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Al Franken
Hey everybody, we got a great one today. You know, for a change, my guest
Al Franken (Host/Main Speaker)
is friend of the show Mark Leibovich
Al Franken
of the Atlantic, who's always great to take a look at the midterms. Now we're five months out and there's a lot of races to cover. We also talk about the parties and where they stand and what voters are really thinking about.
Al Franken (Host/Main Speaker)
It's sometimes hard to say if Trump
Al Franken
wants his party to prevail, he was
Al Franken (Host/Main Speaker)
asked this week what he thought about
Al Franken
inflation going up to 4.2%. His response? I love the inflation. Now why would he say that? And an even bigger question is why did he have to put V in front of it? He claims he said it was because inflation is going to go down when the war ends. And when will that be? Well, I'm recording this on Friday and he's saying that a peace deal is imminent. Of course I want that to be true, but I've got to admit, I'm skeptical. I mean, I really want to be fair to the man. No, I don't. You wonder why? Oh, could it be because he says that every week? And if he miraculously ends the war before this episode airs on Sunday, I forgive him for putting the V in front of inflation. So Trump said about Graham Platner, and this is a quote, he's worse than any human being that's ever run for office. Why doesn't a member of the press ask him, Mr. President, are you counting you? I mean, that would be a good way to go out, wouldn't it, if you wanted to leave in a blaze of glory. Now, Mark and I go into a number of races, including one in my home state of Minnesota, where I've endorsed Lieutenant Governor Peggy Flanagan. The primary isn't until August 4th, so she, she's still got a lot of campaign to run before she gets the nomination. She's been endorsed by the Democratic Farmer Labor Party at the convention, and for good reason. Peggy served on the Minneapolis School board. She was state legislature. She ran the Children's Defense Fund and has been the lieutenant governor of for eight years in Minnesota. She is, at heart, a great legislator. She led the effort to increase the minimum wage and provide paid family leave. She's truly a champion of family values. Now, the first time I met Peggy was well before I ran for the Senate. Peggy contacted me to invite me to a Native American conference. Now on snl. My comedy partner, Tom Davis, and I had done a bit on the show with the premise of what if the Indians had won? I played the host of a news interview called Powwow with the Press. And Tom was the chairman of the Bureau of White Man Affairs. And in the interview, I challenged him on the names of the major league lacrosse teams like the Milwaukee Dagos, who Tom described as a violent, greasy people who wear black pointy moccasins, and the Cleveland Kikes, whose mascot is a screaming rabbi who really knows the value of a buffalo chip. So I showed the bit to Peggy and asked her if we could show the bit at the conference. And to my surprise, she said, yeah, sure, and it was a big head. And she and I just clicked. So when I ran for the Senate, I asked Peggy to be my Native American Advisor. We have 11 reservations in the state, and Paul Wellstone had been on the Indian Affairs Committee, so I wanted to be on the Indian Affairs Committee. So one of Peggy's first tasks was
Al Franken (Host/Main Speaker)
to prep me for my powwow, my first powwow.
Al Franken
They're called powwows.
Al Franken (Host/Main Speaker)
And so Peggy tells me a powwow
Al Franken
is a celebration of our heritage. There's a huge circle with drums. People come out in their regalia. First there are veterans. American Indians volunteer for military service more than any other group in this country. We have World War II. This is a few years ago. The World War II veterans come out. Then the Korean War veterans and the Vietnam vets, and then Iraq. And then everyone comes out and circles around and dances. And so she says to me, don't dance. And I say, don't dance? She said, yeah, don't dance. And I say, why not? And she says, governor Pawlenty danced two years ago, and they haven't stopped making fun of him since. I say, okay, don't dance. And she says, don't dance. Don't dance. So I go up to the Red Lake Reservation. Just before I get there, before the powwow starts, just right before exactly what Peggy describes, drummers begin playing the veterans come out, people circle around and I'm standing there on the periphery and one of a guy dances up to me and says, why don't you come in and dance? And I said, well, maybe. And he said, we'll respect you more if you dance. So there's a break. The chairman of the tribe introduces me. Everyone gets into in these bleachers. Peggy asked me, you know, what are you going to say? And I said, well, I'm going to talk about, you know, the treaties we've abrogated. And she goes, yeah, well they've heard that before. They're going to want you to be funny. And I said, well, my, my, my team has told me not to be funny. And she says, they're going to want you to be funny. So the chairman introduces me and then I say, you know, we abrogated all these treaties. We're supposed to fully fund health care and fully fund education. And they're looking at me like, yeah, we've heard this before. So I realized, oh, Peggy's right. So I said, well, look, I'm Jewish. No reaction. And I said, let me try that again, I'm Jewish. Get a huge applause and laughter. And I go, okay, Peggy's right. And then I proceed, you know, to be kind of fun and get some laughs. And I'm going like, this is great. And I say to them, I've been told not to dance, but I'm going to make a deal with you. I will dance if every one of you agrees not to make fun of me after I leave. So I need a show of hands. Well, about 2/3 raise their hand. I said, no, no, no, it's got to be everyone. And everyone raised their hand and I'm going like, I'm a genius, this is great. And at that point, one of the drummers starts drumming and then another drum and another. And everyone starts howling with laughter because they know that now I'm gonna have to dance alone. I know it too. And I can't believe this is. I'm thinking to myself, what an idiot. I should have listened to Peggy. But I have to do it. And I start dancing and everyone keeps laughing and I'm going around and I can't look at anybody. And then a little kid comes up to me, a five year old boy, and he takes my hand and starts dancing with me. And then some more kids come in and then everyone else joins in and we're dancing and I become a dancing fool. I dance like four or five dances and then a woman dances up to me and Says, you dance like a white guy. And I said, what about the agreement? She said, the agreement was, we don't make fun of you after you leave. And that's what it was like. I reported back to Peggy and she was very mad at me. But sincerely, I'm so glad Peggy is running to represent the people of Minnesota in the Senate and she's going to be a great senator. Well, we've got a great one today, you know, for a change. Our friend Mark Leibovich joins us. Hey, Mark.
Al Franken (Host/Main Speaker)
Hey, Mark.
Mark Leibovich
How you doing?
