
BoF correspondent Mike Sykes unpacks why a Bank of America report calling a peak to sneaker sales has rattled the industry, and whether the decades-long trend towards casual dressing has anywhere left to go.
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Sheena Butler Young
Hello and welcome to the Debrief from the Business of fashion where each week we delve into Our most popular BoF professional stories with the correspondents who created them. I'm senior correspondent Sheena Butler Young.
Brian Baskin
And I'm executive editor Brian Baskin. Fifteen years ago, the concept of office sneakers was brand new. Google records virtually zero searches for the term before 2011. And the idea didn't really take off for another decade after that when companies started calling employees back to work after the pandemic. Sneakers are the symbol of a decades long trend toward more casual dressing. In most workplaces today. Spotting someone in Nike or Adidas, maybe even the CEO, would be unremarkable.
Sheena Butler Young
But new analysis from bank of America suggests that sneaker sales have peaked. Sportswear sales growth has decelerated once hot stocks styles like the Adidas Samba are cooling. And analysts are questioning whether the category and maybe the whole casualization trend has reached a natural ceiling. Joining us to discuss is BoF reporter and resident sneaker expert Mike Sykes. Mike, welcome to the debrief.
Mike Sykes
Thanks for having me.
Brian Baskin
All right, so my inbox is full of reports like that one from bank of America. Why did this one cause such a stir?
Mike Sykes
This one was the first one in a while in a really long time that sort of seemed like it spelled a bit of doom and gloom for, for industry. And I feel like everyone is, has been on pins and needles for the last couple years as Nike has been in its downturn. Just because people seem to be sort of over this whole trend of, of wearing sneakers to the office, wearing sweats and with, with different fashionable items. Like everyone is like, is this really the end? And bank of America is kind of like, yeah, like it's over. Like people are trying to wear cool stuff now.
Sheena Butler Young
They also zeroed in on, on one brand, right? They, they downgraded Adidas. Double downgrade I think is what they call, they call that a double downgrade.
Mike Sykes
Yeah, Adidas got the double downgrade, which, which again, like Adidas for the last few years has been the hottest brand in the industry behind, like you mentioned, Sheena, the, the Samba, like that has been the it shoe for these last few years. So if Adidas is getting the double downgrade here, what does that mean for everyone? El, Is the industry in trouble? That's what this report made it seem like.
Brian Baskin
That's what struck me as so dramatic about this report is that, you know, I alluded at the beginning that this trend of, of more and more sneaker sales has been going on for literally decades and throughout that time, you know, you have times when Nike's up and they're down and Adidas is up or, or someone else is rising. And this report basically said, this is the cliff. And once Adidas and the. And the Sambas fade, there's nothing following that to carry this trend further. Further. Is that right?
Mike Sykes
I don't know if it's right, but I also don't know if it's wrong either, which is like a really roundabout way of saying I'm honestly unsure. Because, look, here's the thing. Like, there are people who are, like, we are going into a period where people are wearing different things, right? And you even see that in sneakers. I would look at something like the sneaker loafers that New Balance has made over these last few years or even going back to 20, when everyone was wearing the mischief big red boot and like, like people are just willing to.
Brian Baskin
Was everyone wearing those boots? Everyone. Really?
Mike Sykes
Listen, when. When I went outside on the weekends, on those rare weekends where people would see me, I saw a lot of pairs of those. And whether they were authentic or not, I don't know. But just the fact that people are wearing these big red clown shoes just said to me that, like, hey, like the, the Jordan ones, the Nike dunks, the. The things that we're used to, people aren't as into them as they once were. And if that's the case, then it makes you just wonder, like, okay, where is this thing going to go? But at the same time, while you're wondering that there's not really anything that has come in and sort of replaced the sneaker, right? There's not really any sort of apparel that has come in and replaced the activewear that people like to wear casually now. Like, there just is. Is no next thing. And so if there's no next thing, then how can we really be moving on from the previous thing? That. That's the sort of question that I think we're all left with after. After reading this report.
Sheena Butler Young
What I thought Brian was going to say that I found interesting is, like, these big investment firms and banks that do these ratings, they're not looking at hype, right? They're looking at true data here. So they're talking like a 1.3% growth in the sneaker category this year compared to like, growing 3.5% or higher over the last couple of years. But they're not the only ones that' creating a brand like Adidas. They're sort of alone in this negative tilt. Or maybe there's one other investor I think that your story talks about that. That's saying Adidas is signaling the end. Everyone else is pretty upbeat. No.
