← The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show
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This is an I Heart podcast.
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Guaranteed human the Joel Osteen Daily Podcast. God's plans for you are for good. Be inspired, get ready. God is about to exceed your expectations. Joel Osteen Daily Podcast. You are coming out of that dry place into more than enough daily encouragement right when you need it. There are opportunities in your future bigger than you can imagine. Listen to the Joel Osteen Daily podcast on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your favorite podcast.
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Let's dive into the Iran situation with all of the latest as up to the minute as I can get it to you here. So over the last 48 hours, set the background here. The fragile ceasefire between the US And Iran collapsed. As you know, we're now back into active military exchanges. This is not a slow burn. It is a rapid re escalation driven by Iranian attacks on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and a forceful response from President Trump, which is no surprise, of course, to anyone. Here's what's unfolded over the last few days. On July 7, Iran struck at least three commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Reports indicate one was a Qatari liquefied natural gas tanker that caught fire along with other flagged tankers. This was a direct violation of the understandings reached in the mid June memorandum, which had produced a pause, albeit a shaky one, in the fighting. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps effectively tested whether the United States would tolerate renewed harassment of international shipping. Washington's answer came quickly and hard. U.S. central Command launched a new round of Precision strikes on July 7, hitting more than 80 targets inside Iran. The strikes focused on degrading Iran's capability to threaten the Strait, air defense systems command and control nodes, coastal radar sites, anti ship missile batteries and more than 60 IRGC fast attack boats. CENTCOM described it as a powerful response and released video of the operation. The United States also immediately revoked the temporary license that had allowed Iran to sell oil. President Trump, attending the NATO summit in Turkey, made the political line crystal clear. The ceasefire is over, he stated. The US Attacked very powerfully last night and signaled that further action is on the table. If Iran continues to threaten shipping now, there could be strikes tonight, Trump has said strikes are likely tonight. We'll see. Iranian forces have responded by launching missiles and drones toward US Facilities in Bahrain and Kuwait, claiming strikes on dozens of sites and downing a US Drone. Air raid sirens sounded in those countries. Oil markets, of course, have reacted immediately to this Brent crude surge. Several dollars in a single session is now trading in the high 70s to low $80, low 80s dollar range with strong upward momentum. And there are other sharp gains in other markets. The revocation of the Iranian oil sales waiver and fresh fears of hormuz disruption have reintroduced a serious risk premium. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, which had been slowly recovering after the June agreement, is again under severe strain. Some maritime trackers are showing sharply reduced transits and effective constraints. Iran is once again asserting control and warning vessels to use routes it designates. The Strait remains the world's most critical energy chokepoint. Roughly 20% of global seaborne oil normally moves through it. Any sustained closure high risk environment sends immediate shockwaves through energy prices and supply chains. So as I sit here on the evening of July 8th with you, that's where it currently stands. Where is it going next? What are the likely paths forward? What happens now? I'll address that with you in a second. Our sponsor here. Super sure. Let me tell you something. When you sign your insurance policy, a lot of brokers treat that like the finish line, handshake commission done. Then you may not hear from them again until it's time for renewal. But your business runs all year. Shouldn't the people that are in charge of your policy. Super sure, my friends. They, they are the best. So if you're a company with more than 25 employees, whether the owner, CFO or HR manager, it can be too complex. You just buy a policy online. Super sure is a super agency built for you, licensed in every state for your business, insurance and employee benefits, all with year round support for you and your team. At super short.com you can access tools like Fine Print Facts, which translates your current policy into plain English so you can see what's covered and what's not. Plus a business value calculator so you can estimate what your business is worth so you know what actually needs protecting. Go to super sure.com buck one super agency. One powerful platform. All your policies in one place. Go to supershore.com buck that's super sure.com buck paid for by Super Shore Insurance Agency LLC. A license insurance Insurance Agency all right, back to Iran and the likely pathways forward given where things stand with the negotiations with Trump and the ongoing military conflict. Looking at the military realities, Iranian capabilities in American domestic politics and global energy stakes, here are the three most plausible scenarios as I see it. Number one, a sharp but limited exchange followed by pressured de escalation. Pressure de escalation. That's the most likely situation. The United States has already delivered a significant blow to Iran's Iran's anti shipping and air defense posture near the strait. Iran has shown it can still fire missiles at regional US targets but has so far avoided a full closure of Hormuz or strikes on major oil infrastructure. Both sides may now step back from the brink. The US has demonstrated resolve and restored deterrence on shipping. Iran has shown it retains some retaliatory capacity. Quiet back channels, possibly through Oman, Qatar or others, could produce a new narrower understanding focused on keeping the strait open in exchange for a pause in strikes. Oil prices could stabilize here, maybe in the mid-70s instead of a continued spike upwards. This is the ugly but manageable outcome if D.C. and Tehran both agree they don't want a wider war right now. So this is essentially the wash, rinse, repeat approach, meaning that strikes ok, let's talk talks will happen. Oil calms down, talks don't get where Trump needs them to be. More