This Reporter Can Tell Us What Nuclear Apocalypse Looks Like

Summary

Podcast Summary: The Book Review – "This Reporter Can Tell Us What Nuclear Apocalypse Looks Like"

Episode Title: This Reporter Can Tell Us What Nuclear Apocalypse Looks Like
Host: Gilbert Cruz, Editor of the New York Times Book Review
Guest: Annie Jacobson, Author of Nuclear War A Scenario
Release Date: August 8, 2025

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Introduction

In this gripping episode of The Book Review Podcast, host Gilbert Cruz engages in a profound conversation with Annie Jacobson, the author of Nuclear War A Scenario. As the world approaches the 80th anniversary of the Hiroshima and Nagasaki bombings, Jacobson presents a harrowing yet meticulously researched exploration of nuclear apocalypse, shedding light on the terrifying realities of modern nuclear warfare.

The Genesis and Structure of the Book

Annie Jacobson recounts her discovery of Nuclear War A Scenario in a Chicago bookstore, describing the immediate compulsion to purchase and delve into its pages. Jacobson explains the book’s unique structure, which meticulously breaks down nuclear war into three 24-minute segments, capturing the swift and catastrophic unfolding of events.

Notable Quote:

“Nuclear war, if it happens, will unfold in seconds and minutes, not in days and weeks.”
— Annie Jacobson [05:04]

This approach allows readers to grasp the rapid progression from the initial missile launch to global annihilation, emphasizing the lack of time for strategy or dissent.

Initiation of the Nuclear Scenario

Jacobson outlines the book’s central premise—a sudden, unprovoked attack initiated by North Korea. Drawing from interviews with top military advisors like Richard Garwin and Andy Weber, she illustrates how a "bolt from the blue" missile strike against Washington, D.C., could trigger an irreversible chain reaction of nuclear exchanges.

Notable Quote:

“There is no room for human thinking when it comes down to push button warfare.”
— Annie Jacobson [34:17]

This underscores the automated and devastating nature of nuclear retaliations, where human discretion is virtually nonexistent.

Historical Context and Deterrence Theory

The conversation delves into the evolution of nuclear strategy, transitioning from Cold War-era beliefs that nuclear war could be winnable to the modern understanding of deterrence—a precarious balance maintained by mutually assured destruction. Jacobson highlights the proliferation of nuclear-armed nations, increasing the global risk.

Notable Quote:

“The greatest movements toward non-proliferation have come from regular people like us saying, this is insanity.”
— Annie Jacobson [19:50]

She emphasizes that public awareness and grassroots movements are crucial in advocating for nuclear disarmament.

The President’s Role and the "Football"

A significant portion of the discussion centers on the immense responsibility vested in the President of the United States concerning nuclear launch authority. Jacobson explains the concept of the "football"—a briefcase containing launch orders that the President must carry at all times.

Notable Quote:

“The President has sole presidential authority... there is no time to ask permission.”
— Annie Jacobson [27:48]

Jacobson reveals insights from high-ranking officials, illustrating the President’s often insufficient preparation and the inherent dangers of centralized nuclear command.

Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) and Modern Threats

Jacobson introduces the concept of an EMP attack, detailing how a nuclear detonation high in the atmosphere could cripple the entire U.S. power grid, leading to widespread chaos and the collapse of essential infrastructure.

Notable Quote:

“If small nuclear weapons were to be deployed, exploded 300 miles above... the entire power grid would go down permanently.”
— Annie Jacobson [36:20]

This scenario highlights an additional layer of devastation beyond the immediate blast effects, exacerbating the humanitarian crisis.

Moral and Ethical Implications

The podcast touches on the moral dilemmas faced by those in the nuclear command chain. Jacobson shares anecdotes from her sources, including former Secretary of Defense Bill Perry, who grappled with the ethical weight of potentially initiating nuclear war.

Notable Quote:

“Nuclear war is insane.”
— Annie Jacobson [45:20]

This sentiment reinforces the futility and moral bankruptcy of nuclear conflict, advocating for urgent disarmament efforts.

Public Perception and Cultural Reflections

Jacobson connects her work with contemporary cultural reflections, such as the release of the Oppenheimer movie, which has reignited public discourse on nuclear weapons. She underscores the importance of narrative storytelling in shaping societal understanding and policy.

Notable Quote:

“Looking straight at something is the way to solve the problem.”
— Annie Jacobson [42:50]

By confronting nuclear issues head-on, Jacobson believes society can mobilize towards meaningful action against proliferation.

Hope and Non-Proliferation Efforts

Concluding on a hopeful note, Jacobson highlights ongoing non-proliferation initiatives, including the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW). She expresses optimism that collective efforts can lead to the reduction and eventual elimination of nuclear arsenals.