Al Franken (Host/Main Speaker)
Okay. It's great to have you back on the show. One last time, let's, let's talk about the midterms.
Mark Leibovich
Okay.
Al Franken (Host/Main Speaker)
As we speak, we don't know all the players. There's still a few primaries on the way. What I'm hoping to do today is give my audience a chance to look into where things stand right now and give them a sense of what to look for as the midterms approach. We'll start with the state of the party. Talk about Trump for a second.
Mark Leibovich
Oh, let's talk about Trump.
Al Franken (Host/Main Speaker)
Yeah. Well, we'll get into some specific races.
Mark Leibovich
Yeah, I mean, Trump, like he has been pretty much for the last decade is the single overriding factor issue person, you know, in this whole race. I mean, he seems to be the biggest asset the Democrats have going for them because them a lot to work with. And his numbers are way down. They're like in the 30s now.
Al Franken (Host/Main Speaker)
You covered the, the race in California, the primaries in California, and you wrote a great piece in the Atlantic Battle Trump, of course, about five days in after. It takes him a while to count there. And he said that, that the voting was rigged.
Mark Leibovich
Yes, he did. Yeah, we heard this before. No, I mean basically every time it takes a while to count votes, which is true in a lot of states, especially when mail in ballots are happening and it takes a while to process them and especially in the states. So California, Trump is going to cast dispersions. He's going to say, oh, well, we're in the lead, so let's just stop the counting now. Whereas as often happens, I mean, Democrats have a higher rate of sending in ballots by mail, partly because their standard bearer is not always telling them how corrupt and unreliable mail in voting is. Yeah, you have this situation where it looks like if a Republican is in the lead, something is being stolen from him or her.
Al Franken (Host/Main Speaker)
And of course, Democrats waited a while because things were shaping up late and they wanted to know who to vote for in this weird system where both parties are on the ballot. So Trump was complaining because Spencer Pratt was running for mayor.
Mark Leibovich
Yep.
Al Franken (Host/Main Speaker)
Okay. In a city that is 18% Republican. He's a Republican.
Mark Leibovich
He is.
Al Franken (Host/Main Speaker)
And he said the fact that Pratt didn't win said it was fixed. Now I want to play just this great clip of Trump with Kristen Welker on Meet the Press. Here we go.
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Mark Leibovich
Okay.
Al Franken (Host/Main Speaker)
Sometimes you just forget what a dickie is.
Mark Leibovich
It's not even a dick. It was just like, it's so you just kind of, you just gotta shake your head. I mean, that was such a spectacle. I mean, if, now, if anyone who watched the video of that one thing that I do think maybe didn't get enough attention was at the very end, Trump gets up, he's kind of hunched over, he kind of balances himself a little bit on Kristen Welker as he's walking off. And he damn near keeled over, I thought, I mean, the President of the United States almost keeled over while storming off the cell. He didn't fast enough to storm off. And I thought that that was, that was kind of a new dimension that we've seen. And. Yeah, so.
Al Franken (Host/Main Speaker)
And the sleeping. And the sleeping.
Mark Leibovich
Yeah, he, he.
Al Franken (Host/Main Speaker)
Did you see where Ted Luth showed Marco Rubio video of him sleeping? And when Marco Rubio was speaking at a cabinet meeting and he was, he was asleep. And he asked Rubio about that and Rubio said he wasn't, he doesn't sleep enough. He calls me in the middle of the night. He calls me at 3 in the morning. He wasn't. And he's. No, he's not asleep there. And then Lou said, you're lying. Which I think was the wrong thing to say. I think he should have just said, let's play it again.
Mark Leibovich
Yeah.
Al Franken (Host/Main Speaker)
And tell me if another person might think he was sleeping or something like that.
Mark Leibovich
Or just say, senator, what are we seeing here? I mean, you're. Help me understand why you're telling me that he's not asleep. I mean, you know, he, maybe Rubio is making, you could say he's making a valid point when he says maybe the President doesn't sleep enough because he's up at all hours and blah, blah, blah. But that doesn't mean he's not asleep.
Al Franken (Host/Main Speaker)
Sitting, Sitting There in a cabinet meeting.
Mark Leibovich
Yeah.
Al Franken (Host/Main Speaker)
Okay, so. So Trump's approval rating is in, is now mid-30s.
Mark Leibovich
Yeah. Right. Yeah. It seems to be getting sort of gradually lower. Yeah.
Al Franken (Host/Main Speaker)
And we're what, about $50 billion into the war and yet he keeps jabbering about like the arc de triumph and the UFC fight and he's not on the ballot. Are Republicans demoralized, you think?
Mark Leibovich
Probably. I don't know. I mean, they know exactly what they're dealing with here. They've been dealing with the exact same thing. Thing. I mean, first of all, it is kind of stark that, you know, the economy is what it is, inflation is what it is.
Al Franken
Yeah.
Al Franken (Host/Main Speaker)
4.2% today.
Mark Leibovich
I mean, gas prices, like, boom, it's right there. And the guy like, is a broken record about this ballroom, about the, the, you know, the reflecting pool, about, you know, the UFC fight. I mean, go, go down the list. He just does not care at all. And he's really thrown it in the Repub faces. I mean, it's not just endorsing, you know, not John Cornyn and not Cassidy, Bill Cassidy.
Al Franken (Host/Main Speaker)
Well, you know, I think if someone votes to convict you.
Mark Leibovich
Yeah.
Al Franken (Host/Main Speaker)
You have an excuse. Corny. I don't think he had a real excuse except.
Mark Leibovich
Yeah, I guess you're right.
Al Franken (Host/Main Speaker)
Yeah.
Mark Leibovich
Yeah. So, okay, he voted to convict him, but I mean, but it is a stark less. I mean, how can you not be demoralized? How can you have any self respect at all, all when the President is putting you through this? And I think on some level the President's got to be really kind of enjoying what he does to these people that he fully owns. And you know, it just becomes the more ridiculous it is, the more vivid that is also.
Al Franken
Well, like the vote they took on whether or not to approve the slush fund in the Senate. And now evidently everybody had yelled at
Al Franken (Host/Main Speaker)
Blanche, but they voted to keep it.
