The Athletic NBA Daily – NBA Award Predictions: Who Will Win MVP?

Date: October 14, 2025
Hosts: Dave DuFour (D), Zena Keita (E), Esfandiar Baraheni (B)

Episode Overview

In this episode, the crew of The Athletic NBA Daily unites after a busy offseason to preview and predict the winners of the NBA’s major individual awards ahead of the 2025-26 season. With a special focus on the MVP race, the hosts dive into the most compelling candidates, examining not only player stats and team prospects but also the powerful narratives that often drive award voting. The discussion expands to Defensive Player of the Year, Most Improved Player, Coach of the Year, Sixth Man of the Year, and Rookie of the Year—with lively debate, sharp analysis, and plenty of laughs along the way.

Main Discussion Points & Insights

The MVP Race: Wide-Open and Narrative-Driven

[04:11]

• Dave opens by stating, “I don't think Nikola Jokic can win the award no matter what the Nuggets do...he doesn't have five MVPs,” despite historic production.
• The hosts agree last year’s winner Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is unlikely to repeat, as voters and teams may catch up to his style.

Zena’s MVP Pick: Luka Doncic

[05:02]

• “Luka has the stage set up for him...Literally, LeBron has warmed up the crowd, told a few jokes, and then went off onto the side of the stage and said, Luka, take it away. You got the spotlight.” – Zena [05:06]
• She cites Luka’s leap to the Lakers, impressive stats (“38% from deep, 60% true shooting”), improved conditioning, and narrative momentum.
• Both Dave and Esfandiar agree the Lakers must reach at least the #3 seed for Luka to truly contend.

Esfandiar’s MVP Pick: Anthony Edwards

[08:48]

• “There is a narrative for another scorer in the Western Conference to win MVP...Anthony Edwards from the Minnesota Timberwolves.” – Esfandiar [08:50]
• He points to Edwards’ potential jump in playmaking/scoring, fans’ love, and the underdog Timberwolves possibly breaking into the top three seeds.
• Zena is skeptical of the Wolves’ supporting cast and defensive demands, questioning whether they can finish higher than fourth.

Dave’s MVP Pick: Jalen Brunson

[13:58]

• “No team would have more narrative juice for an MVP candidate than the New York Knicks. I think Jalen Brunson has a chance.” – Dave [14:00]
• Dave expects the Knicks to be a top-two team in the East and highlights Brunson’s clutch reputation, usage, and potential for easier buckets in Mike Brown’s offense.
• Zena argues for Trae Young as a surprise candidate if the Hawks finish top three; Dave notes this would be a major shock considering his prior reputation.

Other Notable MVP Candidates

• Nikola Jokic & Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Hosts agree team success means they're always in the mix, but voter fatigue may play a role.
• Wild Cards: Kawhi Leonard (if healthy), Giannis Antetokounmpo (if Bucks mount a “last dance”), and Trae Young (if Atlanta overachieves).

Defensive Player of the Year: Wemby’s Award to Lose?

[16:51]

• All hosts lean heavily toward Victor Wembanyama.
• “I think Wemby will win, but that is discrediting Chet Holmgren...he can go toe to toe.” – Esfandiar [17:08]

If Not Wemby...

• Chet Holmgren: Anchoring OKC’s top defense, rim protection, advanced metrics.
• Dyson Daniels: Disruptive in passing lanes, detailed defensive student (“Not a lot of guards in the league that watch film like he does.” – Zena [18:56])
• Evan Mobley: Hosts realize late they’re sleeping on Mobley’s paint defense for Cleveland (“What are we doing?” – Zena [19:26])

Most Improved Player: Expect a Pacer?

[20:08]

Esfandiar’s Pick: Andrew Nembhard

• “Opportunity equals...more usage, more shots. He’s going to have tons of responsibility over this Pacers offense.” – Esfandiar [20:38]
• Dave notes Pacers’ play style and Nembhard’s surprising midrange scoring and defense.

Zena’s Pick: Bennedict Mathurin

• Rick Carlisle intends to start Mathurin, giving him more on-ball reps and scoring responsibility, especially with Tyrese Haliburton out.

Other Candidates

• Franz Wagner (Orlando): Shooting may hold him back.
• Amen Thompson (Houston): Betting favorite but must show scoring jump.
• Jalen Johnson (Atlanta): On radar from last season, but already had a breakout; still a contender.

Coach of the Year: Who Will Lead a Breakout?

[27:24]

Dave: Quinn Snyder (Hawks)

• “I think Quinn Snyder has a really good shot...if they’re the three seed, I think they’ve got a shot.” [27:45]
• Cites Snyder’s offensive innovation and new talent improving the Hawks.

