so I think the same thing is happening right now with some of these chip stocks and what was hated, some of the hyperscalers. Like I said, I mean, they're having amazing returns. I mean, I don't know. I mean, just look at something really quick like a meta. I mean, this thing was literally 540 bucks a share, like five, six days ago, and today it hits 675. But yet if you hear people talk about, oh, meta hyperscalers. What a dog. Well, look, these things are in ranges. They're trading around. The money is moving. And I think at the end of the day, if, if you're going to argue and maybe this could be our last quick topic would be like the Trump accounts, like, what's going to keep this party going? It's just an endless stream of passive bid. There's a Michael Green argument. It's, you know, PES can blow up. They don't need to stay at 25. They could go to 30, 35. Like, because the passive bid is not going away and it's only getting augmented by the tune of hundreds of billions of dollars a year in perpetuity, just from one law going into effect on July 4, which is the Trump accounts suffreaks.
- [48:39]
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- [50:55]
Marty
What should we follow there in terms of adoption to then try to port to the flows that you just described because everybody has access to a Trump account. You have to physically go out and get them for your kids. How's this going to play out in your mind?
- [51:17]
Mel Madison
I think it's being way underestimated by the markets because I don't think people fully understand the tax advantage of these accounts. And it's not just a thousand dollars that the government's going to give. It's the ability for anybody to give to a kid that, and it's $5,000 a year. And it's available to every single person under 18 years of age. So every American under 18 can go create, or their parents can go create a Trump account. Not if you're 16, you're not going to get $1,000. So it's like you have to be born, I think since Trump took office or something. 20, 25, 26. There, there's a, there's a, there's a lower age range where you get the thousand dollars. And then there's other people making big gifts like Michael Dell, Brett Gerstner, different people that are, you know, like Gerstner's just doing the state of Indiana. But the big thing is the tax advantage savings of it, which is that, okay, I talked about boomers turning 80. We all know boomers have 70 plus trillion dollars in wealth. They can put $5,000 a year for each of their grandkids into this account and it's going to grow for their grandkids tax free. When they're 18, if the kid wants, they can roll this over into a Roth IRA and then when they're 59, they can take it out tax free. There have been some studies showing that if a kid that's born now and for the next 18 years, $5,000 is contributed, which granted, that's a lot of decent amount of money. It's less than $100,000 though, that should the markets perform as they have, by the time that kid is 59 and a half and could withdraw it, it should be between 13 and 15 million dollars. Because you're starting that early. This is the power of compounding. It's the same thing that AI guys talk about how humans think linearly. We don't speak exponentially or Einstein talking about compounding the most powerful force in the universe. And you're like, is that really right? You've put $90,000 into some kid's account and he's going to have 13 million? Well, yeah, because of compounding, because it's that many years. It's 60 years. We're starting from year zero when the kid's born to 59 and a half. So it's called 60 years. Nominally S&P is up 10, 11% a year. You're putting that money in. And so whether that's going to happen or not, that can be up for debate. What I don't think is going to be up for debate is that there's going to be a lot of well off grandparents putting money into their grandkids accounts. Now what has to happen with that? It goes in the s and P500 and it can't be sold, right? I mean the kid can't. Oh, I put it into my six year old grandchild. I just put 5,000 in. You know, next month I'm going to sell it. No, this is a passive bid. It's an unstoppable passive bid because every year there's new kids born. So I think it's three and a half million kids born. Some of these numbers were gone through on a recent all in podcast podcast with Brad Gerstner, which I think really spells all this out well. And they don't tie it necessarily to S and P returns. They just talk about the great tax savings. But I think if you combine what they're talking about, the tax savings, combine that with Michael Green's passive bid thesis, combine that with the fiscal deficits and that we literally can't clamp down on inflation. We can't raising interest rates when the government is primarily funding itself through U.S. treasury bills and start hiking up those rates when we're running over a trillion dollars a year. Like Lou Groman, what are you going to do? Sacrifice the currency or bonds? Right. I mean, are we either going to let the bond market blow up or are we going to sacrifice the currency, in other words, inflation. We're going to have that. Now, there's going to be counterproductive or counter forces with productivity. But at the end of the day, this whole market fear, oh my gosh, we've got the second coming of Paul Volkner in the Fed chair seat and he's just going to start hiking rates because inflation's at 3.2%, which I wouldn't be surprised if tomorrow. And it's always risky making a call less than 24 hours before a number comes out. I wouldn't be surprised if we're well below expectations tomorrow on CPI and even more low next month. And I think we could have some deflationary prints, like literally negative numbers, especially if the Trump administration would get out of its way a little bit with this Iran stuff, because those are the tactical headwinds I talked about. But when you had oil go from $120 a barrel down to six handle in a matter of weeks, I mean that's going to be good for reducing inflation. So I think, you know, all these signs, like there's so much noise out there, there's a lot of volatility, but like if you just can block that out and say, look, I think I want to have a 4% allocation to memory stocks, 12% allocation to gold, 8% allocation to Bitcoin, whatever, those allocations are right for you and hold on to them, you're going to be very happy with where you're at in six months, 12 months from now. And I just mentioned that because there are a lot of doomer voices out there. There are a lot of people saying this AI thing is going to blow up, private credit is going to blow up. You know, Iran war is going to send oil to 200. There are a lot of people that I think could be scaring people into saying, oh my gosh, I need to take my money out of all risk assets and put it into a cd. I think that's going to be the wrong decision. I could always be wrong. But I mean I'm about as bullish as I've ever been. I think, I think 15,000 by the end of the decade on S and P, for example, is probably conservative.