Mark Leibovich
Yeah, yeah. So, yeah, Todd Blanch, the acting Attorney General, who Trump is now nominated to be the full time Attorney general. Yeah. He apparently got an earful from a bunch of senators who wouldn't in their weekly Republican lunch. And of course the model the senators were would never have been that crosswise with Trump directly, but I mean, he sent a surrogate there, but yeah, I mean, look, I mean this, this, this anti. Weaponization or whatever the hell you call it, bill or fund is, it's insane, first of all, I mean, and it brings January 6th right back into the news, you know, a topic that no Republican wants to talk about or should want to talk about. You Know, it's very much of a piece where Trump only cares about either his own pet projects or his own enrichment.
Al Franken (Host/Main Speaker)
Well, speaking of enrichment, I mean, you saw the latest thing where Don Jr.
Al Franken
Invested in a startup in rare earth metals, and then The Pentagon invested $620 million in that company. Peter Navarro, the White House advisor to
Al Franken (Host/Main Speaker)
the president and friend of Don Jr.
Al Franken
S, got that done.
Mark Leibovich
It's unbelievable. I mean.
Al Franken
Yeah, and.
Al Franken (Host/Main Speaker)
And the stock doubled. And. Yeah, corruption's gonna be a big.
Mark Leibovich
Yeah, but you need to. I mean, it is, but you have so much to work with. I mean, the thing is Democrats, I mean, you can say corruption and the corruption is there and it's quite evident. But after a while, it becomes kind of like this bottleneck. Right? I mean, no, you can't expect anyone to keep straight all of this. I mean, it's mind boggling when taken together. But I mean, I think Democrats, I don't know if this is the right approach or not, but they seem to think, all right, let's stay focused on inflation, let's stay focused on billionaires and how bad they are, which does lack a certain imagination because Democrats have been sort of playing this same tune for a long time. And also the word affordability, that's something we didn't hear a year ago. But since Mamdani got elected on affordability, that's something all Democrats have to say as often as possible. And I don't know, maybe that's the way to go.
Al Franken (Host/Main Speaker)
Are Democrats getting too confident? I mean, you've said this, I think you wrote an article about, and I don't know how to think about that. I mean, they have a reason to be confident.
Mark Leibovich
I think they have a big reason, but they also have a reason to forget. I think this confidence can make them forget that they have dug a massive hole for themselves, certainly in the 2024 election. Right. I mean, they hurt themselves and put themselves at such a deficit in ways that, you know, yes, maybe there's hope for the future, but. But that's still evident. And Trump is using whatever leverage and advantage he has to do just unconscionable stuff that is very, very hard to undo. And also, Democrats lose a lot. I mean, they have had a lot of very unpleasant election nights in the last decade or so. Now, granted, midterms have gone a lot better for them, especially when Trump, you know, when Trump is not on the ballot, Republicans.
Al Franken (Host/Main Speaker)
And he won't be on the ballot in the midterm. And like, he wasn't in 18, where they lost 40 seats. So maybe it's going to reflect that.
Mark Leibovich
Yes. Although it also, they're probably not going to win 40 seats, partly because.
Al Franken (Host/Main Speaker)
No.
Mark Leibovich
A lot of what Democrats have already won in special elections and in recent elections have been winning, you know, pretty swingy districts. I mean, the only reason they were
Al Franken (Host/Main Speaker)
able to, to keep the Senate and also the gerrymandering. Yeah, no, that's, that's going to net the Republicans anywhere from five to ten seats. Right.
Mark Leibovich
Yeah. They have a much easier lift. I think so. Yeah. I don't think that you're. I mean, look, it could be a very good night for Democrats in, in November, whatever the date of the election is, but I think it's, I mean, they still have a long way to go. And I also think that what the dysfunction we're seeing within the Democratic Party, which remains real, could foreshadow, you know, a similar kind of shit show in 2028. Right. As we've seen in California.
Al Franken (Host/Main Speaker)
Well, we, we. I say we. You're a Democrat, I'm a Democrat. You're a journalist.
Mark Leibovich
I'm a journalist. I don't. Yep. I don't belong to any particular party whatsoever or organized party whatsoever.
Al Franken (Host/Main Speaker)
And so you're not rooting for anybody.
Mark Leibovich
Rooting against a lot of.
Al Franken (Host/Main Speaker)
Well, that's fair to say.
Mark Leibovich
Yeah.
Al Franken (Host/Main Speaker)
Should. Should Democrats run on immigration? That's a good question, huh?
Mark Leibovich
Yeah, I think it is. It's a good issue for them and it wasn't a couple of years ago. I know people, you know, they said they wanted the border secured and Trump, I guess, did that and he's gotten
Al Franken (Host/Main Speaker)
credit and I think Biden dropped the ball on that. I mean, I think there's no question about that.
Mark Leibovich
And talk to any border state senator, member of Congress, Democrat, and they will say that. And I think that that's true. But I think Trump, like, he's done with so things, it's just overreached. And I think these ICE incursions into
Al Franken (Host/Main Speaker)
communities and just, well, in Minneapolis, of course, especially where I'm from, is ICE and cbp. Just what they did was obscene.
Mark Leibovich
It was obscene. And it was politically a massive, I think, pushback from Democrats and certainly by Minnesotans. I mean, I think they, I mean, that has become a rallying point. And so, yeah, no, I mean, that is no longer a Republican issue. And I'm not convinced. Convinced. Even though they have this new bill and these new, you know, this new immigration sort of funding and stuff, I'm not convinced that Republicans won't just start overreaching again.
Al Franken (Host/Main Speaker)
I, I think Democrats should run on it, but they shouldn't run on, abolish ice. We should be talking about reforming ice.
Mark Leibovich
Yeah.
Al Franken (Host/Main Speaker)
In Texas, Paxton and the state legislature added supposedly five seats for Republicans. I don't, I don't know if it's, I hear it's not going to be all five. That it may be that because Latinos especially, but other, other people, young men and people have moved on, on immigration, I think.
Mark Leibovich
Yeah. And you know, the demographics that Trump apparently made big gains with in 2024 with Latinos and young voters seems to have turned pretty hard in the other direction against him. So, you know, that could certainly move the needle on a couple congressional racism, taxes.
Al Franken
We're going to take a quick break.
