A (4:50)

I mean, what does that look like? How does this become MacArthur in Japan circa, you know, end of World War II instead of Bremer in Iraq circa 2003?

B (5:06)

Well, number one, it seems like the Secretary of State is and our national security adviser, Marco Rubio, are working with the Vice President who's now the acting head of Venezuela. And that is very, very different than what debaathification was in Iraq. And it's sort of disappointing to people who are activists and wanted an immediate transition to democracy. I would count myself among those that would like to see it move in that direction faster. And we may yet. I do think some kind of a legitimate national election has to be on the horizon as part of this transition. That's where this controversy really originated. Maduro lost the last election in Venezuela by a lot and yet kept power, and the legitimate winner was pushed into exile. So that's how we end up where we are. He's not the legitimate head of the government. And that's also different from what we faced in Iraq and Libya and elsewhere, where you had long established dictators that were running their countries.

A (6:16)

Yes. I mean, I, I think that, for one thing, you're not going to have even the most devoted Maduro thugs strapping suicide vests on and running into crowded marketplaces like, that's not, that's not a thing. That's not going to happen.

B (6:31)

That's the acid test. Exactly.

A (6:33)

Yeah. So. So this notion that, oh, we're making the same mistake, that's minimally, I think, is, Is an absurdity. And also, I think that for the people. As a guy who lives in South Florida, you're obviously, you, you, you know the Florida scene well, but you're a little bit to my north South Florida. We have a ton. You probably have a lot of Venezuelans in the Tampa area, too. We have a ton of Venezuelan refugees down here. And there's no debate among Venezuelans who have come to this country. Chavez, Maduro ruined their country. I mean, this is not, it's not like we're stomping in there and there's some big constituency that says, no, he actually is doing a good job. No, we let the test run itself out. And economically, security side, international, you name it. It's hard to think of a faster way to ruin a country or, or a more thorough ruining of a country than what the Chavista Maduro apparatus accomplished in Venezuela.

B (7:30)

That's absolutely true. Really, over the last 25 years, there have been a lot of Venezuelans in a lot of American cities. There's plenty in the D.C. area, as witnessed recently in New York. There's ple of people. And while the teachers unions and others might have organized in protest for Trump's action, Venezuelans almost universally were just saying thank you and celebrating that this thug was removed. They, more than anybody, know that there's still much more to go. But Venezuela was a very beautiful, wealthy, successful country. A lot of Americans really don't have the perspective that it's only like 450 miles to American territory in Puerto Rico and it's only like the distance between Denver and D.C. to get from Caracas to Miami. And so this is not that far away. You throw into the mix the links of, just like you mentioned, the Venezuelans that are in Miami, the Free Cuba constituency and the Free Venezuela constituency are very simpatico and very similar. And just like there were Cubans that were killed in this raid mixed in with the wrong side, there are a lot of Cubans and Venezuelans in the United States that are mixed in together on the right side of this. And that's a constituency that should matter. And as long as we aren't sending in an occupation force and trying to send the next generation of Americans to provide police work inside of Venezuela, then we're staying, I think, clear where we're using the leverage we have. President Trump's made clear we're going to use the oil for revenue. And that is also a glide path to a different trajectory in whatever deal is struck. Even if we don't get anything out of the oil, denying it to Russia, China and others has an impact and the demonstration effect of what the United States is capable of doing. And I think it's been undervalued that if America was going to let the revisionist bad guys of the world muck around in our own backyard, then they didn't really believe we were going to do very much in our distant abroad. So if you're wondering how a China or a Russia or an Iran looks at this, it might not change all of their calculus, but it shows. Well, if America is really serious about fixing its border and holy cow, did we do a job on that, and we're serious about fixing our neighborhood and pushing it into the right direction, I do have to think twice about whether America is ready to use force to shape things in my neighborhood, too.

A (10:15)

You think we're going to get into that? I want to talk about the, the axis of opposition around the world and how they must, must see this, including the implications for a standoff that is near and dear to your heart and mine, which is, of course, China and Taiwan, but just on Cuba. Do you think we know that the Cuban regime was propped up by the oil from Venezuela and that it's already, it's a decrepit disaster of a government and has been for a long time, but increasingly now it's decrepit and just pathetic? Right. It's there's no there's no hiding from the reality of what they've done to their island and everything else. What do you think the smart next steps look like from the US Side to continue on with the win streak here that we have in Venezuela as it pertains to Cuba? What. What should we do? What could we do?

B (11:08)

Well, first, we need to finish through to something that resembles a positive, stable outcome in Venezuela. I think a real transition where there's a completely different relationship with the United States, where exiles feel safe to return. Then that, I think, sets an extremely dangerous precedent for the Cuban regime to stay in power, because there are a lot of Cubans that would like to be able to go back. And a lot of people living in Cuba know that if those people came back, they're bringing wealth, entrepreneurship, opportunity, ties to the rest of the world that have been denied them for generations. They know that the economic legitimacy of that is very, very powerful. If they see that turn in Venezuela decisively, that is, I think, the single best down payment we make. But there's already been elections in Latin America that are starting to turn our way. Chile's had an election. We already have the very famous Malay in Argentina. We have some Central American leaders who have ruffled liberal feathers in the United States by showing that they're ready to crack down on crime and get serious about a positive relationship with the United States. I think the next move with regard to Mexico is going to have a real strong signal sent to Cuba and other parts of the region. And frankly, Canada should wake up a bit, given that Canada has rested on its laurels that we are dependent on energy from them. And if we have a new relationship with Venezuela, where that black gold is flowing into our markets and refineries, we're less dependent on Canada. And we can have a tougher negotiating position. And they'll kick themselves for not seeing the XL pipeline through.

