Buck Brief - Trump Looks Ready to Send SEALs to Take Out Cuban Commies

Summary

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The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show

Episode: Buck Brief – Trump Looks Ready to Send SEALs to Take Out Cuban Commies
Date: May 22, 2026
Host: Buck Sexton

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Overview

In this episode of "The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show," Buck Sexton delivers a solo "Buck Brief" dissecting the Trump administration's new hardline posture towards the Cuban regime, centering on the dramatic Justice Department indictment of Raul Castro for the 1996 shootdown of two civilian planes. Buck explores the implications of this legal and diplomatic move, outlines four plausible scenarios for Cuba's immediate future, and analyzes how the revived "maximum pressure" campaign may influence both U.S. foreign policy and the fate of Cuba’s communist leadership. The briefing combines serious analysis with Buck’s signature irreverence and direct language.

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Key Discussion Points & Insights

1. Indictment of Raul Castro – "Justice Delayed is Delivered"

• [02:51] Buck announces the U.S. DOJ’s unsealing of an indictment against Raul Castro, charging him with conspiracy to kill U.S. nationals, multiple counts of murder, and destruction of aircraft, stemming from the 1996 shootdown of Brothers to the Rescue planes.
  • "This comes directly from the 1996 shoot down of two unarmed Brothers to the Rescue planes over international waters. This was an act of aviation piracy. This was, it was murder. Four men died that day…" ([03:17], Buck Sexton)
• Emphasizes that this indictment is not “symbolic theater,” but part of President Trump’s “deliberate maximum pressure strategy” since January 2025.
• Paints this as a reversal of the “Obama-Biden appeasement era,” claiming earlier U.S. engagement only strengthened the regime while dissidents suffered.

2. Trump’s Cuba Doctrine & Strategic Moves

• Sanctions, Blockades, and Isolation:

  • Energy blockade; no more Venezuelan oil post-Maduro.
  • Tariffs on fuel shipments to Havana.
  • Tightened sanctions targeting military-run businesses (claimed to control 60–70% of economy).
  • Visa bans and official designations to diplomatically isolate Cuban officials.

• Secretary of State Marco Rubio (notable shift): Buck stresses Rubio’s family experience with exile and his resolve, framing him as a high-stakes player in the administration's hardline push.

• Overall Goal: Political and economic liberalization—privatization, free Internet, human rights, open to U.S. investment ("...a post Castro Cuba that buys American energy and respects its people..." [~05:00]).

3. Social and Economic Breakdown in Cuba

• Cuba depicted as “reeling”—blackouts, shortages, and mass protests, all crushed “with thuggish violence.”
• Raul’s indictment “piles legal, moral and diplomatic pressure on top of that economic vice.”

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Four Plausible Scenarios for the Cuban Regime

Buck provides a strategic “war game” analysis of possible future outcomes:

Option 1: Negotiated Economic Deal with Limited Political Reform

• [07:06] Most likely near-term outcome (50% chance).
• The regime/elite accepts a "Trump-style" deal in exchange for phased sanctions relief:
  • Privatization of some state enterprises.
  • More U.S. investment.
  • Loosening of Internet controls.
  • Release of political prisoners (“a tranche”).
• “Diaz Canal stays as a figurehead. The military keeps its economic fiefdoms…” ([07:52], Buck Sexton)
• Leverages Raul's indictment as a bargaining chip—possibly drop/delay extradition in exchange for verified reforms.
• Notable quote:
  • “Cuba’s government, by the way, has historically survived by tactical retreats. But with China and Russia stretched thin, Havana has very few alternatives right now.” ([08:44], Buck Sexton)

Option 2: Regime Implosion and Managed Transition

• [09:13] “High impact scenario,” less likely (25% chance).
• Ongoing crises and the indictment worsen fractures within the military/provincial elites.
  • Defections, riots, succession chaos following Raul’s death or incapacitation.
• U.S. supports a “soft landing”—negotiated exile, interim technocratic government, rapid elections, massive aid for reforms.
• “This would echo Eastern Europe in maybe 1989…” ([10:03], Buck Sexton)

Option 3: Hardline Entrenchment and Proxy Escalation

• [11:01] Regime doubles down, blames U.S. “Yankee aggression,” seeks Russian/Chinese/Iranian support.
  • Increased repression, arrests, cyber attacks, blackouts, possible new immigration waves.
  • Raul’s indictment used to rally nationalism and justify intensified control.
• “Cuba has survived embargoes before, and unfortunately that is something we have to take into account here.” ([11:48], Buck Sexton)
• But, “post-Maduro, Venezuela limits Cuba’s options here.”