strikes. Now there is a question as to how many times you can go through that cycle before the American voter tires of it and there is a decision or there is a consensus reach that this is not sustainable politically here at home, especially going into the midterms. But the wash, rinse, repeat in the straight of Hormuz is the likeliest, at least I think for at least another cycle or two. Strikes, talks, talks break down. More strikes. We've already, because we've already seen this, we're really on the third or fourth iteration of that already. That's, that's one pathway. Pathway number two, a sustained U.S. pressure campaign. So this is if Iran continues probing or attempts to reassert control over the strait through further attacks on shipping, the United States could move to a more sustained and consistent and persistent campaign. This would involve repeated strikes on IRGC naval assets, missile production sites, possibly energy export infrastructure such as Kharg Island. If Hormuz threats intensify, goal would be to raise the cost of the Iranian to the Iranian regime until it accepts stricter limits on its ability to threaten international commerce and of course on the nuclear program. This path keeps the conflict more contained than a full regional war, but would produce higher and more volatile oil prices for weeks or months. Also carries the risk of Iranian proxy responses or miscalculation. Given the current rhetoric from the White House and the clear interest in protecting energy flows, this is a credible middle path. So this is instead of just a few days of strikes and then hey, let's talk. We give them strikes for a week or two, maybe longer than that to really ramp up the pressure. So think of this almost like the, the first path, but on steroids. Right. Just a stronger version of it to really degrade capabilities that the Iranians have further than they already are. So more U.S. airstrikes, more pressure, put the knee on the throat here of the Iranian military even more and hope that that creates a change in behavior. And then there is pathway three, which is major escalation and a broader conflict. So this is the highest risk and lowest probability outcome. But we should talk about it. If Iran decides that the regime's survival requires demonstrating it can close or severely disrupt the strait, or if it launches larger attacks on U.S. or allied targets, or if Trump just decides that his patience is totally gone, it could expand strikes significantly deeper into Iran and not just against military, but now against high value economic targets. This is where, when Trump talks about things like taking out desalinization plants, which of course is for water, you know, for water for them to be able to use in household and agriculture and drinking and everything else. Desalinization plants, power plants. Now you're talking about going after core Iranian infrastructure. This would have a massive, a devastating effect on the Iranian population and their day to day quality of life and their safety as well with all of this. So this would be a really big escalation. Now, Trump has talked about this, so this is not completely off the table at all, but I think this is the lowest likelihood. I'm not sure the Iranians find this to be credible as an option, which may mean that Trump decides to do it in part to establish it as credible and show that he's not messing around here. So they could be, in a sense, goading him into it by wrongly calling his bluff, because it's not a bluff. You could also see a greater involvement here for Israel because the Iranians, if they intensify their missile, missile barrages or they try to, let's say, activate proxies, Hezbollah, etc. You could have Israel decide that they're going to get more involved in the direct targeting of individuals, probably in the leadership cadre inside of Iran. And in this scenario, people will recognize that a more devastating and expanded American military strike package against Iran would disrupt oil even further. Because you'd be hitting oil infrastructure that could see oil spike above $100, which would mean global markets facing serious supply shocks and the possibility of proxies broadening the conflict out in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen. Although I think that's even less likely than some of these other things we've talked about here. It's still possible. This would be the most dangerous path, though, for sure, and would require a sustained political will in Washington and perhaps the willingness to suffer midterm losses as a result. I'm just saying this is possible. This option might be held until after we could see a combination of these different pathways. This option could be held until after the midterms, perhaps because then the Republicans wouldn't face so much in the way of backlash from voters on this. But all of this is within the realm of the possible. I'm not saying I expect any of this, but this is what could happen. The next 48 hours or so are going to tell us a lot. Are there any new Iranian major Iranian attacks on shipping? Do the US Strikes continue tonight, Wednesday night, or do they pause? If that's the case, we're probably going to look at pathway one here, which is strikes, negotiation. They'll go on for a while and then we have more strikes, then more negotiation. But if Iran really creates more threats in the strait scenario, two, I think becomes much more likely a much more plausible pathway. The core issue is simple and goes to the underlying strategy here. The United States cannot allow the world to hold an important energy corridor like this hostage. We also cannot allow Iran to get a nuclear weapon, according to Trump. So there's a red line that has been tested here and enforced with military force. And how Iran chooses to respond in the coming days is going to determine if this is just a short, sharp demonstration of American resolve or the beginning of a longer and more dangerous chapter in this saga. Let's all hope that this is going to peter out and that we no longer find ourselves wondering if this conflict with Iran is going to continue or not. Let's hope. Let's pray.
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Shields High the Joel Osteen Daily Podcast God's plans for you are for good. Be inspired. Get ready. God is about to expand your expectations. Joel Osteen Daily Podcast. You are coming out of that dry place into more than enough daily encouragement right when you need it. There are opportunities in your future bigger than you can imagine. Listen to the Joel Osteen Daily podcast on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your favorite podcasts.