Anne Applebaum & Frank Foer on Syria, The Middle East, and Ukraine

Summary

The Al Franken Podcast: Anne Applebaum & Frank Foer on Syria, The Middle East, and Ukraine

Release Date: December 15, 2024

In this compelling episode of The Al Franken Podcast, host Al Franken engages in an in-depth discussion with renowned authors Anne Applebaum and Frank Foer. Together, they explore the intricate dynamics of Syria, the broader Middle East, and the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. The conversation delves into the geopolitical shifts, the influence of autocratic regimes, and the potential impact of the incoming Trump administration on international relations.

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1. The Collapse of the Assad Regime in Syria

Al Franken opens the discussion by highlighting the recent exodus of Syrian dictator Bashar Al Assad to Moscow, signaling a monumental shift in Syrian politics.

Frank Foer emphasizes the internal factors leading to Assad's downfall:

“The rebels who wound up taking first Aleppo and then eventually Damascus mostly won, not because they were winning battles, but because the regime stopped fighting.” [05:06]

He further illustrates how the regime's collapse was catalyzed by widespread public hatred and the exhaustion of the security forces:

“An army and a regime are part of the country. So everybody who was in the army or in the police or in the security services would have known people who were repressed... A certain moment when the rebels began to win, people who were in the security services would have said, right, this is enough.” [05:53]

2. The Role of Global Powers in Syria

Ethan Cross provides a comprehensive overview of the international players involved in the Syrian conflict:

“You had Iran making incredible investments in Assad... Russia trying to reassert itself in the region... The United States setting up its own base in Syria to combat ISIS... And then Turkey, the major sponsor of one rebel group...” [03:08]

This complex interplay of interests among Iran, Russia, the U.S., and Turkey underscores the multifaceted nature of the Syrian civil war.

3. Russia's Strategic Withdrawal and Its Implications

The conversation shifts to Russia's strategic decision to withdraw its troops from Syria, primarily to address its military commitments in Ukraine.

Frank Foer explains:

“The Russians were there in a burst of imperial exuberance... They went to Syria a decade ago... but they've been pulling weapons and equipment out because of Ukraine.” [07:32]

This withdrawal not only diminishes Russia's influence in Syria but also weakens its broader autocratic alliances.

4. The War in Ukraine and the Trump Administration's Potential Impact

A significant portion of the discussion centers on the ongoing war in Ukraine and the uncertainties surrounding the Trump administration's foreign policy approach.

Frank Foer critiques Trump's stance:

“The main issue is how is he proposing to stop the Russians? What is he doing towards that end?” [10:37]

He expresses skepticism about Trump's ability to formulate an effective strategy to influence the Russian aggression in Ukraine, highlighting the lack of concrete plans from the administration.

5. Shifts in the Middle East: Israel, Iran, and Hezbollah

The weakening of Hezbollah and Iran due to sustained Israeli military efforts marks a pivotal change in Middle Eastern geopolitics.

Ethan Cross notes:

“Hezbollah was the threat that concerned Israel the most... starting with the pagers, continuing through the assassinations, continuing through the decimation of their stockpile of missiles and rockets.” [20:28]

This reduction in Iranian proxies' capabilities strengthens Israel's security posture but also destabilizes Iran's regional influence.

6. Autocracy Inc. and the Erosion of Democratic Norms

Frank Foer ties these geopolitical developments to his book, Autocracy Inc., discussing how autocratic regimes benefit from the degradation of international institutions.

“Israel's disregard for civilians... is going to contribute to the sense of lawlessness.” [28:38]

He warns that ongoing conflicts and power struggles undermine global adherence to international law and democratic principles.

7. Russian Influence in European Politics

The discussion extends to Russia's persistent efforts to sway European elections and political landscapes, citing recent examples in Romania and Germany.

Frank Foer highlights:

“In Romania, it's one of the worst... Russian pressure and Russian influence games.” [34:26]

He underscores the orchestrated attempts by Russia to support pro-Russian candidates and disrupt democratic processes across Europe.

8. Trump's Affinity for Autocratic Leadership Styles

A critical examination of Trump's admiration for autocratic leaders like Putin and Xi Jinping reveals potential threats to democratic alliances such as NATO.

Frank Foer asserts:

“Trump clearly admires other leaders who don't have any constraints... He envied and admires the fact that they rule without any constraints.” [38:00]

This admiration may lead to policies that weaken essential international alliances and embolden authoritarian regimes.

9. The Future of NATO and U.S. Foreign Policy

The potential undermining of NATO's deterrent capability under Trump's leadership is a point of concern.

“What matters a lot more is not so much that he drops out, but that he doesn’t begin to say disparaging things about NATO or to imply that he wouldn't respect Article 5.” [40:31]

Frank Foer emphasizes the importance of maintaining NATO's unified stance to deter aggression from adversarial powers like Russia.

10. Conclusion: The Uncertain Road Ahead

As the episode concludes, Applebaum and Foer reflect on the precarious balance of global power and the critical role of leadership in navigating these tumultuous times.

Frank Foer warns:

“This is a blow to that [autocratic networks]. And although I can’t quantify for you exactly what it will mean, it certainly means that Putin looks a lot weaker.” [10:37]

However, the future remains uncertain, especially with the unpredictable nature of the incoming administration and its approach to international conflicts.

