WaPo's Aaron Blake on The Transition

Summary

The Al Franken Podcast: WaPo's Aaron Blake on The Transition
Hosted by ASF Productions | Released on December 8, 2024

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Introduction

In this engaging episode of The Al Franken Podcast, host Al Franken welcomes back Aaron Blake from The Washington Post for a deep dive into the current political landscape, particularly focusing on the transition period following President Elect Donald Trump's victory. Their conversation navigates through the complexities of Trump's administration nominations, the dynamics within the Republican Party, and the broader implications for American politics.

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Trump's Nomination Process and Senate Confirmations

Al Franken initiates the discussion by highlighting the contentious process surrounding President Elect Trump's cabinet nominations. He emphasizes the significance of thorough FBI background checks, a concession Trump has recently made, ensuring that nominees undergo rigorous scrutiny. Al draws parallels to historical instances, such as the rejection of John Tower, George H.W. Bush's first cabinet nominee, underscoring the Senate's pivotal role in the confirmation process.

Notable Quote:

"Some of these people, and they're out for retribution. But if you pay attention, you'll figure it out soon enough."
— Al Franken [06:57]

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Polling on Mass Deportations and Public Sentiment

A substantial portion of the conversation delves into the public's stance on Trump's agenda, specifically mass deportations. Aaron Blake references polling data, noting a significant discrepancy between general approval of mass deportations and the public's true preferences regarding who should be deported.

Notable Quote:

"In theory, people like mass deportation, but when you start digging into the kinds of people who would be deported, it's very different."
— Unnamed Guest [07:27]

This revelation indicates that while a majority may endorse stringent immigration policies superficially, deeper inquiry reveals a preference for deporting only recent immigrants or those with criminal backgrounds, not long-term residents contributing to their communities.

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Republican Majority and Internal Party Dynamics

Al and Aaron examine the Republican majority in Congress, highlighting its slim margin of 220 seats to the Democrats' 215. This razor-thin majority poses challenges for advancing Trump's agenda, especially with upcoming confirmations and the potential for defections within the party.

Notable Quote:

"Three quarters of Americans and a majority of Republicans in Congress want Congress to push back on Trump when they disagree."
— Unnamed Guest [16:42]

Aaron Blake points out that despite Trump’s influence, a significant portion of Republican lawmakers prefer maintaining checks and balances, suggesting potential resistance to some of Trump's more controversial appointments and policies.

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Controversial Nominees and Senate Reactions

The discussion intensifies as they scrutinize specific nominees like Cash Patel for the FBI head position. Concerns about Patel's lack of prosecutorial experience and his rhetoric advocating for retribution against perceived political enemies raise questions about his suitability for the role.

Notable Quote:

"There is a concern that Kash Patel just doesn't have the right kind of experience."
— Unnamed Guest [23:13]

Additionally, the conversation touches upon other nominees who have made troubling statements, indicating a possible trend towards appointing individuals with aggressive stances against the "deep state," potentially undermining the integrity of federal institutions.

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The Pardon Power and Its Implications

A significant segment addresses the controversial use of presidential pardon power. Al Franken discusses President Biden's reversal on pardoning his son, highlighting the political implications and the broader debate on executive clemency.

Notable Quote:

"It's reminiscent of Nixon's pardon in its language, but it's for a longer period of time."
— Unnamed Guest [32:43]

The conversation underscores the unprecedented nature of such broad pardons, drawing historical comparisons and debating the potential fallout from these actions.

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Election Margins and Future Political Landscape

Aaron Blake analyzes the narrow margin of Trump's popular vote loss, emphasizing its implications for future elections and the political strategies of both parties. The discussion speculates on the possibility of a Republican female president in future elections, considering the current dynamics within the party.

Notable Quote:

"I think the first female president of this country will probably be a Republican at this point."
— Unnamed Guest [36:49]

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Closing Thoughts

As the episode concludes, Al Franken and Aaron Blake reflect on the tumultuous political environment, emphasizing the importance of vigilance and accountability within both major parties. They acknowledge the challenges ahead, particularly regarding the confirmation of Trump's nominees and the overarching influence of his administration on American governance.

Notable Quote:

"A lot of these members have reelection campaigns to worry about and may disagree with Trump on policy."
— Unnamed Guest [17:25]

Overall, the episode provides a comprehensive examination of the intricate interplay between presidential ambitions, party loyalty, and public sentiment, offering listeners a nuanced perspective on the evolving political transition.

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Key Takeaways:

• Thorough Vetting Required: Trump's recent agreement to FBI background checks on nominees is a critical shift, though concerns about the depth and sincerity of these checks remain.

• Public Opinion Nuances: While mass deportation garners theoretical support, nuanced polling reveals selective preferences among the public.

