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- [00:00]
A
I'm running late. I'm running late. I'm sorry. I'm running late. John, Happy belated 4th of July to all of our listeners out there and to you, Mr. Arnold. I hope you had a great weekend.
- [00:10]
B
I did great to be an American. Happy 4th. Let's do 250 more at least. Very, very bullish on the US recently, despite many, many, many issues that we talked about on the show that we need to work through. But I think good position to be in. I'm disappointed you didn't open up with Proud to be an American or a Grand Old Flag. I was trying to figure out what you were going to start the show with.
- [00:32]
A
Be an American, where at least I know I'm true. I don't know the rest of the words, but no, we kid here. I will say I'm just opening up. Maybe not singing, but I sent out a Tweet on the 4th of July acknowledging like, hey, it's undeniable. We're the best nation on the planet. And I think what really makes us the best nation is the ingrained culture of high agency, risk tolerance and industrious innovation. Innovative industriousness is what I said. That is inherent in our culture. And as long as we have that alive and well, which I think mistakenly it is today, there's no, no doubting that, that those cultural values are still alive and well and exist very strongly today. As long as those things persist, I think we will always have the ability to, to right the ship. We may have some, some qualms about tax policy and the, the over the overstepping of boundaries at the federal level, but I think those are, those are details that can be fleshed out in the long run. Really what it comes down to is the people, right, doing, doing things and getting out there and making sure that on the free market side of things, on the market side of things, we're innovating and pushing the world forward, which I think any objective observer would have to admit. The US leads the way in those regards.
- [01:58]
B
High agency culture is underrated for sure.
- [02:01]
A
Really is, you know, all else is underrated and was for a while. But many people are beginning to realize, probably shouldn't have slept on. This is grid stability, generation capacity, and a focus on an abundant energy future. I think it's come back into focus. We probably went two decades here in the United States or in the west broadly without, without really focusing on this. But now with the AI boom, this is an AI show now the energy grids are coming into focus and I Think more people are beginning to recognize that we need more cheap, abundant energy. Wanted to start off the show today with FERC ordering grid operators to promptly revise or justify interconnection rules for data centers and large loads.
- [02:44]
B
Yeah, you know, this is, we kid, this is not an AI show, this is a bitcoin show. I'll prepare everyone that we've got a lot of AI headlines this week to talk through but I think as I said in the newsletter this week, it all really is connected and I think if you hold Bitcoin, if you care about Bitcoin, you're going to want to pay attention to things like this. What's going on in the AI complex broadly, both in terms of what companies are doing and also what the US is doing, what the government's doing. And I think this is a really good example of that. And Marty, you're right that it's, it's Basically US, the US here kind of marking to market a 50 year shortfall in energy stability, grid capacity, our power production capacity, our ability to deploy that. We've all seen the various charts highlighting how that's flatlined on different metrics over the last basically 50 years relative to would be rivals like China. So important theme that you've been calling out for a very long time and it's now being addressed very clearly by the federal government. And I think, you know, most notably just this is there's that piece of it, but there's also very clearly a desire to push very aggressively to accelerate some of these deployments and from, from the top down, make sure that whether you like data centers or not, I think there are many arguments you could, may maybe make about living next to one. But regardless, there is a clear and explicit goal from, from the top down to push them forward, accelerate their development. And I meant to, we'll see if you can pull this up. I meant to open the deck with the lead image from the newsletter this week, but I think a picture's worth a thousand words as it relates to this FERC order and what we're going to do, what we're going to talk about in the rest of the show. But basically I think the key theme for this week is if it wasn't obvious to you before, for the last year, for however long we've been doing the show, we are definitively moving in the direction of AI being a key strategic priority for the country. Rightly or wrongly, that's how it's being viewed by the administration and you can short that at your peril. But I think we are officially making AI too big to fail. I don't know how you can be bearish on AI given that you can just go to your favorite browser, your favorite tool, type in something ridiculous like this and get it back in one second. This is clearly generating a lot of value for society. But in any case, I think this is kind of what we're looking at, right? And this is. If you take away one thing from the show today, I think this is it with Sam Altman, Trump and Marc Andreessen all sitting together and telling us where we're headed.