Zena: Quinn Snyder or Jamahl Mosley (Magic)

• Orlando leap to top-five (or ideally top-four) would thrust Mosley into consideration.

Esfandiar: Darko Rajaković (Raptors)

• “Especially if...a team who won 30 games last year, if they end up winning...45 games, that’s a 15 win improvement.” – Esfandiar [30:23]
• Raptors’ young core and coaching improvement could surprise in the East.

Other Mentions

• Mike Brown (Knicks) for a potential one-seed
• JJ Redick (Lakers), Chauncey Billups (Blazers, for his work with young talent), Steve Kerr (Warriors, if they catch fire)

Sixth Man of the Year: Opportunity & Offense

[33:00]

Dave: Nickeil Alexander-Walker (Hawks)

• “Backup point guard who can play next to Trae...Atlanta is going to be a better team.” [33:40]

Zena: Jonathan Kuminga (Warriors)

• “When he has 20 more minutes, his stats are out the roof...18 [points] a game, plus five more rebounds in those 20 or more minutes.” – Zena [35:13]
• Emphasizes Warriors’ veteran needs and Kuminga’s athleticism and improvement on defense.

Esfandiar: Anthony Simons (Celtics, or Peyton Pritchard)

• “The Celtics offense is, you know, juiced-era baseball type of thing...if this is a scoring bias award...one of these two guys is going to average...off the bench.” [38:04]
• Dave jokes about a “pump and dump” strategy: Boston supercharging Simons’ minutes/stats for a trade.

Rookie of the Year: Cooper Flagg’s to Lose

[38:49]

Cooper Flagg (Mavericks)

• “He does seem to be far and away the most NBA ready rookie and seems to be the healthiest of the NBA ready rookies.” – Dave [38:55]
• Esfandiar describes his impressive preseason: “He was phenomenal on both ends...they were obviously asking him to carry the ball, bring it up, you know, play point guard, make decisions. And on top of that, he was wildly good defensively.” [39:17]

Other Candidates:

• Dylan Harper (Spurs): May face crowded backcourt/minutes crunch.
• VJ Edgecombe (Sixers): Defensive versatility, but crowded guard rotation.
• Ace Bailey (Jazz): “He’s gonna have opportunities to make mistakes and come back. And Will Hardy’s a really good youth coach as well…” – Zena [42:17]

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On MVP Voter Psychology:
  “This is a very narrative-driven award.” – Dave [08:31]
• On ‘Skinny Luka’:
  “I think he could have been MVP or in the conversation for MVP last year, and now he's...just adds to whatever pounds he lost. Add that into the weight for the conversation for him to be MVP.” – Zena [06:15]
• On Timberwolves’ Hopes:
  “I love the idea that Anthony Edwards is going to come in here with a big chip on his shoulder...but I don’t know if he has enough around him for the entire car to work.” – Zena [11:22]
• On Wemby’s Listing:
  “The Spurs...updated the listing on the website. Officially 7 foot 5. Yeah, officially 7 foot 5. So. Yeah. Insane how tall that guy is.” – Dave [19:37]
• On Coach of Year Trends:
  “It’s more about that, right. It’s that jump from one year to the next that seems to really push the coach of the year stuff." – Dave [29:10]
• On Most Improved Award Philosophy:
  “Most improved is very much a vibes [award].” – Dave [44:53]

Key Timestamps

• [04:11] — Show begins main award discussion; MVP field and narratives
• [05:02] — Zena picks Luka Doncic for MVP
• [08:48] — Esfandiar backs Anthony Edwards for MVP
• [13:58] — Dave champions Jalen Brunson for MVP
• [16:51] — Defensive Player of the Year: all pick Wemby as favorite
• [20:08] — Most Improved Player: Nembhard, Mathurin, and others
• [27:24] — Coach of the Year: Hawks, Magic, Raptors, others considered
• [33:00] — Sixth Man: Alexander-Walker, Kuminga, Simons/Pritchard
• [38:49] — Rookie of the Year: Cooper Flagg, others
• [43:57] — Hosts wrap with rapid awards chatter (“Clutch Player,” wildcards, award overlap)

Closing Thoughts

This episode gives listeners sharp, lively predictions and deep insight into the subtle forces shaping NBA award outcomes. The conversation skillfully blends stats, historical trends, roster analysis, and the narratives that define each race. If you want to get a head start on the season’s biggest debates—or impress friends with preseason award wisdom—this episode is required listening.

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