• Republican Party's Fragility: The slim Republican majority in Congress introduces significant hurdles for advancing Trump's agenda, with internal divisions potentially impeding consensus.

• Controversial Appointments: Nominees like Cash Patel raise alarms regarding their qualifications and intentions, threatening the integrity of key federal institutions.

• Pardon Power Controversy: President Biden's broad pardon of his son sparks debate over the limits and political ramifications of executive clemency.

• Future Political Prospects: The narrow election margins and internal party dynamics suggest a complex and unpredictable political landscape ahead.

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This summary encapsulates the critical discussions and insights from the episode, providing a coherent narrative for those who haven't tuned in.

Transcript

[Al Franken]

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[Aaron Blake]

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[Al Franken]

Hey everybody, we got a great one today, you know, for a change. And you know it's great because Washington Post writer Aaron Blake is returning for his second appearance now on the podcast, not appearing visually, but through this audio medium, which in many ways is more powerful than a merely visual presentation without the audio, which would be just ridiculous for a podcast. A mime podcast, I suppose, say that's an idea, you know, for YouTube. Aaron and I discuss a number of issues that are currently before the Senate, specifically the confirmation of President Elect Trump's nominees for his administration. Trump has now agreed to allow the FBI to do thorough background checks on his nominees because you never know if a nominee has been accused of womanizing an alcohol abuse like John Tower, the late Texas senator who was the first cabinet nominee of new president. In this case it was George H.W. bush to be rejected by the Senate. Now I'm recording this on Thursday afternoon to be dropped on Sunday because I'm going to Washington, D.C. to take part in the Kennedy Center Honors. My friends, the Grateful Dead are among the honorees this year and I will be speaking on their behalf at a dinner the night before. I'll start by quoting the late Jerry Garcia, the Dead's iconic lead guitarist, who said our audience is like people who like licorice. Not everybody likes licorice, but people who like licorice really like licorice. And I really like licorice. Anyway, it's my honor to do that. I don't know if you've been paying much attention to the news of late. Some of my friends have taken a break from the news since the election and I don't blame them, but we can't here on The Al Franken podcast. Take a break. And I will say it's taken a toll on my mental health. There are some truly terrible people who are going to be in this administration. We have to get used to that idea. Some of whom don't have to be confirmed. I don't want to name them because I'm afraid of them. They're pretty vicious, some of these people, and they're out for retribution. But if you pay attention, you'll figure it out soon enough. Here's a hint. He doesn't have to be confirmed and was sort of the brains behind the child separation stuff. Kind of the cruelty is the point guy. What else is happening? My Minnesota Vikings are 10 and 2. We Vikings fans love our Vikings but get nervous if they fly too close to the sun. We've never won a Super bowl despite being the NFC champion four times. And we get very excited and also very nervous when they look like a contender because every time it's just heartbreaking. They've lost four Super Bowls and a couple of NFC title games where we were clobbered. Okay, I'm sorry. I'm trying to keep from focusing on what's happening in Washington, D.C. now they have the White House, the Senate and the House and they're going for retribution. Is going to be ugly. Oh, I was talking about Stephen Miller and on second thought, I think he's proud of being evil and he doesn't care about me. Right. Okay, good. Okay. Okay. Let's get to my conversation with Aaron Blake, a Minnesota boy, by the way, who I sense is nervous about the Vikings as well. But the stakes aren't that high. You lose the super bowl, there's always next year. We have to deal with the Trump administration for four more years. But wouldn't it be funny if we win the midterms in the House and they impeach him again? I mean, for something real like the last two. Remember, he tried to shake down Zelensky to get some dirt on Biden and then there was a January 6th insurrection. Well, a fellow can dream, can he? Right? Anyway, we got a great one today. Finally, Aaron Blake from the Washington Post.

[Aaron Blake]

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[Al Franken]

I want to start by going over this polling that you looked at. You did a column on that, on the many contradictions on Trump's agenda. Basically you did mass deportation and a majority of Americans when just asked are you for the mass deportations of undocumented immigrants? It was 5343 who did this poll.

[Unnamed Guest]

There's a few different polls, but the Pew Research center and some others have done some real good, detailed work kind of digging into what people actually think about this, which isn't kind of, as you noted, it's not really the same as the top line numbers. People like the idea of mass deportation in theory. But then when you start digging into the kinds of people who would be deported, like people really only want the criminals deported and they only want recent immigrants deported. They don't want the people that they.

[Al Franken]

Know who've been there for 20 years.

[Unnamed Guest]

Clean their house or in their neighborhood. Yeah, it's a totally different thing. And so the reason that I wrote that post is I think there's a big question on some of these big agenda items for Trump about how much while they might have helped him in the election and people kind of notionally like these ideas, how they're ultimately going to play out if he actually does press forward with them. And I think there's a convincing case to be made that some of these things could turn out to be pretty unloved ideas for the American populace.