- [05:27]
A
You should have the gun pointing. I mean the maga meme of Trump at the gunpointing, getting loser. We're making America great again.
- [05:35]
B
This is a PG rated show.
- [05:37]
A
Yes, this is PG rated. Get in Loser. We're making AI too big to fail. And, and I couldn't. When I tweeted it, I saw that you saw the tweet because you had retweeted it, but I couldn't help but think of you when this headline dropped. I believe Axios was reporting on it, but OpenAI apparently proposed a 5% stake in their business to the Trump administration to ease Washington pressure. And I thought this was a very creative way to create a regulatory note. Instead of paying lobbyists to go lobby on your behalf, just go to the Trump administration, which has been buying material stakes and in American companies over the last year, and say, hey, why don't you just buy 5% of us?
- [06:17]
B
Yeah, I mean, look, who knows what the real story is here? Generally these things don't get leaked unless there's strategic reason to do so. Most leaks are not actually accidental. So my assumption is that there's some fire where there's the smoke here, particularly given as we called out in, I think last year, like last fall, OpenAI CFO, excuse me, Sarah Fryer was at a conference and kind of made a passing reference to maybe it would be good to have a federal backstop for all the build out that OpenAI is engaging in and the hyperscalers are engaging in. So that was kind of the trial balloon that I heard that it's one of those haha, just kidding unless kind of comments and you float that into the ether. There have been a few more data points like that over the last year or so and I think this is just the culmination of kind of what you would expect, particularly given, as you said, the federal government. The Trump administration has shown no shyness about taking material stakes in NP Materials, intel, various other companies clearly indicating that it wants to engage in the type of industrial policy that, you know, we haven't had in this country for at least, at least 80 years. So this is one of those things that just feels very validating for everything that we've been talking about. And I think again should be a wake up call on how strategically the administration views these companies and this infrastructure. And I think that's going to have again, a lot of implications for portfolio allocation and where we'll see policy going and where we'll see kind of favored and disfavored industries going over the next year or two.
- [07:45]
A
Yeah, it'll be interesting to see, I mean, what us plebes are able to get access to in terms of models as we know. I think we talked about last week, Fable 5 re released but completely nerfed, reverting to Opus 4.8 for coding task and other tasks. So it does worry me a bit again going back to the, the encroachment of the federal government into our everyday lives. Are they just going to make it so we don't get access to the best models and those are contained to, to the state which will then use them for surveillance mostly. And I mean keeping up on this tip, the, the second man in the car with Donald Trump and the meme that you provided was Mark Andreessen and it looks like he has been brought on to the Department of War, which is, it's brought, he's been brought on to the Department of War's new Defense Policy Board. So historically you'd think these would be weapons manufacturers, logistics companies. And now we've got AI investors on the board as well.
- [08:49]
B
Yeah, you know, list listed first here on the list in this, this pr. Granted I think this is probably alphabetical by last name, so it might be a coincidence, but just interesting to see him right there at the top of the list. You know, they, I believe they dissolved the, the Defense Policy Board as it ex existed when, when Trump came into office again in 25. And it's, I think it's kind of been on hiatus until now. So. Yeah, just there are more names on the list below that we didn't screen cap. But a very interesting top candidate there to be included. And it's not, it's obviously not just AI. It's, you know, with the, the other main kind of sexy theme in VC right now is defense tech and just hard industry more generally. But I, I think that, you know, it tracks, it lines up that the, the Dow would, would want the, you know, the support, the influence the, the advice of a key figure across all of those industries. Kind of a bellwether for, you know, where, where technology is going and where importantly technological investment is going. And right now it's the, the union of AI, defense tech, hard industry generally, again, deep tech with, with Dow, with the Pentagon and defense spending. Just a theme that's getting louder and louder by the day. Does that have meaningful like kind of dystopian implications? Like yeah, it, it very well may. But from just again, kind of like an investor's perspective, 10,000 foot view top down, just no data point kind of on, on that exact same theme of the, the growing intertwining of kind of frontier technology and especially the strategic industries, you know, with, with the government. Once again.