Option 4: Kinetic U.S. Operation—Direct Action

• [13:00] (Dramatic, lowest-probability “Maduro option”)
• U.S. special operations—SEAL Team Six or Delta Force—could directly target Cuban regime leaders if provoked (e.g., drone attacks on U.S. assets).
• “We send a bunch of badasses in with M4s… take out whoever is trying to use force to stop us from arresting indicted Raul Castro…” ([13:12], Buck Sexton)
• Could involve “military infrastructure, targeted strikes, cyber operations,” and limited armed opposition support.
• Emphatic, memorable language:
  • “We own your ass. Like, we’re coming for you if we have to. This is not going to go well for you, and you’re either going to end up in prison or dead…” ([14:00], Buck Sexton)
  • “Plata y plomo, which I think means lead or silver, is very clear.” ([13:58], Buck Sexton)
• Urges that true change is only possible if the communist regime gives up power and grants freedom to Cubans.

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Memorable Quotes & Tone

• “This indictment is not symbolic theater... it is part of a deliberate maximum pressure strategy the Trump administration has executed...” ([04:00], Buck Sexton)
• “Raul’s indictment piles legal, moral and diplomatic pressure on top of that economic vice.” ([05:47], Buck Sexton)
• “[Cuba is] an unsinkable aircraft carrier of communism and anti-American aggression forever. I think we’re done with this, so we’ll see how long the commies can float, so to speak.” ([14:40], Buck Sexton)
• “Carrots and sticks…plata y plomo… The Trump administration is telling the people who have held Cuba hostage … We own your ass.” ([13:58–14:10], Buck Sexton)

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Timestamps for Important Segments

• [02:51] – Indictment of Raul Castro announced and context on 1996 Brothers to the Rescue downing.
• [04:30] – Overview of sanctions, energy blockade, and U.S. pressure campaign.
• [05:35] – Cuba’s internal crisis: blackouts, protests, regime repression.
• [07:06] – Option 1: Negotiated economic deal.
• [09:13] – Option 2: Regime implosion and transition.
• [11:01] – Option 3: Hardline entrenchment and proxy escalation.
• [13:00] – Option 4: U.S. direct action (“kinetic” operation).
• [14:00] – Buck’s closing assessment of the Trump administration’s threat and intent toward the Cuban communist regime.

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Conclusion

Buck Sexton’s “Buck Brief” sketches a dramatic, muscular shift in U.S. policy toward Cuba under a second Trump administration. In rapid-fire, unfiltered language, he connects Raul Castro’s indictment to larger geopolitical shifts: closing off Cuba’s economic lifelines, isolating the regime diplomatically, and openly threatening U.S. military action. With memorable quips and colorful scenarios, Buck frames the episode as a moment of reckoning for “Cuban commies”—and a potential turning point for freedom in Cuba, should Trump’s “maximum pressure” strategy work as intended.

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Transcript

[Buck Sexton]