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Notable Quotes:

• Frank Foer on the fall of Assad: “An army and a regime are part of the country... this is how dictatorships fall.” [05:53]

• Ethan Cross on Kurdish groups: “They're kind of inspired by feminism and by an American Jewish libertarian anarchists.” [04:18]

• Frank Foer on Trump's admiration for autocrats: “He envies and admires the fact that they rule without any constraints.” [38:00]

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This episode provides listeners with a nuanced analysis of Middle Eastern conflicts, the fragility of autocratic alliances, and the potential ramifications of U.S. foreign policy shifts under President Trump. Applebaum and Foer's insights illuminate the complex web of geopolitical forces shaping our world today.

Transcript

[Al Franken]

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[Ann Applebaum]

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[Al Franken]

Hey everybody, we got a great one today. You know, for a change, I'm here in Damascus, Syria, where folks are celebrating. They're still celebrating the exit of their dictator Bashar Al Assad. Turns out he fled to Moscow, Russia, where he'll be living for probably quite a while. Anyway, we'll be talking to my guests Ann Appelbaum and Frank Foer of the Atlantic and who'll be doing a survey of the trouble spots in the world from here in Syria to Gaza and Israel to Ukraine and Russia. We got a great one today, you know, for a change.

[Ann Applebaum]

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[Frank Foer]

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[Ann Applebaum]

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[Ethan Cross]

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[Ann Applebaum]

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[Ethan Cross]

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[Ann Applebaum]

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[Al Franken]

Well, let's start, I guess, with Syria, because it affects everything. Anyway, who wants to take Syria? It's pretty simple.

[Ethan Cross]

Yeah, sure. So it's incredible that Assad began fighting a civil war against his own people 14 years ago, and Syria became the stage for the great powers to combat one another for the future of the Middle East. You had Iran, obviously, making incredible investments in Assad and using Syria not just as its own proxy and ally, but as a vessel for getting arms to Hezbollah, who was their most primary proxy in their war against Israel. And then you had Russia trying to reassert itself in the region and ended up setting up a base there. And the United States, of course, set up its own base in Syria in order to combat isis. And then you have Turkey, who was the major sponsor of one rebel group, and the rebel group that actually ended up sweeping Assad from a power as it was combating another rebel group in Syria that was aligned with the Kurds in the United States.

[Al Franken]

And just to be clear, the Turkey really is afraid of the Kurds because the Kurds are a very large and powerful group.

[Ethan Cross]

They're especially concerned with this one group of Kurds who have an autonomous region within Syria, who the United States has helped, who are actually more left wing. They're kind of inspired by feminism and by an American Jewish libertarian anarchists. So they're kind of an interesting group. And Turkey seems to hate them the most, even though they have decent relations with another Kurdish group in Iraq. So I don't think I've simplified matters at all in the course of my messy explanation of the messiness.

[Frank Foer]

Here's what I found really interesting. I found really interesting the fact that in the end, the rebels who wound up taking first Aleppo and then eventually Damascus mostly won, not because they were winning battles, but because the regime stopped fighting.

[Al Franken]

How did they know to stop fighting this time?

[Frank Foer]

So as I used this quote in the piece I wrote for the Atlantic, there's a famous Hemingway. It comes from a Hemingway novel, a description of how you go bankrupt. And the idea is first gradually and then suddenly. And this is a regime that has been hated by the public. It's vicious. I mean, the most striking thing in the last few days has been the scenes from these grotesque prisons that they've been releasing people from, these underground cement rooms and torture chambers and so on. It's a hated regime. It was impoverished people. It divided people. It created millions of refugees both inside the country and outside the country.

[Al Franken]

How many did he kill? How many deaths?

[Frank Foer]

I've seen a number of half a Million who died in the civil war. Which side killed? Which is hard to. Is hard to say, but half a million people is a lot. And I've also seen a number of 8 million refugees, which is a lot. But the point being that an army and a regime is part of the country. And so everybody who was in the army or in the police or in the office in the. In the security services would have known people who were repressed. I mean, it would be their cousin, or it would be their friend, or it would be someone they went to school with. They would have been aware of the scale of repression and of how much the regime was hated. And so at a certain moment when the rebels began to win, people who were in the security services would have said, right, this is enough. You know, the regime isn't going to save me. I don't want to be part of this hated thing anymore, and I'm going to quit. And this is what happens. This is how dictatorships fall. It's usually because the people who are defending it and protecting it just don't want to do it anymore.

[Al Franken]

So he and his family get on a plane right now.

[Frank Foer]

He's left behind the millions of people who work for him.

[Al Franken]

Okay, let's try to tie this. Part of this story is that Russia no longer was actually backing him there because they're worried about what's going on in Ukraine, their troops in Ukraine.

[Frank Foer]

This is a really important piece of the story. So the Russians were there, as Frank just described, in this kind of burst of imperial exuberance. They went to Syria a decade ago. Actually, for the last couple of years, they've been pulling weapons and equipment and.

[Al Franken]

People out of Syria because of Ukraine.

[Frank Foer]

Because of Ukraine and moving them to Ukraine. Remember, the Wagner mercenaries fought in Syria and that. That's where they began. In fact, they were eventually moved to Ukraine. And at the same time, of course, the Israelis have been successfully attacking and destroying the leadership of Hezbollah, and Hezbollah was, which is the Iranian proxy group who were active in Syria as well.

