The Al Franken Podcast

Episode: War Correspondent Tim Mak on the War in Ukraine

Date: September 7, 2025
Guest: Tim Mak – War Correspondent, founder of “The Counteroffensive” Substack

Episode Overview

Al Franken hosts war correspondent Tim Mak, who has reported from Kyiv since the start of the war in Ukraine. The discussion centers around the current state of the war, the ongoing trauma for Ukrainians, the roles of Putin, Trump, and Western allies, Ukrainian resilience, and the formidable challenges ahead for any peace settlement.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. The War’s Current State & Public Perception

• Media Disconnection:

  • Tim Mak observes that outside Ukraine, many believe intense diplomatic activity signals an imminent end to the war.

    “Every conversation I have is, ‘Well, the war is about to end soon, isn’t it?’ … I just want to kind of bring us back into reality.” – Tim Mak (03:35)

  • Contrasts international perception with ongoing daily realities for Ukrainians.

• No Diplomatic Progress:

  • Despite deadlines and rhetoric from Western leaders, the podcast agrees that:
    • No new sanctions have been imposed on Russia.
    • No real pathway to a peace deal exists.
    • Putin’s demands remain unchanged since the 2022 invasion.

  “It's been a month since that deadline. We have no sanctions. We have no plan for a peace deal.” – Tim Mak (04:20)

2. Life for Ukrainians under Siege

• Constant Threat:

  • Kyiv is hit by drones or missiles “on a near-nightly basis.” (Tim Mak, 05:28)
  • Russian attacks focus on civilian infrastructure and create regular terror.

  "Millions of people are being terrorized in this way because they can't live in peace. They can't live without the threat of violence from a dictator." – Tim Mak (10:33)

• Daily Trauma:

  • Discusses how trauma goes beyond casualties; the psychological toll pervades society.

    “Missiles explode in the city center, they destroy and alter thousands and thousands of lives.” – Tim Mak (07:18)

• Children as Victims:

  • Nearly 20,000 Ukrainian children have been abducted; Russians are “auctioning them off to be adopted by Russian parents… teaching them propaganda related to the Russian language and Russian history.” – Tim Mak (22:26)

3. Differences in Military Targeting

• Russian Approach:
  • Deliberately targets civilians, including children.
• Ukrainian Operations:
  • Ukrainian strikes are aimed at military targets (e.g., refineries), though risks persist:

    "Ukrainians have been much more clear about targeting only military sites." – Tim Mak (05:53)

4. Political Context & Western Policy

• Trump’s Diplomacy and Alaska Summit:

  • Tim and Al mock Trump’s failed attempt to leverage his relationship with Putin to achieve a ceasefire at the “Alaska summit.”
  • Trump’s approach lacked substance; European leaders and Zelensky attended follow-up talks at the White House, which amounted to damage control rather than real progress.

    “There was this wishful thinking that Trump… might be able to end the war, even if accidentally… That’s turned out, even at the low, low bar, not to be the case.” – Tim Mak (12:04)

• Skepticism toward Peace Deals:

  • Tim reiterates that Putin cannot be trusted to keep any agreement due to his record of violating past accords.

    “Any peace without a just sustainable enforcement mechanism will simply be a prelude to the next war.” – Al Franken reading from ‘Counteroffensive’ (16:07)

• Security Guarantees for Ukraine:

  • Options include:
    • Stationing European troops in Ukraine.
    • Legally binding security guarantees from European countries and the US.
    • Massive provision of arms to deter future Russian aggression.

    “Part of it is also, what’s the future of Ukraine look like?... Can it join the west and become a member of the European Union… become too wealthy to invade?” – Tim Mak (19:26)

  • But NATO membership for Ukraine is not under serious consideration (36:41).

5. Historical & Cultural Context

• Cossack Traditions and Defiance:
  • Zelensky is seen as embodying the long-standing Cossack tradition of refusing to capitulate to foreign demands.

