The Al Franken Podcast: Anne Applebaum & Frank Foer on Syria, The Middle East, and Ukraine

Release Date: December 15, 2024

In this compelling episode of The Al Franken Podcast, host Al Franken engages in an in-depth discussion with renowned authors Anne Applebaum and Frank Foer. Together, they explore the intricate dynamics of Syria, the broader Middle East, and the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. The conversation delves into the geopolitical shifts, the influence of autocratic regimes, and the potential impact of the incoming Trump administration on international relations.

1. The Collapse of the Assad Regime in Syria

Al Franken opens the discussion by highlighting the recent exodus of Syrian dictator Bashar Al Assad to Moscow, signaling a monumental shift in Syrian politics.

Frank Foer emphasizes the internal factors leading to Assad's downfall:

“The rebels who wound up taking first Aleppo and then eventually Damascus mostly won, not because they were winning battles, but because the regime stopped fighting.” [05:06]

He further illustrates how the regime's collapse was catalyzed by widespread public hatred and the exhaustion of the security forces:

“An army and a regime are part of the country. So everybody who was in the army or in the police or in the security services would have known people who were repressed... A certain moment when the rebels began to win, people who were in the security services would have said, right, this is enough.” [05:53]

2. The Role of Global Powers in Syria

Ethan Cross provides a comprehensive overview of the international players involved in the Syrian conflict:

“You had Iran making incredible investments in Assad... Russia trying to reassert itself in the region... The United States setting up its own base in Syria to combat ISIS... And then Turkey, the major sponsor of one rebel group...” [03:08]

This complex interplay of interests among Iran, Russia, the U.S., and Turkey underscores the multifaceted nature of the Syrian civil war.

3. Russia's Strategic Withdrawal and Its Implications

The conversation shifts to Russia's strategic decision to withdraw its troops from Syria, primarily to address its military commitments in Ukraine.

Frank Foer explains:

“The Russians were there in a burst of imperial exuberance... They went to Syria a decade ago... but they've been pulling weapons and equipment out because of Ukraine.” [07:32]

This withdrawal not only diminishes Russia's influence in Syria but also weakens its broader autocratic alliances.

4. The War in Ukraine and the Trump Administration's Potential Impact

A significant portion of the discussion centers on the ongoing war in Ukraine and the uncertainties surrounding the Trump administration's foreign policy approach.

Frank Foer critiques Trump's stance:

“The main issue is how is he proposing to stop the Russians? What is he doing towards that end?” [10:37]

He expresses skepticism about Trump's ability to formulate an effective strategy to influence the Russian aggression in Ukraine, highlighting the lack of concrete plans from the administration.

5. Shifts in the Middle East: Israel, Iran, and Hezbollah

The weakening of Hezbollah and Iran due to sustained Israeli military efforts marks a pivotal change in Middle Eastern geopolitics.

Ethan Cross notes:

“Hezbollah was the threat that concerned Israel the most... starting with the pagers, continuing through the assassinations, continuing through the decimation of their stockpile of missiles and rockets.” [20:28]

This reduction in Iranian proxies' capabilities strengthens Israel's security posture but also destabilizes Iran's regional influence.

6. Autocracy Inc. and the Erosion of Democratic Norms

Frank Foer ties these geopolitical developments to his book, Autocracy Inc., discussing how autocratic regimes benefit from the degradation of international institutions.

“Israel's disregard for civilians... is going to contribute to the sense of lawlessness.” [28:38]

He warns that ongoing conflicts and power struggles undermine global adherence to international law and democratic principles.

7. Russian Influence in European Politics

The discussion extends to Russia's persistent efforts to sway European elections and political landscapes, citing recent examples in Romania and Germany.

Frank Foer highlights:

“In Romania, it's one of the worst... Russian pressure and Russian influence games.” [34:26]

He underscores the orchestrated attempts by Russia to support pro-Russian candidates and disrupt democratic processes across Europe.

8. Trump's Affinity for Autocratic Leadership Styles

A critical examination of Trump's admiration for autocratic leaders like Putin and Xi Jinping reveals potential threats to democratic alliances such as NATO.

Frank Foer asserts:

“Trump clearly admires other leaders who don't have any constraints... He envied and admires the fact that they rule without any constraints.” [38:00]

This admiration may lead to policies that weaken essential international alliances and embolden authoritarian regimes.

9. The Future of NATO and U.S. Foreign Policy

The potential undermining of NATO's deterrent capability under Trump's leadership is a point of concern.

“What matters a lot more is not so much that he drops out, but that he doesn’t begin to say disparaging things about NATO or to imply that he wouldn't respect Article 5.” [40:31]

Frank Foer emphasizes the importance of maintaining NATO's unified stance to deter aggression from adversarial powers like Russia.

10. Conclusion: The Uncertain Road Ahead

As the episode concludes, Applebaum and Foer reflect on the precarious balance of global power and the critical role of leadership in navigating these tumultuous times.

Frank Foer warns:

“This is a blow to that [autocratic networks]. And although I can’t quantify for you exactly what it will mean, it certainly means that Putin looks a lot weaker.” [10:37]

However, the future remains uncertain, especially with the unpredictable nature of the incoming administration and its approach to international conflicts.

Notable Quotes:

• Frank Foer on the fall of Assad: “An army and a regime are part of the country... this is how dictatorships fall.” [05:53]

• Ethan Cross on Kurdish groups: “They're kind of inspired by feminism and by an American Jewish libertarian anarchists.” [04:18]

• Frank Foer on Trump's admiration for autocrats: “He envies and admires the fact that they rule without any constraints.” [38:00]

This episode provides listeners with a nuanced analysis of Middle Eastern conflicts, the fragility of autocratic alliances, and the potential ramifications of U.S. foreign policy shifts under President Trump. Applebaum and Foer's insights illuminate the complex web of geopolitical forces shaping our world today.