Al Franken (Host/Main Speaker)
We'll be right back with Mark Leibovich of the Atlantic.
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Al Franken (Host/Main Speaker)
And we are back with Mark Leibovich. If the Democrats win the majority, what should they investigate? Should they investigate the Trump family corruption?
Mark Leibovich
I think that wouldn't be bad. I mean, I think that that would be a good sort of place to center their things. I mean, I'm not sure it would be a great idea to impeachment immediately as many people are.
Al Franken (Host/Main Speaker)
I don't think so either. I think people don't care about because he won't get, you know, he won't get convicted. So I do it, I think we shouldn't, I think we Democrats should do hearings on corruption and on the family corruption and also his, his pals. But I, I, I don't think they should make as big a deal about it should be one of their things. But because there's so much other stuff to be doing. Hearings on.
Mark Leibovich
Yeah, impeachment, you know, kind of been there, done that. I don't think it has the same outrage value than it might have before.
Al Franken (Host/Main Speaker)
I think it'll be seen as a waste of time. And I think Democrats should be highlighting what they want to do in 2028. I, I, nothing they pass Right. In the House will become law.
Mark Leibovich
Correct.
Al Franken (Host/Main Speaker)
Senate. Even if it's, even if Democrats take the Senate.
Mark Leibovich
Yeah, there.
Al Franken (Host/Main Speaker)
And I don't think Democrats get rid of the filibuster. But even if they did and they pass something, then that gets vetoed and then that's, then it's dead.
Mark Leibovich
Yes, I think so. Yeah. I mean, I do think probably the biggest thing here, in my view, if, if the Senate goes Democrat, just the confirmations and certainly the judges, I mean, that would be huge. Yeah, huge. And you know, it can't be, you know, can't be overstated. So anyway, I, but I think I would, I'd be very sort of intentional about hearings that lend themselves to real unanswerable questions from people who look like idiots. And the Trump administration and the Trump family and Trump associates are pretty heavy with people who don't probably think on their feet all that well and who might not be very good in hearing settings when they're cornered and when they're under oath and, and so forth. So I think that's probably the best opportunity they would have if they win the House.
Al Franken (Host/Main Speaker)
So, I mean, so what should they be going after?
Mark Leibovich
I would say, you know, corruption, meaning just the self dealing thing, just the going out, going over, like trying to figure out where these funds are going. I mean, where, I mean, what are these people doing?
Al Franken (Host/Main Speaker)
Should we be having like, just hearings on, you know, these cuts to Medicaid? I mean, what they've done to people because they cut what, $900 billion over 10 years to Medicaid and this really, really hurts people. And about getting like losing the subsidies to just the ACA premiums.
Mark Leibovich
Yeah, I mean, sure, bring it on. I mean, not to mention that hospital closures in rural communities are big part of this. I mean, I think that material is rich. I mean, the problem is it's not like a lot of people would dismiss it as in the weeds a little bit just because Medicaid, Medicare are complicated issues. Sure. Budget issues. And not everyone is eager to tune into that.
Al Franken (Host/Main Speaker)
Right, okay, fair enough, Rich.
Mark Leibovich
But it's also, look, that is the home turf for Democrats. I mean health care, just affordability, just how to make your life functional at all. And yeah, so Democrats, if they win the House will have the opportunity to sort of put that issue front and center.
Al Franken (Host/Main Speaker)
Now, do you think maybe that Trump has been kind of lazy about working for Republicans so far is that he just thinks he can steal the election? Are you worried about.
Mark Leibovich
It seems to be very hard to steal an election. I mean it's not hard for Trump to accuse every election that goes the Democrats way of being something that is stolen. But yeah, I don't think that, I think he'll try, I think all kinds of mischief.
Al Franken (Host/Main Speaker)
He asked for the voter rolls of all the states and didn't get them and mainly got them in red states. But red states have purple districts. So he can, he can go, go, go in those purple districts and they can expunge people from the rolls.
Mark Leibovich
Right. No question. And also a lot of these purple districts are, they have Republican judges, they have Trump appointed judges, they have Republican governors. I mean, so Trump potentially could have some real partners in this, whether it's Greg Abbott or Ron DeSantis or, you know, very partisan governors in states that he's done well in and that has, have a lot of swing districts in them. So yeah, I mean, I do think as we've talked about, as we've talked about, I mean, Democrats seem to be prepared, they seem to be pretty well lawyered, but I don't think they know fully what they're dealing with. And I think you can assume that Trump will attempt anything he can, but they're not, I mean this is not exactly a well oiled machine. Meaning Trump's legal and sort of challenging election machine. I mean he has not been in, in, he's not been successful in the past about this.
Al Franken (Host/Main Speaker)
I think the Justice Department isn't there. Straight. I mean other than.
Mark Leibovich
You don't think.
Al Franken (Host/Main Speaker)
Yeah, let's talk about some of these races. I'm going to mainly focus on Senate races. So Democrats have to pick up four.
Mark Leibovich
Right?
Al Franken (Host/Main Speaker)
A net of four. Okay.
Mark Leibovich
Net of four.
Al Franken (Host/Main Speaker)
Yeah. Okay. So Michigan to me might be a tough one.
Mark Leibovich
Might be a tough one. Yeah. Michigan. So Michigan is now is controlled by Democrats.
Al Franken (Host/Main Speaker)
Peters is retiring though.
Mark Leibovich
Yeah. So he's retiring. He's a Democrat Pretty wide open race to succeed him. And the Democratic primary has three candidates. One of them, Haley Stevens, who's sort of a centrist.
Al Franken (Host/Main Speaker)
Schumer has endorsed her and she has endorsed Canada. She's supported by aipac.
Mark Leibovich
Very, very supported by aipac.
Al Franken (Host/Main Speaker)
And so how will. Now this has the largest Muslim population. It does in the country.
Mark Leibovich
In the country.
Al Franken (Host/Main Speaker)
And which brings us to Abdul El Sayed.
Mark Leibovich
Yeah, he is a very impressive, very smart, kind of Bernie kind of guy. He used to be public health commissioner.
Al Franken (Host/Main Speaker)
He actually was on this podc, and he was very impressive.