Notable Quote:

“The idea behind the TPNW is that the only way to ensure that nuclear war doesn't happen is to reduce these arsenals.”
— Annie Jacobson [45:36]

Conclusion

This episode of The Book Review Podcast offers a stark and sobering examination of nuclear warfare, meticulously presented through Annie Jacobson’s Nuclear War A Scenario. Cruz and Jacobson’s conversation serves as a crucial reminder of the existential threats posed by nuclear weapons and the imperative for continued advocacy towards disarmament. By blending personal storytelling with rigorous research, the podcast effectively communicates the urgent need for global action to avert nuclear catastrophe.

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For more insightful discussions and book reviews, subscribe to the New York Times podcasts on nytimes.com/podcasts or available platforms like Apple Podcasts and Spotify.

Transcript

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[Gilbert Cruz]

I'm Gilbert Cruz, editor of the New York Times Book Review, and this is the Book Review Podcast. Recently I was in Chicago, a city I had not visited in many years, and I came across a wonderful bookstore called Exile, and in Bookville. The name's a riff, of course, on the Liz Phair album Exile in Guyville. Cool story, very nice lighting situation, good music on the record player actually went twice. And the second time I went to Exile in Bookville, I saw a volume on the shelf. It was titled simply Nuclear War A Scenario. I remembered this book. It came out last year. We reviewed it positively at the Book Review. So I picked it up. I read the first page, and I immediately had to buy it. The opening pages were scary and gripping and written with such detail about one of the worst things imaginable, a thermonuclear attack on Washington, D.C. that starts a terrible chain reaction of thousands of nuclear missiles flying across the globe. This week, as we approach the 80th anniversary of the nuclear bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, I have on the show Annie Jacobson, author of Nuclear A Scenario, to talk about her book, which deep minute by minute and even in some places, second by second, how the World Might End, A cheery August episode. Andy, welcome to the show.

[Annie Jacobson]

Thank you for having me.

[Gilbert Cruz]

Now, I was really shook by this book. I imagine many people have been. How many people, roughly, have told you that this is one of the more terrifying books that they've ever read?

[Annie Jacobson]

I think almost everyone.

[Gilbert Cruz]

And why do you think they have that reaction?

[Annie Jacobson]

Perhaps I did my job. I wanted to write a book that showed in absolutely appalling detail how horrific nuclear war would be. And so when people say to me, either I could barely read your book, but I had to read it, or I had to read it in one sitting, I was terrified. I was horrified. I believe, aha. I did my job.

[Gilbert Cruz]

Now you structure the book in an ingenious way. I think I briefly alluded to it. You have three parts, essentially, in the book. They're 24 minutes each. And in each of those parts, each of these sections, you have little pieces that are short or long. And they say 14 minutes, 27 minutes, 40 minutes and 30 seconds. And that means it's been 14 minutes since the first nuclear missile was launched. And this is what is happening here. And this is what is happening over here. Why did you write it that way? And more importantly, when did you realize that that was the way that this book had to be written?

[Annie Jacobson]

I think every journalist has this moment when they're reporting a book where they go, aha. Also called Mic Drop, where you realize the answer to your question, which is, how am I gonna structure this? And at the same time, how does it end? And that's the gift of the journalist, for the journalist, if you have that moment. And for me, it was in an interview with the former commander of StratCom, that stands for U.S. strategic Command, the steward of all nuclear weapons and all nuclear weapon systems. And doing this interview with General Keillor, I cut right to the point in one of our discussions and said what would happen in a full scale nuclear exchange with Russia. And without hesitation, he said to me, annie, the world could end in the next couple of hours. And I knew right there that was the way to tell the story. Because no one is more of an authority than the STRATCOM commander, arguably even more so than the President of the United States. We can get into the reasons why I believe that's true. But then you have it. You realize, my God, nuclear war, if it happens, will unfold in seconds and minutes, not in days and weeks.

[Gilbert Cruz]

That was one of the most striking things about the book. You titled your book Nuclear War. We think of it as nuclear war, but it's not really a war. It's over before it begins. There are no battles. There's no time to really think strategy. As you put in this particular scenario, a little over an hour passes, and the world is essentially on its way to being over.

[Annie Jacobson]

That's right. And so much of the literature that exists, both fiction and nonfiction, and, of course, journalists. My notes are full of references to all of the people who influence my work and to whom I'm deeply grateful. But the body of literature, I believe, always talks about these long thought out or short thought out, but nonetheless thought out situations. And the point, I think, that gets across loud and clear and fast and with horror in nuclear war scenario is that there is no room to think. It is simply automated by the minute. A rogue nation or an adversary, a nuclear armed power launches a strategic weapon at the United States, that is when nuclear war begin and it doesn't end until nuclear Armageddon.