Mike Sykes
Yeah, everyone else seems to feel like things are going at least. Okay, maybe not perfect, but. But nothing is. Is perfect in this economy.
Sheena Butler Young
Well, Matt Powell says he sees nothing close to that. He's very positive.
Ad Host
Yeah.
Mike Sykes
So in, in speaking with, with the people that, that I spoke with for this story, like, there, there was just a sense of, like, it's not great, but it's also not bad either. And saying that it's bad or that the trend is reversing, it's way too premature to say that. And then the following week, I think it was Bernstein that came out with a report that showed they launched a consumer survey that showed that people are still into sneakers. They are still planning on buying sportswear in 2026, and they bought in 2025. Maybe not at the level 2020, 2021, when everyone was. Was buying sneakers, partially because they were good for resale at that time. And you could maybe make a nice profit off of buying the right pair of Jordan ones or something. But, like, the trends right now just say to me that, like, we are in a period of sort of returning to normalcy.
Brian Baskin
That's such a great point about a return to normalcy. And I think also just to pull in what you said, Sheena, about Matt Powell. So he's an analyst and a longtime sneaker expert. I mean, he's almost half analyst, half culture critic when it comes to that world. And he's looking at it much more from that perspective. And bank of America and these other banks are weighing the share price of these companies versus the expectations for their future profits. And, you know, from that perspective, bank of America might be right in saying Adidas can never live up to the hype that's been built around it and their past rate of growth. But that's very different than saying, sneakers are over. We're all going to be wearing. I don't know. And to Mike's other point, whatever, we're normal. What's the next thing? Yeah, big red boots, Crocs. I don't know what it's going to be.
Mike Sykes
Yeah, that's kind of the thing, right? Is that, like, okay, so. So Adidas may not get back to that level that it was at in 2021 or whatever. But, I mean, if you think about the. The place where Adidas was just like, two years ago, three years ago, I don't even think that I thought Adidas would get to the spot. That it's currently in right now. I don't know. It. Maybe that's. That's a bit too much of an extraordinary circumstance considering, like, the fallout with Yeezy and everything. But, like, I just feel like if. If the progress that. That we've seen from the company has gotten to this point, then I. I just. I. I don't really see why I. I should be that worried about the company.
Brian Baskin
Well, let's step back here. I mean, why. Why have sneakers been so enduring? I mean, it's pretty rare for anything. I mean, maybe skinny jeans had an upswing that lasted this long, but it just seems like it does only go in one direction, and that's pretty rare for any item of clothing. And you're right, it makes it hard to imagine how that trend could reverse.
Mike Sykes
There are two things in my mind that. That that sort of drive this trend, right? It's the fact that that sneakers are generally just accessible for people. Like, it's a. It's an easy trend to follow. Everybody knows what the next coolest pair of Jordans would be. Or like, even now, when you look at, like, some of the Asics that people are wearing on the New Balancer or whatever, like, you can. You can easily spot, like, which ones are cool. And it's not necessarily, like, it's sort of an inside baseball thing. Like, it's if you know, you know, vibe. But, like, it's very easy to sort of hop on the bandwagon and follow the trend. And so I think that's part of it, but also the next part of it to me is the accessibility that comes with this stuff, right? Like, when you look at sneakers and even just from a broader perspective, sportswear, like, a lot of this stuff comes in at. At a cheaper price that is, like, you can. You can go out and find a cool pair of sneakers, like Ice White, pair of Air force ones for $100. Now, it used to be $90, right? And that was. Was one of the coolest shoes out, and you could just walk into your local Foot Locker if you had one around you and buy one. You can find a nice pair of leggings to match with a nice top in a nice coat. Or you can style a pair of sweatpants with a cool sweater. It's just more accessible and easier to figure out than some of the more fashionable items out there. Like, if you were going to go for a nice pair of corduroy trousers or something like that from J. Crew, there's a bit more of a barrier of entry there for people. And I think that. That sneakers and more broadly, sportswear just give people that. That access a bit more, which is especially important now as. As a lot of people are trying to determine, like, do I want to buy this next outfit or do I want to buy groceries?
Sheena Butler Young
And I would also argue that over the years, every time that there could have been a moment that sneakers could have decelerated, it wasn't. The brands are probably giving it the second wind all the time. It was like other trends, like the pandemic, like people wanting to be comfortable. It wasn't that a brand necessarily put out an amazing shoe during the pandemic. We were st. We wanted comfortable shoes. We were walking more. So they got a lot of help over the years. They're probably not. There's nothing in the over the horizon that shows that they'll get another boost naturally either.