- [58:05]
Marty
You've always been very bullish on the show and it seems like, I mean the AI stuff like when I hear Ed Citron I have to wonder like is there some sort of nefarious incentive driving it because. Or is he not using it? Or is he not using it the right way? Because you can.
- [58:24]
Mel Madison
He just sells his research. He makes money on that.
- [58:27]
Marty
Yeah, but as a research kit, like, because I'm using the stuff. We've basically automated a ton of the back end stuff at tftc and like I said, my token usage is going up exponentially. It feels, particularly with the new frontier models launching, we're hopping on them right away and it's undeniable. Objectively, they're just looking at my micro situation, looking at my business. It is helping us be crazy productive. It is a multiple and productivity. The costs are manageable for us as a small team. Maybe that's different for enterprises and it does seem like enterprises are trying to figure out how to manage token spend and what the right mix of frontier models and open source models is. But I think to flatly say that this is a bubble built on idiotic technology that Hallucinates nothing.
- [59:19]
Mel Madison
Yeah, he claims it's nothing. He doesn't even make the claim that OpenAI and anthropic are, you know, insecure business models. Like, he literally makes the claim that we're going to look back on this period and say this was the biggest waste ever and we're going to be like massively oversupplied with compute. And I would, I will grant him that. There's no guarantee, like I said, that OpenAI becomes a $10 trillion company one day. In fact, I kind of doubt it ever does. But that does not mean that AI, that data center builds outs are worthless. That meta. I made this argument months ago where I was basically like, look, everybody's talking about shortages of compute. The hyperscalers own compute. Microsoft owns Compute with Azure, Amazon with aws, Meta with what they built out for themselves, which are now selling Google with Google Cloud and what they built out for Gemini, they own compute. If there's a need for compute, it doesn't matter if it comes through OpenAI, Anthropic, Groq, Gom, you know, Kimi, Mini, Max. Like, it doesn't matter when the BABA model, like, if it needs to be computed, it needs the hardware. And the hardware is going to be valuable because that demand is going up crazy. And like you talked about and mentioned earlier, we're not even getting into robotics. I mean, we're not even getting into all this stuff. And like, is a lot of that stuff going to be on the edge? Yes. But guess who's going to make the memory for the robots, right? So it's like, you know, mine the miners, you know, this is, this is the railroads, man. I mean, it was like the same thing. Picks and shovels, mine the miners. You know, like I said, honestly, I would not invest in Anthropic or OpenAI right now. I just wouldn't. I mean, not anything significant. And I think we've seen SpaceX not have that great of a reaction in the markets. So I think there's a valid criticism that when people are willing to draw out, like, where's SpaceX going to be in 15 years? Who the heck knows where SpaceX is going to be in 15 years? And so that deserves a pretty heavy discount, even if you grant that it's going to access this $24 trillion TAM, and it's like, granted, all but you got to discount the hell out of that. But was it a big leap once the automobile was invented to say automate autos are going to be a big thing? Didn't know If Ford was going to be great, Studebaker, a lot of companies went bankrupt. A lot of railroads went bankrupt, a lot of dot com went bankrupt. But at the end of the day, this was a transformational technology. I just don't see how. And Zitron argues this a lot of the times. He basically says AI is not a transformational technology. It's not good. It doesn't do anything. It hallucinates. It's like, look, it's getting better every month. It does a lot of stuff. I mean, I'll tell you what, you could make the same argument about a word processor. You could be like, oh, what's a computer? It's a keyboard. I already have a typewriter. It's not transformational. I mean, sometimes the differences don't even have to be that huge. Just the fact that you can now talk to computers is huge. Right?
