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John Lefebvre
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How's Trump looking on the tariff and financial front? We're going to talk to our friend John Lefebvre about this right now. He is formerly a guy who had a great book Straight to Hell and of the banking world. And he knows the finance stuff and he's always out there in the capitalist world doing what he does, moving and shaking. And John, the tariff thing today, you know, now that signal gate has passed as the thing we all are supposed to pretend to care about. Tell me how you think this tariff thing is going to shake out and what you're seeing so far. You know, the good, the bad, the ugly, all of it.
Okay. It's like everything else right now that we're looking at, it's just noise, right? And so the way I look at the tariff thing, the United States and I don't want to be redundant and kind of spout off, you know, the President's talking points, but we clearly have been ripped off for decades on this front. And if you look at our approach to trade, even currently, we're behind every other developed nation. So all we're talking about is equalized, equalizing the playing field or even just a threat of equalizing the playing field. And it, in terms of rhetoric and as a talking point has already borne fruit for the administration. So every time the stock market goes up or goes down as it relates to the terrorists, it's kind of, kind of pointless. Because if you think about the alternative where we were right, GDP that was dependent on basically deaths and spending and illegal immigration make any of the changes that need to happen, there's going to be some turbulence. And so it just seems like it's noise from my perspective. I mean, I don't spend too much time worrying about tariffs. We're seeing the investment come back to the United States long term. So fine, there's going to be some short term pain, maybe there'll be some retaliation or things like that that will be negotiated out. But long term, the alternative to what we are experiencing right now was basically the total collapse of the country. And so we don't have a choice but to go through this, this, call it pain or call it whatever you want to call it, but we have no other alternative than to take the steps that the administration is taking right now.
Are you worried, are you worried that this, all this talk of recession might actually come to be. Do you view that as something that might be, some, might be a reset that needs to happen? Like, because here, here's, here's where it is. We haven't had a real recession in a very long time. And if I remember my history correctly, Reagan, to fix the mess of inflation and to deal with rates and everything. I think there was a short, a short, a short recession in the beginning of Reagan's first term and then like a 20 year economic boom, basically. Right, because they had to clear out some of the, the cobwebs in the system, if you will, get rates, get rates under control, get, well, get inflation under control, using rates as a tool. Do you feel like that's the path or is it going to be easier than that? I mean, you know, you're a banker guy. Tell me the things. What would Lloyd Blankfein say?
Here's the problem, right? So two things, and I hate to be pessimistic because obviously I'm a huge supporter of the country and certainly the administration. So I'm always cheering for the success of America. But you have two, I think, things that are worth thinking about. The Deep State has tried everything to eliminate Donald Trump, right? Kill him, shoot him, impeach him, remove him from the ballot, bankrupt him, arrest him. What is there one remaining tool other than framing Pete Hegseth and Signal Gate and other Bogus stuff like that. Tanking the economy is one of the tools at their disposal. And how do you do that? It's undermining consumer confidence. Because if consumer confidence goes down, then capital investment goes down, investment goes down, spending goes down, especially on the consumer side, hiring goes down. And so every time I see a media headline about how the economy is struggling or we're facing a recession, it almost becomes a self fulfilling prophecy that you have to fight against because you know, that is the media propagandizing against the Trump administration. So that's one important point, I think, to keep in mind that in terms of consumer confidence, the media is going to do everything they can to undermine Trump, which includes torpedoing the economy. Okay, that aside, if you look at what Trump inherited, it's an absolute mess, right? Auto loans, delinquencies, credit card debt, mortgage rates, the dislocation between housing afforded, the property market's totally dislocated. And if you look at employment, the employment for the last two years was driven or three years was driven by government spending, government hiring, people working multiple jobs, and illegal immigration. So if you're trying to fix the system and bring us back from what, again, as I said before, is the brink of total collapse, there's going to be some pain. I mean, we are a country that has been addicted to kind of helicopter money from the, from the Federal Reserve. And so if you're going to shrink the government by 2 or 3 trillion dollars, if you're going to fire half a million or a million government employees, there's going to be some pain, but there's no other alternative. And so I think all these forces, again, I wish and I hope that the Trump economy is going to be prosperous. And I think with a lot of the things that Doge is doing and a lot of things that we're doing on the technological side and with respect to getting out of foreign wars and things like that, you know, restoring manufacturing and getting invested in the United States, those are all great for restoring the middle class in America. But if we weren't taking any of those steps, then you wouldn't have a middle class in five years, you would not have a middle class in America. Because, you know, with AI, what it's doing in terms of every, you know, 80% of every banking job or consulting job, or 80% of lawyers or consultants or whatever it is, AI is going to completely transformed beyond our comprehension everything that's happening. And if we had gone into that with any of the problems that, without addressing any of the problems that this administration walked into, we would be completely destroyed as a country. And so it's going to be complicated, it's going to be turbulent. But I think it's okay to say that you will have short term pockets of opportunity and a lot of turbulence. And long term, obviously I would be exceptionally bullish, but it's certainly not going to be without some pain. And we certainly the pain is long overdue. I mean decades. Forget Biden or Trump won or Obama. I mean this is decades in the making. It goes back 20, 20 plus years in terms of the US kicking the can down the road for way too long. And thankfully, you know, we have guys like Elon in there who say, okay, well we have to address it now or never.
