The Athletic NBA Daily — Slam N’ Jam: “Surprise Teams”

Date: September 27, 2025
Hosts: Andrew Schlecht (B), Alex Spears (C)
Guest: Law Murray (D, Clippers beat writer)

Main Theme

This episode is the much-anticipated annual “Surprise Teams” episode, where the hosts analyze NBA teams projected by Vegas to be among the league’s worst (preseason over/under win total <36) and try to identify which of these long shots could outperform expectations by at least 10 wins and become playoff contenders. The trio—Andrew, Alex, and guest Law Murray—systematically discuss all nine candidates for the 2025–26 season, debate arguments for and against their surprise potential, and finish by making their official picks for the coming year.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Framing “Surprise Team” Criteria (04:00-08:00)

• A “surprise team” is a squad projected to win fewer than 36 games that outscores their Vegas over/under by at least 10 wins.
• Historically, 1.8 such teams appear per season; last year saw four (a recent record).
  • Noted recent surprises: last year’s Pistons (+19.5 wins on O/U), Portland (+13.5), Chicago, and the Clippers.
• Alex: “On average, we get 1.8 surprise teams per season... most seasons you’re getting at least one.” (06:47)

League Context Note

• This year, with more bottom feeders owing their picks elsewhere (e.g. Phoenix, New Orleans), there may be less incentive to “tank,” possibly raising win totals across the board. (08:43)

2. Team-by-Team Surprise Cases

Each contender is presented with a “pitch” and then critiqued.

A. Utah Jazz (09:17-14:29)

• O/U: 18.5; Needed for surprise: 29 wins
  • Have the best player among the bottom teams (Markkanen) and best center (Kessler).
  • Law notes the Thunder own Utah’s pick if it falls outside the top 8, increasing tank incentive.
  • General consensus: Too young, front office likely to “bubble wrap” good players.
  • Law: “They’re waiting one more year, one more lottery pick after that... The Jazz have not gotten the blue chip guy yet.” (12:57)

B. Brooklyn Nets (14:29-20:58)

• O/U: 20.5; Needed for surprise: 31 wins
  • New coach (Jordi Fernandez), potential trade assets, but extremely young after drafting five first-round rookies.
  • Law: “Their point guards were three of those first round picks… they have a whale of a time trying to score points with all those mistake prone ball handlers.” (17:53)
  • The panel has little faith even a star trade would make them competitive.

C. Washington Wizards (20:58-25:34)

• O/U: 21.5; Needed for surprise: 32 wins
  • Traded away Jordan Poole, added CJ McCollum and retained Khris Middleton: more “adults in the room.”
  • Young core is fun, but both Law and Andrew say the team will almost certainly sell off veterans at the deadline, paving the way for “stealth tanking.”
  • Andrew: “They're doing the stealth tank... [with] Marvin Bagley and Tristan Vuksovic as their two bigs. That's it.” (24:16)

D. Charlotte Hornets (25:57-31:49)

• O/U: 27.5; Needed for surprise: 38 wins
  • LaMelo Ball’s health is a catalyst (when he played 51+ games, team won 43).
  • Healthier core, plus promising rookies—but the big man rotation is thin.
  • Law: “Your team is led by Lamelo Ball, Brandon Miller, and Miles Bridges... 41%, 40%, 43% from the field... Two of those guys jack up double digit threes per game despite the fact they’re nowhere close to 40% guys.” (29:58)

E. New Orleans Pelicans (32:21-36:46)

• O/U: 30.5; Needed for surprise: 41 wins
  • No incentive to tank post-trade; 49 wins two years ago with much same core; plus, Zion says, “I haven’t felt like this since college, high school, just where I can walk into a gym and I feel good.” (33:21)
  • But the supporting cast and glue guys aren’t what they were, and Zion’s health is an enormous question mark.
  • Law: “Alex, let me tell you something, you want to bring up the 49 win team from two years ago? They're not that team no more, bro.” (34:17)

F. Phoenix Suns (36:46-41:21)

• O/U: 31.5; Needed for surprise: 42 wins
  • Best star among the group in Devin Booker but little depth; owner Matt Ishbia’s comments reveal low expectations.
  • Improved center/defensive depth (Mark Williams, Dylan Brooks).
  • Law: “Devin Booker... does not elevate the performance of a team by himself. ...His relief is literally Jalen Green and Dillon Brooks. ...that is a team that is ripe to be, at best, average offensively.” (39:43)