[Gilbert Cruz]

Now, there are many scenarios that could happen. I want you to tell us, without going through the whole book, what sets off your particular scenario here. It's a very specific thought exercise. And it starts in North Korea.

[Annie Jacobson]

That's right. And for this how does one start Idea, I interviewed dozens of individuals who are presidential level advisors, scientists, spies, Secret service, all the people who are in this command and control system, if you will. And I asked many of them. The question you're asking me, wondering what is Washington afraid of most and when the same answer came from two of the highest ranking individuals with the most knowledge on nuclear command and control. That would be Richard Garwin, who drew the plans for the world's first thermonuclear weapon and advised every president on nuclear weapons since Eisenhower. And the more modern expert Andy Weber, who was the Assistant Secretary of Defense and top advisor to President Obama on nuclear weapons. And both of them told me that it was a bolt out of the blue attack against Washington that Washington fears most. And that made the most sense to me coming from North Korea.

[Gilbert Cruz]

Now, what is a bolt out of the blue? I feel like it's in the name there. It's something that is unexpected. There's no communications beforehand. It just happens. And what happens, there's no taking it back. You start here in your book by imagining that there is, as you put it, maybe as others have put it, a mad king in North Korea who essentially decides to shoot an ICBM directed at Washington, directed at the Pentagon. No one knows why and no one will ever find out why.

[Annie Jacobson]

That's right. And to your point about the bolt out of the blue attack, what I found incredibly interesting, and I think what readers really relate to is, believe it or not, nuclear war is pretty easy to follow, at least the way I was able to describe it from my sources, because so much of it is, like you said, bolt out of the blue. That's exactly like it sounds. Well, it is other policies that America has, like launch on warning. What could that be? It's exactly like it sounds. Somebody launches on us, we launch. When we get the warning, we do not wait to absorb a nuclear blow. And it's in piecing together all these little euphemisms or colloquialisms that you realize this system only works one way. And like I have said, and I cannot repeat enough times, it only ends one way, and that is in total nuclear annihilation. And by the way, that is from every Source that I spoke with from General Keillor on down believes that if nuclear war were to happen, that's it. That's the end of the civilization as we know it.

[Gilbert Cruz]

And as you write here, nuclear war doesn't necessarily need to be one nation with which we have relations. Launching multiple missiles at our mainland after failed negotiations in some way. It can be as simple as North Korea, which we know very little about. Although you, through many sources, try to piece together everything that we know about North Korea in relation to nuclear weapons. We get the warning here in the United States. And as you say, it's all on rails. In a sense. Everyone knows what to do. No one has time for dissent. No one would even think about dissent. But there's still a lot of chaos involved. What did you discover was the most surprising or chaotic aspects of the first 24 minutes, let's say after we discover that there is an ICBM headed towards the United States.

[Annie Jacobson]

One of the things you learn right off the bat when you read the book is that an icbm, that is an intercontinental ballistic missile, it travels from one continent to the other. Like it sounds, it takes approximately 33 minutes to get here. It cannot be redirected and it cannot be recalled. And when you keep that at the front of your mind, when you realize all this, coupled with the radical technology that the United States Defense Department has and has developed since World War II to be able to look at enemies who might want to launch on the United States, that's called our early warning system. We can see the launch of an ICBM across the world in the first second after it launches. And so there begins the ordered part of what is absolutely mad chaos once the bombs start striking. And of course, the book is divided up into these three different sections. The first 24 minutes, the next 24 minutes, the last 24 minutes. And that is because a series of requirements, if you will, the command and control protocols that move into position as these events are happening are unstoppable.

[Gilbert Cruz]

What is command and control? Again, it might be as obvious as it sounds, because apparently everything is as obvious as it sounds. But what does it actually mean?

[Annie Jacobson]

It is as obvious. It's how do you command the arsenal and control the arsenal? But here's another one. It's actually command, control and communicate, because there is all kinds of communication going on. But again, it's one way communication. There are no conversations like, hey, what do you guys think? Or even more formal like, sir, should we do? Even down to the counter attack launch order, which lives inside the football that emergency satchel that goes around with the President. Everyone is interested in the football because it's one of the few visuals behind the veil.

[Gilbert Cruz]

When you say this thing, we could see the launch of a missile across the world in the first second. That's great. I'm glad we have all this wonderful technology, but it doesn't sound like there's anything we can do about it. You can see it, you can track it, but you can't shoot it down. You can't do anything. That is the most disturbing part to me. There are lots of parts to your book that are disturbing. You've wrote a wonderfully disturbing book. Congratulations. But that part is like, well, we have all the technology in the world, we can see all these wonderful heat flashes, and it's all for nothing.