Yeah, I know. I think what Elon's doing is absolutely a critical service for the country. Our sponsor here is Birch Gold. You know, we're just talking about the structural problems of the economy, too much debt, too much spending from the government, and one way that you can hedge, one way that you can prepare for an uncertain future and look to tend to your own financial, financial realities is with gold. And purchasing gold continues to be a priority for more Americans than ever. Using cash that's in your savings account or already tucked away in a 401k, those are the easiest options. And Birch Gold is there to help you with volatility ahead. The markets are going to get choppy. You know it, we all know it. Birch Gold is there for you. That's who I rely on for my gold purchases. They helped me with my latest gold purchase just a few weeks ago and they specialize in helping you convert an existing IRA or 401k into a tax sheltered IRA and physical gold for no money out of pocket. Get your free info kit on gold by texting my name buck to the number 9898 98. No obligation, just useful information. Text Buck to 9898 98. Get a free info kit on gold today from Birch Gold Group. John, do you feel like the corporate America, you know, we've been talking a lot this week about the Disney snow white disaster. It's amazing that Disney, if you had held Disney stock in a in continuously for the last 10 years, you would have made no money, right? It just sat, I mean maybe a little bit on dividends. You look at inflation though, I mean you've basically been flat for 10 years. If you held for the last 10, which is astonishing considering the growth that you've seen. A lot of other companies, entertainment companies, et cetera, is the switch real, you know, with. With Bezos and Zuckerberg and these people that are coming around to at least be reasonable toward Trump and his supporters. Do you feel like others are going to be joining and that we're in a new era, or is this kind of a head fake? Until they can figure out how they're going to start telling half the country that they don't want their business again?
There's two things on that. So on the. On the Snow White thing, you know, the pipeline for making movies obviously takes years and years and years. I mean, I sold my movie rights to my book a long time ago and worked through iterations of the script. That took years. And then we killed it because they destroyed it with. They had. They actually made unrelated. You know, unrelated to Snow White. I guess I'll just tell you. So my book is about deviants on Wall street, about my personal experiences. I sold the rights to Paramount, and we worked through several iterations of the script. I got it back. I wasn't even the main character in the movie. They had created a minority woman to be the main character, and I played her mentor. And I was the deviant scumbag banker with no morals or ethics. And she redeems me.
Oh, my gosh.
That was. That's what they took out of my book and made with Paramount as a movie. And I said, guys, I don't want any part of this. So that was several years in the making, and thankfully, they killed it. I didn't want any part of it. But. So the Snow White, they probably, what, they shot it two years ago. They thought Kamala was going to win even after they edited it. So they made their bed, they had a line, they got screwed. So I don't think that's an indication in 2025 of kind of woke entertainment culture, actually. I think just that's a lagging indicator because they're at least a year and a half, two years behind where things are shifting or have already shifted. But to your second point, about Zuckerberg, I'm reminded of this all the time. He sounds awesome. He's at MMA fights. He's wearing gold chains. He's wearing sunglasses. He looks.
He looks like. He looks like Vanilla Ice. It's amazing when you see this guy all of a sudden. Yeah, yeah.
And he's. He's libertarian. He's doing all this great stuff. But there's a simple thing you have to ask yourself. If Kamala Harris had won, would Mark Zuckerberg be doing this? No. He would be censoring. And propagating on behalf of the regime. I think the total scam. And Mark Zuckerberg has donated billions of dollars to progressive causes. Has he given. So, fine. He said one cool. This drives me insane. All these guys, like, they want to. It's like when Bill Maher said something critical of the Democrat Party and he gets propped up all over Twitter X. It drives me insane. It doesn't mean anything. Mark Zuckerberg has done absolutely nothing. So, fine, he wore a gold chain, he flew an American flag, and he went to visit Mar? A Lago. But you have to guarantee. I guarantee it. If Kamala had won, he would be canceling accounts.
Yeah. So they're just going. They're just going with the wind. They're just going where the power is right now. You don't think there's any real. Because. Because Elon has been very open about this. He's had an ideological transformation, and he's been very specific about how it was his. His son being trans. Essentially, he just said, war. Now it's war. You know, they've. They've taken a son from me with this madness. So Elon is a true believer in insanity. Now, some of these other corporate titans, though, I think are. Yeah.