A (13:02)

I think we find the headline for this podcast coming out of nowhere here, but I like it. Watch your ass, Canada says Steve.

B (13:10)

Exactly.

A (13:12)

You better, you better. You better check yourself. Canada. That's right. Forget about Russia and China. It's Canada that needs to learn. Anyway. We'll come back into that, actually, because I do want to know, in seriousness, what you think about Russia, China, and others who are observing this situation. But our sponsor here is Birch Gold Group. A new year means new financial goals, like making sure your savings are secure and diversified. So my question for all of you is, will you take my advice and reach out to Birch Gold Group? I've already purchased gold from them myself. I've got their gold in my safe. They've got gold coins, gold bars and they have a very good educational approach to this. They want you as an investor to understand a long term gold thesis and why it is sound. Birch Gold Group truly believes every American should own some physical gold until January 30th. If you're a first time gold buyer, Birch Gold is offering a rebate of up to $10,000 on qualifying purchases. Claim eligibility, start the process. Text my name Buck Do 989898 Birchgold can help you roll existing IRA or 401k into an IRA in gold and you're still eligible for a rebate of up to $10,000. Make right now your first time to buy gold and take advantage of a Rebate up to $10,000 when you buy by January 30th. Text the name Buck B U C K to 9898 98. Claim your eligibility today. Text Buck to 98. 9898 all right Mr. Yates, it's like a little bit of around the horn here. Responses, changes, strategic setbacks or advantages when it comes to Venezuela. So let's start with, let's start with what Russia sees out of this, if anything.

B (14:41)

Well number one, I'd say a lot of mostly liberal commentators made the mistake of imagining that Putin or Xi Jinping or any of these guys really care at all about the international law or the United Nations. It's basically a forum for them to bloviate. After all, Russia chaired the emergency meeting on the invasion of Ukraine. That's how useful and relevant that for forum is. And so they'll agitate a bit. I don't think it changes a lot of Moscow's calculation with regard to the offerings on the ceasefire with Ukraine other than President Trump does burnish his reputation of look, I'm willing to sit down and be open to a deal but you better freaking make it drag it along with me. And I am not afraid to use leverage and power at my discretion and and you just might feel it. So if there's a way to change Putin's calculus, maybe that's in there but I wouldn't give that heavy weight. But I think that this really did hit at China's calculations in some more significant ways. If you look at what the administration has done, the designation of the cartels as terrorist organizations, those cartels have been the primary distributors and money laundering organizations for the fentanyl trade that China's been involved in, that's ding. Number one, we went after their role in The Panama Canal. That project is incomplete, but at least planted the flag. That was the first place that Secretary Rubio went as Secretary of State. Very different trajectory from his predecessors, but it planted the flag in our hemisphere at a really strategic place. The Chinese thought they were having some advantage in this Venezuela move. China has been using technical and strategic advantage. They want to be able to have diversified oil supply. They like having a base of operation that's close to the US and can kind of muck around in our hood. And they have done so. And so really in some ways it's degraded some of the leverage and disruption options that China might have had if the balloon were to go up in the Taiwan Straits where they might have pressured us to worry more about our near abroad and pull back from supporting people in the first island chain of Asia.

A (16:56)

Almost seems remarkable, I think, when people understand how much this, the oil that was going out, obviously Cuba is very close by and so that you can understand how that relationship comes about. You got two commies that are a short boat ride apart, but that Russia, China, Iran are all involved in oil buying and oil access. When it comes to Venezuela, I think that seems counterintuitive, especially in the case of Russia, which has tremendous oil reserves itself, but it's fungible, it's global, it's an asset. And they're able to buy it because they don't care about our sanctions. Right. They buy it at cut rate prices.

B (17:40)

Yeah. And that's kind of the point is that number one, Venezuela has a much larger proven supply than people remember. Somehow it's just sort of forgotten as an OPEC member, but has a very substantial proven reserve. And the other thing is it's been critical to any form of sanctions busting, whether it's Iran, Russia or China. When sanctions are threatened or imposed, our more cooperative allies like Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates and others will occasionally pull back from the closeness of relations with those that have gotten themselves in trouble. Venezuela was operating with its ghost fleet on the high seas, which I think is the definition of piracy and why we have navies. But it was the sanctions busting kind of component of this, to diversify that supply that mattered. It mattered so much to China that they were looking at digging an alternative to the Panama Canal through another isthmus in Central America in order to have total control in time of crisis. So yes, it was much more important to our adversaries than people thought.

A (18:50)

Steve Yates, everybody, he's at the Heritage Foundation. Follow him on social media on X. And Mr. Yates, we'll be talking to you again soon.

B (18:58)

Thanks very much, Buck. Pleasure.

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A (19:30)

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