How Oil Shock Fears Are Rippling Through Fashion

Summary

Podcast Summary: The Business of Fashion Podcast

Episode: How Oil Shock Fears Are Rippling Through Fashion

Date: March 11, 2026
Host: The Business of Fashion (Sheena Butler Young & Brian Baskin)
Guests: Shaiza Walid, Kat Chen

---

Episode Overview

This episode addresses the far-reaching impact of the escalating conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran, specifically focusing on Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz—the world’s critical oil transit chokepoint. The discussion centers on how this shock to the global oil market is rippling through the fashion industry, affecting everything from manufacturing and shipping to consumer sentiment and prices.

---

Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Why Oil Prices Matter to Fashion

• Critical Supply Route Blocked: Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz highlights how regional conflict can induce a global crisis—over one-fifth of the world’s oil and gas passes through this route, essential for fashion supply chains in Asia.
• Direct Impact on Production: Key fashion manufacturing hubs like China, India, Bangladesh, Vietnam, and Indonesia receive most of their oil from the Gulf. Supply disruptions immediately hit fabric production, energy costs, and logistics.
  • Quote (Shaiza Walid, 01:48): “This crisis … shows how a regional conflict can have global ramifications in real time.”

2. Immediate Effects: Rising Costs and Uncertainty

• Synthetic Fabric Prices Jump: Reports indicate synthetic (oil-based) fabric prices soared by 10% overnight as supply dwindled.
  • Quote (Shaiza Walid, 03:01): “Man-made fiber prices were already going up … those areas could nearly be crippled if the crisis continues.”
• Mood on the Ground: Manufacturers and supplier groups express apprehension but are relying on resilience from past crises.
  • Quote (Shaiza Walid, 03:40): “The word that came out repeatedly... was apprehension… but also this idea of wait and see.”

3. The Nature of the Risk: Logistics First, Inflation Later

• Shipping and Insurance Disruption: With the supply of oil cut, the logistics system is hit first. Many shipping lines added “war surcharges”—costs ranged from $1,200 to $4,000 per vessel.
  • Quote (Shaiza Walid, 06:45): "There's no standardization for [war surcharges] ... it varied from like $1200 to $4000 for one vessel."
• Government Response: For example, India requested that logistics companies curb unfair surcharges to avoid compounding the problem.
• Inflation a Potential Next Step: If the crisis persists, these shipping cost increases will eventually feed into higher garment prices.

4. Volatile Oil Prices: Not Trusting Political Promises

• Price Swings: Oil prices spiked from ~$85 up to near $120/bbl before sliding down again, influenced in part by political reassurances but skepticism remains.
  • Quote (Shaiza Walid, 06:03): “They had… two cents to say about how they don’t really trust Trump’s words and they can’t rely on that to take action.”

5. U.S. & Western Perspective: Consumer Confidence and Inflation

• Macro Story for Western Markets: Higher oil directly erodes consumer confidence, mainly through psychological impact—recalling the trauma of previous oil crises.
  • Quote (Kat Chen, 08:04): “Americans have trauma from the oil crisis from the 70s. There’s this concept that any sort of shock in oil means a recession is coming up.”
• Disproportionate Impact on Low-Income Consumers: Oil consumption is similar across U.S. households, but rising prices disproportionately hurt those with less disposable income.
  • Quote (Kat Chen, 09:34): “As prices go up, it’s going to be the lower income households that hurt the most because it’s a bigger share of their wallet.”
• K-Shaped Economy Intensification: The shock could worsen existing divides in spending patterns between affluent and less-affluent consumers.
  • Quote (Brian Baskin, 10:20): “It might be middle class, upper middle class down, not just the lower end.”

6. Retail Pricing Strategies & Communication

• Lag Between Cost Increases and Retail Prices: Freight cost spikes take time to hit retail, as existing inventories buffer the short-term.
• Transparency as Trust Builder: Smaller brands that communicated cost increases transparently did well, but there’s an understanding among consumers that volatile prices are now normal.
  • Quote (Kat Chen, 12:41): “I think most people in the industry are observing the situation … there is a lot of understanding among consumers that, you know, costs are always rising.”