[Annie Jacobson]

You're absolutely right. We have all this technology, and yet it only leads in one direction, and that is toward all out nuclear war. If the United States is involved in nuclear war, it ends in full scale nuclear exchange. And why I chose North Korea was because I wanted to also show how one misunderstanding or one miscalculation will almost certainly lead to a series of other complex events that result in the launch of more nuclear weapons. And this goes back to that kind of ordered reality that leads to the chaos.

[Gilbert Cruz]

How did this ordered reality come to be? How did this develop? It seemed like, according to your book, there once was a time when it was more piecemeal. Every branch of the military, if I'm recalling correctly, in early days, had their own arsenal or had their own plan. And it was really fractured in terms of the United States nuclear collection. And then that changed.

[Annie Jacobson]

That's right. So many excellent books have been written on the history of nuclear weapons. And I wanted to condense all of them down into a very short section, which I did at the beginning, before launch actually occurs, to demonstrate what I thought were the most critical points for just the average reader to understand. And among that is precisely what you referenced, which is, how did we get here? How did we get here? And I think the key takeaway from all of that, which is just astonishing, is that in the early days of the Cold War, I'm talking about the 1950s nuclear war. The idea was that nuclear war could be fought and won. That is what is so crazy about all of this. And so I show very quickly the plans that the generals had in place to win nuclear war, which is impossible and ridiculous. And so it was just very strange, Lovian, if you will. And then along came the 60s and the 70s when people realized Actually, we can never win a nuclear war. And so this new idea emerged of deterrence, which is we can never have a nuclear war. So we'll just have a bunch of nuclear weapons pointed at the other side. They will have them pointed at us. And we will all accept that we will never use them because it would be madness, because nuclear war can never be won. And that is this again, that razor's edge upon which we all must live, coupled by the fact that in the days where all of this began, there was simply two nuclear superpowers, the United States and the Soviet Union. Now there are nine nuclear armed nations. So those numbers alone ratchet up the danger.

[Gilbert Cruz]

So how are we all still alive? How does this not happen yet?

[Annie Jacobson]

And that is the great conundrum. And you will have, I think, the only people who really want to have a debate with me about this. Lots of people have lots of questions like, wait, how is that true? How is that true? How is that true? But the people who really, and there are very few of them, by the way, they actually believe deterrence will hold. They say it's worked for 80 years, so it will. Or rather, the Soviets got the bomb in 1949. They've said it's worked all these decades, so it's going to continue working. But I have found certainly in my reporting that has really become more of a whistling by the graveyard idea than truth. And that is why I believe so many of these high positioned presidential advisors of the Cold War warriors, if you will, who dedicated their lives to nuclear command and control, now in their 80s, and some of them in their 90s, have second thoughts and say, this is madness and we must come back from the brink.

[Gilbert Cruz]

It is an interesting time to have published this book again. This book came out last year and I know a ton of people who have read it. We reviewed it very well here at the Book Review. I do think that in part, people associate nuclear war still with the Cold War. And it's not something that is at the top of our minds in the way that it used to be in the 50s, 60s, the 80s, when there were all these talks about disarmament. It's not in the public consciousness in.

[Annie Jacobson]

The same way I have had people at my book signing say thank you so much for writing this book, and then whisper to me, I didn't think we still had nuclear weapons. And that's not uncommon.

[Gilbert Cruz]

Oh boy.

[Annie Jacobson]

But it is not uncommon. And I also had the privilege of speaking at the United nations to an audience of people who are essentially the subject matter Experts of nuclear weapons in the world. And they paid me a very interesting compliment which I think is important to this discussion we're having. They said, annie, you remembered to actually speak to regular people about nuclear weapons. And I consider myself a regular person, meaning the esoteria involved in nuclear non proliferation. There's all kinds of complicated terms and nomenclature and it freaks a lot of people out and it feels, it makes them feel, I have learned, as if they're not welcome to, to join the conversation. And yet the greatest movements that have taken place toward non proliferation and that is reducing these arsenals, these ridiculous numbers of warheads that are on the planet and threaten all of us, the biggest actions toward that reduction have come from people. There have been movements over the decades where people have gotten together, regular people like us and said, this is insanity. Why do we have this many nuclear weapons?

[Gilbert Cruz]

How many nuclear weapons are we talking about?