Mark Leibovich
Yeah, he's very smart. He was the health commissioner of Detroit for many years. He ran for governor in, I think in 2018 against Gretchen Whitmer. He lost in the primary, but, you know, made a pretty good show for himself. Has a real following in college towns like East Lansing and Ann Arbor. And, you know, Bernie's with him. I think AOC is with him. I mean, I mean, he has a lot of support from around there and obviously the Muslim community, I mean, they support him very much too.
Al Franken (Host/Main Speaker)
Okay, but will Michigan Sanders elect Abdul Al Sayed?
Mark Leibovich
I don't know, man.
Al Franken (Host/Main Speaker)
And will. Will the Muslims in, In.
Al Franken
In Michigan elect someone like Haley Stevens,
Al Franken (Host/Main Speaker)
who's backed by APAC? So that, that brings us to Mali McMorrow, who is, what is she, a state senator?
Mark Leibovich
Yeah, she's in the legislature now. She's very impressive. I think. I think she's kind of like the, the compromise candidate. I mean, she's kind of between Stevens and El Said. You know, she's, she had a few viral moments, speeches she gave in the legislature, has had some good ads. Doesn't seem to have really caught fire. I mean, the three of them are pretty bunched. And the problem there is one, the Republican, Mike Rogers is not, I mean, he's somewhat acceptable. He's not a Barely lost right. This barely lost last time. He is very, you know, he can very much play a mainstream Republican because that's what he was for many years in Congress. Pretty well known around the state. And it's not at all a sure thing that, that El Said supporters will, will vote for, you know, a non El Said nominee and vice versa. With Howie Stevens, you know, the divide between certainly the Israel, the, you know, people who are.
Al Franken (Host/Main Speaker)
That's why all my listeners should vote
Al Franken
for Mick Morrow, who are listening.
Mark Leibovich
You know, I really like, I, I've talked to all of them. I mean, I, I am very. Over the year, I mean, not recently, but I, I'm, I was impressed, McMorrow. I'm impressed with Elsa too. I mean, they're, they're good candidates. It's just, it's kind of hard to imagine them sort of coming together.
Al Franken (Host/Main Speaker)
Okay, so let's say we lose in Michigan. That would mean we need to pick up five.
Mark Leibovich
Correct.
Al Franken
Okay.
Al Franken (Host/Main Speaker)
Georgia.
Mark Leibovich
Yeah, it looks pretty safe. I mean, it looks safer than Michigan, I'll tell you that much.
Al Franken (Host/Main Speaker)
I mean, no, I think Ossoff is running a fucking great campaign.
Mark Leibovich
Very impressive. Yeah, he and I mean, the Republicans don't really have their act together down there.
Al Franken (Host/Main Speaker)
Ossoff has raised corruption. Peter, do we have that clip? The Ossoff clip.
Mark Leibovich
While you pay more for everything, the First Family's wealth is growing by billions
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of dollars because they're crooks.
Al Franken (Host/Main Speaker)
Yeah, he's going to win.
Mark Leibovich
Good. I mean he's, I mean he. Very few Democrats are able to sort of distill things that plainly I've felt. And he's, he's very compelling.
Al Franken (Host/Main Speaker)
Okay, let's give that to him.
Mark Leibovich
Yeah, no, I think so. I think he could win. I think he should win. I think he's safer. Democrats should feel better about Georgia than they do about Michigan.
Al Franken (Host/Main Speaker)
North Carolina, same thing, right?
Mark Leibovich
That's pretty.
Al Franken (Host/Main Speaker)
Governor Roy Cooper. Roy Cooper, two term governor.
Mark Leibovich
He's popular.
Al Franken
Yep.
Al Franken (Host/Main Speaker)
And I guess his opponent is well financed, but yeah, it's a pickup.
Mark Leibovich
It should be. I mean, Mike Watney, I think is his name, something like that. Yeah, he was a former RNC chair. Big, big Trump guy. And Cooper seems to be ahead pretty comfortably in the polls and North Carolina is pretty purple and, and Cooper's pretty popular, so that looks pretty safe too.
Al Franken (Host/Main Speaker)
Okay, now let's go to some that are, are kind of very up in the air. Alaska, that's hard. That's been a Republican state.
Mark Leibovich
Yep. That's up in the air and that's up in the, it's up in the, it's up in the wilderness, you know, weird state.
Al Franken (Host/Main Speaker)
Dan Sullivan is the senator from there. I've served with him and not much to report. Yeah, I wasn't on any committee with him to be fair, but I didn't really get to know him very well. But kind of
Mark Leibovich
just the Republican. He's kind of a Republican in Alaska, you know, can get you pretty far, I guess. It's a, it's a Republican state. But she, Mary is the congresswoman. Former congresswoman up there.
Al Franken (Host/Main Speaker)
It's because she's got. They only have one district right. In Alaska. So she won a statewide.
Mark Leibovich
She won a statewide. So. Yeah. And it's. Yeah. So she's pretty proven very good on, well, good in Alaska on the gun issue, which is that she's very.
Al Franken (Host/Main Speaker)
Yeah, okay.
Mark Leibovich
Pro hunting, pro outdoors, I mean, kind of thing.
Al Franken (Host/Main Speaker)
I think you'd have to be in Alaska.
Mark Leibovich
Yeah.
Al Franken (Host/Main Speaker)
Kind of go outdoors.
Mark Leibovich
Yeah, they have a lot of outdoors.
Al Franken (Host/Main Speaker)
They have a lot of that.
Mark Leibovich
Much of it is outdoors. She. I remember Sarah Palin, actually. I think, I don't know, it was during one of her last campaigns, during Paltola's last campaign was speak. Spoke well of her, I think, for whatever that's worth. So it's a small state. Obviously the political people know each other. But I was, I was sort of surprised that Sarah Palin said that she had positive feelings.
Al Franken (Host/Main Speaker)
Well, maybe, you know, that could happen. Sure could happen. It could happen. The big one, Texas, Tellarico and Paxton. This is, this is really ugly, right?