7. Structural & Long-Term Consequences

• Resiliency vs. Physical Limits: The industry is more prepared for shocks after years of volatility, but energy shocks can be fundamentally different; “If you don’t have oil, the lights don’t turn on.”
  • Quote (Brian Baskin, 22:00): “There is this fundamental difference between something like tariffs … and an energy shock. There’s a certain physics involved.”
• Potential Shifts in Fabric Mix: Soaring oil prices could, in theory, push a shift back toward natural fibers (like cotton), but supply constraints and regional industry structure make this unlikely in the short term.
  • Quote (Shaiza Walid, 17:20): “I don’t know if that’s particularly true because the cotton supply chain is so … isolated to certain parts of the world.”
  • Quote (Kat Chen, 18:24): “If there were volatility in cotton, the effects … would be a lot more acute than for oil and polyester.”
• Acceleration of Renewables: Some manufacturing regions, like India and Sri Lanka, may accelerate shifts to renewables—solar, for example—but limits persist, creating new inequalities.
  • Quote (Shaiza Walid, 19:08): "It's really going to create a lot of inequality in which manufacturing hubs are able to succeed and which have to ride the wave..."

8. Underestimated or Overlooked Dimensions

• Supply Chain Fragility: The episode spotlights how globally intertwined and vulnerable fashion's supply chain remains.
• The Human Impact: Anxiety, mental health strain, and the human toll for workers and consumers must not be underestimated, even as industry leaders focus on business continuity.
  • Quote (Sheena Butler Young, 22:42): “People are maybe not as resilient as we sometimes believe. I think people are hurting and ... that's gonna have a long term mental health fallout.”

---

Notable Quotes & Memorable Moments

• “This crisis … shows how a regional conflict can have global ramifications in real time.”
  — Shaiza Walid (01:48)

• “Man-made fiber prices were already going up ... those areas could nearly be crippled if the crisis continues.”
  — Shaiza Walid (03:01)

• “Americans have trauma from the oil crisis from the 70s. There's this concept that any sort of shock in oil means a recession is coming up.”
  — Kat Chen (08:04)

• “If you don’t have oil, the lights don’t turn on and the factory machines don’t run and the ships don’t go ... There's a certain physics involved.”
  — Brian Baskin (22:00)

• “People are maybe not as resilient as we sometimes believe. I think people are hurting and that ... has a long term mental health fallout.”
  — Sheena Butler Young (22:42)

• “It just struck me how perspectives are where she is focusing with, you know, on the ground reporting, connecting with suppliers and manufacturers. And I have the luxury of being able to take a much bird's eye view, connecting with analysts …”
  — Kat Chen (23:26)

---

Timestamps for Important Segments

• 00:40 — Iran shuts the Strait of Hormuz; oil price impacts begin
• 01:48 — Why fashion industry execs should care
• 03:01 — Synthetic fabric price spike; impact on India-specific industry
• 04:35 — Main risk: Logistics, not yet inflation
• 06:45 — "War surcharges" & logistics impacts detailed
• 08:04 — U.S. consumer psychology, oil crisis trauma
• 09:34 — K-shaped economy implications
• 12:41 — Communication and transparency on cost increases
• 14:44 — Structural shifts: potential supply chain changes if cheap energy disappears
• 16:28 — Will high oil prices shift fashion back to cotton?
• 19:08 — Renewables as potential solution, by region
• 22:00 — Physical limitations: energy shock different from tariffs
• 22:42 — Human/mental health impacts and resilience
• 23:26 — Different reporting perspectives: ground-level vs. macro analysis

---

Takeaways for Fashion Industry Leaders

• Prepare for Persistent Volatility: While the initial shock is being weathered, fashion’s supply chains are as exposed as ever, making structural resilience and nimbleness vital.
• Watch Consumer Sentiment Closely: Even if inflationary effects are delayed, consumer anxiety and fear can stifle spending months before official numbers rise.
• Deepen Communication & Transparency: Brands that are upfront about rising costs and industry challenges build more trust.
• Advocate for Systemic Solutions: Governments and industry groups have a growing role to play in mitigating shock, especially in countries deeply dependent on imported energy.
• Long-Term Contracts & Risk Mitigation: Consider supply chain contracts that account for extreme volatility, and invest in diversification and possibly renewable energy backup where possible.