[Annie Jacobson]

So today on the planet there are about 12,300 nuclear weapons. Russia and the United States have approximately 10,000 of them. But even more threatening are the number of warheads that are on what is called ready for launch status. And I don't think many people are aware of this. And it's why nuclear war happens in seconds and minutes, not in days and weeks. And that is because ready for launch status also means hair trigger alert. Some of them can be launched in as little as 60 seconds and America has about 1,700 of them and Russia has about the same number. Imagine all those warheads and ask yourself, are they really all necessary?

[Gilbert Cruz]

I would say no, I think you would agree. But others seem to disagree.

[Annie Jacobson]

Well, let's talk progress because you have to, because otherwise this is a grim and depressing subject. And it.

[Gilbert Cruz]

Yeah, please give me some light here.

[Annie Jacobson]

Okay. Well, it is easier to simply say, okay, deterrence will hold. That's the shortcut argument that a lot of people have when they say, when they look at the world today and they say, thank God we have nuclear weapons or otherwise fill in the blank. But I like to look back to the Reagan era because Reagan was of course a nuclear hawk when he took office and he really believed that more nuclear weapons made America more safe. And one night he was watching ABC television movie called the Day After. It envisioned a nuclear war between Russia and the United States and it terrified him. He wrote in his White House journal that he became depressed and because of that he reached out to the arch enemy, the twirling mustache bad guy that was the Soviet Union in the early 80s. He reached out and because of his Discussions with Gorbachev and the treaties that came as a result, the world has gone from the all time high in 1986 of 70,000 nuclear weapons to the 12,300 approximate that we have today. That is progress. That is the direction in which I believe we should move.

[Gilbert Cruz]

You're absolutely right. Mathematically that is progress. However, if I'm reading your book correctly, I don't know, it only took like 12 to destroy most of civilization here.

[Annie Jacobson]

Well, you see what happens when one 1 megaton thermonuclear weapon strikes Washington D.C. that is how I begin the book. That is the bolt out of the blue attack and that is what the United States responds to.

[Gilbert Cruz]

I want to talk about that because before you get into the history and then you break it down minute by minute, you do have this again, terrifying not to overuse that word by will, scene of what happens when this thermonuclear warhead that was in this ICBM that has been launched from North Korea, hits Washington, destroys the Pentagon, has the heat of thousands of suns. However, more precisely you put it, the amount of detail that you have in that brief section and across the entire book about what will be destroyed, how it will be destroyed, specifically what landmarks and places that you know will be destroyed, how it will feel to have radiation burns and radiation sickness and what will happen to your body, all of this incredible horrifying detail that is as far as the effect of the book goes, both overwhelming and necessary. Because it feels like it's only in the accretion of those details that you can get across. As you say to the average reader, just how all consuming something like this would be. Again, a question about the process. How did you know when to dial up or when to dial back or how much was too much and that sort of thing.

[Annie Jacobson]

For starters, can you believe that all of those facts are not from Annie Jacobson's imagination? They are actually in Defense Department monographs, U.S. army manuals, scientific journals. Because starting with the effects that the atomic bombs had on humans after the bombings in Hiroshima and Nagasaki, the Defense Department began to collect information about precisely what you just talked about. The effect of atomic weapons and then thermonuclear weapons on people, places and things. And so the entire time we were doing atomic testing, atmospheric testing, thermonuclear testing in the Marshall Islands and out in Nevada, all of this was being chronicled. Pigs were being subjected to nuclear bombs at different distances. That is how we got measurements of skin. This is horrible. And fact finding, fact facing details. How did I decide what to include. I am someone who will look at all of it.

[Gilbert Cruz]

We'll be right back.

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[Juliette]

Hi, I'm Juliette.

[Annie Jacobson]

I'm Joelle.

[Gilbert Cruz]

We're from the New York Times Games.

[Juliette]

Team and we're here talking to fans about our games.

[Gilbert Cruz]

What's your vibe when you're playing one of our games?

[Juliette]

It makes me feel like I'm procrastinating in a really productive. It just scratches an itch in my brain. We have a routine. I'm doing long distance with my boyfriend. We'll call every night and share our screen. We do connections, the mini and then strands, always in that order. Aw, do you have a favorite? The mini. We try and get it under 30 seconds. We rarely get it under 30, but that's always the goal.

[Gilbert Cruz]

Folks will really time themselves.

[Annie Jacobson]

But with spelling bee, I give myself all day.

[Juliette]

I play it when my kids are going to be. Do you guys play together? My daughter plays.

[Gilbert Cruz]

She likes playing wordle.

[Juliette]

If you ever miss a day, there's also archives. That's so great to know. And you have it for connections as well. Lord help me, I'm just gonna be doing that all day, every day. New York Times Games subscribers get full access to all our games and features.