[Al Franken]

And yet I feel like he's going to do it. When these people were asked who approved at 5343, the same group, when they were told what about if families are separated, then it was 38% approved. And of course families will be separated under this because sometimes the kids are our citizens and the adults aren't. And that's also something that I don't know if that was Polled.

[Unnamed Guest]

Yeah, that's a kind of a case in point here. There are so many, whether they're unintended consequences or intended consequences here.

[Al Franken]

Well, the cruelty is the point.

[Unnamed Guest]

That's kind of what I'm getting at is there are 4 million citizen children living with undocumented parents in this country, according to the Pew Research Center.

[Al Franken]

Right.

[Unnamed Guest]

That accounts for a large percentage of the undocumented population in this country. And so if you are going to do any kind of mass deportation operation, the question becomes, what do you do about that? And there was a time last month, I think it was, or maybe in late October, when Trump's incoming border czar, Tom Homan was talking about the idea of, well, we can just deport the kids too, or the kids can go with their parents. And then they kind of walked that back a little bit. The other point that I think is worth noting here is yes, Trump probably at least intends to do some of these things, but are Republicans in Congress going to go along with it, knowing that it could lead to these very ugly situations that the American people don't want? You know, Trump doesn't have to seek, he can't seek reelection. But a lot of these Republicans have their own careers to watch out for. And Republicans have very narrow majorities in Congress, including in the House, where it's only five seats now, we just learned. So these are all really big questions when it comes to what actually comes out of the next four years. So on Tuesday night, we had the last House race in the country called. It was a race in California. The Democrat won it. Republicans then won 220 seats. Democrats won 215. So a majority of five seats. What's notable about that is that majority is actually going to be down from where it was before. Republicans actually lost a seat in the House, which I think runs counter to this idea that Trump was just given this huge mandate and the American people wanted him to do whatever he wanted to do, which has been the line of argument from Maga. And then, you know, you start with that 220 to 215 majority. It's actually going to be quite a bit smaller for the first several months of the next Congress because we have these three members of the House which were chosen for Trump Cabinet picks. Matt Gaetz did not work out, but he resigned. So he won't be back. It's going to be basically a two seat majority for the first few months. And that creates big problems when it comes to Trump's agenda.

[Al Franken]

Right. So it's two. It's actually two.

[Unnamed Guest]

Yeah. Practically speaking, it'll start out as a 217, 215 majority as long as these Cabinet picks are confirmed.

[Al Franken]

And how quickly are those House seats filled? Do they have special elections to do that?

[Unnamed Guest]

Yeah. So the Gates and Michael Waltz seats, Michael Waltz is the pick for National Security Advisor. Those aren't until April 1st. Elise Stefanik's seat in New York won't be until, I think, two and a half months after she resigns, whenever that takes place.

[Al Franken]

So Americans want a check on Trump, you wrote, even Republicans want a check on him. Now. That means that they want their senators to vote on whether to confirm these people, right?

[Unnamed Guest]

Yeah, I was really struck by this. And this goes back to our conversation about how much of a mandate Trump has. Some of these Republicans, like Troy Neils, a congressman from Texas, have been coming out and basically saying, because of the election results, we need to do basically what Trump wants. We need to confirm all these Cabinet nominees, regardless of our reservations about them. And there was actually a poll, it was from CBS News and YouGov, which asked Republicans straight up, do you want your member of Congress to do what Trump says, or do you want them to stand up to him when they disagree? And Republicans said 56 to 44, that they preferred that congressional Republicans stand up to Trump when they disagree with his policies. And so I think this goes back to the idea that, like, there is not this huge mandate that the American people were preemptively signing off on whatever Donald Trump wants. They gave Republicans majorities, they gave Republicans the presidency. But that's not the same as saying whatever he wants. Let's do even as some Republicans, a remarkable number of Republicans, are saying that's basically what the party should do moving forward.

[Al Franken]

This is, I think the conclusion I came from all this is that this was really a pocketbook election. This was Americans saying, either I don't make enough or I pay too much. And probably the latter one first.

[Unnamed Guest]

Yeah, I think this was very much an environmental election. Not environment like the air we breathe and the water, but the national environment that exists. The thing that I think is most compelling, that demonstrates that is if you look, and the Financial Times did a really good piece on this, if you look at how the governing party has performed in elections worldwide this year, they have lost in the developed world. They've lost pretty much every election that they've run in. And so that, to me suggests there is still lingering concern about inflation. And the post Covid period has led to people being disconcerted about the state of affairs. And in that context, I think the election here looks a lot like something that was about voters deciding that they just didn't like what had happened over the last four years and the circumstances that they find themselves in, rather than a review of specific. Specific policies that were being put forward by either candidate.

