Podcast Summary: The Agile Brand with Greg Kihlström®

Episode #736: Taking ROI models from confusion to clarity with Carlos Manalo, The Office of Experience
Date: September 18, 2025
Guests:

• Host: Greg Kihlström
• Guest: Carlos Manalo, Co-CEO and Co-Founder, The Office of Experience

Overview

This episode of The Agile Brand explores how organizations—especially in B2B e-commerce—can move from confusion to clarity in crafting ROI (Return on Investment) models for marketing and technology investments. Greg Kihlström talks with Carlos Manalo about foundational steps, common pitfalls, balancing detail, the role of agile thinking and experimentation, and the increasing influence of AI and automation on strategic ROI modeling.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Laying the Foundations of a Solid ROI Model

(03:29 – 06:35)

• Start with your Audience:
  Understand who will consume the ROI model—CEO, CFO, board, product or IT team—and tailor the narrative and depth accordingly.

  "Start with the audience. Who are they? What do they really need?" — Carlos Manalo (04:15)

• Manage Expectations:
  Set clear floors and ceilings for what ROI can realistically deliver. It's about drawing boundaries for minimum and maximum business value.

• Integrate ROI in Everything:
  ROI thinking should permeate all initiatives, not just big-ticket projects. It’s about consistent evaluation and story-building for potential returns.

2. Achieving the Right Level of Detail

(06:35 – 10:42)

• Resist Excess Complexity:
  Avoid sprawling models with hundreds of metrics. Instead, focus on a manageable handful (6–8 core measures) to facilitate accountability and action.

  "My thumbnail recommendation for everybody. Manage their expectations. Ask them what can you consume and what's going to have a material impact on your business. Generally, it's going to land in the six to eight type of range. Why? Cognitive load." — Carlos Manalo (09:14)

• ROI Models are not Static:
  Regularly recalibrate models to reflect updated priorities and business contexts—‘agile’ in both thinking and execution.

  "ROI models should not be evergreen and should be set in stone for the next 20 years. You should calibrate against mission parameters at hand..." — Carlos Manalo (09:57)

3. Pitfalls to Avoid in ROI Modeling

(11:53 – 15:11)

• Don’t Be Reactive:
  If leadership suddenly asks for justification or new metrics, don’t scramble. Instead, present what you’re already tracking and recommend additions collaboratively.

  "The worst thing you can do... is be reactive." — Carlos Manalo (12:09)

• Time Horizons Matter:
  Define clear payback periods; don’t shy away from making projections (e.g. recouping investment by 1.5 years and how).

• Avoid Vagueness ("Strategic" for its own sake):
  CFOs want tangible numbers, not just a “strategic” label.

  "All of [the CFOs] basically said, whatever you do, don't position it as strategic." — Carlos Manalo (14:44)

4. Real-World Case Studies

(15:20 – 19:12)

• Course Correction Mid-Stream:
  One firm launched a major e-commerce replatform without proper ROI tracking, necessitating a mid-project insertion of a new leader who redefined focus and reporting.

  • Lesson: Even joining a project mid-flight, it’s better to implement ROI tracking late than never.

  "Even if you don't have a leader in the very beginning or if you don't have a built out ROI model...figure out who your audience is, manage expectations, give them what they need and then manage the story of progress along the way." — Carlos Manalo (17:28)

• Zero-Sum Budgeting Gone Awry:
  Another enterprise attempted month-to-month radical budget shifts based on perceived ROI, but found success ultimately required a hybrid approach (settling into quarterly review cycles).

5. Proactively Using ROI Models for Growth & Strategy

(19:47 – 23:14)

• Scientific Method as a Guide:
  Applying "observe, question, hypothesize, experiment, conclude" cycles to marketing and tech improves risk management and drives growth.

  "What I like to add in terms of continuous improvement on Agile for B2B e-commerce is truly employing the scientific method." — Carlos Manalo (20:14)

• Agility is Not Reactivity:
  True agility is about structured experimentation, not arbitrary changes in response to failed sprints.