---

Final Note

The episode closes with the acknowledgment that the oil shock is a fast-evolving story, with the fashion industry’s responses shaped by past crises but tested by a potential new normal of geopolitical and energy volatility. A nuanced understanding—balancing both supply chain vulnerabilities and consumer psychology—will be key for industry players navigating the months ahead.

Transcript

[A]

Foreign.

[B]

Hello, and welcome to the Debrief from the Business of Fashion, where each week we delve into Our most popular BoF professional stories with the correspondents who created them. I'm senior correspondent Sheena Butler Young.

[C]

And I'm executive editor Brian Baskin. The US And Israel are at war with Iran in what has quickly escalated into a broader regional crisis. Israeli and US Strikes on Iranian targets have provoked retaliations. And crucially, Iran has threatened shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, promising to not let a single drop of oil leave

[B]

the region that has set global markets on edge. The Strait of Hormuz is a crucial artery for the world's oil supply. After Iran shut down shipping through the strait, crude prices briefly jumped above $100 a barrel before pulling back again on Monday. But the last time prices reached that level was after Russia invaded Ukraine in 20.

[C]

The price of oil matters to the fashion industry at every level. It affects how much it costs to power a garment factory and if those clothes were made from synthetic fabrics, the cost of the garments themselves. There's shipping expenses to consider, and consumers are less likely to go shopping if they're paying an extra dollar or two a gallon to fill up their cars. To understand this multi layered story, we're joined by BoF's Shayeza Walid and Kat Chen to unpack what the industry needs to understand about this rapidly unfolding energy crisis. Shaiza. Kat, welcome to the debrief.

[A]

Thanks for having us.

[B]

So, Shaiza, why don't we start with you. Let's set aside for a moment the very real and very devastating human toll of this conflict. Can you tell us at the most basic level why fashion executives should care about what's happening in the Strait of Hormuz?

[D]

I think this crisis, when the Strait of Hormuz being closed, it kind of shows how a regional conflict can have global ramifications in real time. So with this particular situation, the Strait of Hormuz is one of the maritime passages through which about one fifth of the world's oil and gas goes through. And in Asia, where majority of fashion supply chain lies, you know, we have our biggest producing countries, China, India, Bangladesh, Vietnam, Indonesia. They outsource and they have their oil come from the Gulf to Asia. Reuters reported that Asia imports about 60% of its crude from the Middle East. And with the Strait of Hormuz being closed, a lot of that supply is now stuck in the Gulf or not passing through. And one of the large barriers to that is the fact that there is no insurance for logistics and shipping companies to kind of pass through the oil and gas that's needed. And as a result of that, producers in these manufacturing hubs, they're already facing crises of cost when it comes to, first of all, the volatile oil prices, but also in general with energy supply.

[C]

I saw one report that certain synthetic fabrics, the price had already gone up by 10% basically overnight. I mean, does it really work its way through the system that quickly?

[D]

Yeah, I would say so. When I spoke to kind of export associations in India and also I saw some reports in China, they said that man made fiber prices were already going up. And that's because the quantity that that's being made is being reduced when the prices are increasing. That's what one of the people in India told me. And synthetics in particular, there's areas in India that are very focused on synthetic textile production. And those areas could near will be crippled if the crisis continues because they only use that type of fabric and those are the people that are employed there.

[C]

Wow. So what's the general mood of the people you're talking to there? I mean, are they panicking? Are they kind of just wait and see? Are they assuming this will be over soon and not too worried?

[D]

I think the word that came out repeatedly in like the four or five calls that I had was apprehensive and apprehension. But also this idea of wait and see. A few of the people considering all the tariff turmoil that happened over the last year, they're like, you know, we've been through this and we've been through many other crisis, so there's no reason we can't go through this right now. That being said, the kind of concern that they had was the fact that when consumers will feel this impact, or if they do, if the situation persists, that means demand will decrease. And that's what they're kind of more scared of, which is this possible idea of inflationary pressures. But in terms of the current situation and facing the pressures of energy shortage or cost increases, they think that they can kind of overcome this if they're resilient.

[B]

So based on what you've heard, you've had six major conversations on this at this point. Do you think this will be best understood or most lived out as a sourcing risk, a logistics risk, or an inflationary story?