[Al Franken]

So part of this is that Hezbollah was weaker, Iran is weaker, Russia is withdrawing their troops. So it left this vacuum, and boom.

[Ethan Cross]

I think even the Iranians were kind of surprised by how. I don't think they began last week intending to abandon the Assad regime. I think that they were surprised by the suddenness of the collapse and that as they witnessed the suddenness of the collapse, their own support for Assad quickly evaporated. And of course, yes, they are vulnerable, beginning with the way in which their primary proxies in the region have been badly beaten down. And so they're concerned with protecting themselves because Israel has shattered their air defenses. And so they're, they're very much exposed at this moment. And, and on top of all of this, the other factor is the arrival of Donald Trump. And I mean, the fact is, is that he is somebody who's regarded as, you know. Right. Correctly as unpredictable. And so nobody really knows exactly how he's going to intervene or not intervene in the region.

[Al Franken]

And he put out a thing saying, we got to stay out of there. US should not be there, but we are there. Right?

[Ethan Cross]

Yes.

[Frank Foer]

Yeah. I'm not sure what that meant, if anything, but.

[Al Franken]

Well, yeah, because he was, he, he.

[Ethan Cross]

I think one of the ways in which he feels wounded over the, in his last is that he wanted to take out the American troops in Syria who were fighting isis, and he was persuaded not to do that last time. But Trump, Trump, in decisions where he reverses himself, tends to feel a little bit aggrieved. And so he's, I think, arguing with people within his old inner circle about that decision when he said, we're not going to do it this time.

[Al Franken]

So how does this relate to the war in Ukraine?

[Frank Foer]

I mean, in the short term, it's bad because it means that there will be more Russian equipment in Ukraine. They're going to move stuff to, I mean, I don't know how much stuff is still left there, but whatever is left, they can move it to.

[Ethan Cross]

Wait, wait, so you're convinced they're going to, they're going to, they are going to take, take away their bases?

[Frank Foer]

Apparently, some stuff is being taken away already. I don't know exactly whether the whole base will go, but there have been planes, you know, cargo planes have, have, have left. Whether it will be more, I don't know. I mean, we'll see. But I was going to say that in the, it's a, you know, that's almost immaterial because, of course, in the long term, it's a real blow both to Russia's image of itself and Putin's description of himself as someone who's restoring Russian greatness and the Russian empire. And it's a blow to the network of autocracies that I've written about and Al, I talked to you about on your program.

[Al Franken]

Yes.

[Frank Foer]

Who have been, who have been working together over the last, increasingly over the last decade to help keep one another in power. Because this was a Russian Iranian project. Syria.

[Al Franken]

That's your book. Autocracy Inc. That's right.

[Frank Foer]

But this is a blow to that. And although I can't quantify for you exactly what it will mean, it certainly means that Putin looks a lot weaker. And the image that he was creating of himself at home and around the world as a tough guy who was going to rebuild the Russian empire suddenly looks much more dubious. And that might have an effect on morale, on fighting, on the willingness of others to cooperate and collaborate with him. I mean, I think it does change his position now.

[Al Franken]

Right now he has, Putin has North Korean troops fighting for his side in Ukraine.

[Frank Foer]

He does. He has North Korean troops, he has North Korean ammunition. He has Iranian drones in large numbers that have been used to attack Ukrainian cities. He also, of course, has been trading with China. The Chinese are thought to be supplying parts and components that the Russians have used to rebuild their defense industry. So he, he still has all those, all those connections. This law suddenly weakens that alliance. It's not really an alliance, but that network.

[Al Franken]

Let's talk about Trump then. He says he's going to end that war in one day.

[Frank Foer]

He seems to have stopped saying that, actually never heard him say it since the election.

[Al Franken]

Someone will remind him, won't they?

[Frank Foer]

Maybe. So the difficulty with ending the war in Ukraine is not putting pressure on the Ukrainians. We could put pressure on the Ukrainians. I mean, within the bounds of their politics, I'm sure that they would be interested in stopping the war and they might be willing to give up some territory or leave it for a later time. There are a lot of solutions that could be found. That isn't the problem. And there's a kind of myth that you find on the far right and in the kind of right wing media space that, you know, Zelenskyy is so demanding. He's. It's actually the problem is not Zelensky. The problem is not the Ukrainians. The problem is the Russians. So how do you convince the Russians to stop fighting? What are you going to do to make them stop? And I have not yet heard Trump explain how he will do that. And I, I haven't heard an idea from him or from Vance or from General Kellogg, who he's just appointed as his envoy to Ukraine, his person responsible for the war. There was before the election, you heard some people in kind of Trump world, in the Republican world saying that the thing we need to do is actually increase military aid to Ukraine. Actually, Mike Pompeo was saying this. We need to increase military aid. We need to pump it up, we need to build it up.

[Al Franken]

We've been doing that, you know, biden is using his last days to supply them.

