Podcast Summary: TFTC – Ten31 Timestamp: To Rule the Waves

Date: March 11, 2026
Host: Marty Bent
Guest/Co-host: John (Ten31)
Main Theme:
A deep dive into the major escalation of conflict in the Middle East—specifically the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, attacks on global oil infrastructure, and the cascading effects on global energy markets, inflation, US-China relations, and the evolving role of Bitcoin as a macro asset class.

Episode Overview

This episode centers around the unprecedented disruption in global oil markets following the escalation of conflict in the Middle East. Marty Bent and John analyze the repercussions for energy prices, global supply chains, US financial stability, the new cold war with China, and how these themes intersect with the contemporary Bitcoin landscape. The conversation features timely analysis of energy geopolitics, national security, private credit stress, and the increasingly strategic nature of resource control.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. The Escalation in the Middle East and Global Oil Shock

• The episode opens with John confirming he “aggressively monitored” the situation over the weekend as a “true Twitter addict” [00:04].

• The Strait of Hormuz—channeling ~20% of the world's petroleum—has ground to a halt after Iranian threats and direct attacks on oil and gas infrastructure across Iran, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar [00:25–01:49].

• Marty underscores the global stakes:

  “There will be knock on effects throughout the global economy and particularly on the price of goods which…they’re not going to go lower from here.” [00:57]

• John contextualizes this event as:

  “Probably the biggest oil shock that the world has seen since I think 1983…Some are pointing back to the Suez crisis even before that.” [01:28]

• Oil prices soaring to nearly $120/barrel; shipping at a standstill due to insurability and risk [01:49–04:12].

2. Intertwined Effects on US Financial Markets

• The spike in oil is matched by a rise in the 10-year Treasury yield—a sharp contrast to its “safe haven” reputation [04:56–06:42].

  “This is the bedrock of the global capital stack...so to see the 10-year at least not getting an incremental bid on a conflict that is...materially worse than consensus...is a noteworthy move.” – John [05:09]

• Risk of structural upward pressure on inflation, compounding an already-stressed US debt and fixed income market [05:47].

• Marty asserts that markets have not fully grasped the severity of the refinery attacks:

  “Refineries…a key part of the oil and gas supply chain that you can’t just…if you’re going to have any part that you want to protect the most, it’s probably the refineries.” [07:41]

• G7 response includes Strategic Petroleum Reserve releases to calm prices short-term [08:25–08:56].

• Futures markets appear to “bet” on only a brief disruption, but the risk is significant if it persists [08:56–10:59].

3. Geopolitics: Chess Match with China & Global Supply Chains

• Marty outlines a “predominant thesis” among analysts:

  “This is a way to curb China’s acceleration towards becoming a global dominant player…If this is what they’re trying to do, it could be effective.” [11:00]

• He cites sourcing showing China gets 45% of its oil from the Strait, and discusses impacts on chip production due to disruption of LNG/helium [11:14–12:23].

  “The halt of Qatar’s LNG production threatens 21% of global helium supply...this could seriously perturb the ability of Asia to produce chips...” [12:23]

• John details the US-China standoff in commodities and tech, referencing both the “China will eat our lunch” crowd and the “Dollar Milkshake” thesis [12:48–13:42].

  “The US…has leverage points too, right? We are…the world's biggest energy producer…energy independent in a way that China’s not right now.” [14:29] “The US…has a chokehold on the machines that make the [semiconductor] machines…kill switches built into their machines.” [15:16]

• The hosts agree: the Pentagon likely anticipated the asymmetrical impacts, and the chess match with China colors all aspects of this “borderline existential conflict” [16:52–17:10].

4. Short-Term Pain, Long-Term Strategy: US Energy Security

• Marty shares a recurring guest’s take:

  “…if we can cripple the supply lines to critical fuels…necessary for large manufacturing in Asia, we’re going to be fine…US can stomach some short-term pain…” [17:12]

• US can “inoculate” itself through North American resources (US, Canada, Mexico), and recent moves with Venezuelan crude [18:17].

5. Financial System Fragility: Private Credit and Structural Weakness

• John notes “cockroaches in the system” per Jamie Dimon, as BlackRock and Blackstone see heavy redemptions in major private credit funds [19:13–20:36].
• Private credit stress is compounded by retiree exposure via direct and indirect investment, including insurance annuity funding [21:47].
• Marty references private equity’s “Warren Buffett route”—funneling premiums from insurers into risky private deals; stresses the systemic risk [23:30–24:28].

  “If these private equity funds are taking [annuity] premiums and putting them into risky…bets that need to be refi’d, this could be pretty cataclysmic from a financial perspective...” [24:17]

• John doubts any possibility of a declining Fed balance sheet:

  “…to do all that and think that you’re going to shrink the Fed balance sheet back to pre2020 or pre08 levels…good luck.” [25:14]

• Marty sums it up:

  “…what’s happening in the Middle East is certainly a black swan, particularly the refineries getting hit…the oil and gas supply chain being as hindered as it has been…If you have these inflationary pressures…[and] private credit faltering, needing a bailout and inflation ripping at the same time...that’s not a good situation.” [25:42–27:17]

6. Bitcoin as Macro Hedge: Price Action & Macro Backdrop

• The hosts turn to Bitcoin’s recent price resilience:

  “We’re above 69,000 after falling to 67 high 66s over the weekend.” [27:22]

• John shares a chart comparing 2025–2026 Bitcoin and gold returns, highlighting that BTC’s refusal to break down on bad news echoes post-Liberation Day 2025 [27:30–29:43].

  “…when bad news and increasingly bad news no longer causes dumps to new levels…your eyebrows should be raising when you see something like this.” [29:39]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “You can see this chart just captures well kind of what we’re looking at. The Hormuz Strait around Iran...20% of the world's liquid petroleum products is basically, traffic through there has ground to a standstill…” – John [02:38]
• “This is the bedrock of the global capital stack.” – John, on the 10-year yield, [05:09]
• “If you’re going to have any part that you want to protect the most, it’s probably the refineries.” – Marty [07:41]
• “The halt of Qatar’s LNG production threatens 21% of global helium supply. So helium is a raw input for the chip industry.” – Marty [12:23]
• “We are the world’s biggest energy producer... energy independent in a way that China’s not right now.” – John [14:27]
• “...if you’re expecting...a decline in the size of the Fed balance sheet with all these things going on…as the Morgan Freeman gif says, good luck.” – John [25:14]

Timestamps for Major Segments

• Opening & Situation Recap: [00:00–04:12]
• US Market Response & Inflation Impacts: [04:12–08:25]
• Strategic Petroleum Reserve & Market Skepticism: [08:25–10:59]
• Geopolitics & US vs China Resource Game: [10:59–16:52]
• US Energy Security & Economic Leverage: [17:12–19:10]
• Private Credit Stress & Financial System Worries: [19:10–25:14]
• Black Swans, Fed Policy, and Systemic Risk: [25:14–27:22]
• Bitcoin’s Price Action Amid Chaos: [27:22–29:43]
• Sign-off: [29:43–29:51]

Conclusion

The episode paints a vivid picture of a world grappling with a sudden and highly consequential energy shock, sharpened by great power rivalry between the US and China, a fragile financial system, and the uncertainty of how those pressures play out for inflation, national strategy, and emerging stores of value like Bitcoin. While the discussion is technical and nuanced, the tone is energetic and skeptical, trading in equal parts sarcasm, worry, and strategic optimism.

For listeners and readers:
This episode is highly recommended for a grounded, insightful perspective on the intersection of geopolitics, macroeconomics, energy, and digital assets at a historic moment.