[D]

So I think in the immediacy, it's a logistics risk story because every single person is dealing with the fact that oil and gas supplies are not coming through to their countries. Some countries have more diversified sourcing, like India and China. So they're able to kind of have a buffer right now. But a lot of people told me that it's a supply issue and a logistics issue before. It's a cost issue right now. And so the fact that shipping line companies are charging things like a war surcharge, it's making costs higher for suppliers already. And, and that's one of their major concerns right now. The government of India, the Department of Shipping, actually put out a statement yesterday directed to shipping companies and logistics companies saying that they shouldn't unfairly charge suppliers or exporters and importers surcharges because of the conflict in Iran. And so that's something that's kind of playing out as we speak. And as for the inflationary story and in terms of the sourcing story, I think that's something that will happen if the situation persists.

[C]

I'm curious when you talked to some of these people, because one thing we haven't noted yet is that oil prices have actually come back down from they spiked from about $85 a barrel up to almost $120 a barrel late Sunday, early Monday. And they've fallen steadily since, in part because President Donald Trump said that, you know, he expects the war to conclude soon. And I'm curious, you know, when you were talking to people where price is more at the 120 level or more at where they are now, you know, 85 DOL dollars.

[D]

I spoke to two people yesterday and for today, and when I kind of talked about the oil pricing, I'm not going to say any of them sidestepped it. They definitely saw it as a major pressure and talked about the macroeconomic perspective. But in general, all of them kind of had 2 cents to say about how they don't really trust Trump's words and they can't rely on that to take action on scarcity. And they kind of said that one day prices will go up, the next day it'll go down. But we can't kind of depend on that to take action when it comes to the scarcity and the fuel crisis that they're facing right now.

[B]

Can we double click on the wartime surge, Shai? Is it like, what does that mean? Is that something that is being applied to things and it sticks no matter what the market does or no matter what oil prices do?

[D]

Yeah. So this was something I personally found really fascinating because there's no standardization for this. So different shipping companies will charge different surcharges depending on what kind of route they're taking. So because the street is closed right now, one of the passages some logistics companies are taking is kind of around Africa on the Cape of Good Hope. Some of them are trying to use the Swiss Canal. And it really depends. And it seems like, you know, there were some names thrown out about shipping from logistics companies, but I couldn't verify them in short time as to what their actual pricing is. But it seemed like it varied from like $1200 to $4000. That would be for one, one vessel.

[B]

Well, let's bring in Cat for a little bit here because I think as Shay as has explained it, the macro story is quite clear. But there's also some movement happening, you know, outside of. Can we talk about what executives in the US are saying? Is it, is it reaching the conversation in a big way here? Are you having conversations right now that it seems like people are worried about this?

[A]

Yeah, absolutely. This is kind of like the macro, macro story, right. Because one thing we do know for sure is that if oil prices continue to go up, there will be a dip in consumer confidence. Now the question is, you know, how long is that lag and to what extent when companies are seeing their freight costs go up right now, they're not going to immediately factor that into their prices. And so when we're, you know, when we're thinking about inflation in apparel, that is a possibility months down the road. The more maybe immediate effect on the consumer economy is simply psychological. I think, you know, Americans have trauma from the oil crisis from the 70s. There's this concept that any sort of shock in oil means a recession is coming up. And I spoke to an energy consultant this morning and she was very adamant about the fact that that kind of economic catastrophe, at least in the US is very, very, very unlikely. However, that sort of lingering feeling, the psychology of seeing oil prices go up in the six foot neon sign, I think that has a jarring effect on how consumers approach their, their spending.

[C]

And it's not like consumers were really gung ho to begin with, right? I mean sentiment is already pretty low, right?

[A]

Yes, yeah, absolutely. Heading, heading into 2026, consumer confidence dipped. You know, we've talked a lot about the case shaped economy, how higher income consumers are going to drive or are driving the bulk of spending in.

[D]

Yes.

[A]

What's interesting in my reporting, I learned that oil consumption is consistent across income households. So the average American, whether they're wealthy or poor, they spend around the same on oil. Right. So the maximum is like someone is driving three hours a day and probably not more than that. And so this means that as prices go up, it's going to be the lower income households that hurt the most because it's a bigger share of, of their wallet. And so when we're talking about, you know, retailers that are exposed, we're looking at retailers that are serving maybe a lower income customer.