- [10:21]
A
Yeah, you have to hold a super position in your mind if they have the dystopian sort of, you have to be cautious of the dystopian potential that the government getting involved in the way that it is in your mind. But on the other side, the other side of the coin is, hey, we are at this inflection point and it is time to sort of batten down the hatches and focus on taking advantage of these technological innovations and making sure we lead. And another way to read this is it seems like the Trump administration is very focused on making sure that we lead here, which is good to see.
- [10:53]
B
Yeah. And the other, you know, it plays really well into this, this next headline or set of headlines as well on what Trump says about TSMC doubling down in with their planned Arizona investments in the fabs there, he says that in addition to this doubling, which I think was actually announced a couple of weeks ago, I missed it originally. It kind of flew under my radar at least. But he was promoting it last week and then said, you know, we can have 50% of the share market by the time I leave office. You know what we have now, nothing. So we're going from 0 to 50% share in 2 ish years, which you could take to mean that he's planning to run for like three more terms to get, to get to that target. But either way, you know, I obviously it plays into everything we've just talked about with kind of the intersection, the growing intersection of the government and AI, broadly construed. But I think this stuff is relevant as well from a bitcoin perspective just because, and from a general like portfolio allocation perspective just because if I look at all these headlines, if I look at the spending required for this, and yes, obviously in this case, like TSMC is funding it, we can talk about tax incentives, we can talk about different subsidies being provided, but private industry is funding a lot of this. But in a world where you need this massive and rapid physical build out of difficult to construct infrastructure that historically takes years like a fab is very, very difficult to kind of get up and running, especially you know, on the leading edge and getting many of those set up and getting to the point where you could even come close to sniffing anything like 50% of the chip of chip industry of at least leading edge fabs in the world, you know, and in that world, in the world where you've got the government taking a 5% stake in OpenAI and you know, presumably pushing it forward very hard in terms of its scale, its data center capacity that has access to its involvement in corporate life, all those things like basically that is just not really a world to me that's compatible with anything but fiscal largesse. It's not really a world that's compatible with, you know, fiscal rectitude and rate hikes and keeping a close eye on the Phillips Curve and basically all of the, the kind of tools of conventional monetary and fiscal policy and kind of the neoliberal world that we've had post 1971 basically. And so I think that's one of the reasons it's important to keep track of this stuff. Even if all you care about is Bitcoin, you're never using AI and you think it's all a scam or something or just you don't want anything to do with it. I think all of this is directly relevant to, because of the scale of it. It's all directly relevant to the backdrop that you face as a, as a bitcoin holder. Not to mention as it relates to the dystopian implications, the things you may want to keep an eye on as someone who is say, liberty minded and individual rights minded and how that may play into the choices you make in your personal life. But either way, in this increasingly connected kind of world, increasingly connected set of policy decisions that are being made, I don't think you can ignore this stuff. I don't think that you can just sit there and act like it doesn't matter. This is very relevant on a lot of dimensions.
- [13:51]
A
Yeah, the scale of the capital being deployed warrants paying attention whether or not you'd like it. I mean, in that note too, I mean, you know, a few more headlines here on the chip side. South Korea says Samsung SK Hynix Investing in AI Semiconductor megaprojects. Apple seeks approval to buy chips from blacklisted Chinese company. And then Andrew Karen, who's an incredible follow if you're not following yet, writes very eloquently on what's happening AI. He had this, this post that went very viral at the beginning of last week, which was. I'm posting this prediction now so I can quote it later. There has been a significant breakthrough in architecture specifically around memory efficiency, not by one of the big labs, but by a team that was spun out of OpenAI and it's not SSI. They will probably announce it soon. So this has been one of the bigger themes in recent months is this focus on memory. Dram Micron, SK Hynix and others seeing incredible valuation expansion as the supply constraint on memory has people banging down their doors. And I think one thing that that is that we've touched on and others have been saying is like yes, there's, there's so much demand for this memory, it's likely that there's going to be some sort of innovative breakthrough that makes it more efficient. And that's what Andrew Karen is alluding to here.