[Frank Foer]

Yep. I mean, the argument, I mean, I'm not saying it's necessarily related to reality, but you heard this argument coming from some people who purported to be around or near or close to Trump before the election. That, of course, runs directly contrary to what others have said. You know, J.D. vance has said clearly he wants to pull everything out and we can't afford it, and so on. Others, you know, around Trump have made different kinds of noises. So I still haven't heard what is the plan to make the Russians stop fighting? What are we going to do? And the danger, of course, is that we will, in exchange for some kind of temporary ceasefire, we will leave the Ukrainians undefended or ill prepared. We'll make some kind of promise about not arming. I mean, the Russians keep saying we want Ukrainians to be disarmed. The Russians also keep saying, and they've repeatedly said, that their goals have not changed. Their goal is to change the nature of the regime, as they would call it in Kiev, to put a pro Russian person in charge of Ukraine, to occupy eastern Ukraine, to have a Russian satrapy in the central Ukraine. And they've even talked about letting western Ukraine be divided up among other nations.

[Ethan Cross]

So the question is, I mean, it seems like Trump's conviction that the United States should not be entangled in the Ukrainian, should not be supplying Ukraine with arms, shouldn't be entangled in this war, seems pretty strong. So even if he's deluded about his ability to negotiate a peace, he's pretty clear about his, it seems to me, he's pretty clear about his ability to stop backing Ukraine. And so does that just leave Ukraine in a weakened and a weakened position where, where, where Putin is able to go full speed ahead in achieving his objectives?

[Frank Foer]

Maybe. I mean, the other thing, the only thing I know for certain that Trump has been saying to Europeans who he's been speaking to in the last, is he's been saying that he doesn't want there to be some kind of catastrophe in Ukraine because he's afraid it will look bad for him. So to be clear, he has no concern for the Ukrainians. He doesn't care about European security. It's not about that. It's about him looking bad and everybody he talks to. And I know of three or four conversations he's asked, how do we prevent that from happening? So he seems interested in that. I mean, my guess is that neither he nor anyone around him has really grappled with what any of this means. I Mean, what are the real circumstances on the ground? How much exactly are we helping the Ukrainians? How much are the Europeans helping them? What role are we really playing? And there will be a learning curve while they figure that out.

[Al Franken]

What I saw reported that was interesting to me is what kind of press conferences Trump is going to have. He evidently is going to control them in a way that I haven't seen before, that he's going to have Trump friendly reporters in the front row and basically be going to them. So he's not going to be answering what happened to the one day thing.

[Ethan Cross]

Yeah, but your take, Ann, doesn't actually sound as if the most pessimistic version of events will manifest itself, or at least there's some possibility that it won't manifest itself.

[Frank Foer]

I mean, you know, maybe it will. I mean, the pessimistic version is that Putin gets what he wants and he occupies Eastern Ukraine and he destroys the Ukrainian government and he gives Subcarpathian Ruthenia to the Hungarians, who will no doubt take it happily. So that's the pessimistic version. But it seems as if Trump himself is wary of what that would mean for him and for his reputation. Whether he's drawn any further conclusions from that and what therefore would have to be done in order to prevent that from happening, I don't know. There's just not enough information available.

[Ethan Cross]

Is there any scenario where. Where Putin sees Trump coming in and decides that this is a fine opportunity to get some sort of maximalist, negotiated end to the war for now, and he takes that and uses the time to rebuild his military and his economy?

[Frank Foer]

Well, that. I mean, that's what people are afraid of. I mean, that's. And that's exactly why any kind of ceasefire. The Ukrainians will say we have to have some kind of security guarantee or some kind of. I mean, they've talked about NATO membership. I don't think that's going to happen. But, you know, some. Whether or whether Western troop presence is now being discussed pretty, pretty openly. You know what. What? They're European, probably. So. So there would have to be something that gave the Ukrainians some reason to believe that if they stop fighting now, the war won't begin again, you know, in six months or a year.

[Al Franken]

Can the Ukrainians continue without our. If we completely pull our support, can the Europeans step up?

[Frank Foer]

It depends what completely pull out our support means, because there are a lot of things that we do for the Ukrainians that don't necessarily cost money or don't involve delivery of bullets. You know, there's, there's intelligence support. There's, you know, satellite information and data. There are other things that we do, and if we were to continue doing that, then, you know, those kinds of things, then it's possible that they could keep fighting.

[Al Franken]

And Trump would see it in his interest to do that, because a complete collapse on his watch is something he doesn't want to see.

[Frank Foer]

Yeah, the best case scenario is that Trump doesn't want a complete collapse. And he has said that. I mean, that's the only thing I know about his policies. He said that several times.

[Al Franken]

And. Okay, so how does this all affect Israel and the Middle East? It seems like Iran and Hezbollah are weakened. This all seems like it's been going kind of Netanyahu's way.

[Ethan Cross]

Yeah, he's testifying in his own criminal. His own criminal trial right now. But which you think would suggest some sort of political vulnerability or weakness on his part. But in fact, I think he's pretty much as strong as he's been since the beginning of the war that, you know, his strategy in Lebanon and with Iran actually worked, that Hezbollah was, was collapsed. Hezbollah was the threat that concerned Israel the most because they had the largest arsenal, and it was with. With the potential to do the most damage to central Israel, where the most populated parts of the country. And, you know, starting with the pagers, continuing through the assassinations, continuing through the decimation of their stockpile of missiles and rockets.

[Al Franken]

And this was part of what. How Syria happened. Right, the weakening of Hezbollah and the weakening of Iran.