[Al Franken]

And mainly economic, I think, is what you're saying.

[Unnamed Guest]

Yeah, yeah. Because I think immigration has faded a little bit as an issue.

[Al Franken]

When you talk to all the other developed countries, their inflation was worse. It didn't help to point that out to people. Well, the inflation is greater. And look at the inflation In Hungary, that's 11%. Ours is only 9.1.

[Unnamed Guest]

I always wondered if that could actually be a campaign ad. Like, yeah, you think inflation is terrible, but look at where it is everywhere else in the world. Is that an argument you could actually make to people? I think it's probably a pretty difficult one to make.

[Al Franken]

Well, good. You're not a campaign advisor and just analyze these things.

[Unnamed Guest]

Yes.

[Al Franken]

Speaking of which, nominees for this thing. And I'm worrying about Hegseth right now, and I worry about them, but I'm.

[Unnamed Guest]

Thinking as a fellow Minnesotan.

[Al Franken]

You're working as a fellow Minnesotan. And speaking of which, you are. You went to the university.

[Unnamed Guest]

Exactly.

[Al Franken]

Did you grow up in Minnesota?

[Unnamed Guest]

I did. I grew up in the Minneapolis suburbs.

[Al Franken]

Where?

[Unnamed Guest]

Eden Prairie.

[Al Franken]

Okay. I know Eden Prairie very well.

[Unnamed Guest]

So not too far away from St. Louis Park.

[Al Franken]

Yes. So not very far away at all. Well, have you been following the Viking season?

[Unnamed Guest]

Of course.

[Al Franken]

Okay. 10 and 2. Doesn't this hark back like, two years ago? Doesn't feel. Especially this last game.

[Unnamed Guest]

Yeah. Where they just like, won every game by, like, four points. Yes. And then they. But when they lost, they got destroyed. And my favorite stat about that year is. And this is totally far afield of our conversation is they were 13 and 4, but over the course of the season, they had more points scored against them than they actually scored because they got blown out so badly in the games that they lost.

[Al Franken]

Yeah. Like they play Philadelphia and lose by 34 nothing points. Yeah, something like that. And. Well, this year is different. It's a different thing. They've beaten some good teams.

[Unnamed Guest]

I have a little bit more confidence this year. A little bit more.

[Al Franken]

Okay, good. Well, this is. We should do a Vikings. Maybe a Vikings podcast.

[Unnamed Guest]

Yeah, I'd be up for it. I'm a former sports journalist as well. That's what I trained to be.

[Al Franken]

Oh, really? Yeah. Now you have Sunday Ticket, I imagine.

[Unnamed Guest]

No, but I do have a workaround where you can get the local market games. So I'm able to watch most Vikings Games from Washington, D.C. you have a workaround. Yeah, it's a legal one, too. Not illegal, but a legal one. Giving away too much here.

[Al Franken]

But no, no, if it's legal, it's legal.

[Unnamed Guest]

You get Sling TV and you get the local market feeds, and so a lot of times the Vikings games will be on there.

[Al Franken]

Okay. This week we're playing, what, the Falcons, Right. So, yeah, that's going to be a homecoming for Kirk Cousins. Yeah, yeah. All right, enough of that stuff. There are a lot of podcasts for that, right?

[Unnamed Guest]

I think so, yeah. Yeah, a fair number. Yeah.

[Al Franken]

So three quarters of Americans and a majority of Republicans in Congress want the Congress to push back on Trump when they disagree.

[Unnamed Guest]

Right. And the reason that I think this matters is, you know, we're not going to see the vast majority of Republican lawmakers in Congress resist Trump and vote against his Cabinet picks and his, you know, tariffs or anything like that.

[Al Franken]

This be certainly on the confirmation. It's all the Senate, right?

[Unnamed Guest]

Yeah, yeah, the Senate. The Senate, yeah. But I'm just talking more broadly, you know, tax cuts. If he pushes forward with something like that.

[Al Franken]

Right.

[Unnamed Guest]

The vast majority of Republicans are going to vote with him on pretty much everything, but the majorities that we're talking about are small enough that they cannot afford many defections.

[Al Franken]

This happened last Congress, of course.