- [15:08]
B
Yeah, you know, I included this just because to your point, this has been the, the, the bottleneck trade du jour of kind of the AI complex and it just as, as it becomes the more and more kind of the tall poppy of like bottlenecks and issues within governing the build out here and governing the pace at which this stuff can be can move forward. If you take it seriously that the federal government sees this as effectively a national security issue of winning this race. Right. Rightly or wrongly. And you're, and you're a memory bro. I think you should consider the incentives that the government faces and that companies face and that developers who are outside the memory oligopoly face to both provide an alternative but also to get new supply from somewhere. Even given the significant amount of time that it takes to stand up new DRAM capacity, the capex is eventually going to come one way or the other if it's as important as the government thinks it is and or the alternatives are eventually going to come in terms of different architectures or different clever things you do with software or whatever it may be or perhaps even at as the Apple headline shows, you know, come from carve outs with our rival across the pond in China in terms of providing additional capacity that way. So again I think it's just like another example of like this is something to watch for correlations basically going to one in terms of, you know, old rules needing to be somewhat thrown out and needing to Always keep in mind there are going to be. I don't think this race is going to stop just because there's an oligopoly printing, you know, 90% gross margins and basically holding an industry hostage. I think we should prepare for there to be either some combination of crazy new capex incremental breakthroughs or just incremental supply source from elsewhere. So this would be something to watch too as it relates to the government's kind of influence over, let's say the trade as well as just what, you know, the natural path of innovation can do.
- [17:06]
A
Yeah, we had a major breakthrough on the compute front, on the GPU front last week with the. I forget the name of the company, but they basically came out and said they can do the training much more efficiently and optimize for memory much more efficiently too. I think they've redesigned.
- [17:22]
B
Are you thinking of etched?
- [17:23]
A
Yes.
- [17:23]
B
Yeah, yeah, it'd be interesting. We don't have to get into etched versus Nvidia versus the rest on the show. But no doubt there are going to be a thousand ways to skin this cat, you know, whether it's memory or something else over the next few years. So I. Particularly if the incentives are there from, you know, the highest level.
- [17:43]
A
Yeah. And I think, I mean also if you're just looking at like the earnings report of Meta, specifically what they're talking about, like how quickly they're running out of compute and how quickly they're trying to accelerate the capacity expansion of the compute that they operate and they keep think they're going in and saying, all right, we need to expand capacity. And they're thinking they're estimating on the high end and then they get the capacity up and running. They realize like demand's still way higher. We haven't even, we haven't even probably broken the, the 0.1% of the adoption curve yet of the agentic economy. Just I think we've been beating this dead horse for, for many weeks, but the demand for compute is going to go, to go exponential, parabolic all the way, like to levels that we can't even fathom. And on that note, I think you highlighted this tweet from Matt Dratch, which I'm not going to read the whole thing because it's a bit long, but I think it builds on a theme that we talked about last week, which is this open source versus frontier model sort of question that many people have. What's going to win out? I think what you said last week is being confirmed here, which is going to be A combination of the two.