Brian Baskin
And Sheena, potentially the reverse. I mean, your last story was about how fashion companies are basically saying, get back to the office five days a week. I don't care what you think and how comfortable you are at home.
Sheena Butler Young
Can I just say I was. The whole time I was typing that, I was like, can art not imitate life? Every sentence. I was just breathing that into the atmosphere as I typed every time.
Brian Baskin
Sheena, I've got some bad news for you about the work from home policy. Just kidding.
Sheena Butler Young
Just kidding.
Brian Baskin
But, I mean, it does. If that does speak to. I mean, maybe that is one of those pivot moments. If everyone's back in the office, you know, if there's other cultural forces out there pushing back against more casual dressing, maybe something takes hold. I'm not. Sneakers aren't going anywhere. But I. I do think that maybe bank of America has a point that everything is not a tailwind right now.
Mike Sykes
Yeah, for sure. And I think one of the more interesting points that I think was made in the story when I spoke with Elizabeth Semmelhek of the Bata Sho Museum in Toronto. I wanted to get, like, a historic perspective on, like, trends that have sort of shifted out and changed over time. And she made the point that she thought that we were in a space where it would be like the Roaring Twenties and the 1920s, where, like, it's post World War I and, like, there's this big bustling industry that's going everywhere. And she thought that we might be headed for that in the early 2000 and twenties. And it hasn't necessarily manifested itself yet, maybe partially because of the pandemic. But as you're saying, Brian, like, maybe there is A moment where now that back to the office culture is coming back, people are getting tired of seeing the same styles over and over again. Maybe people are going to be like instead of sneakers, maybe it's hard bottom loafers that are cool again or something. I don't know.
Sheena Butler Young
Let's hope art doesn't imitate or that that is not true. But you're hinting or circling another point that your story mentioned, which is that in order for this trend to go in either direction, there needs to be a replacement either or like something new or exciting that comes out. So either Nike or Adidas or some of one of the sneaker brands puts out a shoe that is exciting and rejuvenates the category or another footwear category emerges with a hot item or a hot trend that tilts it in the other direction. Nike recently gave us a hint at how this could shift. They put out a shoe that is not a sneaker but is their hottest shoe shoe arguably right now. Right?
Mike Sykes
Yeah. So you're talking about the React X Rejuvenate, which is a very long name, but it's also like not a formal wear piece either. This is a recovery clog that Nike made. It launched the shoe in January of 2025 and even skipping a year ahead here in 2026. It's hottest shoe right now is the Nike Mine 001 and 002. Which one of those is a sneake but the other is a mule and that's the one that people are more interested in now.
Brian Baskin
And it's a telepathic sneaker if I understand correctly. Yes.
Mike Sykes
Yeah. There are 22 nodes in the soul that are supposed to sort of sink your mind and get the athlete ready for competition. I haven't worn a pair, so I don't know if it works or not. I don't know. But regardless, this is something that people are into. This is something that people want. And it's not because it's, you know, necessarily like the most different thing what, what I've in speaking to people who, who have wanted this shoe, it's mostly about the comfort. They just want something that's, that's a bit more comfortable. And so like I would say like as far as ending the casualization trend, like this is not a shoe that would do that. This is a shoe that would entrench it a bit more, I think, which is, which is honestly fascinating to me. Coming off of the bank of America report, the rejuvenate.
Brian Baskin
I mean it really, it's almost redefining what a shoe is it's just so different from a sneaker. But still, like you said, it still definitely falls in that category somehow.
Sheena Butler Young
We'll be back with more of the debrief right after this.
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Sheena Butler Young
So there was another interesting stat that was not in the bank of America report, but it was in Mike's newsletter this month and it said that Nike's non sneaker footwear sales were up 5811% on StockX. So you talk about this at length in the newsletter, but what does that tell you?