[C]

Wow. So it could really turbocharge that K shaped economy that we're always talking about.

[A]

Yes, exactly.

[B]

Well, the other thing I just want to say, like anecdotally like fuel is up what, 50 cents a gallon or something like that I saw on the news this morning. It just doesn't, to cat's point, I don't feel motivated to go to, to the mall right now and buy things. There's, there's the geopolitical backdrop. You turn the nose news on that feels depressing. You ride by the gas station that feels 50 cents is not, doesn't sound like a lot, but, but if a tank is 40 bucks and now it's 50 or 60, that does make a difference psychologically. And I think it's hard to understate what people are feeling right now. And to Brian's point, just in terms of turbocharging that K shape. And I think it might be middle class, upper middle class down, not just the lower end.

[C]

Yeah.

[A]

I think there's also just anxiety around inflation, which is another word that's been in the conversation for what it's felt like years at this point. And there's actually debate on whether there will be inflation at a significant degree or not. I know that there's been some high profile interviews between the Fed and certain economists and from my reporting, my understanding is that if we do see inflation in apparel in particular, it will be in the latter half of the year. We're not going to see the effects yet. However, it's the consumer anxiety around inflation, even if inflation isn't here yet, that's going to affect how much they're willing, how much they're happy to spend on things like a pair of jeans.

[C]

So it's a lot like with the tariffs last year where companies have their stockpiles of clothing in their warehouses and stores and they work through that and you know, they, they take some measures early on, but then if, if oil prices stay high for a long time, eventually they have no choice but to pass that along.

[A]

Exactly. There's always a lag.

[B]

What about communication? Like similar to tariffs? We had all, we had a lot of debates editorially about how if at all fashion companies should be communicating to consumers around not the geopolitical backdrop but like expecting price increases, not Expecting price increases or simply like justifying the value of something special in this climate? Is there anything that you've heard so far about communication on this best practices right now?

[A]

I think we're just in very much the early days. The freight costs have not shown up as even a line item yet for a lot of retailers. Right. And so I think most people in the industry are, are observing the situation around tariffs. You know, I've spoken to some brands that communicated price increases and those went over really well, especially for smaller brands that are able to be very transparent about, hey, you know, we have this number of costs and you know, XYZ costs are now going up. I don't think though that it's entirely necessary. I think we have lived in this perpetual cycle state of volatile costs and raw materials, labor. All of these things are rising in the past couple of years. And I think there is a lot of understanding among consumers that, you know, costs are always rising. I also think that inflation in apparel has sort of leveled out in the past couple of years, you know, and, and the consumer has been quite resilient, at least in the US now in Europe, I've heard that with the impact of oil prices in Europe, it might be a whole nother conversation about consumer confidence. But at least in the US my hunch is that things will sort of chug along, at least for a while in 2026.

[C]

Yeah, it feels like that's what the markets are saying, even about the Iran war, with oil prices already giving up a lot of the gains that they've made these last couple of weeks. But I'm curious, a lot of what we've been talking about is that kind of short term spike scenario, but there's a whole other scenario where prices stay elevated for months, years, even if there's instability in the region. Maybe not quite at the level we saw on Sunday, but much higher than now. And I'm curious, Shaiza, I mean, are there changes that could happen to fashion supply chain if they can no longer be guaranteed cheap energy?

[D]

I think that's something that no one was able to fully answer outside of the fact that they think that the macroeconomic perspectives are going to have longer term repercussions for them in terms of consumer demand. And one of the things that came up with the cheap energy situation was that they think everyone's going to be in the same boat. And they think that it's going to be kind of, I guess, a spiral, if you will. That's kind of the terminology that came up, but it wasn't very clear as to, you know, that they're even foreseeing that they won't have access to cheap energy. They think it's going to be a short lived issue. I don't think it's something that they want to entertain and I think the level of distress was pretty clear from them.

[B]

Well, I feel like this also goes to show just how fragile from the tariffs to obviously something way more intense such as, you know, this geopolitical conflict, just how fragile these fashion supply chains are. Right. But I think we, that you, you mentioned that they might be resistant to having to, to like hoping that this goes away or that maybe they don' to face it. But some structural changes have to feel more urgent now, no?