- [18:53]
B
Yeah, yeah, I think it's just an interesting one. People can read at their leisure. If you're watching on YouTube or something, you can look at the pieces we've highlighted. But basically, yeah, I think there' as you've seen, I think there's a contingency of say, bitcoiners, bitcoin community, or just kind of people online who are kind of desperate to call everything a bubble and call every market top, call 20 of the last two market tops. But there's this view that, well, AI is going to be not monetizable on the frontier because everything's going to get commoditized by cheap open source models and Chinese models. And as we know, China always wins. And so there's kind of nothing here. And this is all just shoving money into a furnace. I think it behooves people, I think, to read a post like this. Matt Dratch is a PM at Exodus Point and just kind of think through whether that's actually true or whether AI as it develops will look something like the human economy that we already have, where you have a very small amount of people driving a significant amount of value and getting paid accordingly. Right. There aren't that many on Wall Street. There aren't that many Ken Griffins or Stan Druckenmillers or Paul Drew Joneses in any industry of your choice, whether it's tech or whatever. I'm sure we've all worked in a place where you can identify someone who's like 10x or 100x whatever, better than you and anybody else, and those guys get compensated accordingly. And so I think, yeah, there's going to be a world where it just behooves people to realize like there probably will be meaningful strategic value in frontier intelligence. Now, who gets access to that? Does that become basically gated for national security reasons, or does it only go to the top 50 companies in the world? Not really an outcome that I'd want to see. But I think you're kind of burying your head in the sand if you're trying to make the argument that because open source intelligence will improve and will be cheap, ergo no one will ever pay for Frontier tokens. At some point, you know, I think the. I think it's probably going to be just the opposite. There will be a small amount of incredibly valuable frontier tokens consumed. And that means that effectively there is probably going to continue to be all of these types of headlines that, you know, that we have talked about today as it relates to you Know the government's view of how involved they should be on kind of the frontier side.
- [21:02]
A
Yeah, that's something developing. We will obviously stay on top of it. Something that we covered last week. Who knows what's happening with the, with the ceasefire. Is it on, is it off? I have no idea right now. It could be on, could be off. It's, it's probably like you said last week, not in the best interest of either side to get clarity and a resolution to what's happening. But let's look at the data and the data is looking pretty good if you would like cheaper gas. Gas prices. Saudi oil flow hit 90 of pre war rate as ships exit Hermuz, Iran's floating oil stockpile swells as major buyers stay away from them. So I think what we talked about probably like a month or two into the war, it became clear that the disruption in the straight up for me is it's actually been good for the US in terms of its control over oil flows. And I think one of our biggest allies in the Middle East, Saudi Arabia, hitting their flow, hitting 90%, yet people staying away from buying Iranian oil. And it seems like the power structure of the oil market has shifted in our direction. And last week when we met the price of WTI was at $70 as we speak right now it's at $69. So WTI coming down as well. Yeah.
- [22:16]
B
You know, as much as I didn't want to include any Iran headlines, finally I felt like this was just an interesting com of seeing Saudi ramp back up to close to pre war rates while Iran is having much more difficulty actually moving its stockpiled inventory, basically 90% of which I believe is still sitting on the water with no clear destination. And a big chunk of that is because China's independent oil refiners who were previously the main offtake valve for a lot of this flow, have not returned to market very quickly. Could be a lot of different reasons for that. But in any case, it's a really interesting bifurcation to see, especially during this kind of 60 day ceasefire window where if you're Iran, you probably want a better negotiating hand than that. You don't want to be struggling to. Oil is a massive driver of financial flows for the country. You probably don't want to be in a position of not being able to move a meaningful amount of that stockpile while you're kind of awaiting final negotiations for the current Memorandum of understanding. So again, just another narrative violation here as it relates to what the outcome of this whole conflict was going to be and kind of what it means for the US and China's relative leverage. So definitely keep an eye on that one. I'm sure we haven't heard the end of it because, well, you know, we'll have more to Discuss when the 60 day MoU window winds up, but I think definitely a data point on the direction of what we've been talking about.
- [23:41]
A
Yeah, I mean you glossed over but I think it's important to know particularly in the context of bitcoin China, who knows what's going on there? I'm sure you've seen it. But like the charts of the Chinese housing market seems to be collapsing. It's at levels that were not seen since 20 years ago. And just tying this to bitcoin, I think many people are focusing on the defense policy and whether or not we're going to spin up the money printers here in the US to ensure that we win the AI battle. I think another sort of driver for bitcoin, despite the fact that China has banned bitcoin, bitcoin mining many times, I think life finds a way. And if you, if you live in an economy that is, is going to turn on the money printer, which China has. If you've been following Michael Howe from Capital Wars, I mean he's been pointing this out throughout the year, China has been driving global liquidity higher and their housing market is a big part of their economy, particularly their, their citizen savings accounts. And I think if that is viewed as systemically important, they will continue to turn the liquidity pumps on there that could, that could be beneficial for bitcoin before we even see liquidity turning up here in the West. And so that's something to pay attention to as well. And then another bullish thing for bitcoin. President Trump disclosed that he has more than $50 million held in cold storage.