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for the Trump administration and what's happening next with Cuba. And actually just got my hair cut by a bunch of Cuban Americans this morning and they're certainly very dialed into the situation. You'll see this if you're watching this on the YouTube, please go subscribe to my YouTube channel. But ladies and gentlemen, we have now the United States Department of Justice unsealing an indictment charging Raul Castro, who's 94 years old and the man who has ruled Cuba from the shadows since after his brother Fidel passed away with conspiracy to kill US Nationals, multiple counts of murder and destruction of aircraft. So this comes directly from the 1996 shoot down of two unarmed brothers to the rescue planes over international waters. This was an act of aviation piracy. This was, it was murder. Four men died that day. Three American citizens and one US resident, Carlos Costa, Armando Alejandro Jr, Murillo de la Pena and Pablo Morales. These were humanitarian heroes searching for rafters, fleeing tyranny. And Cuban MiG fighter planes under Raul's direct command as head of the armed forces blew them out of the sky, totally helpless planes in international airspace for 30 years. Justice was delayed on this. Today under President Trump, it is delivered. So this indictment is not symbolic theater. It is part of a deliberate maximum pressure strategy the Trump administration has executed since January 2025. President Trump reversed the Obama Biden appeasement era, those failed policies that flooded Cuba with tourism dollars and remittances while the regime jailed dissidents and exported doctors as slave labor. Instead, we have an energy blockade. No more Venezuelan oil after Maduro's removal, tariffs on any nation shipping fuel to Havana. Tighten sanctions on the military owned enterprises that control 60 to 70% of the Cuban economy. Visa bans and designations that isolate Cuban officials as complicit in this repression. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, whose family knows the pain of exile firsthand, has been crystal clear on this. Cuba's economy is broken, its government can't fix it, and dramatic change is the only path forward. So the goal here, my friends, is political and economic liberalization. That means privatization, foreign investment, a free Internet, human rights, and really just a post Castro Cuba that buys American energy and respects its people. The regime already in Cuba is reeling as we know, we got nationwide blackouts, fuel shortages, mass protests that of course are just repressed with thuggish violence. Raul's indictment piles legal, moral and diplomatic pressure on top of that economic vice. So now the big question, what happens next? I want to break down for you now four plausible scenarios grounded in the realities of Cuban politics. And of course, taking into account US leverage and the historical patterns of what has and has not worked here. I'm going to break them down for you in just a moment. But first, from our sponsor, Birch Gold Group. When there are supply chain issues for commodities, prices surge. You see this with oil. And guess what, it's true of gold too. Now, why are people buying up gold? I don't know. $40 trillion in US debt, central banks all over the world, and certainly our own, our own government know that gold can't be printed. And so they're buying up gold and that drives the price higher. So if you've been thinking about gold that never moved your savings into physical gold, Birch Gold Group is who I trust to help you. Now through May 29, Birch Gold is giving first time gold buyers a rebate of up to $10,000 on qualifying purchases. Text my name, Buck to the number 989898 to see if you qualify for a first time gold buyer rebate of up to $10,000. Again, text Buck to 98. 9898 today. All right, the different pathways here with the Cuban regime, let's walk through a few of them. Option one, a negotiated economic deal with limited political reform. This is the maybe most likely near term path. I'd give this a 50% probability. So the regime led by Miguel Diaz Canal has is still influenced by Raul Castro's inner circle, though in the military he finally says, ok, we give. Facing collapse. Remember, this is one option. With the blackouts, the empty shelves, defections of some of the elites, they sit down for a Trump style deal. In exchange for phased sanctions relief and resumed oil flows, perhaps routed through US approved channels. Cuba agrees to privatize some state enterprises, allow more US investment in tourism and agriculture, loosen Internet controls and release a tranche of political prisoners. Diaz Canal stays as a figurehead. The military keeps its economic fiefdoms, but opens them to American partners. So this really mirrors Trump's first term approach and his Venezuela playbook. Minus of course, the dramatic mission in the middle of the night to grab Maduro, although we'll get to that. But this is pressure that yields pragmatism. Raul's indictment gives the US a powerful bargaining Chip. They can offer to drop or delay extradition demands in return for verifiable steps. Cuba's government, by the way, has historically survived by tactical retreats. But with China and Russia stretched thin, Havana has very few alternatives right now. So I would say we could see this happen in just a matter of the next three to six months. Okay, that's one option. Let's look at option two. Regime implosion and then a managed transition. This is a high impact scenario, a little less likely, but still possible. Maybe a 25% probability. Sustained