[Unnamed Guest]

Yeah, yeah, exactly. In the House, it happened a lot. And this wasn't Trump's agenda, obviously, but it showed how the Republican Party is really divided. And there was a section that really wanted to push for budget cutting and not funding Ukraine, and then the kind of establishment wing of the party wanted to do other things, and it was really a mess. And so you take that message and you reduce the majority by even a couple more seats, and you create a situation in which two, three House Republicans, if they vote with all Democrats, if they're not comfortable with what's being put forward by Trump, that's going to thwart those policies at the root. And in the Senate, we're already seeing a number of Republican senators balk at these Cabinet picks. And so I think there is this thing on the left where they assume the Republican Party is just in the thrall of Trump and they're going to go along with everything. And that's true for the vast majority of Republicans, but it takes very few of them to gum up the works. And a lot of these members have reelection campaigns to worry about and may disagree with Trump on policy. So it's going to be a very interesting two years because of these tiny majorities.

[Al Franken]

I've been kind of fascinated with. Now, the non reaction from the Senate on Hegseth. I mean, this feels to me like disqualifying in spades, of course. But he's saying none of it's true. And I guess they got to check that. Are they going to have background checks on him or how does this distinction work about an FBI background check and what Trump was doing?

[Unnamed Guest]

Yeah, so Trump and his campaign, his transition team had floated not doing FBI background checks. They actually yesterday announced some kind of an arrangement with the Justice Department where there is at least a process by which that can be handled. But to my knowledge, they haven't committed to actually doing the background checks on all of these picks. And so that's a really big question.

[Al Franken]

So they were surprised by all of this. And that's one of the reasons you have the FBI background checks. Cause this stuff will come out.

[Unnamed Guest]

Yeah. And to your point about being surprised that Republican senators maybe haven't come out against this more, I think they're all playing a pretty delicate game. Obviously, you're familiar with that game. They don't wanna come out and say no way. They wanna kind of h that direction, which is, I think, what we're seeing with a lot of these comments. Kevin Kramer, the senator from North Dakota, talking about how some of these issues are very, very serious. Lindsey Graham even making some comments suggesting that he's skeptical right now. It seems like some of them want him to pull this pick without them having to go to the place of actually saying that they don't want to vote for this man. And I wouldn't be surprised if he joins Matt Gaetz on the sidelines eventually.

[Al Franken]

I think Trump floated Desantis as a substitute.

[Unnamed Guest]

There's lots of names floating around. DeSantis. Joni Ernst, the senator from Iowa, you know, would be the first female defense secretary. The thing I keep coming back to is I don't know if Trump really cares if these picks get rejected. Like he's gonna try it and if it doesn't work out, he's gonna go with somebody else. He doesn't like to be labeled a loser, but, like, he kind of has a thing where he believes that things will just move on really quickly and people won't dwell on this too much. So he'll go with these picks like Gates and Hegse right away. And if it doesn't work out, he goes with more traditional quote unquote picks.

[Al Franken]

Well, how quickly he Put Bondi in.

[Unnamed Guest]

Yeah.

[Al Franken]

What was that the same day? Right.

[Unnamed Guest]

I think it was very shit. Gates pulled out.

[Al Franken]

Yeah.

[Unnamed Guest]

I mean, and that's the other thing is I don't. I don't think there's a whole lot. I don't know if they vetted Pam Bondi before that, but there doesn't seem to be a whole lot of vetting going on with these picks. We at the Washington Post reported that the sexual assault allegations against Hegseth and the details were pretty much a surprise to the Trump team. And that's like, you know, this is something that exists in police reports and seemed to be kind of the bare minimum to be aware of those kinds of things going into this process. But, you know, he does things a different way, for sure.

[Al Franken]

He sure does, and we'll see how that works out. But it worked out from getting elected, that's for sure. And this has been a very hard time for a lot of people who listen to my podcast. So let's talk about some of the other nominees. Cash Patel is maybe one of the most controversials. This is the head FBI.

[Unnamed Guest]

Yeah, that's right.

[Al Franken]

And what's the objection to him? Other than everything?

[Unnamed Guest]

Yeah. I mean, if you're looking for a pick who is kind of the most similar to Matt Gaetz in certain ways, I think it's Cash Patel. He's talked pretty openly in the past about the idea of wanting to target retribution. Yeah, retribution for the deep state. He even had a list of, I think, 60 names of people who he regarded as being in the deep state. He talked in his book last year about how they need a clean house at the FBI and go after people. This is something that even some Republicans in the Senate and Congress are not comfortable with. The idea that the Justice Department would be turned against political enemies. And I think there is also a concern that Kash Patel just doesn't have the right kind of experience, which is also a thread that I think runs through a lot of these picks. He's not a prosecutor, just like Matt Gaetz wasn't a prosecutor, just like Pete Hegseth has never overseen something besides a veterans advocacy organization, which he did badly, evidently. Yeah, I mean, that's the stuff that's coming out now is not just the alleged drinking from the New Yorker story, but also financial mismanagement. Like the Defense Department has millions of people that would be overseeing it, is responsible for protecting this country.