Mark Leibovich
Oh, it's going to get really ugly. I mean, it was certainly ugly between John Cornyn and Paxton. I mean, Paxton is much, presumably a much easier Republican for Democrats to beat just because he's been, you know, he's impeached. He's had all kinds of legal trouble and ethical trouble and, and, and Cornyn, you know, Cornyn obviously doesn't like him at all. And Cornyn has had a lot of support there, obviously among Republicans, though, maybe they're going to stay home. The thing is, Talarico, impressive guy, but not terribly well known across the state. And obviously Republicans are going to pour all kinds of money trying to, you know, define him in the least Texas
Al Franken (Host/Main Speaker)
kind of ways right now. What you're, you're, what are you hinting at?
Mark Leibovich
I mean, they seem to be hinting at the fact that he's like, he's like a vegan and he's like.
Al Franken (Host/Main Speaker)
And he isn't. He isn't a vegan. But they, they say that, like, I
Mark Leibovich
think seem to be implying. I mean, he's single, he's gay, I guess, but I think he's got some girlfriend or something too. I don't know. I don't know if that's gonna work. But look, I mean, Texas probably more than other states, you know, you kind of have to. There's like a real sort of currency to being of Texas, Right? Oh, that's a Texas type. And I'm not sure that James Talarico will clear that bar.
Al Franken (Host/Main Speaker)
But he is Texan. I mean, and he said some things that he's had to explain. He said that God is non binary.
Mark Leibovich
Yep. Yeah, he said that. He told me. I remember, I talked to him about a year ago. He said I was being deliberately provocative when I said that. This was years ago, which is fine. I mean, you know, I guess you could have, like a theological discussion about this. And, and, you know, he's a theologian. I mean, he, he's been to seminary. He talks about Jesus a lot. So he was very thoughtful and eloquent on this subject.
Al Franken (Host/Main Speaker)
I think he's very thoughtful and eloquent, and I think he's a great candidate. And right now it's tied. It's.
Mark Leibovich
It's tied.
Al Franken (Host/Main Speaker)
There's a lot to run against there.
Mark Leibovich
A lot to run against it.
Al Franken (Host/Main Speaker)
And Paxton came within one vote of
Al Franken
being convicted in, in the impeachment.
Mark Leibovich
Yep. No, he's. The guy's, he's, he's wide open. So. And obviously, you know, like you said, I mean, the Hispanic vote and very big in Texas. And if that turns against Trump the way some of these other indicators are, I mean, it could be really helpful to Talarico.
Al Franken (Host/Main Speaker)
Let's go to Ohio for some reason, I'm sure. Good. Sherrod Brown, like, is well ahead in polls.
Mark Leibovich
I've seen one who was up like 7, 8, something like that, which sounded high. I mean, it's Ohio, right. Pretty red. And so Houston, the lieutenant governor, John
Al Franken (Host/Main Speaker)
Husted, who was game senator. Yeah, yeah.
Mark Leibovich
After J.D. vance went into what went to the Trump administration, the governor, Mike DeWine, who's Republican, appointed Houston, who was his lieutenant governor, to take the seat. And Houston hasn't really done much. I mean, he's not terribly, you know, he hasn't really lit in the. He hasn't really captured a lot of imaginations, it seems, hasn't run a great race. And Brown, I mean, is kind of a unicorn Democrat who can actually get elected and has gotten elected in a state that's gotten pretty conservative.
Al Franken (Host/Main Speaker)
Yeah. He lost by three.
Mark Leibovich
Yeah. I think. Carried by maybe double digits.
Al Franken (Host/Main Speaker)
Yeah, double digits, I think.
Mark Leibovich
Yeah. So, yeah, I mean, Brown is, it's a great recruit. I mean, it's, he's, he's exactly. If you're a Democrat, I don't think
Al Franken (Host/Main Speaker)
it was a hard recruit.
Mark Leibovich
I mean, he's, he only lost a couple. He only lost, I guess, in 2024. So he lost to Bernie Moreno, like
Al Franken (Host/Main Speaker)
three points or something like that.
Mark Leibovich
And the guy, I mean, you know him, I mean, he's, he's pretty. I mean, the guy really likes being a senator. He's pretty nitty gritty, you know, gets
Al Franken (Host/Main Speaker)
into the weeds and fight for working folks.
Al Franken
Yeah.
Mark Leibovich
Yep.
Al Franken
Well, we're going to take a quick break.
Al Franken (Host/Main Speaker)
We'll be right back with Mark Liebovich.
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Al Franken (Host/Main Speaker)
Okay, so Iowa. This one is really interesting to me because I'm in Minnesota and Iowa used to be. I think Obama took Iowa twice, right?
Mark Leibovich
Twice. Yeah, maybe. I know he did in, he did in 08, I guess. Maybe he didn't know. In 12. I don't know. But Trump's early.
Al Franken
Take it from me. Take it from me.
Mark Leibovich
I'll take it from you.
Al Franken (Host/Main Speaker)
Okay, I, I looked this up.
Mark Leibovich
Oh, okay.
Al Franken (Host/Main Speaker)
I took the time to look, I'm not gonna. Okay.
Al Franken
And.
Al Franken (Host/Main Speaker)
But Democrats haven't won a Senate seat since Harken.
Mark Leibovich
It harkens back to the last time Tom won a race. See what I did there, Al? I made a hearken back.
Al Franken (Host/Main Speaker)
Oh, I see. That's terrible. Cut that out, Peter.
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Mark Leibovich
Didn't you used to be a comedian?
Al Franken (Host/Main Speaker)
I used to be. Okay, but you never were. Anyway, so this guy, Josh Turek, he wins in a race against a kind of a more liberal guy. And people in Iowa, I think, voted for Turk for a number of reasons. Turk has an interesting study, right?
Mark Leibovich
Yeah.
Al Franken (Host/Main Speaker)
He has spina bifida.
Mark Leibovich
Yeah. He's in a wheelchair. I think he's a Paralympic or something. Is that the word? Yeah.
Al Franken (Host/Main Speaker)
Well, I don't know if it's Paralympic, but he's won a couple gold medals.
Mark Leibovich
It sounds pretty good to me.
Al Franken (Host/Main Speaker)
In basketball.
Mark Leibovich
Yeah.
Al Franken (Host/Main Speaker)
And so he's cool guy. He evidently dragged his wheelchair up steps to go knock on people's door.