Mike Sykes
It tells me that again, like, people are interested in wearing different things, but it, it doesn't signal to me the end of a, of a casualization trend. It signals to me that people are looking for more comfortable alternatives. They're looking for cheaper alternatives. Because, I mean, let's, let's be honest about sneakers here. Like, things are getting a bit expensive. Like there, there are shoes that if you're looking to buy a pair of Jordan ones which like, I guess are out of style now, but, but they can go up to $180 now and maybe even higher, which is not the case. It wasn't the case five or ten years ago. Right. And so like, with, with increasing prices on some of the hit sneakers that, that we have out there, people are looking for cheaper alternatives. People are looking for more comfortable alternatives. And that huge percentage of sales on, on StockX's platform was driven by that react x rejuvenate shoe that we just talked about where it's not a sneaker. It's, it's not any sort of traditional Nike thing, but it's like a clog and it's closer to something like a Croc. Right? And, and like we saw the Crocs rise over these last few years and we're seeing all these, these weirder like Mary Jane sneaker fusions and loafer sneaker fusions that are happening. And it just shows me that like, people are, are looking for these alternatives that, that aren't necessarily what we're used to, but are still something that they might consider to be cool and hip from the brands that they love.
Sheena Butler Young
I looked at Foot Locker to see the rejuvenate sneaker and they have all these like, style look pictures and one is with a bucket hat, the other is with like basketball shorts, and the third look is with sweatpants. So if you wanted to picture whether this signals the end of casualization, it's the exact opposite. You're not wearing this to the Met gala.
Mike Sykes
Exactly.
Brian Baskin
I think they'd go great with my tux I don't know.
Sheena Butler Young
Well, you could pull it off, Ryan, but I don't know if anyone else pull it off, if anyone else could.
Brian Baskin
I love what you said though, Mike, about, about this desire for experimentation. And there was another shoe you, I'll throw in there, which is the, the Zeller Feld 3D printed shoes where you just wrote about how they're putting out their first multicolored 3D printed shoe, which is an, you know, it doesn't sound like a huge innovation, but it actually is a big deal in that world. And it's, it's another great example that people definitely want something different. I don't think it sounds like they haven't landed yet on what that difference might be. Or at least there's no consensus.
Mike Sykes
Exactly. There's no consensus for what different is. I think people are just in a phase where they're trying things and maybe it is a multi colored 3D printed sneaker like you said, Brian, that is a big innovation. Like usually with 3D printed footwear, it's all one color and the color is of the material that was printed. And now Zellerfeld has come up with this thing, this technology where they can print multicolored, which is like the, the first time this has ever happened. And they're doing it in the, the Air Max 1000, which is a Nike 3D printer model made in partnership with the company or whatever. But like, I don't know. Will that be something that people are into? I'm not sure. I don't know. Like, I know that people were interested in the Air Max 1000, but it also wasn't one of Nike's best sellers by any means. And so like maybe this is something that, that ends up unlocking a new door and opening a new path for the industry, but it could be something else. Maybe everybody's just going to be wearing clogs in, in 10 years. I don't know that. That sounds terrible to me.
Sheena Butler Young
Let's, let's hope not. Let us. And by the way, we mentioned, I mentioned earlier that like a lot of these brands, even if they were going to see a cooling off like these sneaker brands, there was always some kind of cultural moment or you know, a pandemic even that sort of gave them a second win. There is something coming up. The 2026 FIFA World cup is where I think brands like Nike and Adidas are expecting. They're fully investing in that. Giving them, I don't know if they'll call it a second win, but giving them some New momentum, Mike, do you see that adding anything? What's your, what's your verdict?
Mike Sykes
I think that the World cup will be a huge event for, for the industry. Like they, they are. Nike is, is going full board with this. So is Adidas. They have, have these different collaborations that are coming. They have these different partnerships. Like Travis Scott is going to be involved in the World cup for Nike. And it doesn't even stop at the World cup, honestly, like in a few weeks here we have the 2026 Winter Olympics in Milan, and that's going to be a really big event too. Maybe not as big from like a sportswear perspective, because it's the Winter Olympics. You got to make your operas ski gear and like, you got to come with, with, with the, the warm stuff because nobody's wearing sneakers in the snow. But 2026 is going to be a very big year for, for the industry.
Brian Baskin
I was thinking the super bowl halftime show is another opportunity. I mean, that's become such a launchpad for fashion trends. And I could see there being some kind of sneaker or not a sneaker moment that helps accelerate things too.
Mike Sykes
Absolutely. I mean, Bad Bunny is Bad Bunny, and you know, he's going to pull out something, there's going to be something. And I, I would, I would be shocked if Adidas didn't make sure it was a part of that moment.
Sheena Butler Young
Okay, to wrap things up, we're gonna do a quick lightning round. We're gonna get Mike's take on five sneakers whether they're hot or not in 2026, and basically have these styles peaked. Mike. So I'll start with the Adidas. Sambas. Peaked or still hot?
Mike Sykes
Still hot, but it's cooling.
Brian Baskin
Onitsuka, Tiger.