- [62:57]
Sponsor Representative
I mean.
- [62:58]
Mel Madison
I mean, before the big LLMs, the best talking, you know, back and forth was like, Alexa and Siri and they all sucked. And now, like, I'm like, you know, you start talking to these models and they're picking up on slang. You're picking up on, like, that is just a huge, huge leap. I mean, it's so easy to, you know, imagine like glasses and, you know, automatically, you know, translating. And all the stuff that these things have already proven they can do are huge. They just haven't been fully implemented in society yet because people don't change as fast as the technology does. But they will get implemented just like. Like, I'm old enough that when I was a kid, we had a radio, we had a rotary phone, and we had a dial, black and white TV with an antenna. Okay? That was the, like, epitome of electronics in, like, a 1981 household. There were people that first got VHS, then they got Betas. My dad didn't like that stuff. There were people that got cable. My dad didn't like that stuff. There were kids that got video games. I mentioned the Commodore 64, the Atari 2600. My dad didn't like that stuff. He bought a new video game console called the Atari 400, which, even though it was less than the Atari 2600, was actually more expensive. But it was supposed to be a better computer. But nobody liked it. Everybody liked the 2600. So all this stuff happened. All this stuff happened. And these companies came and went, but they have literally just transformed the world over what is a relatively short period of time. I mean, it's not like the iPhone's been around for even a decade.
- [64:46]
Podcast Host
Right.
- [64:47]
Mel Madison
I mean, it came out in 2007. I mean, excuse me for, for 20 years, you know, it hasn't been around for 20 years. I mean, that's, that is not a long time. That, that's. I mean, I, I got pairs of socks older, you know, been around longer than iPhones. Like this stuff changes the world. And AI is going to change the world. That's not going to end. Does that mean, you know, SpaceX can't trade down to $30 a share in the next 24 months? Sure it can. I actually don't think it will, but yeah, I mean, that thing's got barely any revenue. It's not profitable. Yeah, I'm just saying, look, would I want to put a bunch of money into SpaceX?
- [65:33]
Marty
No.
- [65:34]
Mel Madison
I own some shares. I got a little allocation on the IPO and I bought some the very first day, small amount. And I just put it away because I do believe in the potential of it. But like, I'm not going to like be a SpaceX maxi. Like, let me put it all into that, you know, And I think like a diversified portfolio. Crypto, bitcoin, gold, silver, equities, emerging market equities, like everything except for bonds. I just don't like bonds because I just don't see a way for the fixed income return to keep up with the inflation that's going to be necessary to handle the fiscal issues that every major developed country from Japan to UK to France to the United States to even China just swamped in it. And the basement trade's not hot right now. That doesn't mean it won't be three to six months.
- [66:43]
Marty
It's not hot. It's the best time to allocate.
- [66:45]
Mel Madison
Typically it is, it's it every single time. People hate the hyperscalers. It's ridiculous how many times when everybody thinks it's the smartest thing to do, that's when everybody's invested in it and it's got nowhere to go but down. Like about four weeks ago, everybody's like, you gotta bet on the, the, the builders, you know, don't bet on the spenders. Get out of the hyperscalers. Everybody was saying that. Hyperscalers knocking the socks off of the, you know, quote unquote, you know, the picks and shovel plays in the last three or four weeks because it just gets overdone and the narrative gets old. And now you've got Micron down a few hundred bucks from the high and you've got meta up 80 bucks in the last couple trading days and people are saying, what the hell happened? Like, I thought a month ago you were supposed to buy Micron and sell Meta. No, actually a month ago you were supposed to sell Micron and buy Meta. And it's like longer term, I think you just be diversified because it's hard to pick the perfect dates. I mean, when am I going to pick that perfect day that Meta stopped or Micron stopped? And I think you just want to be involved in these long term themes. And this is why even when like bitcoin and gold were ripping last year and I did once in a while go on a podcast and someone would say, mel, you believe so much in gold and bitcoin in the debasement trade, why do you own equity? I'm like, this doesn't mean that the basement trade is always going to be doing what I think it's going to do. Do I think gold and bitcoin will outperform the S&P 500 over the next 10 years? Yes, I do and I still do. But it's not happening this year. And you know what? It's good to have that diversity. There's an old saying in investing, the only free lunch in investing is diversity because it increases your Sharpe ratio, it reduces the volatility, increases your expected returns. And that's why I've never been a fan of just put every dollar you own into bitcoin or put it all into ether, put it all into gold or put it all into the Nasdaq or put it all into monster Nvidia or strategy. I do believe in diversification and you want to take short term bets, Take short term bets. But I do, but I do it with a small percentage of the portfolio. Most of it is a long term diversified portfolio.