[Al Franken]

How many troops do we have? Like 500,000 troops. And how many are in the Defense Department?

[Unnamed Guest]

These are jobs that Republican Senators, for whatever you think of them, probably take seriously and don't want to have somebody who's going to come into them and be a mess. Does Lindsey Graham want the defense secretary to be a mess and to not be able to manage people? I think that's probably a concern even for Lindsey Graham, whatever you think of him.

[Al Franken]

No, I think he's serious about this.

[Unnamed Guest]

Yeah. That's the one thing where he's actually stood up to Trump in certain ways over the years.

[Al Franken]

But there's a number of these nominees for different posts that have said that they would like retribution. Stephen Miller, of course, that's not surprising.

[Unnamed Guest]

Yeah, I wrote about this yesterday. There's a lot of talk about Cash Patel because of what he said, but he's not the only one. I think I counted eight Trump picks who have talked about this in some form or another. So you had Pam Bondi, the new attorney general pick, was on Fox Business last year talking about the idea that they would go after prosecutors in the Justice Department who did certain things. Stephen Miller talking about prosecuting.

[Al Franken]

And that's what she's in charge of.

[Unnamed Guest]

Yeah, she would have direct oversight of that kind of thing. And so that comment is very operative here. The one thing that I think is, and I think people noticed this at the time, but it may be slipped through in some people's minds, is Senator Marco Rubio, who's the pick for secretary of State. Not a law enforcement job, but after Trump was convicted in the summer, Rubio put out a very kind of vague tweet that talked about how Republicans need to start fighting fire with fire. Like, very, very suggestive of certain courses of. It's just remarkable the number of picks here who have warned to or advocated some form of retribution against Trump's enemies and the people who have supposedly wronged him over the years. And it suggests that the tenor of the Cabinet and Trump's appointees aren't exactly going to be pushing him away from doing those kinds of things, or at least attempting them.

[Al Franken]

Russell Vaught, he's been nominated head omb. That's a pretty big job.

[Unnamed Guest]

He held that job in the first Trump administration, but he's been very much involved in Project 2025 and various efforts to set up the next Trump administration. And he's talked openly about the idea that Republicans need to fight back harder. And I think his quote was, destroy this threat at every level, with every tool, making government bureaucrats want to quit their jobs because they're in trauma. These are pretty drastic ideas that are being put forward And I think we should all be prepared for some of those things to actually be effectuated.

[Al Franken]

Okay, what do you think of my former colleagues, the Democrats and Republicans, but especially the Republicans? One, what do you think ultimately they're going to do when they're voting on this? Is it going to be like Rounds as someone from South Dakota. Right. And he seems to be fairly independent of Trump, as if you compare him to other Republican senators. How many of these are going to actually vote against a Patel? It's hard to answer that question, isn't it?

[Unnamed Guest]

It is hard to say. But I think the universe of Republican senators who could possibly vote against some of these picks, whether it's Cash, Patel or somebody else, is probably larger than some people might recognize. Like we think of the Susan Collins'and the Lisa Murkowskis as being the moderates in the Senate, and those are the Republican moderates in the Senate. But there are a number of ones who have criticized Trump over the years and expressed some interest in making sure the Senate has its own prerogatives and isn't bulldozed by the executive branch. A few that I think are worth watching are Todd Young from Indiana, who I don't think even endorsed Trump in this election, Thom Tillis from North Carolina. He's got a reelection campaign, but he's proven he can stand up to Trump in certain ways. Mike Rounds, as you mentioned, is another big one. John Curtis, the new senator elect from Utah who's taking Romney's seat, was seen as the more moderate pick in that primary. So there are a number of candidates for standing up to these, depending on what their priorities are.

[Al Franken]

We're gonna take a quick break. We'll be right back with Aaron Blake.

[Aaron Blake]

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[Al Franken]

Let's talk about the pardon. It seems like people are reversing themselves on the pardon, including the President.

[Unnamed Guest]

I'm curious to get your take on this.

[Al Franken]

Well, you know, it's unfortunate that he made sort of a statement that you can't take back, which is, I will not pardon my son before the election and then after the election. Now he will. And when he talked about it, he just really talked about how unfair it all was and that no one usually gets tried for these things and he was selected because he was his son.

[Unnamed Guest]

But a lot of that we knew before. I'm not sure what happened over the intervening months.

[Al Franken]

He felt that it was politically expedient to say I'm not going to pardon him. I guess.

[Unnamed Guest]

Yeah.

[Al Franken]

And for what it was worth, I don't know if that was worth anything, but is it worth something to say I will not pardon him and then reverse yourself? Yeah. The first time I met him was at the White House and I was about, I don't know, about three or four weeks away from being seated. The first thing he said to me is never make a promise on something you can't keep.