- [25:00]
B
Yeah, look, so this is for, you know, so qualifications here like obviously on its face like Ketteris Paris or prima facie, like a pretty, pretty bullish headline for the President, United States to be holding that amount of bitcoin is particularly in self custody. But you know, to be fair, this was from December 31, 2025. So perhaps, you know, perhaps he has not had diamond hands since then. Given the volatility this year. We'll have to wait and see till basically next year what he actually did. Since this is only an annual disclosure. We also don't have anything to comp it to from the prior year. So I don't know, is this up, is this down versus what he had before. So hard to say. But all the qualifications aside, it just kind of in line with everything that we've been saying as it relates to bitcoin over these last six months. Not to beat the dead horse too much, but these are the kinds of things that you'd be looking at if you really cared about holding this thing for 5, 10 plus years. What are the people with influence doing? Are they putting their money where their mouth is? And certainly I think we can make a lot of arguments about how appropriate it is for Trump to be putting his money where his mouth is in the office that he holds, particularly as it relates to world liberty.
- [26:06]
A
Fi.
- [26:07]
B
But in any case, you know, I think it's the headline kind of speaks for itself, right? Like if you, if you are generally aligned with the idea that Trump is positioning his portfolio, you know, for the benefit of his, his family and his personal wealth, relative to where he sees US Policy going and the policies he wants to enact. Well, this would be kind of in line with exactly what you'd want to see if from just a perspective of Bitcoin's price. If you were bullish on bitcoin and you wanted to hold Bitcoin. So, you know, do you like it as an American who generally prefers to see, you know, perhaps less, less active trading and direct financial involvement from the chief executive, you know, no, probably not. But it kind of speaks for itself, right, as it relates to where you see price signals going. So worth keeping in mind in the mosaic of what's happening under the hood in this bear market.
- [27:00]
A
A quick Google search. Donald Trump's net worth is estimated to be between 6 and $6.5 billion. So this would be less than a 1% allocation. Maybe it's just prudent portfolio management here, as BlackRock recommended.
- [27:16]
B
He's just right in line with their
- [27:18]
A
classic recommendation about a 0.8% allocation compared to his net worth. And last but not least, we mentioned at the end of last week's episode because the news dropped right before we hit reports, so we didn't have time to include it in the deck. But it would be remiss for us not to touch on it. Last week, Strategy announced a digital credit capital framework designed to strengthen digital credit, enhance liquidity, preserve long term bitcoin exposure, and support long term value creation. This is basically a playbook set up to tell the market how they're going to manage their balance sheet and when they they will. I've never heard that ring before. Imminent threat, national flash flood warning. Okay, that's what I got. Pray for me the set up the framework and then this morning hit the tape that that strategy sold 3,588 bitcoin for $216 million to fund dividends on their digital credit securities.