[Annie Jacobson]

Subscribe [e-mail] games for a special offer.

[Gilbert Cruz]

Welcome back. This is the book review podcast and I'm Gilbert Cruz. I'm here with Annie Jacobson, author of Nuclear A Scenario. One of the things you have alluded to is the way in which the President of the United States, whomever that may be, is in control of one of the most vast and powerful collection of weaponry that has ever existed on this earth. And that person maybe doesn't really understand that, doesn't know what to do, wouldn't know what to do if the moment were to arise where they had to open that briefcase, that football that we've seen on so many movies and TV shows and pick from a poo poo platter of nuclear options. Tell us about the football and then tell us about what it means to be the president, how this person got all this power, and why the hell are they not trained on this every month?

[Annie Jacobson]

I mean, I'm going To start with the last part, because that was surprising to even me. And that comes from, for example, interviewing former Secretary of Defense Bill Perry. He first opened the door to that concept with me, was that the President is essentially unprepared. Why? Because most presidents believe they will never have to deal with the nuclear issue. Former Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta confirmed that same concept, and we had a discussion about it. What was even more interesting about talking to Panetta was the fact that before he was Secretary of Defense, he had also been. Well, he was also the CIA director, and then before that, he was President Clinton's White House Chief of staff. And so he had a different take that was less like scolding or finger wagging at the President for not understanding all of this, but rather explaining how these positions require so much focus and intensity and knowledge and learning and mastery, in essence, that you have to focus on the job at hand. And he said it wasn't until he became Secretary of Defense and he went around to the missile silos and he visited the submarines and he saw the weapon systems themselves, that he would be the one that would be giving the advice to the President about what to do, that he realized the incredible responsibility of all this.

[Gilbert Cruz]

What would the President's responsibility be? In the scenario that you laid out.

[Annie Jacobson]

In your book, the President has what is called sole presidential authority. And again, it's exactly like it sounds. And you might think, well, in a democracy, how could that possibly be true? If you declare war, you have to go to Congress. But that the exception to that is nuclear war, because it happens in seconds and minutes. There's no time to go to Congress. The President doesn't need to ask permission of anyone, not his Secretary of Defense, not the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and certainly not Congress. And that is why he walks around, or rather his military aide walks around behind him or her, the President of the United States with this satchel called the emergency satchel, colloquially known as the football. And inside of that there is, in essence, you referred to it like kind of a Denny's menu type sheeted document from which the President chooses the nuclear counterattack dependent upon who it is that launched on us. And so this has all been predetermined. And one of the most frightening things about reporting that was trying to understand about the Black book. That's what it's called. And it's called the Black Book because it involves so much death. That's the nickname for it, if you will. And of course, that's classified. So I spoke to people who were privy to that. They can't share classified information. But one person who worked on that was Ted Postol, who was the advisor to the senior advisor to the Navy in the 1980s. He's now a professor emeritus at MIT. And he explained to me in general terms what scared him most, which scares me, which is that there is no way a president would really have any sense of what he's targeting and who he's killing.

[Gilbert Cruz]

Well, there's a moment, I hate to use the word spoiler in relation to this book, but it really has incredible narratives. So I don't want to necessarily give it all away, but there is a moment in which someone in the chain of command in the United States government in your scenario, at least briefly, thinks, well, maybe we're already dead. What is the point? What is the value in launching all these missiles to kill people in this other country that haven't done anything wrong, that aren't responsible for the actions of their leaders? And that thought is brushed away almost, almost instantly. There's no room for morality almost or anything that approaches an accounting of individual human lives or even human lives in aggregate in a scenario like this.

[Annie Jacobson]

And for that I looked to the conversations I had with former Secretary of Defense Bill Perry, because he wanted to talk about that, specifically this idea of morality, this idea that the system, the command and control nuclear system is set up, that you launch and the reason you launch is because you know the other side is going to launch at you and essentially your missiles are in the air at the same time. It's inherent in the concept of deterrent because it keeps anybody from launching because you say, if you launch on us, we will launch on you. And the point that you raise is exactly, I think, a query in everyone's mind of, okay, but what if someone had a crisis of conscience? And that is what Bill Perry had the luxury of thinking about, if you will, in his 90s as a grandparent wondering about the fate of the world in the God awful chance that there was a nuclear war, what would he do? Because he had been in that position of power, not as the President, but as the SecDef. And what he said is almost certainly, if the President chose to stay in Washington, they would almost certainly be killed. He, as Secretary of Defense would have gotten out of the Pentagon, gone quickly to one of the nuclear bunkers, and maybe because of the chain of command, would now be in control because everyone in the line of succession might be killed. And that is why I take the reader through that thinking. And if you look in the notes you can always find in the narrative where I'm getting the kind of mental thought process from whoever it may be, the SecDef or the Secret Service agent or whatnot. And I was fascinated by that and also by Bill Perry's concession that he.