[Ethan Cross]

Yeah, exactly. And that when Israel attacked Iran in October and destroyed its air defenses, Iran promised retaliation, and they haven't delivered on that retaliation. And all of this is just evidence of the fact that in terms of the GEO strategy and the threats posed to Israel from its neighbors, it seems like, for the most part, it's in a stronger position. We don't know what could evolve in Syria. Israel has been striking chemical weapons plants and other air bases and other sites, military sites in Syria to prevent the incoming government, whatever that incoming government is, from taking control of those. And they've also claimed a buffer in the Golan Heights, where they've claimed some high ground that they didn't possess before in order to protect themselves.

[Al Franken]

The Golan Heights are. Were part of Syria and have been taken over by. By Israel.

[Ethan Cross]

Exactly. In 1973. And so there's that. Then you've. You've got the ongoing war in Gaza, which. Oh, that Trump put out this kind of crazed, all caps message saying that there would be all hell to pay if this situation wasn't, if the hostages weren't released, if, if the war wasn't resolved by the time that he got in, which had the effect of applying some pressure. And so Hamas definitely has good reason to feel isolated. And there's, you know, in addition to being decimated in the course of the war, the primary benefactor was Iran, which they no longer, they no longer have. And so there's negotiations that are happening and the Israelis have been intimating that Hamas has been softening its position on, on certain issues. So for the first time in a very long time, since the murder of the six hostages in the tunnels in August, there's some sense that maybe, just maybe, there's a possibility for progress in the ceasefire hostage talks.

[Al Franken]

Let's go to Autocracy Inc. And what are these developments? Do they have relationship to these autocratic countries that are having some troubles, like Iran, like Russia?

[Frank Foer]

So Israel's war in Gaza and more broadly has never fit exactly into this paradigm. Netanyahu. Netanyahu. I mean, Israel remains a democracy. I mean, Netanyahu is clearly trying to use the war to break more of the rules and change more of the norms and stay in power, you know, and to, and to operate in Israel without checks and balances. I mean, this is the thing my Israeli friends are the most worried about now is that the, in particular, the victory over Hezbollah will give him the momentum he needs to stay in power. But it's also true that his attack on Hezbollah is weakened. Iran, I don't know. Hezbollah and Hamas were both Iranian proxies in different ways. Having them off the board suddenly gives Iran much less influence and power in the region.

[Al Franken]

Is there any chance that we see the Iranian regime in trouble?

[Frank Foer]

It's funny, I had an email exchange with some Iranian, you know, exiled Iranian friends of mine today, and we were joking about is the Syrian model, you know, going to be followed next by Iran? You know, there's no evidence for that right now. But the same principle that applied to Syria does apply to Iran, which is that, you know, as people who work for the regime begin to feel that it's weakened or that it's not achieving things that it said it was going to achieve, or that it might not be able to protect them or keep them paid and in power, then you might begin to see defections and then you would see, you could see something happening there. But, you know, as, as I'm talking to you right now, I don't have evidence of that. But of course, people are hoping that the blows to Hezbollah will have some kind of effect in Iran. But I, you know, I can't say that that's happening.

[Ethan Cross]

I think the other question as it relates to Iran is what Israel does next. It seems unlikely to me right now that, that Israel would, would launch a strike against Iranian nuclear sites or do something that, that did something to further destabilize the regime there. But it's also possible because Iran has never been weaker. If there ever was a moment for them to take advantage of Iranian, Iranian weakness and the incoming Trump presidency, now, now would be the time. I mean, there is evidence that Iran is increasing its uranium enrichment and sees this as a moment of vulnerability where it needs to, to take steps to get a nuclear weapon. I just don't know how that affects Israel's calculus. And then whatever Israel does, of course, has massive reverberations within Iran.

[Al Franken]

Of course, this is, these are calculuses that are very, very hard to make. And you see, the Defense Secretary, Hegseth would have to be very much involved in those kind of judgments.

[Ethan Cross]

I'm sure he'll make sober decisions.

[Al Franken]

Yes. And so what is. You're saying that Hamas is under pressure to make some kind of deal?

[Ethan Cross]

Well, they're pretty isolated right now. They don't have an Iranian partner. They don't have Hezbollah launching rockets in solidarity at Israel. And of course, their army has been destroyed in the course of however many months of fighting.

[Al Franken]

And their leader killed.

[Ethan Cross]

Yeah, yeah, their leadership has been killed.

[Al Franken]

So who is left? I mean, how. What does this mean for a deal?

[Ethan Cross]

So they. There's still political leadership that exists. Sinwar's brother is still alive. There's. There are leaders who are, negotiate, who are still in Qatar, who are negotiating with the Egyptians, the Qataris and the Americans and Israelis about what a deal would look like. And there's some sticking points, especially about what the remaining Israeli presence in the country would be over the course of a ceasefire deal and perhaps even longer, whether Israel would be able to keep some troops. The Philadelphia corridor, where the border, southern border with Egypt, and whether there would be troops within God.

[Al Franken]

Israeli troops or.

[Ethan Cross]

Yeah, that would, that would do counterterrorism.

[Al Franken]

I just, I wonder if Trump is going to take a more aggressive stance on, on that war.