    “The Cossacks are a hotly, hotly debated issue in historical memory. … But that rebel and defiant nature… is maintained to this day in Ukrainian culture.” – Tim Mak (23:12)

6. Economic Warfare and Sanctions

• Effectiveness of Sanctions:

  • Debate over Russia’s economic resilience:
    • Tim believes Russia is floundering economically (interest rates near 20%, inflation more than double US).
    • Secondary sanctions (targeting anyone who does business with Russia) could be devastating but have not been enacted.

    “Russian companies are sanctioned. But if you make it secondary… that has devastating second and third order effects. But we haven’t done that.” – Tim Mak (27:10)

• Autocracy’s Fragility:

  • Russia’s autocratic system makes it brittle and unpredictable; cracks may show suddenly under pressure.

    “…when they bend, they snap. We won’t know until it collapses.” – Tim Mak (41:11)

7. What Would Make Putin Keep His Word?

• No Trust in Putin’s Promises:
  • Any deal must include enforceable disincentives (military, economic, political) to deter future attacks.
• The US as Key Security Guarantor:
  • Only the US currently has the power to credibly threaten Russia with the necessary force.

    "The United States is primary among them." – Tim Mak (36:32)

8. Outlook for the Future

• No Peace in Sight:
  • Neither side is positioned for a sustainable peace; Russia demands capitulation, which Ukraine rejects.
  • “All there is is a capitulation, which is what Russia is demanding. The Ukrainians aren’t going to do that.” – Tim Mak (40:13)
• Unpredictability of Events:
  • Autocracies can collapse suddenly, but at present, peace is nowhere close.

    “Peace is not likely right now.” – Tim Mak (47:21)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the perpetual trauma of war:

  “Every time I try to go to bed, there’s an attack and then you just lay awake. … You hear these ominous drones buzzing in the night sky…” – Tim Mak (09:13)

• On Trump’s diplomatic approach:

  “There was this wishful thinking that Trump, in a very chaotic way, might be able to end the war, even if accidentally and even with bad intentions. That’s turned out, even at the low, low bar, not to be the case.” – Tim Mak (12:04)

• On illusions of peace:

  “Any peace without a just sustainable enforcement mechanism will simply be a prelude to the next war.” – Al Franken quoting “Counteroffensive” (16:07)

• On Putin’s ambitions:

  “What he [Putin] said is that he thinks that the greatest tragedy of the 20th century was not the Holocaust, not World War I, but instead the collapse of the Soviet Union.” – Tim Mak (43:51)

• On the futility of negotiations without leverage:

  “We shouldn’t be distracted by all the bright lights of summits and meetings at the White House and flying to Alaska to think that, hey, the war is about to end.” – Tim Mak (39:49)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• 00:34 – 03:35: Introduction to Tim Mak, opening questions about the war’s trajectory.
• 05:28: “How often does Kyiv get hit by drones and missiles?” Daily/near-nightly.
• 07:18: Tim describes the day-to-day trauma and toll on Ukrainians.
• 10:33: The psychological toll – unable to distinguish between drone noises and daily city life.
• 11:05 – 13:12: Trump’s Alaska summit and its lack of results.
• 16:07: Al quotes from “Counteroffensive” on the impossibility of trust in Putin.
• 22:03 – 22:26: Discussion of Russia’s abduction and “brainwashing” of Ukrainian children.
• 23:12: Ukrainian Cossack defiance as cultural background.
• 26:42: Effectiveness (or not) of sanctions and Western leverage.
• 36:41: Why Ukraine won’t get NATO membership in the near future.
• 41:11: How Russia’s economic brittleness could suddenly crack its system.
• 46:13: Forecasting the possible duration of the war.

Takeaways

• Ukrainians remain defiant and united; trauma is omnipresent, and security boils down to credible, enforceable guarantees—ideally from the US.
• There is currently no viable path to peace, largely due to an entrenched Putin, Western caution, and ineffective diplomacy.
• Western and especially American resolve—and strategic arming of Ukraine—remain the only real leverage points for shifting the dynamic.
• The war is not merely about territory, but about Ukraine’s right to exist as a sovereign democracy—a fundamental threat to Putin’s worldview.

Final Remarks:
Al Franken and Tim Mak cut through the headlines and posturing to lay out the harrowing, reality-based perspective from Ukraine: relentless trauma, a resilient people, and no illusions about what it will take to achieve true peace.