Certainly suspect Elon's the real deal, obviously. I mean, I love. I love what Elon is doing. How could you not? And, in fact, that's a good litmus test. Anyone who doesn't appreciate what Elon is doing is either a liar, mentally ill, or exceptionally low iq. Date Bill Ackman, David Sachs.
Yeah.
You know, a lot of guys are doing some. Some good things, but when it comes to, like, Jeff Bezos, I just. I heard this on my. My phone when, you know, I was working out earlier today. Bezos is running small business ads on it. They're so full of it. Bezos, all of it. Zuckerberg's, all of it. I mean, I can't think of who else is pretending to be in the. In the Trump camp, but you can tell. You can tell who the real people are and who are the opportunists. And Zuckerberg, I could be wrong, but as far as I can tell, is an opportunist.
Are the power players on Wall Street. I mean, I know you were a Wall street guy for a long time, and you've escaped that realm, but are the power players on Wall street, to your knowledge, ideologically aligned with the Democrats or purely opportunistic in their alignment with Democrats?
That's really interesting, actually. I found that the support of Donald Trump, like going Back to like 2016, my friends in banking didn't want to support him, and it was almost like an intellectual snobbery. Like they, they thought he was vulgar and crass and they couldn't get behind him. There's been a little bit of a shift. So there's kind of one component where he never quite fit in with that kind of Manhattan elite. The other issue I found too, to be honest, this is actually quite weird. Most of my friends, wives are super liberal, and as a result, I find that they're. I think this would surprise you. I think Wall street is more liberal than you would expect. And a lot of it has to do with people just placating their wives or they're just, I think they're, they don't care because it doesn't, it doesn't impact. I've had so many conversations with people where they said, well, I don't care who the President is, it doesn't impact me. And so there's just that it's combination of arrogance and there's also like a pushback against populism because these people define who they are based on what they do for a living. And so when I really got turned on to populism in say, 2015, 2016, nobody could understand it because they only define themselves on where they went to school, school, what they do for a living, and how much money they make. So they find it kind of repulsing. It almost validates themselves as human beings because that's how they define themselves by the fact that they have their diplomas on the wall and they went to Ivy League schools and they live in Greenwich, Connecticut. And that is why I think they've been reluctant. Combine that with the fact that their wives are all SSRI addicted liberals, why there has been not a huge amount of support from, from Wall street for, for Trump. And so, I mean, this part of that is just me being cynical because, I mean, I have complete disregard for the entire industry and everything that they, they, they stand for. And so, okay, don't. I don't have a lot of respect for any of these people, to be honest. They're, you know, deviant and corrupt. And again, there's just not, not good, not good human beings because it just goes back to take yourself too seriously and define yourself by what you do for a living.
Not a good start. Yeah, not, not a good place to be. John Lefebvre, a patriot, a good man. Go check out Straight to Hell. His book, Follow him on X. His last name is L E F E V R E For those who are wondering, Lefebvre. Thank you, John, for being with me as always, man. Good to talk to you.
Yeah, absolutely. Talk to you soon.
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Buck Sexton
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The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show: Episode Summary
Episode: Buck Brief - Trump Will Win Any Global Trade War
Release Date: March 28, 2025
Host: Buck Sexton
Guest: John Lefebvre
Duration: Approximately 20 minutes
In this episode of The Clay Travis and Buck Sexton Show, Buck Sexton engages in a thought-provoking discussion with John Lefebvre, a former banking professional and author of the book Straight to Hell. They delve into the intricacies of Donald Trump's economic policies, particularly focusing on tariffs, the potential for a global trade war, and the broader implications for the American economy.
Discussion Highlights: John Lefebvre provides an in-depth analysis of President Trump's tariff policies, addressing both their immediate and long-term impacts on the U.S. economy.
Notable Insights:
Economic Noise and Long-Term Benefits: Lefebvre characterizes the current discourse around tariffs as "noise," suggesting that while short-term turbulence is inevitable, the long-term outlook is positive with increased domestic investment.
"When consumer confidence goes down, then capital investment goes down, investment goes down, spending goes down, especially on the consumer side..." [03:00]
Media Influence on Economic Perception: He criticizes the media for undermining Trump's administration by propagating headlines that portray the economy as unstable, potentially creating a self-fulfilling prophecy of economic downturn.
"Every time I see a media headline about how the economy is struggling or we're facing a recession, it almost becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy..." [04:30]
Necessity of Current Policies: Lefebvre emphasizes that Trump's economic measures are essential to prevent a "total collapse of the country," acknowledging the short-term pain but underscoring the lack of viable alternatives.
