The Athletic NBA Daily – "Who are the REAL Contenders? | Morning Shoot Around"

Date: December 18, 2025
Hosts: Andrew Schlecht (A), Zena Keita (D), Dave DuFour (C)

Main Theme & Purpose

This episode centers around identifying and analyzing the real contenders in the NBA at the midway point of the 2025-26 season. The hosts revisit their “way too early” preseason conference rankings, debate which teams have lived up to, exceeded, or fallen below expectations, and redefine the true “contender” status in both the East and West, with a keen focus on analytics, roster construction, and team identity.

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Reflections on the NBA Cup and Its Future

Timestamps: 03:26–13:24

• Vegas as the Cup Venue: The crew reflects on the recent NBA Cup in Vegas, praising its execution but questioning whether Vegas provides the ideal atmosphere.
  • "Imagine a whole arena of those Spurs ultras—that would be a fun time. The gap between a good NBA crowd at a home arena versus what we saw is giant." (C, 08:03)
• Neutral Sites vs. Home Arenas: Discuss the pros and cons of keeping the Cup in Vegas, moving to smaller venues, or hosting at "blue blood" college arenas.
  • "I actually like the idea of it being in a smaller arena. I think it’s an interesting experiment." (A, 09:08)
  • "Let’s make it a home game for the fans of the teams... Just give us the extra home night." (C, 10:25)
• Atmosphere Considerations: Suggest bringing in the home team’s arena staff and MCs to boost the atmosphere at neutral sites.
  • "Let the fans feel like they have a connection... Both MCs from both teams. Let’s have like a competition." (D, 12:10)

2. Revisiting Preseason Contender Rankings

Timestamps: 13:29–24:15

• Approach: The team revisits preseason East/West rankings to see what's changed, focusing on which teams are genuine contenders and which have faded.
  • "Who are like the real contenders, you know, and also like, define contender and then who are the real contenders?" (A, 13:53)

Eastern Conference

• Initial Tiers Recap:
  • Contenders: Knicks, Cavs
  • Fringe Contenders: Pistons, Hawks, Magic
  • Dark Horse: Celtics, Sixers, Bucks
  • Play-in: Raptors, Bulls, Heat, Pacers
  • "Loser for Boozer": Wizards, Nets, Hornets
• Major Adjustments:
  • The Cavs have tumbled, no longer seen as contenders.
  • The Bucks’ struggles prompt discussion about falling out of the contender mix.
  • "I think I would put Boston up there. Boston’s been really good... I’m a big believer in point differential as a number to look at when we’re talking about contenders." (A, 19:34)
• Point Differential as a Proxy for Strength:
  • Knicks and Pistons lead the East for point differential and, thus, are strongest contenders, with Boston following.
  • "If you did that, your top six in the East would be Knicks, Pistons, Celtics, Magic, Heat, Raptors." (A, 19:52)

3. Contender Status Debates

Timestamps: 15:22–24:48

• Cavs Crisis: Ongoing struggles, lack of team identity, and questions about internal issues.
  • "Do you guys trust the Cavs in any way? ...They are first-round out right now to me." (C, 21:04)
  • "I think that the league has caught up to these guys in a different way." (C, 25:18)
• Team Identity: Identity and locker-room culture as the litmus test for contender status.
  • "Where’s the identity?" (A, 22:51), reflecting the broader issue with the Cavs.

4. Defining “Real Contenders” in the West

Timestamps: 32:39–55:32

• Initial Tiers Recap:
  • Contenders: OKC, Denver
  • Fringe: Wolves, Rockets, Clippers
  • Dark Horse: Lakers, Warriors
  • Play-in: Blazers, Grizzlies, Mavericks, Spurs
  • Bottom ("Gas Station Sandwiches"): Jazz, Pelicans, Kings, Suns
• Clippers’ Collapse: Reflect on what went wrong despite preseason optimism.
  • "Every move they made backfired. Every single one. John Collins has not worked out for them. Going big has not been good. Zubach has actually been up and down... but every move that they made to improve failed." (C, 36:28)
  • "It’s a big swing, a 12 point swing in the wrong direction for [Harden/Zubats] duo." (A, 38:24)
• Warriors’ Decline: Age and lack of identity hampering performance.
  • "There isn’t an identity. They turn it over way too much... As you mentioned, Dave, the age thing, you want to count on the consistency you’d expect from older players..." (D, 40:56)
• Lakers, Spurs, and Rockets:
  • The Lakers get downgraded: "I just don’t trust a team that has [Ayton] at the center position...The defense stinks." (A, 49:41, 50:58)
  • Spurs and Rockets considered “fringe contenders,” with Spurs' development praised.
• “Guys you cannot count out”: Jokic, Shai, Steph, Luca cited for playoff intangibility (D, 51:33).
  • "Would it be crazy if the Spurs wound up in the Conference Finals? No, I don't think that'd be crazy." (A, 48:43)
• Depth and Two-Way Play: Last year’s postseason lessons: the best teams had defensive depth, supporting limiting the Lakers’ ceiling.

5. Most Notable and Memorable Quotes

On the Cup Atmosphere

• "The difference between a good NBA crowd at a home arena versus what we saw for Thunder-Spurs—the gap is giant." (A, 07:51)
• "Let both MCs from both teams duel it out. Death match in the middle of the court with the NBA cup suspended over the top." (C, 12:45)

Evaluation of Contenders

• "I’m a big believer in point differential... Only two teams have a plus-six, and those are the teams I’d put at contender." (A, 19:34)
• "If you’re relying on Dillon Brooks to create your culture, you have no culture.” (A, 32:30)

On the Cavs’ Downfall

• "Last year, I knew what X, Y, and Z was for them. This year, I’m just kind of like—depends on who they play." (D, 22:52)
• "They’re playing big and somehow get out-bigged." (C, 25:18)

The Clippers’ Failure

• "Every move that they made... backfired. Every single one." (C, 36:28)
• "Their two best players have not played very well so far this season. And a lot of it on the defensive end." (A, 38:47)

The Lakers, Identity, and Roster

• "It’s crazy to put a team with that much [star] power...” (C, 50:53)
• "Their supporting cast is too much of a novelty as opposed to a consistency." (D, 54:15)
• "The Lakers have this stretch in their season that has propped them up quite a bit..." (A, 49:01)

Playoff X-factors

• "Guys you cannot count out—Jokic, Shai, Steph, Luca." (C, 51:33)
• "Depth really matters. The teams that got there with good defensive depth are the ones that were standing there at the end." (A, 52:02)

Timestamps for Key Segments

• NBA Cup Venue Debate: 03:26–13:24
• Eastern Conference Rankings Revisit: 13:29–24:15
• Cavs’ Identity and Future: 15:22–24:48
• Clippers and Warriors Discussion: 32:39–42:24
• Lakers & Contender Criteria in the West: 45:00–54:43
• Recap and Lessons Learned: 54:43–55:32

Tone & Language

The hosts keep a conversational, witty, sometimes teasing tone, staying analytical but mixing in humor and sarcasm (gas station sandwiches, MC death matches, fake Steph trades).

Takeaways for Listeners

• Real contenders are as much about depth, identity, and current performance as star power and preseason reputation.
• Cavs and Clippers are case studies in how quickly contender status can evaporate.
• Use of analytics: Point differential cited as a more reliable indicator of strength than mere win/loss record.
• Atmosphere matters: For new tournaments like the NBA Cup, fan engagement and venue selection impact legitimacy.
• Playoff success demands more than stars—two-way players and consistency are vital.

This summary covers the main arguments, insights, and memorable exchanges, giving non-listeners a full grasp of the pod’s themes, debates, and conclusions.