G. Chicago Bulls (41:21-44:34)

• O/U: 32.5; Needed for surprise: 43 wins
  • Returning 84% of last year’s rotation minutes; last year’s finish: 15–6 in the final 21; added Kevin Huerter for shooting.
  • Alex: “...Minnesota and OKC are returning a greater percentage of minutes... With Chicago returning 84... For the purposes of this, that sounds pretty good.” (41:21)
  • Law is cautious, citing lack of “go-to” guys and reliance on going fast.
  • Andrew: “I don’t believe in their defense either… They’re going to give up a ton of points this year.” (44:12)

H. Portland Trail Blazers (45:37-51:21)

• O/U: 34.5; Needed for surprise: 45 wins
  • 25-25 over final 50 games, top 10 defense, added veteran mentorship for guards, but offense was putrid last year and little reason to expect improvement.
  • Jeremy Grant’s contract is described as “arguably the worst in basketball.”
  • Law: “Portland’s offense is going to be so bad, bro.” (48:51)

I. Sacramento Kings (51:21-55:36)

• O/U: 35.5; Needed for surprise: 46 wins
  • Recent history of winning: 48, 46, then 40 wins. Roster mix now a weird “talent play,” introducing Dennis Schroder, possibly Jonathan Kuminga.
  • Lack of fit is glaring, and Keegan Murray’s role is shrinking.
  • Law: “The Kings are literally the basketball team that you make a terrible B-movie that goes straight to DVD for. And I mean straight to DVD, a device no one uses anymore.” (54:52)

3. Official Surprise Team Picks (56:38-62:14)

• All three hosts pick the Chicago Bulls as their surprise team.
  • Chicago’s combination of continuity, solid closing stretch, and rising east makes the win total (“a gift from Vegas” at 32.5) seem markedly low.
  • Andrew: “They have an identity now... a pretty balanced roster... Giddy... continues to get better. Kevin Huerter is a perfect fit... They were actually a really fun basketball team last year.” (57:55)
  • Law: “Chicago is the only one of those teams in the east... not incentivized to tank because the Bulls never tank. They probably couldn’t tank even if you told them...” (58:04)
  • Alex: “See, I think this was a gift from Vegas, because they won 39 games last year. Why is it 32 and a half?” (59:35)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• Law (on the Jazz): “It’s always the Oklahoma City Thunder, man. ...Like, even if they try to win games... that front office is going to do everything it can to... bubble wrap these dudes.” (11:58, 12:56)
• Andrew (on stealth tanking): “They’re doing the stealth tank... where it’s Marvin Bagley and Tristan Vuksovic as their two bigs. That’s it.” (24:16)
• Law (on Pelicans nostalgia): “You want to bring up the 49 win team from two years ago? They're not that team no more, bro.” (34:17)
• Alex (on Phoenix): “Of all the potential surprise teams, the Suns have the best player. Devin Booker is a consensus top 20 player in the league.” (37:51)
• Law (on Sacramento): “The Kings are literally the basketball team that you make a terrible B movie that goes straight to DVD for. And I mean straight to dvd. A device that no one uses anymore.” (54:52)
• All (consensus Bulls pick): “We all picked the same team... Wow. Yes, that’s wonderful.” (62:12)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• Surprise Teams Definition & History: 04:00–08:00
• Jazz: 09:17–14:29
• Nets: 14:29–20:58
• Wizards: 20:58–25:34
• Hornets: 25:57–31:49
• Pelicans: 32:21–36:46
• Suns: 36:46–41:21
• Bulls: 41:21–44:34
• Portland: 45:37–51:21
• Kings: 51:21–55:36
• Final Picks & Bulls Deep-Dive: 56:38–62:14

Tone & Language

• The discussion is lively, bantery, and irreverent, featuring good-natured ribbing (“This is going to make us look so negative... This is a mean podcast” - Law, 43:04), pointed roster critiques, and lots of dry humor.
• But the basketball analysis is deep—roster construction, incentives, and league trends are examined in detail.

Conclusion

The annual Slam N’ Jam “Surprise Teams” episode offers both diehard and casual fans an entertaining, insightful all-access roundtable. This year’s panel is skeptical that most bottom-feeder teams have break-out potential—except for the Chicago Bulls, who get a unanimous pick to substantially outperform their Vegas lines. The hosts’ in-depth reasoning, concrete stats, and signature banter combine for a fun and information-packed listen.

For trivia and other fun podcast games, see from [64:36] onward in the transcript.