The Athletic NBA Daily | Morning Shoot Around

Episode: "The NBA Contender Pie"

Date: March 25, 2026
Hosts: (Unattributed; likely Dave DuFour and co-host)

Overview

In this lively episode, the hosts break down the contenders for the 2026 NBA title by assigning each team a percentage of the hypothetical "Contender Pie." The goal is to spark an honest and entertaining debate about which NBA teams are true championship threats as the playoffs approach, revealing not just statistical arguments but also gut feelings and imaginative tests ("can you picture this player lifting the trophy?"). The conversation covers both the Eastern and Western Conferences, discusses regular season vs. playoff performance, analyzes key players and X-factors, and sprinkles in the irreverent, food-based banter the show's known for.

Key Discussion Points and Insights

1. Introducing "Contender Pie" (03:08)

• Hosts propose making a pie chart to reflect actual belief in each team’s shot at the championship—a more nuanced take than the usual “contender/pretender” line.
• Casual, humorous start as hosts debate their favorite literal pies before diving into the metaphor.

Notable Quote

• “Maybe we think the Lakers are a contender, but maybe they're only a small sliver of the contender pie.” (03:13)

2. Eastern Conference Contenders (07:53–22:26)

a. The Celtics As the Clear Favorite (08:08)

• Both hosts agree Boston is the “most serious” and “head and shoulders better than everybody else” in the East.
  • Celtics assigned 20% of the contender pie (08:42).

b. Evaluating Other East Teams

• Pistons: Seen as next best, but dependent on Cade Cunningham’s health and lack offensive diversity.
  • Assigned 10% after some debate (13:48, 17:29)
• Knicks & Cavs: Both considered unreliable; highs are high but trust is lacking. Assigned 5% each (17:29).
  • “I just don’t. I just have a hard time. Like, I do this championship test where you close your eyes. It's like, can I imagine Evan Mobley holding up that trophy? I have a hard time imagining it.” (17:43)
• Hornets: Young, streaky, limited experience, but hosts assign them a “shooter’s chance” of 1% (21:20).

c. Play-in Teams and Doubts

• Heat, Sixers, Magic, Raptors, Hawks largely dismissed as true threats.
  • Philadelphia accused of “a sneaky tank” with Embiid’s health uncertain (12:03–12:14).

d. Championship Intangibles

• Light-hearted “close your eyes and imagine X holding the trophy” test to clarify skepticism.
• E.g., can’t picture Tyler Herro or Lamelo Ball as Finals MVP.

3. Western Conference Contenders (22:41–58:12)

a. 1% Longshots

• Rockets, Clippers, Hornets: Each given a 1% “crazy things can happen” slice.
  • “Kawhi Leonard, who has been ridiculous. …You just can't count him out. He's a playoff performer.” (57:40)

b. Ranking the True Threats

Working List (Converging on This Order): (24:24)

• Thunder
• San Antonio Spurs
• Boston (as cross-conference comparison)
• Nuggets
• Wolves
• Lakers

c. Wolves & Nuggets (32:06–43:49)

• Wolves: Impressive but not favored in a match-up with Denver. Assigned 2% (32:26).
• Nuggets: Jokic’s brilliance keeps them relevant, but defensive slippage and health issues cause concern. Assigned 5-10%.
  • “This will be the ultimate test of can One guy win a title, and I just don't know if that's a thing anymore.” (46:17)

d. Lakers & Spurs (47:18–54:37)

• Lakers: Noted for strong clutch play and star power, but haunted by last year’s playoff flop. Assigned 10%.
• Spurs: Wembanyama seen as a possible Best Player in the League already. Major question is whether he can handle playoff minutes and physicality. Assigned 15%.

e. Thunder: The Favorites in the West (34:41–35:33, 55:59–56:04)

• Thunder lauded for improved depth (“way more guys”), development (Isaiah Joe, Jared McCain, A.J. Mitchell), and resilience.
• Both hosts agree they’re the “likely champs,” awarding them 25%—the largest Contender Pie slice.
  • “Yeah, I look, I think the Thunder. The Thunder are the likely champs.” (55:59)

f. Pie Recap (58:24)

• Final tally for “Contender Pie” (59:01):
  • Thunder: 25%
  • Celtics: 20%
  • Spurs, Lakers, Pistons, Nuggets: 10% each
  • Cavs, Knicks: 5% each
  • Wolves: 2%
  • Clippers, Rockets, Hornets: 1% each

g. “Vibes over Math”

• Hosts clarify their pie percentages are driven by instinct, not analytics:
  • “No math involved in this. It’s all vibes.” (59:03)

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• On the “championship test”:
  “I do this championship test where you close your eyes. It’s like, can I imagine Evan Mobley holding up that trophy? I have a hard time imagining it.” (17:43)

• On the Thunder’s transformation:
  “This Thunder team is a lot different than they were last year for sure… They have way more guys.” (34:41)

• On Jokic’s single-handed chances:
  “This will be the ultimate test of can One guy win a title, and I just don't know if that's a thing anymore.” (46:17)

• On Wembanyama’s playoff intrigue:
  "Victor Wembanyama might already be the best player in the league...what he’s doing defensively is something that...breaks the eye test actually." (51:41)

• On the show's methodology:
  “No math involved in this. It’s all vibes.” (59:03)
  “We gotta do this...Just close your eyes. Can you imagine players holding the trophy?” (59:18)

• Final playful tally:
  “Thunder with 25%. Celtics with 20%. ... Clippers, Hornets and Rockets 1% chance to win the NBA title. No math involved in this. It’s all vibes.” (58:24–59:03)

Timestamps for Important Segments

• 03:08 – Intro to the "Contender Pie" concept
• 07:53 – Start of Eastern Conference breakdown
• 08:08 – Boston as the East’s favorite
• 13:48 – Pistons’ playoff viability discussion
• 17:43 – “Championship test”/pie re-adjustment
• 21:20 – Justifying Hornets’ 1% “shooter's chance”
• 22:41 – Start of Western Conference discussion
• 32:06 – Wolves-Nuggets matchup evaluation
• 34:41 – Thunder’s playoff readiness and depth
• 35:33 – Debating if Thunder might repeat
• 43:49 – Nuggets’ playoff path and Jokic’s value
• 51:41 – Wembanyama’s defense and Spurs’ ceiling
• 55:59 – Hosts agree Thunder are "likely champs"
• 58:24 – Contender Pie tally recap
• 59:03 – “All vibes, no math” clarified

Tone & Banter Highlights

• Playful, irreverent food detour at the top (pumpkin vs. pecan pie; dietary preferences; silkworm cocoon stories).
• Sarcastic “boohoo” and self-deprecating asides.
• “Can you picture this guy holding a trophy?” as a running joke and informal evaluation.
• Warm interplay between hosts, mixing dry humor with thoughtful basketball analysis.

Conclusion

This episode is an engaging, opinion-driven, and sometimes whimsical snapshot of NBA title contention as seen by the hosts—melding statistical caution with a healthy dose of gut feeling. The “Contender Pie” offers a dynamic framework for discussing contenders’ strengths, flaws, and intangibles, culminating in a top-heavy forecast: Thunder and Celtics are the teams to beat, with several plausible but less convincing challengers and a handful of true longshots given token "vibes-based" hope.

Recommended for:
Listeners who enjoy fun, accessible but insightful NBA talk blending analytics, locker-room wisdom, and creative tests of belief—and who don’t mind a food metaphor or three along the way.