Recently, I was on a Zoom call with some of my Substack subscribers.

We were processing our own miniature State of the Union, which at the time we deemed somewhere between sky-is-falling and Armageddon.

The conversation (which, as you can imagine, was decidedly nihilistic) turned toward the suggested bright spot found in the prospect of some of Trump supporters finally being roused from the ten-year stupor of their cultic adoration enough to see with lucid assessment that they have tethered themselves to a monster.

Some suggested with tentative optimism that after a confounding, infuriating decade of sycophantic devotion, they might put aside their fierce tribalism and join the rest of the reasonable people in opposing this rapidly unfolding coup.

At first, I co-signed such a possibility as a sign of hope, but quickly realized that it was misplaced optimism. That’s probably not what we’re going to see at all.

The fact of the matter is, with very few exceptions, people who voted for Trump in 2024 (many for the third time) and who do begin to come around enough to move them to action, will not have had their humanity awakened watching his and his Administration’s illegal weaponizing of I.C.E. against immigrants, both documented and undocumented.

They will not have tapped into heretofore unaccessed reservoirs of compassion for LGBTQ people facing unlawful and unprovoked legislative and personal attacks by his surrogates in Congress, school board meetings, and in the streets.

They will not have had their hearts broken by the abject horrors of the Epstein Files and moved to demand the unredacted contents be revealed so that accountability for every monster and justice for every survivor would come.

They will not have had some kind of miraculous Road to Emmaus spiritual awakening, realizing how many ways Trump has already violated the poor, withheld food from the hungry, visited injury on already suffering people, or urinated on the teachings of Jesus.

They will not be overtaken by some newfound responsibility as global citizens and feel a sudden rush of affinity for the persecuted people of Ukraine, or Gaza, or Iran, or Cuba.

No, the moment that will trigger any kind of oppositional response to Trump by Trump supporters is when the pain becomes personal.

As they abruptly lose their jobs, see their companies move overseas, watch their 401(k)s evaporate, reckon with the skyrocketing grocery and gas prices, find their own voices silenced, see their healthcare options dissolve, they will miraculously find themselves becoming the resistance.

Their rebellion will not be born out of true contrition for their damaging alliances, or genuine regret for being complicit in empowering a fascist, or a sincere desire to partner with the disparate human beings already united in saving our Republic and our planet.

When MAGA Americans finally realize that they, too, are victims of the criminality and predation they initially hoped would only be for those despised others (the immigrant, the gay, the brown, the black, the woke, the blue staters), then it will be a bridge too far. When their feet are finally put to the fire they wished upon so many others, suddenly immorality and overreach will be objectionable.

The moment they are jarred awake by the sobering truth that their whiteness and their party affiliation and their church attendance and their red hats won’t save them from the disaster they have helped create, then and only then will they care in the slightest bit.

I’d like to be wrong but sadly, I don’t believe I will be.

And though it will still be a small consolation to see a larger swath of this nation find out that this president’s sociopathy will spare no one, it would have been nice if they’d been internally transformed by love for their fellow human beings instead of just for themselves.

The real victory would have been if they’d been moved by self-examination and not just self-preservation.

I could have celebrated their empathy but I can’t celebrate their selfishness.

The Beautiful Mess by John Pavlovitz is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit johnpavlovitz.substack.com/subscribe