Mark Leibovich
And that's good, you know, I mean, look, I mean, he was a big recruit. I mean, the ds, whatever,
Al Franken (Host/Main Speaker)
the fcc.
Mark Leibovich
Yeah, yeah, they wanted him. He won. And I guess he's going against this woman, Henson, as congresswoman. An open seat. I mean, Jodi Ernest.
Al Franken (Host/Main Speaker)
And she, she ran a really terrible ad against him. I don't know if you know that.
Mark Leibovich
Oh, did she? I didn't see that already.
Al Franken (Host/Main Speaker)
Like, the next day, he, he, he voted. He's in the state legislature and he voted against a bill that required schools to notify parents if students requested a different pronoun. So they take an ad against him, but in the ad they make it look like he voted against telling Parents that their kids are getting a surgical sex change.
Mark Leibovich
Oh, that's a bit of a jump.
Al Franken (Host/Main Speaker)
That is a bit of a jump. They show the video of it is
Al Franken
surgery,
Al Franken (Host/Main Speaker)
an operating theater, and surgeons working on it on somebody. We don't know who they're working on. So that's pretty dark.
Mark Leibovich
Yeah. No, I mean, Iowa, look, I mean, Trump. Trump seems to be having some real problems in Iowa.
Al Franken (Host/Main Speaker)
I was.
Al Franken
Had. Had a very tough time, especially the farmers.
Al Franken (Host/Main Speaker)
They're hit by terrorists and of course,
Al Franken
by the war, the price of gas and diesel and fertilizer.
Mark Leibovich
They seem to be over Trump a little bit, but who knows? Right?
Al Franken (Host/Main Speaker)
Okay, let's.
Al Franken
Let's go to Maine and Graham Platner.
Al Franken (Host/Main Speaker)
Some.
Al Franken
There's some drama there.
Mark Leibovich
Yes. So Platner won the primary, which was not a surprise because his competition, incumbent Democratic Governor Janet Mills, had suspended her campaign a few weeks ago and was not campaigning.
Al Franken (Host/Main Speaker)
But when the new accusations came out, she said, I suspended it, but I'm
Al Franken
still on the ballot.
Mark Leibovich
But I'm still on the ballot. And she didn't endorse him, I don't think. Unless you did today.
Al Franken (Host/Main Speaker)
She should. She should soon.
Mark Leibovich
Yeah, she. I mean, it's sort of glaring that she hasn't.
Al Franken (Host/Main Speaker)
So what did you hear from this? Can we play something from the speech?
Mark Leibovich
Peter, you have lifted me up. You have had my back. This is the state that raised me, and this is the state that saved me.
Al Franken (Host/Main Speaker)
I thought it was a pretty powerful speech.
Mark Leibovich
He's a tout. He's a talented guy. I mean, he's a very talented politician. Obviously gotten a lot of attention. Yeah, but for better or worse. But no, look, I mean, this guy, it's interesting. I, I was talking to someone about this earlier. There's probably something to be said for being like the biggest topic of conversation in politics, probably across the country, other than maybe, I don't know, the Texas race, Talarico, Paxton. But I mean, this is just wall to wall. Graham Platner. And you know, Collins is like, oh, yeah, Collins, we know her. And you know, she's kind of. She's been durable. She's gotten. I mean, she's lost. She's beaten every flavor of Democrat over a few decades, right? Progressives, centrists, men, women, what have you. But Platner is very new and he's very. I think he's excited a lot of people up there, progressives certainly. And I wouldn't be surprised if he got some voters because I think he seems probably pretty familiar to them. Not. Not just because he's you know, has some real UNPC stuff in his record,
Al Franken (Host/Main Speaker)
to say the least.
Al Franken
Yeah.
Al Franken (Host/Main Speaker)
But it's going to be, it's going to be a close one. And unfortunately, she has pulled it out. I served with her and was not a big, big fan, of course.
Al Franken
And she.
Mark Leibovich
Yeah.
Al Franken (Host/Main Speaker)
You know, voted for Kavanaugh and assured us that he would not vote to undo Roe.
Mark Leibovich
Let me ask you this. What do you. What do you think could happen there? I mean, you know, Maine. I mean, you. You've spent time.
Al Franken (Host/Main Speaker)
Well, I, I've spent a lot of time Maine. My wife grew up there.
Mark Leibovich
Yeah.
Al Franken (Host/Main Speaker)
I. I don't know. I don't know. I think it's just going to be a very close race.
Mark Leibovich
Yeah. Yeah. I mean, you know, obviously Collins has, has got that stay wired. I mean, she knows the little towns and she knows the people pulling.
Al Franken
Nope.
Al Franken (Host/Main Speaker)
But going for a sixth term.
Mark Leibovich
Unbelievable.
Al Franken (Host/Main Speaker)
Okay. And then finally Minnesota, great state.
Al Franken
The greatest Lieutenant governor, Peggy Flaniken, who.
Al Franken (Host/Main Speaker)
Who worked for me.
Al Franken
She. She was my Indian Affairs.
Mark Leibovich
Oh, I didn't know that.
Al Franken (Host/Main Speaker)
Advisor.
Mark Leibovich
Yeah.
Al Franken
And she's my pick. Peggy won the Democratic farmer labor endorsement at the convention and she. She's got an opponent in the primary.
Mark Leibovich
Angie Craig is the.
Al Franken
Angie Craig is a congresswoman from a pretty purple district. She's more conservative than Peggy. She voted for Lake and Riley and
Al Franken (Host/Main Speaker)
she's running this primary.
Al Franken
She's got money from Crypto and aipac and AI. But Peggy's ahead in the polls and
Al Franken (Host/Main Speaker)
Democrats in Minnesota are.
Al Franken
Are pretty liberal and Peggy's gonna. Gonna win this.
Mark Leibovich
Who's the competition? Who's gonna be the Republican? Is it this Michelle Defoy? A person? Isn't that the sideline reporter?
Al Franken
Well, not. Not exactly. Tafoya didn't get the endorsement at the Republican State convention that, that went to
Al Franken (Host/Main Speaker)
a former Navy seal, Adam Swarzy, who's very anti abortion.
Al Franken
Tafoya is for allowing abortions in the first trimester.