Mike Sykes
Wait, what's the opposite of hot?
Brian Baskin
I like how much he's deliberating here. I think you just answered that question.
Mike Sykes
I mean, people like them, but, like, it's not my bag.
Sheena Butler Young
The ASICS gel. 11:30 hot. Why are they hot? What's the criteria for hot?
Mike Sykes
The criteria is if I walk outside and, and go down a city block in D.C. do I see this shoe at all? And if the answer is yes, then. Then it's probably hot still. If the answer is no, then.
Brian Baskin
And just to calibrate people's expectations, this. In his neighborhood, everyone's wearing the mischief clown shoes. So.
Mike Sykes
So, you know, so you know, you know how it goes out here. It's not, it's not great. I wouldn't say that this is the, the, the peak of fashion at all, but this is this Is what I'm saying.
Sheena Butler Young
Close enough.
Brian Baskin
All right, we got two more for you. They're both Nikes. Nike Air Rift.
Mike Sykes
That's hot. Surprisingly hot. I did not anticipate this being hot, but people, I mean, Mary Janes had a moment in. In 2025 generally, and I think in 2026, especially with the. The skims collab like this one. We see. We see a bit. I can be wrong about this, but.
Sheena Butler Young
I can confirm I've never seen them on my block. I have not walked outside. I'm looking at each and they have not been worn on my block, but that's not saying much.
Brian Baskin
My neighbors are like 80 years old. They're not wearing any of these sneakers, I can guarantee it. They're wearing some nice Kedspedia, you know, prescribed sneakers. I think it's interesting, though, we've mentioned several hot Nike shoes. I mean, when was the last time they were this much in the conversation? I mean, that's. I think it's a meta narrative here. I don't know.
Mike Sykes
It's been a while.
Brian Baskin
Yeah.
Mike Sykes
Yeah.
Brian Baskin
All right, last one. Nike Air Force One.
Mike Sykes
Always going to be hot. Always going to be. 2026 in particular is going to be a very hot year for. For the Air Force One.
Brian Baskin
All right, you heard it here.
Sheena Butler Young
Well, that's the only one that I have from the list on my. In my closet, so that makes me feel good.
Brian Baskin
Yeah, Mike, how many of those do you own? And you got your wall of sneakers behind you usually.
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One.
Brian Baskin
One.
Mike Sykes
Yeah. The gel 1130 Air Force Ones look great. I look stupid in them. I'm sorry. I can't wear them.
Brian Baskin
I'm sure that's not true.
Mike Sykes
It's true. Just take my word for it.
Brian Baskin
Well, Mike, I think you could pull off any sneakers. And on that note, I wanted to thank you for joining us today.
Mike Sykes
Thanks, Brian. Thanks, Sheena.
Brian Baskin
Please be sure to check out Mike's article have sneaker sales finally peaked? And sign up for his sports and fashion newsletter, the kicks you wear@businessoffashion.com these articles and Mike's newsletter are available to BoF Professional subscribers only, and you can find the links in the episode notes.
Sheena Butler Young
You've been listening to the debrief, produced and edited by Olivia Davies and Eric Brea. I'm Sheena Butler Young.
Brian Baskin
And I'm Brian Baskin. We'll be back next week with a new episode. Thanks so much for joining us and be sure to follow us wherever you get your podcasts.
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Date: January 21, 2026
Host: Sheena Butler Young (Senior Correspondent), Brian Baskin (Executive Editor)
Guest: Mike Sykes (BoF Reporter, Sneaker Expert)
This episode of The Debrief explores whether the long-running sneaker craze might finally be losing its cultural and commercial dominance. Prompted by a Bank of America report forecasting a downturn in sneaker sales and a dramatic “double downgrade” of Adidas, the conversation interrogates whether sneakers and casualization in fashion have peaked or simply hit a plateau. Correspondent Mike Sykes brings industry data, cultural insight, and historical perspective to the debate, alongside a lightning round evaluating the hottest sneakers of 2026.
[23:25]
Sheena quizzes Mike Sykes on popular sneaker models:
While Bank of America’s financial outlook signals sneaker brands may face a period of adjustment, the podcast’s hosts and expert guest agree that casualization and sneaker culture aren’t going away any time soon—if anything, they are evolving. With consumers demanding more comfort, affordability, and experimentation, the sneaker’s “cool factor” remains, but the landscape is more complex and diverse than ever.
“If there’s no next thing, then how can we really be moving on from the previous thing?”
— Mike Sykes, [03:07]