- [28:12]
B
Yeah, you know, I think we are Our very good friend Matt O', Dell, managing partner at 1031, has been asking us why we're not talking about Stretchmoor on the show. I think he's an ardent Stretch bull. So it felt like we needed to maybe address it a little more. Frankly, I think this is everything we've talked about thus far today and in our prior episodes to me is actually much more important for bitcoin over the long term versus what one company does with its bitcoin treasury. That said, I will say I don't know that either of us have particularly interesting takes on Stretch or the prefs. I think we would both be of the viewpoint that this is not inherently a Ponzi scheme, but is ultimately just something that is very path dependent in its success and it requires bitcoin to do certain things over a certain amount of time. It requires prudent issuance and policies around that from the company and looks like they're certainly moving in a better direction. As of last week, I'm not totally clear on why after raising a USD reserve for about 17 or 18 months of dividends, they dipped into the bitcoin pot to fund dividends this week versus just using the cash reserves. But that hit the wire right before this episode. So there may be something I'm missing there. But yeah, I think this is a piece of the overall bitcoin mosaic that definitely has impact on price day to day, particularly in this bear market when there's an ongoing overhang of what the company's going to have to do and whether they'll be liquidated or not. I think there's probably meaningfully excessive bearishness on that front, which is not an endorsement to go by MSTR or any of these vehicles. But either way, to me, as I look back, as I pull back to view and I look at everything that the administration's doing, we've talked about it a lot internally. I just asked myself if you were the US Government and you wanted to build a material bitcoin position and you were already pretty comfortable, demonstrably comfortable, and playing in the public equity markets from the public purse with, you know, different companies with strategically advantaged positions in their industries, and you wanted a quick and insurmountable kind of lead over other over other countries with your, you know, bitcoin exposure, with your strategic Bitcoin reserve. And you wanted to do that in a way that was, you know, credibly budget neutral and you could maybe do it out of the, the ESF at the treasury for under 40, $50 billion. And you wanted to buy from willing sellers. You didn't want to telegraph a five year plan like the ARMA does or like the Bitcoin act did to allow the market to front run your bitcoin purchases. I just asked myself how would I do it? And I'll leave it as a rhetorical question for the listeners. But I think all that is to say I think there's just a lot more going on in the relevant, the mosaic and matrix of things for people to think about as they evaluate bitcoin for their personal portfolios and just as a strategic asset for the US There's a lot more going on broadly across AI, across reindustrialization, across what the administration might want to do creatively with its portfolio than just what happens with stretch day to day. So yeah, that's where I'll leave it. I'll kick it back to you, Marty, and you can take us home.
- [31:26]
A
I'm a big believer in nominative determinism, strategy, strategic reserve, drop the micro. I'll say it there. I've been saying this on the show. Wouldn't be surprised. I mean we clipped something that I said a couple of months ago on tftc, set it out. There was a very strong reaction to it. People say I'm crazy and I'm saying, hey, I'm not saying this is the case, but I think it is plausible and it is something that you have to keep in mind as we move forward and agree with what you said, especially considering the willingness for the Trump administration to take stakes and publicly traded companies here in the US and just a note on basically the forward guidance and balance sheet management strategy has enacted. I said this last year to your point. I think the bearishness is way overextended. I think the thought of microstrategy getting margin called is being put out there by people who don't understand. I don't think they could ever get margin called. They, they have plenty of bitcoin. They're going to be able to survive. Yes, they may have to sell some, they could even have to sell a material, material portion of their treasury, but I think they will survive in the long term. My, my qualm has always been with the forward, forward guidance which, which really started this this time last year, their Q2 earnings call, where Michael Taylor gave forward guidance on how they were going to utilize the atm. And within two weeks, he sort of me on that forward guidance. So from a management perspective, that signaled to me like, hey, you may want to put some forward guidance out there and stick to it to make sure that people are confident in what you're doing. And I think since then, they've sort of strayed from forward guidance and been a bit erratic with how they've been going at these things. And I think they're learning on the go. And hopefully this digital credit capital framework is new guidance and framework that they will actually play within, the bounds of, which should give more confidence in the market that they're actually going to do what they say they do. That's my thoughts on it. I'm not saying it's a Ponzi scheme or anything like that. I think strategy, if they want to gain confidence in the markets, like, all right, set forward guidance and then actually follow up on it, which I think is a pretty sensible take.
- [33:37]
B
Yeah, there's. Last thing I'll say is there's a. I tweeted like a year ago maybe that listening to all MSTR discourse feels like the meme of Inglourious Basterds, where the guy is putting up, you know, three or three, whichever it is, the wrong number, the wrong number of fingers for what he's trying to order. And you've got the. The other guy looking directly into the camera because he knows, like, this guy's a fake. That's what all of this feels like on basically every side to me. So I just. I've kind of frankly tuned out a lot of the most vitriolic MSTR discourse from both bulls and bears. You know, cosine what you say pretty much wholeheartedly and again would just encourage people to step back and think about the much bigger picture that's kind of going on here.
- [34:17]
A
Yeah, we'll see you guys next week.