[Gilbert Cruz]

Would be overrided just because it would be assumed that he was not in his right mind. Because there is a way that this is supposed to work.

[Annie Jacobson]

And I think you have to take the idea of right mind out of that sentence because it is irrational, it is a system, and so there is not an opportunity for human thinking when it comes down to push button warfare. It's a cliche, but it's true.

[Gilbert Cruz]

You are a journalist, appropriately so. You, in this conversation, keep referring to the sources that you drew from. And I wonder, because there is something in part somewhat novelistic about this. You're imagining thought processes and stuff like that. Were you concerned and do you remain concerned, which is why you keep going back to the sources with the idea that some might say you are embellishing, elaborating. You're like, no, no, no, no. This is all based on reporting that.

[Annie Jacobson]

I have done, the way in which I sourced the book. And again, you can go to the notes. Readers can make their own decision about words like embellishing, flowering things up if you. But what I was really more concerned about, which I think you're always concerned about as a reporter or just as a human, the phrase, the sort of zeitgeisty phrase is fear mongering. And that gave me a tinge of pause. But readers get to read the book and decide for themselves what they think about nuclear weapons.

[Gilbert Cruz]

Something that I have never thought about, but that also terrified me in a different way, was a scenario that you describe that is part of this attack on the United States involving an electromagnetic pulse. I think on its own sounds like it would be terrible, but as part of this whole situation, it's pretty devastating. It's sort of this coup de grace. It's an EMP goes off over the United States in space, I can't remember how. Low atmosphere, high atmosphere, what it is, takes out all electronics across the country.

[Annie Jacobson]

So the threat of the EMP is very simple and horrifying indeed. If small nuclear weapon were to be deployed, exploded 300 miles above, let's say, Nebraska, meaning right in the middle of the United States, the entire power grid would go down permanently. It's that simple. It's not debatable. And of course, I've worked with people like General Twohill, who was America's first cyber chief, and Richard Garwin, who wrote the first paper on emp, and all kinds of people in between. And this is one of those behind the veil threats that people didn't really want to talk about before. And I just decided to write about it because these are just the facts, ma'. Am. Because it had been politicized during the Bush Cheney era because it was associated with the war on terror. You can read about that in the notes. I think the controversy doesn't matter, but it does point to the reasons why I think a lot of journalists were afraid to write about it because the issue of the EMP was politicized. But as becomes clear in my book, it should not be politicized because these are just the facts. And again, I take reader through the facts of what happens if the grid goes down. And that is the kind of all is lost moment of the third act, where everything is already lost. And you just when you think it can't get any worse, it does. But I think on balance, what it points out is that there are many existential threats tied to nuclear weapons and nuclear use, all of which must be looked at as an aggregate of, again, why non proliferation. The reduction of these massive arsenals is the way to go.

[Gilbert Cruz]

As you alluded to several minutes ago, you've written several books on the American military and intelligence apparatus. And I'm wondering, why does this interest you? Why does this continue to interest you? And what have you learned about the difficulties of reporting in this particular space?

[Annie Jacobson]

All of my previous books report on the CIA and the Pentagon. 100 or more people per book, that's 600 plus sources. Imagine how many of those individuals fought in various battles. I can tell you all of them from World War II to the present. And how many of them relayed to me these extraordinary violent missions that are complex morally and just horrific stories. And invariably I would end up asking a source that I worked with at length, why did you do what you did? And that's of course the short version of a much longer and more important conversation, but you get the idea. And the answer was almost always the same. I did what I did to prevent nuclear World War three.

[Gilbert Cruz]

This is an awful question. I mean, the question is an awful, but the implications are awful. But you have the sentence that reads, survivors who inevitably emerge from the bunkers. I don't remember what bunkers you're talking about, will face what Nikita Khrushchev foresaw when he said the survivors will envy the dead, which made me turn to my wife I think shortly after and said, I just hope we're taken out immediately. I don't want to be around to see what happens after. Why will survivors envy the dead?

[Annie Jacobson]

The final part of the book is Nuclear Winter and that is based on the incredible work of Carl Sagan and four other scientists who reported that theory initially in the early 80s. Professor Brian Toon was one of the original five. He was Sagan's student. He's still alive. He's written about this at length with others and in interviewing him and him taking me through how modern day computational systems have been able to demonstrate that the original theory of nuclear winter is actually far worse, that the warming rays of the sun will be blotted out. And so anyone who managed to survive the full scale nuclear exchange will in essence starve to death and all other kinds of horrific byproducts of fires, burning, radiation, etc. Etc. And that is why the Nikita Khrushchev quote rang so true to me. Because in essence, man will return to a hunter gatherer state.