[Ethan Cross]

It's totally possible that he. I mean, it seems like, as with Ukraine, his highest goal is to make it disappear. So it's not his problem. I don't think he especially wants to deal with any of this, unlike Biden and Blinken, who kind of maybe didn't relish the diplomacy. But they saw the diplomacy as their job and thought that the idea of negotiating these grand solutions themselves was what would, you know, the thing that might elevate them to Nobel Prizes or whatever. Trump right now just sees this as a mess that he'd like to avoid. That's why he's applying all this rhetorical pressure in the short term to get something done. And the Israelis, I think, actually in some sense, you know, both, you know, depending where they come from, either welcome or fear Trump as an actor here, that they, the hawks, I think, you know, welcome the extreme rhetoric. But they also, I think, have a sense that maybe Trump on day one, calls Netanyahu and says, just take whatever the deal is, get this done. Whereas Biden, for reasons of both solidarity and maybe weakness, has kind of let the war drag on and kind of let the process play out in this slow burn. I think, as with Ukraine, I don't know exactly where Trump is headed.

[Frank Foer]

I should also say that there's another effect that this war could have, the Middle Eastern war, the longer it goes on. One of the things that the autocratic powers have benefited from and have sought to increase is the denigration of international institutions, of international law, of any role for the United Nations. You know, I'm, I'm afraid that Israel, through its, you know, at least, at the very least, disregard for civilians, the amount of people who just way too many people have died is going to contribute to the sense of lawlessness. I mean, I know as many Israelis feel that as well, both in the Middle east and maybe further. Maybe further afield.

[Al Franken]

Wow, that. That's scary. We're going to take a quick break. We'll be right back with Frank Foer and Ann Applebaum.

[Ann Applebaum]

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[Al Franken]

Okay, so Russia weakened. Iran weakened. Hezbollah weakened. Is there a real paradigm shift that could happen because of biological, that it.

[Ethan Cross]

Feels like a lot's up for grabs? No, I mean, especially that you have these, these powers that made huge plays to turn themselves into superpowers or mini superpowers. And, and that's, they've flailed in their attempts at doing that. And that makes them both dangerous because they're flailing. But it also presents certain opportunities. You have the rise of maybe Turkey as a regional power, and then you have questions about American leadership that the Trump administration poses.

[Al Franken]

Well, doesn't the Trump administration, I mean, isn't it kind of famously saying, we're just for America and we're just going to stay here? We're not going to be involved in as much as what we've been saying.

[Frank Foer]

That's certainly a part. Some of the people around Trump are saying that very, very clearly we just don't want any involvement at all.

[Al Franken]

And the Vice President particularly is, you.

[Frank Foer]

Know, we're coming home. You know, we're withdrawing. And of course, that also brings potential dangers because that then creates vacuums, creates the possibility for whatever, whatever temporary losses the Russians have suffered to regain them. I mean, I would draw your attention to another little set of foreign policy issues in another part of the world just in the last few weeks. But even going back to the summer, you know, you can see that the, the Russian attempt to change the political calculus and to intervene in politics in Eastern Europe, but also in, in the rest of Europe has not gone away. So right now, as we speak, there are these massive demonstrations on the streets in Georgia there where they, they had an election that was, you know, just unbelievably sloppy and, you know, at least in part stolen by the ruling party, which has Russian backing. You know, in Moldova, there was a referendum some weeks ago where there were, there were pro Russian forces who were actually paying people cash to vote against Moldova joining the European Union. That was, you know, it wasn't even very subtle, that one. I mean, some, sometimes they're, you know, there's a more subtle Version in Romania, which is that a complete dark horse candidate who participated in no political debates and was not visible at all in public came first in the first round of a Romanian presidential election after running a million dollar or more campaign on TikTok that was funded by outsiders, which is legal in Romanian electoral law. He's a kind of health guru who believes that carbonated water contains nanochips.

[Al Franken]

I think Bobby Kennedy Jr. Believes that too.

[Frank Foer]

He's very keen on Bobby Kennedy Kennedy Jr. And they're very, very great admirer. I think he wrote an introduction to his book in Romanian or reviewed his book in Romanian. And then at the same time, he's very pro Russian and he and his wife, who's some kind of spiritual guru, you know, talk about peace and how we mustn't fight anymore and Romania shouldn't play any role in this war anyway. He unexpectedly won, I think it was 22% in the first round, which made him. Gave him the right to the second round. But because of the violation of electoral law represented by this illegal spending, the Romanian court has just annulled the election, which has caused, as you can imagine.

[Al Franken]

Wow.

[Frank Foer]

In. In Romania, it's one of the worst. It's probably, well, not one of the worst. The worst political crisis they've had since 1989. And that's also, you know, this Russian pressure and Russian influence games. And, you know, Russian money is still, still prevalent all over Europe. There's a German election in a couple of months where I'm sure there will be Russian money and Russian influence at play.

[Al Franken]

And that is Russian propaganda.

[Frank Foer]

It's propaganda. It's having friends who. And allies inside the German political system who repeat and push that same kind of language. In Germany, there have been a few people where there have been a few cases where, you know, money has clearly been exchanged and they're, you know. But there's now inside German politics in both of. There's a kind of far left version and a far right version. They're now clearly pro Russian voices. I mean, they're a minority. You know, they won't win, but they're there and they weren't there before. I want to be more nuanced about it. It's not that the Russians have, you know, taken in some innocent Germans. It's a group effort.