[D]

Yeah, I would say so. I think what they're asking for and when you mentioned the structural chains, they're actually asking for their governments to kind of show up for them. Local governments I think play a pretty big role here when, when we're talking about supply chains that oftentimes it be falls on the back burner and manufacturers spoke to the suppliers spoke to this and associations spoke to this. So they're kind of expecting their governments to show up and do quote, unquote, whatever it takes to keep the industries alive at any cost. Because the, the other cost of it is that there major unemployment if factories shutter. And that's something that, you know, it's definitely possible, but I don't think it's something that people want to consider right now. I think they're trying to kind of just go over this obstacle or this blip, if you will.

[C]

And this is really speculative, but I wonder, I mean, do higher oil prices lead to swinging back toward natural fibers to make clothing? I recall in a past life I covered commodities for the Wall Street Journal

[B]

and don't be modest. Only for a decade. Right? Yeah.

[C]

Anyway, so one story I remember we did was that in the 2010s when oil was quite cheap, that was the moment that synthetic fabrics overtook cotton in the US Apparel mix. And that had reversed a trend in the other direction from the 2000s when oil was quite expensive. And it's been kind of in the back of my head here, you know, let's say oil prices don't come down again. Shaza. You cover sustainability in addition to supply chain. I mean, in a way there's, I hate to say a benefit, but potentially a benefit from a climate perspective. Right?

[D]

Yeah. I mean this is actually something I asked brands and suppliers and H and M actually came back and said that they're kind of phasing out of virgin fossil fuels from the material mix has actually been quite beneficial for them in these kind of situations because it's helped reduce dependency on fossil fuel energy in general. That being said, a lot of their transports are still done by sea. And that's more of like, I guess, a regional issue right now or a geographic issue. But they've definitely said that that's something that's helped them, I want to say, buffer out the fact that this polyester is being impacted right now and in terms of like regional impacts. Brian, you're asking about if it's going to increase our move towards cotton production. I don't know if that's particularly true because the cotton supply chain is so, I guess, isolated to certain parts of the world. It seems like lots of other big manufacturing countries. Take like China or Bangladesh, for example. They're still very polyester heavy. So I don't know if they kind of force that happening. Even if prices rise, I think they would have to find another way or maybe subsidizing through their national governments to make it work.

[A]

I also spoke to an analyst today who said he made a really good point. If we're looking at polyester versus cotton, that polyester as a byproduct of oil is sort of very far removed, like the byproduct end product, whereas cotton is just cotton. And so if there were volatility in cotton, the effects of it would be a lot more acute than for oil and polyester.

[C]

And what about renewables? I know that there's been a transition away from coal in certain parts of the supply chain, but it's also been pretty stubborn. Fossil fuels have been pretty stubbornly used in fashion manufacturing. Is there potential for that transition to accelerate because of this?

[D]

I mean, I think again, it goes to a country by country basis. So, for example, in places like India and Sri Lanka, that could definitely be the case because they're setting up kind of renewable infrastructure that's nationally subsidized that can definitely accelerate that. And then manufacturing, Indian, in fact, said that, you know, them having ability to have solar storage has really helped them. Whereas in Bangladesh, there's no facility or capacity for solar storage. Even if they have that, they can only use it during the daytime and they need to have diesel and fuel backup generators. So it's really going to create a lot of inequality in which manufacturing hubs are able to succeed and which have

[C]

to ride the wave or the war could end tomorrow. Or while we're recording this and none of this ends up mattering all that much in the long run.

[B]

Should we bring it to a close by sort of reflecting on what Brian just said, that we don't know if it's short term, it's going to be short lived or not. But is there anything that fashion leaders are underestimating when it comes to this story? Whether it's, you know, the oil itself or the human impact or something else? Even if it ends tomorrow, is there anything that could be residual here that this industry could be underestimating?

[A]

I think that we've had more than half a decade of just volatility starting with the pandemic. And I think a lot of retailers have actually made systemic changes to either their supply chain or their decision making infrastructure to be very nimble in the situation of crisis. This is a developing story of course, but it sort of pales in comparison to what retailers went through last year with the tariffs and again this year with the tariffs. So I actually think that the industry is at least on the consumer facing side of the industry. It's prepared.

[B]

Yeah, it's more resilient.