energy starvation plus the symbolic gut punch of Raul's indictment accelerates internal fractures here. The Cuban military and security services, already stretched thin, going to face loyalty tests. Protests will swell, blackouts trigger ongoing riots. Key generals or provincial leaders defect or negotiate directly with the U.S. and so Raul Castro, at 94 and indicted, becomes a liability. And his death or incapacitation could trigger a major fight, a succession throwdown, if you will, chaos after he passes. So the US quietly supports a soft landing here. Exile, negotiations for passage for top figures, technocratic interim government, rapid elections, and massive American aid and investment package tied to free market reforms. So this would echo Eastern Europe in maybe 1989, where you had an economic crisis plus a loss of a patron here. Venezuela, external pressure, plus you have Guantanamo Bay. Gitmo is a US anchorage. And drone intel has already shown us that Cuba's asymmetric options are extremely limited here. So this is, I think, a pretty possible, not super possible. And then we have option three, hardline entrenchment and proxy escalation. So this is just essentially Cuba. The regime just hangs on and just suffers and suffers. The regime doubles down. Diaz, Canel and remaining Castro loyalists rally around nationalism. They blame, of course, Yankee aggression and lean harder on Russia. Russia and China are now their most important patrons. Iran to some degree, to to get drones, advisors and smuggling routes to try to bypass the US blockade. The repression intensifies, more arrests, Internet blackouts, possible immigration waves, and whatever hybrid warfare the communists in Cuba can concoct. Raul's indictment is spun as a declaration of war, justifying these emergency measures. So Cuba has survived embargoes before, and unfortunately that is something we have to take into account here. But post Maduro, Venezuela limits Cuba's options here. They don't have the nearby lifeline economically and for energy purposes they did before. So this is something that. This would be tough. Maybe Cuba can pull this off, but it's unlikely. Before I get into the final option, which is the one where things go boom, perhaps in the middle of the night where some of our extremely skilled operators, Delta Tier one, maybe Seal Team six goes in and little knock on the door. Perhaps some flashbangs to show some of these communist scumbags in Cuba who's really calling the shots. We'll get to that in a second. Our sponsor here is Super Sure. How many brokers does it take to insure your business? If you're like most business owners, the answer is too many. Multiple policies, multiple applications, and no clear view of how it all fits together. And when questions come up, it's not easy to get the clarity you need. But super sure changes that. One broker for all your business insurance, backed by a team that works with you year round, not just at renewal. And if you ever stared at a policy wondering what it covers, super sure has a fine print facts tool that will translate the legal jargon into plain English. 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So people have said what if the, what if the Cuban regime deploys drones against US assets or does something to trigger this? I don't think they're going to do that. That, that would be just insane. We might decide to go in with guns though. Guns blazing, so to speak. We also might put though military infrastructure, targeted strikes, cyber operations, perhaps some limited support for armed opposition, although I think that's unlikely. But going to get the senior level folks at the top of the communist hierarchy here. And I mean going to get them like sending in our elite operators with, you know, with whatever air cover, whatever they need to just go into the presidential palace or whatever they call it and grab these guys and bring them to the US where they get to sit and rot in federal prison for the rest of whatever their life is going to be. That, I think, is the option here. And also, you know, some of them might just get waxed, so to speak, if they decide that they're going to be part of taking up arms against our guys, that could happen, too. So I think the carrots and sticks here, or as they would say in Spanish, plata y plomo, which I think means lead or silver, is very clear. The Trump administration is telling the people who have held Cuba hostage for all these decades and still do to this day, we own your ass. Like, we're coming for you if we have to. This is not going to go well for you, and you're either going to end up in prison or dead or. Or you can give up running this Cuban Mafia state and start to treat the people of your island like human beings and give them some freedom and some basic rights and voting. And then we. Then we can start to play ball and make things better for you. I think it's brilliant strategy. I certainly hope that it works. And I don't think Trump is messing around on this one. I don't think Marco Rubio, the Secretary of State's messing around either. I think he sees this as critical because it's the right thing to do and it's a smart thing to do as well. We don't need some island 90 miles from the coast of Florida. It's a pretty big island, too. We don't need some island to be an unsinkable aircraft carrier of communism and anti American aggression forever. I think we're done with this, so we'll see how long the commies can float, so to speak. Thanks for staying through the show here. Shield Tie.

[Martha Stewart]

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