[Ethan Cross]

I mean, there's no eye in autocracy, Al. It's a team sport.

[Frank Foer]

Exactly. And, you know, and so they were doing it already, and the Russian contribution was just to pay them a lot of money.

[Al Franken]

I mean, there's been theories for as long as Trump has been in this stuff that he has some special ties to Putin and Tulsi Gabbard certainly does. An odd choice for head of dni. To what extent is that possible as playing a part in what happens in Ukraine and what happens just generally?

[Frank Foer]

Well, we don't know. I mean, the Russian intervention in the 2016 election is not in doubt. We know that it happened.

[Al Franken]

Right.

[Frank Foer]

It was demonstrated by Mueller. It was. There was then a Senate Intelligence Committee report that, that also showed that. So we know that it happened. So it's not as if that's.

[Al Franken]

Except according to Barr, it didn't. I mean, you know, no bar.

[Frank Foer]

So what Barr, what Barr sought to undermine was any were the hints. I mean, certainly, you know, there isn't, you know, in my mind, there's no doubt that the Trump campaign was aware of and interested in encouraging this Russian role.

[Al Franken]

Well, they met with that.

[Frank Foer]

Barr was trying to do was show that there was no legal. He was trying to undermine the idea that there was some legal problem or there was some so called collusion, which was always a terrible word to use. The goal of Barr and others was to make, make sure that Trump was not legally somehow responsible for this. But it's not really anybody who looks at the evidence rationally cannot doubt that it happened.

[Ethan Cross]

The other thing is, is that it was the way in which, that they have an affinity for one another and the way in which they both practice corrupt politics meant that they were inevitably going to fall into one another's circles. And the damning evidence that in the 2016 campaign, Trump was trying to build Trump Tower Moscow at the same time he was making all of these, he was praising Putin.

[Al Franken]

It's almost as if he wasn't counting on winning in 16.

[Ethan Cross]

Yes, but it's. We also know that that Trump's, the ambitions for his businesses, the ways in which his sons are involved in extending those businesses continue apace. And that when he looks at Putin, he sees somebody like minded and when Putin looks at him, he sees somebody who's going to be exploited. You don't need to go to the point of the grandest conspiracy to see how that's a dangerous intersection.

[Frank Foer]

Yeah. It's also true that Trump clearly admires other leaders who don't have the kinds of checks and balances that we have in our system. I mean, when Trump complains about courts or about, you know, journalists, and when he talks about his admiration for Xi Jinping, which he's done several times, or Putin or, or, you know, or the leader of North Korea. I mean, it's clear that he, he envies and admires the fact that they rule without any constraints. Right. And because in our political system, we don't allow leaders to have absolute power. And that bugged him the first time he was president. And he repeatedly said so. I mean, this famous quote that came out during this year's campaign, you know, John Kelly talking about who talked about how Trump said he admired Hitler's generals, which was a very weird thing to say on many levels, partly because Hitler's generals tried to kill him, you know, several times.

[Al Franken]

Right.

[Frank Foer]

It's clear that what he meant was, is that what he wanted was generals who would just do what he told that, you know, if I want you to go and shoot people out on the street, and they would do it. And that's kind of, that's his idea of what real power is. And he sees that in other countries, some people have that kind of real power, and he admires it. And this is where this sense that he, you know, admires or wants to be part of that world comes from. I mean, you know, we still do have a constitution and we do have constraints on the president. So, you know, he's, you know, I don't believe he's going to become, you know, the North Korean dictator overnight, but he, that's, that's his tendency. I mean, this is not me interpreting him. I mean, this is what he says, you know, this is why he admires them, and this is the way he would like to be president. And, you know, even, even more recently saying that he wanted his nominations to the cabinet confirmed by recess.

[Al Franken]

Right. Recess appointments.

[Frank Foer]

He doesn't want the Senate to look at his nomin. I mean, that's just saying I don't want there to be any constraints. And so in that sense, he has this affinity for the autocratic world. He likes and admires them. And this is what I've been saying to Europeans is don't expect him to be the leader of the democratic world in the way that American presidents have tried to be in the past. I mean, it doesn't necessarily mean he'll do a pact with Putin. It doesn't necessarily, because there are other things in play.

[Al Franken]

Will he drop out of NATO, for example?

[Frank Foer]

You know, in the case of NATO, what matters a lot more is not so much that he drops out, but that he doesn't begin to say disparaging things about NATO or to imply that he wouldn't, you know, he wouldn't respect Article 5.

[Al Franken]

You know, Article 5 is that NATO members will come to the aid of any NATO country attacked.

[Frank Foer]

Right. So, I mean, you know, it's hard for me to imagine that there would be any political use for him saying, I'm leaving NATO. Although, by the way, he did try to do that the first time he was president. You know, he was sitting in a car with John Bolton, and they were on the way to a meeting, and he said to Bolton, let's make history today. Let's leave NATO. So he's thought about that before. But the real concern isn't just that. I mean, NATO is a. What is NATO? NATO is a defensive alliance, and its power comes from its ability to deter. Why doesn't Putin attack Lithuania? It's because NATO serves as a deterrent. Why is NATO a deterrent? Because people assume that the power of the US and its army and its nuclear weapons are behind it. What is worrying about Trump and what's the important thing to watch is does he begin to say or do things that undermine the value of the deterrent? So even without making some big announcement or creating some kind of political event, he could. He could begin to do damage to that expectation, which, in fact, as you.