"We have no other alternative than to take the steps that the administration is taking right now." [05:15]
Discussion Highlights: The conversation shifts to the looming threat of a recession and whether it might serve as a necessary reset for the American economy.
Notable Insights:
Historical Context: Lefebvre references Reagan's approach to dealing with inflation and economic challenges, suggesting that short-term recessions can lead to prolonged economic booms.
"I think there was a short recession in the beginning of Reagan's first term and then like a 20-year economic boom..." [03:45]
Structural Economic Issues: He points out inherited economic problems such as auto loan delinquencies, credit card debt, and housing market dislocations, which necessitate painful adjustments.
"If you're trying to fix the system and bring us back from what is the brink of total collapse, there's going to be some pain." [07:20]
Discussion Highlights: Buck Sexton and Lefebvre explore recent struggles within corporate America, particularly focusing on Disney's challenges and the broader entertainment industry's alignment with political ideologies.
Notable Insights:
Disney's Financial Struggles: Lefebvre critiques Disney's stagnant stock performance over the past decade, attributing it to internal mismanagement and misguided content decisions.
"If you had held Disney stock in continuously for the last 10 years, you would have made no money, right? It just sat." [10:15]
Wokeness in Entertainment: He discusses the cancellation of his adapted book into a movie by Paramount, citing ideological conflicts as a primary reason.
"They destroyed it... I said, guys, I don't want any part of this. So that was several years in the making, and thankfully, they killed it." [12:30]
Corporate Opportunism: Lefebvre expresses skepticism towards corporate leaders like Mark Zuckerberg, suggesting their public shifts in ideology are opportunistic rather than genuine.
"Mark Zuckerberg has donated billions of dollars to progressive causes. He went to visit Mar-a-Lago. I guarantee if Kamala had won, he would be canceling accounts." [14:05]
Discussion Highlights: The conversation acknowledges Elon Musk's genuine commitment to transformative change, contrasting him with other tech leaders deemed opportunistic.
Notable Insights:
Elon's Authenticity: Lefebvre praises Elon Musk's dedication to technological advancement and his personal motivations, viewing him as a true agent of change.
"Elon is a true believer in insanity. Now, some of these other corporate titans, though, I think are...opportunists." [15:20]
Libertarian Leanings: He observes Musk's libertarian stance and how it aligns with broader economic and technological goals, distinguishing him from peers.
"He's libertarian. He's doing all this great stuff." [13:50]
Discussion Highlights: Lefebvre provides insights into the political inclinations of Wall Street professionals, highlighting a surprising level of liberalism despite Trump's presidency.
Notable Insights:
Liberal Dominance: Contrary to expectations, Lefebvre finds that Wall Street remains predominantly liberal, influenced by personal relationships and societal norms.
"I find that Wall Street is more liberal than you would expect. A lot of it has to do with people just placating their wives..." [16:10]
Resistance to Populism: He explains the resistance among Wall Street elites to populist movements like Trump's, attributing it to their self-identity tied to elite institutions and professions.
"They define themselves based on what they do for a living... so when I really got turned on to populism in say, 2015, 2016, nobody could understand it." [17:00]
Cynicism Towards the Industry: Lefebvre expresses a strong disdain for Wall Street's practices and ethical standards, reinforcing his alignment with Trump's policies as a corrective measure.
"I have complete disregard for the entire industry and everything that they stand for. They're deviant and corrupt." [18:30]
Buck Sexton wraps up the conversation by highlighting John Lefebvre's contributions and promoting his book, Straight to Hell. Lefebvre encourages listeners to follow him on social media for further insights.
"John Lefebvre, a patriot, a good man. Go check out Straight to Hell." [19:37]
The episode offers a critical analysis of Trump's economic policies, the challenges facing corporate America, and the ideological battles within Wall Street. John Lefebvre provides a candid perspective on the necessity of difficult economic reforms and the pervasive influence of media and corporate interests in shaping public perception and policy.
Key Quotes:
John Lefebvre on Tariffs:
"We don't have a choice but to go through this, this, call it pain or call it whatever you want to call it..." [05:00]
On Media's Role:
"The media is going to do everything they can to undermine Trump, which includes torpedoing the economy." [04:30]
On Corporate Opportunism:
"Mark Zuckerberg has donated billions of dollars to progressive causes... I guarantee if Kamala had won, he would be canceling accounts." [14:05]
On Wall Street's Liberalism:
"Wall Street is more liberal than you would expect... combining arrogance and a pushback against populism." [17:00]
This comprehensive summary encapsulates the core discussions of the episode, providing listeners with valuable insights into the economic strategies under Donald Trump's administration, the state of corporate America, and the nuanced political dynamics within Wall Street.