[Gilbert Cruz]

We're talking 80 years after the US dropped Fat Man, Little Boy on Japan. And I am curious, we're a couple years now after this massive movie phenomenon. Oppenheimer won best picture, made over a billion dollars. I'm curious how you think that is positioned or repositioned or just re inflamed along with your book. The public's thinking about nuclear bombs. That was just such a surprise in many ways that so many people would want to go watch a three hour movie about the development of this terrible weapon.

[Annie Jacobson]

I think that narrative storytelling is just one of the most powerful components of being a human certainly is for me. And so the fact that the Oppenheimer movie made so many people think about nuclear weapons in a manner that they hadn't been thinking about them before, I think only adds to this bigger conversation. I myself am about to go to Hiroshima as a speaker with the Habaksha who are the survivors of the people who are still alive who survived the Nagasaki and the Hiroshima bombings.

[Gilbert Cruz]

Wow.

[Annie Jacobson]

And these individuals have dedicated their lives to bringing this message to the world. A message of hope and of peace. A message that this happened once and it doesn't need to ever happen again, but we shouldn't look away. I think looking straight at something is the way to solve the problem.

[Gilbert Cruz]

Since publication, have you heard from anyone in the military or the intelligence community, what have the reactions been?

[Annie Jacobson]

This book, more so than any book I have written, has been embraced by high ranking people in nuclear command and control to the degree that I did not expect. Perhaps the most surprising for me was to be invited by the commander of all US forces in Korea, where much of the book takes place. And the commander there asked me to come speak to the troops on nuclear war. And I was so surprised, I was literally tongue tied. What can I add? And I've echoed this before, but he said, you make the threat of nuclear weapons very simple and sometimes people forget that, including our own soldiers.

[Gilbert Cruz]

Were you able to interact with the soldiers afterwards? Did you hear from them after you gave your talk?

[Annie Jacobson]

I had a conundrum that I have never had before and it was what you might call a quality problem. But the book had been nominated, shortlisted for the Bailey Gifford Award in the UK for nonfiction, and I had previously committed to attending that. And so I had to tell the commander of Special Operations Command Korea that I couldn't attend. But I was honored and thank you. And he said to me, I hope you win.

[Gilbert Cruz]

Oh, boy, did you win?

[Annie Jacobson]

I did not. I did. I won in spirit. Listen, you get shortlisted for anything you won.

[Gilbert Cruz]

That is a very positive way to look at it. Something that is not positive, and that I will never forgive you for, is a brief section in this book that takes place at 42 minutes after the missile has launched that is set at the National Zoo, in which you describe all the ways in which beautiful, wonderful animals will die. Completely unnecessary. Annie, you did not have to put it in there. I do not understand why it's in there. Take it out of the paperback. Why did you do that?

[Annie Jacobson]

When I was walking around Washington D.C. imagining this, I came upon the zoo and looking at those beautiful animals made me think exactly what you're questioning. And I felt it was a responsibility as a reporter to give them their place in all of this.

[Gilbert Cruz]

In your acknowledgments, you write, nuclear war is insane. Every person I interviewed for the book knows this. And yet, Annie, it doesn't seem like there's anything to do about it at this stage. Is that incorrect? What is one to do?

[Annie Jacobson]

It is incorrect in my opinion and I'll tell you why. As a journalist, my lane is storytelling. But I have met many new colleagues on this journey, if you will, including people who work in non proliferation. And I have met people whose lives have been dedicated toward the reduction of these nuclear weapon systems and the arsenals, and they have an incredibly positive attitude. There is a treaty at the United nations right now, the tpnw, the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons. And you have all these dedicated professionals working literally around the clock to get more nations to sign on to this idea that nuclear war is insane, that nuclear war can never, in the words of Reagan and Gorbachev, nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought. And the idea behind the TPNW is that the only way to ensure that nuclear war doesn't happen is to reduce these arsenals. That, to me, is a positive takeaway out of all of this, and I absolutely believe that it can be done and is being done.

[Gilbert Cruz]

I think ending on a positive note is slightly perverse, but also the appropriate thing to do after having gone through this journey with you. Annie Jacobson, thank you so much for joining the show.

[Annie Jacobson]

It was a pleasure being here. Thank you for having me.

[Gilbert Cruz]

That was my frightening conversation with Annie Jacobson about her book nuclear A Scenario. I'm Gilbert Cruz, editor of the New York Times Book Review. Thank you for listening.