[Ethan Cross]

Say, he did in his last time as president. And it just. This time, he's stepping into a world that is infinitely more unsettled, where whatever global structures that, that imposed constraints on adventurous autocratic regimes have eroded over time and, and into this chaos. There, there's lots that can be exploited if you don't believe that there is any sort of real deterrent.

[Al Franken]

Did he invoke Article 5? Wasn't there some speech he was going to give that he wanted to take it out?

[Frank Foer]

At the beginning? He made some speeches that were ambiguous. I mean, the NATO treaty is very short. It's not like a long treaty. And the main point of it is, I mean, it's a little more ambiguous than people realize. But the main point is that the nations say they will come to the defense of one another, that it's a defensive alliance. And so without Article 5, it's a bit meaningless.

[Al Franken]

Okay, well, we'll see what he does with Ukraine, I think, pretty soon after he's in office. Right. What are you looking for in terms of what signals will we get from the inaugural? What should we be looking for when he's first in to see what he's going to be doing with Ukraine and with NATO?

[Frank Foer]

Has he proposed a peace plan? Is there going to be a peace conference? Who's going to it? You know, the main issue, as I Said is not, can we persuade the Ukrainians to negotiate? Because we can and they will if we want them to. The main issue is how is he proposing to stop the Russians? What is he, you know, what is he doing towards that end? And then what is he doing, you know, to ensure that Ukraine is, whatever happens, that Ukraine remains safe and can remain a sovereign country? And if he's, you know, what he does in those two questions is what matters. And it's hard for me to tell what will happen because I don't know whether he's going to be leading that policy, whether General Kellogg will be leading that policy, whether Rubio will be doing it, whether Hesketh will be doing it.

[Al Franken]

The image that he puts out is that he will sit down with Zelensky and Putin.

[Frank Foer]

And will Putin want to come? We don't know that yet. Putin has not said he would come to a negotiation yet. And if there were a negotiation, what would be on the table?

[Al Franken]

It's a sketch. At least it's an SNL sketch. You know, that'll happen.

[Ethan Cross]

Al, who are you going to play in that sketch?

[Al Franken]

Kissinger is dead, so I can't do him. So unfortunately, he won't be part of that.

[Ethan Cross]

I think maybe you play Zelensky as a, a comedian, politician.

[Al Franken]

That's true. He was the bravest people in the world are comedians and Jews. So I'm the second most powerful man in the world right now. But okay, guys, how much will we know right away on January 20th? How much are we going to know about it? Depends what he puts in that speech.

[Ethan Cross]

It's just he was pretty lucky in the world that he had to, to lead, manage when entering his first presidency, there weren't, there weren't conflicts on this scale.

[Al Franken]

Well, that's because he was president and everyone knew that he would respond if they broke international norms. And that, that's, that's what having a very strong leader like Donald Trump gives.

[Ethan Cross]

You know, it's like you, you have, you have a, you have a, you have tectonic shifts in the world that happen for reasons or that have they, you know, okay, sarcasm alert. You know, and so I just think, I think he's going to be. His, his erraticism, his, his true stripes, I think will matter a lot more this time around. You know, he's out of his depth on a lot of things. He. So I think it's pretty hard to know where he's going to go on a lot of these issues because it's one thing to put out all caps tweets on truth Social. And then it's another to actually have to deal with them.

[Al Franken]

Yeah, and this speech won't. The foreign policy won't be the American carnage.

[Frank Foer]

No, I, I also don't think foreign policy is. The other thing I've gathered is it's not his policy. I mean, when he talks to people about Ukraine, it's, you know, as Frank just said, I mean, it's, it's more like, how do I get rid of this problem? You know, he's not interested in it. I mean, he's, he's interested in taking revenge against his enemies. You know, he's, he's interested in, in having, you know, good publicity and feed, you know, feeding his ego. Maybe he has some financial interests, you.

[Al Franken]

Know, but I, I think there's that. Yes, yes.

[Frank Foer]

And I mean, and that, I mean, that's for another time, but I mean, I think that's the thing to watch with this administration more than any other, is this, this kind of rise of a new oligarchy. But, but, but I, but I don't think these things interest him. And I don't think he has, you know, expecting him to have a plan is, Is. Is mistaken. I don't think he has a plan. Maybe somebody else around him will have a plan, but we don't know who those people are yet. Exactly.

[Al Franken]

Well, let's keep an eye on the oligarchy that we will be seeing. Thank you, guys.

[Ethan Cross]

Thanks, Al.

[Frank Foer]

Thank you.

[Al Franken]

Well, I hope you enjoyed listening. That beautiful music is by Leo Kotke, the great Leo Kotke. I want to thank Peter Ogburn for producing this podcast. We'll talk again next week.

[Ann Applebaum]

If you like the Al Franken podcast, you can listen to all episodes ad free right now by joining Wondery in the Wondery app or on Apple Podcasts. Prime members can listen ad free on Amazon Music. Before you go, tell us about yourself by filling out a short [e-mail] survey.

[Al Franken]

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[Frank Foer]

Two trees and fell into the best.

[Al Franken]

Sleep of his life. You were made to be rechargeable. We were made to package flights and hotels and hammocks for less. Expedia made to travel.

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