- [69:23]
Marty
I think that's sage advice. Any predictions between now and the next time we meet after Q3?
- [69:31]
Mel Madison
What, what's A? Let me see if I can come up with a shocker for you. Marty, you know you're my favorite person to talk to. I don't know if I have anything that's actually too out of consensus or crazy. I, I do think that with gold right around 4,000, bitcoin not too far away from 60 that the next time we meet I would wager that gold and bitcoin are going to be outperformers relative to equities and even some high flying equities. I would much rather invest in bitcoin or gold right now than I would Micron or SpaceX. Doesn't mean I don't think they're they're not, they're, they're not good. I just think that especially by the end of the year we could be looking at some really, really nice returns. I, I think this was before we came on, but we're like three months away from the four year anniversary of the FTX low in bitcoin and it was October 2022, 16,000 four year cycle. I wasn't a believer in four year cycles, but you know what, we seem to be following one pretty damn well. And if we're gonna bond four years, four years after the last bottom and that's October, we're in the middle of July. I mean like if, if people have said okay, bitcoin winner, like well, winners getting ready to end. Because you know, if we're bottoming in the next couple of months, you know, I think you need to be start adding now. And you know, I think to me, Bitcoin 57,000, whatever it hit last week, I mean that's a gift. Gold at 4,000, silver 60. Now's the time to be buying those things. Not, you know, I don't know what's the hottest thing out there on the books these days. Not SpaceX in my opinion.
- [71:52]
Marty
That's. Yeah, that is funny. The four year cycle does seem to be repeating and it's always good to zoom out with you, Mel. I think this was like the most dense cycle high signal sort of. We've ran through all this in an hour and eight minutes here now. So thank you for coming on. Let's catch up in the fall when Q3 is, is over. And I'm always looking forward to our end of year retrospective and predictions for the following year. So it's gonna be a fun one.
- [72:26]
Mel Madison
I'm too, I, and I've got a few that I'm, I'm actually thinking could still come to fruition that nobody thought one of them was max 7 outperforms S&P 500. I had Bitcoin outperforming gold. You know, I, I had some things that didn't seem to make sense back in January that I, that I predicted at the end of the year. And they still don't make sense, to be honest with you. But I think there's still plenty of time left in the year for some of those things to come full circle. And I think a lot of people that kind of gave up on the Mag 7 early in the year, gave up on bitcoin and thought gold was the bee's knees as it hit 5600 and there's no way bitcoin is going to outperform it. I still think bitcoin is going to outperform gold for 2026 and I still think max7 is going to outperform S
- [73:18]
Marty
and P. Clip it and send it to Peter Schiff. Freaks. Mel, we'll we'll catch up in the fall, brother. Enjoy the rest of your summer.
- [73:29]
Mel Madison
All right. Thanks Marty.
- [73:30]
Marty
Peace and love, Freaks.
- [73:32]
Podcast Host
Thank you for listening to this episode of tftc. If you've made it this far, I imagine you got some value out of the episode. If so, please share it far and wide with your friends and family. We're looking to get the word out there also, wherever you're listening, whether that's YouTube, Apple, Spotify, make sure you like and subscribe to the show. And if you can, leave a rating on the podcasting platforms, that goes a long way. Last but not least, if you want to get these episodes a day early and ad free, make sure you download the Fountain podcasting app. You can go to Fountain FM to find that $5 a month get you every episode a day early ad free helps. The show gives you incredible value, so please consider subscribing via Fountain as well. Thank you for your time and until next time.