Al Franken (Host/Main Speaker)
And she's got more money than.
Al Franken
Than he does.
Al Franken (Host/Main Speaker)
And she is very well known in the state because.
Al Franken
From her career.
Al Franken (Host/Main Speaker)
But this is going to go to Peggy.
Mark Leibovich
And she's pretty popular too, right? It seems like Flanagan.
Al Franken (Host/Main Speaker)
Yeah. And Flanagan is. She's a great legislator, which of course what the job is.
Al Franken
She.
Mark Leibovich
Go figure. It's actually what the job is.
Al Franken (Host/Main Speaker)
Yeah. I mean, she's done a lot of great things.
Al Franken
She did paid family leave. She did minimum wage index.
Al Franken (Host/Main Speaker)
This is going to be Peggy.
Mark Leibovich
Yep, totally.
Al Franken (Host/Main Speaker)
Well, I want to ask you one last thing. And then I get Tom Kane Jr.
Mark Leibovich
Where the hell is he?
Al Franken (Host/Main Speaker)
Here's a question he says has a health issue, but he'll be back. But what the hell could it be? And I hope it's nothing too serious,
Mark Leibovich
but sure, hopefully not. I mean, you would think that when you're not telling anyone, you're being so quiet about it, it's either some kind of, I don't know, something you would associate. Something you would expect there to be a stigma around, like, I don't know, drug addiction or some kind of cosmetic surgery gone awry. I mean, something that would be embarrassing to talk about, but who knows? It's mysterious as all hell.
Al Franken (Host/Main Speaker)
Well, I think. I think he loses that seat.
Mark Leibovich
I mean, otherwise, though, it could be he could open the door for congressional candidates to just disappear for months at a time and yet still be reelected, which is actually sort of what a lot of them do anyway.
Al Franken (Host/Main Speaker)
Okay, so let's get some closing thoughts from you.
Mark Leibovich
All right.
Al Franken (Host/Main Speaker)
Thank you for having.
Al Franken
No.
Al Franken (Host/Main Speaker)
Been on the show all these years. We've covered a lot of ground.
Mark Leibovich
Yeah, my closing thoughts are just that. I mean, I'm honored to be a friend of the Al Franken podcast and it's a great podcast and I'm glad to have been on a bunch of times. People always say, hey, I love listening to you on Al's podcast. So, look, I mean, I think this has been a great run. And look, politics isn't going anywhere. We can always. There will be plenty of stuff to talk about going forward, so we can always. We can put up emergency podcasts if anyone's out there waiting.
Al Franken (Host/Main Speaker)
Well, thank you, my friend.
Mark Leibovich
All right, guys, I'll talk to you guys. Talk to you down the road.
Al Franken (Host/Main Speaker)
Alrighty.
Al Franken
Well, I hope you enjoyed listening. That beautiful music is by Leo Kotke, the great Leo Kotke. I want to thank Peter Ogburn for producing this podcast. We'll talk again next week.
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Mark Leibovich
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Date: June 14, 2026
Guests: Mark Leibovich (The Atlantic)
Host: Al Franken
In this episode, Al Franken welcomes political journalist Mark Leibovich from The Atlantic to analyze the coming midterm elections. With five months to go, they dive into the current political landscape, notable Senate races, party strategy, and the ongoing influence of Donald Trump. The conversation combines sharp political analysis, witty banter, and storytelling, giving listeners a comprehensive yet entertaining take on American politics as the 2026 midterms approach.
[00:54 - 09:17]
[09:17 - 14:23]
[14:23 - 17:12]
[17:12 - 18:53]
[18:53 - 22:13]
[24:31 - 26:50]
[29:57 - 52:29]
Detailed discussion of pivotal Senate battlegrounds, with sharp, specific commentary on each:
On Trump’s Influence:
“He seems to be the biggest asset the Democrats have going for them…His numbers are way down.” – Mark [10:01]
Powwow Anecdote:
“I will dance if every one of you agrees not to make fun of me after I leave…they know I’m gonna have to dance alone…Then a five-year-old boy takes my hand and starts dancing with me. And then everyone joins in.” – Al [05:00-06:45]
“You dance like a white guy...the agreement was, we don’t make fun of you after you leave.” [After the dance]
On Political Dysfunction:
“How can you not be demoralized? …The President’s got to be really kind of enjoying what he does to these people that he fully owns.” – Mark [15:48]
On Corruption Fatigue:
“After a while, it becomes kind of like this bottleneck…you can’t expect anyone to keep straight all of this.” – Mark [17:48]
Democratic Overconfidence:
“I think this confidence can make them forget that they have dug a massive hole for themselves, certainly in the 2024 election.” – Mark [18:53]
On Impeachment Fatigue:
“Impeachment…been there, done that. I don’t think it has the same outrage value as before.” – Mark [25:25]
Senate Race Zingers:
“Much of [Alaska] is outdoors.” – Mark [35:52]
“You kind of have to. There’s like a real sort of currency to being ‘of Texas.’” – Mark [37:25]
| State | Key Dem Candidate | Key GOP Candidate | Panel Outlook | Timestamps | |--------------|------------------|---------------------------|---------------------------|--------------------| | Michigan | Stevens/El-Sayed/McMorrow | Mike Rogers | Toss-up; Dem Unity Needed | [30:09-33:20] | | Georgia | Jon Ossoff | Unspecified | Dem Favored | [33:23-34:16] | | North Carolina| Roy Cooper | Mike Watney | Dem Favored | [34:16-34:47] | | Alaska | Mary Peltola | Dan Sullivan | Toss-up | [34:47-35:56] | | Texas | James Talarico | Ken Paxton | Toss-up; Potentially Ugly | [36:18-38:52] | | Ohio | Sherrod Brown | John Husted | Dem Favored | [38:52-40:23] | | Iowa | Josh Turek | Ashley Hinson | Unclear, noting attack ads| [43:41-46:49] | | Maine | Graham Platner | Susan Collins | Very Close Race | [46:51-49:38] | | Minnesota | Peggy Flanagan | Angie Craig (primary) / Adam Swarzy / Michelle Tafoya | Dem Favored | [49:41-51:33] |
[52:29 - end]
For more, listen to the full episode on The Al Franken Podcast.