[Unnamed Guest]

My word is a Biden is one of his favorite.

[Al Franken]

He didn't use that on me expressions. Yeah, but he's just said that people ask how I'm here for 40 years in this town and it's never make a promise that you can't keep. And he repeated it and then he asked me, well, when you're seated, we're going to have to deliver something for you. And I said, well, yeah, there's this rail line that hasn't been completed going from Minneapolis. It's supposed to go to St. Cloud, but it's only halfway there, the North Star Line, and we need to complete that. And you pledged that you would do that in St. Cloud. Right. And he went, well, then we'll do it, we'll do it. And then I was walking out and chief of staff at the time.

[Unnamed Guest]

Yeah, Ron Klain.

[Al Franken]

It was Clayne. Yeah. So I walked by Clayne's door and he said, how did it go? And I went, great. We're going to get the extension of the North Star Line. And he said, how much does that cost? And I said, 130 million or whatever it was. And he went, no.

[Unnamed Guest]

I love that story.

[Al Franken]

Welcome to Washington. You know, but I mean, I, I don't know if he's ever had something like that so public that he's reversed himself on in that way. But yeah, he does say, I give my word as a Biden. Or did he do it on this? Did he actually say that on this, though?

[Unnamed Guest]

I don't know if he said it on this, but he in the White House said over and again that they, that they weren't going to do this. I mean, it's, it wasn't even like, we're not, we're not planning to, or, you know, not at this time. It was like, no, we're not doing that.

[Al Franken]

Yeah. I mean, he could be sentenced. What I think in Your article was 17 years for the not paying your taxes thing.

[Unnamed Guest]

Yeah, he wouldn't have gotten anywhere near that. I mean, I don't even know if he was going to be going to jail. I think this is, I think the way that the pardon is written, it is much broader than the crimes for which he was convicted.

[Al Franken]

It's from the point where he was hired by Burisma.

[Unnamed Guest]

Yeah, exactly. Eleven years, actually. One of the broadest pardons that we have ever seen. It's reminiscent of Nixon's pardon in its language, but it's for a longer period of time.

[Al Franken]

The language on Nixon was that anything while he was president. Right?

[Unnamed Guest]

Yeah. Anything that he might have done as president, it wasn't just Watergate. And so that's not normal for a pardon. Usually it's for a specific offense. And sometimes we have like large scale amnesties for the Whiskey Rebellion or for Confederate soldiers that kind of absolve them of that. But this is for like literally anything Carter did.

[Al Franken]

The best one.

[Unnamed Guest]

Yeah. That's a federal crime at least. And so I think there is a potential thought that Republicans would maybe go after him in some way or the Trump Justice Department would go after him in some way, and this was just the way to insulate him from moving forward. Yeah.

[Al Franken]

No, what Carter did was he pardoned the draft dodgers.

[Unnamed Guest]

Right, Exactly.

[Al Franken]

Who went to Canada.

[Unnamed Guest]

That's the other example that I cited in my piece. So finding an example like this that's not specific to a crime or at least a circumstance like the Whiskey Rebellion or the Civil War is very difficult. And so it's just kind of interesting from a Precedent standpoint as well.

[Al Franken]

Yeah. A lot of presidents, it's interesting what their pardons are. I mean, Trump pardoned a lot of criminals. Right. I mean, Flynn and other members of, you know, Manafort was pardoned.

[Unnamed Guest]

Yeah, yeah. Paul Manafort, Roger Stone, he hadn't been convicted yet. Republican Congress people, Rod Blagojevich, which is. I'll never, I'll never get over like, I mean, this is a controversial pardon from. From Biden. There's no getting around that. And it went against his word. Donald Trump's use of the pardon power was extraordinarily political, especially at the end of his tenure. I don't think that that should get lost in all of this. Like, if you look at the people that he pardoned, he just nominated the man he pardoned, who's his son in law's father, who he pardoned him, and now he's going to be ambassador to France, Charles Kushner.

[Al Franken]

You think that he's going to be approved?

[Unnamed Guest]

Probably, yeah.

[Al Franken]

I think you're probably right.

[Unnamed Guest]

I mean. Yeah, I feel like the sweet spot of getting rejected by the Senate is probably people are concerned about your personal behavior, but they're also concerned about your ability to do the job.

[Al Franken]

Being an ambassador.

[Unnamed Guest]

Yeah, being an ambassador. I mean, it's not one of these. What's the name for the ambassadors who are just like big donors and go to the Bahamas or something like that. Patronage or whatever. You have to have something.

[Al Franken]

Who did? George H.W. bush. He pardoned guys who were actually kind of like Caspar Weinberger and those guys, Right?