[D]

This is a conversation that's come up increasingly so which is this idea of these long term deals versus short term deals when you think about the supply chain side of things. And I think there is more momentum in the conversations about the value for brands and suppliers in kind of investing in long term contracts because of the amount of volatility geopolitically economically. Now whether or not that's going to take place and materialize is still kind of tbd. But I think in situations like these it's important for brands to increasingly consider these kind of contractual terms because at the end of the day we realize that when you're looking at the supply chain everything feels, isn't, is more connected than it ever was. And there was this idea of like hyperlocalization or you know, as Brian mentioned, like renewable energy. But all those things are still kind of in the process of being developed. Not all of them have scaled yet. So I still think for any executive sitting in Europe or the US thinking about how this is going to impact the fashion supply chain, I think it's increasingly important to consider kind of local dynamics for their suppliers and where their clothes are being manufactured because ultimately prices are going to get pushed up to consumers if they don't deal with it at that back end level.

[C]

That's a great point. I'm going to partially agree with you, Kat. I agree that the, the fashion industry is much more resilient than it was in 2019 but there is this fundamental difference between something like tariffs or even Covid and an energy shock. There's a certain physics involved. If you don't have oil, the lights don't turn on and the factory machines don't run and the ships don't go and it's almost unavoidable unless you make that renewables transition, which takes decades potentially. And so there's something a little different about this one. But I also don't think it's hit that level of tariffs or Covid yet where we all need to be freaking out either.

[B]

And I agree with everything that was just said. I, and I would just add, I would just add the human. I agree with everything that was just said. It was all great. And I would just add on the human bit of it. I think that, I think there is resilience in the, in the corporate side and the supply chain side, but also that the energy shock could be, is, is different. But I also think there's a human impact that's cumulative over like as a millennial, we've talked about like all the crises that we've lived through and I just think that people are maybe not as resilient as we sometimes believe. I think people are hurting and that I think that's gonna have a long term mental health fallout. That's hard to. It's hard to look at the news and have business as usual. I think for a lot of people, I think it should, that should not be underestimated for sure.

[A]

It's been actually really interesting being on this podcast with Shaiza and Shaiza and I working together on a story. This is the first time we've shared a byline. But it just struck me as how perspectives are where she is focusing with, you know, on the ground reporting, connecting with suppliers and manufacturers. And I have the luxury of being able to take a much bird's eye view, connecting with analysts that cover, you know, the retailers and the retailers themselves. And just the difference between these perspectives.

[B]

Right.

[A]

Like you feel the crisis much closer on Shayaza's end and there's this remove on the end that I'm covering. And I think to your point, Sheena, it's important to look at this from that very human on the ground angle versus, you know, what are retailers going to do when they lose profitability?

[C]

Yeah, that's a wonderful point and a good note to end on as well. I would say Shayza Kat, first of all, dream team, first violin together. But like, I can't. I think this is an excellent story. That you two did. Thank you so much for joining us today.

[A]

Thank you.

[D]

Thanks, Brian. Thanks, Sheena.

[B]

Please be sure to check out Shaiza and Kat's coverage [e-mail] these and other stories are available to BOF Professional subscribers only, and you can find the links in the episode notes. You've been listening to the debrief, produced and edited by Olivia Davies and Eric Brea. I'm Sheena Butler Young.

[C]

And I'm Brian Baskin. We'll be back next week with a new episode. Thanks so much for joining us and you. Thank. Be sure to follow us wherever you get your podcasts.

[E]

This episode is brought to you by

[C]

Progressive Insurance Fiscally Responsible Financial Geniuses, Monetary Magicians. These are things people say about drivers who switch their car insurance to Progressive and save hundreds. Visit progressive.com to see if you could save Progressive Casualty Insurance Company and affiliates. Potential savings will vary. Not available in all states or situations.

[E]

Hey, this is Adam Grant, host of ted's podcast Rethinking with Adam Grant. Let me share with you why smart finance leaders turn to Bill. They know that clarity isn't just helpful, it's strategic. As the intelligent finance platform, Bill uses AI to automate the busy work for nearly half a million businesses so they can focus on intentional growth, eliminate the friction and start scaling with the proven choice. Visit bill.compenven to talk with an expert about automating your business finance and get a $250 gift card as a thank you. That's bill.com proven terms and conditions apply. See Offer page for details.