• ROI for Strategic Decisions:
  Example: A company is forced to justify replatforming costs not just for tech, but also the impact on sales, support, and customer success, evolving from an "ROI of e-commerce" to "ROI of omnicommerce."

  "The ROI model that we're co creating is taking on a bigger thing, but it's no longer ROI of E Commerce, it's ROI of omnicommerce." — Carlos Manalo (24:39)

6. Organizational Buy-In & Communication

(25:06 – 27:25)

• Executive Sponsorship is Non-Negotiable:
  For true adoption and cross-departmental impact, get buy-in from as high in the organization as possible.

  "You do have to get executive sponsorship from the very top as high as you can go and as clear as you can get them." — Carlos Manalo (25:49)

• Cross-Functional Relevance:
  Especially with AI and automation, successful ROI models affect multiple departments and can’t exist in a functional silo.

7. The Future: Real-Time Analytics & AI Integration

(27:25 – 29:15)

• Real-Time Impact Tracking:
  Modern tools enable real-time attribution and measurement of customer engagement, conversion rates, and order values.

• Setting Clear, Universal Levers:
  Identifying a few “universal” metrics (customers engaged, conversion, average order size) enables rapid and meaningful ROI analysis.

  "It's all rooted in the fact that you have to be very clear about the ROI components that you're tracking so that you can deliver off of that real time analytics and bundle that into the story of progress, which I know all these teams want to do." — Carlos Manalo (29:02)

8. Staying Agile as a Leader

(29:17 – 30:55)

• Continuously Learn and Listen:
  Read widely, speak with peers and clients, and scan for both near-term (Horizon 1) and future (Horizon 2/3) opportunities.

  "How do you stay relevant? Well, it's not just consuming, it's not just hearing, it's also having a point of view." — Carlos Manalo (30:18)

Notable Quotes

• "Start with the audience. Who are they? What do they really need?" — Carlos Manalo (04:15)
• "Ask them what can you consume and what's going to have a material impact on your business. Generally, it's going to land in the six to eight type of range. Why? Cognitive load." — Carlos Manalo (09:14)
• "The worst thing you can do when you get asked to justify a current program...is be reactive." — Carlos Manalo (12:09)
• "Whatever you do, don't position it as strategic." — CFOs, as relayed by Carlos Manalo (14:44)
• "ROI models should not be evergreen...you should calibrate against mission parameters at hand, put a time horizon to it." — Carlos Manalo (09:57)
• "The ROI model...is no longer ROI of E Commerce, it's ROI of omnicommerce." — Carlos Manalo (24:39)

Key Timestamps

• [03:29] – Establishing foundations for ROI in B2B e-commerce
• [06:35] – Striking the right balance of detail in ROI modeling
• [11:53] – Common pitfalls in modeling and reporting ROI
• [15:32] – Case studies: learning from real organizational journeys
• [19:47] – Using ROI models to drive proactive strategy
• [23:14] – Example of using ROI for major strategic repositioning
• [25:49] – The importance of executive sponsorship
• [27:41] – The future: real-time analytics and AI’s role
• [29:28] – Personal approach to staying agile and relevant

Episode Tone & Style

• Conversational & Candid: Carlos’s narratives and Greg's agile lens keep the dialogue relatable, pragmatic, and just technical enough for practitioners.
• Real-World Examples: The show is peppered with war stories from B2B e-commerce trenches, demystifying abstract topics.
• Actionable & Strategic: The focus is always on practical steps, empowering listeners to implement or overhaul their own ROI thinking.

Conclusion

Carlos Manalo distills three decades of enterprise e-commerce experience into actionable frameworks and memorable advice:

• Start with audience needs and calibrate ROI models accordingly.
• Prioritize a handful of actionable metrics—avoid the trap of over-detail.
• Proactively drive value, not just track it—through scientific, agile iteration.
• Secure exec-level buy-in to scale impact.
• Look ahead: AI and real-time data are reshaping how ROI is tracked and acted upon.

This episode is a must-listen for anyone architecting technology or marketing investments for true business value—not just in B2B commerce, but in any results-driven organization.