[Unnamed Guest]

Yeah. He pardoned six figures in the Iran Contra affair. But that was for things that were basically related to the special counsel, or I guess it was independent counsel back then. It was basically things that were related to the independent counsel's investigation, which is similar to the Michael Flynn pardon. It's like things related to the Mueller investigation, but it wasn't for everything they had done for a period of time. So that's why the Hunter Biden pardon is a little bit different.

[Al Franken]

So let's go back to just why the margin in the election, which he won by about 1.5%, is that right?

[Unnamed Guest]

Yeah, I think it's trending towards 1.4 right now. Had some votes in New York City.

[Al Franken]

Come in which is less than he lost the popular vote by in both elections.

[Unnamed Guest]

Right. He lost it in 2016. He lost it by more than two points and more than four points in 2020.

[Al Franken]

Yeah, right. I'm talking about losing the popular vote.

[Unnamed Guest]

Right.

[Al Franken]

But why do you Believe that she.

[Unnamed Guest]

Lost that Kamala Harris. Sorry, I was thinking about 2016 that Kamala Harris lost.

[Al Franken]

Oh, yes. I'm sorry. He's only defeated the women. Who. Which. Do you think the Democrats will nominate a woman next time?

[Unnamed Guest]

I think the first female president of this country will probably be a Republican at this point. Yeah. I think they'll be scared away from that. Yeah. Now, like we said before, I think there is an argument to be made that even as she lost, she ran a pretty good campaign. If you look at how she ran in the swing states versus the rest of the country, which weren't getting the level of attention, you know, she did better in those swing states where her campaign was actually focused. It was just a big swing nationwide that swept Trump into office. And so I don't know how much blame she necessarily gets for that. Certainly I think certain things she did, like not distancing herself from Biden enough, you know, could have been.

[Al Franken]

When she was asked on the View, I guess, what would you have done differently?

[Unnamed Guest]

She said, I can't think of mind.

[Al Franken]

Yeah. That was used in ads over and over again.

[Unnamed Guest]

Over and over again. Yeah. And I'm sure her campaign was panicking after she said that. So it wasn't a perfect campaign, but I think it was a lot better than a lot of people who were concerned about her taking over would have thought, would have come out of this campaign. And I don't.

[Al Franken]

I thought she ran a good race. And I'm a little questioned about the importance of joy in politics as kind of a slogan, which was, I think.

[Unnamed Guest]

People don't want joy.

[Al Franken]

I think people get mad at Joy a little bit when they're saying prices are too high and I'm not making enough.

[Unnamed Guest]

Yeah. I'm not sharing in this Joy.

[Al Franken]

Yeah. And so fuck you. This isn't about joy. It's about getting the economy back on track.

[Unnamed Guest]

Yeah, I think there's something to that.

[Al Franken]

Yeah. But anyway, I do think that she, you know, no one runs an error free, even in the short time that she had. And that was another thing against her, which was the short time she had this to do this.

[Unnamed Guest]

Yeah, yeah. Just because you lose a campaign doesn't mean you did everything wrong. Just because you won a campaign doesn't mean everybody loved every policy that you put forward and that you did everything right and that the Madison Square Garden rally that Trump did wasn't a bad thing necessarily for him. Like, these things still matter on the margins. And, you know, it's not a full scale repudiation of Kamala Harris campaign.

[Al Franken]

Well, Aaron, thank you so much. I agree with you on almost everything.

[Unnamed Guest]

I appreciate that, Alan. Thanks for having me. And I'm always happy to come back.

[Al Franken]

You bet. Well, I hope you enjoyed listening. That beautiful music is by Leo Kotke, the great Leo Kotke. I want to thank Peter Ogburn for producing this podcast. We'll talk again next week.

[Unnamed Guest]

If you like the Al Franken podcast, you can listen to all episodes ad free right now by joining Wondery in the Wondery app or on Apple Podcasts. Prime members can listen ad free on Amazon Music. Before you go, tell us about yourself by filling out a short [e-mail] survey Imagine this.

[Aaron Blake]

You help your little brother land a great job abroad, but when he arrives, the job doesn't exist. Instead, he's trapped in a heavily guarded compound, forced to sit at a computer and scam innocent victims. All while armed guards stand by with shoot to kill orders. Scam Factory, the explosive new true crime podcast from Wondery exposes a multi billion dollar criminal empire operating in plain sight. Told through one family's harrowing account of sleepless nights, desperate phone calls and dangerous rescue attempts, Scam Factory reveals a brutal truth. The only way out is to scam their way out. Follow Scam Factory on the Wondery app or wherever you get your podcast. You can binge all episodes of Scam Factory early and ad free right now by joining Wondery Plus.